Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - The Off-Season Begins!

Sources say the Milwaukee Brewers will hire former Oakland skipper and former Jay Ken Macha as their new manager. In other news, rumoured Jays trade target Mike Jacobs has been dealt from Florida to Kansas City and Detroit is not picking up the option on Edgar Renteria.

If you come across any other stories today, feel free to link them here.

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 01:52 PM EDT.

The Off-Season Begins! | 37 comments | Create New Account

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Mike Green - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#193659) #

Renteria has lost a fair bit of range over the last 5 years. Rally (aka Sean Smith, aka Chone) has his 2009 defence projections up. Renteria is -6 runs/150 games, while Scutaro is +1/150. Renteria can probably still hit well enough to be a shortstop for someone, but it seems that he wouldn't be much of an upgrade, if any, on Scutaro.

You do have to allow some leeway when using the defence projections. I have a little trouble with the idea that Scutaro is an above average defensive shortstop.

Dave Rutt - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#193666) #

I have a little trouble with the idea that Scutaro is an above average defensive shortstop.

You've probably already seen Chris Dial's Offense Plus Defense Rankings Mike, but he actually has Scutaro as the second best defender in all of baseball, next to Franklin Gutierrez (?). I'm no expert, but Dial is generally regarded as one of the experts in terms of defense, is he not?

Petey Baseball - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#193667) #

ESPN is reporting that A.J. Burnett will make his decision about opting out of his current contract by Monday. It is reported that Braunecker (his agent) has had an "ongoing dialogue" with J.P. Ricciardi and Paul Beeston. The Blue Jays are definitely still in consideration if he chooses to opt out according to Braunecker as well.

With the autumn meetings coming up on Monday, it seems like this is only posturing in the Burnett camp. Somehow I feel this thing is going to be over for us soon, because I cannot see J.P. or Beeston being too patient with A.J. Let's get this thing over quickly and move on; offer him the extension right after he opts out and if he turns it down he turns it down. It will be interesting to see how Ricciardi and Beeston co-exsist......Will Beeston be the guy pulling the strings behind the scenes or will he quietly support J.P. from the sidelines like Paul Godfrey? Its not a case of a seasoned, experienced tactician like Beeston guiding the rookie GM through all the talks and the posturing of the offseason....Ricciardi has been in the trenches long enough and has had some success in this area (2005 offseason).

Mike Green - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#193670) #

I know, Dave. Any measure that I have seen suggests that Scutaro was above average defensively in 2008. But, most analysts recommend that due to the greater uncertainty in measuring defence, you look at 3 year statistics. BP's statistics, which are completely opaque, nonetheless illustrate the point well. Over his career (of roughly 240 games at each position), Scutaro has been a slightly above average defensive second baseman and a slightly below average defensive shortstop. That accords with my own observation of him in 2008 much better than the very positive ratings suggested by the numbers.

Nonetheless, it does seem that Scutaro has been a better defender than Renteria over a period of years, if by a smaller margin than Rally's projection might suggest. I do appreciate that it is a projection, rather than an evaluation of past performance, but given their similar ages, I suspect that Scutaro will be modestly better than Renteria defensively rather than significantly better.

Pistol - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#193671) #

Count me among those who are glad the Jays didn't get Jacobs. Given that he was traded for a decent reliever it appears the Jays weren't all that interested beyond a little tire kicking.

Burnett's really a non-story right now. Everyone knows he's opting out. And the only way he's back with the Jays is if no one else offers him more money (which I don't blame him for). I'd be surprised if the Jays did that, particularly with JP talking that down the past year.

greenfrog - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#193673) #

I think the Jays are caught in between in the Burnett situation. He's shown enough to justify a substantial extension (say, an extra 2 years at $16M per), which the team appears willing to pay. But his current market value is probably a lot higher. Probably too high for JP + Rogers for various reasons (injury risk, limited payroll, history of inconsistent performance), despite AJ's value when healthy.

I just hope he ends up somewhere like Baltimore or Atlanta instead of Boston or the Yankees. I think he could be very good for the next two or three years.

Denoit - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#193675) #

I really hope AJ decides to go elsewhere. I really think the Jays should have a major push for Manny. I don't think it is out of the question they could afford him. If he is at all interested in Toronto, lets say he takes a $120M over 5 years on a back loaded contract (getting a little creative). Although he would be making more money in his declining years it would suit the Jays salary better at this moment. The Jays have alot of salary coming off the books in '10 and could really load his salary up in '11 and '12 say $30M. There is some quality talent on the way, and it will be cheap for a few years. They could stay comptetive without being burdend by the huge salary. Manny isntantly transforms the offence, and with Roy Halladay stil leading the pitching staff this team is that much better.

ayjackson - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#193677) #

Adam Loewen made his HWL debut last night for West Oahu in a pinch hit role. He was 0 for 1 and didn't strikeout, from what I can tell.

