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Features Pitching Depth - What To Do Post AJ
We now have Marcum and McGowan on the DL with AJ likely to be moving soon. So, who fills in those 3 open slots?


Checking AAA starters we can see who is there and likely to get a shot...

Player Age W L G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA WHIP
David Purcey 26 6 6 16 16 97 78 8 33 100 2.97 1.14
Bill Murphy 27 5 5 18 17 96.2 98 8 55 94 5.03 1.58
Kane Davis 33 6 7 16 15 86.2 96 4 28 61 4.15 1.43
John Parrish 30 10 1 15 11 82 73 4 35 90 2.74 1.32
Davis Romero 25 3 6 17 17 69.1 68 7 25 54 3.89 1.34
Michael MacDonald 26 1 0 21 4 55.2 54 5 15 34 2.75 1.24

Parrish is currently filling in for Marcum, Purcey is the next likely to come up. Murphy is a left hander who I'd rather not see in the majors with the Jays. Kane Davis was said to have been released somewhere but appears to still be on the Syracuse roster. Davis Romero is only getting 4 IP per start, getting 6+ just once in his last 10 starts. MacDonald could be a surprise candidate given he has gone 5-4-6 IP his last 3 starts and has a 1.82 ERA over his last 10 games (29 IP, 21 H, 6 BB, 16 K).

Down in AA...
Player Age W L G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA WHIP
Brandon Magee 24 1 11 17 17 91.1 120 10 42 34 5.81 1.77
Scott Richmond (AAA now)
 28 5 8 16 16 89.2 89 14 30 84 4.92 1.33
Ricardo Romero 23 4 5 16 16 88.2 113 8 41 61 5.99 1.74
A.J. Wideman (Dunedin now)
 23 3 8 13 11 63.1 85 10 29 25 6.39 1.8
Brett Cecil 21 3 1 13 13 52.2 45 3 18 54 2.91 1.2
Julio Pinto 23 4 2 14 3 36.1 50 2 13 22 5.94 1.73
Robert Ray 24 3 1 4 4 29.1 27 0 6 20 0.92 1.13


We have wonderkid Brett Cecil and ... er ... an explanation of why NH stinks this year. Plus Robert Ray who kills AA so far after a decent turn in Dunedin earlier this year (13 starts, 70 IP, 18 BB, 60 K, 6 HR). Cecil could get a call up if JP is being super aggressive. Cecil certainly is showing his stuff is more than enough for AA and just might be ready. They say with pitchers that once they are ready you are just wasting their arms in the minors so lets go for it with Cecil.

Thus, in my opinion, the call ups should go to Parrish (here already), Purcey (maybe Cito can give him the confidence boost needed to get over his ML nerve attack), and Cecil plus a lot of hope Marcum and McGowan aren't out for long or that JP gets another young starter in exchange for AJ.
Posted by John Northey on Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 03:44 PM EDT.
Pitching Depth - What To Do Post AJ | 34 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Anders - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#188617) #
McGowan to the 15 Day DL, Brian Wolfe's the callup. The All-Star break comes at a good time.
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John Northey - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#188618) #
Sounds like a 4 man rotation until the break then as Wolfe hasn't exactly been stretched out in AAA (since being sent down he has had 5 appearances, 4 2/3 IP, 2 hits, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts).

Other options for this years rotation do not include Casey Janssen as he is gone until 2009 at least.  Nor Scott Downs as he has been too effective in relief for Cito to shift him now.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#188621) #
McGowan had one more scheduled start right before the All-Star break.  My recommendation would be "Charlie Wholestaff", and with the call-up of Wolfe, that seems fairly likely. Marcum may be back after the break, and Burnett may or may not be gone.  John Parrish is likely to be here for another 3 starts or so, at a minimum.  My first choice for the rotation if another starter is required would be Scott Downs.  Maybe they'll stretch him out to 3 innings in the Charlie Wholestaff game.
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parrot11 - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#188622) #
Honestly, who cares? It's not like this team was going to make the playoffs. I wouldn't rush any prospects up simply to showcase them. Promote them when they're ready.
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Mick Doherty - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#188623) #

"Charlie Wholestaff"

Great idea. Always wonder why more teams don't do this. Jamey Newberg reports that the Rangers are doing this tonight, even!

