If Toronto could get Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus to center a deal around a few other good prospects I think I would have to consider it.

Halladay wont be here forever, and at some point (maybe after next year if this team is still floating around 85 wins) you have to start looking at other options. Halladays highest value will be in the coming years, and if this team is not truly a contender then he is the best chip to play to turn things around. The Rotation would definatly not be the same, but if Toronto got pitching in return it could be a win win situation. Toronto has some young guys pretty close, I would love to see them build that group and keep guys like Hill, Rios, Marcum, McGowan around as well.

First thought is 'nooooo'.  Second thought is, why not?

In Halladay we have an ace, a workhorse, a guy every team wants.  We also have a pitcher who is turning 32 and has been worked hard the last 3 years.

Remember Dave Stieb?  Like Halladay he was a workhorse, an ace, a guy everyone wanted.  At 32 he had one of his better years going 18-6 over 33 starts, his 9th in a row over 30 starts and 8th out of 9 in a row over 200 IP.  A 140 ERA+ plus a no-hitter.  The rest of his career consisted of a total of 30 starts over 4 seasons going 10-14.  It happens, and it happens more than we'd like.  Frank Viola also came to mind, at 33 he had an ERA+ of 148 over 29 starts then had a total of 15 ML games left.  Many others I'm sure come to peoples mind with just a bit of thought.

So, if you trade the mid-30 years of Halladay for the full career of some of the better prospects in the game it might not be a bad idea to pull the trigger. 

The Texas idea listed as its core Derek Holland, a 21 year old who has torn up the minors so far and looks like a 'wow'.  Others listed were Brandon Boggs (OF, 25, 824 OPS in AAA), Elvis Andrus (CA, 19, 706 OPS in AA), Omar Poveda (P, 20, A+, solid arm), Beau Jones (P, 21, A+/AA, wild but a live arm).   So say the Jays get Holland and another of the arms plus the catcher... that would be tempting.  I doubt it would happen, but JP almost traded Rios for 'unproven' Tim Lincecum and how good would that look today (164 ERA+ over 170 IP)?

Probably the most important question is whether Halladay is willing to sign another contract with the Jays.   There is a distinct possibility that, reluctantly, he will prefer to leave -- either by free agency or by trade.   He wants to play for a winner.  He's never had the chance.  Unless the Jays can make the playoffs next year, why would he keep giving endless chances to the Jays to get it together?   And if it becomes clear that he will not sign again with the Jays, the team should trade him.   And they probably will.

I would certainly take a package centered on Holland and Andrus (though Texas isn't a great fit for the Jays because they would be pushing the inclusion of one of their excess catchers, one of the few positions we don't really need).

On the other hand, there is zero chance that J.P. moves Halladay this winter.  I don't think he would even entertain the idea in a general sense.  If he admits that the contention window is closed (or that it was never open) and it's time to rebuild, he'll be on the street in minutes.

If the Jays were to decide to gut the team by dealing Halladay to Texas, I would insist that that they blow up the team and also send Wells.  I can't imagine the Jays look forward to paying Wells 18M a year for his middling performance.  Then you could move Rios to centerfield (he already hits like one) and fill the outfield corners with Lind and Snider.  This doesn't even consider the goodies that would come from Texas.

but JP almost traded Rios for 'unproven' Tim Lincecum and how good would that look today (164 ERA+ over 170 IP)?

That's comparing apples and oranges, to use an old expression. Halladay is not only a better and more valuable player than Rios, but has also had a far longer track record of success. Lincecum is also a significantly better prospect than any of the four the Rangers are offering.

Trading Halladay for a top pitching prospect, a top position prospect (preferably SS) and 2 or more good prospects (at least one more pitcher) is something the team should do, but JP would never do.

Trading him would signal that the Jays are out of it for at least 2 years and entering the rebuilding mode. That's bad for business and the question is whether JP would be in charge of it. Also, then you can't stop with Halladay, send out Marcum after this season and Rios if he rebounds next year.

I think the trade value will never be higher than this winter. If he signs an extension, he becomes harder (impossible?) to move and if he doesn't, the following winter he would be a one year rental, which gives you not even half of what you can get this year.

I'm sure the team will listen to a few proposals (if they don't extend him) but ultimately will decide they are close and they have a shot in 09. That will likely fail, cost JP his head, and then they will trade Roy and whatever else has a marginal value for much less than they could get now.

"Trading Halladay for a top pitching prospect, a top position prospect (preferably SS) and 2 or more good prospects (at least one more pitcher) is something the team should do, but JP would never do."

