Pitchers are an odd beast. They can have career years at age 20 (Dwight Gooden) or age 45 (Phil Niekro). OK, Phil's age 35 season might have been better.
There is a reason no one claims to predict pitchers with a high degree of accuracy, and why TINSTAAPP. Still, lets see how the Jays are doing vs their careers.
For this exercise I'll focus on IP BB/9 SO/9 ERA ERA+ as that tells the majority of the tale. W-L and Saves are more a function of how the manager uses them and how good the team around them is rather than the players individual skill. Some would say the same of ERA, but it is an oldie that many enjoy (including me).
For reference: Team Totals: IP: 852.1 BB/9: 2.97 SO/9: 7.33 ERA: 3.63 (3rd in the AL) ERA+: 112
The Starting Rotation... fairly strong, the weakest link is also the best trade chip
Roy Halladay... The Ace
Minors... lots of talent, some almost here
Bullpen... 7 guys over 100 for ERA+ but very long in the tooth
Scott Downs... multi year deal and earning it
Minor Leagues... to stand out here you gotta do something amazing
There is a reason no one claims to predict pitchers with a high degree of accuracy, and why TINSTAAPP. Still, lets see how the Jays are doing vs their careers.
For this exercise I'll focus on IP BB/9 SO/9 ERA ERA+ as that tells the majority of the tale. W-L and Saves are more a function of how the manager uses them and how good the team around them is rather than the players individual skill. Some would say the same of ERA, but it is an oldie that many enjoy (including me).
For reference: Team Totals: IP: 852.1 BB/9: 2.97 SO/9: 7.33 ERA: 3.63 (3rd in the AL) ERA+: 112
The Starting Rotation... fairly strong, the weakest link is also the best trade chip
Roy Halladay... The Ace
- Age31 IP 146.3 BB:1.29 vs 2.12 SO:7.44 vs 6.33 ERA:2.71 vs 3.55 ERA+ of 151 vs 130
- He is the ace. Doing better than normal in BB/9, SO/9, and ERA. On pace for his 2nd Cy Young with his crazy 7 CG's already.
- Age 31 IP 127 BB:4.04 vs 3.78 SO:8.93 vs 8.23 ERA: 4.96 vs 3.88 ERA+ of 82 vs 108
- Has had his issues, but still a great one when he is focused. If he stays I expect a situation like Cito had with David Wells years ago to emerge at some point (it was ugly).
- Age 26 IP: 111.1 BB: 3.07 vs 3.59 SO: 6.87 vs 7.25 ERA: 4.37 vs 4.71 ERA+ of 93 vs 92
- Talented but almost as much of a variable as AJ. Now out with a rotator cuff tear but might be able to avoid the knife.
- Age 23 IP:110.1 BB:1.39 vs 2.16 SO:4.73 vs 4.39 ERA: 4.16 vs 3.98 ERA+ of 98 vs 107
- His stats this year and last are now with 2/3 IP so a direct comparison can be done...
2008 vs 2007: 127 H vs 116, 59 R vs 56, 16 HR vs 14, 17 BB vs 36, 58 SO vs 50. He has improved in most key areas. - Pretty good for a 5th guy. Sadly I fear the ghost of Chacin (now in A ball, probably to be released by end of season). Low K/9, but it is improving. If he gets it over 5 I might start believing.
- Age 26 IP: 98.2 BB:2.46 vs 3.09 SO:7.84 vs 7.25 ERA: 2.65 vs 3.82 ERA+ of 154 vs 115
- Hits per 9, walks per 9, K's per 9, Pitcher per IP all career bests. His 5 HBP is also a career high, so watch out batters!
- If he comes back as good as he left we have our solid #2. His BB-SO is within eyeshot of Halladay's career averages and that is saying something.
Minors... lots of talent, some almost here
- David Purcey: Age 26 A pair of wild ML starts plus 111 IP in AAA, 2.8 BB, 9.2 K, 2.76 ERA. If he gets another shot he better do something with it or risk being labeled a AAAA guy (good enough for AAA, not for the ML).