Looks like, according to multiple local reports, that tonight’s pitching plan is to start Warner Madrigal against his former organization, hope to get three innings out of him, and follow with Josh Rupe and Jamey Wright.  Looks like, according to multiple local reports, that tonight’s pitching plan is to start Warner Madrigal against his former organization, hope to get three innings out of him, and follow with Josh Rupe and Jamey Wright. 

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Mick Doherty - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#188624) #
Sorry, I hit "paste" twice in that last post. My bad.
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christaylor - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#188626) #
Purcey and Romero both deserve shots... that's one nice side-effect of being out of it, giving young players ML experience without much on the line. Go out there and knock 'em dead boys.
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The_Game - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#188629) #

Romero deserves a shot? Maybe you haven't seen his numbers.

I'm up for bringing up Purcey, definitely, after the AS break.

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ayjackson - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#188630) #

Romero deserves a shot? Maybe you haven't seen his numbers.

These numbers?  They don't seem too bad to me.  Not as good as before the surgery, but certainly could merit some consideration, depending on how depleted we get.

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The_Game - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#188632) #

I was assuming he was referring to Ricky Romero.

As for Davis Romero, well he has some incredibly mediocre numbers. I certainly wouldn't be bringing him up to start at the major league level.

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christaylor - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#188633) #
I was referring to Davis Romero; he's not doing terribly at AAA and has already been in the majors. No sense in seeing what he can do. Either way, I'd rather see either of Purcey/Romero over Parrish/Tallet. It is that kind of season. Give me something to be interested in.

... but as for that other Romero, I don't know why everyone so quick to call him a bust. Lefties take longer to figure things out and he's 23. Two years from now he'll be where Purcey is now...so even then he'll be at least a marginal prospect.
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Gerry - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#188634) #
On WWJP, JP said that McGowan has a tear in his shoulder, rotator cuff-area he thinks.  The Jays will wait for the swelling to go down then send McGowan to see Dr. Tim Kremchuck to see what the diagnosis is.  However it doesn't sound good.  JP was trying to be optimistic, saying that a lot of pitchers pitch with small tears in their shoulder.
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Flex - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#188635) #
After tonight's performance by A.J., maybe it's moot. Unless he turns it around dramatically in his next start, I'd say he's not bringing anything of significance and Ricciardi might just have to keep him.

And if his ERA stays above 5, he might be here next year too.
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The_Game - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#188636) #
Buyers aren't going to care what AJ's ERA is, or what he did on some July night agaisnt the Orioles. Take a look at his stuff, track record, and peripherals this year, and they'll know that he can help them down the stretch.
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King Ryan - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#188637) #
Honestly, a trade of AJ can't come fast enough for me.  And I could not care less who comes back as long as they're under 25.
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The_Game - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#188639) #

Oh, and there is absolutely no chance Burnett stays here next year. Even if his ERA remains over 5 (incredibly unlikely), he'll get over 12 million a season from somebody.

I guess people forget just how mediocre Ted Lilly was the season before he got 50 million from the Cubs.

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BulletJayFan - Wednesday, July 09 2008 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#188641) #
If there's an opening after Purcey gets called up and you don't want to bring up Cecil so quickly, Macdonald might not be a bad idea. He's still getting stretched out, but before he fatigues, he's pitching effectively. Tonight, he cruised through 5, giving up only 2 runs on 3 hits (1 HR, about the only ball hit well at all), and struck out 6. Of course, the 6th didn't work out so well, but he was a reliever not too long ago. He got a lot more swings and misses than you normally see at AAA, and looks to have added a couple miles per hour on his fastball from last year, making both his sinker and his slider more effective. Of course, he's missing a third pitch, and would still need to add a bit more velocity to really stick at the ML level, but we're only talking a couple starts here, hopefully.
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John Northey - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 12:56 AM EDT (#188649) #
Good point The_Game.  Lilly's 3 years in Toronto: ERA+ of 119-80-106 over 197-126-182 IP respectively.  This made him a highly chased free agent getting 4 years $40 million between the 06 and 07 seasons for his age 31-34 seasons.  Given MLB inflation of about 10% per year (iirc) you could expect he'd have gotten $48 over 4 today. 

