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The streak is over, but the Jays did not go gentle into that good night.

The Jays weren't in this one for most of the night, but chipped away at an early Sox lead in the later Innings. They came into the ninth down 6-2. Inglett, Rolen, Overbay and Scutaro took the fight to Bobby Jenks and got the score to 6-5. That brought up Alex Rios, who's been on fire recently, with two out and a runner on third. Jenks got him though on a checked swing, after a bit of chin music seemed to have Alex a bit rattled.

WWJP:

* Cito's the best at picking up opposing pitcher's pitches he's been around. There hasn't been a pitcher they've faced yet he hasn't picked up at least one pitch.
* Prepared either way with AJ. With the pitching depth he thinks they can handle it if he goes.
* Asked about free agents he was very non-committal. Wilner asked him about Snider's progress and whether that affected things and he hedged on that one too, 'he's still a kid', 'taking the proper evaluation process' etc.
* Better idea of the payroll and how much is available for free agents by the end of the World Series, when he gets some firm direction on the budget from Rogers.
* When Cito came in there was a collective deep breathe on the club which he thinks is a large part of the change in results after Gibby left.
* Thought this was a 90+ win club going into the season.
* Doesn't read the papers, although sometimes things are brought to his attention. Doesn't have a preference for any of the writers [ yeah, right ]. As for 'scoops' going to the Globe, 'sometimes guys call you on the right day, or talk to you at the right time, so they get the news first'
* Janssen will be ready for the start of the season. He's Hopeful that he or McGowan will break from ST with the club.
* Trying to expand the draft budget, thinks the international money has really blown out of proportion and they should be putting more money into the draft. [ I'm paraphrasing I think that's what he meant ]

Game Day: Marcum against Floyd 8:11PM.
11 September 2008 | 41 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Magpie - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 02:16 AM EDT (#192278) #
Some random news. We track all kinds of weird things at STATS, and every few weeks we get a collective e-mail telling us the latest of one of those weird things. For example, we keep track of how successful first baseman are at scooping throws out of the dirt. And a few weeks ago, a list of the league leaders was circulated, and to my enormous shock and surprise, the major league first basemen who have done the best job at scooping balls out of the dirt in 2008 are Ross Gload, Todd Helton, and ... Carlos Delgado?

Carlos? Are you kidding me? No, and both Helton and Delgado have scored well in previous years as well. Lyle Overbay has generally been middle of the pack. The worst this year have been Joey Votto and Daric Barton, and Jacobs in Florida has been pretty bad for several years now. Mark Teixeira, who is a very impressive defensive player, hasn't done particularly well at this part of the first baseman's game.

Anyway, the latest such missive from the Home Office told us that the major league pitcher who had broken the most bats in 2008 (yes, we record that as well) by a wide margin, was Roy Halladay with 48. Sabathia is second, with 36.

The hitter who has had his bat broken the most times is Johnny Damon (63 times), way ahead of Bobby Crosby and Freddy Sanchez (36 times.)

Alex Obal - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 03:21 AM EDT (#192279) #
Tip of the hat to Andy Sonnanstine, who pitched a hell of a game against Josh Beckett to help keep the Jays within 7 games of Boston. Seven innings, four hits, no walks, 7 strikeouts, and one unearned run as he fought his way around shaky defense to keep the Rays tied into the late innings. And a tip of the hat to Carlos Pena for the big three-run shot that won it in the 14th. And to Jason Hammel for cleaning up Troy Percival's bases-loaded nobody-out mess to nail down the save. (THE Jason Hammel!!!) If the Rays are planning on a late-season meltdown, they did a really good job of hiding it these last three days.

It's supposed to be humid and cloudy (and hopefully not rainy) on the South Side tonight, and Gavin Floyd's Tools have a history of home run issues. And lefty issues, and all the Jays' lefty bats except Lind are very well rested. Sounds like a good time for Snider's second career homer. Bad news is, Floyd also has a pronounced home/road K/BB split, 81/36 at the Cell and 42/30 elsewhere. But unlike Buehrle he's really bad at holding runners, or maybe he's just been caught by catchers who are really bad at throwing them out. Either way it's something to keep in mind. Basestealers are 64/72 in Floyd's 352.2 career innings and he has one pickoff. Green lights all around.
John Northey - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 06:32 AM EDT (#192280) #
Thanks for the WWJP summary - I never seem to be able to listen in so it is great to see what was said.

Sigh. I cursed us. Yes, by posting that the Jays won 10 straight I made the Jays get 3 hits and no runs in the first and forced Halladay to have a bad outing. Sorry.

