I don't like to make a lot of trade speculation because...I'm not very good at it.  However, I'd like 'Da' Box' opinion on this trade:

Cleveland gets:  BJ Ryan, Adam Lind, B prospect (position)

Toronto gets: Jhonny Peralta, Travis Hafner, B/C prospect (pitcing)

What Cleveland gets: Bonafide Closer (that they are rumored to be looking for), A cheap, good controllable 1B/LF/DH hitter.  Also, rids them of the uncertainty surrounding Hafner.

What Toronto gets: Offense from the SS position.  Fills a hole in the DH spot (though it is an $11.7 Million risk ...Frank Thomas pt II?...)

So, what am I missing?  Is Jhonny's defense so bad to offset the offensive gain?  Does Cleveland have a major-league ready SS that could soften the blow? Is this really 'pie-in-the-sky' or is it close to fair value (at least, on paper)?

I don't think CLE even thinks about making that deal ... now if you slot Snider in for Lind (which the Jays wouldn't do) -- nah, probably still not.

Remember, Ryan is less than a year removed from a Major Injury that cost him most of a season. This is not a Secret around the big leagues. All these deals I keep hearing people suggesting presume Full Value for Healthy (read: 2006) Ryan, and TOR wouldn't get anything close to that.

Toronto gets: Jhonny Peralta, Travis Hafner, B/C prospect (pitcing)"

Not even close fro Cleveland's POV. Ryan is just not their type of closer. They just don't have the budget to go and spend that much money on a injury risk closer. Apparently they don't like Jenson Lewis for next year, but he pitched well. And anyway, the Jays don't give up nearly enough in this deal. 

"I don't like to make a lot of trade speculation because...I'm not very good at it."

Who cares? Trade speculation is awesome fun! Here's a couple of ideas...

Adam Lind for Jonathan Sanchez

And in the crazy-not going to happen catagory...

Halladay for Colby Rasmus, Chris Perez, and John Jay.

I think we have a potential match in Cleveland, but I would not touch Hafner. Frankly, I don't like the idea of going after a strict DH to begin with. As it stands Snider and Lind probably need to DH a bit and VW and Rolen may as well next year.

Peralta would be interesting if he can hold down SS for the next 2 years and then play 3B in 2011.

Just my opinion, but I think a lot of people are undervaluing Ryan. If I were a GM I'd rather give up a solid prospect (but not a franchise-type) for BJ and hope he becomes a Type A FA after 2010 than spend $75 million on K-Rod or $50 million on Fuentes. Many teams seem to want a closer and they won't all get K-Rod/Fuentes.

Peralta is a big mistake in my opinion, his defense does not stand up at short, and the Indians realize this as well.  They are going to try him at thrid next year with Cabrera at SS.

As per Rotoworld:

Indians manager Eric Wedge appears to be in favor of moving Jhonny Peralta to third and playing Asdrubal Cabrera at shortstop next year.

http://rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3695

In an ideal world the Jays don't trade Ryan or Lind or whatever for an okay player like Peralta; they go all out for a bigtime prospect like Matt Laporta or for an established pitcher like Matt Cain.

The two most comparable trades to a potential Cain deal that I can think of are Dan Haren and Erik Bedard; I believe both were valued more when they were traded than Cain is valued now, but I could be wrong because Cain has a very nice contract.

For Bedard, the Orioles received Adam Jones, George Sherril, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio.

For Haren and Connor Robertson, the Athletics received  Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter (Carlos Quentin!), Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez.

Both trades were basically 5 for 1's; I don't know as much about prospects as everyone else here, but it seems like most of the prospects in these trades were solid players, but not many potential future stars who were basically ML ready other than Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez.

So for Matt Cain, perhaps Lind, R Romero, Campbell, BJ Ryan (you may need to involve a 3rd team here) and John Tolisano could do it. If we do, in fact, trade Ryan or Lind I hope it's for an elite player because we don't have enough elite players on our team...

So for Matt Cain, perhaps Lind, R Romero, Campbell, BJ Ryan (you may need to involve a 3rd team here) and John Tolisano could do it. If we do, in fact, trade Ryan or Lind I hope it's for an elite player because we don't have enough elite players on our team...

This is a severe case of wishful thinking. There's no way a team's going  to get Matt Cain without trading any of their top 3 prospects. Let alone a team that doesn't even have one of the best systems in basball. Both of the aforementioned packages included one of their team's top prospects, a high-upside pitching prospect, plus more. This Jays package contains neither. It's not close.

Given that the Cardinals won the World Series recently and picked Brett Wallace ahead of the Jays this year the Cards should let the Jays go first.

