A very disterbing development manifested itself in the 10th.  Thigpen is actually Joey Lawrence the third.  Whoa!  If that guy makes the 25 man roster next year, I'm going to cry.

althought,it appears I was wrong a couple months ago when i vented about League no being able to throw a strike, so hope Joey proves me wrong as well.

As we are at the beginning of another meaningless September, let's take a look at the claim that JP uses the division as a crutch for the fact that the Jays are never in a playoff race. Like everyone else, I am tired of hearing JP say this, but you will never hear the Twins or White Sox admit that they would be out of a playoff race if they were in the AL East. While in the past I would never have said that the Jays deserve a playoff spot in the AL, they at least deserve to be in a race this year, in my opinion. I won't even get into run differential, though I do not see how the fans can complain about JP when he puts a team on the field that outscores their opponents by more than half a run/game, though the Jays do not know how to distribute runs correctly in order to maximize wins. If anyone actually has a reliable statistic that predicts how a GM can control run distribution effectively, please share it.

The AL East is 40 games over .500 vs the other 2 AL divisions, while they are 14 games over .500 vs the NL

The AL Central is 24 games below .500 vs the other 2 AL divisions, while they are 26 games over .500 vs the NL

The AL West is 20 games below .500 vs the other 2 AL divisions, while they are 6 games over .500 vs the NL

First off, the AL is vastly superior to the NL. So for all those Kevin Towers lovers who claim that he's a brilliant GM because he makes a lot of minor transactions every year and is active in this sense, lets see his paper-thin roster survive the AL in general and the AL East in particular. I’ll even let him bring Petco to the East Coast. JP makes these same minor transactions and this is one of his strongest attributes as a GM.

There is no way for me to say that the Jays are better than the Rays or Red Sox because we all reside in the AL East so the wins, more or less, indicate the superior teams (insofar as I am focussing on how divisions affect wins, not run differential, for example). We are close enough to the Yankees so I will not say that they are significantly better than us either, though I will also look at some of their numbers. Lets also take a look at the Twins, White Sox  and Angels. Since the AL East is the litmus test of a quality team, I consider how teams play against the AL East in comparison to the rest of the AL.

Records vs the AL East; Record vs AL opponents outside of AL East

Blue Jays 27-26; 37-30

Yankees 31-28; 34-28

Angels 28-15; 46-31

Twins 9-18; 54-40

White Sox 13-20; 53-35

Notice that even though the Angels have a modest run differential (+57) in relation to their win total, they DO beat up on the AL East as well as the other two divisions so for this I have to give them credit. Also, the Angels have played 43 games vs the AL East (vs 27 for the Twins and 33 for the White Sox respectively) due to the fact that they have a four-team division. This is a major disadvantage; it cancels out the advantage of having a 4-team division, in my opinion. As the stats show, the Twins and White Sox both do poorly against the AL East. In addition to this, the Twins are 18-19 and the White Sox are 16-12 vs the AL West. There are two areas where these teams are superior to the Blue Jays: records vs their division and records vs the NL

The Twins are 36-21 vs the AL Central and 14-4 vs the NL. The White Sox are 37-23 vs the AL Central and 12-6 vs the NL. The Jays are 8-10 vs the NL, one of only two AL teams with a record below .500 vs the NL (Indians are 6-12). This is something the Jays have struggled with and this has kept them slightly over .500 the last 3 years. In fact, they have a .500 record vs the NL in the last 3 years, and the AL always has quite a few extra wins floating around due to the NL's inferiority.

Another random observation: the lowly Baltimore Orioles are 32-30 vs the other 2 AL divisions and 11-7 vs the NL. They have a poor record due to their 20-39 record within the AL East. This is not to say that the Orioles are better than the White Sox because they are a combined 6 games over .500 vs teams outside the AL East, while the White Sox are only 3 games over .500 vs teams outside of the AL Central; this ignores the fact that the Orioles never face the AL East in their out-of-division games (obviously!). Rather, I think the Orioles are a good example of a team that could potentially be .500 in any other division in baseball (they are only -36 in run differential, and I can only assume that they would be a positive if their RD vs the AL East was factored out).

