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Just for fun, while we have a few days with fixed stats, lets see how various Jays have done vs their lifetime numbers. Also included are a few high level prospects who might be here in 2009.


For the stats below I'm using Avg/OBP/Slg and OPS+. These tend to give a good view overall and with the sample size issues at mid-season it is hard to justify any other stats plus most people know these ones fairly well.

Starting at catcher.... aka 'the good news'


Greg Zaun... Doing well
  • age 37 season, a few injuries but nothing too major so far
  • 244/354/375 vs lifetime 251/345/387 plus he has had 2 stolen bases vs one caught stealing. OPS+ of 97 vs 91 lifetime.
  • Caught 10 of 38 runners stealing (26%) which is better than his career mark of 24.6%
  • Should crack 100 games played by seasons end (at 57 right now) which he has done only 4 times before but has 99 or more every season as a Jay (this is his 5th season here). His OPS+ here has been 96-94-112-98-97 so perfectly in line with past performance if not a bit higher than one should expect from a 37 year old catcher.
Rod Barajas... Career season
  • age 32 season, fairly healthy
  • 267/317/461 vs lifetime 242/290/414 - OPS+ of 107 vs 78 for his career, best ever was a 97.
  • 32.4% of basestealers caught (12 of 37) vs career mark of 33.5% so pretty much on target
  • Should crack 100 games as well, has played in 60 so far, which he has done just twice before. Looks like a very fine free agent signing and his option almost definitely will be picked up for 2009
Curtis Thigpen...failed prospect
  • age 25 season, this was to be his year to break in
  • Not enough ML time (1 for 6) to matter. Hitting just 226-266-323 in AAA catching just 8 of 49 (16.3%) stealing
Robinzon Diaz...slow progress this year
  • age 24 season, injuries have delayed his arrival
  • 0 for 4 in the majors, 286-371-411 in AAA, 410/419/641 in rookie ball rehabbing
  • Should be here in September, shooting for a full shot next year backing up Barajas

Minor Leaguers... Showing some hope beyond Diaz and Thigpen
  • Erik Kratz has been a solid AAAA guy, 246/293/520 between AAA and AA but is no more than an emergency call-up for potential.
  • Brian Jeroloman has shown a fair amount in AA - 249/372/373 catching 17 of 51, 33%, basestealers - and will be in AAA next year ready for the first major injury.
  • J.P. Arencibia is showing why he might be the guy we think of when we hear 'JP' - 309/331/553 between A+ and AA - and just might pass Jeroloman and Diaz on the depth chart by the time April comes around.
  • And don't forget Jonathan Jaspe in low A hitting 369/427/544 at age 23. A quick climb next year and 2010 arrival is possible.

First Base/DH...
aka 'the not as good news'
Lyle Overbay... reasonable comeback
  • Age 31 season, fairly healthy
  • 269/371/399 vs career 282/363/447, OPS+ of 108 vs career 110 - loss of some power, but OBP still OK
  • 15 GDP is a concern - his career high was 19 before this year.
  • A nice recovery from his disaster of last year (122 games, 85 OPS+) but needs that power to return if he is to be a solid firstbaseman on a championship team
Frank Thomas... so long, farewell, we hope not to see you soon
  • Age 40 season and released after a very slow start. Hit well for Oakland before going on the DL at the end of May
Matt Stairs... nearing the end
  • Age 40 season, fairly healthy
  • 253/342/406 vs career 266/358/484. OPS+ of 101 vs 119 career
  • 15 games in the outfield, but really shouldn't be out there. A decent pinch hitter, 24th guy on the team but shouldn't be an everyday player or even in a platoon.
Minor Leagues... Pretty devoid of real prospects who are close
  • Chip Cannon in AAA is 26 237/345/356 and going nowhere.
  • David Cooper is the only real prospect in the system for 1B and he is in low A now hitting 340/414/524 between low A and short season A. Hopefully he can make it to AA next year and be on the edge for 2010, and up permanently in 2011 when Overbay's contract runs out.
Second Base... we know who it is, but will he recover?
Aaron Hill...serious injury (thanks Eck) and out until ???
  • Age 26 season, signed contract that could last through 2014
  • 263/324/361 vs career 284/339/409 OPS+ of 85 vs lifetime 96
  • Already reached a career high in sac bunts (4) in just 55 games
  • Hitting was poor, but within a hot streak of his career norms. Just that head injury that is scary
Marco Scutaro... super sub, doing as expected
  • Age 32 season, signed for this year and next
  • 261/347/333 vs lifetime 259/324/377 OPS+ of 85 vs career 86, a bit less power a bit more OBP otherwise just as hoped
  • Has played over 20 games at SS/2B/3B plus 3 in each of LF and 1B. More at SS than 2B but generally viewed as more of a 2B
Joe Inglett... from out of nowhere a hero emerges
  • Age 30 season, with just 66 games in the majors before this year
  • 301/356/445 vs lifetime 295/346/418 OPS+ of 115 career of 100
  • 23 games at 2B, 15 in LF, 8 in RF, 6 at 3B, 2 at SS, and 1 in CF
  • Perfect compliment to Scutaro, a left handed hitter who can play anywhere
Also... Jorge Velandia a 33 year old AAAA guy

