Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Rays 4, Jays 7: What Happened There?

Tell me about today's game, I missed most of it.

I had a late night, what can I say? I was around for the beginning - I saw Rios double in Scutaro and Overbay homer. I saw Shaun Marcum appear to be strugggling with his control but keeping the other team off the board.

And I saw Gregg Zaun get his first hit since July. That's right - he'd gone 0 for August.

But after that.... in the Land of Nod I was. What the hell was that?

Posted by Magpie on Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 06:15 PM EDT.

Rays 4, Jays 7: What Happened There? | 95 comments | Create New Account

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ayjackson - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#191956) #

These are not your ever-so-slightly older cousin's Blue Jays.

Mike Green - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#191957) #

Do you want the short story or the long one, Mags? The short story is that each team's closer is approximately the 8th best pitcher on the staff, and the 4th best in the pen. Magic closer dust is of no use unless it's sprinkled in the eyes of the batters.

The longer story is perhaps more interesting. Marcum gained his control as the game went on, after the early double plays bailed him out. Shields was, as usual, tough. The Jays' first run scored when Upton took a poor route to the ball Rios hit over his head. Overbay's 2nd homer was interesting; he didn't really get all of it and looked like he felt that he had just hit a medium-depth fly ball to left but it carried out. After Ryan and co. blew the lead in the top of the ninth, Bartlett made a great play in the bottom of the inning on a Zaun grounder in the hole with Rolen on second and two out to prevent the ball going through by angling back and diving,. He put the icing on the cake by throwing behind Rolen for the third out. And then there was the lucky 13th...

Jays2010 - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#191958) #

Does anyone else feel that Zaun should have just announced his retirement following the game, after what is (seemingly) the greatest moment of his playing career?

Mylegacy - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#191960) #

I was thinking the same thing. Zaunnie's last hurrah.

And then, and then...I had a thought. I don't like Thigpen...so...resign the Zaunster and let either Arencibia or Jeroloman force him to the bench sometime into the season.

Magpie - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#191961) #

Whoa. Zaun had three hits? And threw out a guy trying to steal?

And after making 2 errors in his first 90 plus games as a Jay, Joe Inglett makes two errors in as many days?

And the Jays used eight relief pitchers?

This is wild stuff, man!

Jays2010 - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#191962) #

Resign the Zaunster and let either Arencibia or Jeroloman force him to the bench sometime into the season.

I was thinking the same thing, except that if Zaun has a reasonable contract between 1-1.5 milion, he'd be tradable around the all-star break when you'd want to bring up one of the 2 kids...so everyone is happy.

So we're now tied with the Yankees, 2.5 games behind the Twins for 5th in the AL, and 4.5 games behind the White Sox for 4th in the AL and they face John Lackey tonight. None of this equates to a playoff race, though it should if the top 4 teams in the AL were actually awarded with a playoff spot (sigh).

Magpie - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#191963) #

That was, by the way, just the second walk-off grand slam ever hit by a Blue Jay. George Bell had the other, against Mitch Williams (who else?) in September 1988. And like Zaun's, Bell's blast turned a loss (Texas was ahead 7-5) into a win.

The Jays have been victimized by the walkoff slam four times (Bobby Bonds, Albert Belle, Joe Crede, and David Eckstein.)

John Northey - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#191964) #

Jays2010, I had the exact same thought. For Zaun to come out for a curtain call, toss his hat into the crowd and head on home.

Of course, there was no chance of that happening as I'm certain he feels he can play a few more years and make a few more million. Still, gotta love those 'Natural' moments.

Jays2010 - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#191965) #

The Jays have been victimized by the walkoff slam four times (Bobby Bonds, Albert Belle, Joe Crede, and David Eckstein.)

So Eckstein has now victimized us in at least 3 ways: his walk-off grand slam, body-checking Aaron Hill into a concussion, and his overall defence at shortstop.

Seriously, though, I love David Eckstein like everyone else. But common...

Pepper Moffatt - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#191966) #

NY Yankees 75-66
Toronto 75-66

Damn that's *sweet*. Go Mariners!

Mylegacy - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#191967) #

Bell also got a 13th inning game winning (thought not walk off) homerun in Seattle many moons ago. I was there.

Magpie - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#191968) #

More walk-off trivia (hey, I researched all this just a couple of months ago, right?)

George Bell, Jesse Barfield, Joe Carter and Carlos Delgado each hit three walk-off homers for the Blue Jays (although Carter added a fourth in the post-season, which some of you may remember.) Albert Belle and Ruben Sierra have done likewise for the Other Guys.

The most walk-off homers allowed by a Blue Jay is the 5 surrendered by Tom Buskey in 1979. Tom Henke got tagged four times in his eight seasons here. And Joey McLaughlin, Paul Quantrill, and B.J. Ryan have each given up three of them.

Dave Till - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#191969) #

NY Yankees 75-66
Toronto 75-66

Damn that's *sweet*. Go Mariners!

The '77 expansion teams have to stick together.

At this moment, the Yankees have exactly the same chance of making it to the postseason as the Jays. Various Steinbrenners are waxing apoplectic, or perhaps choleric.

Alex Obal - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#191970) #

I'd go further. All the remaining Jays/Yankees head-to-head matchups are in Toronto, and the Jays have 7 games left against Boston to the Yankees' 3. So, assuming that the teams are equally good, the Jays probably have a better shot at the postseason.

