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The Jays are 7-2 in their last 9, and on a roll. They trounced those dastardly Yankees last night, and tonight face the even dastardlier Red Soxs. Marcum takes the bump against Paul Byrd, followed by Litsch/Lester and AJ/Dice-K.

If the Jays can sweep, then things get sort of interesting.



The Jays are seven back of the Red Sox for the wild card, and have the benefit of playing ten more games against them. They're already 6-2 against them on the year, the most success they've had against any one team they've played more than four games against (they are 4-0 and 3-0 against the other Sox and Twins, respectively). The Jays toughest opponent this year? You should be able to figure it out - they lead the AL East, and the Jays are 3-9 against them. Well, and they are 1-6 against the Cleve as well.

Jose Bautista! Take it away Richard Griffin! Well, it's a pretty reasonable take, really. Bautista has 12 home runs this year in some 320 at bats; Scoots, X-Factor, Johnny Mac and Voodoo Joe have 8 in 1,001. Not so great.

Cliff Lee won again last night, and it's hard to imagine he doesn't have this Cy Young business locked up. He and Halladay have been roughly as valuable, with Lee's slightly better performance offset by Halladay's increased workload. Halladay leads in terms of PRC, 114-113. Hard to fault the writers for eventually giving it to Lee - his numbers are pretty shiny, and really he isn't such a bad choice.

Speaking of winning award, Grady Sizemore had 7 RBI last night, and would be a legit MVP candidate if the writers gave awards to guys who had teams that didn't win a bunch of games Sizemore is hitting .272/.384/.530 and is 31/34 stealing bases while playing CF. He leads the AL in RC. But hey, I'm sure Carlos Quentin is a much more deserving choice. The defensive spectrum, meh!

Instant replay is here. The linked article has a headline indicating that game lengths are going to increase, and then the piece contains several quote from players explaining how they don't think the length of games will increase. Apparently on disputed home run calls up to three umps will go off the field to a monitor to determine what happened, then come back and give a ruling. Why they just wouldn't have some people in New York watching on TV and calling is beyond me, or they could show it on the scoreboard on somesuch. I guess it's important that they get it right though. No word yet on whether Lou Pinella will get irate and throw a tv monitor on a disputed homer getting overturned...

The Jays have the same run differential as the Angels, +58. Playoff berth, please!

Thhhhaaaaatttt's all, folks.

August 22, 2008: On a Roll | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Ken Kosowan - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#191133) #
While doing my usual sweep across the net, I came across this story. It's captivating and really gives hope that good baseball writing can come from ESPN.

"Revenge of the Baseball Gods" It's all about Cerda vs Almonte from the LLWS and their journey to the draft.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=cerda
greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#191135) #
According to BP, the Jays have a 1.05% chance of making the playoffs (I think a big part of this is the number of teams the Jays have to pass - three - coupled with the fact that Boston and Minnesota are tied, seven games ahead of us). Of course, a sweep of Boston would help in this regard. I think a more realistic goal is winning two of three and edging just a bit closer. We don't need to be officially "in the race" yet. The point is to be close when it counts: late September.

Either way, we'll need some help from Minnesota and/or the White Sox (whichever team plans on finishing in second in the AL Central needs to start swooning pretty soon).
John Northey - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#191136) #
Good story on Almonte vs Cerda.  Cerda is now hitting 279/373/380 in rookie ball and at 18 looks to have a future.  If I was involved with a team I'd push to sign Almonte though as he'd be cheap and once did throw over 100 mph thus well worth a shot in low A after all youneverknow.
Impossibles - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#191137) #

Something to keep in mind is Minny will play 23 of their 35 remaining games on the road, where they only have a .465 winning % (.666 at home).

But if my calculations are correct and the Twinkies keep up their home/road winning averages, they will still end up with 91-92 wins.  The Jays would have to win 26 of the remaining 35 to get to 92 wins (or 9 losses).

Yeeeesh.

