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This Day in Baseball 12 July 2008: Here We Are, Still Together
We are one
So much time wasted, playing games with love
So many tears I've cried
So much pain inside

Did anything go wrong in baseball land last night?

- Roy Halladay brings it. Jays 5, Yankees 0, behind a two-hitter from Doc. The Jays pull within three games of New York for third place. Meanwhile, Cliff Lee dumps Tampa and Brian Burres subdues Boston, so the Jays gain a game on everyone above them in the division, though they remain tied for last with the Orioles.

- Unsung hero: Rod Barajas, for his sixth inning alone. With two out in the top and the Jays up 2-0, he catches Bobby Abreu stupidly trying to steal second with the tying run at bat in the person of A-Rod. Then in the bottom, he blasts a solo homer off Joba to extend the lead to 3-0 and basically put the game out of reach. If it wasn't already.

- Cheers to Alex Rios.

- How 'bout Cito plugging Lyle Overbay into the 3-hole in Rios' absence? Overbay responded by going 3-4 with a double.

I think there's a hot streak in Overbay's near future. It looks like he exorcised some kind of clutch gorilla in the ninth inning Thursday, when he came up in a classic Overbay double play situation and tagged a first-pitch curveball from lefty killer George Sherrill for a loud game-tying sac fly instead. It looked to my untrained eye like he'd been pressing for a while as his 1-2-3 double play total ballooned, but I didn't see any signs of Overbay trying too hard last night.

- Kevin Mench was brought in for Adam Lind as a defensive replacement in the eighth inning last night. Any Texas fans or fielding gurus want to weigh in on whether that's something Cito should do regularly when Rios is out?

- A.J. Burnett gets the start tomorrow instead of Charlie Wholestaff. Showcase, maybe? I don't think that's the only reason for doing it, but I do think the Jays are very aware that that's a clear benefit of bringing AJ back so soon. Sure, any team that would change its opinion of Burnett based on seven strong innings and a W is stupid, but GMs have been impulsive before.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to seeing how the bullpens are handled. Two-inning save, anyone? I'm hoping to see a quick hook and lots of platoon matchery, and maybe a two-inning appearance from Scott Downs if he doesn't show up today, but since AJ's trade value is in play, I'm not holding my breath.

- And today, it's Jesse Litsch against Darrell Rasner at 1:07. The Doodlebops will be there.
Posted by Alex Obal on Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 09:09 AM EDT.
12 July 2008: Here We Are, Still Together | 50 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#188788) #
Both Lind and Mench had decent fielding numbers. But, every time I see Lind in the field this year, he is taking a sub-optimal route to the ball at least once per game, and he doesn't have the speed to out-run mistakes. The early numbers for him in 2008 are still pretty good, but frankly I doubt their accuracy. Sample size warnings abound.




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Magpie - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#188789) #
I really enjoyed this. From last night's Orioles-Red Sox game, this is Julio Lugo grounding out in the second inning:

Photobucket

Would you like to see that again? I know I would.


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Chuck - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#188790) #

I've always felt that the same "close enough" mentality that home plate umpires employ when calling strikes is also routinely employed by base umpires. The blown Lugo call is absurd beyond belief.

[sarcasm] Gotta love that human element. [/sarcasm]

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jgadfly - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#188791) #
"A.J. Burnett gets the start tomorrow..." ...  If Burnett gets 6 K's he'll be leading the AL in strikeouts... In his last 12 starts Halladay is 8 & 1 ... where have I been ?
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jerjapan - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#188792) #
Will Caroll at Baseball Prospectus, the best injury-expert I'm aware of, says that McGowan is done for the year and that the Jays know this given his injury history and the nature of the injury.  According to Caroll, he could be out for much of 2009 if he needs surgery, which is a possibility.  Worse still, this kind of injury may repeat itself.

If Riccardi's spinning this to protect his leverage in dealing vets for prospects, I guess I'm okay with this, but if Caroll is right, it does appear that the Jays are pretty dishonest with injury reports.

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Magpie - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#188793) #
it does appear that the Jays are pretty dishonest with injury reports.

