The rule of thumb for prospects is that each year one third will improve; one third will regress; and one third will do neither, they stagnate.  Here is how the Jays prospects stack up.

Mulligans

The Jays selected several high school hitters in the 2007 draft, most of whom are playing in Lansing this year. This is the first full season for these players, their 2007 season was about 50 games long and revolved around the Tampa/Dunedin corridor.  This is the first full, 140 game season, for these players and the first with the long bus rides to Wisconsin or Iowa.  Most of these players will play this season as 19 year-olds and have achieved just by playing and competing in Lansing this season.  Many of these players might return to Lansing next year for their age 20 seasons.  A possible career path for these players could be:

Age 20 - Lansing/Dunedin
Age 21 - Dunedin/New Hampshire
Age 22 - New Hampshire/Syracuse/September call-up

Because of their age I am giving these players a mulligan rather than picking improve or unchanged.  One could argue that they have improved just by virtue of their play at Lansing, but when you see their rankings coming into the season it is hard to argue that they will change much for most of them.  Let's look at how they are doing.

Kevin Ahrens (#3 - per Batters Box Top 30 List)

Ahrens is hitting in the .265 - .275 range and has shown some power.  Remember power is usually late to develop as hitters mature and grow into their bodies.  Ahrens has about 100 points of isolated power, he is mainly a doubles hitter right now.  Ahrens is striking out about 30% of the time and his walk/strikeout ratio is 1:3.  Both numbers need to improve as he gains experience.

Yohermyn Chavez (#5)

Chavez has struggled more than the other 19 year olds, his batting average has moved under and back over .200.  Chavez also has about 100 points of isolated power and also strikes out about 30% of the time.  His walk/strikeout ratio is 1:4.  Chavez is a tall, gangly player who doesn't appear to have become comfortable in his body yet.  Chavez was the second highest rated 18 year-old last season, his ranking will drop at the end of this season.

John Tolisano (#6)

Tolisano has lived up to his reputation as a strong hitter, he has been hitting in the .260's and has 135 points of isolated power.  Tolisano's strikeout rate is around 20%, and his walk/strikeout ratio is 2:3, both good for his age and better than his peers.  Tolisano's reputation is that his fielding is weak although he is settling in well at second base.

Eric Eiland (#12)

Eiland was a late arrival to Lansing and has about half the at-bats of his fellow age-groupers.  Eiland is hitting around .250 with a little power.  Eiland's calling card is his speed, he has 13 steals without being caught and has the speed to play centre-field.  Eiland is striking out 30% of the time and his walk/strikeout ratio is 1:2. 

Justin Jackson (#15)

Jackson started the hottest of these players but has faded since.  His batting average has settled in the .220's.  Jackson has 5 home runs and his power is the same as Tolisano's.  Jackson leads the team in strikeouts and walks, he K's over 30% of the time and his walk strikeout ratio is a little less than 1:2.  Jackson plays a very good defense at shortstop.

Summary

The Jays have to be happy that these players are playing well in A at their age.  Next year will be a key move up year for all of them.

Improve

Travis Snider (#1)

It is hard to argue for improvement for a #1 prospect but Snider has done well for a 20 year-old in AA.  Snider's calling card is power and he has shown plenty of power in AA.  Snider struggled when he was first promoted as he nursed an elbow injury.  Snider has delivered just under .200 points of isolated power, his May was best month for power and he has levelled off some in June and July.  Snider strikeouts more than 30% of the time and walks about 10% giving him a walk/strikeout ratio just over 1:3.  The rest of Snider's game, in the field and on the bases, needs work.  Snider could probably hit in the major leagues right now but he likely needs more time to work on pitch recognition and strike zone judgement.

Brett Cecil (#2)

Cecil is another player who got off to a slow start due to an injury in spring training.  Cecil has now made 19 starts, although he is averaging just over 4 innings per start.  Cecil was a reliever in college and the Jays are being careful not to overload his arm in his first full season.  Cecil has struckout more than a hitter per inning and his walk strikeout ratio is almost 1:4 in AA.  Cecil has allowed only 4 home runs in 73 innings, the equivalent of eight games, an excellent ratio.  Cecil looks like he will be a Blue Jay soon.  Because the Jays are watching his workload this year Cecil is unlikely to get a call-up this year.

Kyle Ginley (#9)

Ginley, still 21 years old, returned to Lansing to start this season.  After putting up a 1.24 ERA Ginley was moved up to Dunedin.  Ginley started well at Dunedin but has an ERA over 5 in his last ten starts.  In Lansing Ginley had to learn to pitch, to use his off-speed pitches, and once he did he was promoted.  Now that Ginley is struggling a little in high A, Ginley will have to learn how to pitch to more advanced hitters.

Marc Rzepczynski (#10)

Rzepczynski had a late start to the 2008 season but now has made 13 starts for Lansing.  Zip has a 2.14 ERA, is striking out just about a hitter an inning and has only allowed one home run.  Zip has a walk/strikeout ratio of 1:3.

