Marcum's Back
His back? What's wrong with his back?
Oh, never mind.
So Wolfe has been sent back down. Why?
Good question. League is definitely not out of options (I checked this with the GM personally earlier this season), but I think Gaston wants to keep League where he can see him. I think he has plans for him, that he thinks he can make something of him. He's a project. And he stepped up and drilled Dioner Navarro. So League stays.
And I believe - I'm not certain - that Frasor is out of options.
Good question. League is definitely not out of options (I checked this with the GM personally earlier this season), but I think Gaston wants to keep League where he can see him. I think he has plans for him, that he thinks he can make something of him. He's a project. And he stepped up and drilled Dioner Navarro. So League stays.
And I believe - I'm not certain - that Frasor is out of options.
A propos of nothing, Hall of Names style I found myself wondering what Wolfe's middle name was, if he was in fact a classic "BMW." Alas, no, his mid-moniker is Thomas -- meaning he is at least a text-messagey abbreviation for "by the way" (BTW) ...
In fact, in the entiretly of big league history, there has only been one BMW (sorry guys named Bill -- your first initial is W for William!) ... Bryan Matthew Ward, a late-1990s LOOGY with the White Sox, mostly.
Like I said, a propos of nothing ...
I was checking on something else, and I noticed that National League pitchers have combined to throw 24 complete games this season. 24? For the whole damn league? We're past the All-Star Break, and they've only now caught up to Bert Blyleven in 1985?
So I did some quick figuring - since the new milennium dawned (in 2000, according to me!), National League pitchers have tossed a combined 745 complete games, in eight and a half seasons. Almost as many as Cy Young threw in his career. All by himself.
It's tempting to say they don't make 'em like they used to! But they never made very many like Cy Young at any time.
So I did some quick figuring - since the new milennium dawned (in 2000, according to me!), National League pitchers have tossed a combined 745 complete games, in eight and a half seasons. Almost as many as Cy Young threw in his career. All by himself.
It's tempting to say they don't make 'em like they used to! But they never made very many like Cy Young at any time.
I think Gaston wants to keep League where he can see him. I think he
has plans for him, that he thinks he can make something of him. He's a
project.
It's hard not to think you can do big things with League, particularly since at times he has been really good.
It's hard not to think you can do big things with League, particularly since at times he has been really good.
I think Gaston wants to keep League where he can see him. I think he
has plans for him, that he thinks he can make something of him. He's a
project.
It's hard not to think you can do big things with League, particularly since at times he has been really good.
I've often wondered about the idea of superior mentoring at the big league level, since to me it seems unfair / dispiriting to a guy like Wolfe (and possibly other organizational soldiers like him) when less deserving types get to stick around due to a higher ceiling.
But Cito seems to be having some real success with some of the young players and if he can turn League into something akin to what we once hoped he'd be, it'd be worth it. Can anyone recall a big-league manager turning things around for a talented prospect who couldn't seem to perform?
It's hard not to think you can do big things with League, particularly since at times he has been really good.
I've often wondered about the idea of superior mentoring at the big league level, since to me it seems unfair / dispiriting to a guy like Wolfe (and possibly other organizational soldiers like him) when less deserving types get to stick around due to a higher ceiling.
But Cito seems to be having some real success with some of the young players and if he can turn League into something akin to what we once hoped he'd be, it'd be worth it. Can anyone recall a big-league manager turning things around for a talented prospect who couldn't seem to perform?
It still doesn't make sense to me. Cita (and Brad Arnsberg for that matter) should have his plate full with major league problems. Underacheiving prospects are what they have minor league coaches for. The jays just hired Mel Queen for 'special projects' so i say here's a good example of one to toss at him. He should not be a distraction to the major league team.
Although gotta say I'm a fan of the Navarro bean ball. its nice to have a big guy with a 98mph fastball who's not a cy young contender when you've got a message to send.
Its nice to have a big guy with a 98mph fastball who's not a cy young contender when you've got a message to send.
