Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

TDIB 10 July 2008

3 shortstops + 2 catchers = 9 runs. Who knew?

Jays pip the O's 9-8. This one started off quietly and then all hell broke lose in the middle Innings. A.J was kind enough to give any watching scouts a good luck at good A.J and bad A.J, he cruised through five and then it all fell apart for him in the sixth, with seven Orioles coming to the plate Burnett got just one of them out - giving up six runs - before Cito lifted him for Killer Carlson. Luckily the Jays had had their own big inning a little earlier, getting to Olson for seven in the fourth. The Jays hung on, and got what was utlimately a big break when a phantom tag by Barajas on Huff on a play at the plate was ruled an out.

Wednesdays with JP highlights (I missed the early stages):

* Continues to defend the club - 'go talk to the scouts who come to watch us...nobody around baseball thought this was a last place team'.

* McGowan has a tear in his shoulder 'in the cuff area', they will let it calm down then the doctor will look at it, hopefully it won't require surgery, but that's not known yet. A lot of pitchers have tears and play with them or successfully rehab them, surgery is not a given it all depends on how serious it is.

* Charlie Wholestaff is likely to start on Sunday, it might be Purcey if they can bring him up and keep him up for a while. (Sounds like if they know before Sunday that McGowan will be going on the DL then Purcey will come up and stay up for a while, if McGowan isn't going on the DL then they're not going to bring Purcey up for a day and send him straight back down).

* Matt Stairs will play all nine positions today

* Young players are in vogue, he hear's 'untouchable' more about prospects than established major leaguers than he used to from other GMs.

* Off the cuff comment about the A's-Cubs trade - Beane 'values the control of Gallacher over anything else...can only control Harden for another yea has control over Gallacher for six years.'

Game Day: Guthrie against Parrish. 7:07PM EST

Posted by Gwyn on Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 10:52 PM EDT.

TDIB 10 July 2008 | 75 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Gerry - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#188640) #

Burnett is not value-less. Pitching is a scarce commodity and teams will overpay for pitching.

Carlos Silva - $48 million over 4 years with two of the last three years having an ERA over 5

Jeff Suppan - $42 mil over 4 years with a 4.50 ERA in the NL

Gil Meche - $55 mil over 5 years with one good season before that

Kenny Rogers and Tom Glavine get $8 mil a year for uncertain performance.

Not to forget Barry Zito.

People like to say Burnett's contract is a millstone because of the two back years, but if it is a millstone why would Burnett opt out? Burnett will opt out because some GM will love his "stuff" and his "potential", as the Jays did, and will give him a three or four year deal at $14 mil per year. Similarly some other GM will reckon Burnett is better than some 30 year old journeyman with a 4.50 ERA in AAA and will trade for him to hopefully win and keep his owner happy.

Burnett has value. How much is the question.

Glevin - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#188643) #

"Burnett will opt out because some GM will love his "stuff" and his "potential", as the Jays did, and will give him a three or four year deal at $14 mil per year. "

If he keeps this up, that won't happen. He has been atrocious this year. a 5.23 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP will not get you 14 milion a year especially when he has a pretty mediocre past to fall back on. Anyway, you can't compare free agents to clubs giving up prospects in a deal. The Jays may yet get something for Burnett, but he's killing his trade value every start he makes.

timpinder - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#188644) #

If McGowan needs surgery and Burnett is traded, I think that a full-scale rebuild might be in order. Ryan, Overbay, Stairs, Zaun, Barajas, Eckstein, Frasor, Tallet and Rolen should all be shopped. With the bats the Jays have, I don't see this team competing in 2009 or 2010 with Halladay, Marcum, Litsch and Purcey leading the rotation. I'm hoping for a mega-trade with Burnett, Eckstein and Rolen filling the Dodgers' needs for a group of prospects including LaRoche (still love him) and Hu. The approaching trade deadline is the most excited I've been since May, and that's not a good thing.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#188645) #

Matt Stairs will play all nine positions today

Really? I love gimmicky stuff like that. Stairs has caught previously, has he not? That's usually the one position that is most challenging in this situation. Though picturing Stairs in the middle infield or in CF is a bit harder than him in shinguards and a facemask!