In Honolulu and Phoenix, Emaus and Arencibia continue to rake. And Campbell is doing okay in his once-a-week role.

92-93 - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#193678) #

"I have a little trouble with the idea that Scutaro is an above average defensive shortstop."

I don't. Jays fans seem to think JMac is the 2nd coming of Smith or Vizquel, but it was clear to me from watching every game that Scutaro played the better SS in 2008.

"The Jays have alot of salary coming off the books in '10 and could really load his salary up in '11 and '12 say $30M."

This isn't true in the slightest. The Jays have 82.5m committed in 2010 to Wells, Rios, Hill, Rolen, Overbay, Halladay, Downs, and Ryan. Adding a 30m, backloaded Manny to the mix and you are looking at having 9 guys locked in at 112.5m. The other 16 players could all make the MLB minimum (near impossible) and even then this isn't plausible.

ayjackson - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#193679) #

A year ago, Boras was telling everybody Arod was going to get $35m per year after opting out from the Yankees. He missed that by about 30% and got fired. Manny ain't getting anywhere near $30m unless it's two years or less.

Mike Green - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#193681) #

Actually 92-93, I felt, and the statistics do suggest this too, that John McDonald played a much less impressive defensive shortstop in 2008 than in 2007. I felt that he was a little better than Scutaro, and maybe a smidge above average but nothing more.

Denoit - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#193682) #

"The Jays have 82.5m committed in 2010" Just to clarify I meant after the '10 season. Thats why I said they could load up on Manny's contract in '11 and '12 When they have Rolen - 11M Halladay - 15.75M B.J. Ryan - 10M Lyle Overbay - 7M Scott Downs- 4M Thats an extra 47.75M to spend. I know some other salaries will have increased at that point, but still there will be extra money to go around. There could be a way to work a contract with Manny, it will be tight but possible. Most of those players leaving will hopefully be able to be replaced with guys from the Farm.

jamesq - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#193683) #

Glevin - Thursday, October 30 2008 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#193685) #

"I really hope AJ decides to go elsewhere. I really think the Jays should have a major push for Manny"

Agree with the first and not the second. AJ is a good pitcher who is going to get paid like an ace. Perhaps at 29, there was a small chance he could harness his stuff and become that ace pitcher, but at 32, it's hard to see him ever being more than a good, injury-prone pitcher. Sure, it'd be great if he stayed, but not for the money he is going to get. As for Manny, I just don't see it. Even with Manny, the Jays are probably the fourth best team in the division and they simply don't have the budget anyway. I still don't see anything else but rebuilding as a viable way to go forward. There is just no realistic scenario that has the Jays competing for the forseeable future and I fear a relentless forward push based on nothing but faint hope that the Jays get incredibly lucky, will end up just setting the Jays' needed rebuilding back years.

Ron - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#193686) #

The first order of business for the new GM is to tell every single club that Doc is available via trade if the right offer is made. Oh wait, but the Jays didn't get a new GM and decided to punt the 09 season and beyond by retaining the current mediocre one. According to Jeff Blair, the agent for Jason Giambi will be getting a phone call from the Jays. Do the Jays really need another aging DH? With the Jays stubborn refusal to rebuild (I like to call it retooling since when people hear the word rebuild they usually associate it with a large amount of consecutive losing seasons), they are starting to remind me of the Orioles before Andy McPhail was hired.

As for AJ Burnett, I will get a chuckle at the endless amount of articles that will be written about how "insert team" will be the team that finally helps AJ turn the corner from a solid to sometimes good starter to a Cy Young award contender. I still remember all the hype about AJ coming to Toronto and how he and his close friend, Arnsberg, had unfinished business. There were stories written about AJ finally maturing after Season 1 with the Jays, Season 2, and Season 3. Despite the shiny win total and seducing number of K's, Burnett was outpitched by Jesse Litsch last season. Some team out there will probably give AJ a 5 year/85 million dollar contract and I hope it's not the Jays.

seeyou - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 05:12 AM EDT (#193687) #

Just for fun, a little exercise:

Three players, along with their 2008 lines:
Player A: 247/333/465, 20 HR, 59 R, 60 RBI, 10 SB, 31 years old
Player B: 247/299/514, 32 HR, 67 R, 93 RB1, 1 SB, 28 years old
Player C: 247/373/502, 32 HR, 68 R, 96 RBI, 2 SB, 37 years old

Players B and C would seem to have an edge, but what if I told you that they both were DH-types who play below-average defence at their one position, while Player A played average to slightly below average defence at either corner, infield or outfield. Would it be clear which one you prefer?