So that is one loss in a row. Time for a winning streak or else the tiny bandwagon that has formed will fall apart. Actually, it is more if the Jays don't win 4 of the next 5 people will start jumping and going 3-2 or worse will cause it to become a very, very empty bandwagon.
Chuck - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#192282) #

Thanks for the WWJP summary - I never seem to be able to listen in

John, not sure if you, but Wilner's phone-in shows are available at his blog.

Kieran - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#192283) #
I don't mean to be armchair quarterback here, but I was really disappointed that Cito allowed Barajas to bat in the 8th against Dotel. I would have pinch hit Overbay, Snider or Zaun in that at bat. Furthermore, what was puzzling is that Zaun came out as a defensive replacement, as did Snider, in the very next inning.

As we know, Barajas, not particularly strong vs. RHP, struck out, leaving a man on base.

Anyone else frustrated by this move?
Chuck - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#192284) #

Like frat boys on the make, Tenace needs to be Gaston's wing man and intercede when Gaston's beer goggles convince him that Rod Barajas is Mike Piazza.

rpriske - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#192285) #

Two things frustrated me in this game and neither were Barajas hitting in the 8th. I was okay with that.

My issues were:

1. The defensive play of Jose Bautista at firstbase. I mean, what the hell. If that is the best he can do, then keep him the hell away from that corner.

2. The third strike call to end the game. End on what looked to clearly be a checked swing? Sucky call by Cuzzi.

John Northey - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#192286) #
A few odd moves indeed. I didn't see why you'd bring in Zaun for defensive purposes as his arm appears to be in the Piazza area. Snider for defense seemed odd too as most statistical measures I've seen suggest Lind is above average defensively and Snider isn't exactly here for his defense. Plus, of course, when you have 2 good left handed bats and Zaun on the bench why not pinch hit for Barajas?

In the end though we did get our (most likely) best hitter up with the tying run on third which is about all you can hope for.
Thomas - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#192287) #
Snider for defense seemed odd too as most statistical measures I've seen suggest Lind is above average defensively and Snider isn't exactly here for his defense

Both Cito and the Jays front office have commented in various interviews that they think Snider is better defensively than Lind.

Chuck - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#192288) #
Why were any moves made for defense in a game the team was losing? Gaston rarely makes such moves in games the team is winning.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#192289) #
Snider better defensively than Lind? Not now.  Snider runs well enough, and he's got a good arm, but he doesn't have much ball sense in the outfield.  I guess the plan is to eventually have Lind move to first base and Snider play in left-field.  That works, and a little exaggeration to support the principals' confidence in the plan is to be expected.

It sure would have been nice to have Snider available to pinch-hit for Bautista against Jenks in the 9th. 

rtcaino - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#192290) #
I thought it was weird that Barajas wasn't pinch hit for. But I was especially surprised wen they did the double switch!

I surely would have pinch hit Snider for Barajas, and then left Lind in to face the following pitcher. Then in the next inning, I would have brought in Zaun to catch for Lind.

That way you have your two young left fielders at bat, as opposed to your two less than threatening catchers.

John Northey - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#192291) #
I'm figuring Cito is doing what he used to do in the early 90's.  Namely, figure out who and what you have via tests of fire.  Lind he now has a good handle on I'd figure and it appears they want to move him to first next year with Snider in LF.

But decisions now need to be made on...
Barajas vs Zaun vs trade/free agent to help kids next year
Bautista - can he be a good backup for 3B/1B/OF or dump him
Overbay - keep or trade?  If traded then Lind goes to first, big bopper for DH.
McDonald - can he play everyday?  His errors the past few games suggests not.
Snider - looks like he's shown he can play and will get a full shot in 2009

As to pitching...
Purcey appears to have proven enough to hand the 5th slot in the rotation to him (moving to 3rd quickly if he keeps it together)
Litsch looks like a lock too as the 4th/5th starter
Marcum has to show stuff to Cito now to hold the 2nd slot in 2009, but he is one of the 5
McGowan ... if only he was healthy to fight it out for his 3rd slot, but then we'd not be seeing Purcey.
League is a lock for the pen now, but who goes where and what happens if Ryan is traded?  We have 9 guys who should be in the pen right now (Ryan, Downs, Carlson, League, Tallet, Frasor, Camp, Wolfe, Accardo) before factoring in Janssen and anyone else who emerges in spring.  Someone has to go, and it has to be tempting to trade the most expensive guy who lately has been about 4th in quality (Downs, Carlson, League all have done better lately) and who has clear trade value as a 'proven closer'.  Cito has shown he'll go for setup guys too in the past (Ward being moved there via letting Henke go).

