Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

So that was a pretty good game. The Jays win 9-0, Jesse Litsch gets the CG shutout, Travis Snider went 3-3 with a walk and a home run (and no strikeouts...well, yeah) and the Jays helped to severely cripple the playoff chances of another team.

While not busy gushing fanboy style over Travis Snider (yeah, I think the kid can hit) I noticed something interesting while doing a random perusal of stats. So rather than the aforementioned gushing, let's check it out, and play everyone's favourite game: guess that player.

Player A: 300/347/494
Player B: 302/340/492

Player A is Vernon, player B is Lind. Ok, so maybe it's not thatttt interesting, but I found it instructive. I haven't seen too many games over the last little while, but I had forgotten how much Vernon was crushing the ball - indeed, he hit home run number 16 last night, in 340 at bats. For the Jays, that qualifies as an achievement - they might even have a 20 home run hitter.

Here's his line since returning from the last DL trip: 337/398/628, 7 HR 4 2B, 10 BB, 7 SO, 98 PA. 4 of the walks were intentional, but it's still a pretty impressive line. All hail Vernon? It might be a little early to get too worked up, but there are encouraging signs. His average on balls in play is a very ordinary .303, and while his walk rate is pretty much at his career average (7.1 vs. 6.8 career), he has cut down on his strikeouts significantly, striking out in just less than 12% of his at bats, as opposed to more than 15% last year.

Again, I don't know what any of this means, but its nice to get something out of your $126 million, even if it comes a bit late.

Posted by Anders on Friday, September 05 2008 @ 10:01 AM EDT.

Well That Was Fun | 90 comments | Create New Account

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Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#191864) #

With Wells, you have to watch the pop-rate in addition to the K rate. It's down this year. Ground-ball rate up, pop-up and K rates down. It looks to me like someone has helped him tinker with his swing and get a more level plane.

China fan - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#191866) #

What I also noticed is that the Jays can finally trot out a lineup with some decent hitters at the top of the order. Of the 5 hitters at the top of their lineup last night, 4 are batting .295 or better. Elsewhere in the lineup, they have a SS with an almost acceptable .264 average, a first-baseman with a .364 OBP, and a guy hitting 9th who has an OPS better than A-Rod's..... And the Jays have now climbed to 9th in the league in team batting average, and to within one percentage point of 7th. (Of course they don't look so good if measured by OPS or slugging percentage or even OBP, but batting average counts for something, maybe.) If the Jays can continue to deploy the best pitching staff in the league, and if they can tweak their hitting to push it a bit higher, to the middle of the pack, they might have a contender in 2009. So says the eternal optimist, anyway.

Mick Doherty - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#191867) #

Put yourself in the mindset of April, 2008. What's your answer to the trivia question, "Who will be tied with Roy Halladay for the team lead in shutouts come September?" Wouldn't Litsch have been about fifth or sixth on your list of guesses?

Gerry - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#191868) #

I was listening to the game on radio last night and the FAN590 missed Snider's first major league home run. The between inning break is one and a half minutes but Rogers sneaks in two minutes of ads so about 50% of the time the radio guys come back just as the first pitch of the inning is being thrown or has been thrown. A lot of times they can hide it by saying "Snider takes a strike now here is another pitch" but last night they got burned. The radio came back with Jerry saying "Travis Snider has just hit his first major league home run".

Heard JP last night, Adam Lind is taking ground balls at first in batting practice. Remember Lind was a first baseman in college. It could be for flexibility or it could be that the Jays could look to move Overbey in the winter.

John Northey - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#191869) #

Most painful thing about how good Wells is doing is knowing that going into 2009 I'll be hopeful again, thinking this is the year the Jays do something.

In 2009 we'll have ...
Under age 25 - ie: pre-prime years
Majors: Snider, Litsch
Near Majors: Jeroloman, Arencibia, Campbell,Rickey Romero, Cecil, Mills

25-29 - ie: core of prime years
Hill, Lind, Rios, Marcum, McGowan, Purcey, Carlson, League, Wolfe, Richmond, Accardo plus Bautista & Thigpen

30-32 - ie: back end of prime years, could have career year but most likely wysiwyg
Overbay, Wells, Inglett, Mench (if they keep him), Halladay, Frasor, Tallet, and AJ if by some miracle he sticks around

33-35 - ie: end of the prime, starting decline phase so don't expect improvement
Barajas, Rolen, Scutaro, McDonald, Ryan, Downs, Camp

36+ - ie: end of the road, might get production but falling off a cliff is more likely
Zaun, Thomas and Stairs were in this category but none will be here in 2009.

Not bad. No one in the red light district (36+), a few key guys in the danger zone (Barajas, Rolen, Ryan, Downs), a few in the back end of prime (Halladay, Wells, Overbay), and lots pre-30 (Hill, Lind, Rios, Marcum, McGowan, Snider, Litsch). Hopefully this reflects a strategy that JP will continue to follow as investing in 30+ guys is dangerous, 36+ extremely dangerous while the younger ones can have career years out of nowhere.

Blue in SK - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#191870) #

While the bomb to straight away centre was nice to see, the at bat I thought showed Snider's potential best was the one where he got his second RBI. It was only a single, but he hit a very tough pitch, low & away (looked like some sort of breaking pitch). Not sure if he was fooled and just got lucky with an excuse me swing or if he actually made a nice adjustment during the AB - through my rose colored glasses I think the latter.

sweat - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#191871) #

I think it makes a decent amount of sense for the Jays to have Snider, Lind, Wells, Rios and Overbay DHing some of the time. Probably we will see Bautista get some time there as well. This way you are keeping all of these guys busy and in the game with some time in the field. It also makes you think that SS and Catcher are the two main spots in question, not DH

Wildrose - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#191873) #

Here's a synopsis of JP with Wilner last night ;

-Will not trade young pitching- even though they seem to have an excess-too hard to get.

-Loves the group of players at Lansing

-Dwayne Murphy told him Moises Sierra at Lansing has the best outfield arm ever!

-Eckstein in J.P's 28 years of baseball one of the best guys ever

-Legally couldn't comment but Wilner and J.P. hinted strongly about Buffalo as new affiliate

-Baseball America is biased against the Jays

-Loves Jerolemans defence compares him to Brian Schnieder

-Wants Arecibia to work on plate discipline

-Bautista was brought here to be Rolen's caddy

-Hill is doing better

-Listed top 3 off-season priorities as such

#1 D.H.

#2 Another starter if need be

#3 SS- although would be happy with Mac and Scuts

-Said the outfield of the future is Snider , Rios and Wells ( not sure what that means for Lind but he's been taking grounders at first , his college position)

Good show , no stupid questions, Ricciardi thought it was the best group of callers in 7 years.

Wildrose - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#191874) #

Ricciardi also had some interesting things to say about tampering and Burnett.

Wildrose - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#191875) #

Lastly, Chris Dial over at Primer is doing a series on evaluating players so far this season. Dial looks at offence ,combined with defence, and compares positional players with their fellow peers. This is the proper way to look at a players overall value and it's not done often enough ( although I'm not sold on how he evaluates defensive value).

