8 1/2 games out of first, 7 out of the wild card with just one team between the Jays and Red Sox. 7 games against the Red Sox left as well. 144 games down, 18 to go. If the Jays sweep the Red Sox in those 7 (no easy feat) and stay even with the Sox over the other 11 we will see playoff baseball (unless Minnesota and the White Sox go nuts). Yeah, not a great hope - just 1.5% odds according to Baseball-Prospectus - but given a week ago it was at 0.25% it counts as exciting. FYI: Yankees down to 0.15%, Cleveland down to 0.02%, Tigers at 0.001% and the Rangers are at 0.00005%. Jays are now projected to finish at 87-75, 8 games behind the Red Sox and 10 behind the Rays. Halladay tonight, Marcum tomorrow then the big series with Purcey vs Wakefield, AJ vs Byrd, Litsch vs Colon, and Halladay vs Lester. Only Purcey has a worse ERA than his opponent throughout the next 6 games. This will be fun. Or very, very painful. Other baseball news includes the Angels having a magic number of 2 to become the first team this year to clinch, LA leading the snail race in the NL West by 2 1/2 while being just 3 games over 500, the Rays getting to 1 1/2 ahead of Boston, Chicago/Minnesota just 1 game apart, the Mets/Philly just 2 1/2 apart, while the NL wildcard is a 4 team race with 4 teams within 4 games of each other (Milwaukee leading, then Philly, St Louis, and Houston - told you they could surprise).
8 1/2 games out of first, 7 out of the wild card with just one team between the Jays and Red Sox. 7 games against the Red Sox left as well. 144 games down, 18 to go. If the Jays sweep the Red Sox in those 7 (no easy feat) and stay even with the Sox over the other 11 we will see playoff baseball (unless Minnesota and the White Sox go nuts). Yeah, not a great hope - just 1.5% odds according to Baseball-Prospectus - but given a week ago it was at 0.25% it counts as exciting. FYI: Yankees down to 0.15%, Cleveland down to 0.02%, Tigers at 0.001% and the Rangers are at 0.00005%. Jays are now projected to finish at 87-75, 8 games behind the Red Sox and 10 behind the Rays. Halladay tonight, Marcum tomorrow then the big series with Purcey vs Wakefield, AJ vs Byrd, Litsch vs Colon, and Halladay vs Lester. Only Purcey has a worse ERA than his opponent throughout the next 6 games. This will be fun. Or very, very painful. Other baseball news includes the Angels having a magic number of 2 to become the first team this year to clinch, LA leading the snail race in the NL West by 2 1/2 while being just 3 games over 500, the Rays getting to 1 1/2 ahead of Boston, Chicago/Minnesota just 1 game apart, the Mets/Philly just 2 1/2 apart, while the NL wildcard is a 4 team race with 4 teams within 4 games of each other (Milwaukee leading, then Philly, St Louis, and Houston - told you they could surprise).
The Jays have hit Wakefield decently the last few years, and Purcey's been the better pitcher since his July call-up. Let's keep painting roses!
If the near impossible happens then Cito really should get a lot of Manager of the Year votes, Halladay Cy Young votes and some sportswriter in Toronto should toss a 10th place MVP vote to either Snider (September miracle) or Lind (start of turnaround, arrived with Cito).
I would go one step further: If the near impossible does happen, then Cito will be manager of the year. It would be nothing short of amazing. On a related note, I am pretty disappointed in Wilner's stubborn refusal to acknowledge the impact of the managerial and coaching changes on this team. I am not sure why, but he is married to the notion that "the offense was underperforming so radically, that this was bound to happen". That might be true on a purely statistical level, but we all know that it does not always work out that way and "that's why they play the games". It is the same thing as saying the manager does not make a difference, which I do not believe to be true.
Anyway, I am not sure why he continues to beat that drum, but it's getting tiresome. The changes have had more of a tangible, quantifiable impact that anybody would have dared hope at the time and Cito et al deserve a lot of credit. End of self-righteous rant.
Yes they are homers, maybe the biggest in MLB. But they are consistent and unapologetic homers. I used to live in Chicago and once you get used to it, it is actually kind of funny and entertaining. They totally ignore reality at times, especially Hawk Harrelson.
