Bauxite zeppelinkm has prepared a Data Table that examines this year's work by Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, with particular focus on the Quality of the Opposition. I'm just the middle-man!
Halladay: 2nd (Average OPS = .766)
Lee: 73rd ( Average OPS = .732)
Run Support
Lee 5.86
Halladay 4.75
***All statistics taken from mlb.com at approximately 11:00 pm (AST) on Sunday, Sept 7
A couple of notes: zeppelinkm made a command decision to reduce Joba the Hutt's ERA+ from 160 to 125 to try to eliminate "reliever dominance," lest Joba's dominance as a reliever inflate the quality of Doc's opposition. This is a sensible precaution, but probably not all that necessary - almost three quarters of Chamberlain 88 IP of 160+ ERA came as a starting pitcher (Chamberlain has pitched 65.1 IP as a starter, 22.2 IP in relief.) If you look at his splits, you will see that Chamberlain really hasn't been much more dominant as a reliever at all. His ERA as a starter is 2.76 (2.42 as a reliever) - opposing hitters are hitting ..213/.302/.287 against him as a reliever, .245 /.319 /.322 against him as a starter. He's been almost as effective as a starter.
I've made one alteration to zeppelinkm's original work - he had a marker indicating whether the opposition was above or below .500 - I've inserted the opposing team's actual winning percentage, and averaged them.
Anyway, the overall impact is truly striking - Halladay has pitched against somewhat better offenses (his opponents have averaged 4.81 runs per game, Lee's have averaged 4.58 runs per game.) But Doc has pitched far more often against better teams, not just teams who score more runs, and he's generally been matched up against better starting pitchers. It's not particularly close, especially when it comes to being matched up against the very best teams in the game.
None of this is Cliff Lee's fault - his manager gives him the ball, he doesn't make the schedule, he doesn't decide who's pitching for the other guys. He's gone out against whoever he was sent out against and pitched about as well as you could ask a man to pitch. It's hard to ask him to have been better than he's been, and I personally won't quarrel if he gets the Cy Young. But there's simply no comparison between the overall Quality of Opposition the two pitchers have had to deal with.
There are only five teams in the majors on pace to win 90+ games: Boston, Tampa, the Angels, and the two Chicago teams. Halladay has made 11 of his 29 starts against those five teams, and they account for 5 of his 9 losses (he has 6 wins against them).
On the other hand, while Lee has made just 5 starts against those teams, he's been absolutely brilliant against them - he's 4-0, 1.15 in those five starts.
Hey - six of one, half a dozen of the other?
Cliff Lee StartsAnd here's the Good Doctor:
Team Opposition W Pct. Average R/G OPP Opponent Starter ERA+ of Opp Starter
Oakland .458 3.94 Blanton 86
Oakland .458 3.94 Gaudin 107
Min .545 5.07 Liriano 124
KC .430 4.11 Bannister 81
Seattle .394 4.18 Washburn 88
NYY .531 4.85 Wang 105
TOR .535 4.44 Marcum 125
Cin .448 4.36 Volquez 144
Texas .486 5.47 Feldman 85
KC .430 4.11 Meche 113
Texas .486 5.47 Ponson 84
Det .483 5.04 Willis 42
SD .385 3.87 Baek 74
LAD .510 4.22 Kershaw 98
SF .437 3.92 Cain 114
CWS .563 5.06 Danks 132
Min .545 5.07 Perkins 101
TB .603 4.67 Shields 118
Seattle .394 4.18 Silva 63
Min .545 5.07 Hernandez 68
Det .483 5.04 Robertson 69
TB .603 4.67 Garza 118
TOR .535 4.44 Richmond 84
LAA .606 4.63 Weaver 98
KC .430 4.11 Greinke 122
Det .483 5.04 Lambert 65
CWS .563 5.06 Richard 71
KC .430 4.11 Greinke 122
