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Features AL MVP: Pedroia wins

This thread now contains news of the announcement of the 2008 American League Most Valuable Player. Dustin Pedroia? A-Rod? Morneau or Mauer? Carlos Quentin? Josh Hamilton? Francisco Rodriguez? Cliff Lee?

Update: Pedroia wins

Who should have won? And why?



Sixteen first-place ballots went to Pedroia; Justin Morneau came in second with seven first-place ballots, then Youkilis with two first-place votes, Mauer also with two, Quentin with no first-place votes, and K-Rod with one first-place ballot. 

No Jays received votes.
Posted by Mick Doherty on Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 10:51 AM EST.
AL MVP: Pedroia wins | 84 comments | Create New Account
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Greg - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 11:02 AM EST (#194185) #

Not sure if it's appropriate here
But Gammons is saying Milton Bradley is the Jays priority this off-season

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3709231&name=gammons_peter

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John Northey - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 11:05 AM EST (#194186) #
Well, RBI leader Hamilton (304/371/530 will get plenty of votes I'm sure despite being on a team over 20 games out of first.  Miguel Cabrera, despite leading in HR, won't be top 5 due to high expectations and poor early results (finished at 292/349/537 which is better than I thought he did).  Don't know why Mauer is not liked by the writers, but he isn't so despite a batting title and being a catcher he won't win either and might not be top 5 (328/413/451).  Carlos Quinton will get some love from the voters (288/394/571 100 RBI and 1 HR shy of leading) but no trophy.  Can't see K-Rod getting it.

I'm betting on Pedroia getting it.  He is 'clutch' and hit 326/376/493 at 2B for a playoff team that lost Manny mid-season - led in doubles and runs scored which isn't normally a factor but could be used to justify (he almost won the batting tile and hit lots of doubles, what a leader!).  Seems dumb to me, but that's what I expect.  Hamilton might win instead though thanks to the RBI's and storyline.  Oh, and A-Rod won't get a single first place vote despite being #2 in OPS.
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Greg - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 11:17 AM EST (#194188) #
I can see Pedroia getting it because in the last month of the season it seemed like the writers were talking about 3 candidates
Quentin, Pedroia and Morneau (god knows why Mauer wasn't part of the discussion)

But then Quentin got hurt and Morneau didn't make the playoffs...leaving Pedroia

If I had a vote I'd give it to Sizemore
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Chuck - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 11:27 AM EST (#194190) #

RBI leader Hamilton (304/371/530 will get plenty of votes I'm sure despite being on a team over 20 games out of first

Yes, but he did make the mistake of having a better first half than second half. And everyone knows that games in the second half count more than those in the first half. And games in September? They count a jillion times more than the rest of the season.

Don't know why Mauer is not liked by the writers

HR. RBI. These are a manly man's stats. Don't bore us with OBP. He may as well be wearing a dress.

Can't see K-Rod getting it

It'll be interesting to see if he does the Lidge thing. There are two writers in Anaheim with no one else to vote for.

I'm betting on Pedroia getting it.

I am betting you're right. Various members of the BBWAA floated that trial balloon in August to guage fan and media reaction, and it seemed favourable. So I think it will happen.

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hugo - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 11:50 AM EST (#194191) #
I voted for Sizemore in the SB Nation awards, with Mauer second and a homer vote for Doc third. But I will be very surprised if Pedroia doesn't win.
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John Northey - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 12:57 PM EST (#194194) #
Sizemore I'd think has no chance of winning.  Played for a non-playoff team (81-81), a home run hitter with under 100 RBI's (yeah, yeah, he is a leadoff hitter but these are writers we are talking about), and most damaging of all a 268 batting average.  Well, damaging for writers that is.  No shot, will be lucky to get top 5.
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Mike D - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 01:33 PM EST (#194196) #

Food for thought:

Plate appearances vs Yankees (104 team ERA+):  Pedroia 76, Sizemore 22, Mauer 31

Plate appearances vs Angels (111 team ERA+):  Pedroia 42, Sizemore 46, Mauer 33

Plate appearances vs White Sox (111 team ERA+):  Pedroia 33, Sizemore 85, Mauer 72

Plate appearances vs Red Sox (115 team ERA+):  Pedroia 0, Sizemore 29, Mauer 30

Plate appearances vs Rays (116 team ERA+):  Pedroia 82, Sizemore 27, Mauer 26

Plate appearances vs Blue Jays (122 team ERA+):  Pedroia 79, Sizemore 33, Mauer 23

Total vs top 6 staffs:  Pedroia 312, Sizemore 242, Mauer 215

 

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hugo - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 01:43 PM EST (#194197) #
I agree, I very much doubt he'll be in the top 5.
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John Northey - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 02:04 PM EST (#194198) #
Figured everyone would want the update before most news organizations.  Gotta love the ugly green site.  Shame that no Jays got a 'pity vote' though.  Pity votes (one 10th place only) went to Raul Ibanez, Ian Kinsler, Ichiro Suzuki, and Mark Teixeira.
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John Northey - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 02:08 PM EST (#194199) #
Huh.  Just noticed that Pedroia only was named on 27 ballots.  Morneau was on all 28, as was Youkilis.  No others made it onto all ballots.
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seeyou - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 02:17 PM EST (#194200) #
Latest with A.J.: it appears that the Yankees are set to offer him a 5-year deal worth $80(!) million.

This is probably the worst case scenario for the Jays because:
1.  There's no way J.P. matches $16 million per year, and I think it's unlikely anyone else will either.

2.  The first round compensatory pick we were consoling ourselves with just turned into a second rounder if the Yankees also sign Sabathia, or a third rounder if they sign Sabathia and Teixeira.

