Interesting to see who was called up vs what was expected back in mid-August when we speculated on it.

Guys listed often were Accardo, Wolfe, Diaz (since traded), Parrish (already here), Adams, Richmond, the Romero's, Coats.  Guys not listed due to being sent down/DL'ed afterwards were Wilkerson, Mench, and Marcum.

Adams kept hitting well but I figure the Jays just have too many infielders with Bautista being added since then.  The Romero's didn't do that horribly but the pen is pretty full as is.  Coats would've never played.  Accardo is still recovering.

So no big surprises either way really.  6 guys is in range of the past, and nothing compared to Pittsburgh and their 10 additions.

Perkins has been getting it done by being very effective with runners on base.  He holds runners well, but doesn't do it with the DP, as he is a flyball pitcher.  He's got a severe reverse platoon split so far; it may be that the best thing to do is to stick Travis Snider, Adam Lind and Lyle Overbay into the lineup and let 'em swing for the fences...

I'm a bit surprised to see Thigpen but not Adams. Given the season Thigpen had, it's unlikely he has a future even if he does well for 1 month. Adams on the other hand is a JP guy and the Jays need to make a decision on him this off-season,  I think.  Adams hitting well would show he still has some value, which in turn makes JP look better.

Interesting to see that Marcum is back. I remember reading when he was sent down that he won't come back this year. His quick recall brings up the question again why he was sent down in the first place. 10 days and 2 starts is not a long time to work on anything (incl. attitude). But 10 days of service time could potentially go a long way in Marcum's case -- 2.128 should be safe, but 2.118 is safe for sure.
 

Perkins has been getting it done by being very effective with runners on base.

A 78.2% strand rate and miniscule K-rate suggests that he has not been very good at all, but rather very impressively lucky.

He has an xFIP of 4.94. That's not good.

Thigpen is here only as a 3rd catcher.  Perhaps for a bit of time with Cito & Gene too.  Adams would've been stuck on the bench with Inglett/Scutaro/Bautista ahead of him. 

Marcum was almost 100% for sure sent down to make him cheap for 2009.  The Jays would have all service times for the majors figured out by now and would know exactly how long would be needed for Marcum in AAA to make him not be a super-2 this winter.  Now they can pay him $400-500k rather than a few million.  Makes JP a lot more popular with the Rogers people.  He can still qualify for the ERA title (135 IP so far, 136 games played by the Jays - 3.41 makes the top 10 and Marcum is at 3.60) thus giving him a goal for the year.

Wilkerson/Mench would probably have had to be paid for the rest of the year (minimum, but still paid) thus might as well have them with the team. 

Wolfe is a solid arm in the pen and has a lot of value.  Could go for a couple of innings if needed.

Richmond is now the long man for extra inning games or if a starter is knocked out within the first 3 innings.  Parrish moves into a similar role.  If a starter goes down or a double header happens (like on the 13th vs Boston) then Parrish or Richmond gets it depending on if the opponent is right or left handed heavy.

I don't see Adams having much of a future with the Jays, but given that he now plays RF/LF as well, he could have some value for a NL team. Show that he can post an OBP of 700-750 against RHP and use him in a trade. But the fact that he didn't get the call means either that I'm too optimistic or that JP will hold on to him and put him on the 40 man roster.

Sorry, I meant OPS.

Marcum was almost 100% for sure sent down to make him cheap for 2009.  The Jays would have all service times for the majors figured out by now and would know exactly how long would be needed for Marcum in AAA to make him not be a super-2 this winter. 

Actually Marcum's time in Syracuse (10 days) has no bearing on his major league service time. 

Any minor league option of less than 20 days counts as major league service time.  See paragragh two under service time.

He will still be credited with a full major league season for 2008 and finish with 2 years, 128 days of service which will make him very close to eligible for Super 2 anyway.  I believe I read somewhere not long ago that 2 years, 120 days is the lowest ever service time to qualify for Super 2.

 

Actually Marcum's time in Syracuse (10 days) has no bearing on his major league service time.

Thanks a lot. Another clause I didn't know about. Is there anything more complicated as baseball CBA rules?

Is there anything more complicated as baseball CBA rules?

Only conspiracy theories involving service time.

A 78.2% strand rate and miniscule K-rate suggests that he has not been very good at all, but rather very impressively lucky.

Without having seen him pitch, I'm inclined to suspect luck as well.  However, it could mean he locates his pitches better from the stretch, or that his focus is better with men on base.

Am I the only one scratching my head over JP/Cito's comments on DH? Neither Lind nor, of course Snider, has any extended success with major league pitching and dropping them into a pure hitting role is a bit frightening. The Jays have at least Thomas' $10MM to spare plus the salary of Zaun and a few others to blow. Why would they not go for an established bat? Are they holding out for a shortstop....again?