What are the details on this? If this is really happning, I think it merits its own Matt Stairs, Multi-Talented Athlete thread during the game!

China fan - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#188646) #

Tim, you didn't mention McGowan in the rotation for 2009-10 -- just an oversight I hope? The Jays have a very strong rotation for the foreseeable future, and this is the basis of my optimism. When Burnett is inevitably traded or leaves, he will be replaced by Cecil, Parrish or Purcey. Five strong starters, one of the best staffs in baseball, is a very strong base to build on. Improvements from Wells, Rolen, Hill, Overbay, Rios and Lind are likely to help the lineup in 2009. Even if just three of those guys can return to form, the offence will improve. Snider will help, perhaps as early as 2009. There's no reason to blow up this team, in my opinion.

King Ryan - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#188648) #

I assumed that the Stairs thing was some kind of inside joke that I didn't get.

If there were a player on the team to play all 9 positions I would assume it to be Inglett. Stairs at SS is hard to fathom.

Magpie - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 01:07 AM EDT (#188651) #

Carlos Silva - $48 million over 4 years with two of the last three years having an ERA over 5

Jeff Suppan - $42 mil over 4 years with a 4.50 ERA in the NL

Gil Meche - $55 mil over 5 years with one good season before that

Kenny Rogers and Tom Glavine get $8 mil a year for uncertain performance.

Not to forget Barry Zito.

Betting that the future will resemble the past is generally a pretty good policy. But don't you look at those names and those numbers and wonder why on earth anyone would be throwing any serious money at all at any pitcher who doesn't look like a real good bet to start the next All Star Game?

Someone probably will, true. But every now and then, baseball's GMs collectively get struck, as if by lightning, by good and sensible judgement. It becomes a fad, however briefly and fleetingly. It will surely pass, but in the meantime....

Jdog - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 01:09 AM EDT (#188652) #

The Stairs thing was from WWJP, a fellow maritimer called in and told JP how great Stairs is and then mentioned that BJ Ryan was horrible and they should try Stairs on the mound.

timpinder - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 02:17 AM EDT (#188653) #

China Fan, omitting McGowan's name wasn't an accident. Perhaps torn labrums are worse, but I'd bet that a power pitcher who's had both Tommy John surgery and surgery for a rotator cuff tear will always have arm problems. Besides, if it's a full tear and requires surgery, McGowan probably wouldn't be ready to start the 2009 season. My understanding is that recovery for a full tear usually takes close to a year.

seeyou - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 05:03 AM EDT (#188656) #

Didn't catch the game tonight, but heard from a friend that Wells injured his leg. Anyone have an idea how serious the injury is? The next month is going to be less than fun if Marcum, McGowan and Wells all miss significant time.

China fan - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 05:18 AM EDT (#188657) #

The Wells injury was a minor one. In today's edition, the Star reports this: "Wells was pulled in the seventh after coming up lame while stealing third base. The team was calling the injury a 'cramp' afterward. Wells is expected to play today, but 'he's going to be sore,' manager Cito Gaston guessed."

The_Game - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 06:29 AM EDT (#188658) #

Timpinder, nobody here has any idea about how long McGowan will be out at this point, so it is absolutely pointless to speculate on the topic. Next season is a whole 9 months away, that's a long, long time.

And Burnett is going to get paid a lot in free agency, whether he has a 5 ERA (which he won't) at the end or not.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#188664) #

Assuming a pitcher's health, particularly one who has had TJ surgery, is not a good idea. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Burnett has a couple of so-so or rough outings after the All-Star break, and ends up on the DL. In which case, he probably won't opt out, and his trade value will be negligible. The other possibility is that he looks good in a start or two after the All-Star break, and he does have significant trade value.

