Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Lot's going on, none of it Jay related.


No Jays trade rumours at all in the local media today who are focusing instead on the blow the Jays dealt to the olympic hopes of Team Canada by calling up Scott Richmond for yesterday's start. 

Elsewhere in the division the Yankees acquired Pudge for Kyle Farnsworth yesterday.  This one looks like steal for the Yankees, Dombrowski must believe Farnsworth can keep up his June and July pace for the rest of the year, since June 1st Farnsworth has a 2.82 ERA in 19 Innings of work with a 21/8 K/BB ratio.  Pitching more in Detroit might help out his problem with the home run too.  The Rays are apparently interested in Jason Bay (and are rumoured to have offered Brignac and Neimann for him) Ken Rosenthal reports they are also kicking the tires on Adam Dunn.  Theo Epstein though is once again trying to out-do everyone at the deadline, you have to hand it to Theo he does thing big when it comes to trades.  There is a three way trade being reported all over the place that has Manny going to Florida along with his salary for the rest of the year and a guarantee he will not accept arbitration when it is offered after the season, Jeremy Hermida would be going to Pittsburgh along with a Marlins prospect and some player(s) from the Red Sox system and Jason Bay and John Grabow going to Boston.  Given the deteriorating relationship between manny and the Sox front office this seems like a good deal for Boston, bay is signed cheaply through next year and will net a couple of draft picks if the Sox don't extend him.  Long term this is a head scratcher for Florida, but I like to see a front office that's prepared to roll the dice when they think there's a chance to have a run at the play-offs, and Hermida is about to reach arbitration and might be about to get a bit expensive for Florida's tastes.  I think this deal will go through, it makes sense for all the teams involved (provided the prospects going to the Pirates are of some value).

Old friend Chris Carpenter made his season debut for St Louis yesterday, going four Innings for one run against Atlanta.

No game today, the Jays travel to Texas for a weekend series, unfortunately - good things don't tend to happen in Arlington for this franchise.

31 July 08 | 137 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Barry Bonnell - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#189854) #
Chuck - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#189856) #
Odd trade for the White Sox. Griffey's three possible positions -- LF, RF, DH -- are currently manned by Quentin, Dye and Thome, all better players. It's hard to imagine Griffey playing CF at this stage of his career. Maybe that's the plan.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#189857) #
If the White Sox believe Griffey can play center field, another possibility would be to move Nick Swisher to first base, where Swisher filled in for nearly a month when Konerko was on the disabled list earlier this season. In that scenario, they would at least be stronger defensively at first with Swisher instead of Thome.

If the White Sox believe Griffey can play center field, I have some pigs which should be perfect for their next flight to the West Coast.
ayjackson - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#189860) #
Jim Callis answered an interesting question that had been on my mind yesterday during his ESPN chat.  He said that a team (Boston for now) can decline his option at the end of the year but still offer him arbitration to qualify for compensatory picks.  I think both Florida and Boston would decline the option, though I think it is of reasonable value.
Chuck - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#189861) #
One of the jillion rumours I read suggested that it would be understood that Ramirez would be offered arbitration but would agree up front to turn it down, thereby allowing Florida the draft picks.
Glevin - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#189862) #
The Pudge/Farnsworth trade is a good example of the Tigers massively panicking and letting it effect everything. They moved Jones out of the closer roll despite only blowing 3/21 saves. They spent their first 3 picks in the draft on relievers, and now they trade Pudge (which means 2 picks as well) for yet another reliever. What they really need is a starter anyway.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#189863) #
The defensive hit to the Tigers is very significant with Inge being a good third baseman, but a below average catcher, and Carlos Guillen being unable to play third base effectively at this point in his career. They won 14-12 yesterday; I suppose that you can win by bludgeoning the opponents into submission, and with Granderson, Polanco, Thames, Cabrera, Ordonez, Guillen, Sheffield and Inge in the lineup, they might score 6 runs per game from here on out.
GregD - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#189864) #
The Tigers are in a bad situation. Aside from Mags, and Renteria they really don't have any atractive players. They won't trade Verlander, Granderson, or Cabrera. Guillen has bad knees, Polanco is a good singles hitter and good defensively, but the Tigers can't afford to lose his glove. They play in one of the biggest stadiums but they have no speed at all. Why they made Rodney their closer is beyond me.
Moe - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#189865) #
I don't think the move is that bad for the Tigers:

They are a long-shot for the post-season anyways, and while the loss offensively is small, it should help their bullpen. It's not a big gain, but surely not a big loss either and given that they have no prospects, Pudge was really the only thing they could give up. (I don't thing they would have offered arbitration, so it won't cost them any picks). I think this is the best they could do, given the situation they are in.

At least they are TRYING to improve the club, instead of just waiting it out the way the Jays seem to operate yet again.


Jevant - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#189868) #
That must be what they are planning on doing though!  Unless they are going to move Quentin over?  Or platoon Griffey at first or something?

Weird trade.  It does (if nothing else) make their bench very scary (as one of Swisher, Thome, Griffey or Konerko would be on the bench every single day).

heronfish - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#189869) #
Not sure if this has been said here yet, but Stark is reporting the Jays are making a run at Bay.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3512875&name=mlb_trade_deadline

Could Lind be on his way out?

damos - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#189870) #
ESPN's Jayson Stark is reporting that the Jays have been talking to the Pirates about Bay.


Glevin - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#189871) #
As much as I'd love to see Bay in Canada, they Jays would have to give up Snider or Lind or Cecil to get him. Adding Bay would not be enough to make the Jays contenders. I don't see it happening really.
Pistol - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#189872) #
As much as I'd love to see Bay in Canada, they Jays would have to give up Snider or Lind or Cecil to get him.

Yeah, I imagine it'd take at least Lind, and they'd probably get another minor league as well (and a catcher would seem to make some sense).  I can't imagine Snider or Lind are play.

Bay would fit right in - a RH hitter on the beginning of the downside of his career and an escalating salary.
Timbuck2 - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#189874) #
At least they are TRYING to improve the club, instead of just waiting it out the way the Jays seem to operate yet again.

I would rather see the Jays do nothing than go into panic mode and start trading everything. I mean, we ARE talking about 'Enough is never Enough'  Riccardi here who just can't help but pick up players if he thinks it's a good deal.  It's like watching a little old ladies at garage sales or my wife at the dollar store.  They don't NEED what they're getting but it's so cheap they just can't help themselves.

See: David Eckstien, Bengi Molina, Shannon Stewart, etc... 

I may even include Mench and Wllkerson here too.  We already had Stewart, Coates Inglett and Lind as backup outfielders.  Why bother with the dynamic duo too?
RhyZa - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#189875) #
The asking price for Bay is way too steep for my liking.
Leigh - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#189876) #
Hopefully this is just JP trying to complicate things for the Red Sox... he only has to confuse the Pirates for another couple of hours.
RhyZa - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#189877) #
Hopefully.  Otherwise, I have to ask, what exactly is the point of replacing Lind (and probably more) with Bay?
Moe - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#189879) #
I would rather see the Jays do nothing than go into panic mode and start trading everything. I mean, we ARE talking about 'Enough is never Enough'  Riccardi here who just can't help but pick up players if he thinks it's a good deal.  It's like watching a little old ladies at garage sales or my wife at the dollar store.  They don't NEED what they're getting but it's so cheap they just can't help themselves.