AJ's past 3 years are ERA+ of 115-119-82 (and dropping) over 136-166-119 innings.  Not as durable as Lilly, but a higher likelihood of 110+ in ERA given his lifetime 109 vs Lilly's of about 100 when he left (he is at 102 after a 122 and a 100 season so far in Chicago).  AJ will be 32 next year so a 3 year deal for $36 million should be a lock despite his struggles.  Doesn't seem right, but there you go.  Given St Louis' #2 is Lohse (lifetime 96 ERA+ but 117 so far this year) and they tend to think they can recover any pitcher to their 'true' ability plus the crazy competition in that division they might be interested.

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Magpie - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#188650) #
I guess people forget just how mediocre Ted Lilly was the season before he got 50 million from the Cubs.

Year Ag Tm  Lg  W  L  G GS CG SHO  IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
2006 30 TOR AL 15 13 32 32  0   0 181.7  179   98   87  28   81  160   4   7   797   6   4  4.31  4.56  106 1.431

Better than A.J., surely.

Apparently the plan is to start Tallet, and then All Hands on Deck after a couple of innings.

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Alex Obal - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 02:51 AM EDT (#188654) #
Why not. All hands get four days of rest before the season starts again in Tampa on Friday. AJ and Parrish should be fair game if the game goes 16.
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The_Game - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 05:00 AM EDT (#188655) #

Better than A.J., surely.

Wait, so Ted Lilly wasn't mediocre in his final year here? The numbers you listed sure make it look like he was.

And sure, AJ Burnett has been awful, but that's not going to affect his ability to make money in free agency this year. With his combination of stuff and a track record of relative success (his peripherals suggest he'll do better the rest of this eyar as well), AJ is going to be just fine.

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Chuck - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#188659) #

Given St Louis' #2 is Lohse (lifetime 96 ERA+ but 117 so far this year) and they tend to think they can recover any pitcher to their 'true' ability plus the crazy competition in that division they might be interested.

But the Cardinals have gotten cheap lately. Their pitching staff is just loaded with bargain basement reclamation projects: Lohse, Pineiro, Looper, Franklin, Springer... La Russa and Duncan have made a cottage industry out squeezing blood from stones. Perhaps the brass will be happy just finding them a new bag of generic stones rather than any shiney expensive ones.

That said, maybe the raising of the bar by the Cubs and Brewers will force the Cardinals into some off-season spending just to keep up.

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Chuck - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 07:29 AM EDT (#188660) #
Wait, so Ted Lilly wasn't mediocre in his final year here? The numbers you listed sure make it look like he was.

In 2006, the league ERA was 4.56. The average starter's ERA was probably about 4.76. Lily threw 182 innings of 4.31. That's definitely an above average performance, though others can decide if that warranted a 4/44 contract.
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The_Game - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#188661) #

And now we're debating on the definition of mediocrity?

Lilly had a 4.31 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in his final season with Toronto. This was coming off his injury-filled season with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP.

Oh, how I wish all pitchers could be THAT good.

 

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rpriske - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#188662) #

Apparently Brian Tallet is getting a start so that they don't have to bring up an arm before the ASG.

Also, there is talk that Marcum is back right after the break. We'll see.

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Chuck - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#188667) #

And now we're debating on the definition of mediocrity?

Lilly had a 4.31 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in his final season with Toronto. This was coming off his injury-filled season with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP.

Oh, how I wish all pitchers could be THAT good.

It wasn't my intention to be pedantic. The word mediocre has two definitions that run somewhat contrary to each other. It can mean average or it can mean poor. While the most prevalent use of the word is the latter, as a pejorative, I took your meaning to be the former. I assumed that you were not calling Lilly poor, just average. And while the word average carries with it no small amount of baggage (just ask Garrison Keillor), it is no insult to be referred to as an average major league player.

When free agents are pursued, their most recent season tends to carry disproportionate weight (which, as we all know, has lead to an inordinate number of ill-conceived contracts). Thus the Cubs, in my estimation, were valuating Lilly based solely on 2006, which was as an above average starter (albeit with wobbly peripherals).

Similarly, Meche and Silva got contracts seemingly based on their most recent season rather than their body of work.