With last night's outing, the chances that he remains in Toronto have increased.

Chuck - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#188665) #

McGowan has a tear in his shoulder 'in the cuff area',

If this is accurate, I'd be surprised if we haven't seen the last of McGowan for the season.

ayjackson - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#188668) #

I see everybody's throwing around ERA stats to prove how bad AJ has been this season. I thought at least MG would have pointed out by now that AJ's FIP for the year is 3.59, which is slightly better than his career FIP of 3.79. AJ's career ERA is 3.90, so it's not like he's made a habit of underperforming (his FIP).

I think FIP should be a better predictor of future performance than ERA, though I have no idea if Minaya, Cashman, Mozeliak, MacPhail and the likes feel the same way.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#188669) #

Burnett has over his career had a significantly higher ERA than FIP, due to his difficulty in holding runners and consequent less overpowering performance with runners on base. That said, his FIP/ERA mark of the last 3 years in the 4-4.25 range would be a reasonable expectation for him, if he is in good health. The issue is that an ERA of 4.15 (say) and 150 innings pitched may or may not be worth $12 million/year. It is on the margins, particularly with the health and personality issues.

Chuck - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#188670) #

Matt Stairs will play all nine positions today

Really? I love gimmicky stuff like that.

Mick, Ricciardi was just joking around. A caller from the east coast was saying, tongue in cheek, that BJ Ryan stinks and that Matt Stairs (a New Brunswicker) was the best player on the team and could do it all, including pitching. Ricciardi responded in the same vein of seriousness.

Glevin - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#188674) #

"When Burnett is inevitably traded or leaves, he will be replaced by Cecil, Parrish or Purcey. Five strong starters, one of the best staffs in baseball, is a very strong base to build on. Improvements from Wells, Rolen, Hill, Overbay, Rios and Lind are likely to help the lineup in 2009. "

That's Halladay and Marcum as strong starters, McGowen as a potential one if he can get over his injury problems, and Litsch and the new starters as unknowns. (I am far from sold on Litsch as a "strong starter") That's a decent base, but it would hardly put the Jays among the best staffs in baseball. I really do think the Jays could rip the Dodgers off. The new GM was apparently (a big if) dangling Matt Kemp in a deal for Jack Wilson and the Dodgers clearly don't like Laroche as they never play him despite vastly greater skills than DeWtit. (Who has OPS of 4.72 and .633 over the last 2 months but Laroche still can't find any ABs).

robertdudek - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#188677) #

I wish people would stop making off-the-cuff remarks about AJ being a mediocre pitcher during his career. A close look at the number reveals that he has been solidly above average for a starter for most of his career. It does us all a disservice to use a word with pejorative connotations in the present day (i.e "mediocre") and associate it with a pitcher with his track record.

That said, AJ has the raw tools to be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. But he is missing a few key ingredients. He loses command of his fastball. Hitters can sit on one quadrant of the plate looking dead red, even AJ's fastball becomes very hittable. That wouldn't be a huge problem if AJ could drop the curve in for a strike. But he often loses command of both pitches at the same time. That's what happened in the 6th inning: the Orioles started laying off the curve entirely while AJ suddenly was not able to throw it for a strike. His slider is a pitch the finishes outside the zone - the Orioles started to lay off these as well. They just waited for the grooved fastball.

Matthew E - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#188679) #

I thought the Stairs thing had him playing all nine positions *at once*, like Bugs Bunny.

That'd be cool.

Original Ryan - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#188681) #

I thought the Stairs thing had him playing all nine positions *at once*, like Bugs Bunny.

And George Steinbrenner.

Pistol - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#188682) #

Will Carrol, while acknowledging the team has said it might be a month, says that McGowan is out for the year with a torn rotator cuff.