I agree -- I don't think the Jays should go into panic mode now and get Bay. That would have been something to do in May, early June (or even better: March). All I was trying to stay is that staying put in a situation of both Tigers and Jays is counterproductive.

They should have tried to get a bad earlier and they didn't and now they should be selling -- even if it's just a few long shot prospects for Eckstein, Zaun, Stairs. Maybe you win the lottery and one of them works out in a few years. And it's not like selling these characters now is going to cost us anything next season. Then, call up some prospects, drop in the standing and move up in the draft.

Btw, this is something no one ever talks about in baseball and all the time in the NBA: Trying to make a run that is not really going to happen as opposed to giving up and selling everything low may cost you something like 10 spots in the draft. Now, in baseball it takes much longer to develop players and the odds are lower, but the chances of getting an all star with say pick 10 must be better then with pick 20. Plus, if you sign a type A free agent and you pick 10 you get to keep your pick.

Moe - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#189881) #
From Ken Rosenthal
"As of 1:30 p.m. ET, the Manny Ramirez trade was "dead," according to an executive with one of the three teams involved in the discussions."

Hope this does not mean the Jays got Bay.

Schad - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#189882) #
Bay would be a tremendous addition to the middle of the line-up, but this again begs the question: in what direction is this team headed? The Jays are set to lose Burnett, and unless one or more of the farmhands suddenly prove to be major league ready, it's almost guaranteed that the rotation will take a step back. The offense is comprised mostly of proven players, and with the exception of Rios (and perhaps Hill) there's no one likely to improve dramatically next season. Thus, what exactly would trading cost-controlled youngsters for Bay accomplish? If such a trade did go down, it would be the latest example of the organization's desire to remain just competitive enough to keep attendance and television viewership from foundering, even if it means building a team with a 85-88 win ceiling.
#2JBrumfield - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#189883) #
The ESPN trade blog says the Jays are looking into Raul Ibanez.  Maybe they'll take back Wilkerson?  What's Jay Buhner doing these days?
MondesiRules - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#189884) #
Schad - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#189885) #
Ibanez is a free agent after this year, and his numbers are probably good enough to make him a Class A FA. He's old as dirt, though, so there's a significant risk that he would accept arbitration.

It might be giving JP far too much credit to believe that he's targeting him for that reason, though.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#189888) #
Ibanez and Bay are players that "buyers" should be interested in.  Trading anything of substance for them does not make sense for the team.
Ozzieball - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#189889) #
Ibanez and Bay are players that "buyers" should be interested in.  Trading anything of substance for them does not make sense for the team.

Pirates asked for Snider + Marcum. Riccardi did not call back.
RhyZa - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#189890) #
.. and would reek as a desperation move by JP, to fire off his last bullets before going down in a line of fire.  I will give him the benefit of the doubt, but hopefully there will be someone to reign him in should this be the case.
mathesond - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#189891) #
Agree, Mike G. Ibanez is a decent complementary player, but his age and production do not suggest a player that will put the Jays over the top now or in the future.

Unless...Jays trade Wells for Manny, and Lind for Bay. Rios would certainly have to cover a lot of ground, though. But having Rios/Bay/Manny/Ibanez would pretty much ensure an end to the Eckstein as DH shenanigans.

And while they're at it, where's the Burnett for Andy LaRoche deal?

mathesond - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#189892) #
Snider + Marcum for Bay? Well, there goes my half-assed trade balloon
zeppelinkm - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#189893) #

The only way I'm OK with the Jays getting Bay is if they don't give up Lind or Snider. I could deal with Cecil being traded (I suppose I could)...  and somehow give away Overbay (eat salary, I don't care). Move Lind to first and put Bay in LF.  Offence improves, infield D takes a hit, and then we just go looking for ways to sign Manny to DH for us next year.

Dave Rutt - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#189894) #
Konerko's HR/Fly rate has declined every year since 2004.
Year  HR/Fly
2004  18.6%
2005  17.5%
2006  16.1%
2007  14.1%
2008  9.6%
It certainly seems like his power has been on a sharp decline. Also, this year his GB% and IF/F% are way up, both bad signs for a slugger like Paul. Interestingly, his LD% is up to 20.5% from 17.4% last year, so it would be reasonable to expect his average to increase quite a bit (it sits at .214 right now). All in all though, I can't see Konerko returning to anywhere near his 2004-2006 peak.

Not that Griffey is a long term solution. :) Is there a Ken Griffey Jr. Jr.?
Pistol - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#189895) #
Is there a Ken Griffey Jr. Jr.?

They call him Trey so I assume Jr, Jr is III.
Dave Rutt - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#189896) #
jeff mcl - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#189897) #
Decent Pirates return for Bay: Brignac and Niemann.  Did JP think Littlefield would give him away for nothing?

JustinD - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#189898) #
Wow. Don't know much about those Rays prospects, but it definitely helps them for this year. Whats with this Ibanez stuff? I liked him like 3 or 4 years ago. Same with Wilkerson. Ibanez will definitely help us get to 87 wins so thats good right? I think we didn't go after Bonds cause he was too young. Jesse Barfield or Dave Winfield want to help us out?
Ozzieball - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#189899) #
Did JP think Littlefield would give him away for nothing?

Hmm yes a GM makes a single phone call asking about the theoretical possibility of a player who is available. Surely this means that the GM is absolutely terrible.
Dave Rutt - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#189900) #
Surely this means that the GM is absolutely terrible.

According to Wikipedia, "David Littleyield" is a terrible GM. (Terrible former GM, that is)
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#189901) #
Bay for Niemann and Brignac makes sense for both teams.  I like Niemann quite a bit; Brignac not so much.  I expect that Niemann/Brignac will deliver more bang for the buck than Bay, but Bay will help the Rays win.  Starting pitching is a strength for the Rays, and it looks like Bartlett will remain at short until Tim Beckham is ready.  Things could be worse for a club...
Pistol - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#189902) #
Niemann and Brignac... the equivalent for the Jays would be Cecil and Jeroloman?

Must be nice to have a great young team, with prospects to trade for veteran pieces and still have a strong minor league system after doing so.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#189903) #
"Ibanez and Bay are players that "buyers" should be interested in. Trading anything of substance for them does not make sense for the team."

Agreed. Ibanez is a decent hitter, but he's also 36. How much sense could acquiring him make? I'm guessing the Jays want more offense for this year (to make an improbable run at the playoffs, and perhaps appease their disgruntled players and fans), and as someone they could offer arbitration to, and possibly gain draft picks for, at the end of the year. But surely the M's are aware of this, and asking for a decent haul in return. If the Jays send the M's any of their good young players, or top 10-12 prospects, I'll be seriously miffed.

As for the Jason Bay trade, kudos to TB for a smart deadline deal. They hang on to their top prospects and provide a nice boost to their offense. This strengthens their playoff chances this year. And they'll have Bay next year, too.
Newton - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#189904) #

This just in, Adam Dunn leads the majors in Home Runs... lazy as all get out though, we wouldn't want him on our club next year. 

PeteMoss - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#189905) #

Baseball Prospectus says the Jays are 'very close' to landing Ibanez.  It obviously will depend on what goes to Seattle, but sounds like a move a GM trying to save his job would make instead of a move that helps the team long-term.