At this point, nobody knows. I don't know, you don't know, J.P. Ricciardi doesn't know, and Will Carroll sure as hell doesn't know. Most major league pitchers have some tearing in their shoulder.
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perlhack - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#188794) #
jgadfly, I was about to post about Halladay's post-April performance. Since a loss on May 9, Halladay is 8-1 with a 2.27 ERA, 83.1 IP with 11BB and 74K, and an average game score of 63. Here's a BBref link with the splits. Yeah, I know, selecting an arbitrary cutoff point is useless from a statistical standpoint; this is more for our collective informational fun.
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clark - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#188795) #

I have two thoughts to add today that I found to be of interest.  First of all, I read in The Star that Tony Lacava has been scouting the Phillies' AA team.  I looked that team up, (Reading) and saw a hard hitting shortstop, Jason Donald.   (3rd round pick in 06)  Sounds like an excellent target for the Jays.  Talk about being blocked at the big league level, good luck breaking into that middle infield!

Also, I was checking out the college numbers of David Cooper and decided to compare them to those of Adam Lind.  Their sophmore seasons were remarkably similar, separated by just a few points in BA, and OBP.  Slight edge to Lind in SLG, both had 21 k's, and I believe 30 and 26 walks respectively.  Seems strange to me either that Lind dropped to the third round or that Cooper was picked in the first.

 

 

 

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Magpie - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#188796) #
Seems strange to me either that Lind dropped to the third round or that Cooper was picked in the first.

I wouldn't know (although I'm sure someone else around here would), but the first thing that comes to my mind is there may be a perceived difference in the quality of the competition the two played against in college.
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Rob - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#188797) #
Scutaro is not exactly endearing himself to me here, with an awful error and a headfirst slide into first base, but the real atrocity in this game is Chad Moeller's complete disregard for jersey buttons.
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Helpmates - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#188798) #
I'm hoping, at some point, the organization gets a clue and moves Lind to first, where he belongs.
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Gerry - Saturday, July 12 2008 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#188799) #
Buster Olney, in todays blog, says that the discussions between the Jays and Phillies were brief and went nowhere......for what it's worth.
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jerjapan - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#188803) #
I certainly don't know, that much is for sure.  But Will Carroll is emphatic that quick returns "just don't happen with this type of injury".  This isn't a question of having enough information, it's a question of having the right information, and frankly (and I know BP has been quite anti-Riccardi at times) I'll take Will Caroll's word over anything else I've heard.  I would be extremely surprised if McGowan is back this year, and this Jays regime has shown some willingness to be carefull with their young pitching. 

Then again, I thought there was no chance Ryan would be back so soon ...

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Thomas - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#188804) #
If the Jays win today and get to one game of .500 at the All-Star break, that will be a pretty decent achievement given our record when Cito took over and at the beginning of the week. It's not where the team wanted to be when the season began, but expectations have obviously changed.

On a side note, yesterday's loss was dulled somewhat by the memories of Halladay's gem on Friday. If I could have one wish for the Jays for the next decade, and it couldn't be related to wins and losses or any measurable success in that sense, I think it would almost certainly be that Halladay would retire as a Jay.

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Mike Green - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#188805) #
My morning boxscores tell me that Greg Maddux stole a base last night.  I guess those big cojones don't weigh him down too much.
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ayjackson - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#188806) #
My unprofessional take on Carrol and McGowan is that he is judging the injury on it being characterized as a torn rotator cuff.  I don't think we've heard the Jays characterize it as anything but a tear.  The fact that there is no more damage to the rotator cuff than there was a year ago leads me to believe that the characterization of the injury as a "torn" rotator cuff makes the injury sound worse than it is.  Somehow, saying that Dustin has a tear in his rotator cuff sounds better than saying it is torn.  "Torn" sounds like the worse possible kind of tear, and I'm not sure the Jays have ever talked about it this way.
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Frank Markotich - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#188807) #
If Will Carroll thinks McGowan will be out the rest of the year and maybe 2009, that would encourage me to bet a substantial sum that he'll be back by August.
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timpinder - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#188808) #
"Torn" and "tear" sound the same to me.  Either way, I don't expect to see McGowan throw 200 innings a season over the next few years.  Having had Tommy John surgery and a "torn" rotator cuff (or a "tear" in his rotator cuff, whichever terminology you prefer), doesn't bode well for the future health of a power pitcher who is expected to throw around 100 pitches every 5 days, in my opinion.
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Rob - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#188809) #
Inglett cf
Eckstein dh
Overbay 1b
Barajas c
Mench rf
Rolen 3b
Lind lf
Scutaro 2b
McDonald ss