Anders - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#191138) #
Good story on Almonte vs Cerda.  Cerda is now hitting 279/373/380 in rookie ball and at 18 looks to have a future.  If I was involved with a team I'd push to sign Almonte though as he'd be cheap and once did throw over 100 mph thus well worth a shot in low A after all youneverknow.

He didn't throw 100 - he threw 70something, which with the closer mound in little league would have appeared to be 100+. The article mentions that he now throws in the low 80s.
Impossibles - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#191139) #
I don't think he ever hit 100mph, he threw what would feel like 100mph due to the closer mound in little league (I guess based on time it takes to cross the plate?).
Impossibles - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#191140) #
oops, sorry, Anders.
John Northey - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#191141) #
Oops, after reading the article and going around the net to get Cerda's numbers I just remembered the 100 mph thing which must of being about how it seemed rather than how fast it really was.  Guess this is why I never did well in English back in high school.
John Northey - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#191144) #
Just read an article about Mussina and his HOF chances which made me look up his infamous complaint about Tom Cheek's ceremony going too long.
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/2004/09/05/617180.html

What is fun is how Elliot goes on later in the article to do a comparison of current Jays (2004) vs former Jays.  Listed as 2004 Jays vs 2004 Ex-Jays.  Final 2004 OPS+ in brackets.  The article was written in early September.
CA: Zaun (96) loses vs Mike Matheny(65)/Benito Santiago(91)
1B: Delgado (129) wins over Olerud (94)
2B: Hudson (98) over Alomar(81)/Cairo(100)/Kent(122)
3B: Hinske (76) loses to Blake(122)/Batista(80)
SS: Gomez(76)/Woodard(61) loses to Izturis(88)/Young(109)/Gonzalez(60)/Perez(67)/Lopez(86)
OF: Johnson (79)/Wells(105)/Rios(85) lose to Green(113)/Stewart(113)/Cruz(101)/Werth(115)
DH: Catalanotto (88) over Phelps(92 - 139 after leaving Toronto)

Catcher seems odd, DH was reasonable as Phelps did a late season charge, I'd take the ex-Jays and Jeff Kent over Hudson that year.  Surprised as I looked this up to see that Tomas Perez and Cruz Jr both played for Houston this season.

For pitchers ERA+ and IP
SP: Lilly (119-197)/Batista (100-199)/Bush(131-98 IP)/Towers (94-116) (where's Halladay & his 115-133?) lose to Clemens (146-214)/Carpenter (123-182)/Leiter (133-173)/Wells (104-196)/Escobar (114-208)/Loaiza (82-183)/Lidle (89-211)/Hendrickson (94-183)
Pen: Frasor/Chulk/Speier over Quantrill/Lyon/Koch

Wow, both the rotation in Toronto and ex-Toronto were strong.  Odd that he didn't list Halladay though.
John Northey - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#191145) #
Another random note... the Jays are 9th in the Baseball-Prospectus hit list for the majors.  What sucks is that 3 of the 8 teams ahead of them are the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees.  The other teams ahead of them come from the NL Central (Cubs & Brewers), AL Central (White Sox - Twins are #10), AL West (Angels) and NL East (Mets).  Namely, no other division has 3 teams in the top 10 and just 2 have 2 in the top 10 vs the AL East with 4.  FYI: the Orioles are #17.  3 of the 4 NL West teams are in the bottom 9 while Arizona is #11.

We really, really, really need to see a new playoff system designed.  EIther 2 wild cards with a one game playoff between them to decide who faces the strongest division winner or a full 8 teams per league playoff ala the NBA and NHL.  I'm sure the Jays are working on this in baseballs back rooms, but they need to push harder and odds are the Orioles and Rays are there with them.
Impossibles - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#191146) #

I really really don't see MLB even considering changing the playoff format.  They will just point to the last 3 years and say "see, there is parity in the AL East".