A playoff drive is happening, but I suspect Cito and crew are being more realistic than us fans (since they have to be).  Now is a great time to see just what these guys on the bubble have for skills and if they should be part of the 2009 and beyond team. 
Chuck - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#192292) #

I'm figuring Cito is doing what he used to do in the early 90's.  Namely, figure out who and what you have via tests of fire.

I don't know John, that sounds awfully charitable. He's certainly not doing this on the pitching side, by letting League close out games in lieu of Ryan, for instance.

If he is conducting mini-tests, you'd hate to see conclusions drawn from single at-bats.

whiterasta80 - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#192293) #

The thing is that we may be trying to trade Ryan.  His value will be alot higher if he hits 30 saves than if we let League close out our September games. 

 

Jimbag - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#192294) #
If LInd is destined for first, then he should be playing there instead of Bautista. As for Lind vs. Snider defensively - I haven't seen enough of Snider to even start to form an opinion - though I will say he looks more poised in his first september call-up than Lind did. That doesn't count for a whole lot, though, as Lind has certainly improved over the past two years.



greenfrog - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#192295) #
The next five games should be pretty exciting. I agree that the Jays have to win at least four to stay in contention. Let's hope the good Marcum shows up today.

Despite the impressive win streak, one player I find frustrating to watch is Mench. His 240/319/356 line is hard to take, especially from a corner OF/DH. I suppose he keeps getting ABs because of his history of hitting left-handers, but he has basically done nothing with the bat all year.
92-93 - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#192296) #
"Anyone else frustrated by this move?"

I was extremely puzzled by taking the bat out of both Lind and Snider's hands for that 9th inning. The only justification for it seems to be Jenks' reverse splits - he's typically tougher on LHP than RH.

And from the little sample size I've seen, Snider looks like the better outfielder to me than Lind, even now.
Chuck - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#192297) #

His value will be alot higher if he hits 30 saves than if we let League close out our September games. 

Are you honestly saying that GMs will evaluate Ryan one way if he gets 25 saves and another if he gets 30?

though I will say he looks more poised in his first september call-up than Lind did.

In Lind's first call-up he hit 367/415/600. That's the kind of poise they tend to reward with a plaque in Cooperstown.

John Northey - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#192298) #
Yeah, I am being charitable to Cito there. Trying to figure out last night and some other moves leads me to thinking that he is doing that as it is the only thing that makes sense.

FYI: for those wondering about how the Jays TV ratings are...
http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080910.wsptjays_tv10/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home
John Northey - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#192299) #
Should've double checked the US ratings...
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/dcsportsbog/2008/07/nats_last_in_the_league_last_i.html

Yankees (325,000), Red Sox (233,000) and Mets (204,000) have a ton of households per game, which is how the US does ratings, while the Jays are at 300k for Sportsnet, 354k for CBC, while the 650k who watched game 10 of the streak was the highest Jays rating in 8 years for TSN. So while the Jays may not quite be in the Yankees area, they are certainly up there for TV ratings and if they start winning...wow.
China fan - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#192301) #
Bauxites are focusing on the next five games, but it might not even come to that.  It might boil down to tonight's game -- lose it and the season is over.  That's the interpretation by Cathal Kelly in the Toronto Star today.  He says that Halladay, Litsch and Burnett will pitch on 3 days rest against the Red Sox -- but ONLY if the Jays beat the White Sox tonight.  If they lose, presumably, the Jays will toss in the towel and decide that it's not worth the stress to the arms of those three pitchers. 

http://www.thestar.com/Sports/Baseball/article/497220

John Northey - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#192306) #
Now that sounds weird. Just confirmed it on the Jays site it seems. Basically Cito saying if they don't have a shot why go on short rest. In my mind, if you have 7 games vs the guys ahead of you and you are 7 out then 7 1/2 or 6 1/2 makes no real difference. The opportunity is still there. I'd play this weekend like a playoff and go from there. If the Jays lose the first 3 (double header on Saturday thus hard to adjust pitchers schedules) then adjust, but otherwise go for it. What is the worst that would happen? These games will help see if Litsch can pitch on short rest in a pressure situation. It will give Halladay a shot to recover from his poor game yesterday. AJ - who cares if he gets hurt, he's gone after the season and he has an incentive to win every chance he gets. I'd have a short leash on all 3 starters and have backups ready. But I'd certainly be giving the guys a shot at pushing the team back into it win or lose tonight. There is an offday next, followed by 6 in a row including the next 3 against Boston. Thus you have these 3 lined up for that series too but on normal rest, then they get the final series of the season. One start on short rest won't kill them but it could be valuable as a learning experience for Litsch.
John Northey - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#192307) #
Figured I should show my work...
At White Sox...
Today: Marcum