How in the world does Scott Rolen bat sixth in this lineup?
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China fan - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#188810) #
In defence of Cito's lineup today, Rolen has not been hitting particularly well in the past month or so, and almost everyone above him in today's lineup has been doing better than him in recent weeks.  Mench is the obvious exception, but his career strengths against LHP must have influenced Cito's decision.   And with two doubles today, Mench seems to have justified the decision.   (Of course it's unfair of me to make these comments with the game almost over.....  Retrospective analysis is always easier, I know.)
As for Burnett -- maybe he should always be pitching on three days rest??   Does he perhaps just need a challenge to rise up to? 


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timpinder - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#188811) #

I have a feeling that Burnett just pitched himself out of Toronto.

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westcoast dude - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#188812) #
It would be reprehensible for Ricciardi to move AJ at this point. That isn't to say it won't happen, but it would be a black mark JP would never live down. Maybe that's what Toronto fans want, but that would be so deflating that the team would deserve to wander in the wilderness for 40 years. It ain't over, despite what Wilner says.
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Rob - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#188813) #
Yeah, I understand why Rolen's down. Not really a shot at Cito. Just amazed that Eckstein, Inglett, Barajas, Mench, Ryan Greer, and Andy Fantuz are all apparently above Rolen on the depth chart now.

Another amusing feature of this weekend's lineup: the only regular outfielder was Lind. Good thing they called him up!
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King Ryan - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#188815) #
It would be reprehensible for Ricciardi to move AJ at this point. That isn't to say it won't happen, but it would be a black mark JP would never live down. Maybe that's what Toronto fans want, but that would be so deflating that the team would deserve to wander in the wilderness for 40 years

Why? The Jays have pitching and they need offense.  Trading a strength for a weakness is how you improve a team, in the short-term and the long-term.
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The_Game - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#188816) #

If you can get something worth more than 2 high draft picks, then you trade AJ Burnett.  It's pretty simple at this point.

 

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westcoast dude - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#188817) #

Pitching wins championships, and Burnett leads the league in strikeouts. Dustin is out, Marcum, we hope will be back, because Litsch is a fifth starter, Parrish is a decent #4. There's the rotation, then there's a drop-off into the abyss. Rios will be back for Tampa, Aaron Hill is progressing and Wells will be back sooner rather than later. Where are the holes in the offence? 

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Mylegacy - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#188818) #

Thoughts on Rolen, AJ and the Lindster.

Rolen's done - offensively (defensively he's still a gem). It's obvious his shoulder is so impinged that he can't extend his swing. He's down to a reduced half swing that is painful to watch. Does anyone remember his swing during his pre-screwed -up-shouder days?

AJ - sigh. My only real fear about keeping AJ is that if he doesn't finish as an A free agent we only get one supplemental choice for him, not two. I say trade the dude today after his "once-yearly-look-at-me-ain't-I-a-great-pitcher" game. The guy disrespects his talent, the game and Toronto. It Jessie had AJ's physical talent he'd be Cy Litsch.

The Lind we've been seeing lately is the Lind the Jay's thought they had as he smashed minor league pitching on his way to the bigs. I'd REALLY like to know what - if anything - Cito and Gene have taught him to get his mojo back. As a hitting coach I've always LOVED Cito.

 

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Shane - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#188820) #

Pitching wins championships

and

Where are the holes in the offence? 