Glevin - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#188683) #

The Globe reports that the Phillies and Dodgers are suiters for Burnett and lists a whole bunch of prospects the Jays are interested in.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080710.WBbaseball20080710130217/WBStory/WBbaseball/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20080710.WBbaseball20080710130217

The Mariners released Sexson but not Vidro who is probably now the worst middle-of the lineup hitter in the history of baseball. His adjusted OPS is now 58 which is worse than Rey Ordonez' lifetime mark. It's impossible to understand why a) The Mariners play him at all B) If they feel they have to play him, why bat him third of 4th every game?

Mike Green - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#188684) #

Sexson can still mash a lefty, and I imagine that somebody could use him at the league minimum.

seeyou - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#188685) #

Lots of new stuff up on the Blair blog. He says the Jays are heavily scouting the Phillies minor league ranks, and also the Dodgers. Specifically mentions five Phils that the Jays seem to be interested in, including SS Jason Donald. Also, quotes from J.P. that McGowan's injury won't significantly affect how they deal with Burnett at the deadline. Really sounds like J.P. is intent on trading A.J. this year.

Thomas - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#188686) #

This was an interesting tidbit from the Blair update:

But the Dodgers are the most difficult organization in baseball with which to strike a deal.

Gerry - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#188687) #

Blair notes that Burnett's contract is below market value given the absurd salaries for pitchers. This echoes Robert and my comments above.

I have heard radio talk over the last few days that the Dodgers could have acquired both Sabathia and Harden but that their owner nixed the deals. That is what is behind the Dodger comment.

RockyPebbles - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#188688) #

Another player the Jays should look at is Adrian Cardenas from the Phillies who may be younger than Donald, but could be the better player.

Blue in SK - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#188689) #

If you can pick up Sexson for the league min he would make a lot of sense as the RH portion of the DH platoon. It drives me crazy to see Eckstein as a DH lately. You can't use Barajas since you need a back up, catcher so apparently Eckstein is the best RH hitter the Jays have available. Now, I understand that Scrappy Doo is hitting decent since he came back from injury but still you may as well release Wilkerson since he has no purpose unless you consider coming in for Lind as a defensive replacement more important than a RH DH.

ayjackson - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#188690) #

Ryan Patterson and David Smith make more sense as DH platoons and defensive replacements for Lind than Sexson for a team out of contention like the Jays.

Blue in SK - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#188691) #

Anyone is fine by me as long as it isn't Eckstein. If JP has any faith in the kids you suggest, I say bring one of them on up.

John Northey - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#188693) #

With the Phillies you have...
Donald: AA shortstop: 23 years old: 298/388/491 with OPS by level of A- 709, A 856 A+ 877 and AA 879. If his defense is solid he looks well worth getting
Cardenas: A+ shortstop: 20 years old: 313/381/469 with OPS by level of Rk 826, A 771, A+ 850. Again, well worth grabbing if available.

Philly looks like a good match, as odds are one of those two would be available and would instantly be the Jays best SS prospect by a large margin. Given Gillick intends to retire after this year he might just go for it, as what good are SS's who won't be around for a few years when he definitely won't be around to enjoy the spoils.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#188696) #

Here's a link with a scouting report and video on Donald and Cardenas. There are apparently questions about whether each is suited to being a major league shortstop.

FisherCat - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#188697) #

milb.com has Cardenas listed as a 2B'man and he has been there the last 2 games vs Dunedin. Donald is listed at SS and has played there in the last few games.

Both have good LH/RH splits and have been consistant thru each advancement. Pull the trigger JP...

John Northey - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#188698) #

Interesting link Mike. It looks like Donald could be a SS at first then moved to third possibly. Will his bat be enough at third? At SS it looks good and if he could man it for 2009 and 2010 then third opens up as Rolen becomes a free agent then he could be just right for the Jays (AA to majors next year should be doable).

Jays would want more, obviously, but I'd certainly want Donald as part of a deal with Philly.

Thomas - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#188699) #

I have heard radio talk over the last few days that the Dodgers could have acquired both Sabathia and Harden but that their owner nixed the deals. That is what is behind the Dodger comment.

