As far as lyrics go, this is pretty apt:

They carved your name into a stone and then

they put it in the ground,

I run my fingers through the grooves

When no one's around

Drink till I'm sick and

I talk to myself in the dog days of the summer

And I feel you coming but I don't know how

September, September

September, September.

Do you remember the 21st night of September?
Love was changing the minds of pretenders
While chasing the clouds away

Our hearts were ringing
In the key that our souls were singing.
As we danced in the night,
Remember how the stars stole the night away

Ba de ya - say do you remember
Ba de ya - dancing in September
Ba de ya - never was a cloudy day

My thoughts are with you
Holding hands with your heart to see you
Only blue talk and love,
Remember how we knew love was here to stay

Now December found the love that we shared in September.
Only blue talk and love,
Remember the true love we share today

Ba de ya - say do you remember
Ba de ya - dancing in September
Ba de ya - never was a cloudy day

Ba de ya - say do you remember
Ba de ya - dancing in September
Ba de ya - golden dreams were shiny days

"For 2009 we need a shortstop who can hit and field, we need a catcher to appear from the minors and take charge, we need Snider to be the guy he has shown himself to be (316/366/553 so far in a lot of pressure games vs good teams), we need Marcum/McGowan/Litsch/Purcey/minor leaguers (Cecil/Mills/etc.) to step up and become #2/3/4/5. This team is the closest to a contender we've seen in a long time,"

An excerpt from the Sun's Ken Fidlin (today):

...The offence, to put it bluntly, has been lousy but now there are signs of life from the veterans, along with the exciting potential of youngsters such as Adam Lind and Travis Snider. Look for at least one big bat to be added this off-season...

If we do add one big bat as he states, then one of Travis Snider or Lind will not be a factor next year, no?  I mean do we honestly think that the big bat is going to fill our SS or C void next season?  I have to believe that if a free agent big bat lands in Toronto, it comes in the form of a DH.

There seems to be a problem with embedded links in the Batters Box formatting these days.   The two links above (including the one by Jeff Mcl) don't seem to work.   When I tried to embed links in my posts in the past couple weeks, they didn't work either.   Maybe there is some technical problem on the site that can be fixed?

Also, I would love to read the optimistic article about AJ's possible contract extension with the Jays.....  Since the embedded link doesn't work, can Jeff McL give the full address of the article?

If the Yankees get Sabathia, Burnett, and Teixeria, then they become the favourites for the division next year.  

The Jays should offer Burnett one extra year (personally, I'd have zero problems with them offering him 2 more years for 15 million/year). They'd be foolish not too. I know Burnett is not the wisest long term solution, but he's damn good. And the Jays have a window next year. Sorry, I know it's short sighted but I don't mind if the Jays are paying him 18 million in 2011 and he's got a broken arm if he helped them compete for a playoff spot in 2009/2010.  Then they'd truly have a surplus of pitching talent should Jannsen return to form and Purcey becomes more consistant. Then you CAN package a guy like Lind and some young pitchers for a Y. Escobar or another youngish SS with talent.

But I really think the Jays off season priorities this season really are simple.

Get a slugger to DH. Stop this Snider DH or Lind DH talk. Having Snider honing his craft in AAA while Lind continues to improve on the MLB will be one of the keys to them succeeding next year. That way, when an OF DOES get injured - maybe it won't be Wells for 2 months, but more then likely one of Wells/Rios/Lind does go down at one point for at least a few games - you can call up Snider. And then you have Legitimate Talent filling in, instead of a past-his-prime Brad Wilkerson. And the club remains strong, rather then being significantly hampered.

That's priority #1. Priority #2 should be resigning/extending/making sure he doesn't opt out AJ Burnett. If you can't get him, then you damn well better sign Ben Sheets. Or, since i'm essentially writing an early Christmas gift list, CC Sabathia. But since I like to stick Within The Realm of Possibilities, I think Sheets or Burnett.

The Jays can survive with a Scutaro/Mac at SS and a Barajas/Prospects duo at C, if they add a Big Scary Bat, and ensure that their pitching staff is second to none.

If we do add one big bat as he states, then one of Travis Snider or Lind will not be a factor next year, no?  I mean do we honestly think that the big bat is going to fill our SS or C void next season?  I have to believe that if a free agent big bat lands in Toronto, it comes in the form of a DH.