Jdog - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#191876) #

Wants Arecibia to work on plate discipline

Just to elaborate on this for people who haven't listened to the show. JP mentioned that Arencibia is going to the AFL with specific instructions to work the count and get used to hitting late in the count. JP mentioned that they talked with Arencibia and told him that they loved the year he put together and that they dont care what kind of numbers he puts up at the AFL , they simply want him to practise working the count and try to improve in the area. So if JPA doesn't mash in the AFL we know why.

Jays2010 - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#191877) #

Maybe it's just me, but if we are going to upgrade offensively in the offseason I think it makes perfect sense to move Overbay and shift Lind to 1B. I can't see Snider in the minors for more than 2 or 3 months, so I don't think it makes sense to sign someone such as Giambi for one yr and then not have a spot for Snider without a 6 man rotation between the OF/1B/DH slots. I say get the biggest OF/DH bat that makes sense and move Overbay. And PLEASE stop this talk about John McDonald as the everday SS. Along with DH, that is the position where we can get a massive offensive upgrade; simply acquiring JJ hardy, for example, would probably give us an average AL offence, with some room to grow. Even Khalil Greene/Rafael Furcal would be better risks than JMac...

Wildrose - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#191878) #

Thanks JDog that's correct. Here's a link to the show ( scroll down)

Wildrose - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#191879) #

Even Khalil Greene/Rafael Furcal would be better risks than JMac...

I like Furcal, but talk about risk, he's coming back from back surgery, Greene has also had some injury issues with a broken hand and we've seen what happened to Lyle Overbay with such an issue. It's tough there just isn't a lot of easy fixes to be had...

John Northey - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#191880) #

Huh. Dial's work shows Scutaro as the Jays MVP - #21 in the AL. How odd. His defense has been well above average overall and at short, while his bat (compared to SS) is above average. Maybe mixing him and Johnny Mac does make sense for 2009. Not sure how well it will work long term, but it is better than Eckstein or going with some random free agent. Good fallback position while keeping an eye open for a true star that can be aquired without blowing the wad.

Dave Rutt - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#191881) #

Good show , no stupid questions, Ricciardi thought it was the best group of callers in 7 years.

The weird tampering comments notwithstanding, I was thinking the same thing before Ricciardi came out with it, though I only listen to a handful of WsWJP every year. He did give a lot of vague GMy answers as usual, but there isn't really any way to avoid that, and otherwise it was a fantastic show.

Jays2010 - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#191882) #

In regards to what the AL records would be with a balanced schedule, in which each team plays every AL division 48 times, with 18 NL contests...I am using the current records vs divisions to project records over a 162 game schedule...obviously there are still many games to be played

TBay 99-63

LAA 99-63

BOS 98-64

CWS 88-74

NYY 88-74

TOR 87-75

MIN 83-79

So those scrappy Twins that Richard Griffin feels we should model after...

Anyway, we are in a playoff race now! Getting 4th place with these adjusted rankings is my goal and hopefully JP uses these figures to buy one more year...

Rich - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#191883) #

I would also like to see a lesser role for Overbay - he needs to be strictly platooned. Even at his best he is a good, not great, hitter at first base but he hits southpaws like he's Johnny Mac: .228 / .298 / .276. Good left-handed hitting firstbasemen like Giambi, Morneau, and Delgado are all far, far better against lefties. Considering Lind and Snider may also struggle here, I'd like to see Bautista play first against all lefties.

Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#191884) #

Sample size, Rich. Overbay had a significant reverse platoon split in 07. For his career, he's roughly .276/.317/.421 (BBRef's split data is not spitting out OBP right now).

Rich - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#191885) #

You may be right about sample size but the team's perfomance against lefties has been so poor this year that platooning Overbay may well have nudged the team a few games ahead in the standings. If he doesn't turn it around they can't possibly run him out there 150 times next season and expect to score enough runs.

Wildrose - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#191888) #

Huh. Dial's work shows Scutaro as the Jays MVP - #21 in the AL. How odd. His defense has been well above average overall and at short, while his bat (compared to SS) is above average.

If you scroll to the comments section Dial is taken to task about this and admits he has trouble fitting in utility players in this model.

FisherCat - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#191889) #

Good show , no stupid questions, Ricciardi thought it was the best group of callers in 7 years.

He really seemed to over-emphasize this point. I almost got the sense that he knows the clock is ticking and that this is, in all likelyhood, the final month of his tenure as Jays' GM.

ANationalAcrobat - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#191891) #

Anyone suggesting that Snider should start 09 in the majors (either at DH or in the OF with Overbay traded and Lind moved to 1B) should acknowledge the increased likelihood of Wilkerson, Stewart, and Mench types getting significant playing time. Those three players "earned" 229 PAs (621 OPS), 201 PAs (628 OPS), and 112 PAs (671 OPS). Covering mainly for the Vernon Wells injuries, the release of Frank Thomas (Stairs moved to DH from LF), and poor performance from Stairs at DH, a large number of those 542 PAs could have gone to a Snider type instead (MLB-ready guy in AAA.)

With Snider in AAA next year, we would be covered in the event of an injury to or poor performance from Rios, Wells, Lind, Overbay, or Giambi (or whoever else takes the DH position.) Otherwise, we risk giving 500 more PAs to sub-700 OPS types at OF, DH, and 1B positions.

As an added benefit, we would not be counting on a 21(!) year old rookie at a high offense position (LF or DH.)

Jdog - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#191892) #

Joe Inglett plays a pretty good LF/RF so that should not be a problem next year, if Hill is healthy which he appears he will be. In fact if you did have a Snider/Wells/Rios outfield and Wells went down with another injury..you simply move Rios over to center and then you could platoon Inglett and Bautista in LF.

Wildrose - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#191894) #

Anyone suggesting that Snider should start 09 in the majors (either at DH or in the OF with Overbay traded and Lind moved to 1B) should acknowledge the increased likelihood of Wilkerson, Stewart, and Mench types getting significant playing time. Those three players "earned" 229 PAs (621 OPS), 201 PAs (628 OPS), and 112 PAs (671 OPS). Covering mainly for the Vernon Wells injuries, the release of Frank Thomas (Stairs moved to DH from LF), and poor performance from Stairs at DH, a large number of those 542 PAs could have gone to a Snider type instead (MLB-ready guy in AAA.)

I think this is a good point. The 2009 Jays were really done in by the lack of adequate D.H. hitting and poor replacement outfielders pre Snider/Lind.

I find it strange that Overbay gets criticized, but Rios when measured against his peers and had a poorer season, gets a somewhat free ride.

Dez - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#191895) #

dan gordon - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#191896) #

I heard on the radio today that the Jays have the best record in the league since June 20th, when the managerial change was made. I don't think too many people are aware of that.

I'd prefer they not trade Overbay. He had some good numbers in 2006 and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that his hand still hasn't fully healed and that he hopes it will be better with another offseason. The team is too thin offensively to give him up unless they can use him to acquire an offensive upgrade, and given his subpar numbers this year, I doubt he has a a LOT of trade value. Depth is very important, as we have seen all too often over the last few seasons.