Can you guess what these three players are, and why I'm not overly thrilled at the direction of the offseason rumour mill thus far?

lexomatic - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 06:22 AM EDT (#193688) #

B is Jacobs, i'm guessing C is Giambi.. no idea who A is

Denoit - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 07:12 AM EDT (#193689) #

Arencibia had another great night in the AFL. 2-4 with 2HR and 3 RBI's.

Mike Green - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#193690) #

For context, here are the team stats for Phoenix. Who is Michael McKenry anyways?

greenfrog - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#193691) #

A lot of people get on AJ for underachieving, but he really did have a great 2008. If you subtract April, when he was missing a fingernail and couldn't throw a curveball to save his life, his season looks like this:

16-8, 3.76 ERA, 191.2 IP, 174 H, 17 HR, 71 BB, 212 K

Those are ace-like numbers, or close to it, especially in the AL East. Interestingly, his peripheral stats are close to his career line (his 2008 K rate is higher and the BB rate a bit lower - either he learned something about pitching, or he just had a career year).

The stereotype is that he's a head case, is injury-plagued, tends to melt down with regularity, only pitches well in his contract year, etc. But he is only 31 (the same age as Halladay). It is possible that things aren't that complicated: that he's basically healthy and has become a very good pitcher.

Jdog - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#193692) #

Is player A Hinske?

Glevin - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#193693) #

"A lot of people get on AJ for underachieving, but he really did have a great 2008. If you subtract April, when he was missing a fingernail and couldn't throw a curveball to save his life, his season looks like this:"

But this is always the case with Burnett...the "it would have been a great season if only he didn't get hurt/if only he concentrated/if only etc...". If you make 150 innings the threshold (Kazmir and Perkins being the bottom two in IP in that case) Burnett was 27th in the AL in ERA and 30th in WHIP. Burnett will be 32 years old and there is nothing in his history to indicate he'll be anything more than a guy whose ERA will be around 4.00 even if he stays healthy. He's not worth what he'll get on the free agent market.

Mike Green - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#193694) #

We've been around the block with AJ quite a few times. The major thing that came out of this season for him was that he threw 220 innings; a reasonable projection for him entering 2008 would have been 160 innings or so. Now, it very well might be 175-180 innings. That's a significant difference, but if Burnett is worth $16 million per year, then Halladay will be worth $25-30 million when his contract is up in 2010. I don't see this as a sustainable way to build a team.

Mick Doherty - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#193695) #

Burnett is going into his age-32 season. His most similar career pitcher right now, and here's a name local TO folks will recognize, is Juan Guzman.

Guzman won 11 games in his age-32 season and after that his career mark was 0-1.

Caveat emptor Burnett, indeed.

92-93 - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#193697) #

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News is reporting that Milton Bradley is a type B FA, which makes him even more attractive. How much do you guys think it would take to get him? He sounded off during the season that he wanted a long-term deal, but the reality is probably that teams will be very hesitant to throw $ at him. Is 3/20 too much? Too little? He might be a very good option for the DH.

seeyou - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#193698) #

Correct, Player A is Hinske, and Player B and C are Jacobs and Giambi.

No offence to the Dude (I was cheering for him in the WS), but I�m hoping that whatever offensive help we get this offseason can be expected to provide significantly better production than Eric Hinske, especially since that player will probably cause Snider to be sent back down to the minors for more �seasoning�.

Pistol - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#193700) #

All this talk of large $$ contracts seems to be so out of step with the economics of the day in the real world; the credit crisis, the US economy heading for a recession (if not already in one). I wonder when MLB will start to feel the effects, and player salaries get squeezed.

I could be wrong, but I don't think it'll play that big of a part. Most of baseball's money is coming from TV and radio deals and that's already locked in. There may be a dip at the gate, and maybe with online content, but even if that piece of the pie drops 20% it's not having a huge impact.

I suppose if you looked at the trend right now in hockey and football gates you might get an indication of what baseball could see next year (and as far as I know there's no change, at least in football).

Mike Green - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#193701) #

Bradley can obviously hit, and the issue is simply whether his anger is under control. He has passed age 30, and may have turned a corner, it appears.

He's the kind of player that I would take a risk on.