JP Arencibia (#13)

Arencibia was drafted as a good hit, questionable fielding catcher.  This season he has answered many questions with his excellent hitting and improved defense.  Arencibia has approx. 100 AA at-bats and is hitting around .300 with well over 200 points of isolated power.  As of this writing Travis Snider has 15 doubles and 14 home runs in just under 300 AA at-bats.  Arencibia has one third the at-bats but has 4 doubled and 6 home runs, a similar output although Snider has the better hitting reputation.  Arencibia has 19 minor league home runs between both stops this season.  Arencibia has not walked yet at AA, but the pitchers have not yet made him pay.  That challenge will come next year in AAA.

Brad Mills (#27)

Mills, 23 years old, was a 2007 draft pick.  Mills didn't pitch much in 2007 due to an injury but has pitched well in 2008.  At Lansing Mills put up a 2.55 ERA in 15 starts, at Dunedin his ERA is 2.00 in 3 starts.  Mills has excellent "stuff" but needs to work on his control.  Mills has given up 35 walks this season in 99 innings. 

Scott Campbell (Watch List)

Scott Campbell did not make our Top 30 list last season, or Baseball America's but he has blossomed this year in AA.  Campbell defense is a question and he is unlikely to be a utility player in the major leagues.  Campbell has hit .300 in each month this season and has a very good eye at the plate.  Campbell was a walk/strikeout ratio of 1:1 and only K's about 15% of the time.  Campbell has made excellent progress in his breakout age 23 season.

Joel Carreno

Carreno made Baseball America's top 30 last season and has pitched in five games for Auburn this season.  Carreno has pitched very well with an opponent BA of .165 and 27 K's in 24 innings.

Summary

The Jays have three position players who have improved and are getting close to help the team, Snider is about a year away, Arencibia and Campbell about 18 months.  From a pitching perspective Cecil is about a year away, Mills, Ginley and Rzepczynski could be ready in 2009.

I have only put six of last seasons top 30 in the improve category, not a good number based on the one third should improve metric.  Putting all the high school players in the improve category is probably a reach.  Based on this it is hard to say to Jays prospects are, in total, having an above average season.

Unchanged

David Purcey (#8)

Purcey has pitched very well for Syracuse and poorly for Toronto.  Purcey has appeared to be a two pitch pitcher in Toronto and it is difficult to survive as a two pitch pitcher unless you have great control of both.  From a AAA perspective this year has been a positive for Purcey, he has halved his ERA from last season.  Purcey's rating however is based on his ability to help the Jays and that is still up in the air.

Brian Jeroloman (#16)

Jeroloman plays great defense, has a great eye at the plate and has a little power.  The only knock on Jeroloman is his batting average which sits around .250.  Jeroloman also hit .250 last season in A ball.  If Jeroloman could hit .250 in the major leagues with a .330 or .340 OBP and great defense he could have a job for years.  Arencibia appears to have passed Jeroloman on the depth chart so Jeroloman may have to spend another year in AA next season if Arencibia goes to AAA.

Ryan Patterson (#21)

Patterson's main objective this season was to be more consistent and to control his attitude to success and failure.  Patterson started well but has faded some recently, although he may be battling some nagging injuries.  Patterson's OPS by month is .841; .805; .708; and .555.

David Smith (#22)

Smith looked set for a role at AAA this season but an injury delayed his start to the year.  Smith did get to Syracuse but didn't get much playing time despite a .931 OPS in only 53 at-bats.  The Jays sent Smith back to AA where he has a .832 OPS in 126 at-bats.  Smith doesn't appear to get much respect within the Jays system and he seems to be stuck behind Wayne Lydon, Buck Coats, Matt Watson and Russ Adams. 

Summary

Only four Jays players in the unchanged category.  Purcey remains an enigma whose future is very hard to predict.  Jeroloman appears to have been passed by Arencibia and Patterson and Smith are hoping for Reed Johnson type careers.

Decline/Regress

Robinzon Diaz (#4)

Diaz suffred an ankle injury early in the season and only played in 16 games at AAA.  Diaz had been on a rehab assigment in the GCL but recently re-aggravated the injury and his return to AAA is uncertain.  Diaz was also injured last season and in total he is close to missing a full season which is tough for a hitter to compensate for.  Diaz is still only 24 but the Jays probably hoped that Diaz could have been getting major league experience by this time.

Ricky Romero (#7)

Romero is still just 23 years old but has yet to show he can be successful in AA.  Opposition hitters are hitting over .300 against him and his K/9 is around 6.  Romero's last two starts have been better but whether that is a trend or a mirage is unknown.

Joel Collins (#11)

Collins #11 ranking was an over-ranking, attributable in part to excellent lobbying by our own Mike Green.  Collins has been a spare part for the Jays this season bouncing around between three teams although now he is playing well for Auburn.