Matthew E - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#191971) #

Chuck - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#191972) #

Had the current work division been 50/50 between Barajas and Zaun, I could see Zaun wanting to return. However, given that Gaston sees Zaun as a once-a-week catcher, I can't fathom Zaun wanting to return. Nor do I expect the Jays to offer him contract.

You would think that a Zaun/Barajas combo would be halfway useful if deployed appropriately. A lefty bat, a righty bat (okay two), a guy with pop, a guy who gets on base, a guy who can throw. But Gaston has no use for mixing and matching. The guy with the arm gets all the playing time, even getting to bat in the middle of the order despite not hitting a lick on Gaston's watch.

Gaston deserves his share of the credit for the team's turnaround. But the catcher situation has me totally baffled.

Mike Green - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#191973) #

For fun, I checked Aaron Hill's BBRef comparables. #1 was Barry Larkin, which would be great, and #2 was Dickie Thon. Thon's numbers are spookily similar to Hill's, but Dickie achieved them in the Astrodome before his head injury. Spooky.

Chuck - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#191974) #

I was at an Angels game at Exhibition Stadium in 1980 and was sitting in the front row, by the Angels' bullpen. Dickie Thon was hanging out (maybe, as a young buck, he was catching in the pen?). I remember telling him that he deserved to start over Campaneris. He did take over from Campaneris that year, though didn't really hit any better. Still, he was getting his reps in en route to becoming a star.

I should have warned him about the beaning. Sadly, the magic eight ball was on auto-pilot, only feeding me the obvious, that a 22-year old would take over from a 38-year old.

Jdog - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#191975) #

Not sure if everybody read the globe's blog a few days back, but Marcum had some nice things to say about Ricky Romero and Cecil. Well he basically stated he needs to pitch well this september to guarantee his spot in the rotation, because he saw some pitchers down in AAA while he was there who had some great stuff. Good to hear.

Grimlock - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#191976) #

Me Grimlock fell asleep in the 13th! Me Grimlock had too much food in the all-you-can-eat section at last night's game -- 5 hot dogs, a nachos, a bag of chip, and half a bag of peanuts -- and is still feeling ill over 24 hours later. Ugh... too many nitrates!

jerjapan - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#191977) #

Shields was, as usual, tough.

Not sure bout that ... the Jays were smokin' the ball off him, especially early on. He was lucky not to get creamed today.

jerjapan - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#191978) #

Gaston deserves his share of the credit for the team's turnaround. But the catcher situation has me totally baffled.

I LOVE Greg Zaun - my favourite of all JP's "reclaimed off the scrapheap gamer" types stories ... and there have been several (see Joe Inglett). But dude is 37, never had a stellar career, can't thow out runners and is slugging 340. This is the last hurrah.

jgadfly - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#191979) #

Going Going Zaun may have found a team of interest for himself next year..."Boston players watching the Rays game in the clubhouse erupted in cheers and chants of "Zaunie Bench, Zaunie Bench" when Zaun homered." ... from ESPN MLB Gamenotes ... They then went out and lost their game with Texas... Was today's game the first time that the Jays' bullpen collectively felt the pressure of the pennant race because they're suddenly realizing that they still have a chance ?

Schad - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 03:02 AM EDT (#191980) #

If being nine games out with twenty-two remaining causes them to seize up due to the pressure, our bullpen needs immediate psychiatric help. The Jays have no shot at the playoffs whatsoever.

My goal for the team is 88-74, which (sadly) would tie '98 for the best team record since the World Series victories. Also on the line , are the battles for the on-paper division title and Wild Card, as the Jays sit six games in exp. W/L behind Boston but only .5 back of the Rays in the AL East, and second to those Rays in the theoretical Wild Card chase.

sduguid - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 03:23 AM EDT (#191981) #

Rather than the relievers feeling the pressure, I think they may just need a day or two to rest (particularly Downs and Ryan)

brent - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 03:37 AM EDT (#191982) #

A lot of people are mentioning back to the 1998 season.

This season (2008), the Jays were 70-66 at the end of August. The wild card leader Boston was at 79-57 (and there are two teams between them and the Jays).

In 1998, the Jays were sitting at 71-66. Boston (wild card leader) was at 80-55. The Jays went 17-8 to finish 88-74. Boston struggled to finish at 92-70.

I think that JP has essentially achieved Ash's most competitive season.

The 2003 team went 19-7 down the stretch to finish with 86 wins. I would argue that there really hasn't been meaningful games in September since 1993. If someone thinks they were in it in '98, I think they would have to accept this season as a near equivalent. Remember, you have to look at it blindly from Sept. 1st because you don't know that the Jays would get hot and Boston went cold.

Magpie - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#191983) #

But the catcher situation has me totally baffled.

Catcher has been the one position on the field where Gaston has always gone with the better defender rather than the better hitter. (At shortstop, he'll think about it sometimes.) Its odd, but its been a consistent pattern, going all the way back to Borders over Myers.

grjas - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#191984) #

"The Jays have no shot at the playoffs whatsoever."

With only one team significantly in front of them, not actually true. And they have 7 games left with Boston. From last year's newspaper:

"Everything looked rosy for the Mets when they held a seven-game lead Sept. 12 with 17 games left..."