However, the fact we can talk about being in a race pending the right results in one September series still qualifies this at the most exciting baseball the team has played in years.
Since Gaston was hired the Jays are 43-27, a 99 win pace. Maddon will probably win unanimously, but Gaston will probably get some third place votes thrown his way.
Last year on this day the Rockies were 74-69, and 7 games out of first. They finished 2nd but picked up the wild card at 89-73.
The Jays are 78-66 so they'd probably need to go at least 14-4 the rest of the way, including at least 5 of 7 against the Sox.
ESPN's odds are 2.9% for whatever that's worth.
I appreciated the commentary re: executing with men on base.
Ozzie Guillen is a man about fundamentals and they practice, and practice some more.
STILL can't get 'em over.
The very same commentary was made about our Jays during the Tampa Bay broadcast. Joe Inglett as lead off batter is asked to bunt and goes down swinging after two failed bunt attempts. Do the Jays work at it? You bet they do....and they went on to say that some players can prolong their service time in the big leagues if they can just bunt and move runners.
You can be a homer broadcaster and still teach your viewing audience something
I know they always say that. But I don't believe them, and neither should anybody else.
Wilner's stubborn refusal to acknowledge the impact of the managerial and coaching changes on this team.
I think Wilner's sort of half right here. While Gaston and Tenace have done some very specific things that have had a very positive impact on the team - I certainly don't want to underestimate them - I also think the simple fact that a change was made itself accounts for a great deal. In mid June, the Jays were dead men walking. They knew they had lost their way, they didn't know why, they didn't know how to stop. Anything - putting me in charge - would have been a positive step.
Well, maybe not putting me in charge.
- putting me in charge -
I anxiously await the forthcoming thread by Magpie, "What I Woulda Done, Cito" ...
Hill a righty, hit 263/324/361/685 mostly from the number 9 spot. - Inglett a lefty, hit 299/356/415/771 often from the leadoff spot.
If Hill is healthy - do we need him? Do we want him? Is his defense REALLY that much better than Joe's? Do we try him at SS?
At SS Scutaro has hit 261/342/345/687 almost exactly what Hill hit before he got hurt.
No question - where would we be this year without Joe and Marco.
And that home run call on Wells? Basically in a monotone: and it's a fly ball to left field, it's carrying, and it's gone.
Wow, they ALMOST make the Buffalo Sabres announcers from the 80s look impartial.. Plus I ABHORE that "He gone" braying.
As to the coaching/manager - the number one job is deciding who is on the field. Cito put Lind in LF and batted him low in the order until he was set, Gibbons gave him under 20 AB's. Cito put Barajas as the #1, Gibbons used Zaun. Cito put in McDonald/Scutaro at SS and benched Eckstein so much he must've had splinters by the trade, Gibbons put in Eck while McDonald was the splinter king. These changes are definitely big deals and shift where the team is at. Wilkerson had 99 PA's under Cito over 70 games vs 133 PA's under Gibbons over 37 games.
To me Cito has shown an ability to get the most out of kids, figuring out how to minimize the pressure while getting them into the majors. Yes, they have to have raw talent too. However, looking at Lind, Purcey, League and Snider I'm impressed. He also has shown that if you aren't performing (Wilkerson) you will find the bench. His addiction to putting McDonald second in the order is a bit odd, but otherwise this has been fun. I suspect Wilner is just sick of hearing how great Cito is and how Cito is the next coming. Who knows, maybe Cito isn't the most polite to Wilner and the rest of the media too (I remember him having issues with many in the Toronto media during the 89-97 stretch).
In the end, the Jays were frustrating and driving us all insane pre-Cito and are winning with Cito. That is what matters in the end.
Jays are starting to get some pub in the Boston media.
http://www.boston.com/sports/col...t_for_the_jays/
As for the Wilner comment. He knows a lot less about baseball than he thinks he does. I can think of a few major things he predicted in the past few years that turned out completely wrong.
Yes. Yes. Yes. No.