Huh? What glasses are you looking through? You made need to start a site of your own, REALLY Drunk Jays Fans.com . Just kidding. But this seems a beyond ridiculous comment.

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The_Game - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#188821) #

Pitching wins championships, and Burnett leads the league in strikeouts. Dustin is out, Marcum, we hope will be back, because Litsch is a fifth starter, Parrish is a decent #4. There's the rotation, then there's a drop-off into the abyss.

AJ Burnett is going to opt out of his contract at the end of the year. You either get 2 draft picks for him, or you trade him for something worth more than that. I'd prefer the latter. There's no point in talking about championships or anything of the sort with this group, as they just aren't good enough.

Aaron Hill is progressing and Wells will be back sooner rather than later. Where are the holes in the offence? 

I'm not exactly sure what team you've been watching this season, but even if all those guys come back this season, they will still struggle to be an average offense in this league.

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The_Game - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#188822) #

Rolen's done - offensively (defensively he's still a gem). It's obvious his shoulder is so impinged that he can't extend his swing. He's down to a reduced half swing that is painful to watch. Does anyone remember his swing during his pre-screwed -up-shouder days?

Rolen had a .851 OPS at the beginning of this month, and now he's done, 13 days later. It reminds me of when Frank Thomas was done 18 days into the season. Where do people come up with this stuff?

AJ - sigh. My only real fear about keeping AJ is that if he doesn't finish as an A free agent we only get one supplemental choice for him, not two. I say trade the dude today after his "once-yearly-look-at-me-ain't-I-a-great-pitcher" game. The guy disrespects his talent, the game and Toronto. It Jessie had AJ's physical talent he'd be Cy Litsch.

As much as he is a "talented bonehead, I've never gotten the sense that he disrespects any of those things.

The Lind we've been seeing lately is the Lind the Jay's thought they had as he smashed minor league pitching on his way to the bigs. I'd REALLY like to know what - if anything - Cito and Gene have taught him to get his mojo back. As a hitting coach I've always LOVED Cito.

Cito didn't do anything. Lind has always been this good.

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westcoast dude - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#188823) #

Trading a strength for a weakness is how you improve a team.

That makes no sense. I'm probably the only commodity trader on this board, and unless you're one of the 4 to 8 big bears in the silver pit, ther'e nothing about trading you can teach me.  As Jim Sinclair says, "This is it. It is now." 

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James W - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#188825) #
How does it make no sense?  If a team has 3 good CF and no good 3B, why doesn't it make sense to trade a CF for a 3B?
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Mylegacy - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#188826) #

The_Game says Rolen's OPS is .851 and so what's the problem. In 02 his OPS was .915, in 03 it was .910, in 04 it was 1.007. Is Rolen ever going to hit 30 homers again? 25? 20 even? Clearly, to me at least, his home run power has fallen dramatically. He can still hit doubles but is a shadow of his old "healthy" self. His swing is - to me - obviously impared. I'm not knocking the 'good" hitter he is, I'm mourning the "terrific" hitter I hoped he might be - if his swing wasn't so clipped. WHICH, brings me to my question in my earlier post - Does anyone remember his swing before he had the shoulder woes?

On AJ, The_Game say's, "I've never gotten the sense that he disrepects any of those things..."  I DO get the sense that he disrepects those things. Agree to disagree?

I agree that the Lind we see now is the REAL Lind. However, I'm CURIOUS if Cito, or Gene had anything to say that got his play/confidence/mojo back to where The_Game and I are now so happy to see it.

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John Northey - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#188828) #
Trading stocks is 100% different from trading ballplayers.

On a ML roster you have a limit of 25 spots, with no more than 9 hitters playing each game and (normally) a rotation of 5 pitchers getting the starts and the bulk of the innings.  You have another 6 or 7 slots for relievers who get various degrees of high and low leverage innings as well plus a bench of 4 to 5 guys.

Each fielding position has various limits.  At shortstop you cannot play Matt Stairs for example unless you really, really want to drive your pitchers insane.  Similar with not putting a left handed fielder at any position other than first base or outfield.  On stocks you do not have these limits, your only limit is financial - how much cash you have.