So of course it's highly improbable....but not impossible. And it's the closest thing to meaningful games in September in 15 years. So from a guy who gave up on them much earlier in the year: Go Jays.

John Northey - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#191985) #

Catcher and shortstop are the traditional positions you do that, defense over offense. I think Cito has his own criteria for it, and his own level of endurance before going 'oh god no'. Namely, we'd never see a Hubie Brooks at short (he was a third baseman at best) or a Piazza behind the plate (although he was one of the best ever at blocking balls - not sure how Cito would weigh that vs his noodle arm).

Should be interesting to see who the Jays get this winter to mix with Barajas. There are always a batch of backup catchers out there, normally guys who hop between AAA and the majors. I'm sure the Jays will get one or two then have him compete with Thigpen and Jeroloman in the spring for that backup slot with the knowledge they would be the first called up if/when an injury occurs. Thigpen would most likely become a AAA utility man playing 2B/3B/1B/OF/CA while Jeroloman and JP the catcher mix between CA and DH while the AAAA guy plays backup to Barajas.

Chuck - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#191986) #

But dude is 37, never had a stellar career, can't thow out runners and is slugging 340. This is the last hurrah.

While Zaun is old, especially by catcher standards, here are his OPS+'s from 2004 to 2008: 96, 94, 112, 98, 87. Bear in mind, catchers as a whole do not average an OPS+ of 100, but closer to 90.

Zaun's 2008 line is: 231/340/361. The average AL catcher: 258/322/391. That's the average, including the league's 14 starting catchers. Imagine what the line is for the average backup.

It's not like Zaun has caught a jillion games in his career, so he's not "catcher old" like Ivan Rodriguez. He's fit and brings some skills to the table, most notably the ability to get on base. Some 2009 team has to be able to make use of 250-300 Zaun ABs for the pittance he'd cost.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#191987) #

Blue Jay catchers have had 600 PAs so far this year, with Barajas getting 350 and Zaun getting 250. Barajas has worn down some as the season has gone on (as Zaun has done in previous years when given the majority of the work). Gaston would be wise to give Zaun more work in September to even the load. Perhaps Zaun could then be persuaded to come back for another year; that is really what makes sense for the organization.

ayjackson - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#191988) #

If Zaun remains a B free agent this offseason, he should be allowed to find another team. A sandwich pick is worth more than Zaun will be able to offer as a backup next season. I'm also assuming that you no longer have to qualify B-type free agents to receive compensation, as I'm sure I've heard recently.

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#191990) #

In 1998, the Jays were sitting at 71-66. Boston (wild card leader) was at 80-55. The Jays went 17-8 to finish 88-74. Boston struggled to finish at 92-70. I think that JP has essentially achieved Ash's most competitive season.

Although the 1998 team had a better record, the 2000 team was actually closer to the chase. Toronto opened September 5.5 games out but couldn't make up any ground, eventually losing 7 or the last 8 games and finishing 4.5 games out.

As a perennial optimist/sucker, I too still look to see if there is any magical way the Jays could pull this out in 2008. Realistically, if some miracle would occur it would involve a Tampa collapse, not a Red Sox one. As someone (I think Magpie) pointed out a while ago, the Sox have a relaxed September schedule. Not the Rays, who play a large number of road games where they've done poorly. It would involve the Jays going 2007 Rockies while the Rays go 2007 Mets. Not a lot of chances for that Perfect Storm, but such are the Septembers of Blue Jay fans nowadays.

And perhaps that dream will end today. Purcey goes up against Garza, and fans want to see performance. That's all, performance. No fear, surprise, a fanatical devotion to the Pope or talk of potential. If any team is due against any pitcher it's Toronto vs. Garza.

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#191991) #

"I'm also assuming that you no longer have to qualify B-type free agents to receive compensation, as I'm sure I've heard recently."

I think you still have to offer them arbitration ( per Cotts)

"f a player has filed for free agency, his former club must offer him arbitration by December 1. If the player accepts by December 7, he becomes club property again, returns to the roster, and the two sides may continue to negotiate or go to an arbitration hearing. If the player declines, the sides may continue to negotiate. (A club offering arbitration to a player who has filed for free agency retains the right to draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. The club forfeits compensation if it does not offer arbitration. See Free Agent Compensation.)"

Actually I agree that a type B free agent has good value, but it's tricky, what if he takes you up on your arbitration offer ? I think Zaun provides good value so I wouldn't really mind this.

The question is he a type B free agent enters into the equation as well. Right now he's on the bubble. Maybe the team should play him more to make sure he is a type B, but this may preclude your chances at winning. Maybe he'll be a type B again after 2009 if he plays well enough ( remember the Elias rankings are based on a 2 year period) ? This really is tricky stuff.

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#191992) #

Sorry, not sure why the Font went all screwy. I'm too old for this stuff.

scottt - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#191993) #

Zaun's 2008 line is: 231/340/361. The average AL catcher: 258/322/391. That's the average, including the league's 14 starting catchers. Imagine what the line is for the average backup.

Most of the good catchers are in the NL this year. Barajas 's 2008 line is 256/302/424. If Zaun wants to come back as the backup, fine. If not, we're not going to miss him much--as long as Barajas is healthy. Let's face it, the catcher controls the infield, and the team has lost horribly behind him.