PeteMoss - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#189906) #
One thing to keep in mind that has me worried is that Seattle's been asking for a heck of a lot of their guys... Washburn and Beltre were clearly available but teams wouldn't match their demands. 
mathesond - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#189907) #
I'm scared...I just had a vision of Brett Cecil being traded for Ibanez.
Dave Rutt - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#189908) #
One thing to keep in mind that has me worried is that Seattle's been asking for a heck of a lot of their guys

Amen. I heard they demanded Fowler and Weathers from Colorado for Washburn. What will they want for Ibanez?
Jevant - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#189909) #
ESPN is now saying that Seattle backed off, and it was going to be a 2 for 1 involving all MLB players.  Not clear who was giving up two and who was getting one.

Apparently Ibanez is NOT moving now.

Ozzieball - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#189910) #
Baseball Prospectus says the Jays are 'very close' to landing Ibanez.  It obviously will depend on what goes to Seattle, but sounds like a move a GM trying to save his job would make instead of a move that helps the team long-term.

Ibanez theoretically comes with two draft picks strapped to his back, so saying that this is not a move that helps the team long term is pretty wrong. They're also only 6.5 games out with Stairs/Eckstein at DH. This is pretty much the exact type of move they should be making*. Not that Riccardi can ever do anything without a deafening chorus of boos accusing him of trying to destroy baseball in Canada.

*Obviously contingent on what's given up.


damos - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#189911) #
Hang up J.P.!!
China fan - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#189912) #
Ibanez has an OPS+ of 119 this year.  That would make him the second-best hitter on the Jays, behind only Adam Lind.  If the Jays can obtain him without giving up anyone important, why not do it?  Given his age and status, there's a chance that the Mariners would give him up without demanding a huge return.   I don't see any reason to bash Ricciardi for at least exploring this deal.
Ozzieball - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#189913) #
http://minors.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/07/bay_not_a_ray_yet.html

Apparently the Rays might have just yanked one of Brignac or Niemann off the table.

Ron - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#189914) #
Did JP think Littlefield would give him away for nothing?

Littlefield isn't the GM of the Pirates.

Jevant - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#189915) #
A valid point, and a particularly damning indictment of the offense on the team currently. 

I wouldn't be opposed. I've also heard that both Stairs and Zaun have interest from the Marlins - and the sticking point is apparently money (surprise, surprise with Florida involved).

mathesond - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#189916) #
Just read on the BBTF board that apparently Seattle pulled out of the Ibanez deal - and that they were to have received Purcey and league. According to the poster, this came from Stark
whiterasta80 - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#189917) #
Wells for Manny is just crazy enough to work.  I'd probably be willing to throw in a B+ prospect (Jerolman, or Romero?) to get it done
Ryan Day - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#189918) #
If Ricciardi actually offered Purcey & League, and Seattle actually turned it down, then everyone involved is crazy.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#189919) #

I'd prefer not to move Purcey until we know what we've got.  He's still a former first round pick.  If they want Davis Romero or heck, Scott Richmond they can have them.

China fan - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#189920) #
One more point about Ibanez is that he's been incredibly consistent.  In seven of the past eight seasons, he has posted an OPS+ of between 115 and 125.    My guess is that he's likely to keep posting those kinds of numbers for another two or three years at least, if the Jays can obtain him at a reasonable price and extend his contract at an affordable cost.  The outfield then might become Rios, Wells and Ibanez, with Lind shifted to first base and Overbay traded.    Purcey and League is too high a price to pay for Ibanez, but those particular names might just be wild speculation.
Lefty - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#189922) #
Benji molina was a contributer the year he was here. He could even throw the odd runner out.
Frank Markotich - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#189923) #
Stark said nothing about Purcey and League - he named no names. Purcey and League were just some guy's speculation on BBTF. Let's not get carried away.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#189924) #
Ibanez is now a very poor defensive outfielder.  A 115+ OPS, weighted to slugging, with poor defence, out of a corner outfielder aint worth much. 

The Blue Jay outfield of 4 weeks from now ought to be Lind, Rios and Wells left to right.  They're all better than Ibanez.

China fan - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#189925) #
Okay, then make Ibanez the DH.  Have you got a better candidate in the current Jays lineup?
Dave Rutt - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#189926) #
If Ricciardi actually offered Purcey & League, and Seattle actually turned it down, then everyone involved is crazy.

Maybe Bavasi hasn't actually left yet, and nobody's noticed.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#189927) #

I still think I'd be willing to do Ramirez for Wells and any two of Campbell, Cecil, Jerolman, Sobolewski, Romero, Dopriak, Tolisano, League and Litsch.

There won't be many more chances to unload Wells' huge contract and this might be an opportunity.  The added benefit being that, I'd feel alot more comfortable when the Sox had men at the corners and 1 out :-)

Ron - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#189928) #
Manny is now a Dodger according to Jon Heyman. What a great day for everybody in the AL East! I imagine Matt Kemp is part of the package that went to the Red Sox.
Ron - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#189929) #
Now it looks like it might be a 3 team deal with Bay heading to the Red Sox.
92-93 - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#189930) #
Kemp (Ethier, LaRoche?) more likely went to the Pirates, and the Sox got Bay. It's believed right now that the Dodgers replaced the Marlins in the 3-way.
Pistol - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#189931) #
And apparently Bay is going to Boston.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#189932) #
Ibanez would be a modest upgrade on Matt Stairs, but like I said, not worth giving much up for.  Anyways, it's the wrong kind of trade to be exploring- they're fishing, not cutting bait.
Dave Rutt - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#189933) #
Let the Manny playing for Torre stories begin.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#189934) #
The names of the Red Sox prospects involved will be very interesting. I wonder if Epstein will have a new crack ready about a 3-way at the press conference. Probably.  The man is always prepared.
Pistol - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#189935) #
 Trade Details:
Updated 4:28 p.m.: Manny traded to Dodgers

Manny Ramirez has been traded to the Dodgers in a three-team blockbuster, pending the approval of the commissioner's office, according to a source with knowledge of the deal.

Pirates outfielder Jason Bay is headed to the Red Sox. The Pirates will receive Andy LaRoche and right-hander Bryan Morris from the Dodgers and outfielder Damien Moss and reliever Craig Hansen from the Red Sox.

The Red Sox will pay all of the approximately $7 million remaining on Ramirez's contract.


So the Pirates gave up Bay for 4 players?  Seems like a really good deal for them.

The Sox traded Ramirez, $7 million and 2 prospects for Bay (although he's cheap next year).  I guess they really wanted him gone.


Ron - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#189936) #
Manny to the Dodgers
Bay to the Red Sox
Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen, Damien Moss to the Pirates

I wonder what happens to Neil Walker. He's not exactly on fire in the minors but the Pirates viewed him as the long term 3B. I'm surprised the Pirates weren't able to get Matt Kemp. Well okay, we are talking about the Pirates, so I'm not surprised.



Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#189937) #
The Sox and Pirates did well.  The Dodgers did not. 

Bay is a good defensive outfielder with a noodle arm. He's perfect for Fenway.  Manny Ramirez ought to be a DH now, and is actually less valuable as a left-fielder than Bay is.   The Dodgers gave up more of the prospect talent than the Red Sox; it ought to have been the other way round in light of the fact that the Red Sox were stuck with Manny's salary...