While Burnett's long run of sub-4 ERAs will not go unnoticed by GMs who valuate him this coming off-season, I wonder how many will look at this 5+ ERA (despite much better peripherals) and be leary? I'm not suggesting that all will or that any should, but the what have you done for me lately school of thinking continues to play a key role when the chequebooks come out.

Apropos of nothing, it's interesting that both Lilly and Meche had terrific first seasons with their new teams, but that both have regressed to more typical performance levels in their second year. Carlos Silva has taken a different path, stinking it up to the tune of an ERA+ of 70 in his first season as a Mariner.

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Anders - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#188672) #
McGowan's out at least a month, per ESPN.
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robertdudek - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#188675) #
Wait, so Ted Lilly wasn't mediocre in his final year here? The numbers you listed sure make it look like he was.

Not if you delve into them.

A 106 ERA+ for a starter is actually very good. Reliever ERAs as a group are always significantly better than starter ERAs as a group (due to the scoring rules, the strategic edge of employing a reliever on a platoon basis, and the fact that they almost never have to see the same batter twice in the same game).

So an average ERA+ for a starter is probably about 93-95.  That's average. Lilly's106 is significantly above average. And I haven't seen any dictionary that lists "mediocre" as a synonym for "above average".

There is also the fact that many starters actually fail to pitch a full season, being demoted for poor performance or succumbing to injury. If we look more broadly at the entire population of "candidate starters" (pitchers that teams have tried in the rotation), a 106 ERA+ over a full season is almost certainly in the top third in terms of value , possibly even the top quarter of the sample.
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Thomas - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#188678) #
Also, the Jays only have one off day in the approximate month following the ASB, so they will need a fifth starter twice, can skip the fifth spot (on the off day on the 31st) and then will need the fifth starter on the 5th, 10th and 15th of August. It seems likely that Marcum will be off the DL shortly, so we really only need to replace McGowan and possibly Burnett. However, Mike Green said in the other thread that there's less chance AJ gets traded after last night's start. I think it's more likely he's dealt than not, but I'd agree that last night's start did nothing for his trade value and I'd be surprised if he doesn't make at least one, if not two, starts for the Jays post-ASB.

Given that, you can slot Parrish in for McGowan and only need someone ready to step in for AJ if he's dealt. I wouldn't promote Cecil until September, if at all. If you did need a second starter, I would have it be either Purcey or, if the team doesn't want to call him up, Macdonald. In either case you could either start the call-up, or have them pitch in relief and have Tallet start and go four innings. MacDonald's had a better than expected rise through the minors and even if he doesn't appear to figure prominently in the team's future plans, I'd rather see him given the reward of making the majors rather than calling up a retread like Murphy having a rough season.

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canuckiwi - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#188680) #

I think that they should  take a chance on bringing Richmond up after Purcey instead of MacDonald. In the 3 games that he's pitched in Triple-A since he's been called up, his numbers are better than any of the other starters with the exception of maybe Purcey. Unlike MacDonald, he's got 4 pitches, and he attacks the strike zone consistently, with good off-speed stuff to complement his 93-95 fastball. 

Besides, he's mature at 28 yrs old, and the Jays have nothing to lose by throwing him in at the deep end, where he might just come up trumps for them. The rest of the starters are basically retreads, who've already shown what they've got, but Richmond has yet to be given the same opportunity. Here's a guy who's fallen through the cracks, but has shown that he deserves a shot; I say it's time to give him one.   

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rpriske - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#188692) #

Have you all seen this from Blair?

 

What do you think about the Phils players that he mentions?

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Mike Forbes - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#188695) #
Well, what players does he mention?
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James W - Thursday, July 10 2008 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#188701) #

Looks like there's a link missing, to the Globe's baseball blog.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/baseball

The players mentioned are outfielder Greg Golson, catcher Lou Marson, pitcher Carlos Carrasco, and infielders Jason Donald and Brad Harman.

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The_Game - Friday, July 11 2008 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#188729) #

Ted Lilly's FIP in '06: 4.79

Ted Lilly's FIP in '05: 5.32

Ted Lilly's FIP in '04: 4.50

Mediocrity (and yes I understand he's above average compared to the many Victor Zambrano types in the league, but come on), and yet he managed to make 10 million a season because of a few lucky years of ERA being lower than they should have been.

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.