I agree. I don't see the Jays seriously contending over the next couple of years and by that point Halladay's value will probably be dipping. The Jays could effectively rebuild their entire core trading Halladay (And make the new core Lind, Snider, Cecil, prospects they get trading Halladay and Rios). How much could the Jays have got from the Brewers this year if Sabathia who is becoming a FA got Laporta, Bryson, and Jackson.?Gallardo and Gamel could both have been in play as well. I still would not trade him for anything less than a package including two top prospects/young major leaguer and a group of other decent ones. I wonder if the Cards would be willing to part with Rasmus since Ludwick and Ankiel emerged...It's all obviously conjecture, I just worry that the Jays will get nothing more than a couple of picks because if the Jays are as mediocre as they are likely to be over the next couple of years, Halladay will probably leave.

Let me preface this by noting that I love watching Roy Halladay pitch.  Grown-ups aren't supposed to have favourite players, but I do and its Doc.

J.P. should ask himself the same question that he should ask himself in every situation, from free agent signings to draft choices to breakfast cereal options: WWBBD? The examples of Mulder, Hudson, Haren, Harden and Blanton (and Zito, sort of) indicate that Beane would have dealt Halladay in his age 27 or 28 season.  While that is clearly now impossible, Halladay has managed to navigate the minefields of his late 20s/early 30s without chronic injury or decline - so there is still time.

For the reasons mentioned by some above, Ricciardi will not deal Halladay at the top of his value.  This despite the fact that trading a top starting pitcher does not necessarily indicate a re-build, or even that the team will perform worse than it has recently. 

Frankly, the expectation of success should have a negative correlation to the degree to which one's team relies on pitchers over 30 years of age.  Get better now by trading Halladay for near-ready prospects; embrace the contradiction; admit that, like pineapple on pizza and the Monty Hall Problem, trading away fantastic pitchers works despite its apparent lunacy!

Near ready prospects? Like Hughes and Kennedy?

"Prospects" are rarely ever near-ready. How many great players in the game today were ready when they were prospects?

And how many prospects turned out to burn up in the afterglow of some early success?

If there were a Hanley Ramirez or a Cole Hamels out there, great. But if you're getting a young A.J. Burnett who has stuff that is near-ready? Or a young Roy Halladay who is near-ready?  Might not be so near to stardom.

Nor is there any more certainty that Roy is ready to be turned into glue. Who's to say he doesn't challenge for the Cy at least a few times before 35? What's that worth? An outfielder who might be an All-star in 2014 and a dependable, slightly above-average starter in the mold of Ted Lilly by 2011?

If you are trading Roy for all the certainty of prospects without ample reason to move him, you are living very dangerously.

J.P. should ask himself the same question that he should ask himself in every situation, from free agent signings to draft choices to breakfast cereal options: WWBBD?

Beane and Ricciardi work in different financial environments. Beane has no choice but to move players when they get expensive. Ricciardi has the luxury of not always having to do so. Would Beane, with Ricciardi's budget, have moved everyone he did?

As an aside, while I am generally impressed with Beane's ability to horse trade, I can't help but think that the team currently has far more quantity in prospects than actual quality. There is bulk, to be sure, but is there star potential?

If JP is still the GM this off-season, then Halladay is not gone.  Especially if AJ walks.

But...if a new GM is in town say by November 1st, I think he sits the entire organization down for a "State of the Franchise" address and any & all ideas are thrown about to see what has merit.

And I agree with one of the earlier comments, that if any talks re:Halladay get serious enough, Wells has to be taken with him (ala Lowell w/Beckett).  Because after 2010, that contract becomes an absolute ANCHOR on this team's payroll and if we think Wells is a falling star now...Wait til you see what we'll have by then :(

JP doesn't seem to properly determine peak value in his dealings with elite players. Wells got a huge contract after his second great year. Thomas got signed after a great year. Delgado got what turned out to be a low offer when he was leaving (although I seem to recall a lot of general surprise with how much money was thrown around that winter). Ryan was signed to a record closer deal and missed an entire year (something that was a concern voiced before hand), and has come back as a lesser version of himself - still good, just not as good. I can't think of anyone else I would put in the elite class as I see it (being those players good enough to be one of the top 2-3 players at their position when going well). It's indicative of being a mid-range team with a mid-range payroll. In some ways, Billy Beane has a much easier job. He knows he won't be able to afford his best players down the line, so he trades them (when he didn't, he got stuck with Chavez, who hasn't worked out). Beane has been freakishly good at his job and acquiring young talent, no doubt about that, but it is easier when he doesn't have to decide between "trade for prospects" or "sign established player" very often.

So far, Halladay, signed for below market levels, has been Ricciardi's greatest success as a GM, or at least his most visible one. Average Joe fan doesn't care that JP builds good bullpens on the cheap as much as they want to see superstars earning their money. Delgado sopped up a lot of payroll, but he did deliver the performance. Halladay has been even better, in that he makes less than Delgado had been, for roughly similar peformances (Delgado was a frequent peripheral MVP candidate, Halladay is a step up from that for the Cy Young).