3.  We have to watch A.J. pitch against the Jays a lot over the next five years, and our division just got even harder to., compete in.

I'm hoping this rumour isn't true, and if it is that A.J. somehow decides to go somewhere else, but I'm thinking neither of these are likely.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 02:27 PM EST (#194202) #
Pedroia, Sizemore and Mauer would have been my top three, and I can see reasonable arguments for all three, or even at the outside, Youkilis, Quentin or Markakis.  The best hitters in the league played at undemanding positions, and evaluating defense and positional adjustments is subject to more disagreement.
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John Northey - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 03:04 PM EST (#194203) #
Well, Sizemore didn't do so well.  He came in 10th.  Like I said, HR hitter who bats leadoff thus is 'worthless' to many writers.  15 put him on their ballot though, so at least 1/2 of the writers know he was worth something but 6th was as high as anyone put him.

Worst result for someone voted...
1st or 2nd: Francisco Rodriguez - 6th place
3rd: Carlos Pena - 9th place
4th: Cliff Lee - 12th place
5th: Jason Bartlett - 18th place (his only vote)
6th or 7th: Milton Bradley - 17th place
8th: Mike Mussina - 19th place his only vote
9th: Aubrey Huff - 16th place (a 6th, 2 9th, and a 10th)
10th: the guys I listed earlier (dead last tie for 4).

So the OPS leader for the AL came in 17th place with only 2 voters seeing him as worthwhile.  Bit surprising as I'd have thought more writers had decided that OPS was worthwhile thus would've tossed a 9th or 10th place vote his way.  Hamilton coming in 7th was a shock to me as RBI's normally get a guy a lot more votes than that.
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Impossibles - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 03:21 PM EST (#194204) #

I'm surprised AJ is being courted by the Yanks.  He doesn't seem like a Yankee type player.  He had trouble with the Toronto media, he'll have nothing but trouble once he goes on one of his 'my arm feels funny' DL stints.

Maybe his old buddy Carl Pavano told him NY was a great place to spend DL holidays in.

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Dave Rutt - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 03:37 PM EST (#194205) #

The result is similar to the NL MVP for me - while some of the high finishers disgust me (like K-Rod getting by far the most points among pitchers and Morneau beating Mauer), I'm happy with the winner. Pedroia isn't as much of a slam dunk as Pujols, but he's worthy, as were a few others who have been mentioned in this thread already. Congrats Dustin! And a much smaller congrats to the BBWAA for doing just fine in MVP voting this year.

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westcoast dude - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 03:44 PM EST (#194206) #

Drivin'  home this evening, I coulda sworn we had it all worked out, You had this boy believin', Way beyond a shadow of a doubt, Then I heard it on the street, I heard you might have found somebody new...

I took it all for granted but how was I to know that you'd be letting go.  Now it cuts like a knife.

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John Northey - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 03:57 PM EST (#194207) #
AJ in Yankee pinstripes could be entertaining.  The media, one would think, would tear him apart within 24 hours if it took that long.  Odds are if anyone is in eyeshot of the Yankee dollars that AJ would go there instead, even if it is the Mets instead (pressure a little less there) with the exception of Boston where the pressure might be even higher and Philly where they boo Santa Claus. 

AJ's decision I suspect will be involving 3 things - money, location (close to Baltimore as possible), and pressure.  If Washington came up with a solid offer I'd bet on him going there as it would be very low pressure and very close to home.  He already has a WS ring from his Florida days so odds are that won't be a driving force for him.
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92-93 - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 04:21 PM EST (#194208) #
Dustin Pedroia .326/.376/.493 118r 17hr 83rbi
Chase Utley .292/.380/.535 113r 33hr 104rbi

If someone can explain to me how one finishes 1st in MVP voting and the other 14th I'd love to hear it. Is there anything Pedroia is better in than Utley, other than maybe SB efficiency (and Utley runs very well too)?
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Mike D - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 04:47 PM EST (#194209) #

If someone can explain to me how one finishes 1st in MVP voting and the other 14th I'd love to hear it. Is there anything Pedroia is better in than Utley, other than maybe SB efficiency (and Utley runs very well too)?

The short answer is that there were no Berkman/Pujols type seasons in the AL this year.  Pedroia was first in the AL in WARP, and would have been tied for 6th in the NL.

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Jevant - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 04:55 PM EST (#194210) #
Yes, please.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 04:57 PM EST (#194211) #
That's part of it, Mike D.  I am afraid that there is another less appealing reason for the decision-making.  The major siphons for the Philadelphia and Boston votes respectively were Ryan Howard and Kevin Youkilis.  Even though Youkilis clearly had the better season, Howard got much more of the team MVP vote, likely because of his superior HR and RBI totals.  Sigh.

Pedroia and Utley are both great players, who had great seasons in 2008.  It is true that Albert Pujols had a better season than either. 

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John Northey - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 06:26 PM EST (#194212) #
An interesting side note... Roy Halladay, according to Baseball Prospectus, was #3 in WARP this year yet did not get even a token 10th place vote.  Seems odd for a 20 game winner who is viewed as clutch and as the key player on his team to not even get a token vote, even with the Jays coming in 4th and Cliff Lee viewed as having the better year by many.