Geoff - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#189938) #
First Tampa is officially Bay's home, then Boston? Is this one of those crazy days where two teams will lay claim to a player. He's either Ray Bay or Boston Bay.

Nice to see a LaRoche family reunion if that's what goes down. Pittsburgh will have two rocks at the corners to build around.

seeyou - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#189939) #
As long as that's Brandon Moss, not Damien, the Pirates got a pretty good haul.  Jays equivalents would be something along the lines of Ahrens, Purcey, League and Lind.  I imagine there'd be quite a few Jays fans who would be concerned if we gave up that to get Bay.
92-93 - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#189940) #
The Dodgers did not? What?! They added the thumping bat they needed for no cost at all, and all they had to part with to get him was a guy they clearly didn't want playing everyday at 3B anyways (Morris is not a big piece at all). I can't see how this trade could possibly be bad for the Dodgers, especially when you consider the 2 picks Manny's departure brings.
Geoff - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#189941) #
Are the Dodgers going to release Andruw Jones? He's signed for two years, $36M. They have Kemp and Ethier, and little Juan Pierre. James Loney mans first. What are they doing?
92-93 - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#189942) #
Obviously Andruw is going on waivers, clearing them, and then they will probably try to trade him (and take on most of the $s remaining on his contract) for anything they can get.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#189943) #

I would have paid that for Bay actually.

timpinder - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#189944) #

It has nothing to do with the trade deadline, but the Jays got some good news today.  Dustin McGowan did not need surgery on his rotator cuff.  He had successful surgery on his frayed labrum today and reports indicate that he should only miss the first couple of months of the 2009 season.

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080731.wsptmcgowan31/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#189945) #
In other non-deadline news, Shaun Marcum is now the scheduled starter for tomorrow's game.
seeyou - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#189947) #
I can't see how this trade could possibly be bad for the Dodgers, especially when you consider the 2 picks Manny's departure brings.

A couple of days ago, Manny was saying that to waive his no-trade clause, any club that would get him would have to turn down the team option for the next two years AND decline arbitration (thus, they wouldn't get two picks in the next draft).  Therefore, two months of Manny for five years of Andy LaRoche + pitching prospect is a little less in the Dodgers favour.  But if Manny helps the Dodgers get into the playoffs and puts up a quality post-season performance, I imagine most Dodger fans will be justifiably satisfied with this trade.
Glevin - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#189948) #
I find the whole Andy Laroche thing weird. I love him as a prospect, but the Dodgers never game him a shot, playing Blake Dewitt for a month after it was clear he couldn't hit. Now he goes to the Pirates who have two of the top 3rd base prospects in all of baseball. I say, generally, the Red Sox got the worst of this deal, but it's not bad for all teams involved.
Frank Markotich - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#189949) #

Reports had Tampa pulling their offer for Bay off the table. If true, and if the offer was as reported, then the Rays are either not serious about contending or they have financial constraints and couldn't get ownership to sign on to add Bay's salary. Either way, I'd be extremely upset if I were a Rays fan.

Perhaps it was the Pirates who backed out when the Manny deal came back to life.

Dan Daoust - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#189950) #
The Yankees are sitting pretty right now.  Nady for a bag of peanuts, Pudge for a bag of prunes, and now this.
James W - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#189951) #

Not trading for Bay isn't going to kill the Rays.  They'd apparently rather pay nothing and call up Rocco Baldelli after his rehabilitation stint, than to trade Niemann away.  As scary as it is, I think the Rays are STILL building for the future.

Ozzieball - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#189952) #
If Ricciardi actually offered Purcey & League, and Seattle actually turned it down, then everyone involved is crazy.

Purcey & League is pure speculation, there is no substance behind that.
TamRa - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#189953) #
This just in, Adam Dunn leads the majors in Home Runs... lazy as all get out though, we wouldn't want him on our club next year.

Given the lack of interest in him at the deadline, apparently we ain't the only ones. Maybe there IS something baseball people know that we don't.


Chuck - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#189954) #

I'm kinda with Frank. I'd have liked to have seen J Bay on T Bay, helping out in the middle of that lineup, goosing the Cinderella story just a little bit.

Perhaps the reluctance to pull the trigger reveals a belief that they don't truly, honestly, legitimately see themselves as being in a position to make a serious push this year, their current record notwithstanding. Or maybe that trigger was never there to be pulled in the first place.

I can't believe that Baldelli's imminent return (for how long?) would have any bearing.

RhyZa - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#189955) #
Did the Pirates really get enough though?  They seemed to be asking for the world and wound up with 1 real prospect.  Well that's if you trust Bosox fans version that Moss  is nothing but a 4th OF, and Hansen a fringe reliever.

As for Rays fans reaction, from ecstasy to agony  http://www.draysbay.com

slitheringslider - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#189956) #
I am glad the trade for Ibanez didn't go through. If JP is really disillusional enough to think that his .500 Jays team has a shot at the playoffs and think he should be a buyer instead of a seller, I might resign as a Jays fan until the Jays management hire someone competent to be our GM. Why would we add another outfielder? It doesn't make any sense. Zero.

Ideally, I was hoping JP would sell during the deadline. Obviously, I knew that was too much to ask, I came to accept status quo and mediocrity. But buying would just be unacceptable and irresponsible.

slitheringslider - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#189957) #
Sorry for double posting... but the discussion for Ibanez is reminiscient of Ash's deadline acquisitions such as Steve Trachsel and Esteban Loaiza. I thought I saw the last of useless deadline acquisitions when Ash left. Now JP is reverting back to form
Thomas - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#189958) #
I guess at this point I should stop checking the wires to see if the Jays made a trade right at the deadline...

Well, a quiet day, but the fact both Ramirez and Griffey went might have made up for it....

Gerry - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#189959) #
Here is the Seattle side from ex-Toronto Star scribe Geoff Baker.
RhyZa - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#189960) #
To realists, like most of you, and me, a snowball has a greater chance of lasting the afternoon in this Texas heat as the Jays do of making the playoffs. But in Toronto, the Jays could acquire Ibanez, then tell their fans they still have a chance and that they're going for it.

It's worked before. In that city, the team has told fans it's in contention if it begins September single digits behind the playoff leaders. Drives up the television ratings. And that's very important to Toronto baseball.

Tad bit insulting isn't it?

Mike Green - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#189962) #
I don't think we're in the middle ground,'' Ricciardi said. "I think we're in it. When you look up and you're under eight...within striking distance of the wild-card and there's still two months to play, I don't we ever thought about us as 'Hey we're going to be sellers.' We've taken on the thought process that if we continue to add without taking anything away from us going forward, that we would try to do that.''

Everybody has their own definition of "striking distance".
King Ryan - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#189963) #
The idea that the Jays are/were trying for Bay or Ibanez... I am so mad about that that that I can't even think my head around it. I honestly...how on earth has our GM gotten so delusional? Are you kidding me with this?  Raul Ibanez...I can't tell you how mad the THOUGHT of that trade makes me.    And that's without even knowing who would have gone to SEA.

Ridiculous.  Are you kidding me with this?  Ridiculous.

I hoped to log in and see Burnett gone, and instead I get that the Jays are/were looking to buy?  BUY?  Are you kidding?  Is this a joke?  Is it April 1st?  Jesus F.  