Thanks Gerry. I hadn't heard that. I don't suppose they mentioned what the Dodgers were supposed to have given up?

seeyou - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#188700) #

One Phillie I'd like to see the Jays go after is J.A. Happ. I saw him pitch in an Ottawa Lynx game last year and was impressed with his stuff. He's a big, tall 25 year old lefty with a low 90s fastball, big curve and slider. His numbers from last year don't look that great, but I think that's more a reflection of how crappy the Lynx were. He looked good in AAA early this season, and has now had two impressive starts in the big leagues so far this year.

In my mind, with McGowan's injury, if we're going to trade A.J. it'd be good to get a pitcher back who could jump right into the rotation for the rest of the season. I'd really like to see a lefty become a fixture within our rotation as well.

I'd be very satisfied with a package centered around Happ and Donald for A.J. Plus, trading A.J. for J.A. is just cool.

ayjackson - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#188702) #

Would the Jays send Lacava (Assistant GM) to watch Reading if they hadn't had any discussions with the Phillies? Why does he get the Phillies' system and why AA? Who gets the Mets', Yankees', Cardinals', Dodgers' and all other potential trade partners' affiliates?

C'mon Gillick, do it.

Smithers - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#188703) #

Hadn't seen it linked to yet, but apparently Wells's injury last night was indeed more serious that originally reported - he's going to be out 4-6 weeks according to Sportsnet, with a Grade 2 strain of his left hamstring.

Not quite as bad as Orlando Hudson hurting himself on a home run trot, but geez, there wasn't even a throw to third on that sac fly last night that Vernon hurt himself on.

92-93 - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#188704) #

Who is going to replace him? Lydon has a .400 OBP against RHP this year for Syracuse and seems to be a tremendously efficient base stealer, so I wouldn't mind seeing him in RF and leading off vs. RHP. What I shudder to think of is Wilkerson playing every day again - there's just zero reason for it. I'd rather watch Russ Adams fail out there than him.

seeyou - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#188705) #

I imagine Rios will move over to CF and we'll see someone like Buck Coats or Kevin Mench called up to platoon with Lind/Wilkerson on the corners. Ugh. The schedule over the next month and a half looked scary enough as it was, now we've got to face it without Wells, McGowan and potentially Marcum.

Glevin - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#188706) #

Wilkerson... ugh. (Why do they have to hit Lind 9th even with Wilkerson in the lineup? If you need your young guys to get ABs, get them more ABs rather than fewer and therre's not exactly loads of pressure in the 7th spot. I don't think Snider should be an option until next year. No point starting his service time in order to rush him from AA. I love him long term, but his 115/35 K/BB ratio so far could definitely use some more work. I think this would be the time to scower AAA and the end of major league benches for unwanted players. J.P.'s favourite trading partners, the A's, now have Sweeney, Gonzalez, Brown, Davis, Buck, Cust, Murton, and Denorfio who are all OFers. Obviously, a bunch of those guys would cost too much, but they just have too many players right now.

Thomas - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#188707) #

Not quite as bad as Orlando Hudson hurting himself on a home run trot, but geez, there wasn't even a throw to third on that sac fly last night that Vernon hurt himself on.

The thought is that the lack of a throw on the stolen base is actually what's behind the injury, as Vernon slowed down from running at full speed and that is likely what caused the knee problem, as he was clutching the knee as soon as he was safe at third.

ayjackson - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#188708) #

It looked to me that he broke stride a bit just a third of the way off second base - that's when I think he felt something.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#188711) #

Apparently, the club's doctor is of the view that McGowan's tear has not increased in size since last year and so surgery is unlikely.

westcoast dude - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#188715) #

Two walkoff wins in the sweep, I'd say something has definitely changed since Cito arrived. Adam Lind is a big part of it, Rios in CF can't be discounted, either. There's magic in the air, and the warm caress of Lady Luck. It ain't over. Gaston is a genius.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#188716) #

Old friend Dave Bush regained some magic too, striking out 13 in a Brewer rout.

scottt - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#188717) #

(Why do they have to hit Lind 9th even with Wilkerson in the lineup? If you need your young guys to get ABs, get them more ABs rather than fewer and therre's not exactly loads of pressure in the 7th spot.