By the way, I'm with Joe Maddon on this one if I'm with anyone. Cito is old school indeed, and I like old school, and a five run lead is generally as safe as houses - but Cito wasn't here a year ago when Tampa blew a five run lead with three outs to go. And I'm pretty sure Joe Maddon remembers.
By the way, I'm with Joe Maddon on this one if I'm with anyone. Cito is old school indeed, and I like old school, and a five run lead is generally as safe as houses - but Cito wasn't here a year ago when Tampa blew a five run lead with three outs to go. And I'm pretty sure Joe Maddon remembers.
With no chance of making the playoffs I would rather see League up here than Wolfe. League has major upside and could be a big part of the bullpen next year if he harnesses his pitches. Brian Wolfe is what he is.
If Wolfe is finally going to be given a shot as a starter in AAA then the move makes a lot of sense as the innings available for the 6th and 7th guys are fairly low and League can always be a fun guy to toss in if things are out of hand :)
Seems like Purcey is getting the Friday night call, so I guess they are going to hand him the ball and let him go and worry about it later if McGowan crowds the rotation.
Huh?
Bastain:
Ricciardi and Gaston also noted that lefty John Parrish will get at least one more turn in the rotation. Ricciardi went on to say that Parrish would be evaluated after his next outing and added that the club wants to get David Purcey up for an extended look at some point this season.
Where did you see Purcey was getting Friday's start?
http://mlbastian.mlblogs.com/
Bastain:
Ricciardi and Gaston also noted that lefty John Parrish will get at least one more turn in the rotation. Ricciardi went on to say that Parrish would be evaluated after his next outing and added that the club wants to get David Purcey up for an extended look at some point this season.
Where did you see Purcey was getting Friday's start?
http://mlbastian.mlblogs.com/
Cito is old school indeed, and I like old school, and a five run lead is generally as safe as houses
It's probably time to revise this cliche. I doubt many people in the US use the term 'safe as houses' anymore--especially those in Florida. Give it a year and this cliche will be dead in Canada as well.
Ugh. Cristian Guzman (he of the .687 career OPS) just signed a 2 year extension worth a whopping $16 million.
Doesn't bode too well for the Jays finding an affordable free agent SS in the offseason.
Doesn't bode too well for the Jays finding an affordable free agent SS in the offseason.
Ugh. Cristian Guzman (he of the .687 career OPS) just signed a 2 year extension worth a whopping $16 million.
Doesn't bode too well for the Jays finding an affordable free agent SS in the offseason.
There's reason to think that Christian Guzman's 2008 represents a new talent ability (I don't think he's as good as he was in 2007) and he's not the same hitter he was in 2005 and 2006. I think $8 million a year is too much, but It's not absolutely terrible.
I think the more relevant news for Jays fans was the deal the fact the Nationals traded Jon Rauch for Emilio Bonifacio. Assuming it wasn't just a case of Bowden overvaluing Bonifacio (IMO), then this should a) end any thoughts anyone had that we could trade any of our relievers for any real return and b) also indicate that in general it's a buyer's market.
Arguably, this isn't even the worst shortstop contract signed in the last five years by a player named Cristian Guzman.
he's not the same hitter he was in 2005 and 2006
This made me laugh. Guzman better hope he's not the same hitter, given that he didn't hit at all in 2006. Like, literally.
he's not the same hitter he was in 2005 and 2006
This made me laugh. Guzman better hope he's not the same hitter, given that he didn't hit at all in 2006. Like, literally.
They said it on the morning show on the Fan, but I guess Bastian has the direct pipeline. I listened to the interview with Cito this morning, and it's hard to decipher.
There's reason to think that Christian Guzman's 2008 represents a new talent ability (I don't think he's as good as he was in 2007) and he's not the same hitter he was in 2005 and 2006. I think $8 million a year is too much, but It's not absolutely terrible.
I think the more relevant news for Jays fans was the deal the fact the Nationals traded Jon Rauch for Emilio Bonifacio. Assuming it wasn't just a case of Bowden overvaluing Bonifacio (IMO), then this should a) end any thoughts anyone had that we could trade any of our relievers for any real return and b) also indicate that in general it's a buyer's market.
