Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Trade Winds Start to Blow

To nobody's surprise, the Yankees fired the first real salvo in the deadline-driven dealings, acquiring Xavier Nady AND Damaso Marte from the Pirates for four minor leaguers, none of whom is named Hughes or Kennedy.

Whatchathink, Bauxites? And are you hearing anything else? (As always, provide verified links with your reports, please!)

Posted by Mick Doherty on Friday, July 25 2008 @ 08:56 PM EDT.

Trade Winds Start to Blow | 21 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Thomas - Friday, July 25 2008 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#189477) #

Good deal for the Yanks. They grab two pieces that will help them (Nady's going to give them better production than what they're getting in the outfield even if he returns to his previous production levels) and only surrender one real prospect in Tabata. And Tabata's seen his stock drop considerably this year with two suspensions for behavioural problems and a reported lack of interest in conditioning. Ohlendorf isn't anything special and I've not heard much about either of the Double-A arms.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh continues to make deals in the Cam Bonifay and Dave Littlefield tradition.

Chuck - Friday, July 25 2008 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#189478) #

I agree with Thomas, both on the utility of this trade for the Yankees and the Pirateness of it all.

Because of the absence of stars involved, little will probably be made of this deal. But given that Nady and Marte are replacing replacement-level players, they both represent huge upgrades. And don't be surprised if Nady takes over in RF next season.

Helpmates - Friday, July 25 2008 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#189479) #

The Pirates are one of the most-if not the most-aggressively stupid organizations in baseball. From their dunderheaded draft choices throughout this decade, to their asinine trades; utterly hopeless. I think the "topper" for me was when the Pirates team president apparently stated that drafting Daniel Moskos over Matt Wieters last year was a "baseball" decision, as opposed to a financial one.

If I were a Pirates fan, I'd get a posse together and head over to PNC Park with pitchforks and torches...

Mike Green - Friday, July 25 2008 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#189480) #

Moskos over Wieters was understandable from a financial perspective. Moskos over Heyward was just strange.

Ron - Friday, July 25 2008 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#189483) #

Moskos over Wieters was understandable from a financial perspective.

Moskos over Wieters was completely not understandable from a financial perspective. The Pirates are a small market team and one of the areas they can make up ground on the larger payroll teams is too draft well. Signing bonuses in the draft are extremely small compared to signing top tier free agents. The difference in salary between an all-star catcher and a back of the end rotation starter/middle reliever is huge. For example a Posada type player is going to cost a lot more than a John Parrish/Josh Towers type of player. Now of course both players are still early into their professional careers, but at this point any person with a brain will have to say Wieters is looking like a stud while Moskos is looking like a dud. But hey the Pirates were able to sign Moskos for only 2.5 million and Wieters signed for 6 million so they saved 3.5 million.......

A decision like this just makes me shake my head in disgust. And I'm not even a Pirates fan.

As for the Yankees/Pirates trade, no Horne, Hughes, Kennedy, Montero, or Jackson going the other way? Colour me impressed. Tabata is still one of the youngest players in AA but he has shown nothing this season. It's just a flat out horrible trade for the Pirates and I'm surprised they couldn't do better with another club. It's a trade like this that reminds you why the Pirates are a complete joke. I thought with Neil Huntington in town, these kinds of terrible moves would come to an end.

greenfrog - Friday, July 25 2008 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#189484) #

Awful trade from a Jays' perspective. The Yankees significantly improve their already-hot team, and hold on to their best prospects. Cashman deserves credit for this one.

brent - Friday, July 25 2008 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#189485) #

Maybe there really is no reasonable market for AJ as of yet. I guess JP will hold on until the last hour hoping to get something good or just hope Burnett doesn't seriously injure himself.

jgadfly - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 01:51 AM EDT (#189486) #

Maybe there really is no reasonable market for AJ as of yet ... why add the last 3 words ? Even if AJ maintains his "A" status and signs with hometown Baltimore then the Jays or whoever trades for him would still not move up the selection ladder. They would gain a selection after the first round of bidding plus the Orioles second round bid ... however if the Orioles go after another hometown boy named Teixeira and sign him as while then because he has more "A" status value than AJ the Jays would then be selecting after the Braves in the supplemental round and their next selection I believe would not be Baltimore's 2nd round bid but their 3rd round selection... not exactly prime prospects. ... or if he gets injured and loses his "A' status you're still looking at a $12M x2 contract and you hope he signs with anybody ... at least thats how I understand it to be and that's predicated on Baltimore finishing in the bottom half of teams which isn't necessarily a given and I don't have the foggiest idea where the Jays would select if the Orioles were in the top half... FWIW

metafour - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 02:27 AM EDT (#189487) #

AJ is going to go to the biggest bidder as is Teixeira...the thought of Baltimore getting even one of these guys is pretty funny, let alone them signing two. That seems like an awfully negative and unrealistic way of looking at it.

seeyou - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 03:32 AM EDT (#189489) #

Even if AJ maintains his "A" status

I was curious about this so I looked up the Elias Rankings, and A.J. was ranked a B last year (albeit a fairly high B).