Overall, these statistics more or less show, in my opinion, that the Red Sox, Rays and Angels are the class of the AL, while New York and Toronto are 4th and 5th respectively. The only thing that could further the argument that the Twins and White Sox are better than the Blue Jays is the fact that they have superior records vs the NL; however, I do not think this has as much of an effect as the division that each team resides in. The major factor is that the Twins and White Sox play in a division that is only 2 games over 500 when factoring in all the extra wins coming from the NL.

The Twins and White Sox play 76 games each vs teams in their own division and someone HAS to win these games. I certainly do not consider this a measure of a quality team; a 5 team triple A division would have a similar distribution of intra-divisional wins.

The Blue Jays play in a division that is 60 games over .500, and somebody HAS to lose these games.  In other words, I cannot see how the Twins/White Sox would have any shot in the AL East this year, while I would predict the Jays to, at the very least, compete for the division in the Central and, based on these stats, win the division. I consider the Jays the 5th best team in the AL if wins are actually based on talent, not schedule/division, and they are within striking range of the Yankees. If I look at the NL, the Cubs are the only team with a RD that is significantly better than the Jays; also, all of these teams’ RD’s are primarily based on games within their own league, which is clearly inferior. Even a solid team such as the Milwaukee Brewers would not be in a position to trade for CC Sabathia if they played in the AL, and, thus, they would have a significantly lower winning %. This does not even factor in that the AL East probably wears down the Blue Jays, while the Twins and White Sox are probably refreshed by their AL Central/AAAA opponents. Thus, the Jays are probably more weary through out the year than their AL Central counterparts, which may relate to their mediocre record vs the NL.

unclejim,

I live in London and have been over here for about four years now. When I opened up the Observer on Sunday I couldn't believe it. I actually did a double take. I love Collin Murray and I love the Blue Jays - hence the shock.

I find it very hard to get across to people here in the UK why I love baseball so much. Comparing it to cricket does the game absolutely zero justice and I think Murray has done a good job trying to explain why he loves the game and the Jays. I am back in Canada for a couple weeks beginning the 13th of September - lucky that there is a homestand then. I have toyed with the idea of popping down to see the Croydon Pirates (baseball team near London) but it's just such a pain to get down there.

Uncle Jim

Thanks for linking to the Oberver article. I'm another London based Jays fan. I seldom post here but I read pretty much every day - one day I may even get to add to my whole 1 Jays game attended in person! (Sept 2000, an ugly 8-1 loss to the Mariners).

Even with a balanced schedule, I find it hard to believe that the Jays would finish any higher than third in our division this year. I just want to see the teams that make the playoffs be the most deserving. Frankly, I like football's 12 playoff team format and considering how much more revenue there would be in the game not only from playoff games, but also playoff interest, I think it makes sense. Even if they do maintain that only 8 teams make the playoffs, I'd prefer that there be two divisions (hence two division winners) and two wildcards. With this format, I think the Jays would definately be in a playoff race this year, if nothing else.

I can't see the Yankees and Boston wanted a balanced schedule as they likely have the highest attendance/ ratings for their respective games against each other.  This lkely helps out the national TV contract as well.  Plus teams would have to travel more - everyone would be barking about that. 

Not going to happen.

Is it really that hard for the Jays to compete? 

Look at this year.  I have the benefit of hidsight but what if:

1)the Jays had kept Reed Johnson, avoided Shannon S and brought up Lind sooner?  Their Outfield would have likely produced enough offense and would have been better able to  withstand the Wells injury.

2)JP had not given Thomas the vesting option in his contract.  Either Thomas would not have signed which would have allowed JP to pursue a different scary bat or to have a Stairs/ Thomas platoon at DH.  This would have added some offence too.

3)If JP had drafted Tulowitzki instead of Romero, there would not be a big gap at SS.  Tulowitzki did not have a great year this year due to injury, but last year was great and you have to think that he would be the solution at SS for the Jays for a long time.

4) It seems that JP tried to control every aspect of the on field performance through Gibbons.  This seems to have resulted in the offence focusing on going deep into counts and trying to walk.  Hit and runs were rare and as a result there were many DP's.  Many of the players mentioned this with the firing of Gibbons.  This seems to have contributed to poor years across the board - something that seems to have corrected itself since Cito took over. A better approach at the plate may have helped.