Why would you assume that Bowden is capable of getting fair value? The man defines mediocrity at GM and just signed Christian Guzman, again. This appears to me to be further evidence that certain GMs badly overvalue the SB.
I'm afraid ONE example of a low return for a reliever does not in any way prove there's no market for them. Billy Beane himself has been criticized for the low return for one of his starters (Harden) while being praised for the return for another (Blanton) traded in the same month! I could (and have, elsewhere) list several examples of relievers being traded for strong packages.
I'm afraid ONE example of a low return for a reliever does not in any
way prove there's no market for them. Billy Beane himself has been
criticized for the low return for one of his starters (Harden) while
being praised for the return for another (Blanton) traded in the same
month! I could (and have, elsewhere) list several examples of
relievers being traded for strong packages.
That's why I put the caveat in there, that this may be a case of Bowden either valuing Bonifacio more than most people on the internet seem to or he may have prioritizing trying to find a permanent solution at 2B. It should also be noted that Washington has a strong scouting department and they must have had some input on the evaluation of Bonifacio. However, aside from very proven relievers, I don't think there many examples of middle relievers being traded for strong packages recently, aside from the Cincinnati panic move and the trade of Linebrink last year. Guys of the calibre of Lidge will fetch high returns, but I'm far less sure about traditional MRs. I never believed the Jays could trade any of their relievers (but Ryan or Downs) for any substantial return and I'm less convinced now. Relievers such as Tallet and Carlson are worth something, but they're worth more to the Jays than they are as trade bait, IMO.
That's why I put the caveat in there, that this may be a case of Bowden either valuing Bonifacio more than most people on the internet seem to or he may have prioritizing trying to find a permanent solution at 2B. It should also be noted that Washington has a strong scouting department and they must have had some input on the evaluation of Bonifacio. However, aside from very proven relievers, I don't think there many examples of middle relievers being traded for strong packages recently, aside from the Cincinnati panic move and the trade of Linebrink last year. Guys of the calibre of Lidge will fetch high returns, but I'm far less sure about traditional MRs. I never believed the Jays could trade any of their relievers (but Ryan or Downs) for any substantial return and I'm less convinced now. Relievers such as Tallet and Carlson are worth something, but they're worth more to the Jays than they are as trade bait, IMO.
Speaking of Ryan...
Would it be a good idea to trade him now? He appears healthy after missing last year, has 2 years left at about $10 mil per which is reasonable by closer standards it appears. He is in his age 32 season though, he is walking a guy every other inning on average, K'ing 'just' one per when he used to be higher. His closing has become a tightrope at times but he still has good surface numbers, 19 saves and a 2.94 ERA.
If the Jays could get a legit top prospect who is at AA or higher do you go for it? What about 2 of them? Are any contenders searching for a closer, especially a left handed one? If he goes who do you put into the closer role?
Carlson has thrown the exact same number of innings (33 2/3) allowing 2 more hits, 1 more HR, 5 fewer walks (despite intentionally walking 3 more than BJ) and 1 more strikeout.
Tallet has thrown 4 more innings than BJ and given up 9 more hits, 3 fewer walks and the same number of strikeouts and home runs and intentional walks but 2 more earned runs and 3 more runs altogether.
Downs has thrown 11 more innings, 8 more hits, 3 fewer runs, 1 fewer home run, same number of walks (despite 4 more intentional), and 5 more strikeouts.
Basically the 3 other left handed pitchers stats are almost identical to BJ's. If you put all 4 of their stat lines next to each other without 'saves' or 'holds' listed you couldn't tell them apart. Ah you say, but what about batters faced per appearance, BJ faces all comers but the others face just lefties. But BJ has averaged under an inning per appearance (4.09 batters per appearance), while Downs (6.07 batters per appearance) and Tallet (4.53 batters per appearance) are over an inning per so who has the more limited batter view? Carlson has the fewest batters per appearance at 3.26 per appearance. Thus we have two guys pitching as well as BJ, facing more batters per appearance, at a much lower dollar cost plus another guy who has become the loogy of the team. Tell me why the Jays are blowing $10 mil per on BJ and why they wouldn't trade him given his higher profile, thus probable higher return, and save the cash to go after a top shortstop or something else this winter?