I agree with other posters who note that JP can't trade Halladay - that's admitting failure, at which point he would be fired. You don't get to rebuild twice, one would hope. But I don't see much in the past that would point to Ricciardi being able/willing to "sell high" on a great player. He's bought high(Thomas), sold low (Thomas again), resigned high(Wells), failed at buying low(Delgado), but never sold high on a player the calibur of Halladay (who are admittedly rare).

I wouldn't deal doc for any package another team would offer. Sure, he MIGHT be Stieb, but he also might be Smoltz or Ryan.

I understand the Beane model of always being willing to trade anybody but Doc is our Cal Ripkin, our George Brett, or Tony Gwynn.

No, I don't trade Doc, even if the offer looks overwhelming in prospects. the only way I'd even think about it is if the players you were getting back were extablished young minor leaguers....like, for instance, you were dealing Doc and Overbay and Diaz for Liriano and Mauer and Morneau.

or Doc for Kershaw and Martin and Looney.

In other words, trades the other team would never do.

I hope, when considering WWBBD, any GM would have the sense to disregard WBBDD (i.e., what he did do) at the 2003-07 drafts.

I understand the Beane model of always being willing to trade anybody but Doc is our Cal Ripkin, our George Brett, or Tony Gwynn

I don't think we can assume he's going to sign an extension -- and even if he is, it might not be a good idea, because the chances of him being Smoltz or Ryan are lower than of him being almost anybody else.

Also, I don't agree that the Jays should package Halladay and Wells. Yes, Wells gets a lot of money, but if Halladay and AJ are gone the team has the money (assuming attendance doesn't fall too much) and forcing the other team to take him reduces the number of teams you can deal him to and, more importantly, will reduce the number/ quality of prospects the Jays could get in return. And don't forget, if salaries keep rising, Wells might not be even as overpaid in 2011-2014 as we think right now.

I am in favour of full scale demolition so I would trade Doc for the best group of three prospects I could find.  I would also get rid of Wells, Rolen, AJ, BJ, Zaun, Downs, Overbay, Eck, and Downs.  Some of those guys would not net much if anything but the combined fire sale would net some good draft picks for a few years.

The bottom line is that this team simply is not going to win in the next two or three years.  There is not enough offense (holes at DH, SS, 2B?, and average just about everywhere else) and with BJ leaving, and the injury to McGowan, the pitching will slip too.

For me, it doesn't matter if they lose 75 games or 95.  Both mean missing the playoffs.  In fact, I would live with 95 losses of there was a plan in place.

Tear it down, get some high end picks to go with some top end prospects from the trades, mix them in with Snider, Cecil, Lind, Litsch, and some of the guys in the lower minors and the Jays could be a contendah.

I'd agree that JP would not trade Halladay unless presented with an insanely crazy offer (say, 3 high level prospects plus a guy who is already an ace elsewhere plus a star shortstop).  Even JP has a limit to the amount of negative press he can live with :)

However, should a new GM come in all bets are off.  New GM's, especially if they come in from outside the team, like to make a splash quickly so their mark can be on the team.  Trading Halladay and/or Wells would do that while creating payroll flexibility.  So JP haters, watch out you just might get more than you bargined for!

Unrelated:
Blue Jays have aquired INF Jose Bataista from the Pirates for a player to be named later.

New HR Leader! 

I am in favour of full scale demolition so I would trade Doc for the best group of three prospects I could find.  I would also get rid of Wells, Rolen, AJ, BJ, Zaun, Downs, Overbay, Eck, and Downs.  Some of those guys would not net much if anything but the combined fire sale would net some good draft picks for a few years.

I don't think the Jays are ever going to do what the Marlins are doing. After all, they have some fans and season ticket holders so they at least have to appear they are trying -- and differently from Florida, they can afford to spend some money. In that light, selling low on Wells, BJ, Overbay... doesn't make sense for them. Sell their top asset, maybe another piece with a good return (Downs?).

Whoops.
That should read Jose Bautista.
Gah.

"Elvis Andrus (CA, 19, 706 OPS in AA)"

Andrus is actually a (much more valuable to the Jays) SS.

I like this acquisition. Bautista no doubt serves as Rolen insurance. He is cheap, consistent (OPS+ 94, 96, 93), below average as a starter but a servicable backup at 3B and a passable 5th OF. He offers more utility to this team than Eckstein and is a better option at 3B than Scutaro, whose modest bat doesn't play so well away from the middle infield.

Right now, Bautista could take Mench's place as DH vs LHP or he could take over at 3B until Rolen returns. It will be interesting to see if he's added to the major league mix right away or only comes on board in September.

Bautista has had a wild career for someone who debuted in 2004.  That season saw him play for four different teams.  I recall him once being a pretty highly touted player.  Perhaps the Jays can catch some lightning in a bottle here.  Or not......