It has been great seeing Travis Snider, but I hope people aren't reading too much into his success so far in the majors (and in AAA for that matter). Very small sample size. Big league pitchers will adjust quickly. Remember how well Adam Lind hit in the majors when called up in late 2006, and then he hit very poorly in 2007. Hey I hope Snider can make it and have a great year next year for Toronto, but I am still thinking he will need some considerable AAA time, like 2-3 months at least in 2009. He sure looks like he is going to be a great hitter, though - I hope the Jays are able to keep him for more than 6 years.

Jays2010 - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#191897) #

I think stats such as OPS give Overbay way too much credit. I mean, there have to be at least 15 or 20 1B in both leagues that are superior hitters to Overbay (and I'm not counting guys like Giambi as 1B) - A guy like Ryan Howard may have an OPS within range of Overbay, but he is having a MUCH better season - its all about how many runs you're scoring/driving in, isn't it?

Trading Overbay is the big thing that JP HAS to do if he wants to upgrade the offence (other than at SS). It'll show that he can get rid of one of "his" guys, even if it is just because Oberbay's slugging is down because of John Danks...

This is probably my biggest problem with JP. He is way too stubborn and protective of his decisions and is slow to react when necessary for the better of his ballclub. I consider the Overbay acquisition a good trade and he gave him a fair contract as well - but when a guy may never slug the way he used to, a GM needs to swallow his pride and upgrade the position...

FisherCat - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#191898) #

I'm with the group that tends to believe that Snider should not be penciled in as the 2009 DH/OF. We saw what assuming did for the 2008 offense this past off-season.

I really think that JP (or replacment) can't assume anything from 2007 or 2008 is repeatable (i.e. starting & relief pitching, Inglett, Lind, Snider etc). If a #3 starter presents themself for 3yrs/$36 mil? If one of Thome, Giambi, Nomar, et al is still available come mid-January for 1yr/$11mil?

With maybe only a 2 year window of having arguably THE most reliable #1 starter (DOC) since Pedro circa 1998-2000, they really need to think outside the box this offseason!

christaylor - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#191899) #

Scutaro is definitely an oddity and I like this stat but it must overvalue Scoots, but these results again a raise question that's been in my mind: How much, if at all, has Scutaro helped the Blue Jays? Scutaro's OPS+ is 84, which is in the neighborhood of average at SS, but he's only played 42/125 games there and 84 doesn't look nearly as good at 2B/3B. His plus/minus is +7 at SS, +1 and +15 at 2B and 3B, respectively.

I think it is safe to say we'd rather have had a healthy Rolen/Hill play all the time Scoot's spent at 2B/3B but injuries do happen and I haven't seen any one stat that summarizes Scutaro's contribution in an intuitive way. So while it is nice to have an around replacement level bat ready to go at every position but C/CF, it'd probably be better to just have a better constructed bench. Perhaps the Jays are headed this way? Batista can take 3B, but what about the rest? Does the team try to move Hill back to SS and let Inglett play 2B (which might be a good idea given that Inglett has hit better this year than Hill has in any year of his career). I don't particularly like the idea of a J-Mac/Scoots tandem at SS and Hill shouldn't be losing any playing time to Inglett. Something has to give and while this stat by Dial makes a case for Scutaro, he might have a larger value to a national league team where he could help in the constant quest to not have a pitcher bat via the double switch. I think a J-Mac/Scoots platoon sound like an even worse idea than the Clayton/JMac and Eckstein/JMac experiments... it'll result in JMac playing everyday and not hitting a lick and another year of a the Jays having a pitcher bat who happens to play SS. Not good, even with a big bopper at DH, Lind at 1B and a on fire Snider manning LF.

John Northey - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#191900) #

Ryan Howard: 236/325/502 for a 109 OPS+
Lyle Overbay: 272/364/417 for a 107 OPS+

Overbay is hitting for a higher average and has a higher OBP vs Howard with the Kingman type numbers (tons of power, no average). Howard's OBP is helped by his 13 intentional walks vs Overbay's 3. I'd rather have the guy who is a top flight defensive player and a higher OBP over the raw slugger. Difference is that Howard has a lifetime OPS+ of 140 while Overbay's is 110, thus if a one-on-one trade occurred I'd do it in a heartbeat.

Thus Howard's year is far more disappointing than Overbay's. There is no way that Overbay, offensively, should be in eyeshot of Howard let alone having a better year when both are on off-years.

As to the cry of 'we must up the offense'. Well, yes, that would help but outside of SS and getting someone to DH/1B who is a killer slugger I don't see how we'd do it. Any trade will have to drop our defense a notch, and the free agents available are (most likely) too expensive for a year or two's use. I think it all comes down to how badly does Rogers want to win? If they up the budget by $20 million a year we could get a Teixeira or Manny in. However, we run the risk of having Snider trapped in AAA or trading a guy for pennies on the dollar (or paying to get rid of Overbay).

I'm of the view that I'd like to plan for the long term. This team has played very well since Cito took over and Lind moved into LF. Snider looks darn good. We have two catching prospects who will be ready by mid-season 2009. We have pitching up the wazoo (counted 10 guys in the pen). This is why I think a RH slugger who is marginal on defense would be ideal to bring in. Find a couple of AAAA guys who can hit to play the outfield in AAA. Look to Japan for talent that is ML ready but would be around a 100-110 OPS+ (thus cheap and ready to fill in for the outfield if needed).

Defense & pitching, mixed with an offense that should be over 100 for OPS+ if healthy is what we have right now. The sub-80 OPS+ guys will be gone (Thomas, Zaun, Wilkerson, Mench, Stewart) other than McDonald and maybe Thigpen (I'm sure a better option will be found pre-2009). Blowing a fortune in prospects or blocking top prospects is not the way to win long term. Giving Snider a full shot in 2009, looking for backup guys who can play who haven't been given shots recently (Phelps fits here). That is what the Jays need to do. If some team is desperate for relievers then dump 3-4 guys on them and get a decent prospect. But don't waste the young talent or blow the budget just to feel good. We are in the AL East. That means we need tons of homegrown talent to survive and until that talent is ready blowing $20 million or stacks of prospects to try to contend just ain't going to work.

Ozzieball - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#191901) #

Nomar? Seriously?

I think you just forfeited your right to criticize Riccardi or pretend you understand baseball in any capacity. Why not just suggest Mo Vaughn? He also used to be pretty good.

Dez - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#191902) #

Dan, what you heard on the radio must have been wrong. A quick check on the standings on June 20th - the Jays were 35-40 and the Rays were 43-30. The Jays have gone 38-26 since then, while the Rays have gone 42-23. I'd expect some other teams are better than 12 games over since June 20th (eg the Angels, Twins)

christaylor - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#191903) #

"Good show , no stupid questions, Ricciardi thought it was the best group of callers in 7 years.

He really seemed to over-emphasize this point. I almost got the sense that he knows the clock is ticking and that this is, in all likelyhood, the final month of his tenure as Jays' GM."