The Toronto Blue Jays are/were in NO position to buy.  They are/were not.   This is not even arguable.  Raul IBANEZ??

I literally cannot even believe this.  I'm going to reboot my computer and see if it changes.
RhyZa - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#189964) #
Well we would have likely got  the picks if Ibanez walked so maybe this was considered in approaching him.  Apparently Purcey wasn't involved, someone mentioned Lind as accompanying League on ussmariner but that seems too ridiculous to pass the smell test as well.   Bay didn't seem too serious, merely an inquiry.

Basically, it's not that surprising that there were some talks and nothing happened.  We're in that frustrating position of limbo where we need to do something, but there's not much we could do.  I'm not sure why Zaun is still here though.
Thomas - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#189965) #
There's a big difference between Bay and Ibanez. I have no problem with JP doing what he did in the first case - inquiring about the cost of Bay and hanging up when the answer was Snider and Marcum - but I join the crowd that's confused about the fact the team looked into acquiring Ibanez. FWIW, it seems like the package was League + some other player who wasn't Purcey.
Ron - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#189966) #
I do find it very strange that the Jays were in buying mode. Perhaps JP thought Ibanez was the big scary bat that the Jays lack right now. It's going to take roughly 95 wins to make the playoffs, and with ibanez in the line-up, perhaps JP thought the Jays could finish 41-13 the rest of the season. You have to remember JP is fighting for his job so having some sort of firesale isn't going to help his job security.

At least JP can go to Godrey and Rogers at the end of the season and mention how he did everything he could to improve his team during the deadline. It's not his fault if the other team gets cold feet. Also the Jays have been unlucky with injures. The majority of the core of the team has spent time on the DL this season (Ryan, Rolen, Marcum, McGowan, Wells, Zaun, and Hill).
King Ryan - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#189967) #
I don't think we're in the middle ground,'' Ricciardi said. "I think we're in it. When you look up and you're under eight...within striking distance of the wild-card and there's still two months to play, I don't we ever thought about us as 'Hey we're going to be sellers.' We've taken on the thought process that if we continue to add without taking anything away from us going forward, that we would try to do that.''

You have got to be kidding me.   I mean you HAVE to be joking.  The Jays have a 2% chance of making the playoffs.  That is a fact; I mean that is based on facts.  When your chances of making the playoffs are that low, you are not within "striking distance."  When you have a team of dinosaurs that has been around .500 ALL YEAR, playing in a division where 95 wins might not do it, you are not "within striking distance."  Holy hell.  My God, this is just ridiculous. 

Is JP Ricciardi not capable of basic math?  The Jays could go 40-14 the rest of the way and still miss the playoffs.    And they are not going 40-14 the rest of the way. 

I mean there is steam coming out of my ears.
RhyZa - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#189968) #
"We've taken on the thought process that if we continue to add without taking anything away from us going forward, that we would try to do that.''

King Ryan, why get so bent out of shape over a comment like that?  Seems logical. What's there to sell really, given the makeup of our ball club?  (excluding AJ, given the bear market for starters)
Gerry - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#189969) #

The GM's job might be on the line at the end of the season, an 85 win season might be a big difference versus a 75 win season.   Throwing in the towel might help the franchise long term but might not help the GM in the short term.

I am just glad we kept all our young players.

Mike Forbes - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#189970) #
Up until now, I wasn't sure if I should trust J.P. or not. Now, I know that I absolutely do not. I can only pray the Blue Jays don't become the Maple Leafs, throwing out mediocre teams every year.
King Ryan - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#189971) #
It's not what he said, exactly, it's what he is IMPLYING with what he said.  The implication is that he was/is looking to add as long as the price is right.  That is a RIDICULOUS mentality for the GM of a team that is in the position the Jays are in.

There is NOBODY the Jays could add that would make them contenders.  They could sign Bonds, trade for Albert Pujols and Johan Santana and they still wouldn't make the playoffs.   I just can't believe that JP does not see this.  It's so frustrating.  The Jays are not in the NL West. 
timpinder - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#189972) #

I'm very glad that the Jays didn't make any moves.  Most of the players that they would or could move are having poor years and the Jays would be selling low.  Trading prospects or young players such as Lind, Snider, or Purcey would be the wrong thing to do in my opinion, since the Jays aren't in contention.

Manny Ramirez a free agent after this year, eh?  Would I ever love to see the Jays spend the $20+ million available from the departure of Thomas and Burnett on Ramirez to DH!  He probably likes seeing himself on TV too much to want to come to Toronto, though.   

robertdudek - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#189973) #
If you can get Raul Ibanez for a couple of spare parts, why not do it. No downside as far as I'm concerned.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#189974) #
The Jays are a .500 team decimated by injuries (McGowan, Wells, Hill, Janssen, Rolen) with a terrible offense. The back of the rotation is being manned by Purcey, Parrish and/or Richmond. They're 6.5 games back in the wild card race with five teams to pass, three of which are 11+ games over .500. And two of those teams, Boston and New York, just added Bay (while subtracting Ramirez), Rodriguez, Marte and Nady.

Yup, clearly still in it.
AWeb - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#189975) #
If the Jays are still in it, so are the Atlanta Braves. Except they, not being utterly deluded about their team, decided to unload a top player and try again later. I hope Atlanta fans appreciate the way that team is run...if a team 7-8 games back has a shot this time of year, they have about the same chance if they get rid of players and hope to catch a few youngsters on hot streaks. Nothing on the team suggests an actual talent level capable of playing .700 ball for two months.

Once again, Ricciardi manages to neither s---, nor get off the pot. No, he's once again managed an unhealthy dose of constipation, and sits still on his throne, straining away, not changing his diet, convincing himself it'll happen if he waits long enough (a crude metaphor not meant to take a shot at the players, just the management). 
wdc - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#189976) #
Maybe it is time to rename this blog the "lynch JP" blog.  I don't know whether he should be fired or not because I just don't have a lot of information.  I do know some things.
McGowan's getting injured was not JP's fault
Marcum getting injured was not JP's fault
Rios falling off terribly in both power and in clutch hitting was not JP's fault
Wells, arguably the best player on the team and looking good this year, getting injured twice this year was not JP's fault
Rolen's sore shoulder is not JP's fault.  Most on the Box thought that this was a good trade, given how Glaus looked last year both at the plate and in the field.
Hill's getting a concussion was not JP's fault
The disappointing hitting by our first baseman was not JP's fault.  He had some hope that he might return to form this season.
I could go on . . .

I guess when I look at someone who comes into a new position for the first time like JP did as a general manager, I assume that there will be some learning on the job.  In addition, if there had been problems with the person doing the job before as many thought about the Gord Ash regime, it would take time to correct them.  So I ask myself: is he a better GM today than he was four years ago?  I think so.  In reading this blog, quite a few persons have noted some good moves.  He seems to be making more good moves now than bad ones.  Again in reading this blog, I gather that his draft picks have improved.  I think that he is getting better. I get quite excited when I read the minor league reports every day.

Finally, I think learning the job is different today from even ten years ago.  With the internet and the sharing of information, there is much more daily pressure on a GM than in the past, much more informed second-guessing.  Pat Gillick did not need to work in a fish bowl back in the 1980s and early 1990s like a GM does today.  So there is a whole public dimension of being a GM quite different than there was before and the GM has to be present in the media and accountable in ways unknown prior to the internet age.  Working in that kind of fish bowl also takes time to learn.  He comes on the radio and anwers questions every week.  GMs would never even have to consider doing that in the past.