Also odd, from Baseball Prospectus is a listing of the top 3 WARP all being pitchers (Lee/Rivera/Halladay in order) followed by the guy who won, Mauer, A-Rod, then ... Mike Mussina?!?  Seems like something was a bit off here as a 132 ERA+ mixed with 200 IP shouldn't be that high I'd think.  Seems like WARP is listing pitchers as increasingly valuable which may be true but just catches me as a bit odd.
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greenfrog - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 06:51 PM EST (#194213) #
It might have something to do with the Jays being a perennial also-ran. If the Jays had finished 1st in the division, Halladay would likely have received some votes.
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Glevin - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 08:10 PM EST (#194214) #
I don't like Pedroia winning at all. First of all, he clearly was not the most valuable player this year. The Red Sox would have made the playoffs without him and he really got hot when they had basically clinched the playoffs anyway. However, we all know that writers only have two-month memories. He was the fifth best hitter on his own team. this is hardly an all-time bad vote, but it was a bad choice.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 08:43 PM EST (#194215) #
John Northey,

BP uses a very low replacement level for starting pitchers.  So, for instance, Kevin Youkilis has many more runs above average (batting plus fielding) than Mussina, but somewhat fewer runs above replacement.  I don't necessarily disagree with this.  An average starting pitcher who throws 200 innings has, in my view, considerably more value than an average first baseman who has 650 PAs.  A 132 ERA+ may not sound like much, but even a 100 ERA+ has a lot of value. Whether the replacement level for starting pitchers is as low as BP has it, is open to debate.

BP's fielding measures have Grady Sizemore as a very poor defensive centerfielder. There is, to put it kindly, no consensus that this is accurate.



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Wildrose - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 09:29 PM EST (#194216) #
I would have voted for Sizemore myself, but certainly Pedroia was in the equation, especially if your the type that feels the MVP must be from a winning team. This chart shows how much Pujols was ahead when you consider defence , offence  and positional adjustment  for the N.L. MVP.

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greenfrog - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 10:16 PM EST (#194218) #
Pujols is an *amazing* player. 28 years old, with a career line of 334/425/624 (OPS+ 170) and 319 HR. His numbers this year were from another planet (planet Pujols?). And a Gold Glove winner to boot. Here are his comps through age 28 (courtesy of Baseball Reference):

1. Jimmie Foxx
2. Hank Aaron
3. Frank Robinson
4. Lou Gehrig
5. Ken Griffey
6. Vladimir Guerrero
7. Mickey Mantle
8. Joe DiMaggio
9. Juan Gonzalez
10. Mel Ott

Yeah, I'd say he's doing all right.
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perlhack - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 10:26 PM EST (#194219) #
Google and Life Magazine have scanned and released a portion of LIFE's archival photography, some of them baseball-related. Enjoy!
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Mike Green - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 10:32 PM EST (#194220) #
A few comments about Albert Pujols:

1. The Cardinals are one of baseball's signature franchises.  Their greatest player ever is Stan Musial.  It is possible  that Pujols will surpass Stan the Man by the time he is done.

2. The greatest first basemen ever are Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx. It is possible that he will pass both of them too by the time he is done.

3. Supposing that Barry Bonds is out of the discussion due to PED issues, it seems to me that the discussion about the best player of the aughts comes down to A-Rod and Pujols, with Albert holding the edge.  I'd want to think about that one some more though.  A-Rod did have a helluva year in 2000, and he is playing in the tougher league. 

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Mike Green - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 10:43 PM EST (#194221) #
Thanks, perlback.  There are a couple of great shots of Mickey Mantle and one of Frank Howard in 1959.  The New York Times has a fabulous one of Mickey in 1956.
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Mylegacy - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 01:21 AM EST (#194224) #
That little short sh*t on Boston, their 2nd baseman - I hate him! But the kid can play ball.

Today on the Jay's MLB site JP was saying the cupboard is bare and with the economy cliff diving and the Canadian Peso playing dead...that we're no longer interested in Expensive Agents or even Free Agents. Looks like it's a trade(s) or "in house."

So (among a zillion other things) - I'd REALLY like to try Patterson in a platoon at DH against lefties - the kid KILLS 'EM.

I'm going to go to the World baseball games in TO in March - anyone else thinking about it?

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VBF - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 01:42 AM EST (#194225) #
Yes. I purchased the six game strip for the 100 level outfield and will likely upgrade via some online ticket agency for the Canada games. It will be the most exciting baseball I've ever witnessed and probably will witness for the foreseeable future.

It's also the *perfect* opportunity for Toronto to represent itself as a baseball loving city (whether or not it is the case).

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lexomatic - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 08:08 AM EST (#194226) #
Seeing as this relates to the MVP vote. I'd like to take this opportunity to rant about Richard Griffin's (of the Star) complete lack of understanding of baseball. I was reading yesterday's paper with the MVP vote preview and saw a few things that just made me want to contact the bbwaa and request he not be allowed to vote for any award (he's been writing for so long i'm assuming he has a vote.) Here are some of the offending examples... The article is intitled "Morneau may profit from Red Sox Split".
The Rays were like the Jays in that they were carried to the top by the quality of their pitching and the depth of their bullpen. The difference was that Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton were legitimate MVP candidates.

B.J. ? really? he of the 107 ops+?
Second baseman Dustin Pedroia should be Boston's leading candidate because he changed their image with his youthful exuberence as a table-setter.....

So this means Willi Bloomquist is an MVP candidate every year right?
With two wins besides record save total, directly affected 64 of Angels' 100 wins

for comparison's sake... http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgin1=guerrvl01&t=b&year=2008 Vladi got a run or rbi in 61 of the Angel's 100 wins... could those wins be had without those runs? maybe. I'm not going to try and break down when and how those runs scored, or when K-Rod came into the game etc.
Griffin also refers to Morneau as "Mr. Consistency" and he scored a run or got an rbi in 65 of the Twins' wins and 35 of their losses... so what?
Seriously.. does he get paid by the word?
/endrant
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lexomatic - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 08:10 AM EST (#194227) #
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/Baseball/article/538642

looks like i'm not the only person who really took issue with this.
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FisherCat - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 08:19 AM EST (#194228) #

I don't like Pedroia winning at all. First of all, he clearly was not the most valuable player this year. The Red Sox would have made the playoffs without him and he really got hot when they had basically clinched the playoffs anyway. However, we all know that writers only have two-month memories. He was the fifth best hitter on his own team. this is hardly an all-time bad vote, but it was a bad choice.