Fisher Cat, how does this comment make any sense? One compliment about what was actually a very good show? Weighted against several soliloquies about how his job isn't life or death and if he's fired as Jays GM today, he'll have another plum baseball job tomorrow (which is certainly true)? Really the show was just an average show, just that the no nut jobs who ape Richard Griffen were absent. It has always made me wonder why the fan590 just couldn't get a decent/competent call screener to know who's going to be a nut job on air (it isn't hard, just talk to the callers and bait them a little bit to see if they get in a huff/spout drunk talk or are reasonable/rational). Nuts talking to McCown/Wilner is one thing but to the GM of the Jays, I don't blame him if he thinks "Canadian baseball fans need educating"... given the number of nuts who don't get their facts straight or just want to bring up the same stupid points (Tulo! Kazmir! You're so bad at drafting, JP!) that get on the air in a usual WWJP, this show was conspicuous with their absence. Maybe him getting yelled by some guy named Greg last time finally embarrassed someone.

Anyway, Richard Griffin's silly "Here's four points for and against firing JP" article where he just concludes "of course this means he should be fired" in the last paragraph (surprise) and silly WWJP callers and perhaps the dolt who does the Hit List for BP... there are no vultures circling around JP and the clock on JP is at two years and counting. It'd be an obvious and colossal mistake to fire JP at this point. The offense disappointed but fire a GM when he has assembled the best pitching in the game? That'd be the worst firing since DePodesta. At any rate, this hasn't be an organization that's been keen on wasting money and why they'd waste money playing a GM who is at least average who they've got under contract to 2010 is beyond me.

Sorry if I'm taking your comment out of context Fisher Cat, but I'm just kind of tired of reading/hearing about how JP should be fired. Sure there's been no playoffs yet, sure the team isn't there, but it isn't like the Blue Jays aren't a good team, they are... and that's obvious to anyone who looks closely, anyone except Richard Griffin and his legions of unthinking followers, I suppose.

christaylor - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#191904) #

"A guy like Ryan Howard may have an OPS within range of Overbay, but he is having a MUCH better season - its all about how many runs you're scoring/driving in, isn't it?"

Jays2010, not to be pithy but runs scoring/driving in is all about luck (clutchness) and the type of lineup you're in.

dan gordon - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#191905) #

Dez - right, the Rays and Angels are both better than the Jays since June 20th. The Twins are also 12 games over .500 in that timeframe, so they would be tied for 3rd best record in the league. I heard it on 680 News, a Toronto station. That's a pretty bad mistake they made.

zeppelinkm - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#191906) #

Chris: Just as you "debunked" Fishercats "feeling" that JP Riccardi is close to done, how do you state, with confidence that his clock is at 2+ years?

Also, it is gross exageration to say that firing JP right now would be an "OBVIOUS AND COLOSSAL" mistake. Why ? There is no basis for a comment like that when there is no context surrounding it.

Wildrose - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#191907) #

Rios hasn't had two straight poor seasons, and still has a better OPS than Overbay. He's also 4 years younger, and is not making as much money (yet). The free pass is somewhat justified, especially when compared to Overbay.

Fair enough. I will say that playing through an obvious injury as Overbay did in 2007 gets a guy a mulligan in my books. Still it is factually correct ( according to Dial) that in 2008, when defence/ offence is combined Overbay has indeed had a better overall season than Rios ( I was surprised to see that A.L RF actually outhit AL first baseman as a whole, that is very unusual) when compared to his peers. I do think some criticism of Rios is warranted. For the record ,with Gene Tenace riding his at times space cadet #ss , I do think he'll bounce back in 2009 to his career norms.

Mylegacy - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#191908) #

Several observations.

JP ain't goin' nowhere, period. He reminds me of a boss I had years ago. He started out pretty lousy, stumbled around for a while and then started to put it together. Unfortunately, by the time he had put it back on track he was so disliked they fired him. It was a shame as he had become very good. JP - has become very good. In fact I'm really looking forward to his three 1st round picks next June (two for AJ).

Rolen - he's really stinging the ball lately. IF, he has found a way to keep his shoulder working and a way to swing that keeps it stable - he'd be a FANTASTIC improvement over his production this year. Defensively, wow! That throw from his knees just the other side of the third base line the other night was - wow!

Overbay - I broke my hand a few years ago in a mountain biking accident and it took over a year to get back to normal. IF, his had is better we could keep him. BUT - I'd really like to see Lind there and some stud DH (if such an animal exists) brought in.

Litsch - ever look at that guys wrist and forearms? He's built like a blacksmith.

Halladay, Marcum, Litsch, Purcey, McGowan, Cecil, Romeo, Mills - that's a well above average set of starters.

Ryan, Downs, League, Carlson, Wolfe, Tallet, Accardo and Janssen eventually (fingers crossed) - that's a well above average set of relievers.

Wells, Rios, Lind, Rolen (the way he is lately - or even better), a (healthy) Overbay and Snider make a great heart of a batting order. Leggett or a healthy Hill at 2nd are very good. Barajas is a better hitter than I had hoped - Arencibia & Jeroloman will be an excellent long term fix at catcher and there are others Jaspe, Talley, Collins etc. that might force there way into the fight. Also in the minors - and due to the bigs by at least September next year are 1st basman Cooper, Aman 1st/DH, Dopirak 1st, and Campbell 2nd/3rd. Lots more lower down both hitters and pitchers. Literally TONS of pitchers on the way!

christaylor - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#191909) #

I'm not sure what he heard on the radio, but since July 20th the Jays are 26-16 for .620 winning percentage. So that could have been the mistake July 20th instead of June 20th. Although someone in MLB must have done better than that over the last 42 games... I haven't checked.

Matthew E - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#191910) #

Here's some food for thought for everyone. This is exactly the kind of thing that, for some reason, fascinates me.

- In January of 1988, the Jays told George Bell that his new contract was contingent on his becoming a full-time DH.
- On February 17th, Bell signed his new contract (and then there was a famous blow-up in spring training as Bell refused to DH; you probably remember that part).

But there was a noteworthy event that happened in between those two things. Can anybody supply the noteworthy event that I'm thinking of?

Bid - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#191911) #

Mylegacy & Christaylor: You have me convinced, JP will (justly) stay. Of course Griffin's wild guess about Cito moving into the GM's office was pretty stirring, too.

I'm enjoying the team nearly every game now. It's feels well-managed, they look ready and relaxed. They're hitting clumps. So, what kind of manager is Cito?

Gibbons for all his 'player's manager' virtues--where does that apostrophe go?--inspired no real-fear-of-falling-short of his manager's expectations...Bobby Cox...Joe Torre, there's two, for different reasons. Will John someday be a manager with this attribute? It's not such an exclusive club...Billy Martin...Kelly, Herzog...Jim Leyland, gotta love him... Cito's got it. It makes a big difference to this group of players, apparently. It would be great--perhaps beyond possibility--for them to go on a scary run. The season has definitely improved for me.

Mylegacy - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#191912) #

What happened between those two dates...er...sh*t...I've no idea. Wait, did someone tell him, "No Dominican can be a DH and still be a man" Bell had that famous Latino machismo that is such a plus and a negative. I LOVED Bell - I never saw his make a mistake in the field becasue he didn't try. I NEVER saw a guy more focused with two strikes and I never saw a guy that loved the game as much as he did.

BUT...what happened bewteen thsoe two dates - I gotta know, I gotta know!

Marc Hulet - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#191913) #

Travis Snider was born on Feb. 2, 1988 in Kirkland, Washington. Is that it?

Matthew E - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#191914) #

Marc has it. That was fast!