Ryan has looked shaky all year. The odds are probably 70/30 that he'll improve next year. It's almost a miracle that he's pitching at all. Still, I'd try to get something for him and take my chances with League/Accardo for the right return.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#191994) #

Here were the 2007catcher rankings. "Eliasology" is not a recognized discipline at any institution of higher learning, but it does look like there are a number of catchers not on the 2007 list who might rank higher than Zaun this year who didn't last- Napoli, Buck, Navarro, Shoppach, Laird, Suzuki, Barajas and Inge. Zaun ranked 9th in 2007 and #14 was the last of the Bs. It is probably under 50-50 that he is a type B; I expect Navarro, Shoppach, Laird, Suzuki and Barajas to pass him, and one of the others probably will.

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#191995) #

If not, we're not going to miss him much--as long as Barajas is healthy.

That's the big IF, catchers get hurt quite frequently.

I agree that Ryan is not 100%. You can see this clearly by comparing his 2008 velocity to his career norms. Will he ever regain his arm strength ? Sell low ? Hold out for further physical recovery in the off season? That's why J.P gets paid the big bucks.

Chuck - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#191996) #

Most of the good catchers are in the NL this year.

The average NL catcher is 256/327/389, virtually identical to the average AL catcher's 258/322/391.

Let's face it, the catcher controls the infield

What does this even mean?

Ryan has looked shaky all year.... It's almost a miracle that he's pitching at all.

"Miracle" is a little strong. He's now 16 months removed from his TJ surgery. His command is obviously his problem this season and command always seems to be the last thing to return after this type of surgery. So there is a hope that in 2009 he'll bridge the gap between his 2006 and 2008 seasons.

Chuck - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#191997) #

You can see this clearly by comparing his 2008 velocity to his career norms.

Are you using K rate as a proxy for velocity? Subjectively, my eyes tell me his velocity is no different than in the past, or at least not appreciably. But his BB rate, which speaks to his command, is way off. I think his K rate will go up when (if?) his control returns.

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#191999) #

It is probably under 50-50 that he is a type B; I expect Navarro, Shoppach, Laird, Suzuki and Barajas to pass him, and one of the others probably will.

I think he will be passed to, but the link I provided was up until August 25/08 and he still was on the bubble ( at least by this fellows reckoning). You wonder if the teams are provided with daily running totals by Elias?

Mike Green - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#192000) #

Paradoxically, he is more likely to be a type B if he plays in September. Macchiavelli rules!

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#192001) #

Are you using K rate as a proxy for velocity?

Chuck my friend, scroll right to the bottom to pitch type. Velocity is given in brackets, right after which type of pitch and how much it's thrown ( e.g. he threw 80.2 % fastballs in 2008 with an average velocity of 88.9 mph)

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#192002) #

Chuck you are correct about his control being not as good this year compared to 2006. It's hard to believe how thin the margin of success and failure is in the majors.

Chuck - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#192003) #

scroll right to the bottom to pitch type. Velocity is given in brackets

Excellent. I didn't see that. Ryan has lost about 2 MPH on his fastball and slider from 2006 so I stand corrected.

I wasn't aware this data was out there. Lots of browsing to be done now. Thanks.

Magpie - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#192004) #

I'm in the house, reading the Tampa Bay Game Notes:

"... a stretch of 19 straight games against teams in playoff contention: NYY (6), BOS (6), MIN (4), TOR (3)."

They talking about the Blue Jays? Awwww. That's kind of sweet.

It also notes that the Rays are off to Boston next, where they haven't won a game since September 10, 2007. When Kazmir beat Schilling 1-0.

electric carrot - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#192005) #

Right! Exactly how I see it too. Toronto is clearly still in it. Myself, I see a combination of twenty losses in a row by Tampa combined with 20 wins in a row by Toronto leading to the Wild Card for the Jays and an eventual show down with the Mets in the World Series which Toronto loses in 7 and a riotous fan base calling for JP's head.

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#192006) #

I wasn't aware this data was out there. Lots of browsing to be done now. Thanks.

I know you appreciate this kind of stuff ( I'm sure Mike is aware of it) , there is now a freely available proxy to OPS + available. The inherent weakness OPS , as you mentioned the other day , is it's imperfect weighting of on base %. Tango's WOBA can be found here, and it gives us a more clear picture of true offensive value. Unfortunately there is only so much time in a day.

China fan - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#192007) #

Cito is putting Snider back into the starting lineup again today, even though he went hitless in his past two games. I'm a little surprised -- I thought Snider would sit out at least one game per series. Maybe the Jays are actually serious when they claim that they want to evaluate whether Snider is good enough to preclude the need for signing a free-agent DH in the off-season. Seems a little risky -- basing a $10-million decision on a few games by a 20-year-old in September. Even though I think Snider will be ready for prime-time at some point next season, I think it makes more sense to find a veteran slugger (Giambi?) who would accept a one-year deal. Snider is going to have his ups and downs, for the next year or two anyway, and I'd be reluctant to count on him as a full-time player in 2009, no matter how he looks in the majors this month.

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#192008) #

Macchiavelli rules!

You've got that right. If you play Zaun to get to type B after 2008, you potentially drive down the chances of Barajas in being a type B after 2009. My head hurts.

scottt - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#192009) #

The average NL catcher is 256/327/389, virtually identical to the average AL catcher's 258/322/391.