Averages .429 4.58 96.5
11 starts against 500 teams
16 starts against sub 500
Doc StartsPitchers who threw 120 innings or more Qualifty of Batters Faced (Baseball Prospectus)
Team Opposition W Pct. Average R/G OPP Opponent Starter ERA+ of Opp Starter
NYY .531 4.85 Wang 105
Bos .592 5.33 Beckett 108
Texas .486 5.47 Mendoza 52
Texas .486 5.47 Padilla 87
TB .603 4.67 Hammel 92
Bos .592 5.33 Lester 134
CWS .563 5.06 Contreras 100
Cle .489 4.85 Sabathia 158
Min .545 5.07 Bonser 68
KC .430 4.11 Greinke 122
Oak .458 3.94 Harden 212
NYY .531 4.85 Chamberlain 125
Bal .447 5.04 Liz 56
CHC .601 5.38 Marquis 103
Pit .423 4.57 Duke 86
Cin .448 4.36 Harang 86
Seattle .394 4.18 Dickey 77
LAA .606 4.63 Lackey 133
NYY .531 4.85 Chamberlain 125
TB .606 4.67 Garza 118
Bal .447 5.04 Cabrera 84
TB .603 4.67 Garza 118
Oak .458 3.94 Gallagher 83
Cle .489 4.85 Byrd 97
Bos .592 5.33 Byrd 97
NYY .531 4.85 Ponson 84
TB .603 4.67 Shields 118
NYY .531 4.85 Pettitte 95
TB .603 4.67 Sonnanstine 93
Avverages .586 4.81 104
17 starts against 500 teams
12 starts against sub 500
Halladay: 2nd (Average OPS = .766)
Lee: 73rd ( Average OPS = .732)
Run Support
Lee 5.86
Halladay 4.75
***All statistics taken from mlb.com at approximately 11:00 pm (AST) on Sunday, Sept 7
A couple of notes: zeppelinkm made a command decision to reduce Joba the Hutt's ERA+ from 160 to 125 to try to eliminate "reliever dominance," lest Joba's dominance as a reliever inflate the quality of Doc's opposition. This is a sensible precaution, but probably not all that necessary - almost three quarters of Chamberlain 88 IP of 160+ ERA came as a starting pitcher (Chamberlain has pitched 65.1 IP as a starter, 22.2 IP in relief.) If you look at his splits, you will see that Chamberlain really hasn't been much more dominant as a reliever at all. His ERA as a starter is 2.76 (2.42 as a reliever) - opposing hitters are hitting ..213/.302/.287 against him as a reliever, .245 /.319 /.322 against him as a starter. He's been almost as effective as a starter.
I've made one alteration to zeppelinkm's original work - he had a marker indicating whether the opposition was above or below .500 - I've inserted the opposing team's actual winning percentage, and averaged them.
Anyway, the overall impact is truly striking - Halladay has pitched against somewhat better offenses (his opponents have averaged 4.81 runs per game, Lee's have averaged 4.58 runs per game.) But Doc has pitched far more often against better teams, not just teams who score more runs, and he's generally been matched up against better starting pitchers. It's not particularly close, especially when it comes to being matched up against the very best teams in the game.
None of this is Cliff Lee's fault - his manager gives him the ball, he doesn't make the schedule, he doesn't decide who's pitching for the other guys. He's gone out against whoever he was sent out against and pitched about as well as you could ask a man to pitch. It's hard to ask him to have been better than he's been, and I personally won't quarrel if he gets the Cy Young. But there's simply no comparison between the overall Quality of Opposition the two pitchers have had to deal with.
There are only five teams in the majors on pace to win 90+ games: Boston, Tampa, the Angels, and the two Chicago teams. Halladay has made 11 of his 29 starts against those five teams, and they account for 5 of his 9 losses (he has 6 wins against them).
On the other hand, while Lee has made just 5 starts against those teams, he's been absolutely brilliant against them - he's 4-0, 1.15 in those five starts.
Hey - six of one, half a dozen of the other?