Maybe another GM  makes those decisions rather than the ones JP made.  In any event, I think that had the Jays made the four decisions outlined above, they would have been much better this year and possibly last year as well.  This is not a direct criticism of JP, it is only to point out that the Jays might not have been that far out of it this year had they just made a couple of better decisions.  Leading the AL East is hard - not impossible.  Heck, the Rays have a couple of ex Jays starting in the outfiled.

As it is, in the past I've only partly felt that the AL East was a reason for the Jays' lack of meaningful games in September.  BUT, this year I'm convinced that them being in the AL East has played NO part in this September being like every other in the JP era.  There is just no excuse for having arguably the best all-around pitching staff AND defense in the AL and not even being a factor in the race.  Add to that the sudden leapfrog of Tampa over the Jays into respectability, and you can no longer say that the division is crutch.

As another UK based Jays fan, that article gave me a lot of pleasure so thank you unclejim.

I especially liked the reference to Doc and his jersey - the man is a legend.

Still waiting to have to board the plane and go straight to the RC for a September pennant chase... (sigh)

Is it really that hard for the Jays to compete? 

Look at this year.  I have the benefit of hidsight but what if:

When you only point out JP's errors, you are not giving him credit for his accomplishments. It's not like I think he's a top 5 GM or anything, but, really, look at how playing in the AL East has affected them. Beyond the big three of the Angels, Red Sox and Rays, there is no way to deny that the Jays/Yankees deserve to be the team battling for the 4th playoff spot if playoff spots were determined by how good a team actually is, instead of being determined by division/schedule. This does not even factor in run differential, which as I have said before cannot be attributed to a GM's foresight or lack thereof.

Basically what I'm getting at is this...do people think that the reason the Blue Jays aren't battling for a playoff spot is more due to JP's ineptitude as a GM or the inequalities of the schedule/divisions. To me, it is quite obviously the latter.

Giambi is 37 and has only had spells of being dangerous this season. A mistake to even consider.

But must agree with Moe's comment about Jays' business model. It's too bad when J.P. departed Oakland he didn't pack some of Al Davis' outlook on winning. This year has been highly entertaining to baseball fans--pitching and defence will keep most games close (see: Minnesota the past two evenings)--but, in my opinion, I'd rather see  a "damn the torpedoes" commitment to winning rather than just putting on a good show.

To riff on Ducey's comment above, to his list of poor choices I'd say, again, my opinion, that the Jays should have added to their anemic line-up a certain Mr. B.Bonds, one of the greatest hitters of all time, certifiably clean of PEs for the past three years, and unfairly and for racial reasons  blackballed by the sports media and the panjamdrums of baseball. Toronto's line-up game after game this year probably made at least 40 SPs in the league salivate with anticipation. 1-9 there was simply no one to fear. There is no doubt in my mind that Barry would have made a major difference.

But Godfrey/Rogers and the other team owners demanded that Bonds be sent to the cornfield.

Toronto should have stood up to baseball and for justice, since Bonds has not been tried or found guilty yet, and signed him because he would have helped us immeasurably. But did we complain when Darold Knowles was traded for himself to help the Tigers beat us? No. Or many other instances which could be cited? No. We go along, we avoid controversy, we accept also ran staus. We pay for collusion fines that we had nothing to do with. And so on, and so on.

Let me also state that I do disagree with Moe that nobody hereabouts understands baseball.

Fellas,

I am not trying to bring up the Tulowitzki think again or to criticize JP in retrospect.  I am just saying that with substantially the same team, but with a few different decisions, the Jays would be a better team.  This to me points to the reality that the Jays could have contended in the AL East this year.

Heck, the are probably two dozen other decisions JP could have made that would have led to an even better team.

If the Jays could have contended, and the Rays are contenders, it really undermines the idea that the strength of the division is an insurmountable problem.

I'll throw my 2 cents in on the whole "if JP made a couple of different moves" theory.

I think we're all in agreement that JP's most sucessful moves during his tenure have been the "small" moves he's made.  You know the complimentary additions of Zaun, Downs, Accardo, McDonald, Barajas, Tallet, et al.