Thomas - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#191915) #

Suppose they fired JP and then hired Pat Gillick, which is a rumor that continues to not die (much like the 'rumors' about Gaston potentially coming back wouldn't die), would it still be an obvious and colossal mistake? I don't think so.

I wouldn't want Gillick as the GM. He did a fine job here, but he's got a reputation for bleeding drive the farm systems of the last couple of organisations where he's been the GM (Seattle fans complain non-stop about this when you mention his name). He's got other postiives and usually surrounds himself with good baseball people, but I'd prefer the Jays look for somebody new who might not have that disadvantage. I couldn't see Gillick staying here more than a few years given his age, so I fear that would compound his perceived tendency to bleed a farm system in search of a pennant.

Magpie - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#191916) #

Travis Snider was born on Feb. 2, 1988

On the 106th anniversary of the birth of James Joyce (my own personal hero)? - excellent! That is way cool.

It's also Groundhog Day, for those of you who'd rather not get to grips with the commodious vicus of recirculation that brings us back to Howth Castle and Environs.

zeppelinkm - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#191917) #

Thomas: Good points. I was just trying to isolate how you can't just blindly say that firing JP would be a obvious and colossal mistake, without knowing the other decisions that are made regarding his departure. And bringing in Gillick, while it could be a mistake, would it be an obvious and colossal one?

brent - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#191918) #

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080904&content_id=3417138&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

This is one reason to not sign Greene and to let Overbay re-establish his value next season. The time to dump Overbay was as soon as he came off the DL last year. You have to wait for a rebound at this point or else your just selling low and at a great cost.

christaylor - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#191919) #

Zepplinkm, the number 2 years (I don't believe I ever said the +) comes from the number of years left on his contract. That's all, it wasn't a statement of confidence, but rather a statement of fact.

There was (perhaps brief) context provided for the "obvious and colossal", comment, first his assembling of the pitching staff (the second was the DePodesta firing). Outside of Roy Halladay and McGowan, every part of the best pitching in the major was assembled by JP. He's been saying for years that pitching was his focus. When someone does what they are trying to do, in this case, collect pitching and make the organization pitching rich, it is a little more than ridiculous to fire him when he's successful. As has been pointed out here many times, there's no method for a GM to control luck on the field. They Jays aren't far from the Rays/Angels. Looking beyond W/L records, that becomes, as I said, obvious.

On the re-hiring of Pat Gillick. I'm really not sure how I'd feel about that. I don't think he's a significant better GM for the game at this time and while the situation the Jays are in here does suit his particular skill set (taking teams over the hump), JP has, easily in my mind, but that's just an opinion... earned the right to serve the time left on his clock/contract.

Your certainly right to point out that there's something not stated in my post - I'm reacting to the many I've heard to call for a tear-down. That's the sort of firing I'm reacting to those who want to fire JP, tear down this team and 'rebuild'... that'd be ridiculous yet so many people tend to spout that view. Like many other view on JP (see: he has no plan) it is just so terribly wrong; yet a highly successful meme apparently. One that does rub me the wrong way. I don't mean to seem to be "debunking" (with the scare quotes)... I'm just a "reactionary".

christaylor - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#191920) #

Matthew E is the event you're thinking of the announcement of the collusion settlement? I was too young to to truly appreciate such things as a kid and have never linked this with Bell until now, but perhaps I'm off base.

christaylor - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#191921) #

Hehe... I was thinking casually. I forgot that with George "Kiss my purple butt" Bell there probably was no cause. He was just Belly being Belly... hmm, I wonder if Manny idolized Bell. The similarities are intriguing.

christaylor - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#191922) #

I'd just like to mention that more people ought to use "nested mode" (drop down menu at the bottom) and click on "reply to this"... it removes the need to have to preface comments of the user one is replying to. I'm not sure why the site defaults to "flat" but it seems to, even though nested comments are much more informative.

Just a off-topic technical point that I've never seen come up.

grjas - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#191923) #

The next one to two years are critical for the direction of the team, given Halladay's status. Only reaching the playoffs will convince Halladay to stay, and even that may not be enough. Conversely, if we lose him we're a sub 500 team, and it's time for the fire sale.

So: time to go for broke:

dropping Thomas and ultimately losing AJ will free up over $20 million
trading Overbay (even if we eat some contract) and dropping the likes of Zaun should free up at least another $5-7mm

Assuming management increases the budget enough to cover planned raises to the rest of the team (I know, Rogers can be cheap but..). That leaves about $25-$30million to spend on:

a solid DH
a number 3 starter who eats innings
a backup catcher

Lind to first. Snider to left. (He's ready).

Now you have a team that has better offense than most of this year at LF, DH and 1st- the power positions- without giving up much defence or increasing the payroll. Shake Ted the skin flint for a few dollars, and you can throw in a new short stop too.

We've been waiting for 15 years for something, and now is the time to go for it. If Halladay leaves before we make the playoffs, it'll be 10 more years of boredom at the Rogers Centre, and definitely time for a new pastime.

scottt - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#191924) #

Jays2010, not to be pithy but runs scoring/driving in is all about luck (clutchness) and the type of lineup you're in.

Not reallty. Howard has 119 RBIs and 126 hits. Overbay has 59 RBIs and 128 hits. The difference is 27 homeruns. It's fair to compare 2 guys playing at the same position regardless of where they hit. If Overbay had 39 homeruns, he'd be in the cleanup spot too.

Overbay and Ryan are 2 guys that could be traded. You won't get more for Overbay if you wait because he'll only have 1 year left on his contract.
Since Lind hits left, you can't platoon him with Overbay. That's not really a logjam in the outfield since you always need a 4th outfielder, but the whole point is having Lind, Rios, Wells and Snider in the lineup everyday. If you can manage that with another slugger in the DH spot, you should be able to get away with some loss of defense at first. Personally, I'd try to improve at SS.

Btw, how fast can Cooper make it? 2010?

John Northey - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#191925) #

Cooper made it to A+ this year and I would expect, given he hit 315/382/446 there, to see him in AA to start 2009. He is on a very fast track, as Snider was, and if he hits for an 850 or better OPS I suspect we'll see him in AAA by mid-season and, if he continues to do well, the majors for either September or 2010 depending on the Jays situation.

I see the pitchers Mills and Cecil also on a fast track with Cecil having a shot at the rotation whenever someone goes down (injuries or ineffectiveness where the Jays would feel he'd get 5 or more starts) while Mills starts in AAA with a shot at the majors as well if he tears up the leagues like he did this year (1.10 ERA in AA after a 1.35 in A+ and 2.55 in A).

Next year we have 2 catchers, a second baseman, and two pitchers who are hot prospects who will be in AAA and fighting to earn a slot on the team while a first baseman could sneak into the picture with a killer season. This is what is called a very good situation.

Ducey - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#191926) #

John, don't count your Blue Jays until they hatch.

Remember, Howard Battle? Maybe Josh Phelps?, etc.

As well - TINSTAAPP

I hope they make it too, but...some won't.

christaylor - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#191927) #

"Jays2010, not to be pithy but runs scoring/driving in is all about luck (clutchness) and the type of lineup you're in.

"Not reallty. Howard has 119 RBIs and 126 hits. Overbay has 59 RBIs and 128 hits. The difference is 27 homeruns. It's fair to compare 2 guys playing at the same position regardless of where they hit. If Overbay had 39 homeruns, he'd be in the cleanup spot too."