Maybe the NL has the best and the worst catchers?

by OPS.

McCann .886
Soto .881
Doumit .879
Mauer .858
Shoppach .844
Baker .833
Napoli .814
Snyder .789
Martin .780
Navarro .762
Laird .755
Pierzynski .751
Yadier Molina .747
Bengie Molina .739
Suzuki .735
Rodriguez .726
Barajas .726
Hernandez .723
Zaun .701
Inge .701
Schneider .700
Flores .698
Varitek .695
Torrealba .687
Kendall .668
Buck .662
Ruiz .609
Bako .599.
Ausmus .586
Jose Molina .580
Johjima .563
Bard .562

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#192011) #

I think it makes more sense to find a veteran slugger (Giambi?) who would accept a one-year deal.

One thing that has not been mentioned in this on going debate, is that generally speaking , younger everyday players do not perform well at the D.H. slot . Everyday players slotted in at the D.H. position generally perform at a much lower level than as regular fielders. Maybe they spend too much time brooding in the dug out about the last at bat. It takes a special person ( usually an older veteran player) to have the focus to deal with this issue.

Magpie - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#192012) #

I don't know if they've mentioned this on the TV broadcast the last couple of days.... Tampa's new outfielder, Fernando Perez, is the first Latino Ivy Leaguer ever to reach the majors (he earned a degree in American Studies and Creative Writing).

Perez went to Columbia U, which is also the alma mater of the man who was arguably the greatest second baseman who ever lived (Eddie Collins) and the man who is without the Remotest Shadow of Any Doubt Whatsoever the greatest first baseman who ever lived (Old Biscuit Pants himself.) But in the 70 years since Gehrig retired, only four Columbia men who have made the majors: Bob Tufts, Gene Larkin, Frank Seminara, and Perez.

Chuck - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#192014) #

Maybe the Jays are actually serious when they claim that they want to evaluate whether Snider is good enough to preclude the need for signing a free-agent DH in the off-season.

Do you have a source for that? I haven't head that.

Listening to Ricciardi on Wilner's show, fans, predictably giddy on the heels of Snider's impressive start, were questioning Ricciardi on Snider's role next year, almost urging him to consider Snider to be part of next year's OF/DH mix. Ricciardi's "we'll see" response had the tenor of one that would otherwise suggest that Snider was not going to start the year in the majors (parents who "we'll see" their kids will recognize the diplomatic use of this phrase). I may be way off, but I definitely came away with the feeling that September's performance would not affect decisions to be made regarding Snider. He's so young that caution is definitely called for. No shame in not being a major league regular until age 22.

scottt - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#192015) #

Snider wouldn't be an everyday DH anyway. So far, he's been LF: 3, RF: 2, DH: 2.

parrot11 - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#192016) #

Maybe the Jays are actually serious when they claim that they want to evaluate whether Snider is good enough to preclude the need for signing a free-agent DH in the off-season.

JP alluded to the same on Wednesdays with JP, but I think it's a mistake to think his performance in September will be able to predict accurately how he does next season (i.e. that he's got a spot covered). There are a number of young players that start off strong (either as Sept callups or their first few weeks) and then struggle quite a bit once the league adjusts to them (e.g. Lind, Jay Bruce). The thing with most young players is that there will be growing pains.

Jays2010 - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#192017) #

I disagree with all the people that suggest the Blue Jays have zero shot at the playoffs. To be honest, I'd give them around a 5-10% chance of making it. That may just be me being overly optimistic, though. Right now we have 75 wins, while Boston has 83 wins in 141 games each, respectively. What we need is...

-New York and Minnesota to not play particularly well (except NYY vs BOS); as long as neither team finishes with more than 89 or 90 wins...

-We go 5-2 vs the Red Sox (of course, if we go 6-1 or 7-0 we'd be in an even nicer position)

-We go 10-4 in our other 14 games, while Boston goes 5-9 in their other 14 games. We would each finish with 90 wins at that point

-While Boston has played very well at home, they don't play any easy teams after they finish with the Texas series today; they play TOR (7), TB (6), CLE (4) and NYY (3); the Indians are playing very well right now and, personally, I'd rather Boston play the best teams in the AL right now at home than the average to below average AL teams on the road.

-If we win today and Boston loses, then we take 3 of 4 vs CHI and Boston only takes 1 of 3 vs TB, we'd be 5.5 games back heading into the big 4 game series next weekend. I say it is possible, and for the 8 or 9 years of Toronto baseball that I have watched, this is definately the most excited I have been in September.

Leigh - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#192018) #

I'd give them around a 5-10% chance of making it

Clay Davenport says 0.7%.

Chuck - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#192019) #

And the more optimistic coolstandings has it at 1.3%.

scottt - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#192020) #

-We go 10-4 in our other 14 games, while Boston goes 5-9 in their other 14 games.

That's the low probability part right there, barring a plane crash or anything like that.

Jays2010 - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#192021) #

Oh I know all the standings have it hovering around 1% or whatever. This is more of a gut feeling that cannot be quantified, lol. I'd also see if I could start Litsch and Halladay on 3 days rest each next Saturday and Sunday vs the BoSox instead of letting Richmond/Parrish start one of the games of the doubleheader. I think you need Doc to pitch one of those 4 games and right now he's on track to skip that series.

scottt - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#192022) #

Anders - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#192024) #

Something interesting happening in Milwaukee at the moment through 7...