I've always found the Elias Rankings kind of cryptic, but I know that it's based on a two-year average, so generally for A.J. to move up to an A he would need to have his 2008 stats > his 2006 stats (with 2007 being the constant in the calculations).

Bad news is his ERA and WHIP are both higher than in 2006. Good news is he's already bested all the major 2006 counting stats (IP, W, K), so if the Elias formula give a higher weight to those he's probably got a good shot at making it up to A.

Just browsing last year's list, it would seem that the trades of the past year should be helping to boost A.J.'s status above the 20% threshold, as the rankings are comparative and league-based. Pitchers who were A-ranked last year for the AL that have moved to the NL include Santana, Sabathia, Haren and Blanton. No NL "A"s from last year moved to the AL.

Does anybody have a more precise idea of exactly what stats Elias takes into consideration when making their rankings? Whether or not A.J. will actually move up to an A would seemingly have a significant impact on his trade value.

seeyou - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 03:34 AM EDT (#189490) #

Apologies, something went screwy with the link to the rankings.

Here it is again:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/2007-10-31-elias-rankings-complete_N.htm

Alex Obal - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 03:47 AM EDT (#189491) #

I don't think the Pirates did badly at all here. Especially by Pirate standards.

Way too early to write off Tabata, who controls the strike zone fairly well against AA pitchers at age 19, and I think Ohlendorf will do just fine in the NL. Don't overlook the 23-year-old George Kontos, who's supposed to have considerable upside himself, with a very hard two-seam fastball but questionable control. It's a buyer's market for relief pitchers (Emilio Bonifacio?!) so I think Marte's market value has become somewhat overrated. And in the 21st century, I get the impression most GMs view career year-type seasons like Nady's with a healthy dose of skepticism. What were the Pirates supposed to get for Nady? They didn't have much leverage. Holding onto him would be, at least arguably, the most Piratey strategy of all.

Chuck, if the Yankees seriously let Abreu walk and go into 2009 with Nady as their everyday rightfielder and no obvious backup plan other than Jackson and Brett Gardner, I'll be pretty surprised. That strikes me as a really un-Yankee move. I guess they figure they really only need someone to hold down the fort for one more year before Jackson arrives, but Nady's numbers scream all kinds of nasty two-word phrases like 'career year' and 'exchange rate' and 'strikes out' and 'he's a righty so what exactly is going to happen to his okay power numbers in Yankee Stadium?' which is admittedly 18 words. I'd be more inclined to expect them to use their more traditional strategy of signing lots of overpaid guys and then worrying about the excess created when prospects force their hand, but maybe times have changed...

Marte is solid. Who knows how he'll handle the spotlight and the AL hitters, but I guess this deal makes enough short-term sense for the pinstripers, given the lack of lefty talent in their bullpen. But I really don't think the Pirates got ripped off. A second-half forecast of anything more than .275/.330/.450 for Nady strikes me as optimistic.

Thomas - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#189492) #

Holding onto him would be, at least arguably, the most Piratey strategy of all.

Isn't Marte a Type-A free agent at the end of this year, though? If that's the case, holding on to him may have been the smartest strategy (not that I have much faith in the Pirates drafting). I agree Kontos has some back-end potential, but Coke is a LOOGY at best and Ohlendorf is a fungible 5th starter/MR type. I know Nady's going to fall back to earth a bit and I didn't expect the Yankees to get Hughes, but those 3 and a troubled prospect in Tabata isn't a good return for Marte and another 1.5 years of Nady, IMO.

Tabata controlled the strike zone well as a youngster, but he's hit for no power for the last couple of seasons, either before or after his injuries. He could easily be a case of a young player with advanced strike zone judgement who was able to succeed in the lower levels primarily because of that skill. For Tabata to suceed you need his power to develop and the positive signs in that direction are that he's apparently toolsy and he's been young for the levels he's played at. However, Tabata's also suffered several injuries, is reportedly not in shape and has behaviour/attitude problems. To me, those are more red flags than green flags. Tabata's not a useless prospect, but as the centerpiece to a trade for Marte and Nady there are far too many questions.

brent - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#189493) #

I added "as of yet" because JP said that he hadn't received any significant offers for AJ. However, it only takes one desperate team to make an offer JP can't refuse at the deadline. I think a lot of teams could use AJ for the stretch run, so we will just need to wait and see how other teams evaluate him.