Better a starting job batting 9th than a backup job batting 7th.

Note that nobody got more plate appearances than Lind anyway and that he scored 2 runs because he was batting directly in front of 2 good contact hitters. Batting 7th, he might have been left on base. Would be nice to have him mashing 6th ahead of Overbay who doesn't have much power these days, but until that happens, 9th is fine.

That's another quality start from Parrish.

King Ryan - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#188718) #

Lind now hitting .320 since his call up.

Memories of Shannon Stewart fading ... fading...

Ron - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#188721) #

I'm looking over Jason Donald's bio in BP 08 and it says he has good hands and a terrific arm. But it didn't address the most important question, does Donald have a passion for baseball?

The_Game - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#188722) #

Note that nobody got more plate appearances than Lind anyway and that he scored 2 runs because he was batting directly in front of 2 good contact hitters. Batting 7th, he might have been left on base. Would be nice to have him mashing 6th ahead of Overbay who doesn't have much power these days, but until that happens, 9th is fine.

I've never seen Wilkerson as a contact guy. Maybe it was the strikeouts.

And I'm sorry, but there's no way Lind should be batting #9. Outside of possibly the good power version of Rios and maybe Rolen, Lind is the best hitter on this team.

Gerry - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#188724) #

According to Wilner Kevin Mench will replace Vernon tomorrow.

phuturephillies - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#188725) #

Hey everyone, my name is James and I'm the "brains" behind phuturephillies.com. I saw this site pop up in my list of sites that have linked my stuff, so I popped in and read up, and figured I'd answer questions you might have about names being mentioned. While I'm certainly intrigued by Burnett, my preference is Bedard at this point, though I suppose it all depends on the asking price for both guys. The two guys mentioned by "Mike Green" were Jason Donald and Adrian Cardenas. Here is a brief update on both;

Donald - Really turned it on last year, especially after being promoted to the FSL. Was a big time recruit out of high school, reportedly turned down around 800K to sign for the Angels, and then never really developed in college like scouts thought he would. Since being drafted, the knock has been "good hitter, won't stick at SS, likely a very good utility guy", but his bat has really kicked it into gear, and his adjustment to AA has been a welcome surprise to most Phillies fans. We're locked up at 2B and SS for the time being, though there is talk Utley could possibly move to 1B if need be, though hes above average defensively. Donald hasn't moved off SS yet, there has been talk about 3B, but no one is really sure if he has the hands/reactions to play 3B. The big knock on him at SS is his range, though it seems likely he could handle 3B defensively, some wonder if his bat will play up there. He's like a .280/.350/.450 type hitter, thats not ideal for 3B, but I think in a good lineup that will play. His arm was considered his best tool in college, so I think he'd be ok at 3B in that regard.

Cardenas - I had him at the top of my Top 30 heading into this season, and I think he's #1 or #2 (behind catcher Lou Marson) in our system at this point. He has an .850 OPS in the hitter friendly FSL, though he missed some time with a minor back injury (nothing serious) and it may be the reason his power has kind of fallen off after a big May. He had a nice full season debut in A- last year, skipping over the short season NYPL, and is still young for the FSL. Again, he's blocked at 2B by Utley for now, and there isn't really talk of moving him to 3B because he doesn't have a very strong arm. That means his backup plan in Philly is LF, and again, will the bat play there? Reviews on his defense at 2B are mixed, some say average, some say a bit better. He's proven he can hit for average, he doesn't strike out a lot, decent plate discipline, future power yet to be determined. He flashed the power in May, as I mentioned above, he hasn't shown the same in the last 6 weeks, possibly due to the minor injury, but he can flat out hit.