To me trading BJ would be a case of selling before the bottom falls out of a market, while giving the Jays a shot at having more financial flexibility for 2009/2010 without costing on the field.
Would it be a good idea to trade him now? He appears healthy after missing last year, has 2 years left at about $10 mil per which is reasonable by closer standards it appears. He is in his age 32 season though, he is walking a guy every other inning on average, K'ing 'just' one per when he used to be higher. His closing has become a tightrope at times but he still has good surface numbers, 19 saves and a 2.94 ERA.
If the Jays could get a legit top prospect who is at AA or higher do you go for it? What about 2 of them? Are any contenders searching for a closer, especially a left handed one? If he goes who do you put into the closer role?
Carlson has thrown the exact same number of innings (33 2/3) allowing 2 more hits, 1 more HR, 5 fewer walks (despite intentionally walking 3 more than BJ) and 1 more strikeout.
Tallet has thrown 4 more innings than BJ and given up 9 more hits, 3 fewer walks and the same number of strikeouts and home runs and intentional walks but 2 more earned runs and 3 more runs altogether.
Downs has thrown 11 more innings, 8 more hits, 3 fewer runs, 1 fewer home run, same number of walks (despite 4 more intentional), and 5 more strikeouts.
Basically the 3 other left handed pitchers stats are almost identical to BJ's. If you put all 4 of their stat lines next to each other without 'saves' or 'holds' listed you couldn't tell them apart. Ah you say, but what about batters faced per appearance, BJ faces all comers but the others face just lefties. But BJ has averaged under an inning per appearance (4.09 batters per appearance), while Downs (6.07 batters per appearance) and Tallet (4.53 batters per appearance) are over an inning per so who has the more limited batter view? Carlson has the fewest batters per appearance at 3.26 per appearance. Thus we have two guys pitching as well as BJ, facing more batters per appearance, at a much lower dollar cost plus another guy who has become the loogy of the team. Tell me why the Jays are blowing $10 mil per on BJ and why they wouldn't trade him given his higher profile, thus probable higher return, and save the cash to go after a top shortstop or something else this winter?
To me trading BJ would be a case of selling before the bottom falls out of a market, while giving the Jays a shot at having more financial flexibility for 2009/2010 without costing on the field.
It is very, very hard to figure out perceived value in relief pitchers. My suggestion: listen to offers for any of them.
In terms of actual value, it is pretty clear that Scott Downs is the best relief pitcher the Jays have now. Over the last 2 years, he has now thrown over 100 very effective innings split almost equally among right and left-handed batters. He could be a good starter if his arm is up to the strain of 180+ inning seasons, which it might very well be.
In terms of actual value, it is pretty clear that Scott Downs is the best relief pitcher the Jays have now. Over the last 2 years, he has now thrown over 100 very effective innings split almost equally among right and left-handed batters. He could be a good starter if his arm is up to the strain of 180+ inning seasons, which it might very well be.
BJ is still just a year removed from TJ surgery, so I'm not sure how much you can read into his numbers - he was just about unhittable in April and May, before struggling a bit lately. If you think this is the "new" BJ, then it makes sense to trade him, but if you think this just a bump in the road on the way back to being the old BJ, then you have to be a bit more reluctant to make a move, or at least make sure you're getting a good deal for him.
The one year from TJ surgery is a big factor for BJ. Is he going to be a monster, able to return to his age 30 level at 32-34? Flamethrowers are known to blow out and BJ has been viewed as an injury risk from day one.
In the end the question is what do other teams view him as? The Jays are fairly unique with 4 solid left handed relievers and I'd say the best idea is to keep an eye open and if anyone offers something good (high level prospect good) for any of them you take it. BJ is the most expensive in dollars and has the highest potential given his track record but also is the highest injury risk. Lots of variables. Better to be the Jays than the team looking for a left hander here I'd say. Lets hope JP finds a team desperate enough who will overpay to get that final piece.