At Boston
Friday: Purcey
Saturday: AJ & Litsch
Sunday: Halladay
Monday: Off

vs Baltimore
Tuesday: Marcum
Wednesday: Purcey
Thursday: Litsch or AJ

vs Boston
Friday: Litsch or AJ
Saturday: Halladay
Sunday: Marcum
Monday: Offday

vs Yankees
Tuesday: Purcey
Wednesday: Litsch or AJ
Thursday: Litsch or AJ

at Baltimore
Friday: Halladay
Saturday: Marcum
Sunday: Purcey (Litsch or AJ on short rest if needed)

Total Starts: Halladay=3, AJ=3, Litsch=3, Marcum=4, Purcey=4 (some adjustments if needed due to offdays)

Don't do the one day shift... (aka give up)
At White Sox...
Today: Marcum

At Boston
Friday: Purcey
Saturday: Whoever & Whatever
Sunday: AJ
Monday: Off

vs Baltimore
Tuesday: Litsch
Wednesday: Halladay
Thursday: Marcum

vs Boston
Friday: Purcey
Saturday: AJ
Sunday: Litsch
Monday: Offday

vs Yankees
Tuesday: Halladay
Wednesday: Marcum
Thursday: Purcey

at Baltimore
Friday: AJ
Saturday: Litsch
Sunday: Halladay

Total Starts: Halladay=3, AJ=3, Litsch=3, Marcum=3, Purcey=3

So doing the short start gives Purcey & Marcum an extra start each and takes them away from (most likely) Richmond and Parrish. Halladay faces Baltimore twice and the Yankees once rather than Boston twice and Baltimore once. Take your pick, but I'd go with the short rest and see what happens. If a miracle occurs then more adjustments might happen.
Barry Bonnell - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#192309) #

I think if the Jays lose tonight Halladay, Burnett and Litsch still go on 3 days rest. My guess is that Cito is trying to provide further motivation for tonight's game so there is no letdown after yesterday's loss.

P.S Cito's managerial decisions were downright boneheaded yesterday. To add to what has already been said I would have liked to see League come on to face Brian Anderson.

uglyone - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#192310) #

I think you have Halladay going on 5 days rest in that first scenario one time through, and I doubt we see that ever happen if we're still going for it.

In the "not giving up" scenario, I have it looking like this:

  • THU v. CHX: Marcum (4 days rest)
  • FRI v. BOS: Purcey (4 days rest)
  • SAT v. BOS:: Burnett (3 days rest) & Litsch (3 days rest)
  • SUN v. BOS: Halladay (3 days rest)
  • MON v. OFF: ----------
  • TUE v. BAL: Marcum (4 days rest)
  • WED v. BAL: Purcey (4 days rest)
  • THU v. BAL: Burnett (4 days rest)
  • FRI v. BOS: Halladay (4 days rest)
  • SAT v. BOS: Litsch (6 days rest)
  • SUN v. BOS: Marcum (4 days rest)
  • MON v. OFF: ----------
  • TUE v. NYY: Burnett (4 days rest)
  • WED v. NYY: Halladay (4 days rest)
  • THU v. NYY: Litsch (4 days rest)
  • FRI v. BAL: Marcum (4 days rest)
  • SAT v. BAL: Purcey (10 days rest) OR Burnett (3 days rest)
  • SUN v. BAL: Burnett (4 days rest) OR Halladay (3 days rest)

Total: Halladay: 3-4 starts, Burnett: 3-4 starts, Marcum: 4 starts, Litsch: 3 starts, Purcey: 2-3 starts

Which limits Purcey's starts, and other than this weekend keeps everyone on normal rest, with the option of throwing Roy and AJ out there in the last two games of the season on short rest if needed.

Dave501 - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#192311) #
Magpie, I've been a jays fan for about 20 years now.  I never liked Delgado much (well, accept for a couple years, how could i not?) but anyway, one thing i will give him credit for, and I always noticed, was that he was the best at scooping balls from the dirt I've ever seen.  This was one aspect of his game that was consistently outstanding.  The rest of his defense was awful!
John Northey - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#192313) #
Good point uglyone. Halladay would never be given extra rest if avoidable if the Jays were/are in it.

Thus having Litsch get 6 days rest before facing Boston in a week and a bit makes sense, while Purcey gets the 2nd last start (if it didn't matter) and the final day would probably be a day for whoever to pitch (most likely Richmond) unless Burnett needs one more for 20. We also get Halladay against Boston twice, NYY once and the final start if it matters. That would be ideal all right.
ayjackson - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#192314) #

We track all kinds of weird things at STATS

Magpie, who decides whether a batted ball is a ground ball, line drive or fly ball?  What is the criteria?