Minor Leagues... some talent here
  • Scott Campbell in AA age 23 hitting 332/422/451after showing a 390+ OBP in two previous seasons in the lower minors. Has just played 2B this year, but does have 11 games at 3B in the past two years plus 1 at SS. Could be here as early as September but questions on his defense exist
  • Kevin Melilo in AAA age 26 has hit 246/331/406 but slumped since coming to Syracuse from the Oakland system and doesn't appear to have a bright future

Third Base... Solid in the majors, not a lot of depth

Scott Rolen... Somehow found a way to be inbetween his bad and good years
  • Age 33 season, missing at the start but solid since
  • 267/358/431 OPS+ of 112 vs career 283/371/503 OPS+ of 125
  • Worse than his first 9 years as a regular but much better than 2 of his last 3 years
  • Troy Glaus is at 128 for OPS+ but given he demanded a trade I figure this isn't too bad
Minor Leagues...
  • Hector Luna is in AAA, age 28, 280/341/412, can play SS as well, could be a good utility guy (1 for 1 in the majors this year). Now off the 40 man roster
  • Kevin Ahrens is probably the top prospect, age 19 in Lansing, but is hitting just 270/336/375 and is a long ways away, as are the other decent prospects

Shortstop... not much today or in the near future
David Eckstein
... as advertised
  • Age 33 season, one significant injury and caused another
  • 269/354/354 vs career 285/351/362, OPS+ of 92 vs career 89.
  • Nothing to see here. He is here this year and that is it, probably trade bait for a contender with issues at SS
John McDonald... hitting worse than even our low expectations
  • Age 33 season, got hurt at exactly the wrong time, signed for 2009
  • 182/237/200 vs career 238/277/312 OPS+ of 20 vs career 56
  • 21 games at SS, 4 at 3B, 1 at 2B
Minor Leagues... not much here either
  • Danny Sandoval in AAA is 29 and hitting 289/337/390 between Syracuse & Buffalo. AAAA guy.
  • Pedro Lopez in AAA is just 24 but is hitting just 233/315/300 with a lifetime 680 OPS in the minors
  • Justin Jackson is 19 in Lansing (low A) and hitting 232/345/370 so some hope here if the bat develops but is a long, long way away

Outfield... Solid starters through 2014, plus a 20 year old knocking on the door
Alexis Rios ... Signed until 2014 but slumping year one
  • Age 27, has played all but 6 games, wide awake from start to finish for about the same number of games
  • 285/337/401 OPS+ of 98 vs career 287/338/445 OPS+ of 104 - much closer than expected, about mid way between his bad first 2 years and his solid past 2 years
  • 32 games in CF plus 59 in RF, his defense is very solid when he is paying attention
  • I suspect this is Cito's big project this year - getting Rios to reach his full potential
Vernon Wells... Signed until 2014
  • Age 29 season, some (OK, lots of) injury issues
  • 287/329/449 107 OPS+ vs career 282/330/477 108 OPS+, down a bit in power but vs the league is pretty much dead on his career figure
  • This is actually his 3rd best OPS+ season so far. Go figure. Not a $20 million player, but not an anchor on the team either
Adam Lind... Young and finally showing his promise
  • Age 24 season, getting along with the new manager
  • 269/301/474 OPS+ of 105 vs career 262/302/442 94 OPS+. Since Cito is hitting 339/365/610 - wow.
  • I think we have found our LF'er
Shannon Stewart... seemed like a good idea at the time
  • Age 34 season and might be done
  • 240/325/303 OPS+ of 71 vs career 297/360/430 OPS+ of 105
  • Now DL'ed and hopefully we won't see again until a final farewell in September
Brad Wilkerson... 4th outfielder at best
  • Age 31 season, released by Seattle given a last shot here
  • 230/326/327 78 OPS+ overall, 248/352/443 106 OPS+ lifetime
  • His Toronto only stats are pretty much the same. Don't see him sticking around the whole season except in a 4th/5th outfield role and Inglett is probably ahead of him now on the outfield depth chart.
Kevin Mench... at least he didn't cost much
  • Age 30 season, should be at or near his peak
  • 231/307/338 74 OPS+ vs career 270/326/462 100 OPS+
  • Has been sent down before, and will be again when Wells returns I suspect
Also...Buck Coats: Age 26, 1 for 5 in the majors, 283/352/401 in AAA and probably deserves the backup outfield slot used by Mench & Wilkerson but isn't really that much better or worse.