JustinD - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#192027) #

Yup, I ruined that one too.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#192028) #

There's an interview with Cito Gaston in today's BP, and it's available to non-subscribers.

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#192029) #

It's encouraging to see Purcey pitch those kind of games. It's also nice to have a pitcher effective against the speedy Rays. Interesting strategy. They could have gone to a right handed pitcher such as League, but the Rays had several left handed bats on the bench. Second save for Carlson. Enormous move by Cito, letting him face Baldelli after loading the bases. We would have heard the predictable Monday A.M. quarterbacking if Baldelli'd drilled a hit. Instead, Purcey has likely picked up a huge amount of confidence and undoubtedly respect from his teammates for turning it over after 8 complete with a short pen. Huge start for Purcey. Though most of his wins have come against offensively-compromised teams, it looks like he's progressing in exactly the way he needs to. I also think that the debates over next year's starting middle infield have been answered by Cito's decisions in leaving in Inglett and Scutaro in late-and-close situations.

92-93 - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#192030) #

Then let me be the Sunday afternoon QB who says that was a terrible decision. Purcey looked gassed, people had been hitting deep flies all night off him, and the AB before he had left every single pitch up in the zone. I think Cito got away with leaving DP in for too long today.

James W - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#192032) #

And I'll be the one to disagree with you, and suspect that Purcey was pitching around Pena. I believe those pitches were all reasonably close to where he wanted them.

92-93 - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#192033) #

Pitching around Pena? Explain to me why that would be a good thing, please. I see Pena vs. LHP at .199/.310/.372 in 2008, and Baldelli hits LHP over his career to the tune of .302/.352/.507, and is mashing them right now.

I really don't want to argue this though, because I don't care at all. The Jays won and are playing entertaining baseball, and that's all that matters. I question tons of decisions every game, so me thinking that Purcey should have been yanked there means very little to anyone, including myself.

Moe - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#192034) #

I disagree as well: Purcey still hit 92-93 with his fastball (so he still had some left in his tank) and they were not completely wild either. I'd agree, he was pitching around him which is somewhat understandable.
Given that the Jays are out of it (they are not going to catch Boston or Tampa), I think it was the right thing to have Purcey work himself out of it. If it works (which it did), it's good for his confidence and if it doesn't, it's not the end of the world. He has to learn how to shake off that disappointment and the game was otherwise meaningless -- although still great that they are playing as well as they do.

Dave Till - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#192035) #

The decision to leave Purcey in was more of a team-level decision than a game-level decision. If Purcey had not gotten out of the 8th, and the team had lost, it wouldn't have made much of a difference to the season. And Purcey was able to get out of the jam, and credited Cito with giving him the opportunity; it was a win on both the game and the team level.

The only concern was whether allowing Purcey to pitch when he was tired risked arm damage.

(I did wonder, at the time, whether Cito had just been caught off-guard, and simply didn't have a pitcher warmed up when Purcey lost it. But I'm a Cito fan, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.)

The Yankees are losing as I write this; if the Mariners can hold on, the Jays will be ahead of the Yankees. Woo-hoo!

Nick Holmes - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#192036) #

We're number three!

James W - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#192037) #

I don't particularly agree with the decision myself, but it worked out. From the rambling of Rance Mulliniks, Gaston wasn't going to bring in a righty, which would have brought Cliff Floyd or Eric Hinske off the bench.

Nick Holmes - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#192038) #

Thanks for the heads-up on the article, Mike. Cito still gives good interview,

scottt - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#192039) #

"There are guys around, like David Eckstein; he could be a good coach or manager one of these days."

That's a great compliment. I'll have to keep an eye on Eck when he retires now.

grjas - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#192040) #

"Then let me be the Sunday afternoon QB who says that was a terrible decision. "

I suspect the decision would have been different if the pen wasn't gassed from the prior day. With a one run lead, this could have easily stretched to extra innings regardless of who pitched. Better to give the youngster a chance, build some confidence, see how he fares.. and save some arms.

It's sure good to have Gaston back. I remember someone commenting that if the Jays finally start hitting and winning one run games that "he will be unfairly given credit for the turnaround". Does anyone still honestly believe this? Leadership makes a clear difference, and he's shown this twice, for two totally different teams.

Even though the playoffs are an incredible long shot, it's fun watching this team again. Considering this is just a sport, isn't that all that matters?

Jays2010 - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#192042) #

If the Jays sweep the White Sox this week, we'll be tied for the 4th best record in the AL. Of course, we'll probably still be like 6.5 games or whatever behind the Red Sox...I hate this scheduling. MLB needs to do something. Even if Toronto builds a team that annually wins 90 games, which looks very possible, the playoffs are still ridiculously difficult in the AL East. And when we finish off with 90 wins this year and a couple of games ahead of the Yankees, White Sox and Twins, I'm sure Richard Griffin will chime in with "another year that JP uses the division as an excuse"...well it is a legit excuse and anyone who does not see that is an idiot.

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#192043) #

And when we finish off with 90 wins this year and a couple of games ahead of the Yankees, White Sox and Twins, I'm sure Richard Griffin will chime in with "another year that JP uses the division as an excuse"...well it is a legit excuse and anyone who does not see that is an idiot.