Alex Obal - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#192315) #
I think if the Jays lose tonight Halladay, Burnett and Litsch still go on 3 days rest. My guess is that Cito is trying to provide further motivation for tonight's game so there is no letdown after yesterday's loss.

That makes perfect sense. Hopefully we never find out.
Jays2010 - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#192316) #
Uglyone...I think you'll see Litsch on Thursday, with Halladay and Burnett both pitching next weekend vs the Red Sox. I guess technically Litsch is pitching better than AJ, but I still think you go with the dominant (money) arm vs the Red Sox. I know I'd prefer Burnett over Litsch vs the BoSox, and I'm guessing Cito/JP will as well
Magpie - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#192317) #
Magpie, who decides whether a batted ball is a ground ball

I do, when I'm the one working the game!

Sometimes I get overruled by the Home Office, which reviews the video of every game.

The basis is generally where the ball was when it left the infield. If it goes past the infield in the air, it's a liner or a fly ball or pop up. If it hits the ground before it leaves the infield (so that an infielder, had he been able to field it, would have had to throw someone out) it's a ground ball.

Liners, flies, pop ups are all judgement calls, but they're generally pretty obvious. The toughest distinction, I think, is the deep drive to the alley - is it a liner? A hard fly ball (we also track whether balls are hit Hard, medium, or Softly). That, and the little looper that a middle infielder scampers back 30 feet to catch. A soft line drive? A fizzled pop up?
Mike Green - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#192318) #
With the advent of tele-commuting,  "overruled by the Home Office" sounds like one was on the losing end of a domestic disagreement. 

There are competing considerations in deciding on the rotation from here on out.  Purcey has been pretty effective since his return, and it is reasonable to suppose that the regular spot in the rotation has helped him with that.  Making tough decisions like that is why they pay the managers the medium-sized bucks.

Matthew E - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#192321) #
Is this the same Home Office that provides Letterman with the Top Ten Lists?
ayjackson - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#192323) #

we also track whether balls are hit Hard, medium, or Softly

This is what I've longed for.....now don't just tease us....how about a data table for our Jays' pitchers and hitters showing not only LD, FB and GB, but also hGB, mGB and sGB????  Oh to what point you ask??

hmmmmm.........well, maybe it's too early for a point....just a data table......please....offseason project??

It would be good to look at hGB data for hitters who consistently outperform their predicted BABIP and sGB data for pitchers who consistently thrive with a lower than predicted BABIP against.

On another point, a hGB that hits the dirt on it's first bounce is better than a line drive that clears the infield less than 6ft above the ground.  I've always thought it should be considered a LD, but if we can start dissecting the GBs more, good enough.

Jimbag - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#192324) #
I assume you skipped right over the part where it said "Defensively". And just to expand on that, I saw Lind take some strange routes to fly balls in his first call-up, though he looks much more comfortable out in left now. Snider looks much better (in a couple of starts) than Lind did.
Chuck - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#192325) #
I assume you skipped right over the part where it said "Defensively".

You're right. I did. But not on purpose. Mea culpa. I do agree that Lind looks a lot better now than he did back then. He even makes catches on balls now that I am not expecting him to even get to.
AWeb - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#192327) #
On a similar topic to tracking broken bats, does STATS track thrown bats? And if so, does Zaun lead the league despite his low playing time?  That guy is an advertisement for why they should put safety screens out to the dugouts....it's kind of funny, except for when he nearly kills someone 100 feet away with a 2 pound hunk of wood.
TamRa - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#192328) #
  • WED v. NYY: Halladay (4 days rest)
  • THU v. NYY: Litsch (4 days rest)
  • FRI v. BAL: Marcum (4 days rest)
  • SAT v. BAL: Purcey (10 days rest) OR Burnett (3 days rest)
  • SUN v. BAL: Burnett (4 days rest) OR Halladay (3 days rest)
For my money, I'd give Purcey the last start either way because we may very well tie in this scenerio and we'd be way better off with doc in the tibreaker than Purcey.

King Ryan - Thursday, September 11 2008 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#192329) #
Had 'em beat all the way, guys!

Boy, I wonder what Hawk and DJ were saying during that Griffey at-bat. . .

Magpie - Friday, September 12 2008 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#192330) #
does STATS track thrown bats?

No. Remember, Dave Winfield was still active when STATS got started, and tracking his thrown bats would have required extra manpower. Still the all-time champion.
11 September 2008 | 41 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.