I would rather pay for an experienced bat at DH and keep MacDonald in the field, than get another half-assed "two way" shortstop and have a rookie at DH.  Plus if Snider turns it on again, why not sub him or Lind into first base and drop-punt Overbay who will never put up power numbers at first?

I don't get it.

I would be OK with someone like Ibanez at DH for a year. The problem is that all the better free agent DHs (Ramirez, Thome, Ibanez) are going to want multi-year deals - which could lead to another Thomas-like situation. And after the the Big Hurt debacle, how do you think these late-30s hitters are going to feel about signing as a DH with Toronto? That said, I could see JP offering Ibanez a two-year contract for about $12-14M. Somehow I don't think there will be a vesting option...

I'm not crazy about having Snider or Lind DH to start their careers. Lind has already turned into a respectable LF, and Snider could too with some regular playing time. And most players seem to hit better if they get to play a position as well. I think each player needs a clearly defined, full-time role for 2009.

Either way, the Jays are going to have to confront their outfield logjam sooner or later. Lind/Wells/Rios would seem to be the starting outfield for years to come. (I really don't see Wells getting traded, even if he has a strong 2009. Not with that contract.) The team already has a first baseman through 2010, at which point Cooper becomes the logical replacement at that position. I guess time will tell what move(s) makes the most sense.

I would go for a 4-man OF/DH with the DH spot a 'rotating off-day' and spend my FA bucks on a REAL shortstop. SOmeone who can actually hit AND play the field.

Is there anyone like that out there?

Is there anyone like that out there?

If you don't mind a guy with a bad back Furcal's a free agent.  Other than that there isn't any good options.  Here's a good list of free agents.

Ken Rosenthal reports that the Red Sox are planning a major push for AJ Burnett in the off-season.

Comments by Cito and JP after last night's game (from bluejays.com):

"They have just been absolutely fantastic," Gaston said. "I'd like to go over there and get their secret. ... You get rid of two guys like Hunter and Santana, and you'd expect that team wouldn't be where they are today. But, once again, they're right there again. I have a lot of respect for those guys."

While Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi shared Gaston's sentiment, he also pointed out that the Twins have benefited from the division they play in.

"They've been blessed with some really good players," Ricciardi said. "But I'll switch divisions if they want. Everybody was talking about the Central being the strongest division in baseball and, once again, the American League East is the strongest division in baseball.

"But, they do a good job over there. They draft well and they develop well."

Does Ricciardi ever stop making excuses? (I think I can safely say: no, no he doesn't.) And someone might want to remind JP that if the Jays were in the AL Central, they would still be 5.5 games behind *two* teams, and 9.5 games out of the wild card. In other words, they would be highly unlikely to make the playoffs.

Hmm.  If the Red Sox and Yankees go nuts in talks with AJ then the Jays better get busy extending Halladay's contract before the fur flies.  The Sox and Yanks are not known for being rational when they are competing and I could easily see AJ getting a really crazy deal ($100 for 5 or ...brr... $160 for 8 would be totally insane but we are talking the two teams with more money than anyone else and owners who compete as well and given the Daisuke deal it could happen).

So, for the Jays the key is to get Halladay to sign on for 6 years (2009-2014, adding 4 years to his current deal) at no more than $100 million.  Expensive but worth it if AJ gets what I think he might should the two elephants get into it.

I doubt very much that the Sox would pay $20 million per annum for Burnett.  They are cost-conscious, as appears from the Ramirez-Bay trade.  Matsuzaka has provided them with good value to date, and performed right in line with reasonable expectations.

The Yankees are a different story.  The Sox might try to drive up the bidding.

Does Ricciardi ever stop making excuses? (I think I can safely say: no, no he doesn't.) And someone might want to remind JP that if the Jays were in the AL Central, they would still be 5.5 games behind *two* teams, and 9.5 games out of the wild card. In other words, they would be highly unlikely to make the playoffs.

No they wouldn't as they wouldn't play the Rays, the Red Sox and the Yankees 18 times each.

So, for the Jays the key is to get Halladay to sign on for 6 years

It's not difficult to imagine Halladay electing to not sign an extension, preferring to to wait and assess the quality of the team come the end of his current contract.

AJ looks like a Type A free agent, according to one blogger who thinks he's solved the Elias ranking system:

http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/08/projected-elias-rankings.html

Small consolation if he signs with another AL East team (having to face him several times a year would be painful), but it's nice to know we'll add a couple of high draft picks if and when he heads for greener pastures.