You seem new around here. Please read the ground rules of this blog. People who may disagree with you are not referred to as idiots ( I think some others need to review these rules as well).

Thank you.

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#192044) #

I know Griffin is tough to stomach, you'll find most people around here basically try to ignore him.

Denoit - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#192045) #

The Jays definatly play in a tough division, but lets face it, they havnt played consistant baseball this year. Its nice and exciting to see them go on a run like they are right now, but baseball is all about playing consistant ball for 162 games and Toronto definatly didn't do that this year. No doubt they are a talented team that is close, but if they play good ball the whole year, there is no reason they can not win the division. If they played better earlier on then probably would have taken some games away from Tampa and Boston and ultimatly be closer than they are right now so you can't really blame the divison they play in.

Jays2010 - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#192047) #

You seem new around here.

I apologize. I am new and based on the comments I have read it did not seem like an issue. I won't do it again :)

Dave Till - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#192048) #

I know Griffin is tough to stomach, you'll find most people around here basically try to ignore him.

I haven't read any of his columns in months. I now have a healthier complexion and a sunnier outlook on life. Dogs no longer bark at me on the street. My cholesterol is improved, and I sleep deeply and without scary dreams.

It's amazing how one simple life decision can have so many ramifications!

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#192049) #

It's sure good to have Gaston back. I remember someone commenting that if the Jays finally start hitting and winning one run games that "he will be unfairly given credit for the turnaround". Does anyone still honestly believe this? Leadership makes a clear difference, and he's shown this twice, for two totally different teams

After listening to Barfield and Rance talk on quite extensively about how Gaston has imparted a new hitting attitude on the team , I decided to see if the Gaston/Tenace/Murphy troika has made a difference to the offence.

The Jays at Cito's hiring were averaging 3.96 runs/game. At the start of today , the offence is up to 4.46 runs/game, an increase of 11%. This does not however, tell the whole story. Generally in the summer when the temperature rises ( although if you were at the cottage this summer in Ontario you may still be waiting), so does overall offence. I checked league wide offence from late June until September and it's risen about 5% per game. So yes ,the Cito approach has improved team hitting about 6% ( this does not factor in injuries, home/road or strength of schedule issues which after 66 games you'd hope all comes out in the wash).

What surprised me is that run prevention, despite over all league wide offensive improvement was essentially unchanged under Cito compared to Gibby. In fact given the overall league wide scoring splurge, Gaston has actually improved this facet of the team 5%.

I'd have to say Cito has done a good job.

Jays2010 - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#192050) #

Quite interesting, Wildrose. Just by watching the Blue Jays now, as opposed to earlier in the season, they look much better. I used to think they had no shot at winning a game if they were losing after 7 innings; now they always seem to be in it. I'm guessing Cito will get a 2 year extension through 2010 to finish off JP's 5 year extension. I'd love to see a 90 win season, even if we are 3 or 4 games out of the wildcard (as well as beating the AL central winner). I always watch the Blue Jays, regardless of how they play. But it is much better when they look like they can beat any team in the league.

It's too bad that the Jays will most likely miss the playoffs. They have a lot of the ingredients to win the World Series if they could just make the playoffs, such as...

-The most reliable SP in baseball

-The best pitching in the AL overall, and a lights out bullpen (excluding the closer)

-Playing hot down the stretch, which can carry over into the playoffs

Does anyone think that AJ may opt-out and accept arbitration for one year? I'd love to just give him a 1 yr 14 mill contract and then let the 2010 staff be comprised of some combination of Halladay, Marcum, McGowan, Litsch, Purcey, Cecil, R Romero and Mills. Man, what a crop of ML caliber pitchers that will hopefully be!

Dave Till - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#192051) #

Does anyone think that AJ may opt-out and accept arbitration for one year?

I think that he will want to get as much money as he can for as long as he can, since pitchers' arms are fragile. Taking a one-year deal would be too risky.

If he really likes it here, he might allow the Jays to try to match any offer he gets after he opts out, or he might take a small hometown discount. But if the Jays want A.J., they're going to have to pony up the cash.

Matthew E - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#192052) #

I was just looking at Pythagorean records. At the moment there are only two teams in baseball with Pythagorean records clearly better than the Jays': Boston and the Cubs. That's kind of surprising.

China fan - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#192053) #

Chuck, here is the source for my comment about Snider. When Snider was called up from Syracuse last month, Ricciardi said this: "We need to upgrade in the DH spot. We either need to do it through free agency or in-house. The kid's been swinging the bat really well. We're going to get him up here and let him play and see what the evaluation is going into Spring Training. If we feel comfortable that he's a guy who's on the map, then maybe we don't delve into the free-agent market for a DH." (http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080829&content_id=3386045&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor)

I found it an astonishing comment at the time. JP was actually saying that his decision about the DH next season would be partly based on a few weeks of September games by a 20-year-old. As others have pointed out, the experiences of Lind and Phelps are cautionary tales about how an impressive September performance can be very misleading. Snider could look great this month and still not be ready next season. Personally, I think he could be ready -- but do you gamble on it? The team desperately needs a scary bat or two. They're available on the free-agent market. Do you pass up on the free agents -- maybe the last best chance to add a power bat without giving up any top prospects or anyone from the current lineup -- just because Snider looks good in September? That's the dilemma.