I agree with the 1st sentence, but living in the Boston area I unfortunately saw enough Sox games to disagree with the 3rd sentence.  The thing that really frustrates me as a Jays' fan is that after the 2006 season (maybe even after 07?) we arguably had the best up & coming 2nd baseman in the AL East.  Now with Hill's uncertain health, he might be the weakest 2B in the East.

It's things like this that frustrate me, the Jays' one promising position player of the last 4 years, besides Rios, and the Sox STILL outdo them w/Pedroia!!

I know numbers and such are used to make decisions of whether to fire or keep GMs, but sometimes you gotta go with your gut.  And my gut says that karma is just not with the JP regime.  I mean everytime he signs anyone to a significant contract, their performance seems to instantly dive (due to injury or otherwise) {see Hinske, Wells, Hill, Rios, Thomas, etc}.

OK sorry for the venting, but just seeing that little dirtbag Pedroia win the MVP rubs salt in all our Blue Jay wounds.

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Gerry - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 09:06 AM EST (#194233) #
Trying to fix the bolding.
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Wildrose - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 09:54 AM EST (#194234) #
I'm going to go to the World baseball games in TO in March - anyone else thinking about it?

Looks like Canada has discovered another " found Canadian".

Greg Hamilton has been putting Team Canada teams together since 1999.
When he gets beyond the Canadian National Junior Team -- World Cup qualifier, Olympic qualifier, Olympics and World Baseball Classic -- one position remains a problem.
It’s two words or word depending upon your style:
Short stop. Or shortstop.
When the second WBC takes place Saturday, March 7 with Team Canada facing Team USA at the Rogers Centre shortstop should not be a worry.
All the paperwork has been finalized so Chris Barnwell (Shelburne, N.S.) will be able to play.

Given Danny Klassen's physical problems , Barnwell could help ( and he hits right handed to boot). Still no word if they've naturalized Scott Campbell yet ( his  grandmother is from Vancouver).

 

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Wildrose - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 11:01 AM EST (#194236) #
Sky Kalkman , a guy who  in many ways is becoming my favorite internet based baseball writer chips in with a good analysis of the A.L.  MVP discussion.

Some people feel the MVP should simply go to the best player, others feel it should award the best player who helps his team win.  Still others  feel it should include or exclude pitchers as well. Sky looks at the MVP race using WPA, which measures overall offensive output  and includes  a "clutch hitting" component.

I think he covers all the different  viewpoints quite well.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 11:33 AM EST (#194237) #
Personally, I am of the view that WPA is a very marginally useful tool for evaluating who was the most valuable player in a season.  Take Mark Teixeira.  He began the season in the weaker league and had most of his work there, and was the second best player on his club (behind McCann).  On July 30, he was traded to the Angels who led by 10.5 games at that point.  He went 0-4 on the 30th, the Angels won 9-2 and were up by 11.5 games and the season was over.  WPA measures the importance of Teixeira's offensive contributions in the context of winning games, but not in terms of their importance to a season.  Defence is not a part of WPA at all, and in trying to add defence to WPA measures of offence, you're looking at two different scales altogether. 

Teixeira created 73 runs and made 288 outs in the weaker league, and created 50 runs and made 133 outs in the stronger league.  Youkilis created 121 runs and made 395 outs in the stronger league.  They are both very good fielders.  How one deals with split seasons is not clear, but even if you don't take a league discount, Youkilis probably had the better season. 

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Glevin - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 12:49 PM EST (#194238) #
The Red Sox traded Coco Crisp for Ramon Ramirez. I suspect they feel that the 4th OFer roll can be easily filled via free agency and this frees them up to trade Masterson for a catcher.
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zeppelinkm - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 12:51 PM EST (#194239) #

I was hoping Manny would receive some votes for the AL MVP. Has anyone ever placed on both the AL and NL MVP ballots in the same year before?

 

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Greg - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 01:19 PM EST (#194240) #
Not answering your question at all
But I remember Willie McGee won the NL batting title despite being traded to the AL partway through the season in 1990
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Chuck - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 01:24 PM EST (#194241) #
If anyone is currently finding themselves in a restful, unagitated state, don't do what I just did. I visited BTF which has numerous threads to BBWAA writers defending their voting. Un-frickin-fathomable what passes for reason and logic.
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zeppelinkm - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 01:27 PM EST (#194242) #

Chuck: After I read the article you linked to at the top of this thread, I've given up on the BBWAA voters. A guy who goes to town to say how Albert Pujols was totally the wrong pick and how anyone who thinks Howard was less valuable is silly, REALLY GRINDS MY GEARS!

OK, maybe it's not fair to condemn them all, but a good portion of them? I can live with that.

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Mick Doherty - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 02:14 PM EST (#194243) #

But I remember Willie McGee won the NL batting title despite being traded to the AL partway through the season in 1990.

True, but he had more than the required 502 plate appearances in the National League before the trade. He would have won the title if he'd broken his leg the same day he was traded, so in this case, it's all about settled rules and standards.

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Mike Green - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 02:45 PM EST (#194244) #
Chuck,

In his Hall of Names pieces, Mick always places one asterisk next to All-Stars and two next to Hall of Famers.  In my ignorance, I once assumed that it was a form of recognition, but now I know that Mick was slyly indicating his bemusement with the writers' selections.  Always one step ahead of the curve.