Most experts believed there was still another step to be taken forward in Aaron Hill's bat, and I agree. He is a very good young hitter, and an even better second baseman. Inglett has played very nicely, but consider this - his sample size right now is the same as Hill's post All-Star 2007, when he hit .320/.343/.488. Joe Inglett is going to be a very nice bench piece, but that's all he should be, assuming Hill is healthy.
http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/wilbur/2008/09/10/watch_out_for_the_jays/
Plus, of course, if it ends then they can start another winning streak just in time for Boston :)
But it's all good now. And I'll tell you, it's fun to have something to cheer about in September, even something unlikely, and a joyful agony to have the tug of war between the work I have to get done in the evenings, and the radio with Jerry and Alan just inches away.
I was sure a Tampa collapse was the Jays' best bet, but they've played Boston well all year, and with seven coming up with them, really nothing is impossible.
And though I'm not a huge Ricciardi fan, I'm also not a hater. If he's having a bit of fun now for a change, I'm happy for him.
Give him the offseason and spring training to work on it some more, and I'm fairly confident he will be a strong presence at the bottom part of the Jays order next year.
Well, still got to make the most of these moments. Enjoy every sandwich.
"When I'm standing in the middle of the diamond all alone / I always play to win / When it comes to skin and bone."
In other happy news, David Purcey's line since he was given a regular job in the rotation is 46 IP, 43H, 6 HR, 15W, 44K and a 4.32 ERA. He's controlled the running game well. All of that is reasonably consistent with his performance in Syracuse, except that the HR rate is up unsurprisingly. The best news is that while he has had good and bad starts, his control has varied from acceptable to good.
Still fun to check other stuff, like the Jays staff having a 122 ERA+, the 8 most used relievers all being over 100 for ERA+ (3 over 200), AJ might be #4 in the rotation to crack a 100 ERA+ (at 99 right now), Purcey able to make it 5 if he stays strong (82 but low inning count still so very variable). We could have 2 20 game winners for the first time too (closest was 1992 with Morris at 21 and Guzman at 16). 5 different starters have complete games, so go Marcum and make it 6 (only 3 AL teams other than Toronto have 6 complete games total, just 1 NL team).
Still 11th in runs scored (21 behind Tampa Bay, 46 ahead of Seattle), but we are #1 (in the good way) for runs allowed (34 ahead of Tampa Bay). Tied for #2 in defensive efficiency (at .703) behind Tampa Bay (.709), tied with Oakland.
Hmm. Odd how often the team stats come out with the Jays either just ahead or just behind Tampa. Did they take a lot of our front office or did we take a batch of theirs?
6 starts 35 IP, 33 H, 12 BB, 36 SO, 2 HR, 3.60 ERA
Two ugly starts in that mix (5 runs both times, 3 & 4 IP) but you also have 3 games of 0 or 1 run allowed. Purcey is very much the 'girl with the curl' who is either very, very good or very, very bad. Lets hope the good Purcey shows up for at least his next start.
Hill a righty, hit 263/324/361/685 mostly from the number 9 spot. - Inglett a lefty, hit 299/356/415/771 often from the leadoff spot.
If Hill is healthy - do we need him? Do we want him? Is his defense REALLY that much better than Joe's? Do we try him at SS?
Not sure that either Hill's or Inglett's 2008 represent their true levels of ability. Hill is 26 and had been improving steadily from ages 23 to 25 (his age-26 season was worse even than his rookie year). Inglett is 30 with only 200-odd prior major league AB.
What type of taste will THIS September leave in our mouths?
In each of the last 2 or 3 seasons, the Jays have ended the seasons with reasonably successful Septembers. Only to come back to earth each of the following Aprils.
So my question to throw out there is this: Is there anything to suggest that THIS September is different than the rest and that it might be more of a reflection of things to come? Or are they playing tricks with our minds again? Thoughts...
FC, I think alot of that will depend on AJ Burnett, or the person who replaces him. Part of this improvement has come about because he has worked his way into being a legitamite #2 starter. IMO our other starters are having success because they are in the roles that they should be (i.e. #3 and below). If he walks and everyone else has to move up we'll be back to Halladay and pray for rain. Maybe in a couple of years our current youngsters won't need a #2 in the rotation for stability, but right now we do. If we can bring AJ back somehow (or bring in Ben Sheets, or C.C. Sabathia hehe) then I think we'll be able to carry some momentum in the next season (particularly if we add a Giambi or Burrell).