Not to mention they got the better end of the Glaus-Rolen deal, got Carpenter for a song and foisted upon Jays fans perhaps the worst catcher ever in the Pat Hentgen deal so yeah, I think they owe us one!

I live in San Francisco and after having seen Sanchez pitch a few times, it appears as though he has a live arm...he just doesn't know where the ball's going sometimes (like a lot of young pitchers).  The idea of getting him for Lind (or whomever) is intriguing.  The Giants are definitely looking for offense. 

Speaking of Mr. Lind...I wish Blue Jays Nation would chill about the guy.  His season didn't end the way we would've wanted it to, but this guy is a professional hitter, so I think he's going to be fine. 

this guy is a professional hitter

Given the number of times I've heard Matt Stairs described with exactly that phrase, I think you are spot on -- best case, Lind has a very Stairs-like career. Offer that to Lind right now -- 16 years, .265ish BA, 250+ homers, I think he'd be very happy with that. Or at least he should be!

Losing his cool could cost Khalil Greene more than a cool million.

Padres CEO Sandy Alderson acknowledged Tuesday that the club is pursuing a grievance against its normally stoic shortstop, who was lost for the season because of an injury sustained during a fit of frustration on July 30.

I think that trading for a proven pitcher like Cain is a no brainer especially if you're just dealing prospects. The thing about prospects is that they're no guarantees until they have some sort of success at AAA.

Clearly, we have a couple (3 if you want to include Lind) who are on the cusp in Purcey and Snider. They are both about 4 months (seasonwise) from being integral contributors to this team. The problem is, 4 months can cost you the playoffs. I think it's hard to justify trading these players when we'll regret it in August and September of 2009 when they're emerging as integral players on whatever team they're on.

That being said, I have always been a huge fan of Hafner and I think it's a very risky move to trade for him but we've done these risks in the past (Rolen-Glaus, Glaus-Orlando) so I don't think J.P. would be averse to such a move.

Yes, we could lose big if Hafner's shoulder woes continue. But if you bank on some luck and therapy, we'll be darlings for having a Hafner who can produce a .300 avg, 100 walks, 100 runs, 100 RBI and 40 homers!

Just imagine the kind of production Rios and Wells would enjoy if they batted 2 and 3 in front of him in the cleanup spot. Now, imagine Joe Inglett as our everyday second baseman and imagine the level of production he would provide batting leadoff in front of these guys!

I think Cleveland bites on the B.J Ryan, Lind and B prospect (Ricky Romero) for Hafner, Peralta and a B/C prospect. They must be very worried about Hafner and his $49 mil and i think that they'll see B.J's contract not so much as an albatross but a pawning of Hafner for a lesser financial commitment (i.e. they'd much rather not pay $10 mil for a closer but if it saves them $29 mil, why not!).

I'm wary of Peralta's bat because although the power is there, he may always regress to a .250 hitter. But given the amount of production out of SS for the Jays in the last few years, I'll take 20 homers and a .250 avg.

I'm also in favour of using Peralta as a platoon with Rolen at 3B just because we MUST get Inglett's bat into the lineup at second by moving Aaron Hill to SS. Now, wouldn't it be awesome if ROlen returns to full health and then we can deal Peralta or something... but we can cross that bridge when the time comes!

But if you bank on some luck and therapy, we'll be darlings for having a Hafner who can produce a .300 avg, 100 walks, 100 runs, 100 RBI and 40 homers!

It's a sorry GM who would count on luck of that magnitude. Hafner was an excellent hitter from ages 27 to 29, one of the very best in the game. He'll be 32 next season so even if his debilitating shoulder problems weren't an issue, simple age-related decline would most likely preclude such a renaissance. And big, lumbering non-athletic guys tend to age relatively poorly.

Shapiro, an otherwise high caliber GM, definitely dropped the ball with the Hafner contract extension. No reason the Jays should have to help bail him out.

I think it's important to remember that in 2010, the Jays rotation should have Halladay Marcum McGowan Cecil and Litsch, with Romero Purcey and perhaps guys like Mills providing the depth. Making moves like extending Burnett through 2012 or trading big for a SP just to fill a hole in 2009 is not a good idea, unless you really go all out and improve the offense. Otherwise it's best to sit back, see what your young arms do for you, and prepare for 2010.