This I believe (though not necessarily endorse)...

* Lind will be the team's starting LF in 2009.
* Snider, given his age and inexperience, will spend the majority of 2009 in AAA.
* Signing a DH will be one of Ricciardi's highest off-season priorities (I am guessing Ibanez on a 2-year deal)
* What you see now at SS (Scutaro/MacDonald) is what you will see in 2009.
* A healthy Hill at 2B means that Inglett would become the 4th outfielder and Rolen's backup
* the starters will be Barajas, Overbay, Hill, Scutaro, Rolen, Lind, Wells, Rios, new DH
* the bench will be MacDonald, Inglett, backup catcher, Bautista
* Ricciardi's 2nd highest priority will be a SP to replace Burnett, though likely in a lower tax bracket

Ibanez on a 2-year makes sense, but I'd prefer to use that money on an elite SP.  I'm not sure that a pitcher in a lower tax bracket (i.e. Derek Lowe) will provide the Jays that much more than any of our internal options (Purcey, Romero, Cecil, Mills...).  Conversely a true #2 (which is what Burnett has slowly developed into) absolutely makes our team stronger. That's why Burnett, Sheets, or (god willing) Sabathia need to be the priority for us IMO. 

I was just wondering to myself who would top the list of the "tier-2" type free-agent starting pitchers, and just like you whiterasta80, Derek Lowe came to mind.

I also agree that bringing back/keeping AJ is offseason priority #1, I also wouldn't be heartbroken if he left.  Especially if we find out it was for $80mil/5-yrs.  I haven't seen enough health out of him to justify that.  If he does indeed jump ship, JP is foolish to think we can bump everybody up 1 spot in the rotation.  Sure, if McGowan had a completely healthy 2008, then no problem.  But not with Marcum being your defacto #2!

Is Derek Lowe @ say $36mil/3-yrs OR $26mil/2-yrs really that bad of an investment?  I think he might get reinvigorated coming back into the limelight of the AL East.  Unfortunately, this is going to be our target class of pitcher in the offseason because Sheets or CC are going to be $80mil/4-yrs MINIMUM guys!!

Derek Lowe's dramatic groundball tendencies would align very well with the team's tight infield defense, particularly with Hill back in the mix.

I honestly think that if we offered AJ something like a 3 yr contract with an option/buyout we'd have a decent chance of retaining him; how 'bout a 3 yr $45 million contract, including a $3 million buyout and a full NTC. This is how I'd structure it.

2009: 12.5 million

2010: 13.5 million

2011: 16 million

2012: 16 million team option with a 3 million buyout

This would have the benefits of keeping AJ's salary $2 million lower than Doc's through 09-10 and it would backload the contract for 2011 after Overbay/Rolen/Ryan/Downs etc are off the books. I would then hope that we could sign Halladay to a 2 year 40-44 million extension which would give Halladay/AJ a chance to pitch together for the next 4 years. I still don't know if signing AJ is a good risk (frankly, it probably isn't) - I just like the fact that it would give us the pitching surplus to acquire a hitter. If this scenario plays out, I'd be willing to move Marcum/JMac/Tallet for JJ Hardy and I doubt many teams would offer a better pitcher than Marcum for Hardy.

Just for fun / discussion:

1) If you're JP, do you have any interest in Prince Fielder, if available in a trade?

2) If so, what would you give up for him?

Listening to Ricciardi on Wilner's show, it sounds like Burnett has two options: honour the remaining two years on the contract or move on. Ricciardi isn't saying this in such blunt terms, but it sure sounds like that.

I wonder if extending Burnett wouldn't carry with it the flavour of renegotiating an existing contract, even if, strictly speaking, this wouldn't exactly be the case (were Burnett to opt out he'd technically become a FA). I can see Ricciardi not wanting to send the message that existing contracts are subject to renegotiation. That's why I think there's no possibility that Burnett returns.

Just look at how things played out for ARod in the off-season when he dared opt out. It took the confluence of numerous, unlikely factors to get him back in pinstripes. I don't know that heaven and earth will be moved to accommodate Burnett the same way.