Scott, comparisons are always fair because in the end every team has to field a player at each position, but Overbay and Howard are different types of hitters. Take a leadoff hitter in LF and slugger in LF. Is it fair to compare those two hitters? A high OBP low SLG lower of the order hitter isn't going to have a lot of runs scored or driven in. A cleanup hitter hitting behind hitters with OBPs all north of .350 and a 5th hitter behind with a SLG above 500 is going to have a ton of RBI. Apples to Oranges.

The difference isn't 27 home runs. It is the OBP of the three guys hitting ahead of Howard. If it wasn't high, Howard might have as little as only 27 more RBI than Overbay. With RBI and Runs scored, line up context ALWAYS matters when making a comparison.

Adding defense, Overbay is probably more valuable to his team than Howard. He just plays a very different role offensively in a *very* different line up context (not to mention in a neutral rather than a hitters park). So in a sense, while a comparison might be fair because their both 1B, their OPS+ is very similar, looking RBI and R is never context independent and the value of the players is entangled with the rest of them. R/RBI are about the worst hitting metrics around. By far.

greenfrog - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#191928) #

Keep Overbay, I say. The Jays need offensive (and defensive) depth. Players get injured. Old players go into decline. Young players have setbacks.

IMO the real issue is SS, 3B, C, and maybe DH (depending on how the Snider situation unfolds). Why? Because:

- Rolen is a huge injury risk for 2009

- I love McDonald's defense, but I think the perennial debate is going to continue: given that the Jays have a lot of average to slightly above-average hitters, so can they afford to carry a weak-hitting shortstop (along with offensive weaknesses at catcher and 3B)?

- Barajas is a 33-year-old career 242/290/411 hitter. He's had a nice year for the Jays (27 points of OPS above his career average), but with Barajas as our starting catcher, the position creates an offensive liability - if we continue to be weak at SS and 3B.

On the plus side, the Jays can field a pretty strong lineup at the remaining positions: LF, CF, RF, 1B, 2B and maybe DH.

Jays2010 - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#191929) #

The difference isn't 27 home runs. It is the OBP of the three guys hitting ahead of Howard. If it wasn't high, Howard might have as little as only 27 more RBI than Overbay. With RBI and Runs scored, line up context ALWAYS matters when making a comparison.

I'm not disagreeing at all about rbi/runs being related to the batters that one has around them. Howard is in a better lineup, so how bet we compare Overbay to someone like Adam Lind. Lind batted near to bottom of the lineup most of the year and the reason he is hitting in the middle of the order now is because he is a better option than Overbay/Rolen etc. Lind has a higher OPS because he has slugged much higher than Overbay, though he draws far fewer walks. My basic point is that I consider the difference between Lind and Overbay's offensive seasons to be greater than the difference between their respective OPS's. Lind is scoring and driving in runs and while I am not saying its a great metric, OPS isn't a perfect metric either. OPS, in my opinion, makes Overbay look better than he actually is and makes guys like Wells and Lind this year look worse than they actually are...

Chuck - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#191930) #

OPS, in my opinion, makes Overbay look better than he actually is and makes guys like Wells and Lind this year look worse than they actually are...

One of the flaws of OPS is that it weights OBP and SLG equally when a point of OBP is actually worth more than a point of SLG. Thus, OPS actually undervalues high-OBP, low-SLG players like Overbay.

Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2008 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#191931) #

It's hard to believe but the Jays effectively still control their own destiny, what with the two remaining games against Tampa, the seven games against Boston, and the six games that the Rays face the Sox. Could the Jays run the table against Tampa and Boston? You wouldn't bet on it, of course, but it would be a little bit less than a miracle.

There is the small matter of the AL Central runner-up, but I'd take my chances.

christaylor - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#191932) #

As a heads up - Morrow is pitching a tremendous game against the Yankees. Something special is happening in his 1st major leagues start, go check it out right now, anyway you can.

JustinD - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#191933) #

I should never be alerted to such things. I am a curse. Literally, the second I turned on the TV he gave up his first hit. Last year when McGowan was throwing his no-no, the second I turned it on my computer I saw him give up a hit. I also saw Hughes only throw one pitch of his no-no before he left with an injury.

I did see Burnett no-hit the Pads way back when though.

TamRa - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 01:52 AM EDT (#191934) #

on the question of "best records since X"

Since the first game of Cito 2.0 (AL always bolded):
(listed by games over .500)

Mets - 18
Rays - 17
Angels - 17
Brewers - 15
Astros - 15
Twins - 14
Jays - 12
Cubs - 12
Red Sox - 9
White Sox - 9

The Jays lost the first two games under Cito, so if you drop two days off this calculation you get:

Mets - 18
Rays - 17
Angels - 15
Brewers - 15
Jays - 14
Astros - 14
Twins - 12
Red Sox - 11
White Sox - 11
Cubs - 10

Still, want some bragging rights? check out everything since July 7:

Mets - 15
Astros - 15
Jays - 13
Red Sox - 12
Brewers - 12
Cubs - 12
Angels - 11
Indians - 11
Rays - 9

The Jays are .591 under Cito 2.0, a pace for 96 wins in a full season. They are .609 in the last 64 games (99 wins) and .627 in the last 51 games (102)

Maintaining that last pace through the end of the season would net you a season ending total of 88 wins matching the highest team total since '93

Jays2010 - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 03:46 AM EDT (#191935) #

One of the flaws of OPS is that it weights OBP and SLG equally when a point of OBP is actually worth more than a point of SLG. Thus, OPS actually undervalues high-OBP, low-SLG players like Overbay

About 10 days ago, Howard had an OPS around .790, at a point where he was already over 100 rbis and 70 runs. Overbay was probably around .780 at that point. I think I can say with near certainty that Howard would have far more rbis and a few more runs than Overbay hitting in our lineup. And it is not luck, he always drives in runs and he'd always drive in a lot of runs in any lineup (though it would be lower outside of Philly).

I can also say with absolute certainty that Overbay would not have 100 rbis (though he may have 70 runs) in Philly's lineup. There is NO way that 10 days ago Overbay was having as useful of an offensive season as Howard. I am not counting defence, because clearly Overbay is a very good defender. I am not even saying that I want Ryan Howard necessarily (though I wouldn't be opposed to it). I am just saying that Howard is far more useful offensively in ANY lineup than Overbay (and I'm talking about this year's version of Howard).

By the same token, I will say that Lind looks like a guy (kind of like Raul Ibanez) who may have an OPS similar to Overbay, but he will be more useful offensively; he will drive in more runs and probably score around the same - Lind is more of an independent offensive producer, while Overbay is more dependent on his teammates and, quite frankly, that only goes so far...

brent - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 05:52 AM EDT (#191936) #

That's six wins in a row John Brattain! http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/chasing-our-tails/

You can start cutting JP some slack.

timsevs - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 07:03 AM EDT (#191937) #

It seems that a lot of people have said that the Jays need to go out and acquire a big scary bat this winter but surely the primary object (as it has been for too many seasons now) is to get a long-term replacement for SS. With Snider and Cooper on the near horizon is it really best to tie up a lot of money in a guy that may well block their place in the lineup?