The problem is there is no guarantee of how the pitchers will pan out and/or return from injury. A year and a half ago Ricciardi went to the media and said something like "if I knew that the young pitchers would develop like this I never would have signed Burnett" (not in those exact words, but more or less what he was saying). Fast forward to now and Ricciardi only has one capable healthy starter after Halladay (Litsch). Marcum, McGowan, and Janssen are recovering from surgeries, and Purcey is not established (and mentioning Romero/Mills/Cecil right now is pointless). Avoiding an experienced starter via trade or free agency just because a bunch of question marks may contribute two years from now is not a smart move.

Adding Cain would not just be filling a hole for 2009. He's a long-term acquisition. He's younger than all of McGowan, Marcum, Janssen, and Purcey. He's signed for three more years. He still has upside. He might be a bit of injury risk given the amount of innings he's thrown at a young age, but that's the risk you take with pitchers some times. He'd instantly become the 2nd best starter on the team and replace Burnett's spot. Kyle Loshe is getting $10 million in this market. Burnett is getting $15-18 million. Adding an inexpensive guy like Cain at the expense of non-elite prospects is a no brainer. Sure you lose depth, but you gain (at the very least) a borderline top of the rotation starter based on his current performance with a chance for more.

The Jays have to choose a direction. If they don't want to trade Halladay, then try to win with him. If they can't win with him, then trade him. Don't go into the off-season expecting to sign the next round of Eckstein/Barajas free agents just to reach 85 wins again. Unless we move to the NL West, that's not good enough.

As tough as it may sound to some fans, the Jays best shot at making the post season is to not to anything too crazy despite the injuries. The only option I would really expore is trading Adam Lind and that is if you can get a solid Mid rotation starter under 30. The Jays need to take next year as it comes, see what some of the young guys are capable of, and make a serious run in 2010. Lets have a look at what this team could possible be like then.

C - Arencibia will definatly see some time in the MLB next year should probably be ready for prime time in 2010

1B - Overbay on a contract year (not that he is that type of player but it doesnt hurt), Could be replaced for a big bopper though.

2B - Hill a full year removed from his injury should by then have fully recoverd (I have a feeling he may take a bit of time to get back to 100% starting next year)

SS - Still a question mark, unless the Jays can pull of some kind of trade may still be a sore spot. (usually free agent SS are over the hill the good ones are are too valuable to let go)

3B - Here's hoping Rolen can stay healthy

OF  - Snider Wells and Rios has the potential to be very potent offensivly and pretty darn good on defence as well.

DH - Lind/ Snider or a FA

Our pitching will hopefully barring anymore major injures be back to what we had this year (if not better)

Halladay/Marcum/McGowan/Litsch/Purcey/Cecil/Romero - Definatly a strength that they could deal with  to plug holes in the offence such as SS or possibly 1B or 3B. Plus some guys could come out of nowhere (Litsch). Definatly a strength they just have to be patient next season with it. See what this kids can do, and deal with it accordingly.

Bullpen should still be a strength as well, as alot of guys are still realativly young. Plus J.P. has a knack of finding diamonds in the rough.

This team is not built to have a one or two year flash in the pan, if managed right they could be competitve for a few years still. If they get everything to go right in a year (2006 Tigers, 2008 Rays) they could have a great team. Thats why I don't think it would be smart to hit the panic button and start dishing off prospects for older players.

As my name suggests, I believe we will be better in 2010 than in 2009. Most of this has to do with the fact that JPA/Snider/Cecil will all (hopefully) get their feet wet in 2009 and be ready to potentially breakout in 2010. Plus Marcum may help out as well. That being said, I think trading for Cain or even a lesser starter like Olsen/Sanchez is a good idea because next offseason WE can be the team selling off a starter for a nice bounty. If McGowan is back in May, we can keep Halladay, Cain and McGowan (which could be 3 of the top 10 starters in the majors with any luck) and move Litsch/Purcey or whatever because Cecil et al are banging at the door. So if Cain can be acquired without giving up a big 3 prospect then do it. But we need those big 3 in the next 2 years so I'd be reluctant to move them. Probably a pipedream to get Cain without one of those 3, but who knows. If it requires on of those 3 prospects, I probably wouldn't do it because (for example) Lind/Cecil/Campbell is overpaying for Cain (although overpaying is a given). Cecil looks too good to move for another pitcher.