Minor Leagues...
  • David Smith, age 27, has split time between A+, AA, and AAA hitting better at each level, 275/373/459 overall and right now would probably be as good a choice for RH OF as Mench. Slugged over 500 in AA last year.
  • Travis Snider, age 20, has split time between A+ and AA hitting 267/340/459 in AA, 269/339/476 overall. Only 40 of his 95 games have been in the field, mainly DH'ing this year. Given Lind in the majors we just might see Snider stuck as a DH/4th outfielder in the majors, full time hitter but part time fielder. Time will tell.

Phew. Lots of stuff here to digest. Will get to work on the pitching next, but not until after the All-Star game tonight.
First Half vs Career - Who is doing what - Hitters | 9 comments | Create New Account
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PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 15 2008 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#188900) #

I suspect you'd see either Lind or Snider at 1st base rather than have Snider turn into a fulltime DH at age 21.  Both will likely outhit Overbay next year (heck probably this year).  I don't know if you'd find many takers for Overbay at this point and if he is on the roster I'd assume you'd want him on the field defensively as I'd imagine he'd be better than either Lind or Snider.  If you are stuck with Overbay, it'd be nice to be able to sit him against lefties.

John Northey - Tuesday, July 15 2008 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#188905) #
The problem with sitting Overbay vs LHP is that Snider and Lind are both left handers as is Stairs (the other likely backup).

I can see the Jays going with Lind and Snider alternating between LF and DH, having Stairs cover RF for when Wells or Rios needs a day off and covering first for days off for Overbay.  They might put Lind or Snider at first and Stairs as the DH, or Stairs as the DH and Snider and Lind being in LF/RF.

2009 will be a roster challenge though with the signed players we have already.

CA: Zaun or Barajas (other ones option not picked up) mixed with Diaz.  Jeroloman and Arencibia trying to sneak in as well.
1B: Overbay
2B: Hill
3B: Rolen
SS: Scutaro and McDonald
LF: Lind
CF: Wells
RF: Rios
DH: Snider
UT: Inglett
1B/OF/DH: Stairs

And that is the 13 player lineup.  Snider's slot being the only one open for discussion really (is he ready or not in 2009).  Already signed are Overbay, Hill, Rolen, Scutaro, McDonald, Wells, Rios.  Barajas & Zaun have team options.  Lind, Snider, Inglett, and Diaz have too little service time to have an option other than doing whatever the Jays tell them to do.  No real flexibility I'd say but tons of cost certainty.  Only options for backups are to sign AAAA guys or demote Snider & Inglett.
jerjapan - Tuesday, July 15 2008 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#188907) #
"Only options for backups are to sign AAAA guys or demote Snider & Inglett."

Or a six man bullpen.  Sigh.  Why are the Jays, with a loaded pitching staff of starters who can work late into games (although now's not the best time to make this claim) and a number of strong relievers, lefties and righties, so married to the 7 man pen? 
jerjapan - Tuesday, July 15 2008 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#188910) #
Great article John! 