I can't imagine any team willingly paying $10-million a season for Ryan at this point. If the Jays trade him, they're going to have to pick up a large chunk of his salary for the remainder of his contract. It's very clear that he is no longer the BJ of 2005 or 2006, and -- at his age and health status -- there's a significant chance that he'll never be that BJ again. What the Jays have now in BJ Ryan is a competent reliever, but not the dominating closer of the past. That's probably why the Jays are trying hard to develop Brandon League into a top reliever -- they need to groom someone new to be a closer in 2009 or 2010. I'd actually prefer to see Downs or Carlson as the closer, but JP would never accept the embarrassment of paying $10-million per year for a middle reliever.
In the AL, the Angels, Yanks, both Sox, Twins and Royals all undeniably have superior closers to Ryan, putting Ryan 7th with guys like Street, Sherill, Putz and Percival right behind him.
In the NL he'd look a bit better, with Lidge, Wagner and Saito are all clearly better than him, and guys like Wood, Fuentes, Capps and maybe even Rauch in roughly the same category.
So the 11th best closer in the game, a guy only slightly better than the 5 or so guys behind him, with 20 million left on his deal, in his thirties and coming off major injury, with a reduction in velocity? I'd love to deal him for the exellent reasons listed by multiple posters in this thread, but I don't see us getting enough back to make it worthwhile ... for some reason, I have a hunch he'll be better next year with more time to rebuild velocity.
BTW, Florida, St. Louis and Tampa are the only teams I can imagine going after a closer and I can't see any of them looking for a high priced one.
In the NL he'd look a bit better, with Lidge, Wagner and Saito are all clearly better than him, and guys like Wood, Fuentes, Capps and maybe even Rauch in roughly the same category.
So the 11th best closer in the game, a guy only slightly better than the 5 or so guys behind him, with 20 million left on his deal, in his thirties and coming off major injury, with a reduction in velocity? I'd love to deal him for the exellent reasons listed by multiple posters in this thread, but I don't see us getting enough back to make it worthwhile ... for some reason, I have a hunch he'll be better next year with more time to rebuild velocity.
BTW, Florida, St. Louis and Tampa are the only teams I can imagine going after a closer and I can't see any of them looking for a high priced one.
What the Jays have now in BJ Ryan is a competent reliever, but not the dominating closer of the past.
I think it's way too early to make that judgement. The other perspective is a guy who's still recovering from a serious injury, doesn't have his best stuff, yet is still able to close out games. Though there's been a few 'nervous' saves this season, Ryan's always been clearly superior IMO to other possible Jays closers, in the way that he always went right after hitters.
Having said that, I'm in favour of trading BJ because I think he will have real value to some teams out there (in our division alone, he'd be a big boost to Tampa and the Yankees), and I'm fairly confident that Accardo can be our closer again at some point, and do a reasonably good job. If JP has to eat ANY of his salary, I'd be pretty upset b/c he seems to be too willing to do this. Ryan is 32 and seems very fit - a spring chicken next to Rivera, Wagner, Percival, etc...
Downs, Carlson, and Tallet haven't proven that they can close games consistently, but I'm open to letting them try - if only to inflate their trade value, or hold the fort down until Accardo returns.
League seems to have closer stuff, but I see him as a set-up guy more... he seems to need either 1 more pitch (an off-speed one), or much better control to be your closer.
I think it's way too early to make that judgement. The other perspective is a guy who's still recovering from a serious injury, doesn't have his best stuff, yet is still able to close out games. Though there's been a few 'nervous' saves this season, Ryan's always been clearly superior IMO to other possible Jays closers, in the way that he always went right after hitters.
Having said that, I'm in favour of trading BJ because I think he will have real value to some teams out there (in our division alone, he'd be a big boost to Tampa and the Yankees), and I'm fairly confident that Accardo can be our closer again at some point, and do a reasonably good job. If JP has to eat ANY of his salary, I'd be pretty upset b/c he seems to be too willing to do this. Ryan is 32 and seems very fit - a spring chicken next to Rivera, Wagner, Percival, etc...