There appears to be a consensus that Brandon Wood needs a change in scenery so what would it take for us to get him from the Angels?

scottt - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#191938) #

Overbay has an OPS of .783, Rolen .749. Not a huge difference. Overbay has been alternating month of .750 and .850 (more or less) while Rolen has been over .800 every month except for a pitiful July of .477.

Maybe Overbay will bounce back next year. Maybe not., He's always been a double hitter. I think Rolen can use the rest more. They're both superb defenders, but neither deserve to leave the bottom of the order. I don't mind carrying both next year, but Rolen should be rested regularly and I'd like to platoon Overbay. I don't know how good Bautista is at first, but he's looked very good at third. His offensive numbers are comparable.

Lineup construction will be another issue. Inglett and Scutaro have become regular at the top of the order. Hill has never produced in the top of the order. McDonald is better suited to the last spot. One thing I hated with Gibbons was the day-to-day roster move. Cito doesn't thinker much, so I don't know if we'll see Rios leading off again.

John Northey - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#191939) #

For more fun with numbers...
In games Travis Snider has played - 4-1 (130 win pace). Since Snider was called up - 6-1 (139 win pace). The one loss was the 2-1 game where Snider scored the one run after hitting a double.

When John McDonald starts: 28-18 (99 win pace)
When Adam Lind starts: 40-28 (95 win pace)
When Barajas starts: 52-36 (96 win pace)

Those are 3 guys who really took over when Cito came in, while being behind others on the depth charts under Gibbons.

Gibbons favorites...
When Greg Zaun starts: 24-33
When David Eckstein starts: 32-38
When Shannon Stewart starts: 22-22

Not pretty eh? The record with Stewart starting was better than expected though.

The number one thing for a manager is who they put in that lineup each day. Those 3 choices that Gibbons regularly made cost the Jays in the first half. Cito has had a bit of luck, but I figure if Gibbons pushed hard he could've kept Lind up. Gibbons also could've left Barajas in more and played Eckstein less. But he didn't and he is no longer a ML manager.

Lets hope Snider sticks and is for real. While I don't see the Jays winning 130 games anytime soon this team is looking more and more like it could be a real contender in 2009. Of course, I've felt that way for years and been wrong ever since 1993 but still...

Chuck - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#191940) #

surely the primary object (as it has been for too many seasons now) is to get a long-term replacement for SS

When asked on a radio show this week, RIcciardi ranked the team's biggest off-season needs in this order:
1. DH
2. SP
3. SS

I get the sense that the team is willing to live with Scutaro/McDonald for another year. Two years ago, Clayton was brought in and that was a predictable disaster. Last year Eckstein was brought in and Gaston didn't like him. Ricciardi may not even bother trying for an upgrade in 2009, focusing instead on the other two fronts.

scottt - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#191941) #

I wouldn't be surprised if Boston beats the Rays to the finish line. Longoria is about to return from a broken wrist. Crawford could be gone for the year and Upton is playing with a torn labrum to his non-throwing shoulder.

Not that Boston is injury free or anything. Pedroia is the new Red Sox cleanup hitter. In 18 AB there, he's slugging 1.222. Unreal.

scottt - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#191942) #

That might be the problem. SS is always at the bottom of the list. Clayton and Eckstein were marginal improvement. I'm all for upgrading, but you have to be willing to spend. A long contract shouldn't be an issue, the Jays have no prospect who can play the position. Starting pitching is always very expensive and too many teams are desperate for pitching. By the time the Jays look for a short stop, I'd be surprised if there's anything left that is a definite upgrade.

John Northey - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#191943) #

Checking Scutaro and McDonald...
Lets weigh their fielding by year so past years are mixed in but at a weaker level than this year. A simple method is to use a 5-4-3-2-1 method for 2008-2007-2006-2005-2004 (ie: 2008 counts 5 times as much as 2004). This way we get a larger sample but still factor in recent performance more than older performances.

Scutaro: adjRZR = .812 with .327 OOZ plays per 9 innings
McDonald: adjRZR = .834 with .475 OOZ plays per 9 innings

For comparison...
Eckstein: adjRZR = .810 with .376 OOZ plays per 9 innings
Adam Everett: adjRZR = .872 with .456 OOZ plays per 9 innings
Tulowitzki: adjRZR = .866 with .415 OOZ plays per 9 innings

This year's leader in RZR is Miguel Tejada at .871 while the trailers are Steven Drew and Jason Bartlett both at .804 Just 3 guys are above 850. McDonald's 834 average would put him 11th out of the 20 qualifiers, Scutaro's 812 would be just above the #17 slot of 20. Since 2004 (when The Hardball Times starts tracking this stuff) the peak is 891 (Everett '06) and the bottom is Jhonny Peralta '07 at 763.

So in truth McDonald is about average in defense for a ML shortstop based on the balls he gets to. Bit of a surprise. Scutaro isn't that far behind and is at 868 this year vs McDonald's 808. Using Scutaro at short might just be a good idea it turns out eh?

As to offense...
In the majors the OPS range for SS in 2008 (regulars only) is from 661 for Bobby Crosby to 926 for Hanley Ramirez. 17 guys qualified thus #9 is the median and is Ryan Theroit at 750 (FYI: Jeter is #8 at 755). Scutaro is at 689 while McDonald is at 546. Scutaro's figure is ahead of just 3 regular shortstops. McDonald's is over 100 OPS points behind the regulars.

So, we have league average defense and well below league average offense at short. The offense isn't surprising but the defense is.

Frank Markotich - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#191944) #

Besides the fact that OPS is a flawed and simplistic way to do analysis, you have to look at the whole picture, and that includes defence. Overbay is a very good defensive first baseman and the runs he saves defensively count just as much in assessing his value as the runs he may not create offensively compared to some better hitters.

I'm nor arguing that Overbay is a premier player, simply saying that you have to look at the total package.

rtcaino - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#191945) #

'Cito doesn't thinker much'

Gibbons never struck me as much of a thinker either.

Wildrose - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#191946) #

So in truth McDonald is about average in defense for a ML shortstop based on the balls he gets to. Bit of a surprise. Scutaro isn't that far behind and is at 868 this year vs McDonald's 808. Using Scutaro at short might just be a good idea it turns out eh?

Not really. There's lots of problems with this type of analysis. RZR is a blunt, crude defensive metric. In many ways quoting RZR is the equivalent of using runs or RBI as a coarse measurement of offence.

The better defensive metrics ( UZR and Fielding Bible +/- ) include adjustments, amongst other things for ball types (e.g if the ball is a liner, soft grounder etc..), the handness of the batter ( e.g. the second basemen playing in the hole when a lefty is up) , the number of outs ( e.g. the infield playing back with 2 outs) and ball park factors ( the ball carries better on artificial turf) .

Quite a different story emerges when the proper adjustments are made. As we can see, from the period of 2005-2007 using Fielding Bible data ,McDonald is indeed + 33 plays above average during this time period and Scutaro -33 below.

When you adjust for innings played and convert into runs McDonald is + 20 runs above average defensively during a typical season as a regular in this time period, Scutaro is -23, so no, they simply are not similar levels of fielders. I urge caution when using such a coarse instrument as RZR in making definitive judgements.