Some random thoughts:

  • We are stacked at catcher.  I'd almost dispute that Kratz is a AAAA guy ... he looks like he could make a solid backup and I'm under the impression he's a solid defender.  There are guys with worse minor league numbers and average defensive ability pulling in a big league paycheck.  With Kratz, Arencebia and Jerloman arguably all belonging in AAA next year, what do we do with Thigpen?  Russ Adams v.2?
  •  I think this depth also makes it appealing to try and deal one of Zaun or Barajas if they can bring back a decent prospect.
  • We have a serious lack of positional depth in the high minors.  I would attempt to trade all available assetts this year to address this - Burnett, Downs, Eckstein, Barajas ...
  • A veteran righthanded bat who can spell Overbay at 1st and do a lot of the DHing would look great for next year. 
Hopefully we get to take a look at the pitchers next!
Blue in SK - Tuesday, July 15 2008 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#188920) #
Replace Mench or Wilkerson with Sexson (for the league min) and you got your RH DH/1B. When Wells comes back, you have to ask what purpose MacDonald serves. Jays already have the perfect platoon supersubs, and Mench/Wilkerson can be the defensive caddy for Lind plus fill the role of 4th OF. JP has eaten salary before and MacDonald might even have some trade value to a contending team as a late inning defensive specialist...say for example the BoSox (picked them because I read somewhere that Lugo went on the DL). Plus with JMac gone, hopefully JP is forced into finding a SS this offseason, if not prior via a trade. And that's not intended to be a slight to JMac, I love his defense as much as the rest of the fans but his offense is offensive.
Thomas - Tuesday, July 15 2008 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#188921) #
I'd much prefer to see Snider forcing the issue than assuming he will be a contributor in 2009, which is how I read many of these possibilities about the 2009 roster. Snider is very young and isn't destroying AA (he's doing well, especially considering his age), but I think it's better to, assuming he does well in Double-A over the rest of the season, to pencil him in for Syracuse next year and let him prove to us that he's ready for the majors. He's going to be facing enormous expectations and I fear that rushing him might not be the best choice for his career.

Each prospect is different in terms of how quickly they progress and how they are able to adapt to new circumstances and challenges, but Justin Upton was a year younger than Snider and doing far better at Double-A (.955 OPS in 259 at-bats; .973 at A+ over 126 at-bats) when he was promoted to the majors and put up a 62 OPS+ over the rest of 2007 and is only at 102 this year. Of course, that's still quite good considering his age and there's no reason to think right now that Upton's not going to turn into a very good hitter, but one does wonder if a bit more time in the minors might have helped him. Furthermore, Upton had an OPS well over .900 at both levels that year and Snider was 'only' at .890 at Dunedin prior to his promotion.
Thomas - Tuesday, July 15 2008 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#188922) #
However, JP, LaCava and Dick Scott seem to have a reasonably good read on when their prospects are ready to make the jump to the majors. One of the only cases that seems to be a clear mistake in hindsight was the promotion of Adam Peterson (if you want to count Lind this year and a failure to recognize he was ready, that could be another). Also, for the record, I thought Litsch was probably promoted too soon and he was obviously capable of making the jump.
TamRa - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 02:02 AM EDT (#188926) #
Random thoughts...

Project Snider for 2010 and make him prove you wrong;

Always be open to the idea of dealing Overbay in anticipation of crowding in 2010 but don't "run him off";

Thigpen should be converted to 3B if he has no spot in the pecking order as a C, or short of that, some other position...either that or traded. He's 25 and that's to young to label him "failed" based on one season;

Diaz best take care of business because the JPA/BJ combo is dropping heavy footsteps behind him. if Kratz has skills, use him to pad a trade;

Zaun and Eckstien should be traded this month if the have no future here;

Aherns may be passed as a 3B prospect by Sobowitski in a years time, though I still like Aherns;

Campbell seems to me like a potentially Frank Catalonotto type as a player who's bat is too good to sweat his 2B defense;

If Chip Cannon still rates a mention at 1B then why not pay some attention to Brian Dopirick. He's probably a flash in the pan but why not bump him up to AA or even AAA and find out?

I still have a lot of hope for J-Jack. He seems to have finally gotten his stroke back. If he can hit even like a reasonable simile of Tony Fernandez he'll be a wonderful asset....but even so he's likely 3-4 seasons away.


FranklyScarlet - Thursday, July 17 2008 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#188951) #
Here is footage of Travis Snider winning the HR Derby in Manchester last night:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Nd11Wgd0gY





First Half vs Career - Who is doing what - Hitters | 9 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.