Mick Doherty - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#193703) #

After a year of watching Uncle Miltie here in Tejas, I can tell you that someone is going to get a heck of a bargain ... guy hit .321/22/77 in just 126 games last year. I could easily see .320/35/105 in '09 but I suspect he might be looking for $8-10M. His temper is not a problem -- he had the one dustup in Kansas City but otherwise was really very much a clubhouse leader and I know Josh Hamilton has spoken very highly of him. I imagine the Rangers will do what they can to keep him around.

Ryan Day - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#193704) #

I'd be more worried about Bradley's health than anything else. 126 games this year, and that was a career high.

Excellent hitter, but I'd be wary of offering him too many years or too much guaranteed money. And you'd still need to have a pretty good Plan B on the roster.

Wildrose - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#193705) #

could be wrong, but I don't think it'll play that big of a part. Most of baseball's money is coming from TV and radio deals and that's already locked in. There may be a dip at the gate, and maybe with online content, but even if that piece of the pie drops 20% it's not having a huge impact.

Dave Perkins had a pretty good article on the Blue Jays revenue picture regarding foremost , the falling dollar.

The significant exceptions in the income picture are revenue-sharing payment, about $30 million annually, and the cheque for U.S. network TV and marketing rights, about $22 million. Godfrey said expenses run 85 per cent in U.S. dollars vs. revenues at 40 per cent U.S.

Rarely do you see such explicit numbers detailed, but Godfrey on the way out maybe doesn't care. The bottom line is that I don't think we'll see any payroll boost in Mr. Rogers nieghborhood this coming season.

The_Game - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#193707) #

Cito expressed interest in Milton in September. I'd like to see it.

TamRa - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#193708) #

Thing about Bradley's health is, if he makes it through 2 or 3 months healthy, that might be all the seasoning Snider needs in AAA

If I was signing him though, I sure would like only one guaranteed year. Maybe a vesting option for games played or something...

SK in NJ - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#193709) #

According to Rotoworld, the White Sox appear likely to trade Javier Vazquez. He has $23 million left on his current deal which ends in 2010. He's thrown at least 200 innings in 8 of the last 9 seasons, and the one season he didn't throw 200 was 2004 when he threw 198. A slightly above average innings-eater to take pressure away from the younger guys would be ideal, and it shouldn't take too much to get him. Solid replacement for Burnett, IMO, without the long-term contract attached.

As for Milton Bradley, I'm game (no pun intended) as long as the price (in years especially) is right. With Gaston managing, I'm a lot less worried about bringing in a "bad attitude" as I would have been if Gibbons were still here. I'm more in favor of Bradley than I am of Ibanez or Giambi.

John Northey - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#193711) #

Yeah, I doubt we'll see much payroll increase with the big dollar drop. If I was forecasting it I'd base decisions on an 80 cent dollar but expect to see an 85-90 cent one while having emergency plans if it drops to 75. Baseball also has a traditional 10% increase in salary every year (has held steady overall for a long time iirc). Thus, using Godfrey's numbers that means (vs a par dollar) the Jays have...

Salary increase: 10% on payroll of $98 mil = $9.8 million
Worse Case: $20 million less = drop in payroll of $10.2
Middle Case: $16 million less = drop in payroll of $6.2
Best Case: $8 million less = increase in payroll of $1.8

Thus the Jays payroll for 2009, if you assume a par dollar in 2008 when budgets were made (unlikely, they would've planned on less) and use Godfrey figures (odds are they are overestimating damage of a dropping dollar), is going to be between $87.8 million and $99.8 million.

Not a good situation with the number of locked in contracts. They need to have AJ head off, and to clear another big contract (say, BJ Ryan) to make enough space to bring in a solid player.

Unless, of course, the Jays really are where I figured they were last year - namely able to afford a payroll then of $125 million which shifts the range to $117.5 - $139.3 million which is a much nicer range and Beeston is the type to push for every penny possible. (we can dream)

TamRa - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#193712) #

Without a boost in payroll beyond $100 million, I make it that the Jays have about $18 million in hand to work with. That's likely enough to handle the announced plans once it's clear AJ won't take their offer.

If they need more money (or if AJ somehow agrees) Ryan is an easy trade to clear $10, and after 2009 you can afford to send Overbay on his way and trim off 7 more..

After 2010 the obligations trend downward, and there's no way to predict what the economy (baseball and real world) will be like after that.

Chuck - Friday, October 31 2008 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#193716) #

After 2010 the obligations trend downward, and there's no way to predict what the economy (baseball and real world) will be like after that.

It will be interesting to see if the current Great Depression has much bearing on baseball's revenues, and if owners, anticipating a levelling off of growth or even a downward trend, spend accordingly this off-season.

Baseball's economic growth has had little to do with the real world of late, and I expect more of the same, even in these dire times.

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