My perfect offseason would be a trade of BJ for some prospects, letting League and Accardo fight for the right to close, using BJ's money to pay off AJ, and using the Thomas money to bring in a rent-a-DH
So my question to throw out there is this: Is there anything to suggest that THIS September is different than the rest and that it might be more of a reflection of things to come? Or are they playing tricks with our minds again? Thoughts...
They are beating teams that are highly motivated to win, not also-rans fielding AAA players. That's got to count for something.
Very true. Right now i want to concentrate on enjoying the team's longest winning streak in a decade and the best baseball they've played in years. Preoccupying myself with dreams of a meaningful final week of the season, as fun as it is to do, almost makes one (or at least makes me) forget to enjoy the games for what they are: the Jays playing baseball to the best of their ability.
The Jays winning percentage at the moment is 542. This is the highest since 1998's 543 and the best otherwise since the WS years. Only 3 times have the Jays had a higher winning percentage and not made the playoffs - '83 and '84 when they finished with 89 wins (549 winning percentage) and the infamous 1987 (96 wins, 593 winning percentage).
Good signs there as, outside of the 1998 blip, the Jays were a playoff team within 2 years of those cases.
The 1983 team (the start of the best time of the Jays) had two young outfielders playing everyday by years end in Barfield and Moseby (both 23), a young hotshot coming up (Bell also 23), and a heck of a lot of other youth too (under 27's who would have a good career included Fernandez, Upshaw, Griffen, Webster, Stieb, Leal, Gott, Acker).
This years team has two young outfielder who are now playing everyday in Lind (24) and Snider (20), plus a 26 year old second baseman in Hill (hopefully over his headache for 2009), a rotation that features a 23 year old (Litsch) and 3 26 year olds (Marcum, McGowan, Purcey). A 25 year old potential closer in League and a 26 year old who has closed before in Accardo. There are also a batch in their prime 27-29 years in Rios, Wells, Bautista, Carlson and Wolfe.
Not the best comparison, as the 2008 team has far more guys in the prime years than the '83 team did. A big plus though is that these guys don't have to play on as bad a field as the old Ex's was.
The '83 team had a few kids join them from the system in Key, Fielder, Lee, Gruber, Cerutti, McGriff, Liriano, Felix, Borders, Stottlemyre, Wells over the following 5 seasons to help start the 89-93 run (not all were there in '83). Do we have a batch like that coming up? Will we see more joining in? Those are the keys for 2009-2014 which is now the key era with Rios, Hill, Wells signed and control over Snider and Lind (among others) throughout.
Me, I'm thankful that Snider, Lind, Wells and Rios are getting their first tests during this run, along with Marcum, Purcey, Litsch, and League. These guys should benefit from feeling some pressure this year - their first time in ML win or go home games. Lets hope their first of many experiences with those types of games. Hopefully none will have to go through what those '83 Jays did - namely having 3 guys picked off in one inning, that is a big time killer of confidence.
I would go one step further: If the near impossible does happen, then Cito will be manager of the year. It would be nothing short of amazing.
I'd go a step further than that, even.
If the near impossible does happen, it might be time to start debating where Cito belongs on the all-time Managerial list.
If the near-impossible happens, I believe we should begin sacrificing infants in Cito's name.
(Sure, maybe it wouldn't be strictly necessary, but does anyone really want to take the chance?)
If the near-impossible happens, I believe we should begin sacrificing infants in Cito's name.
(Sure, maybe it wouldn't be strictly necessary, but does anyone really want to take the chance?)
I've heard this can also stop hurricanes and cure cancer. I, for one, am totally behind this new initiative.
the problem with Wilner is that while he's got a decent handle on baseball and the stats, at the core he's still just a petty and vindictive nerd who likes to lord his newfound credibility over anyone he can find.
There's plenty of people who agreed with Wilner, and also believed that this Jays team was much better than they were playing. But not all those people feel the need to be petty about the fact that they're starting to look like they were right.
At the very least, Toronto will be a more attractive offseason destination for potential free agents. And the Jays are enjoyable to watch again.
As for Cito: sure, some of the Jays' improvement is because they made a change, any change. But some of it has been his doing:
- You know about Lind already. But no one could have done it better: Cito played him every day, and started him off 9th in the order, so that he felt no pressure. Who says Cito can't manage young players?
- The hitters are attacking the ball. Alex Rios pretty much started hitting from the moment Cito took over.