As for those who believe we have to give 5 of our top baseball america prospects (and one of our top 3) for Cain, you may be right, but I think you're undervaluing Lind and Ryan. Lind is semi-established and is worth more than most number 3 BA prospects; I'd say he's worth more than Carlos Gonzalez was las yr as a prospect; for what it's worth, Lind was a top 40 BA prospect 2 years ago. As for Ryan, due to the supply/demand issue with closers, he's worth quite a bit more than a number 2 BA prospect IMO. As I said before, the Giants may not want him and you may have to involve a 3rd team, but that does not change BJ's trade value. So I'd like to think of Ryan/Lind as 2 top 5 BA prospects (at least) and Campbell, R Romero and someone like Tolisano as 6-10 BA prospects. My prospect knowledge isn't that great, but that package for Cain seems like a better package than the Haren package. And if it's not, I still don't think it's worth giving up one of the big three prospects AND Lind/Romero etc for Cain. Just move 3 pieces for Scott Olsen...

Of course, if our beloved J.P. had simply drafted Mr. Cain back in '02, we wouldn't need to be having this discussion.

Hey, has anyone seen Russ Adams?

I've been thinking about htis for a while

BJ Ryan for JJ Hardy

Does that make sense to anyone?

OK
I'm as excited about Lind as the next guy

But "proven major league hitter"?
His 3 major league seasons

2006 - 60AB OPS+ 159
2007 - 290AB OPS+ 77
2008 - 326AB OPS+ 98

Honestly, a player entering his age 25 season, are you blown away by those numbers?  Especially considering his poor performance at AAA in 2007.
Not to harp on what I just said, but I plugged in a 22-24 player over 2006-2008, with 700PA with an OPS+ of 95, and the first player that popped up is J.J Hardy.  Now Hardy is a good bat to have at SS, but Lind, essentially a DH/LF?  Sure he could turn into a good player, but what GM in baseball is excited enough about Lind to trade away a top player or prospect for him?

I think Lind could turn into a good player, but I don't see how he has much value at all on the trade market right now.

Of course, if our beloved J.P. had simply drafted Mr. Cain back in '02, we wouldn't need to be having this discussion.

Hey, has anyone seen Russ Adams?

If he had a lot of folks would be crying in their rice crispies about Cole Hamels.

It was ever thus, Chuck. In the early days of the Blue Jays, I recall people calling in to suggest that the Jays should trade Alvis Woods, Jerry Garvin and Dave McKay to the Red Sox for Jim Rice.

Ricciardi likes to complain a lot about salaries, but the Jays' salary, they should be contending every year. No, they are not the Yankees, but they have enough money to spend on bad contracts and more importantly, to lock up their players long-term. (Instead of having to trade them every time they are about to get a pay raise).

Well, as far as what a GM can do with his payroll, JP does compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, or at least he did this year. The Jays had a very good run differential this year, which has a lot more to do with a GM than the actual win/loss record, in my opinion. JP did assemble the best pitching in the league with an offence that wasn't very good, but still scored 102 runs more than the pitching gave up. The Blue Jays are run much better than the Yankees and the only difference I see between us and the Red Sox is payroll and a willingness to spend on player development; we need to start going over slot in the draft. I do think JP is a good talent evaluator, but the unwillingness to spend over slot on players is short-sighted. If we were willing to spend as much as the Red Sox and, for example, signed CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal, we should be a better team than the Red Sox, in my opinion. So I do think the payroll is the big difference and nobody else has to compete with the Red Sox/Yankees every year (the Orioles and Rays have not  really "competed" per se in the JP era). By many evaluators accounts this is a top 8 team in the majors so it's not like JP has run the organization into the ground. He has the right to complain about payrolls and playing in the AL east because we would have been in the playoffs in any NL division and in the AL Central this year...

Well, the Jays have been a middle of the pack salary team for years so it is hard to say they should be contenders.

In 2007 they were 8th in the AL for salary, with 5 teams over $100 million. In 2008 the Jays were 7th at $97 million (over $100=Angels, Mariners, Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, Yankees). If you feel salary is the only deciding factor then the Jays finished where they should've, 7th. Last year they were 7th while being 8th in payroll.

Even though the Jays have typically outperformed their salary in the JP era, I don't believe that an average payroll means that a .500 record is acceptable. Being .500 with an average payroll is not an accomplishment because many teams keep low payrolls and remain .500 teams; For JP to keep his job this team needs to be around a 90 win team next year, even if that is 3rd in the AL East. With the Rays becoming a competitor in this division I don't think it is realistic to hope for everything to go right to claim a playoff spot. If payroll is raised to around $240 million between 09-10 (instead of the $215-220 that looks to be alotted to the player payroll) it is realistic to think that there is a chance to win either the division or the wildcard. Otherwise it will require some trades and luck as usual.

I also don't think comparing the Jays to other AL payrolls is very useful because the White Sox, Tigers, Mariners et al don't play in the AL East. The White Sox, for example, won their division with a good payroll but their division is weak so I certainly would not say that they were better than the Jays in 2008.