At the season's mid-point, Marco Scutaro is third on the team in AB. Were this known at the start of the year, this would surely have not bode well for the team's fortunes. I don't write this with the intent to disparage Scutaro. It's not his fault that he's had to fill in so much for injured starters at three different positions.
But what's with the Scutaro lovefest that is every broadcast (to say nothing of Gaston's seeming fondness for the man)? Scutaro is basically performing at his career level, plugging away as a competent backup infielder, nothing more, exactly fulfilling the role he was signed for. Once again, it's not his fault that he has supplanted John McDonald as lovefest icon. I just find it curious (and, once again, have nothing against Scutaro himself).
Right about now, we'd all be attaching comments to David Till's always enjoyable mid-season report card. My comments on the team's reliance on Scutaro would have found a home there.
For the Jays to win 90 games, they have to finish 49-29. While I see a 39-39 finish, what has to happen for them to win 49 games? If the pitchers continue at their pace but the hitters return to career norms, will that be enough? Or must two of Rios, Wells and Rolen need to slug .500 over the latter half for the team to even have a fighting chance? Is Aaron Hill's return to the lineup, at his 2007 level of performance, a mandatory requirement as well? For the team to go +20 in the next three months, there is very little margin for error. We'll have to do much more than celebrate Marco Scutaro's pluckiness.
I think if Hill is able to recover (and this is getting fairly worrisome, isn't it?) it would make sense to have him play short and see if Inglett can continue his hot hitting. With an offense as feeble as ours, Inglett has been a real catalyst. He's playing over his head, but his minor league numbers show a guy who can get on base with some gap power - which is what he's shown us. I can't see this happening, but would it help? I haven't seen him play enough to get a sense of his defense, but he appears to be solid - no Hill, but who is? Anyone have a better sense of this?
Yes.
Is Aaron Hill's return to the lineup, at his 2007 level of performance, a mandatory requirement as well?
No.
Hey, it's a holiday!
(In the interest of not taking Halladay for granted, I gotta say - that was amazing. He is the best player I have ever seen in a Blue Jays uniform and I hope he never leaves.)
I hope Hill gets all the time he needs. Inglett is probably in his absolute prime as an athlete, why not ride it out and give Hill every possible day of recovery time. You can't tough out post-concussion stuff, and Aaron Hill is a critical component of the Jays for the next several years.
The Jays' run prevention this year has been marvelous. They've allowed the 3rd-fewest runs in baseball (and are 1 run behind the White Sox, the team ahead of them in that category). Amazing that we're still below .500.
In 2004, the A's claim Scutaro off waivers from the Mets. In spring training, Mark Ellis blows out his shoulder in a collision with Bobby Crosby. Ellis misses the entire season and Scutaro becomes the primary second baseman.
In 2005, on the heels of his Rookie of the Year campaign, Crosby collides with Bobby Kielty in a spring training game and cracks a couple ribs. Crosby misses two months as Scutaro takes over. Later on that season, Crosby breaks his ankle on a slide and again, Scutaro is there.
In 2006, things start innocently enough but it is only a matter of time before the Curse of the Super Marco strikes. Ellis breaks his thumb in early June and just as Ellis returns, Crosby start having lower back problems that affected him the entire second half of 2006. Again, Scutaro is there.
In 2007, the A's have high hopes. They finally got past the first round in 2006 and Super Marco hits a walkoff homer against Mariano Rivera during the first homestand of the season. Ah, but it was only a matter of time. By the second half, Eric Chavez and Crosby go down again. Scutaro becomes the primary third baseman and then shifts to shortstop when the A's call up Jack Hannahan.
Finally, in 2008, the Blue Jays sign Scutaro as a free agent. And wouldn't you know it? In spring training, Scott Rolen breaks his finger - not in a game and not getting hit by a pitch but during a fielding exercise. Of course, Rolen soon returns and Scutaro is pushed to the bench. But you can't keep him down long. This time, the Curse worked its mystical powers as David Eckstein and John McDonald are injured in the exact same game. Both shortstops soon returned but not long after, the Curse worked its wrath upon Aaron Hill in an ugly outfield collision on a popup. And guess who started playing second base?