It's the "key" big ticket moves such as expensive free agents, trades, contract extensions and 1st rnd draft picks that haven't had the impact that their "supposed" to have.  Glaus helped, but broke down.  Same may go for Rolen.  AJ pays dividends ONLY when the season is out of reach.  Russ Adams, a bust.  Hinske, Wells, Rios & Hill (health I know) all subpar after signing extensions.  Thomas, need I explain?

I just think, with Tampa taking the bull by the horns this year and with JP never really getting everything to click once.  A change is needed.

I disagree (to an extent) in regards to JP handing out poor contracts (either for free agents or for his own guys). Rather, I'd say that they are mostly "average" contracts, with a couple of poor ones with Thomas and I suppose Rolen. VW is not a JP extension and the fact that uncle Teddy was actually at that press conference suggests to me that the contract was about optics over all else. I consider it a Godfrey contract. Guys like Glaus, Overbay, Rios, Burnett etc are not horrible deals; they're all pretty much mediocre or slightly above/below; this is one reason we have a slightly above average team in many ways (though in 2008 I'd say the division/schedule imbalance is a key factor in this).

The drafting, until recently, has more or less focussed on average players as well; hence, no JP draft pick has made an all-star game (although I do think Lind and Hill will have a chance from the group drafted before 2006, though they'd probably be occasional all-stars at best); there are, however, quite a few solid players from the 2002-2005 drafts, with more to potentially still come.

For the most part, I think JP is good at not making major mistakes. He may be one of the best GM's in the league in this regard. However, he doesn't do enough vital things well enough to make this a 90+ win club annually (although I think that this may change pretty soon). Quite frankly, his 2002-2005 drafting in combination with his 2006-2008 free agent spending is perfect for the NL and I suspect he'd have a top 5 team in the NL every year, specifically with pitchers like Marcum, Litsch, Jannsen etc.

As much as it is a running theme on this site that JP is an average GM, I'd say he was below average for the first 4 years and is improving on the job so he is a slightly better than average GM at this point. I'd still cut bait after 2009 if this is not a 90 win team, but lets give him one more shot to see what he can do because a lot of money is tied up until 2010 (including JP's contract).

It's too early to get too excited about Travis Snider.

Screw that.  I'm on Expedia right now booking a room in Cooperstown for July, 2033.

BTW, if you want to see the youngest players promoted to the majors by JP, just go to the thread before this one near the end http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=191851. JP has been a somewhat different GM since the payroll increase. I would like to thank the Jays again for mangling the Twins this series to rub it in the face of Griffin at the Star. BTW, does anyone think the team would play like this under Gibbons at this point? Who is going to be the back up catcher coming out of spring training? Could it be Thigpen just to keep the seat warm for Jeroloman and later Arencibia?

The real money question is if it is better to fire JP sooner than later to make sure that LaCava doesn't leave the team to be a GM somewhere else? I think the Jays should not allow any teams to talk to him.

Watching Snider battle Nathan to a 3 - 2 count and then ripping a single on a slider (yes, a slider thrown in the 3 - 2 count) that was down and away from him made me go "yes, this is it, this is what we've been waiting for". It was like, foreshadowing in a good book...  He's got what it takes, it appears. As Dave said, we'll have to see how he adjusts to pitchers adjusting to him.

My gut says he should start 2009 in triple A and then be called up when there is an injury to one of our outfielders or Overbay. And then he's here to stay.

AY: I think you're right. My memory says Snider "went down and away" to get it, whereas a slider would have to start way outside for a LH hitter to have to go down and get. Plus, I think Nathan throws more splitters then sliders so it would more likely be the off speed pitch he goes to in critical 3-2 counts.

Either way, it was supurb piece of hitting for a 20 year old in a pressure packed situation.

"Right now, Snider is proving that he can hit major league pitching when the pitchers are simply trying to beat him with their best stuff without worrying about trying to locate it."

Dave, I am just curious what you are basing this statement on. If you were contending that opposing pitcher's weren't sure how to pitch to Snider as of yet I would whole-heartedly agree, but I can't imagine that they would just abandon pitching and start throwing it up there with a "here it is kid, try and hit it" attitude. He may be only 20, but he is still one of the premier hitting prospects in the game and every team is well aware of that.