Thus, if the Jays have 8 starting pitchers of ML quality but no shortstops or catchers (which could happen next year) what do you do?  You do not keep stocking up on pitchers as having 20 high quality ML pitchers will not win many games if no one is catching those pitchers or you are counting on Thigpen to be your everyday catcher.  Instead you trade one or more of those pitchers to get that high quality catcher or shortstop to fill that hole in your lineup.  Also, if you trade AJ and you have a Brett Cecil ready to step in you are shifting from a guy with a 115 potential ERA+ plus injury and attitude issues for a rookie who might only put up a 90-100 this year (or could be like Litsch last year and hit 117) but has nowhere near the injury issues and almost definitely will not have the attitude.

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subculture - Sunday, July 13 2008 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#188829) #
Don't really think trading commodities is that relevant to this discussion.  The same way that a fantasy baseball guru might have the necessary intelligence, but nowhere near the experience, context, and connections required to trade commodities.

I gotta agree that the chances of the Jays making the playoffs are less than 10%.  In which case, I'd like to see the team trade pretty much anybody that is going to bring in high-level prospects, like what Florida and Oakland seem to do very well (and they rebound pretty quickly into competitive teams).

I'd think Burnett, Ryan, Downs (or any of the lefty relievers we have), Stairs, Eckstein, Scutaro, and J-Mac are all no-brainers, and could bring a useful prospect(s) back.  Obviously J-Mac doesn't have a ton of trade value, but could be very useful to a contending team (like a Royce Clayton ++ on the winning Red Sox roster). 

I'd also trade Wells and Rios, if we could get good value for them.  And though I'd hate to see him go, imagine what Roy Halladay could bring?  Maybe the next Hanley Ramirez?  How about for Joba and a hitting prospect?  Evan Longoria?  Tulowitski and Hawpe?

My feeling though is that JP is not great at, a) networking the other GMs and fully exploring trade options, and b) once he's identified a trading partner, extracting the maximum value.

There are some exceptions to this (Hillenbrand/Chulk for Accardo was a great move), but most of his trades are even at best, and usually not in our favour.

I think JP has gotten much better at signing and negotiating with free agents.... so maybe he'll surprise us here and bring back some great talent for the guys we won't need for a couple of years.

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The_Game - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#188831) #

The_Game says Rolen's OPS is .851 and so what's the problem. In 02 his OPS was .915, in 03 it was .910, in 04 it was 1.007. Is Rolen ever going to hit 30 homers again? 25? 20 even? Clearly, to me at least, his home run power has fallen dramatically. He can still hit doubles but is a shadow of his old "healthy" self. His swing is - to me - obviously impared. I'm not knocking the 'good" hitter he is, I'm mourning the "terrific" hitter I hoped he might be - if his swing wasn't so clipped. WHICH, brings me to my question in my earlier post - Does anyone remember his swing before he had the shoulder woes?

You said the guy was done. If you said that he was in decline, I wouldn't have disagreed with you.

On AJ, The_Game say's, "I've never gotten the sense that he disrepects any of those things..."  I DO get the sense that he disrepects those things. Agree to disagree?

No, you're going to have to explain how and when he's ever disrespected his talent, himself, and the city of Toronto.

I agree that the Lind we see now is the REAL Lind. However, I'm CURIOUS if Cito, or Gene had anything to say that got his play/confidence/mojo back to where The_Game and I are now so happy to see it.

All he did was carry on his play from the minors to the majors. If he was given a long enough chance in April, he would have done the same thing.

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The_Game - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 12:56 AM EDT (#188832) #

Also...I don't see how trading Roy Halladay would achieve anything. They are planning to contend in the next few years, and considering that, they need Doc.

You don't trade away the best pitcher in baseball and actually win that trade, really no matter what you get.

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King Ryan - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 02:14 AM EDT (#188833) #
"That makes no sense. I'm probably the only commodity trader on this board, and unless you're one of the 4 to 8 big bears in the silver pit, ther'e nothing about trading you can teach me."