Big plus if AJ goes to the Yanks or Sox is that they would lose a first round pick to the Jays.  AJ having a high score is a good thing too as that would cut the odds of getting a second round pick instead (87.6 listed as AJ's score) should whoever signs him also sign someone else.  Mark Teixeira has a higher score (96.4 - uh oh) as does Manny Ramirez (89.2), Chipper Jones (91.5), and John Lackey (94.9).  He hasn't figure out NL pitchers yet.  Jones will stay in Atlanta (option) and Lackey in Anaheim (option).  Manny most likely won't come back to the NYY/Red Sox area but who knows for sure.  Teixeira is the big issue - lets hope whoever signs him doesn't also go for AJ.  Luckily odds are no one will sign Teixeira & Manny & AJ as that could be the payroll of the Twins to cover just those 3.  Odds are a team signing AJ also won't go for the premium pitchers from the NL as it is rare to sign two high level starters in one winter.

Worst case is someone signing AJ along with 2 of the guys ranked above him.  Then the Jays would get just a sandwich pick (between rounds 1 and 2) and a third round pick.

"No they wouldn't as they wouldn't play the Rays, the Red Sox and the Yankees 18 times each."

This is a fair point, although there is no guarantee that the Jays would have a significantly better record against the AL Central teams. And while this has been a banner year for the AL East teams, it's worth noting that a couple of years ago, the Central had three 90+ win teams, while the East had only one (New York). That year, the Jays finished second in their division, but would have finished fourth in the Central.

I don't really dispute that in the long haul the Jays would be more likely to contend in a different division. I think what annoys me is JP's relentlessly pointing this out, when the fact is that he hasn't produced one contending team during his entire tenure in Toronto. We've been out of it every September. To me, his whingeing is unprofessional and doesn't accomplish anything, other than to make him look petulant, self-promoting and unimaginative.

I'm not crazy about having Snider or Lind DH to start their careers. Lind has already turned into a respectable LF, and Snider could too with some regular playing time. And most players seem to hit better if they get to play a position as well. I think each player needs a clearly defined, full-time role for 2009.

greenfrog I agree 100%.  I think penciling in Snider as your 2009 DH is trouble and I believe would limit his growth potential.  MLB'ers have always said that DH is tough because you're sitting around too much, and for a real young player that spells trouble.

I'm of the opinion that the Jays will shop Overbay during the winter (regardless of who's GM) and then groom Lind @ 1B in the spring.  With the hope that Snider impresses enough to be your 2009 Opening Day LF with Bautista /  Inglett / FA? as alternates.

RE: 2009 DH: I'm of the mind to take a flier on a cheap bat (ala Oakland in 2006 & 2007).  Maybe Nomar comes back to the AL East cheap.    I just can't see the Jays flipping high amounts of cash towards Giambi or Thome and Delgado is unfortunately working his way up the pay scale.

Big plus if AJ goes to the Yanks or Sox is that they would lose a first round pick to the Jays.

Except that those teams will likely just go out and throw big money at a player that dropped because of signability and re-coup the pick that way.

DH tough? Depends on the player. Checking Snider's minor league stats I see he DH'ed in 15 of his 17 games in Dunedin, 39 of his 98 games in AA, and in 1 of his 18 games in AAA. That totals to 55 out of 134 games. They don't have a breakdown of how he did as a DH vs in the field for the minors (at least not at Baseball-Reference) but I suspect he hit OK in those AB's.

I think doing a mix and match next year makes the most sense. Snider playing LF/RF/DH, Lind LF/DH, Rios RF/CF/DH, Wells CF/DH. Everyone gets a bit of a rest from the everyday grind in the field (thus helping keep Rios & Wells & Lind's bats in the lineup without wrecking their knees). Get a 1/2 decent RH bat to mix in there so Snider can sit against the toughest right handers (worst case use Scutaro or Bautista) and you are set.

Fred McGriff (90 DH games/107 total games at age 23 - 130 OPS+), John Olerud (90/111 at age 21 - 117 OPS+), and Cecil Fielder (55/82 at age 23 after playing about 30 games each of the 2 previous seasons - 133 OPS+) all broke in via the DH method. McGriff and Fielder at the same time strangely enough. In those 3 you have a group of guys who could hit but were blocked by either Willie Upshaw (McGriff & Fielder) or McGriff (Olerud) at first base thus DH was the only spot for them. All 3 had very, very good careers and hit decently as rookies/near rookies. Can't think of others who this was used with but those 3 came to mind immediately.

Wow Pistol - glass half empty today?

The Jays getting an extra first round pick from one of their competition is a good thing. If AJ can screw up their rotation/budget for a few years all the better :)

However, AJ is likely to be a 110-120 ERA+ pitcher for whoever gets him for at least a few years whenever healthy (about 20-25 starts a year I'd pencil him in for). Ideally he'd go to the NL so he wouldn't help the Yanks or Sox. The Yankees have a lot of issues in their rotation this year and are going to go hard for a starting pitcher. AJ will go to the east coast thus the Sox and Yanks have to be viewed as high on his list. Our best hope is that the Mets (who could use another starter badly) go after him as well.