As for Happ, who another poster mentioned. He had injury trouble in 2005, he was healthy in 2006, and he was nursing minor injuries last season, which affected his control. He gets in trouble when he walks guys, and for a guy without overpowering stuff, he pitches up in the zone, which is less than ideal. Fastball is 87-90, he's real tall and has a little deception, but as I mentioned, he works up in the zone a lot, which leads to home runs. His out pitch is his changeup, 77-79, good late movement, when he locates it its a swing and miss pitch. When he misses (like most guys who rely on a changeup as their out pitch), it goes a long way. He could struggle in our park because of that, but in a more pitcher neutral environment, he'll get away with a few mistakes. Good mound presence, good composure, but realistically he's a #4/5 starter. He's already 25, so not much projection left there.

If any other players get linked and you're curious, I'll try and check back in over the next few days. Cheers.

- James.

robertdudek - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#188726) #

Hi James, and welcome aboard.

Any thoughts on Golson?

Flex - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#188727) #

Good of you to drop by, James. That's great insight.

phuturephillies - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#188728) #

Ahhh, Greg Golson. He's really been behind the 8 ball for lots of Phillies fans since the day he was drafted. Lots of Phillies fans, the ones that care about the draft at least, wanted Phil Hughes and not Golson on draft day, and its been all downhill since. His package of tools is unparalleled in our system. He can hit for power, he can run like the wind, he could play CF defensively in the majors tomorrow, but he has one massive flaw; he can't identify breaking balls. He started off the season drawing walks, and was on pace for a career high by a wide margin, but after the first 6 weeks of the season, he reverted back to his old ways. He basically is up there looking to swing at all times. When he hits it, he's capable of launching it out of the park to all fields, but good breaking balls still give him fits. If you want a comparison, hes like a Torii Hunter light type of player, if everything comes together. He's never going to draw more than 50 walks a year, unless something drastic happens. He can hit .280 or so in the bigs in a good year, and he has 30 HR power and 30 SB potential, plus potential gold glove defense. In a way, he's basically very similar to Adam Jones, but he hasn't done it at a higher level yet, and is more raw in terms of strike zone judgment.

If the light comes on, hes a potential above average CF. If the light doesn't, well, he's a 4th OF. The defense will always have value.

China fan - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 02:15 AM EDT (#188730) #

The Jays have now climbed out of last place (by percentage points), and only 4 games behind the Yanks,
who they conveniently play next. With the Jays offence finally getting on track -- 22 runs in the past three games -- the Jays could make up ground on the Yanks in this series.

China fan - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 05:35 AM EDT (#188731) #

Nor am I deterred by the injury to Vernon Wells, since the Jays went 15-11 during the last Wells injury.

Chuck - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 07:18 AM EDT (#188732) #

Note that nobody got more plate appearances than Lind anyway and that he scored 2 runs because he was batting directly in front of 2 good contact hitters.

I've never seen Wilkerson as a contact guy. Maybe it was the strikeouts.

Lind was batting in front of Inglett and Eckstein.

The_Game - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#188733) #

Lind was batting in front of Inglett and Eckstein.

Read that wrong, I suppose. Must have been my absolute disdain for Wilkerson getting the best of me. Oh well, it happens.

Still not exactly sure how Lind getting fewer at bats than anybody on the team and hitting in front of those two is a good thing, though.

Mike Green - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#188735) #

If I had a pitcher with a history of TJ surgery and a persistent small rotator cuff tear, and great stuff, I would give him a lot of time on the DL to fully recover and move him to the bullpen. The chances of getting 70 excellent high leverage innings per year are, in my view, much, much higher than getting 200 excellent low to medium leverage innings per year.

MRI technology does help to identify those pitchers who are likely to be able to withstand the starting pitcher's workload.

John Northey - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#188736) #

I think the main reason for Lind in the 9 hole is what Cito said earlier. It is easier to break a guy in with no pressure in the 9th slot than anywhere else. Lind had issues last year (77 OPS+) and really slumped to start this year before Cito came in.