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Mike Green - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 04:29 PM EST (#194245) #
The Yankees' pursuit of Sabathia and Burnett is interesting (if perhaps ill-advised).  You wouldn't think that Sabathia's projection would be very good, but his BBRef comps are impressive. The 4 closest comps are Greg Maddux, Dennis Eckersley, Lefty Gomez and Steve Carlton.

None of them are 6'7" and 250 lbs though.  Somehow this got me thinking of Chuck Finley.  The sponsorship note from Rob (any relation to the Bauxite?) for Finley is cool.
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Wildrose - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 04:36 PM EST (#194246) #
How one deals with split seasons is not clear, but even if you don't take a league discount, Youkilis probably had the better season. 

I note in his methodology he addresses this by using a different replacement level  for the different leagues although detailing split seasons can be tricky.  Youkilis  using the combined BIS and STATS defensive data was +4 and Teixeira +21, that's a substantial difference.

I'm not a big WPA guy and Kalkman does provide the raw production numbers in his last list ( as well as he integrates pitchers into  the discussion). They almost need  to tighten up the definition of the   MVP award . I tend to look at it as the" best player" award, many take a different tack and concentrate on the playoff value of  this  award.  Personally I've come around to excluding pitchers for this hardware as they have their own system of recognition-the Cy Young.
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Wildrose - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 04:42 PM EST (#194247) #
The Yankees' pursuit of Sabathia and Burnett is interesting

Also interesting is that the Red Sox have joined the fray.

The possibility exists that Boston is now getting involved as a ploy to drive up the price on Burnett for his other suitors -- which include three American League East rivals. But Newsday reported Tuesday that the Red Sox are now "fully engaged,'' and a source told ESPN.com that the team considers Burnett a "priority.''
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Petey Baseball - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 06:37 PM EST (#194248) #
Anything can happen at the Winter Meetings, but the way this off-season is going, this may truly be the quietest November-March for this ballclub that I can remember. I can't say I blame J.P. for not wanting to "get involved" with anyone else other than Burnett to a certain point. Bradley is interesting, but giving a four year deal to a DH who has really only had one good/healthy season is silly when you have two younger, cheaper options in Snider and Lind.  The question to me is, can you upgrade on John McDonald and Jose Bautista? Johnny Mac simply doesn't hit enough to warrant a spot on the '09 squad, and I think we can upgrade the bench a little to give Cito some more options. It will be interesting to see how we approach the candidates to fill out the 21-25 spots on our roster, but it`ll be a long time before we can be certain who can make a difference in `09.
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Ron - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 07:11 PM EST (#194250) #
Congrats to Mike "Jerk" Mussina on a wonderful career. Has he done enough to warrant being inducted into the Hall Of Fame? The shiny 20 win total from last year should help his cause but was he ever one of the elite pitchers during his playing days? I'm not so sure.
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SheldonL - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 08:16 PM EST (#194251) #
I'm a rather young baseball fan (just 21) but I've been deeply immersed in it since about 2000 (age 13) and to me, 300 wins and all-star teams, while nice stats, are rather meaningless.

To me, Halladay is the epitomy of what a Hall-of-Fame pitcher should be! Great stats, perennial Cy Young candidate, but more importantly incredibly dominant.

Just perusing Mussina's stats, his seasons from '94 to 2003 were quite brilliant save for '96. He was in the top 6 in Cy Young voting 8 times according to Wikipedia. If i had a vote, he'd get it for being Hall-of-Fame worthy.
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Flex - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 08:47 PM EST (#194252) #
I'd agree that all-star games are meaningless. But 300 wins means consistent achievement over a very long career. Consider that Halladay in his ten-year span of excellence has amassed 131 wins.

I know the stats argument, and say what you will about the value of the won-lost record for a pitcher, 300 wins is still far from meaningless.
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timpinder - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 09:33 PM EST (#194253) #

Petey,

I think it's a little too early to say that this will be a quiet off-season for the Jays.  I actually think that when the dust settles this might be one of the busiest!  I wouldn't be surprised if Overbay and Ryan were in different uniforms to start the season and the Jays introduced a new SS, DH and SP on opening day.  They probably aren't going to be active on the big name free agents like Tex, Sabathia and Manny, but I think we might see a couple of big trades and some 2nd tier free agents signed.  Just a hunch.

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John Northey - Wednesday, November 19 2008 @ 10:38 PM EST (#194254) #
Woohoo! Glad to see the end of Mussina. His total lack of class during his career - from warming up in the bullpen at the end of the All-Star game in 93 to complaining about Tom Cheek's ceremony - makes me hope the writers view him as a 'close but no cigar' for the HOF. I really, really, really wanted him to end with 19 wins this past season just to give the voters that one extra element to vote against him with.

In truth, he was a HOF talent. 270 wins, 123 ERA+, 2007 was his only time not qualifying for the ERA title outside of his rookie year, 9 times getting votes for the Cy Young award. What is odd is how he has so little black ink - just 15 which is tied with Cliff Lee and tied or behind ex-Jays and never to be HOF'ers Dave Stieb (17), Jimmy Key (15), David Cone (19), Dave Stewart (19), Jack Morris (20), David Wells (24) and current Jay Roy Halladay (24). Not to mention guys who fought to get in like Phil Niekro (43). FYI: Roger Clemens is at 100, Randy Johnson 96, Greg Maddux 87, Pedro Martinez 55, Johan Santana 45, Curt Schilling 42, John Smoltz 34, Tom Glavine 29, Jake Pevey 20, Kevin Brown 19, Brandon Webb 17, Livan Hernandez 15.

Black ink is a good sign of dominance - of being the best of the guys around you in at least one category. Moose was a steady guy who was solid but never spectacular. His peak ERA+ was 163 (1994), cracking 150 a total of just 2 times - the same number of times Juan Guzman did (Roy has done it 3 times).