Jays2010 - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#191947) #

In regards to acquiring a true starting SS, I know JP was quoted as saying it isn't his biggest priority. More than anything else, I think he just said that to be diplomatic because he has two incumbent SS's and he does not want to offend them, or all the fans that love JMac. He does not have a DH and he knows he'll need one SP if AJ opts out. I suspect the real order is SS, DH and then SP but he won't overpay. And Hardy, Green, Furcal, Renteria and Cabrera are more or less the only options, other than trading for a prospect like Brandon Wood or Jason Donald. SS has to be the first focus because JJ Hardy, for example, would be a massive offensive upgrade over what we have been using and the DH slot will be a short-term fix anyway. They won't block David Cooper or any other prospect long term.

scottt - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#191948) #

Barajas is a 33-year-old career 242/290/411 hitter. He's had a nice year for the Jays (27 points of OPS above his career average), but with Barajas as our starting catcher, the position creates an offensive liability - if we continue to be weak at SS and 3B.

Gregg Zaun is a career 250 .343 .385 hitter. Toronto took Zaun when he was coming off an inflated year in Colorado (OPS ..811) following two poor years in Houston (OPS under .600) and made him a 33-year-old starter for the first time in his career. Last year, the Jays went after Barajas but had to settle for Zaun. Given the prospect situation, I have no problems with extending Barajas until a new starter emerge.

Wildrose - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#191949) #

Lets weigh their fielding by year so past years are mixed in but at a weaker level than this year

I should add this is a good approach John is using. A bigger sample size especially with something as nebulous as defence is to be applauded. The problem in this model is with the data being input.

I'd probably combine UZR and +/- in looking for a better result, but the problem is that UZR is only released on an ad-hoc basis and +/- is available , but you have to pay.

Chuck - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#191950) #

I have no problems with extending Barajas

There is no need to extend Barajas. The team has an option on him for 2009 that I'd imagine they'll exercise.

Chuck - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#191951) #

And Hardy, Green, Furcal, Renteria and Cabrera are more or less the only options

I'm not sure exactly how Hardy is an option. He has been discussed in these parts as a nice-to-have, but there is nothing motivating the Brewers (that I am aware of) to want to unload him any time soon.

Jays2010 - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#191952) #

I'm not sure exactly how Hardy is an option. He has been discussed in these parts as a nice-to-have, but there is nothing motivating the Brewers (that I am aware of) to want to unload him any time soon.

Well it could make sense in that we have pitching depth and Milwaukee will probably be losing Sabathia and Sheets. A Marcum or Litsch trade for Hardy (we may have to add more, who knows) could benefit both teams, since a lot of people seem to think that Hardy is available in the right offseason trade with Escobar in the wings. Of course, if we don't resign AJ or acquire another vet pitcher then I doubt JP would move any of his key pitchers for a SS. All the other major SS's such as Rollins, Reyes, Ramirez and Tejada have not been mentioned in trade talks, so I wouldn't count them as potentially available.

Sheldon - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#191953) #

What a game....it had its share of frustrating moments. In the end I had no faith in Zaun, but he deliveredin a big way!

7 in a row!!!

AWeb - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#191955) #

THAT was fun too! How's it go again? Going...going....Zaun!

And that's why we are still watching "meaningless" baseball in September. Awesome finish. What's that, 7 slams this year by 7 different players?

John Northey - Saturday, September 06 2008 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#191959) #

Thanks for the link Wildrose. The main reason I use RZR is the fact most fielding metrics are unavailable or provide no data beyond mass groupings ala Fielding Bible +/- and I didn't think of looking for that one due to it not being very detailed and I'd have assumed McDonald and Scutaro wouldn't make any leaderboards due to their limited playing time.

RZR I view as the 'batting average' of fielding. Taking chances and successes without factoring in anything else. As a comparison if all I know about hitter A and hitter B is that hitter A had a 300 average and B had a 250 average I'd assume (unless more data was available) that A was the better hitter. If the averages were consistent I'd be more confident. However, B might have a 400 OBP due to tons of walks while A is at 325 for OBP thus shifting the argument if those stats were made available. Then if you find out B also had more power, say a 400 slg% vs a 350 for A, then suddenly B is much better than A. But again, the stats could go in reverse and A ends up with a 450 OBP and 450 Slg% while B has a 275 OBP and 300 Slg%. You just don't know.

I view it as RZR > Range Factor > Fielding Percentage among stats that are freely available and easy to find with live stats daily. Plus/Minus via the Fielding Bible has additional value due to factoring in speed of ball and the like, thus moving it beyond RZR. UZR I thought was unavailable but I found a link to it just now - http://www.tangotiger.net/mgl/ - listing up through the end of 2007. McDonald gets negative scores (!) in 3 out of 5 years, with a +3 in 2007 (total of -4 runs saved over 5 years for an average of -3.5 per 162 games). Scutaro has 2 negative, 2 positive with a net of -8 over 166 games (-8 per 162). Even putting in a weighting system will still come up ugly for these guys.

Thus RZR and UZR think McDonald is no great shakes while Fielding Bible thinks McDonald is the cat's meow. Scutaro is below average, but not grossly so, in RZR and UZR but is ugly ugly ugly according to the Fielding Bible.

Perhaps view it as RZR=Batting Average, UZR=OBP, and Fielding Bible=Slg% as UZR and RZR are related but Fielding Bible figures in strength of ball hit at them and various other factors. Interesting though eh?

Wildrose - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#191989) #

John , I think you may have inadvertently used only a partial seasons data for McDonald in 2007. Full season 2007 UZR I believe has not been released. Remember McDonald did not become a regular until after June. Through various comments on his (MGL) blog we know McDonald finished at +21/150 games in 2007. This given his prior history was somewhat unusual , but some have commented perhaps utility fielders much as pinch hitters do poorer when used on an inconsistent basis.

MGL purchases his data from a different vendor than +/- , ( RZR comes from BIS just like +/-) so on occasion you find differences between the two. The Fielding Bible ( +/-) owns the company that collects the data for this project and feels it has superior quality control over it's final product,

By paying $ 3 bucks a month you can get up to date +/- here. UZR is good, but it's ad-hoc release and questions about its data collection make it difficult to utilize.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#191998) #

Sean Smith publishes a combined zone rating using BIS and Stats data here.

John McDonald has not looked to me to be quite as good this year, as he was in 2007. FWIW, BP has him as a 98 shortstop (113 last year) and 104 over his career (100 is par). Scutaro is at 106 this year at short and 98 over his career.

John Brattain - Sunday, September 07 2008 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#192010) #

<I>That's six wins in a row John Brattain! http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/chasing-our-tails/

You can start cutting JP some slack.</I>

Indeed�

I have been enjoying the run quite a bit thank you very much.

http://baseballdigestdaily.com/blogs/category/john-brattain/

Alas, I said on Wilner�s blog, it doesn�t change the fact that thanks to Ricciardi--the Jays were �Barried� early, and �Dunn� in late (although J.P. probably had his hands tied from the higher-ups on ol� Mr. Stan O. Zolol).

I�ll let J.P. keep his job if the Jays beat Garza � fair enough? (sly wink)

Best Regards

John

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