- Has Cito used the hit-and-run at all? I don't remember him doing it. Gibbons used to use it twice a game. I can't help but think that this has freed the hitters to concentrate on hitting.
- The bullpen roles have been streamlined. Ryan pitches the ninth, Downs pitches the eighth, and everybody else fills in as needed. The bullpen's best pitchers are in there with the game on the line. This is forehead-smackingly obviously the best option, don't you think?
Now, I haven't listen that often this season, so I may not have heard the specific instances Kieran references. Also, I don't agree with Wilner on every issue and I do think he sometimes is a little quick to go off on people, but generally I much prefer the way he handles foolish trade suggestions and impatient callers than a host who diplomatically goes "that's an interesting suggestion. I agree the Jays should look at Ordonez."
Halladay and Buehrle? What's the Over-Under of the length of tonight's game?
You know about Lind already. But no one could have done it better: Cito played him every day, and started him off 9th in the order, so that he felt no pressure. Who says Cito can't manage young players?
With all due respect Dave, but what if Lind had started off 1-for-19 under Cito's watch? How would he have treated him then? Once Lind was called up, he hit from the very beginning and didn't stop hitting no matter where in the lineup he was placed. Managing a player who does that is not terribly difficult.
Now, were Cito's dulcet tones the pixie dust that needed to be sprinkled all over Lind v2.0? Many will argue a direct cause and effect (though I am not suggesting you are). I am willing to concede that Lind may have been made to feel less pressure to perform, but given that (a) there were no real plan B's sitting in the dugout champing at the bit to take over (where is Ruben Sierra these days?) and (b) the fact that Lind has a history of hitting everywhere he goes, I see the cause and effect argument a tad overblown.
Lind when first called up hit...
8th, 7th, 8th, 8th, day off, 8th, day off, 8th then demoted. The team went 3-3 during his 6 games, scoring 13 runs or 2.17 per game. Ugh.
The team at the time just couldn't hit. He played 2 vs KC, 2 vs Boston, 2 vs the White Sox. The Jays lost by scores of 1-0, 2-1, 2-1. I suspect the whole team was hitting like crap and Lind just took the penalty for it. The odd thing is his last game was the 4th win in a row for the team so you'd think they'd have wanted to stay with it and see what happens (2 wins with Lind, 2 without). Ah well.
Atlanta scores five in 7th to rally, dent Rockies' playoff hopes
Playoff hopes? The Rockies record now stands at 67-79. Playoff hopes?
Well, they're still just 7.5 games out. Man, it's an entirely different world out there.
Tough to complain after ten wins in a row, but man those "just short" rallies are killer.
I hope the Jose Bautista experiment at 1B will come to an end!
What a painful ending...
They almost had your back John,
the problem with Wilner is that while he's got a decent handle on baseball and the stats, at the core he's still just a petty and vindictive nerd who likes to lord his newfound credibility over anyone he can find.
There's plenty of people who agreed with Wilner, and also believed that this Jays team was much better than they were playing. But not all those people feel the need to be petty about the fact that they're starting to look like they were right.
I completely disagree. Wilner has to deal with petty and small minded morons on each and every thread, from the killjoys who suggest a good player should be dumped for one bad play to the wet blankets who announce the game is over as soon as Ryan trots in to the children who "call him" on the tiniest stuff (like the guy who challanged Mike when the game did not end at 9:45 as "predicted"
Why do the guests get to be childish and petty and the host has to be on his best behavior? I assure you that you'd see considerably more rudeness there if it were my blog.
Wilner has credibility because he paid his dues and found his way to a job that gives him face to face access with Jays personnel which few, if any, of those who comment on his blog enjoy. In short, the odds that he knows what he's talking about are far greater than that we do. Now, that doesn't guarantee you won't say stupid things anyway (see: Griffin, Richard) but it increases the odds.
what I can't get over is why so many people expect to be treated with kid gloves on-line. Where's the upside in tolerating stupidity and patting the moron on his pointy-head for managing to figure out how a keyboard works and very little else? Some ideas and opinions ARE stupid. I, for one, am pleased to see it when they are called what they are.
Anyone who doesn't have a thick enough skin to hear their view criticized probably ought to refrain from posting it.