I think a lot of us are subconsciously assuming that Snider will follow the same career trajectory as Adam Lind

Others may be but I am not. A big difference between Lind and Snider's splashy Septembers is age. Lind was 23 during his call-up. Snider is just 20. Those three years are a huge difference and suggest the players have extremely different ceilings.

Lind is just now finally finding his stride as a major league regular, at age 25. I envision Snider becoming a regular at age 22, in 2010, after spending 2009 continuing to establish himself and kicking the snot out of AAA pitching. By age 25 he could well have established himself as a star.

I expect a close-fought battle between Hill and Inglett at spring training.

I have far more faith in the guy who will be 27 and who had been improving steadily from ages 23 to 25 (to say nothing of having morphed into a gold glove caliber defender) than I do in the career minor leaguer who will be 31 and very likely played over his head in 2008. I think a healthy Hill gets his job back no questions asked.

That said, I am rooting for Inglett to prove that he's that rare exception, the guy given a chance long after chances are usually given and is able to forge a nice little career. I like his versatility and left-handed bat, but I am not anticipating another 105 OPS+.

There seems to be a lot of Brewers trade discussion (which makes sense because we do match in terms of needs). However, people seem to be hinting that Hardy could be moved for pitching, not Fielder. I'd obviously love Fielder, but just because a trade is fair does not mean that it will ever happen. Very few significant trades actually happen and a guy like Fielder requires quality, not quantity. Someone mentioned that the Brewers would want a top of the rotation starter, not multiple 4-5 starters and I totally agree with this. And considering that the Brewers have Gamel (who may fit best as a 1B)and pretty much seem to need pitching, not hitting, I don't see them trading Prince for Litsch/Lind/Cooper etc.

However, I do think that Hardy is very possible but it would pretty much require either Marcum or Cecil as a centrepiece. I don't think Litsch's value is that close to Marcum's. Marcum has been an excellent pitcher this year, though he hasn't thrown as many innings as a prospective trade partner may want. I'm pretty sure I've suggested something along the lines of Litsch/Mills/Tallet but it's pretty unrealistic. For Hardy, I'm pretty sure the only way we get him is if we have a centerpiece pitcher (Marcum/Cecil), a SS replacement (McDonald/Scutaro) and another prospect or reliever (Tallet). As for McGowan, he is completely untradable until he has shown that he is healthy so it is a moot point.

To me, the biggest advantage of resigning Burnett or signing someone like Dempster is that it would allow us to trade for the SS/big time hitter that we need by using a pitcher. Marcum definately looks like he could be a Number 2 NL starter and if the Brewers resign Sheets and basically replace Marcum with Sabathia by using Hardy, it will allow them to not completely regress into a below .500 team next year.

You'd be hardpressed to find a better defensive infield then Barajas/Rolen/Scutdonald/Hill/Overbay.

I don't mind an average to slightly below average offence for the infield. If Lind/Wells/Rios/DH can be above average (which they should be able to achieve relatively easily - even with no improvement from this years marks which are far from earth shattering), then we have an average offence. Combined with a top notch pitching staff and arguably the best all around team defence in baseball, and you have a winning team.

I'd rather look at a position by position breakdown of expected offence:

C: 80 - 85 OPS+
SS: 80 OPS+ (platooning Macdonald and Scutaro)
2B: 100 OPS+ (Hill's career is 96 which is surely a better indicator then his 205 AB's of 82 OPS+ this year))
3B: 100 OPS+ (Rolen)
1B: 105 - 110 OPS+ (Overbay, even with his loss of power, is still 'above average' as a hitter because of his outstanding OB abilities)
LF: 110 OPS+ (Lind should be good for this, and I think it's probably conservative)
CF: 105 - 110 OPS+ (Vernon has been very consistant w/the exception of his shoulder injury season)
RF: 110 OPS+ (Rios has been very steady this year and the 2 previous seasons)
DH: ????????????

So I count that as 2 guys significantly below "league average" as hitters (C and SS) - 2 league average hitters, 3 guys who are ever so slightly above average (Lind, Overbay, Wells), and 1 guy who I think is probably "definitely" above average in Rios (you could make an agrument for flipping the ever so techinical definitions for Rios/Wells).  And then the unknown, DH. If they can sign a guy who can post a 110 - 120 OPS+ for that position, then I think the teams offence, on a whole, should balance out to be about league average - at least not significantly off in one direction of the other.