As fans, of course, we have a right to our opinions and we can second guess what the GM does or the Manager does.  It is part of our right as a fan.  But sometimes we need to step back a little bit and realize that being a GM is a complex job, with a whole series of things that we don't know about.  So we need to ask is he doing a poorer job now than when he started? The answer to this question is not as evident to me as it seems to others on this blog.

King Ryan - Thursday, July 31 2008 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#189977) #
A simple fact that seems to elude the delusional is that it matters greatly how many teams are ahead of you in the race.  Why?  Because the other teams are not standing still.  It isn't as if all the other teams in the league are done and only the Jays have games left to play; all of those other teams are going to be playing games too, and the more teams that are ahead of you, the greater the chances are of ONE (and one is all you need) of those teams having a better record than you down the stretch.  

If you only have one team ahead of you, then hope is not lost even if you are 10 back.  You could win 10 in a row, and the team ahead of you can go 2-8, and suddenly you're right there.  But if you have 5 teams ahead of you, well, what are the odds of all 5 teams going 2-8 during your ten game winning streak?  Chances are, at least one of those teams will go 8-2 while you go 10-0, which means that even during your hottest streak you only gained 2 games.   

It is the same as a race.  Being 2 seconds back during a race might not mean you're toast, but if you're 2 seconds back AND you have 5 guys ahead of you then forget it, because while one guy might fall down, not all 5 of them are going to.  Even if you turn on the jets, probably 3 of the guys ahead of you are going to do the same, and maybe one of the guys behind you too!

I don't think I need to explain this to many people.  Indeed, I would assume that most of the readers on this intelligent website understand this fact.  What is frustrating to me is that the General Manager of the Blue Jays, JP Ricciardi, the man in charge of running a multi-million-dollar corporation, is giving quotes to the media that seem to indicate he does not understand this.  Either he doesn't understand it, or he is lying.

Either JP thinks we are stupid, or he himself is.

robertdudek - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#189978) #
So we need to ask is he doing a poorer job now than when he started? The answer to this question is not as evident to me as it seems to others on this blog.

What we need to ask (well not us, but ownership - anyways, humour me) is whether Ricciardi is capable of doing a better job than someone else who is willing to take the job.

There has been some implication that acquiring Ibanez meant that Ricciardi thinks his team is still in contention. I don't think there is a logical connection between these two propositions.

And of course Ricciardi is unlikely to come out and admit that the Jays are toast - a great deal of his job is public relations. Whatever he says in public, a good deal of the rest of the season will be spent looking at various players in various roles. If Ricciardi really thought they were in the race, he would have traded prospects to upgrade the offence. That didn't happen. As far as trading veteran players, other than Burnett, who has any sort of trade value? Zaun? Very little, Eckstein, maybe some, maybe a grade C prospect. I think it would be stupid to just give these players away, so I'm happier that they are still here rather than traded for nothing. The McGowan situation and Burnett's recent form leads towards the notion that Burnett might be an important piece of the puzzle for next season. It's possible the Jays think they can convince him to stay. Without Burnett, the starting rotation goes from a probable strength for 2009 to a serious question mark.

Let me state clearly that I never thought the 2008 Jays were serious contenders, and if you survey some of the comments I made in March and April you will be able to confirm this. I had my run-ins with various Pollyannaish observers on this point at the time. This team really isn't a disappointment to me in the sense that I thought they were an 85 win team and their performance has been in line with that assumption.




brent - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#189982) #

First of all, it is always a good time to buy or sell. Whenever there is a great deal on the table, you have to take it. There was no market for any of the Jays' players (there was no interest in Dunn either). I had really wanted to see some movement on the club, but it takes a partner to make a deal. Toronto players aren't as hyped or as coveted as most markets' players are. Public perception of trades would make it difficult for some other GM's to deal for practically unknown players. The only way players we wanted to move (like Zaun or Eckstein), would be if the Jays release them. That option doesn't make any sense yet. When the rosters expand, we better be giving lots of time to the young players to see what will happen.

In looking back at the deals, it seems like Milwaukee overpaid for Sabathia. Pittsburgh took back a poor package for Bay (also Nady and the reliever). Seattle wouldn't give up its players despite being obvious sellers because the market just wasn't there this year. Oakland it appears took an inferior package for Harden. Would Bauxites be pleased with taking an inferior deal for our players? I think probably not. I hope AJ still opts out of his contract this year to get the draft picks. The real question is how to realistically fix the offense.

Finally, does anyone have JP's trading history? Someone should send it into MLB trade rumors.com to have it listed in the GM track record section. Someone should do it as a service for all baseball fans to be able to see.

China fan - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 01:40 AM EDT (#189983) #
I totally agree with Robert Dudek on this one.  Ricciardi is only saying what he is required to say by the rules of public relations.  If he admitted that the team has a 98 per cent chance of missing the playoffs, why would anyone bother to buy tickets for the remaining two months of the season?  It's delusional to expect a GM to admit his real strategy when he talks to the media.  Why do we assume that he wasn't doing what we want him to do?  Maybe he would have sold some declining veterans for good prospects if he could have found the right deal.  And nobody is a pure "buyer" or pure "seller" anyway.  Nothing wrong with him acquiring a veteran who could help the team immediately if the price is reasonable.  Not every prospect has to be hoarded forever.  If a couple of C prospects can be traded for a useful DH in the near term, why not consider it?  When a team like Seattle is considering dumping players, why not explore whether you can acquire a useful player from them?
TamRa - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 03:28 AM EDT (#189985) #
Let me state clearly that I never thought the 2008 Jays were serious contenders, and if you survey some of the comments I made in March and April you will be able to confirm this. I had my run-ins with various Pollyannaish observers on this point at the time. This team really isn't a disappointment to me in the sense that I thought they were an 85 win team and their performance has been in line with that assumption.

I'm curious about this. Not to go off an a "yeah but" exchange but...

What part of what happened this year to the offense did you forsee? I can get that you thought Stairs would slow, but you thought Rolen would continue to have issue AND you thought Vernon would get hurt not onece but twice AND you thought Rios' power would suddenly disappear AND you thought Hill would be hitting like Scutero (to say nothing of missing 2/3 of the season AND you thought Thomas wouldn't make it to june as a blue Jay (or would hit so bad all year he might as well not have been here)?

The record we have now is, it seems to me, the result of quite a few things which were not at all forseeable. Even if I give you Stairs and Rolen, a HUGE part of where we are is Rios and Hill and the lack of Thomas...how could anyone have thought those three would have been  even what they were in 2007 and we would be at .500 2/3 of the way in?


parrot11 - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 07:04 AM EDT (#189986) #
"What part of what happened this year to the offense did you forsee?"

Far be it for me to answer this for Dudek, but PECOTA was pretty accurate with the Jays offensive "under-performance". The only player that vastly under-performed compared to their projections were Rios and Hill. I don't count Thomas as a disappointment because you get what you paid for. When he signed, people raised the concerns of Thomas being a slow starter and JP dismissed that by saying that the numbers at the end of the season are all that matters. Below are the real stats vs the PECOTA projection.