I really have nothing to add that hasn't already been said, but I just wanted to commend you on this, as it's the funniest thing I have ever read on this website, and I've been reading for over 5 years!  Kudos.
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Thomas - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 06:54 AM EDT (#188834) #
Cito didn't do anything. Lind has always been this good.

I'm going to disagree with you here. Lind has always been very talented, but he does look much more comfortable now than he looked in his earlier stint with the team this season and possibly going back to 2007, as well. Now, I don't know precisely why this is, but it seems likely Lind has been helped by the fact he's clearly the everyday left fielder going forward and that's given him a comfort zone he didn't have previously.

However, Lind also looks like a better hitter now than he did previously and why that is, I can't really say. But nor can you and I think it's wrong to totally dismiss the influence of Cito and Tenace as it is to blindly ascribe his success to their presence. The fact is, without hanging around the clubhouse day in and day out, we have no idea what Cito's been teaching and not teaching Lind and how his presence may have affected him. Cito's not the messiah, but if there's any two players that you would have singled out that could be benefit the most by his presence it would have likely been Lind and Rios, both relatively young hitters who were struggling and not duplicating the success they have had earlier (in the minors for Lind, Rios' 2006/2007). Both were better hitters than they showed this season, so you could say they were due for a turnaround (Rios has an .854 OPS since Cito's arrival), but I don't think you can completely dismiss the fact it's coincided largely with Cito's arrival, either.
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Thomas - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 07:22 AM EDT (#188835) #
(Rios has an .854 OPS since Cito's arrival)

Just for accuracy's sake, I think it's .876, as I think I missed the day Cito arrived by one.
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jerjapan - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#188837) #
Re:  Will Carrol

Some skepticism expressed about Will Carrol's expertise - would anyone care to elaborate on why they feel he's not always a compelling source? 

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subculture - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#188839) #
You don't trade away the best pitcher in baseball and actually win that trade, really no matter what you get.

I think that's an emotional statement (which I can very much agree with), but not a logical one.  What if you got the best 2 prospects in baseball, and a current star?  What if theoretically you replaced him with a younger potential ace (let's say Joba, or a younger version of Doc), a SS like Tulowitski, and a slugging 1b type (like getting Prince Fielder, instead of Overbay) ?

That would not only allow you to trade Overbay and your 3-headed SS, but would suddenly give you a batting lineup that could compete in this division next year.

How could you NOT do this trade?  Especially if you want to give the younger arms like Purcey a chance...

I'm not of course suggesting this trade is out there and easy to make.... just that it obviously matters greatly what you'd get for Roy, to consider trading him.  And his trade value may never be this high again...  if you could significantly better the roster by trading the other parts I mentioned (Burnett, Ryan, etc..) then keeping Roy would be preferred.  But if you're only going to have another decent team, that still won't win even with Roy... what's the point?

The other point I'd suggest is that while Roy is AWESOME, you can't state that he's definitely the 'best pitcher in baseball', when you've got guys like Johan Santana around.  It's enough to say Roy's one of the best, or top 5 in most books.
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The_Game - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#188843) #

Well if some team would offer 3 players like that (though how many teams even have 3 players like that), I'm not sure you could really refuse.

 

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John Northey - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#188844) #
Trading a guy like Roy would be tough.  Two trades that come to mind of a star being traded for prospects that worked in interesting ways are from the 80's (yeah, I'm old).

Offseason trade winter of 1984/1985...
Gary Carter from the Expos to the Mets for Hubie Brooks, Mike Fitzgerald, Herm Winningham, and Floyd Youmans
Brooks was an all-star at shortstop for the Expos in 2 of the first 3 years after the trade although defensively he belonged in the outfield.
Fitzgerald was a solid catcher (4 of the next 5 years he was above 100 in OPS+) but nothing amazing with a peak of 111 games played.
Winningham was a CF who had speed and defense and that was about it (74 OPS+ lifetime)
Youmans was a starting pitcher with the million dollar arm and 10 cent head, Gooden's cousin.  Came out of the gate with a 139 ERA+ year one, then 105, 91, 112, 62 and out of MLB.