If you want stable boring pitchers in the HOF then Moose is your guy. If you like the HOF to be more about peak than consistency then he isn't.
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Petey Baseball - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 12:36 AM EST (#194255) #

         You're probably right tim. We've been told before it would be a quiet off-season and were met with some trades and signings. 

 Playing the role of hitting guru who is hopelessly starved for baseball by watching old Blue Jays footage
     
    Rolen was a different hitter the last 4 weeks of the season, as his swing adjustments and lowering of the shoulder were well documented (and as statistics of course showed). His moonshoots off a pair of lefty's in particular (Petitte on the 31st of August and Clayton Richard on the 10th of September) were indicative of some footage I watched of him in '05.  In those videos, his hands were clearly lowered to where they are (or were) in the last six weeks of '08. 
 
   Looking at Overbay's at bats from July onward, Rance Mulliniks would be correct: Lyle definitley got rid of a hitch very prevalent in his stance from the first half.  Some video from his very first game as a Jay against the Twins on Opening Day '06 also sees Overbay striding to the ball in one motion, without a small hesitation during the windup of the pitcher.  Without sounding like a hitting guru, (although I still play competitive baseball to this day) I'd say there is reason for optimism in '09 because the stances have "regressed" back to their more productive selves.  Overbay in particular finally started to drive the ball with authority to the opposite field in the last 60 or so games, and Rolen has lowered his hands back to where they were four years ago and was pulling the ball in a similar authoratative fashion.
                    
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Mylegacy - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 01:42 AM EST (#194256) #
Petey Baseball - I feel so much better. Rolen becomes Babe Ruth and Overbay becomes Paul O'Neill.

Now if only Halladay can clone himself four more times we'd have a rotation!

Gonna be a LONG summer! Hope some of the kids make it interesting.

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92-93 - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 01:55 AM EST (#194257) #
I'm fairly certain we'd only need 3 more Docs.
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Mylegacy - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 02:17 AM EST (#194258) #
Watch every one of Doc's starts from now to the end of his career - tape a bunch of them to watch again and again - his kind does not come around often. He's one Doc I like to visit - even when I'm feeling fine!
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lexomatic - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 07:37 AM EST (#194259) #
But I remember Willie McGee won the NL batting title despite being traded to the AL partway through the season in 1990.
True, but he had more than the required 502 plate appearances in the National League before the trade. He would have won the title if he'd broken his leg the same day he was traded, so in this case, it's all about settled rules and standards.
Also if he hadn't finished with the 502 PA, a few times in the past someone has won by adding a bunch of 0-fers to their line.. if they still come out on top then they win. i think that happened to Cobb over Lajoie or Cobb vs T. Speaker waaaay back when and maybe a few other times but I don't remember. I forget if it's actually a rule or just a practice.
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John Northey - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 08:31 AM EST (#194260) #
For those who want to be scared in a bad way check Doc's top 10 comparable players on Baseball-Reference. From age 32 on, for the retired non-Mussina pitchers the average is 19 wins and 20 losses for the rest of their career. Of his top 10 only 3 cracked 30 more wins - Mussina (123) and Pettitte (66) and John Candelaria (46). Ugh. Also still active are Tim Hudson and Kevin Millwood.

Luckily of the 10 the highest career ERA+ through age 31 is Mussina at 129 while Roy is at 131. The only other one over 120 is Tim Hudson who was fairly effective at 32 last year (134 ERA+ over just 142 IP).

I think Roy is very different from the rest, but that is scary.
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KL - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 08:51 AM EST (#194261) #
A not-so-scary Halladayism: Since 2002, his average season is 16-7 with an ERA in the 3.30 range, which includes the injured years of 2004 and 2005. If you take those out, he's averaged 19-7 with an ERA in the low 3's. I had no idea how *good* he was until I procrastinated at work this morning. He'll trump Mussina's career with eight more seasons of 16-7/3.30, but chances are, he'll have a couple better ones. He seems durable enough and methinks he's only on the tailend of his prime.
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Mike Green - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 10:48 AM EST (#194262) #
Halladay is different in many ways from all of his BBRef comps, except for Mussina, and he has been better than all of them.  Personally, I don't think that his titanic struggles at age 23 have much to do with his reasonable projection. If you look at how he has performed from age 24-31, there are very few who have been as superb as he has.  Jim Palmer and Juan Marichal come to mind.  Marichal's struggles after age 31, and Palmer's fade after age 32, are a reminder that there is no guarantee at all with pitchers, but Halladay has less mileage on his arm than these two greats, and so I think that he is likely got another 1000 very good innings in him.
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Mike Green - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 10:50 AM EST (#194263) #
MLB.com has a headline "Ramirez ecstatic to join Red Sox", which caused me a double take before I realized.
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christaylor - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 12:14 PM EST (#194265) #
If wins are meaningless within a season what makes them more meaningful over a career? All 300 wins shows is that the pitcher pitched for a very long time for a lot of very good teams.

I don't fully believe this but I can't see where wins suddenly become meaningful over a career- the same problems with wins over a season is there over a career. I don't think 300 wins over a career is any more meaningful than 3500 IP.
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Chuck - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 12:25 PM EST (#194266) #
The argument for career wins suggests that luck balances out over such a long stretch. Of course, as you point out, it doesn't account for the quality of the team behind you. Better to have average luck for good teams than for bad ones. Just ask Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris.
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Glevin - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 02:52 PM EST (#194268) #
"I don't think 300 wins over a career is any more meaningful than 3500 IP."