Downs, Carlson, and Tallet haven't proven that they can close games consistently, but I'm open to letting them try - if only to inflate their trade value, or hold the fort down until Accardo returns.
League seems to have closer stuff, but I see him as a set-up guy more... he seems to need either 1 more pitch (an off-speed one), or much better control to be your closer.
BTW, Florida, St. Louis and Tampa are the only teams I can imagine
going after a closer and I can't see any of them looking for a high
priced one.
Actually I'm thinking that some of the contenders would use Ryan as closer 1A, or even as the lefty set-up guy. Perfect to close out games against tough lefties, in addition to getting the ball to a guy like Rivera. To the Rays, he's health insurance to Percival, or to the Mets with Wagner's woes. Heck, even Lidge might get his yips back... this time last year, he was just a big headache nobody wanted.
I'm not confident in JP getting good value for him though... whereas I KNOW Billy Beane would have 5 suitors already lined up with a list of top prospects, and wouldn't even ASK for any salary-eating...
Actually I'm thinking that some of the contenders would use Ryan as closer 1A, or even as the lefty set-up guy. Perfect to close out games against tough lefties, in addition to getting the ball to a guy like Rivera. To the Rays, he's health insurance to Percival, or to the Mets with Wagner's woes. Heck, even Lidge might get his yips back... this time last year, he was just a big headache nobody wanted.
I'm not confident in JP getting good value for him though... whereas I KNOW Billy Beane would have 5 suitors already lined up with a list of top prospects, and wouldn't even ASK for any salary-eating...
The one year from TJ surgery is a big factor for BJ. Is he going to be a monster, able to return to his age 30 level at 32-34? Flamethrowers are known to blow out and BJ has been viewed as an injury risk from day one.
First off, are flamethrowers really known to blow out? I always believed that they aged better than pitchers who relied on breaking pitches, who I thought were more prone to injury because of the stress imposed by those breaking pitches.
Second, is flamethrower even an apt description for Ryan? Despite appearances to the contrary, the radar gun says different. I think Ryan's problem right now is command. Without his command, Ryan is not a dominating closer. I am hoping this struggle can be chalked up to post-TJ recovery.
This probably isn't terribly meaningful, but the oldest pitchers in baseball:
Moyer-PHI (45) - Junk-throwing lefty
Johnson-ARI (44) - Flame throwing freak
Rogers-DET (43) - Junk
Timlin-BOS (42) - Not sure any more. He used to throw hard...
Glavine-ATL (42) - Junk
Maddux-SDP (42) - Somewhere in-between.
Wakefield-BOS (41) - Junk
Jones-DET (40) - Closer to finesse
Mussina-NYY (39) - Maybe not a flamethrower, but a hard thrower, anyway.
It's probably a bit different for relievers, since the usage patterns are different: The active saves leaders are Hoffman, Rivera, Wagner, Percival, and Jones, which is a relatively diverse selection of pitchers.
Moyer-PHI (45) - Junk-throwing lefty
Johnson-ARI (44) - Flame throwing freak
Rogers-DET (43) - Junk
Timlin-BOS (42) - Not sure any more. He used to throw hard...
Glavine-ATL (42) - Junk
Maddux-SDP (42) - Somewhere in-between.
Wakefield-BOS (41) - Junk
Jones-DET (40) - Closer to finesse
Mussina-NYY (39) - Maybe not a flamethrower, but a hard thrower, anyway.
It's probably a bit different for relievers, since the usage patterns are different: The active saves leaders are Hoffman, Rivera, Wagner, Percival, and Jones, which is a relatively diverse selection of pitchers.
"Second, is flamethrower even an apt description for Ryan? Despite appearances to the contrary, the radar gun says different.
Agreed Chuck, 88-91 does not a flame-thrower make. As evidenced by last night (and a few others), BJ's control is not there on a consitent basis and until then, his status as Closer Extrodinaire is downgraded to merely Very Good.