Overbay: .275/.379/.787 vs .269/.348/.782
Wells: .287/.329/.777 vs .284/.338/.829
Rolen: .254/.349/.749 vs .274/.365/.831
Rios: .279/.326/.748 vs .299/.352/.825
Zaun: .245/.352/.727 vs .259/.354/.764
Hill: .263/.324/.685 vs .284/.334/.749
Eckstein: .271/.357/.708 vs .297/.351/.714
Scutaro: .256/.341/.672 vs .260/.339/.699

Personally, I agreed with most of the projections except for Rolen who I thought that his injured shoulder would make him more of a .750-.800 OPS hitter.

On the flip side, I could point to a whole bunch of pitchers who have performed better than expected (except notably AJ and McGowan). So to me this all balances out. As for the injuries, those things happen to many teams. The Jays haven't faced anything worse than the Yankees or Angels so I don't really buy this injury excuse. They were a mediocre team with everyone healthy.
Dave Till - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 07:21 AM EDT (#189987) #
parrot11: It's interesting to note that BP's PECOTA projections more or less match the Jays' actual numbers.

What PECOTA didn't predict was that Rolen would miss a month with a freak injury, Wells would get hurt twice, and Hill would bong his coconut. The Jays' offense in 2008 would not have been great if all these guys had stayed healthy all year, but having a whole season of Wells is better than having to run Mench and Wilkerson out there all the time.

China fan - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#189990) #
Those PECOTA numbers show quite clearly that 5 players -- most of them very key players -- are performing at significantly below their projected levels.   Hill, Rios, Rolen and Wells are very important players on this team, and all of them have done worse than expected this year.  Zaun's under-performance, too, is a problem, because he's still playing a fair number of games.  (You can argue that all of them are not doing "vastly" worse than expected, but most of them are clearly doing worse than PECOTA -- at least 50 to 80 points worse on OPS -- and that's a big problem when you accumulate all of those 50 to 80 point differences over the whole lineup.)  And then, when you add all the injuries to the worse-than-expected performances, I think it's fair to say that Ricciardi has indeed been victimized by some bad luck this year.  Where I would fault Ricciardi is in failing to develop enough offensive depth in the minors over the past few seasons.  Aside from Lind and Inglett, he had absolutely nobody ready to step into the breach when the injuries hit and the mediocre performances accumulated.
China fan - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#189991) #
By the way, the DH position (first Thomas and then Stairs) has also significantly under-performed what most people would have reasonably expected from them this season.  So that's 6 of the 9 positions in the lineup that have done worse than most people expected.   Now, I know a lot of people will leap in with their own recollections of how they didn't expect much from Rolen or Stairs or whatever, but there was no pre-season consensus that those 6 positions would all be positions of weakness for the Jays this year.
greenfrog - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#189992) #
"Ricciardi is only saying what he is required to say by the rules of public relations."

I wonder about this. I think JP tends to get muddled sometimes. I'm not sure *he's* clear about whether the Jays are contenders or not (and, as a consequence, whether to rebuild or not).

At this point, it's trite to say that the front office lacks a clear strategy, but I really think this is the main problem. Most observers could see that everything had to break right for the Jays to contend this year, and that this was possible, but unlikely. My impression is that JP never fully realized this (I could be way off base, of course). I think he had a skewed view of the team from the beginning. So it's not surprising that he's still looking at the team as a possible contender this year and next.

Mike Wilner tends to laud JP for his honesty, but honesty is not the same thing as clear vision. Anyone can say what they think or feel in any given moment - JP does this all the time - but to me, this is a pretty ordinary tendency. It takes a lot more to understand the big picture, develop a strategy in accordance with that vision, and, secondarily, to speak intelligently (and honestly) about that strategy in the media.
Chuck - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#189993) #
Zaun's under-performance, too, is a problem

Zaun's OPS+ is 95, above average for a catcher. In fact, since his OPS is OBP-heavy, his OPS+ understates his offense.
Jevant - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#189994) #
I've been hearing it was Litsch and League for Ibanez (and the Mariners backed out).  If that indeed was the deal, I don't think anyone could say that wouldn't have been a good one for us.

League is obviously on his way out of the organization.  The team has lost faith with him.  Litsch has always struck me as "Josh Towers 2", and I think he'll be (at best) a AAAA or 5th starter.  To get Ibanez (who, as has already been pointed out, would be our 2nd best hitter behind Lind) PLUS the 2 draft picks would seem like a steal for JP.

I agree - the team is not making the playoffs, but the GM and coach can't simply come out and say "Yup, we suck, we're not going to make the playoffs, we're giving up."  It seems clear to me that no deal were really there, but JP went and tried to make one that would help the team this year and in the future.  I'm not on the JP bandwagon anymore anyways, but I give him credit for this one.

Rich - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#189997) #
Where I would fault Ricciardi is in failing to develop enough offensive depth in the minors over the past few seasons.  Aside from Lind and Inglett, he had absolutely nobody ready to step into the breach when the injuries hit and the mediocre performances accumulated.

I agree 100%.  I said back in the spring (cannot be bothered to go back and find the thread) that a good GM does more than hope and pray that everyone plays to their potential and avoids getting hurt.  JP has been the GM since 2001 and Lind is virtually the only hitter in the top two levels of the minors who is able to help the offence this season.  Unless you have a huge payroll or all the luck in the world, that won't get it done.
Ryan Day - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#189998) #
Where I would fault Ricciardi is in failing to develop enough offensive depth in the minors over the past few seasons.  Aside from Lind and Inglett, he had absolutely nobody ready to step into the breach when the injuries hit and the mediocre performances accumulated.

Who does? How many teams can replace their second baseman, third baseman, centre fielder, DH, and third starter for extended periods? Just look at Cleveland - a year ago they were great, a team on the rise... this year they had a bunch of injuries and slumps, and of course they can't cover it. Unless you're the Yankees or Red Sox, most teams can't handle more than one or two key injuries.

Ricciardi actually did a pretty decent job with the depth this year - Scutaro's been more valuable than anyone expected, Inglett's performed well (after BP suggested it was absurd to have him on the roster over Jamie Vermilyea), and Lind was a great, if late, addition.
robertdudek - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#189999) #
Unless you're the Yankees or Red Sox, most teams can't handle more than one or two key injuries.

I would add the Angels - who coincidentally have had more injuries to key players (Figgins, Kendrick, Napoli, Lackey, Escobar) this year than the Jays. And the great wisdom of your statement is this: only the true solid contending teams can overcome injuries to key players and still contend. It is clear that the Jays were not and are not among them. The Indians' injuries were probably more serious than the Jays' (Carmona, Westbrook, Hafner, Martinez) - not to mention the gross underperformance of Garko, Gutierrez and Cabrera. If they had chosen to keep Sabathia and Blake they'd probably still be on the perifery of the race, just as the Jays are right now.
robertdudek - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#190000) #
Those PECOTA numbers show quite clearly that 5 players -- most of them very key players -- are performing at significantly below their projected levels. 

Don't forget that offense is down across the board (4.68 RPG this year versus 4.90 RPG in 2007). I expected the Jays offense to be in the bottom third of the league and the pitching/defense to be in the top third. The offense has done a little worse and the p/d a little better than expected.
Rich - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#190001) #
Unless you're the Yankees or Red Sox, most teams can't handle more than one or two key injuries.