Then you are in a minority. Every once in a while a not very good pitcher will fluke a 20-win season by overachieving while pitching for a good team. Now, in order to reach 300 wins, you need 15 seasons of 20 wins. That is, if you come up at say, 25, you need to win 20 games every year until you are 40.  I can't see any realistic scenario where a 300-game winner is not a HOFer.  12 non-dead ball pitchers have reached that plateau. Even Steve Carleton who is one of the more recent pitchers to reach the 300 win club, made 709 starts over his career. To put that in perspective, Halladay would need to make 35 starts a year (he made 33 this year) for the next 13 years. 300 wins means you were very good for a very long time.
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Mike Green - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 03:29 PM EST (#194269) #
300 wins is more significant than 3500 IP, for the simple reason that it is essentially impossible to garner 300 wins without throwing 3500 innings.  To illustrate, consider Jim Palmer.  Excellent pitcher, who spent his career with a team winning 95 games a year.  Palmer made 521 starts in his career (or the equivalent of 14.5 seasons of 36 starts), won 268 games and threw almost 4000 innings.  Realistically to win 300 games, you have to make almost 600 starts, and if you do that you'll make the 3500 inning mark, and to win half your starts, you have to be very, very good even if you are on a great club. 

There are pitchers like Bob Friend, Paul Derringer, Mickey Lolich, Charlie Hough and Jerry Reuss who threw 3500 innings and were merely good.  The only 20th century pitcher who won 300 games and wasn't great was Early Wynn (but he threw 4500 innings in so doing). 





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christaylor - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 03:57 PM EST (#194270) #
I don't fully disagree with what has been said (as I mentioned I didn't fully believe what I was saying, It is odd that 300 wins suddenly becomes meaningful when we'd all agree that a pitcher who wins 15 or fewer games in a season can easily be a better pitcher than one who won 20 or more).

Pitchers from the four-man rotation days are clearly going to have more IP, but I threw out the 3500 IP standard with recent history in mind - add 15-20% figure to figure for the 4 man standard for that era. Surely pitching a large number of IP is a necessary but not sufficient condition for winning 300 (as Mike Green points out) but I think an appropriately chosen IP standard and 300 wins give one the same information, namely that the pitcher was very good for a very long time. A refining of my point is this - is there truly any difference in the HOF worthiness of a 250 and 300 win pitcher? If not, why should 300 be considered so meaningful.

Blyleven is an excellent example - he was a better pitcher than more than few names in the 300 win club. I doubt many would disagree with that... yet the thinking that 300 wins defines the career of a HOF pitcher is precisely what has kept him out of the hall. Wins be it career or in a given season a lousy way to evaluate pitching.
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92-93 - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 04:05 PM EST (#194271) #
"2003...2006...2009? Will Wells be the Wells of the past in '09?"

I chuckled when I saw who sponsored Vernon's BR page. Our very own!
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Mike Green - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 04:14 PM EST (#194272) #
Oh yes.  Making 300 wins as some kind of minimum standard for Hall of Fame consideration is ridiculously stringent.  If you're looking at a starting pitcher from a career perspective (rather than someone like Koufax), you can probably start with ERA+ and innings pitched and then make necessary adjustments for quality of defence, unearned runs, pitcher defence, pitcher batting ability for NL pitchers, and the like in close cases.  If you want, you can even take into account propensity to win above (or below) expected taking into account runs allowed and run and bullpen support, in tough cases. 

The Hall of Merit people have done generally an excellent job on these things, although they do on average weight more to the peak/prime than to the career.

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John Northey - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 04:45 PM EST (#194273) #
I see 300 as not a required level, but a level that if you reach it you better be let in unless some extreme circumstances exist.  If a pitcher cannot get to 200 then odds are his career was too short unless something extreme happened again (such as with Koufax being untouchable for a few years).  The 200-300 window is where judgment becomes vital.

For 300 winners Early Wynn, generally viewed as least of the 300 game winners (post 1893 when the mound was shifted back to 60'6"), had a 107 ERA+, a Cy Young, 6 AS games, 8 times getting MVP ballots, 37 for black ink and 264 for gray (#15 all time).  This was a guy who was very good for a long time.  And that is about as weak as the 300 winners get.  Well, some argue Don Sutton with the 108 ERA+/8 black ink (even lower than Mussina)/240 gray (very good) with 4 AS games and no Cy Youngs, twice over 160 for ERA+ (just).  Generally these guys were just darn good for a darn long time.

In the 200-300 range you get a lot more weakness - guys like Gus Weyhing with a 102 ERA+ (6 years pre-1893), Jack Morris (105 ERA+), Jamie Moyer (106 ERA+ but who knows where he ends up).  Lots of guys in the 100-110 range (David Wells, Frank Tananna, etc.).  Joe Niekro was the highest win total I hit with a sub-100 ERA+ at 97 with 221 wins.  Lew Burdette (98-203) is the only other one I could find sub-100.  So this suggests that for a 300 game winner to not be at least an above average pitcher for 15-20 years you would need some bizarre situation to occur.

Now, if your HOF is just those who had great years, then no space for Sutton, but all others look pretty good.  200+ wins and you still don't put in lousy pitchers, just guys who were solid for a long time.
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Jdog - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 04:46 PM EST (#194274) #

I have too many issues with Griffin's latest to even get started.

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John Northey - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 06:11 PM EST (#194275) #
Ooookay.  I knew I avoided Griffin articles for a reason.  He wants the Jays to trade blue chip prospects (I'm guessing Snider, Cecil, Ray, etc.) in order to 'compete' in 2009 rather than trading BJ Ryan, Lyle Overbay, and John McDonald as that would create holes in the lineup. 

Yes, he included John McDonald as a guy he wouldn't trade as he'd be too hard to replace. 