This is something that helps emphasis why Cito was viewed as anti-kids even as he put many into the lineup over the years. He figures out how much pressure the kid can handle and then puts them in a situation where they can succeed rather than fail (Green not facing LHP, Lind batting 9th, etc.) Seems to work fairly well, and Lind has shown enough vs LHP (like the game winning hit) that I suspect Cito will keep him in vs LHP but also keep him low in the order until Lind's confidence gets a bit higher.

In the end it isn't so much where a guy hits as the fact he is in the lineup that counts. Lind hitting 9th is many, many times better than Stewart leading off.

Ryan Day - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#188737) #

Leaving Lind in to face Sherrill, who's holding lefties to 163/269/256, is a pretty huge vote of confidence from Cito. I don't think you can make much of an argument that Cito doesn't like/trust Lind.

Mike Green - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#188738) #

I am delighted with Cito's handling of Lind so far. Lind's career OBP in the majors is .298 (after .380 in the minors). It will rise, and with it, Lind's place in the batting order.

Chuck - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#188739) #

Leaving Lind in to face Sherrill, who's holding lefties to 163/269/256, is a pretty huge vote of confidence from Cito. I don't think you can make much of an argument that Cito doesn't like/trust Lind.

I'm not saying anything about Gaston's trust in Lind, but was there even anyone left on the bench when Lind batted against Sherrill? With Wells out and Mench not up yet, the bench was shortened to just three players -- Scutaro, McDonald and Zaun -- and all three had already been used.

James W - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#188740) #

Cito had used his entire bench to pinch hit for Stairs and Wilkerson, and pinch run for Barajas. Perfectly acceptable, because there's no point in saving a righty to hit for Overbay or Lind if their spot doesn't even get to the plate.

Ryan Day - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#188741) #

Fair point. Though to listen to some people, one might expect Cito's utter disdain for young players to result in a pitcher pinch-hitting for Lind.

Mike Green - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#188742) #

Incidentally, if you were going to pick out a prospect from the Phillies' system without regard to positional need, the one you want is Lou Marson. He just turned 22, is by all accounts a very good defensive catcher, and can hit. You would probably want to have another trade organized with a catching prospect going out for another position prospect.

Glevin - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#188749) #

"I think the main reason for Lind in the 9 hole is what Cito said earlier. It is easier to break a guy in with no pressure in the 9th slot than anywhere else. "

For me, this makes zero sense whatsoever. Hitting 6th or 7th place in the lineup on a non-contending team that can't hit is hardly a pressure-packed situaion. Anyway, what better time to get somebody used to "pressure" like when the games don't really matter. As for giving Cito "credit" for Lind hitting, it's utter tosh. Why not give Gibbons credit for the awesome 60 ABs Lind had in 2006. Lind is a good hitter, he just needed to play.

John Northey - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#188752) #

Glevin, there is a psychological aspect to sports. Lind had issues earlier in the majors outside of his great September call-up. A managers job is to see where those problems come from and figure out how to get the most out of a player.

Gibbons was very good at this with pitchers given how well many relievers did under him. However, for hitters we have seen a lot of disasters. Cito did break in a lot of hitters over his time here before (from Olerud to Green) in methods that most hated (platooning, asking to hit for more power, etc.). However, many of those players did have solid careers and, unlike the recent Jays, there were few flops ala Phelps and Hinske.

As long as we keep seeing the best possible lineup out there (ie: Lind over Wilkerson and Mench outside of the odd day off) I'll be happy regardless of Lind hitting 9th, 4th, or leadoff.

VBF - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#188753) #

Given Gillick intends to retire after this year he might just go for it, as what good are SS's who won't be around for a few years when he definitely won't be around to enjoy the spoils.

In my imaginary world, I'd like to pretend that Gillick would give us a nice quality shortstop prospect for Burnett, knowing in the back of his mind that he'd accept a general manager positition with the Blue Jays at the end of the season.

TDIB 10 July 2008 | 75 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.