Chi-Hung Cheng (#17)

Cheng is another player who has been hurt by injuries.  After missing most of 2007 Cheng has spent time on the DL again this year and has a 4.95 ERA in 60 innings.  None of Cheng's numbers are oustanding and he needs to improve significantly to get back on the prospect radar. 

Adrian Martin (#19)

Martin also was injured this year and is now pitching out of the bullpen.  Martin has an ERA over 5 in 50 innings.  Martin doesn't miss many bats and hitters are over .340 against him.

Balbino Fuenmayor (#23)

Fuenmayor is the same age as many of the high schoolers in Lansing but he is playing two levels below them and hitting just over .200, an improvement from .174 last season.  Balbino has struck out 21 times in 63 at-bats this season.

Nate Starner (#24)

Starner was a starter at Lansing but has been a reliever in Dunedin.  Starner has allowed high A hitters to hit .295 off him and his strikeouts have dropped at Dunedin to 15 K's in 23 innings. 

Jacob Butler (#26)

Butler, playing in his first year at AA, has power, 13 home runs, and has a reasonable eye but has had difficulty hitting for average.  Butler hit .273 in Dunedin last season and just .234 this year. 

Brandon Magee (#28)

Magee has a poor start to the season, as he did in 2007, but has shown some improvement recently.  Magee doesn't miss many bats, he has 37 K's in 104 innings.

AJ Wideman (#29)

Wideman was promoted to AA to start the season but struggled in 11 starts.  Wideman has not pitched much better in Dunedin and needs to get back to his 2007 form.

Jon DelCampo (#30)

DelCampo is a 20 year old infielder who has only 55 at-bats this season.  In those at-bats DelCampo is hitting just .236.

Anthony Hatch (Watch)

Hatch, like Wideman, moved up to AA to start the season but never got untracked and was moved back to Dunedin in July.  Since then Hatch has been on fire.  Hatch is not a plus defender at third so he needs to really hit to progress.

Trystan Magnuson (DNP)

Magnuson did not play in 2007 and has had a rough start to 2008.  Magnuson has shown some improvement over the last month but still has a way to go.

Summary

Not much to celebrate here, many injuries and poor performances.

Gone But Not Forgotten

Josh Banks (#14)

Banks was claimed on waivers by the Padres and he has a 3.20 ERA in 50 major league innings.

Lee Gronkiewicz (#18)

Gronk has only pitched 11 innings for Pawtucket this season and has a 0.79 ERA.

Sergio Santos (#20)

Santos is hitting .241, and has an OPS of .635, for Rochester.

Kyle Yates (#25)

Yates was released by the Jays and is playing independent ball.

Up and Coming

Eric Kratz

Eric Kratz is a long time Blue Jay who just turned 28.  Kratz is a superior defender whose offense was always behind his defense.  Kartz has improved his hitting this season and has a 800+ OPS at both AA and AAA.  I spoke with a pair of Blue Jay minor league coaches this season who were both convinced that Kratz will play as a backup in the major leagues.  Kratz is a six year free agent at the end of this year.

Scott Richmond

Richmond is a Canadian who signed as a minor league free agent last year.  Richmond pitched well at AA and has pitched better in AAA in 3 starts.  Richmond has three solid pitches, a fastball, a curve and a slider/cutter, and he is working hard on a change-up.  Because of his background in independent ball Richmond has a "young" arm.  He probably needs more AAA experience but if he can maintain his performance in AAA he could get a chance with the Jays.

Michael MacDonald

MacDonald has a very good ERA at Syracuse, 2.81.  MacDonald is a sinker, slider pitcher, similar to Jamie Vermilyea, and his success in the big leagues is uncertain.  MacDonald has 43 K's in 67 AAA innings.

Zach Dials

Dials was originally tried as a started by the Jays but has thrived since being moved to the bullpen.  Dials is still only 22, he will be 23 next week.  Dials has a 1.13 ERA in Dunedin and earned a promotion to AA.  Dials ERA in AA is 3.34 but he has a zero ERA over his last ten appearances and in the month of July.  Dials has almost a K per inning in AA, has a very good 1:4 walk/striekout ratio and has only allowed one home run in 32 AA innings.  Dials has a good fastball, a slider and a change-up. 

Robert Ray

Ray is having a good year and has finally reached AA.  Ray has a major league fastball but needs to work on his complementary pitches.

Tim Collins

Collins is a short, 5' 6", lefty reliever who has pitched well in his first pro season at age 18.  Hittersd are hitting just .122 off Collins who has 66 K's in 44 innings.  Collins size will work against him but his results are impressive.

Moises Sierra

Sierra is a 19 year old who deserves to be considered with the other high scoolers above.  Sierra hit only .203 in the GCL last season and didn't make our top 30 list.  Sierra has the best outfield arm in the system and swings with power.  His stats are similar to the other young players in Lansing and Sierra will be expected to pick it up next year.