Oy vey.  How does this guy keep getting paid to write about baseball?
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Jdog - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 06:54 PM EST (#194276) #
I accidently read the article as i was looking for something on the roster movements which were being made in preperation for the rule V draft.  Just a completely screwed up view that guy has. He wants the jays to trady young inexpensive guys for established players who can help,.... as a way to trim payroll???? Is he on something? He goes on to critize JP for his lack of trading prospects for established players. The only thing i saw from his critique was that JP has only traded prospects who eventually had no real major league success, although some still  may get there.  
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ayjackson - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 08:37 PM EST (#194279) #

Once Rich Griffin said of Andres Gallarraga, after he had dined at the White House with some heads of state, that there was no truth to the rumour that Andres didn't touch his vegetables because they were on the outside edge of the plate.

I thought that was funny.  He hasn't said much noteworthy since.

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christaylor - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 11:43 PM EST (#194287) #
Hehe. Thanks. Around the last five weeks of the season, I changed the message to that after having a bit of a dig up there about Wells about how he may not be the best CFer on the team but how I was a fan anyway. I thought for sure the positivity would cool Wells off luckily, he stayed hot.

Last year, I sponsored Chacin... (he made his debut on my birthday 4 years ago and I was at the game, so I've had more than a little fondness for him despite his often terrible pitching)... so given the injuries to players whose BR pages I should probably just stay away from sponsoring Jays.
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christaylor - Thursday, November 20 2008 @ 11:48 PM EST (#194288) #
I thought one of the comments on that article (if I'm thinking of the same one I saw a couple of days ago) nailed it when it said, mocking the article repeated line of "not JP's strong suit" (or something similar) when it said, "Writing about baseball -- not Griffin's strong suit".

Griffin is an excellent example of the dinosaur that will go the way of the dodo (to mix a metaphor) as the he's obsolesced by the evolution that inexorably will occur around baseball writing/knowledge. History will not be kind to his ilk.
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Glevin - Friday, November 21 2008 @ 01:46 AM EST (#194292) #
"Griffin is an excellent example of the dinosaur that will go the way of the dodo (to mix a metaphor) as the he's obsolesced by the evolution that inexorably will occur around baseball writing/knowledge. History will not be kind to his ilk."

Well, I don't think history will care much about baseball writers, but I just don't get Griffin. You can definitely be an old-style writer, someone who relies on scouting and personal stories, and still be a fabulous and interesting analyst. Griffin doesn't seem to have a clue about anything though. This paragraph gets me the most.

"There are two trading options. The Jays can either deal major leaguers like Lyle Overbay, B.J. Ryan or John McDonald for help – which creates question marks or holes in other areas – or can package some of their own highly-touted prospects for major leaguers. The second choice is the best course – not Ricciardi's strength."

First of all, the sheer arrogance to claim that one option which seems to me to be clearly a horrible option, is the right one. Not, "in my opinion". It's "the best course". Yes, trading Snider away for a starting SS is a great idea!!!! Never mind that trading McDonald is not an option simply because you couldn't get anything for him anyway. AHHHH!!!
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christaylor - Friday, November 21 2008 @ 11:30 AM EST (#194300) #
Argh. Looking at the comment I wrote I noticed I forget to include the context, the bit about dinosaurs/history/evolution was supposed to go along with a direct nod to Sheehan's latest column on "baseball reporters". He makes a nice argument that sort of thinking Griffin exemplifies (AJ is a .500 pitcher, VORP that sounds like a burp) will wither and die because while the old boys can dig their heals in about [insert baseball myth here] the field will progress as one side has the facts and arguments and the other, bright green web pages (for example).

I agree that old-style baseball people can be fabulous writers and they can spin wonderful yarns and get gems of information from contacts build up over a lifetime, but I find it hard to take serious any analyst who uses wins alone to evaluate pitchers or batting average/HR/RBI a hitter. Not that there isn't value to traditional baseball writing (I am a fan of Joe Posnanski who I see as a fabulous blend of the old and new in his writing/analysis).

On Griffin - I couldn't agree more. He rails about JP being arrogant and has a mythology about JPs attitude of "bringing baseball to ignorant Canadian hockey fans who live in Igloos" yet, he always seems more ignorant and arrogant than JP, even at his Adam Dunn bashing worst on WWJP.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Griffin never actually singles out Snider does he? In a way there's nothing wrong with JP trying to get a good return for a system which has a good top ten. I don't see anything wrong with the logic behind the sort of deal that netted the Tigers Cabrera or the Red Sox Beckett... but Griffin needs to twist the situation into one where he can rail against JP. The mere suggestion of trading minor leaguers with potential can't just be that, not when the writer in question is biased to the point of brain-dead like Griffin.
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Ryan Day - Friday, November 21 2008 @ 11:52 AM EST (#194303) #
Griffin is a pretty good writer, actually - as long as he sticks to actual reporting, and writing about the players and the game. He's written a few very nice pieces that surprised me by how good they were. ("What, Griffin wrote this?")

But his analysis sucks. It's usually illogical, if not nonsensical, and often excessively tainted with vehement anti-JP sentiment. (Though I suppose it's anti-anyone-in-charge.)

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Dewey - Friday, November 21 2008 @ 11:57 AM EST (#194304) #
"...while the old boys can dig their heals in about [insert baseball myth here]..."

Hey, taylor, lay off the old guys, eh?  Or we'll have to send somebody over there.

BTW, that part of your foot at the back is called a heel.

Dewey
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christaylor - Friday, November 21 2008 @ 05:35 PM EST (#194316) #
To clarify, of course I mean old boys as in "club" not those of advanced age whose wit and wisdom I respect and admire.

...as for heels, no need make me feel like one for committing the sort of typo that doesn't get the lovely red-underlining.

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Dewey - Friday, November 21 2008 @ 07:56 PM EST (#194318) #
No offense, chris.   I just like standing up for old guys, especially now that I am one.

Dewey

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