Magpie - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#192054) #

I did wonder, at the time, whether Cito had just been caught off-guard, and simply didn't have a pitcher warmed up when Purcey lost it.

I think it's possible that Carlson wasn't quite ready - I don't think he started throwing until there were at least two guys on base.

As for Pena and Baldelli - Purcey had faced both of them a couple of weeks earlier. Pena had two hits, one of them a homer. But he struck out Baldelli three times. So I think Purcey decided on the mound that he was going to work around Pena and go after Baldelli. It's interesting that no one came out to discuss it, though.

zeppelinkm - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#192056) #

Hey BB,

It's been a quiet night here at work, so I took some time to look at the seasons of Lee and Halladay from a slightly different perspective.

I put together a spreadsheet contrasting all the starts of Lee and Halladay showing the strength of opponent's offence, strength of the opponent based off their record, and quality of the starting pitcher faced. I use simple statistics (ie, is the club .500 or not? the Runs/Game average of the opponent, and the average ERA+ of the opposition's starting pitcher). Despite the fact they are simple numberes, it's pretty interesting and shows what we all know in our heart. I'd love to share it, but haven't a clue how. If there is any interest in seeing this just let me know and I'd be happy to oblige!

Magpie - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#192058) #

I put together a spreadsheet

A Data Table? Did someone call me by my name?

Tell ya what. Send it to me as an e-mail attachment (best address to use is dfmcilroy@yahoo.com), and I'll see what I can do about the formatting and stuff. I have way too much experience at this sort of thing!

Jays2010 - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#192059) #

But if the Jays want A.J., they're going to have to pony up the cash.

I have mixed feelings about resigning AJ. While it probably isn't a good idea, considering he is not even having a great season, I think that resigning AJ would give JP a comfortable pitching surplus to move an arm or two for a hitter. Personally, I'd love to see us move Jesse Litsch because his value should be pretty high right now, espescially for NL teams because, who knows, he could be a mid-rotation starter in the NL. Heck, he's a midrotation starter in the AL at the moment. I keep hearing 4 years and 60 million being tossed out for AJ, but I can't see JP (or the ownership) going for that; maybe 3 years and 45 million with a buyout on an option year or something. Maybe just the 2 years and 28 million that some have suggested earlier could work if AJ was given a full NTC. I know it's probably not the best risk to take, but the hitter(s) we need are probably only going to be acquired via trade and resigning AJ would increase our pitching surplus and allow us to trade from a position of strength...

Chuck - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 06:36 AM EDT (#192070) #

While it probably isn't a good idea, considering he is not even having a great season,

It's worth noting that Burnett's FIP is 3.62. His ERA belies the quality of his season due to a flukily high BABIP.

Mike Green - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#192073) #

It's best to look at 3 year ERAs and IPs to judge Burnett. He's going to end up with an average of 175-180 IPs per season over the last 3 years and an ERA of about 4.10 (or an ERA+ of about 110). That's good, but there is little reason to believe that he will be significantly better than Jesse Litsch going forward. FIP has limited use as a tool for Burnett because he has performed significantly better with the bases empty than with runners on over his career due to difficulty in holding runners. That career pattern has been continued in 2008, although basestealers have not had the same success as in previous years (the influence of Barajas?).

It's funny. Burnett has performed exactly as I expected he would when the deal was signed, but I was entirely wrong about the deal. I said then that it was an extremely poor deal, but it has worked out OK in context because of changes in the market and the team budget.

R Billie - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#192095) #

Litsch and Burnett are very different pitchers in stature and stuff but results wise are quite similar. Even if Litsch does not improve from his current level, he should provide the team with a quality of performance about equal to AJ. That doesn't do much to help the Jays though because you have to assume Litsch already pretty much has a spot locked up next year with his health and performance. AJ's spot is unspoken for with a lot of question marks around the health of McGowan and the readiness of guys like Cecil, Romero, and Purcey to contribute. Marcum isn't exactly the picture of durability either.

So with the decision to keep AJ or get a similar level of free agent, it's more an issue of quantity of innings over quality of performance. If you don't resign him you still have to account for his spot in the rotation and the 200 or so innings he put up this year. The contribution of the younger guys is very uncertain in terms of performance and inning consumption. That means your overachieving pen is going to be asked to carry a bigger load next year and a lot of these careerish reliever seasons probably won't be repeated even without an increased workload.

AJ has pitched quite well against some of the tougher offensive teams in this division though like the Red Sox and Yankees (hence their apparent interest in him for the off-season). I'm not sure how much that contributes to his value...it certainly does in a playoff setting.

robertdudek - Wednesday, September 10 2008 @ 01:27 AM EDT (#192177) #

That's good, but there is little reason to believe that he will be significantly better than Jesse Litsch going forward.

Huge disagreement here, Mike. Are you familiar with the landmark studies James did in the late 80s about how high strikeout rates were very strong predictors of future success ? James studied matched pairs of pitchers of similar quality but with widely different K rates - the high K rate pitchers destroyed the low K pitchers in terms of future performance.

AJ is exactly the kind of pitcher you want to have going forward. From observation, it is apparent to me that he has slowly learned to better harness his incredible stuff (much like a guy who had even better stuff - named Nolan). If he continues along that road and (the key) stays healthy he could be an elite pitcher over the next half decade.

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