Pistol - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#191148) #
Either 2 wild cards with a one game playoff between them to decide who faces the strongest division winner

I think this is a great idea - it gives a lot more meaning to a division title.  Both in that you wouldn't have a one game round to make it to the final 8, but you'd have to burn through a pitcher that your opponent in the next round wouldn't have to.
christaylor - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#191150) #
I'm definitely not a fan of adding more playoff teams. 4 is plenty, but I think the answer lies in taking the top 4 teams in each league (without regard to division) and a balanced intra-league and with as balanced an inter-league schedule as possible. The biggest travesty in the system is how often the AL East teams have to beat up on each other with the other two AL division getting off comparitively easy.

As for the BP hit-list... I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees slide behind the Jays at some point. Last I checked they were quite close in third-order wins.
Barry Bonnell - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#191152) #
On the BP hit list I enjoyed the dig at J.P. To quote: " we'd be lying if we thought J.P. Ricciardi had a better way to spend the $24 million Burnett's departure would save. Extensions for David Eckstein and Lyle Overbay may not be too far off... "
John Northey - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#191153) #
The 2 wild cards per league idea was floated somewhere online but I forget where a few years ago.  Loved the concept as a one game playoff is always exciting and the idea of division winners being more important than wild card makes a lot of sense.

Now, as to just taking the top 4 per league - would that have helped (not adjusting for schedule strength) the Jays?
2008: Perfect order, wild card 4th best team
2007: Perfect order, wild card tied with 3rd place division leader
2006: 3rd place division leader was behind wild card but not behind anyone else
2005: Weird year, one division leader had 97 wins then the other two and wild card all were 95-67
2004: Wild card better than two division leaders, but top 4 all made playoffs
2003: AL Central winning Minnesota was 2 games behind non-playoff team Seattle, but 4 of top 5 in playoffs
2002: Wild card better than one division winner, but top 4 all in
2001: Wild card won 102 games, better than 2 division leaders but again top 4 all in
2000: Cleveland missed out despite being better than AL East leading (WS winning) Yankees, 4 of top 5 in
1999: Perfect order, wild card 4th best team
1998: Wild card better than 2 division leaders, Toronto tied with AL West winner for 4th best record
1997: Wild card better than 2 division leaders, top 4 all in
1996: Perfect order, wild card 4th best team
1995: Perfect order, wild card 4th best team
1994: Texas lead AL West when the strike hit with a 456 winning percentage, every team outside of the West was better (worst 4 all in the same division)

So in the history of the wild card we saw only one really ugly situation (1994 the first year it would've been in place).  The italics show the years something would've been affected - 3 out of 13 playoffs ('94 of course had no playoffs).  1998 the Jays would've had to have a one game playoff with the West leading Rangers, 2000 Cleveland would've been in over the Yankees, 2003 Seattle over Minnesota.  Costing the Yankees their last World Series and the Jays their one playoff shot since '93 (and possibly a chance for Tim Johnson to save his job via the winning 6 of the last 7 to get into a one game playoff).
Heraclitus - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#191154) #
Wilkerson to the DL to make room for Bautista, who has uniform # 23.
92-93 - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#191155) #
The less ABs available for Brad Wilkerson, the better. I'd be surprised if Cito took out Scutaro for tonight after his performance last night, so maybe we see Bautista for the first time tomorrow when they go righty-heavy vs. Lester.
rtcaino - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#191156) #

I have thought for a while now that a good solution was to go back to 2 divisions per league, and have four wild cards.

Then winning the division means a lot, we can increase the play-offs by four teams (12 Total), and still have less teams than the rest of the north american sports (which for some perverse reason, is an important objective to maintain).  

However, I feel at that, most people would feel that it is too many teams in the play-offs.

But I would be happy with a wild-card play-off also. I'd take Roy Halladay anyday in a one game play-off... if only we could do something about the heart of the order and this team is all set! 

grjas - Friday, August 22 2008 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#191157) #
Either way, we'll need some help from Minnesota and/or the White Sox

Well yeah but after 15 freaking years of drudgery, I would be happy with one meaningful game in September. Just one JP. Is that too much too ask?
August 22, 2008: On a Roll | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.