That's kind of my point - if you don't have the payroll of the Yanks or Sox you had better draft well so you can dip into AA or AAA when the inevitable injuries occur.  JP's early drafts failed to bring enough hitting talent to help out much. 
Jevant - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#190002) #
This is probably because JP's drafts (at least the early ones) focused on getting players that were (theoretically) safer bets to make the majors sooner, but with much lower upside.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#190005) #
I figure that when Ricciardi said that Burnett was off the table whereas Zaun et. al were not, that wasn't public relations, but rather an honest expression of his view that the team ought to try to compete in 2009, and that bringing back Burnett was now in the cards.  There was no mention at all of B.J. Ryan.

Toronto is not a much lesser team than Tampa is in 2008.  They are however likely to be so in 2009, and the chance of Toronto competing seriously seems to me to be much less in 2009 than it was in 2007-08. 



timpinder - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#190015) #

I wouldn't have said it two months ago, but I hope that retaining Burnett is indeed in the cards.  Janssen and McGowan are question marks because of their surgeries, Litsch might be Chacin incarnate, Purcey and Cecil are unknown quantities, and Marcum hasn't looked good since returning from the DL and faded quickly late in the season last year too.  The pitching depth the Jays had last winter looks to have all but disappeared.

I still remain optimistic for 2009, though.  If I were GM, I'd target Furcal and go after him hard, because a lead-off switch-hitting SS would help the Jays tremendously.  I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Rios to improve and of course Hill and Wells to come back from their injuries.  The Jays will have Lind for the entire season and Snider and Arencibia (44 homeruns between the two of them in the minors so far) may be ready to help out before the end of the year.  Ramirez or Tex are very unlikely, especially because they're represented by Boras, but perhaps Delgado could be convinced to come back to Toronto to DH on a 1-year deal with an option.

The bullpen is there, and if the starters are healthy the Jays will have a good rotation.  Good health and a return to career norms for most of their hitters and the Jays would be in contention.  And of course, some good luck, as the Jays have about the same run differential as the Rays, yet the Rays are leading in the AL East and the Jays are 4th. 

greenfrog - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#190021) #
"I still remain optimistic for 2009, though."

I have to say I disagree. Here's why:

- Burnett is almost certainly gone after 2008. Every year teams (and their fans) go through the same drama with impending Type A free agents: the team expresses continued interest, the player says he likes his current city and teammates, the fans clamour to keep him. Usually the player leaves. AJ is having a good year overall, but his next contract is going to be for a lot of money and years--probably too much, if you consider the injury risks, his career numbers, and that he's probably past his prime. On the plus side, this often turns out well for the team that lets him go (Catalanotto and Speier are two recent examples)

- Furcal is exactly the kind of player the Jays should not be pursuing. His career numbers are only OK (764 OPS, with a 688 OPS in 2007, his last full season), he's 30, and has had only 134 ABs this year because of injuries--which seem unlikely to be improved by playing on fieldturf. Do we really want another Scott Rolen on the left side of the infield?

- Whether or not Rios and Wells have healthy and productive seasons in 2009, our infield presents some huge question marks, with no easy solutions forthcoming. The team has a big financial commitment to a third-baseman with an ongoing shoulder problem that has severely limited his hitting ability. They don't have a bona fide shortstop (in the majors or the high minors). At this point, Hill is a total unknown for '09. He could be fine, unable to play, or somewhere in between. Finally, Overbay has shown that he can still get on base, but his power (408 slugging %) seems to have permanently fallen off.

- Beyond Halladay, the rotation is a big question mark. Assuming AJ departs, we would need four candidates from the following list: McGowan, Marcum, Purcey, Litsch, Cecil, Parrish, and Janssen. The problem is that each of these players either lacks experience or presents a fairly significant injury risk. (The safest bet is probably Marcum, but even he has had knee, back and elbow injuries in the last couple of years.)

- Arencibia and Snider are good prospects, but they probably need another year in the minors. Even if they play in Toronto in '09, it's reasonable to expect that they'll take a while to adjust to the big leagues (as Lind did). I don't think it's fair to expect them to play a major role in the team's contending next year

All in all, I think the team is in a fix. I think chasing players like Furcal is what has landed teams like Baltimore in its quagmire of recent years. You can't build around 30-something versions of Furcal and AJ when the competition is building around next-generation players like Longoria, Kazmir, Chamberlain and Lester. Better to give up the short-term dream, IMO, build on your good young players and prospects, and start thinking about a new approach.
timpinder - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#190030) #

building around next-generation players like Longoria, Kazmir, Chamberlain and Lester.

There's the biggest problem with the Jays.  They won't draft out of slot to get players like Chamberlain, and the only way you get players like Longoria is if you finish near the bottom of the league.  It's no wonder the Rays are finally good, they've been getting the first pick every year for the last decade!  I'm not opposed to rebuilding, but if they did it now they'd be selling very low, and they're not going to get a franchise prospect trading Rolen, especially now.  I think they're a better team than their record shows, and with some luck and good health I still think they can be in the mix next year.

ComebyDeanChance - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#190040) #
That doesn't apply to the Jays at all. The Jays chose to ignore both Kazmir and Lester, as well as a host of other talented hs and prep players (Hamels, Cain, McCann) simply on a dogmatic 'draft college player only basis' in 02. It had nothing to do with slot, signability or colour - only whether they were or were not college players. Some on here have even argued that they did better than if they'd drafted Jon Lester by drafting Adams, Bush, Maureau, Pleiness etc along with associated other junk, because they dealt Bush, a wasted supplemental pick in another draft (Jackson) and Gross, for none other that Lyle Overbay, and Peterson eventually for Jeremy Accardo. I think the view that Overbay at 7 per, and Accardo, are anywhere near Lester would be ridiculed anywhere else, but here that take apparently still has some traction.
greenfrog - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#190041) #
Man, Ryan looks hittable these days. Even before the bottom of the ninth, I thought: I would rather see Downs close this one out.

To be fair to JP, his recent drafts look a lot more promising. Some good high school prospects (Snider, Jackson, Ahrens) and college players (Lind, Cooper, Cecil, Arencibia). Too bad it took a few years to figure out that "stocking the system with college arms" wasn't the brightest approach to building a winning team.

I still think we need a new GM, though.
Ryan Day - Saturday, August 02 2008 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#190042) #
They won't draft out of slot to get players like Chamberlain

They didn't pass on Chamberlain because he was expensive. They passed on him because they drafted Travis Snider. I can't think of any college players Ricciardi passed on because of signability reasons.
ayjackson - Saturday, August 02 2008 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#190045) #

To be fair to JP, his recent drafts look a lot more promising. Some good high school prospects (Snider, Jackson, Ahrens) and college players (Lind, Cooper, Cecil, Arencibia). Too bad it took a few years to figure out that "stocking the system with college arms" wasn't the brightest approach to building a winning team.

I still think we need a new GM, though

I agree.  I think the scouting and development part of the organization is improving every year.  JP has led this and deserves as much credit for it as he does grief for the early strategy.  He has gotten very stale though and has horrible PR skills.  In light of the old is new thing, I'd like to see Beeston or Ash as President and Lacava as GM.

Frank Markotich - Saturday, August 02 2008 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#190052) #
God save us from Gord Ash in any kind of decision-making position here.
31 July 08 | 137 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.