With Snider as a call up for the outfielders/dh, they have one very competent hitter in the event of an injury. Bautista is not a bad hitter for a backup infielder, nor is Inglett. So their initial depth isn't bad either.

The critical questions:

Will Hill be able to perform around a 100 OPS+ level? Will Rolen? Will Overbay regress or maintain? Will Lind continue to be above average?

I think it's fairly safe bet that we get at least 100 OPS+ out of Wells, and fairly safe bet we get 110 or better from Rios.

I don't think it's critical to the team that player A or B or C or X stay healthy - there are going to be injuries and it is almost impossible to predict who (unless Corey Koskie is on the team), so I'd rather just know there are competent pieces in place to back up in the event of the inevitable injuries. 

The thing is that we don't play in the NL West.  We are a "winning" team this season, with essentially the infield you are describing.  But unfortunately we play in a division that has produced 8 of the last 16 world series champs and 10 of the last 16 AL representatives.  An "average" infield with great defense will not cut it in our division (even with stellar pitching).  Everyone in our division is going to have players who outperform the league at the power positions of DH, LF, RF, and 1B. We'll need at least 2 players to perform well above the league at a non-power position (C, 2B, SS, 3B, CF), while still playing good defense to even have a shot in our division.  I.e. Pedroia/Lowell in Boston, A-Rod/Cano/Jeter in NYC (ok Jeter doesn't play good D but you get the point), Longoria/Pena/Upton in TBay etc...

If he has a good year, then we have 1 of those guys in Wells.  But the other is going to have to come from the infield- since Mike Piazza circa 1995 isn't exactly banging our door down.

I was going to point out his career numbers at Rogers Centre (he always seems to be killing us), but they're right in line with everywhere else that he plays surprisingly.  I agree with John that we won't get him, but there are a couple of selling points we could use.

1. He can get revenge on the Sox, and take care of the Yankees- both of whom he hates- 21 times a year

2. He won't be in a big market, which he says he hates

3. Hitters ballpark

Anyway my point about getting average performance at any position is simply that the AL east has a higher standard than the rest of the league. So while Wells/Inglett may perform equal to Pedroia/Lowell  but we won't have anyone matching Ortiz, or Drew, or Youk at other positions.  When we have 4+ positions that are essentially league average offensively we aren't going to compete with Boston who has at least 6-7 guys better than league average in their lineup.

Sign Manny, trade Overbay, put Lind at 1B and Snider in LF (trade and Snider in LF could occur mid-season).  That would change everything.

Can everyone please jump off Lyle Overbay's back? While he may not be putting up the solid 2006 he had in Toronto, he is hitting right at his career levels, and should finish this year with a similar stat line to 2005 in Milwaukee. When you throw out 2007 and maybe even give him some leeway in the beginning of 2008 for the healing hand (he's having a very nice 2nd half), I just don't understand everybody's problem with him. If Manny is being brought in, there's absolutely no reason to trade Lyle Overbay. When you factor in their defense at 1B, it's not that unlikely that Overbay outproduces Lind the next 2 seasons. So if someone is going to get traded, it should be the guy with the actual trade value, and that's Lind.

Split         G   PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS  BAV OBP  SLG   OPS  BAbip  tOPS+ 
April/March   27 109  90  9 24  2  1  1   7  18 20   0  0  0   0   5  0  1 .267 .389 .344  .733  .333    84 
May           29 111  94 15 27  7  0  4  14  15 22   0  0  2   1   2  0  1 .287 .378 .489  .868  .329   115 
June          25 104  89 13 21  5  1  1  12  14 16   0  0  1   1   8  1  0 .236 .337 .348  .685  .274    71 
July          24  98  80 14 25  8  0  1   8  12 22   3  0  2   1   1  0  0 .313 .412 .450  .862  .407   115 
August        28 115 104 14 27  6  0  4  16   9 21   0  1  0   3   4  0  0 .260 .319 .433  .751  .291    86 
Sept/Oct      14  50  49  6 19  3  0  3  11   1  9   0  0  0   0   2  0  0 .388 .400 .633 1.033  .432   154 

Why do you keep ignoring the respective players trade values? Overbay is virtually worthless on the market, because of what you say, and the fact he makes 7m a year. Lind, however, is not. A guy you can plug into LF for the next 5 years for under 20m carries quite a bit of value.