FYI: checking Pedro Martinez' stats when going to see if the Mets would want AJ (they would) it was scary. ERA+ of 81? His last 3 years consist of 44 total starts (just under 15 per year) with ERA+'s of 97-166-81 but that 166 was just over 28 IP. 32 walks and 17 home runs given up in just 87 IP is horrid for him (in 2000 he had 32 walks and 17 home runs given up in 217 IP). A WHIP over 1.4, raw ERA of 5.07. Ugh. Still, it looks like the skills are there just hidden by that horrid HR rate (1.8 per 9 IP). Worth a shot, but he could be at the end of an amazing career (156 lifetime ERA+ a figure Roy Halladay has passed just 3 times including this season at 159).

Wow Pistol - glass half empty today?

I guess so.

It's good that the Jays will get picks in return for losing Burnett, but I don't see a difference between getting a Yankee or Red Sox pick or getting say (picking a random team) the Phillies pick.  The Red Sox picked last in the draft this year and spent over $10 million on their draftees and are considered to have one of the best drafts.  It doesn't really matter where they pick they're going to get their players in the draft regardless.  The Jays are going to get the best player available willing to sign for slot money. 

Unless the Jays have a situation like the 2007 draft when they had many extra picks (5 in that case) they're going to fall behind the competition, especially when they barely dabble in the international market.

Except that those teams will likely just go out and throw big money at a player that dropped because of signability and re-coup the pick that way.

How'd that work out for them this year?  Hmmm, NY couldn't sign their first and second round picks and Boston paid above slot for a player that went about where he should have gone, if not a bit early (Note to future draftees:  if you're drafted by the Sox or Yankees, and your agent can't get you above slot money regardless of your talent level, fire your agent.)

I think Ricciardi has a point regarding the divisions, but I agree his excuse making is tiresome. If the Rays can win the AL East one year, then there's no excuse for the Jays not to have won one (or at least finished within 5 games of one) since 2000. Especially when you consider the Jays have had arguably the best pitcher in baseball, in his prime, during that window.

As far as the draft picks for Burnett, big whoop. If the jays are looking to win now, then what is losing the team's 2nd best starter without getting any MLB compensation going to accomplish? It's frustrating watching the Jays let Lilly and Burnett go for nothing other than the faint hope of landing an MLB starter five years from now through the draft. Whether the Jays could have gotten a good player or two for Burnett in a trade is arguable, but unless the team plans on packing it in for 2009, then color me disappointed that the only return for Burnett will be two draft picks chosen by JP Ricciardi. Not exactly a good feeling.

DH tough? Depends on the player. Checking Snider's minor league stats I see he DH'ed in 15 of his 17 games in Dunedin, 39 of his 98 games in AA, and in 1 of his 18 games in AAA. That totals to 55 out of 134 games. They don't have a breakdown of how he did as a DH vs in the field for the minors (at least not at Baseball-Reference) but I suspect he hit OK in those AB's.

Snider played DH because he was slightly injured; in AA he hit a good deal better as an outfielder than as a DH (where he hit .237), though one can't know what the reasons for that are, and sample size issues of course exist.

On the whole, I think that having young players play a position, especially when by most accounts they are at least capable, is the preferred solution.

Great link Anders. Snider hit worse playing LF (789 OPS) than DH (801 OPS), but best in RF (916 OPS) overall this year. Really doesn't say much though as it ranges from 127 to 203 AB's. 2 plate appearances as a PH though with a home run and a walk.

It has his Major League Equivalents though (MLE) which is always fun too. 229/312/367 overall but that is due to the low levels he played at (A+ and AA as well as AAA). His AAA figures translated to 292/338/446 which would be acceptable for 2009 I'd think (784 OPS).

Scott Campbell translated to 249/346/333 - nowhere near enough to be called up early in 2009.

Amazingly Tim Collins stats didn't completely collapse under MLE - 4.24 FIP (ERA), 4.13 BB/9, 7.49 SO/9. Plenty good enough for a LOOGY even at the age of 18. That was a heck of a season he had.

Could play with this all day but I better get back to work.

How'd that work out for them this year?  Hmmm, NY couldn't sign their first and second round picks and Boston paid above slot for a player that went about where he should have gone, if not a bit early

The Yanks will get those picks again next year so they only lose a year of time.

If the Jays consistently get a better return out of the draft paying slot then the teams that invest heavily in the draft I will be very surprised.  I hope they do, but I'm not counting on it.

John Northey, the minorleaguesplits.com MLEs ought to be taken with a grain of salt.  Arencibia comes out at .234/.249/.391, i.e. below replacement level, and even I think that he would do better than that.