Chuck - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#189494) #

Chuck, if the Yankees seriously let Abreu walk and go into 2009 with Nady as their everyday rightfielder and no obvious backup plan other than Jackson and Brett Gardner, I'll be pretty surprised

I agree with you. I wasn't forecasting Nady as the Yankees' RF with any amount of presumed glee on their part. I'm sure they know what they are getting (and it ain't a 900-OPS guy). My hunch is that they will let Abreu move on at the end of the season. While the calculus works differently for the Yankees than everyone else, it's not clear that Abreu provides a suitable return on the dollar (especially considering his defense, where he appears to be a right fielder in name only). Given that the Yankees will have to spend the off-season busily addressing problems on several fronts, having a relatively inexpensive Nady take over RF as a one-year solution should give them one less thing to worry about.

Or they could decide to resign Abreu and keep Nady around just for general insurance and maybe a bit of platooning. I may be spending the Steinbrenners' money far too conservatively.

Alex Obal - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#189495) #

Yeah, the Pirates could've reasonably kept Marte. I was referring to Nady there - if you're not selling him in a year when he's hitting 50 points above his career average, he's a free agent after next year and your chances of making the playoffs this year are roughly zero, what are you doing?

If Marte is seriously going to be a type A, that does make the deal look very good for the Yankees. I was unaware. Still, the Pirates might have decided that for perfectly sane reasons they think Ohlendorf and Kontos versus the two comp picks is a wash (which presumably saves them money in the last two months of Marte's contract as well). Right now, their rotation includes two of John Van Benschoten and Yoslan Herrera and Phil Dumatrait, so they need all the pitching they can get, and fast. And they might prefer the supposed high upside of Tabata to 1.5 years of Nady playing for a non-contender plus any picks he fetches. I think it's unreasonable not to expect at least some physical and emotional growth in Nady in the next few years. Giving him a fresh start with a new organization can't hurt.

For what it's worth, Tabata had a hamate injury last year and underwent surgery to remove the bone. Before this season, that was cited as the reason for his missing power. Obviously, no such excuse this year, but it's one consideration I wasn't aware of 10 minutes ago...

Alex Obal - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#189496) #

Chuck - yeah, I kind of figured as much. If Nady's starting in right for the Yankees every day, that is fine by me.

Or they could decide to resign Abreu and keep Nady around just for general insurance and maybe a bit of platooning. I may be spending the Steinbrenners' money far too conservatively.

Hey, maybe they sign Mark Teixeira and keep Nady around for general insurance. Who knows. Maybe it's in our best interest to root for Nady to hit .350 the rest of the way and compel Hank to order Cashman to order Girardi to start him everyday.

Alex Obal - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#189497) #

I think it's unreasonable not to expect at least some physical and emotional growth in Nady in the next few years.

... I mean Tabata. Or, I mean Nady is going to get really fat and really surly in the near future. One or the other. If it helps you guess, I'm dumb enough to try to defend the machinations of the Pittsburgh Pirates in a public forum.

James W - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#189501) #

I can't remember where I read it, but I did see yesterday that if Marte does turn out to be an A free agent, the chances of anyone signing him are slim, since most teams wouldn't view him as worth the loss of the draft pick. (This may have been from Jayson Stark's column, but the mind is fuzzy this early in the morning.)

92-93 - Saturday, July 26 2008 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#189532) #

Seeyou, the categories Elias uses when evaluating starting pitchers are ERA, W, W-L%, K, and IP. I'll continue to state with confidence that Burnett will be a Type A free agent if he remains healthy over his last 12 starts. And he isn't getting traded, because no team is going to give up more than a Cecil/Arencibia type package, something JP rightfully thinks he deserves for 2 months of Burnett and the compensatory picks.

robertdudek - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#189601) #

And he isn't getting traded, because no team is going to give up more than a Cecil/Arencibia type package, something JP rightfully thinks he deserves for 2 months of Burnett and the compensatory picks.

People make this kind of mistake all the time. Compensatory draft picks are not worth as much as good minor league prospects:

1) Minor league prospects are generally much closer to major league ready, so the uncertainty factor is greatly reduced as compared to a pick in the late 1st, supplemental or 2nd round.

2) You are never going to get a top 15 compensatory pick. A top 100 minor league prospect is generally a better player than a typical 16-70 overall pick (so many of these picks do absolutely nothing in their careers).

3) You have to pay money to sign your high round picks - a lot of money. It is not clear to me that a team that completely forgoes a first round pick and invests this money in Latin America instead is not vastly better off in terms of talent return for the money. Conversely, minor league prospects are already paid for and cost only their annual minor league salary (and whoever you sign with a draft pick has to be paid a salary too).

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