The fact that Lind is cheap and looks to be more productive offensively than Overbay for the next few years is the exact reason that you dump Overbay and keep Lind. As you say, Overbay would more/less be a salary dump. While I do not think that JP would have to eat much or any of Overbay's contract to move him, he would probably only get a couple of B prospects at best. But so what? One of JP's biggest flaws is his unwillingness to dump "his" players and he sacrifices wins because of this. Even with Snider producing at a reasonable pace next year, this offence probably would not be much above average in the AL. While I'd love to get a real SS, the easiest thing to acquire via free agency is an OF/1B/DH such as Manny/Giambi or whatever. And the best guy to move is Overbay because Lind is better offensively and will cost virtually nothing through 2010 (and the Overbay savings could net Manny instead of someone such as Giambi).

There are not many places to add offence on the Blue Jays because many positions are "average". At the moment, the C and DH positions look to be filled internally by mid-2009 (Snider/JPA). SS is the only glaring hole in my opinion and the next best place to add offence is 1B by moving Overbay and inserting Lind. Consider that AJ, Overbay and Thomas were slotted to make $48 million the next 2 years. Assuming JP has faith in his pitching or decides to trade for a cheap young starter, I'd say the money would be best spent on Manny if we can land him (hopefully for about $20 mill/yr) and something such as Khalil Greene (maybe $13 mill for the next 2 years if we extend him past 2009). To me, that is a far better offence in 2010 (Rios, Lind, Wells, Manny, Snider, Greene, Arencibia, Rolen, Hill) than what we have seen this year. And the 2010 pitching staff could be excellent as well (Halladay/McGowan/Cecil/Marcum/Purcey/Romero/ Mills/Litsch etc). Basically, I'd rather spend $20 million in 2009 on Manny and have a rotating DH of inglett/scutaro etc until Snider is ready than spend $20 million on something such as Overbay and Giambi.

Again - I'm not willing to concede that Lind will out-produce Overbay in 2009. And even if he does, I will be astonished if it is by enough to neutralize Overbay's vast advantage defensively. The reason this pitching staff has been flat out incredible the last two years is because of the defense behind them, across the diamond. If you start compromising that defense (by getting a hitting SS, switching 1B...), the pitching will decline as a result. The extra SLG Lind may provide over Overbay (if he can't SLG closer to 2006 next year) is not even close to being worth the OBP and D Overbay brings to the table, in my opinion.

Everyone (hopefully) knows that Overbay is a solid defender and I agree that Lind would be a downgrade. However, I still feel people give Overbay's OBP skills way too much credit. He hits like .270 or .280 and adds about .100 points to his OBP because of his walks. This is not as valuable as, for example, someone such as Nomar when he used to hit .320 and finish with a .370 OBP (1998); singles are worth more than walks. You can't drive in runners on base when you draw a walk unless the bases are loaded. I also believe that slugging is a skill that our offence needs and that players shouldn't only be looked at by their OPS. An offence needs pieces that compliment one another and at the moment we need more slugging. For example, a healthy Troy Glaus would be vastly superior to Scott Rolen (purely from an offensive perspective) because our team is pretty devoid of power.

Speaking of Scott Rolen, he is pretty similar to Overbay offensively right now, except that he plays a premier defensive position. Let him be the high OBP/gold glove defender on the team and get some offence out of the position that needs it (1B). On the same line of thinking, many people suggest that you can have JMac in the lineup if the rest of the offence is strong because he plays amazing defence. Again, let Rolen be the Gold Glove guy on the left side of the infield and get a decent defence/quality hitter to play SS. I still feel Khalil Greene is the best gamble to take because he won't require much in terms of prospects. While he has a broken hand (like Overbay) which very easily could decrease his power next yr, he has an .802 OPS outside of Petco (Overbay is .813 career). The change of home ballparks will hopefully cancel out the power that may take time to come back due to the injury. If Greene can do what Overbay can from the SS position he would be a top 10 SS. And he is supposedly a great defender.