In season trade 1989...
Mark Langston from the Mariners to the Expos for Randy Johnson, Brian Holman, and Gene Harris
Langston had a good 1/2 year for the Expos, but couldn't push them into the playoffs.
Randy Johnson went on to become a HOF'er
Holman was a solid starter for the Mariners and had a 118 ERA+ for 1989 with Seattle, then a 98 and 111 over 28 and 30 starts then his career ended suddenly at 26 due to an injury I'd assume.
Harris was a poor reliever who threw 241 IP despite an ERA+ of 86 lifetime.

If the Jays could find a team like the Expos were in 1989 - on edge and determined to make it no matter what - and get a package like that it'd be great.  However, the risks are very high that instead of a Johnson you'd end up with a Youmans. 

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Anders - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#188849) #
Some skepticism expressed about Will Carrol's expertise - would anyone care to elaborate on why they feel he's not always a compelling source?

Just a guess, but I think that it's because Carroll is saying that McGowan is done for the year when he doesn't have any access to McGowan's medical records is the reason...
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Magpie - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#188852) #
Some skepticism expressed about Will Carrol's expertise - would anyone care to elaborate on why they feel he's not always a compelling source?

A couple of months back, I read him asserting that "studies have shown" that a properly thrown slider was not harder on the arm than a fastball. That's interesting, I thought. He provided links. I actually clicked on them. They asserted no such thing, and it was quite impossible to interpret them as asserting such a thing.

I really wish he hadn't done that, because I have no doubt he knows more about injuries than I do. But now every time he says something my BS Detector automatically goes off. Which is a shame.

He could be right, McGowan could be done for the year. But I have to wait and see.
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Chuck - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#188861) #

To me, Will Carroll is the black sheep of the BP family. He is not especially insightful on the analysis front, yet BP allows him to serve as a prominent public voice for the franchise. He seems knowledgeable about injuries but speaks with so much confidence and and assuredness on a subject matter that is replete with doubt, that one can't help but be skeptical.

I happen to believe that we have seen the last of McGowan this year, but this is based on nothing more than this being the "typical" result from McGowan's "type" of injury. There's no science involved in my gut feeling. I can't help but think that Will Carroll's position on McGowan is also based on experience, intuition and little else.

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Mike Green - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#188862) #
The question of whether McGowan is done for the year seems to me to be less important than the medium term one.  What exactly is the appropriate course to deal with a young pitcher who has had TJ and then a small rotator cuff tear and shoulder pain, assuming that the tear will not be surgically repaired because of its size?

I am encouraged by the organization's approach to Aaron Hill's injury.  The view that extent of recovery is more important than speed of recovery is perhaps taking hold. 

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jerjapan - Monday, July 14 2008 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#188863) #
Interesting to hear those critiques ... I've always enjoyed Will Caroll's analysis and been impressed by his knowledge, but I haven't paid close enough attention to see how often he's actually correct.  One thing I do quite admire about him, and like Mike points out it's heartening to see with the Jays, is the focus on proper recovery from injury (or injury avoidance, for that matter) for young players - the Aaron Hill injury appears to have been dealt with well. 

That said, has the Jays rash of injuries simply been dumb luck?

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Magpie - Tuesday, July 15 2008 @ 06:01 AM EDT (#188878) #
Yeah, I'm kind of with Chuck here - I think Carroll draws his conclusions a bit too readily, a bit too firmly, in areas where much is dark and mysterious. I don't think he was actually trying to bamboozle anyone - after all, if you provide the links, you're expecting people to click on them. I think, in the case I'm remembering, he just saw more than was actually there. And because he expresses his views with so much confidence and certainty, there's a real tendency for more to be asserted than can reasonably be justified.  I too approve and appreciate how much he talks about maintenance and prevention, and the role of the team's training staff. He probably gives them more credit than they deserve, but seeing as how hardly anyone else even gives them any attention at all (never mind credit for a team's success), I don't mind seeing him right the balance a little.
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