- Brett Cecil: Age 21, climbing very fast. 1.74 ERA in A+, 2.86 in AA. Total of 2.7 BB/9, 9.45 K/9. Looks to be very, very close but might be left down for 2008 so he doesn't have to go on the 40 man this winter (this is his 2nd pro season) but I expect him to be starting here in 2009
- Bradley Mills: Age 23, A and A+, 2.45 ERA overall, 3.2 BB/9, 9.8 K/9. A potential fast riser, could find himself in AA by August with an invite to spring training 2009. 14th round pick in '06 who looks darn good.
- A stack of others are solid, but not jumping off the page as being able to break into this rotation or move ahead of Cecil and Purcey. Say what you will about JP but he has built up a very deep starting rotation.
Bullpen... 7 guys over 100 for ERA+ but very long in the tooth
Scott Downs... multi year deal and earning it
- Age 32 IP:42.2 BB:3.80 vs 3.56 SO:7.80 vs 6.94 ERA:1.69 vs 4.14 ERA+ 242 vs 108
- Has been very reliable but that BB/9 figure has me a bit nervous. Every year since he got here his BB/9 figure has been getting a bit worse. Might not be a bad idea to sell high here if someone jumps at that shiny ERA.
- Age 30 IP: 36.2 BB:3.68 vs 4.24 SO:7.85 vs 6.62 ERA:3.19 vs 3.62 ERA+ 128 vs 122
- His best control since his rookie year (faced just 47 batters that year). His highest K/9 ever. Cheap, solid guy in the pen
- Age 32 IP:31.2 BB:4.55 vs 4.32 SO:9.38 vs 10.79 ERA:2.84 vs 3.25 ERA+: 143 vs 137
- Walks are the worst since '03 and K's the lowest since '02
- 18 for 20 in saves, easy to count on, but a lot more wild than before and not as good at the K
- Age 27 IP: 30 BB: 3.60 SO: 9.60 ERA:2.10 ERA+:194 this is his first ML season
- Sweet debut season. Proof that you don't need to pay $3 million to a mediocre setup man
- Age 30 IP:28.1 BB:6.04 vs 3.98 SO:8.58 vs 8.18 ERA:3.81 vs 3.98 ERA+ 107 vs 114
- Completely lost out there, the 6th of 7 men in a pen that rarely has that much work. His wildness is worse than I noticed, not that he gets many chances at points in the game when we'd all notice him.
- Age 32 IP:24.2 BB:1.46 vs 2.47 SO:6.93 vs 6.59 ERA:3.65 vs 5.11 ERA+:112 vs 89
- Found his control and has been rewarded. Just 2 HR in those 24 2/3 IP too.
- Age 27 IP:17 BB:2.65 vs 2.02 SO:5.29 vs 4.62 ERA:3.18 vs 3.03 ERA+:128 vs 144
- Very solid for a 7th man, but those low K figures are scary out of a reliever. As long as his control holds he should survive though
- Age 26 IP:12.1 BB:2.92 vs 2.88 SO:3.65 vs 6.66 ERA:6.57 vs 3.99 ERA+:62 vs 111
- No strikeout pitch, no success. Fairly simple equation. Hopefully he finds it when he comes back.
- Age 25 IP:7.2 BB:11.74 vs 4.13 SO:4.70 vs 5.19 ERA:4.70 vs ERA+:87 vs 102
- Hard to succeed when you have a K to BB ratio of 0.4
Minor Leagues... to stand out here you gotta do something amazing
- Zachary Dials: A+ and AA, 20 saves in 40.1 IP, 1 HR, 9 BB, 41 SO 2.93 ERA and 22 years old. His K/9 was nothing special until this year, so I suspect he is on a fast track now and could make the pen in '09 at some point
- Cody Crowell: a lefty in A and A+, 49.1 IP 24 H 1 HR 25 BB 70 SO 1.84 ERA age 22. That works out to 12.77 K/9. Sweet.
- Tim Collins: a tiny lefty in low A who isn't really viewed as a prospect yet but... 18 years old, 13.3 K/9, a WHIP of 0.83 kind of draws attention Hopefully he gets a shot at higher levels.
- Lots of other guys deserve a mention like Nathan Starner, Orlando Roman, plus many more. However, if starters are hard to predict relievers are almost impossible. I really cannot say who the Jays would call up next, but given the depth in the majors and JP's talent for finding hidden gems I figure this area isn't a major concern.