Bautista has power and can take a walk. Can't hit otherwise and strikes out an absurd amount though. A pretty good pickup though.

Wow do I feel dumb.  Andrus is a SS - I got the CA from mis-reading the linked article as he mentioned the catching depth in Texas right after mentioning Andrus' name.  Doh.

So a very young SS, a hotshot pitcher, and 2 other talented players?  Depending what the scouts say about them (attitude, injury risk, odds of skills translating to the majors) I'd have trouble saying no.  The Jays have depth in the rotation, more coming back, plus a major hole at short.  I'd still try to use someone else in the deal though - think they'd like McGowan?

Perhaps the Jays can catch some lightning in a bottle here.  Or not......

Yes, it's Tony Batista all over again. Scuffling Jays team, in need of power boost, uncovers slugger after learning that infielder would be lost for season.

And if Bautista doesn't work out, Wikipedia suggests that Batista himself is a free agent.

I go back and forth on trading Halladay. Trading him would be an unequivocal statement that the team is rebuilding from the ground up. If Roy is dealt for elite prospects, and AJ becomes a Type A free agent and leaves (giving the Jays two high draft picks), the Jays could suddenly have one of the best farm systems in baseball.

On the other hand, Halladay could end up pitching well for another 5+ years. And he is absolutely someone you want heading up your pitching staff--for his dominant performances, work ethic, efficiency, ability to pitch deep into games, and leadership. He sets the standard for everyone else (I tend to think that he's had a good effect on the other starters, but of course there is no way to really know whether this is the case).

Either way, I can't wait to watch Halladay pitch tonight. You think he might want to win this one, oh, just a wee bit?

So a very young SS, a hotshot pitcher, and 2 other talented players?  Depending what the scouts say about them (attitude, injury risk, odds of skills translating to the majors) I'd have trouble saying no.

Derek Holland isn't a hotshot pitcher, from what I've read. He may be a prospect who's establishing himself on the radar screen, but he was nowhere close to being rated on any Top 100 list last offseason. I don't think he's going to be cracking any top 50 lists this offseason. (I'd probably define "hotshot" as a top 30-50 prospect.)

I'd have trouble saying yes to this package. The Jays have catching depth, so I'm assuming they wouldn't target a catcher in a trade. That'd leave the other two players as something like Brandon Boggs and Omar Poveda. I agree Andrus would solve an organisational depth problem, but I'd want more for Halladay. He's everything you want in a pitcher. Talented. Consistent. Durable. Am I being a homer or unrealistic? Maybe, but depending on the PTBNLs, I might rather have the CC package than this, and this isn't for a 2 month rental.

That package isn't even close to enough. It's not even in the same ballpark.

The Jays wouldn't, and shouldn't, trade Halladay. He's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, he likes it here, he's not anywhere close to his decline phase, and they wouldn't be able to get anything remotely good enough for him. You win by acquiring or keeping star players, not by trading them.

Besides, he hates pitching in hot weather. He wouldn't do well in Texas.

Can you step outside the "Oh my gawd, if they ever trade Doc, I am gone" box and evaluate this trade possibiltiy?

No.

The Jays have depth in the rotation, more coming back

Huh??

Of the six guys vying for starting spots at the beginning of the year, two are significantly injured, one is demoted, one is soon to leave and then we trade Halladay? And the last one spent significant time on the DL.

While trading Halladay is not out of the question, it better be a heck of a deal. As I posted in April, (data at that point):

halladay record since 2002: 93-38 or .710
BJ record without a halladay decision: 388-452 or .462

BJ's without Halladay would have been the Orioles (or worse). We'd better be awfully careful...

You've got the best pitcher in baseball signed for two years at a below market contract.  Now, you can quibble with the first part, but not much. What can you possibly get back that would be fair value? I can't remember the last time such a player was traded, and it seems to me that most of the time these trades are made the team that trades the star winds up regretting it.

If you can't sign Doc to an extension, then trade him after next season, when in all likelihood his trade value will still be astronomically high and you're only giving up half as much. But Doc is, as several people have noted, the best thing the Jays have had since the Series wins. He's one of the great stories of the past decade in baseball, and there appears to be at least a chance that he wants to play here his whole career. There's no reason to believe that he's on the verge of losing it. I'm not "gone," if they trade Doc, but I will be extremely upset (in the ridiculous baseball-fan way) if they do. And it seems to me that I'm not wrong in that reaction.

From today's Newberg Report ...

"One reason to be pessimistic about the idea of trading for Roy Halladay this winter (well, two): Toronto’s general manager, J.P. Ricciardi, doesn’t have enough job security to tear the thing down and start to rebuild, and manager Cito Gaston is 64 years old.  Hard to imagine Halladay going anywhere, all things considered."