The conclusion is obvious. It may seem like sensible team construction to have a quality fifth infielder that can play anywhere like a Marco Scutaro. But infield teammates must beware of the Curse of the Super Marco. You may scoff and think that Crosby and Chavez are just brittle. But is it really just them?? Inquiring minds need to know.
While I don't do report cards any more, here's some midseason thoughts.
- I think we can stop dissing J.P. for punting Frank Thomas. The man hasn't played an inning of baseball since mid-May after injuring his leg running the bases (while trying to reach second on a ball that would have been a double for any other, non-Molina, hitter).
- I'm not worrying about whether Aaron Hill gets to play this season. I just hope he gets to play again ever.
- What is it with Joe Inglett? He's hitting .315 (with walks), and he can really pivot at second. Why didn't anybody promote this guy earlier?
- The lesson of the 2008 season: consistency and command trump stuff. Marcum and Litsch are doing better than McGowan and Burnett.
- Of course, having both consistency and stuff is best. I love it that Roy Halladay has as many complete games as any other team in baseball. At this point, he's either the best Jays pitcher ever or the second-best; only Stieb can be compared to him. (Henke ranks third. Some gentleman, whose name escapes me at the moment and who was here for only two years, doesn't register on the radar. Even if he allegedly didn't allegedly ingest alleged performance-enhancing alleged drugs.)
- Being a relief pitcher in the modern era is a tough life: Ryan had TJ surgery, Janssen is gone, Accardo is hurt, and League hasn't done anything since 2006. (And did anybody sign Vinnie Chulk after SF punted him?) Messrs. Carlson and Camp are advised to savour every moment, as the good times ain't gonna last.
- Whatever else Cito does, you have to give him credit for bringing Rios back to life. Alex pretty much started hitting from the moment John Gibbons and Gary Denbo left the premises.
- As many people have mentioned, Vernon Wells has roughly the same offensive skills as Joe Carter. They're actually fairly similar body types - both are/were wide-bodied men who bat right, can run fast, hit for power, and are vulnerable to low and outside breaking pitches. (Low and outside breaking pitches are tough for certain kinds of right-handed power hitters to handle. They're what drove Jesse Barfield out of baseball at a relatively young age.) And it isn't Vernon's fault that he's overpaid: he's trying his hardest, and that's all you can ask.
- And I have to say it: I am not optimistic about the future of this team. The hitters are almost all past their age-27 peak, and therefore are doing what aging hitters inevitably do: hit a little bit worse than expected. You can see it up and down the lineup. And it's not going to get better from here.
- I'd punt J.P. at this point. He hasn't been that bad of a GM; the 2008 Jays could easily have been better than they are, given any kind of luck. I've said, semi-jokingly, that J.P.'s greatest weakness as a GM is that he hasn't been lucky enough. That, and the farm system hasn't produced much - which may be plain old luck too. But the Jays have gone through one complete development cycle under Ricciardi - it's time to bring a fresh set of brains in. Maybe the new guy will be luckier than the old guy.
- And whoever the new guy is: no more opt-out contracts, please. If A.J. Burnett is awful the rest of the way, the Jays will be stuck with him for two more years. If he isn't awful, he'll land a five-year deal somewhere else. He gets to play with the house's money this year.
My only mid-season thought:
Why hasn't Barry Bonds been signed anywhere in baseball at this point? Now I'm not going to say he would have made this specific Jays team a contender because they would have probably found a way to lose as they usually do, but they would have been far better overall. I think it's something that the Red Sox should seriously consider if Ortiz looks to be out for a long time.
Aaron Cook pitches complete game shutout in under 2 hours. Only uses 79 pitches! And he does it in Colorado of all places. He's catching up to Doc for the MLB lead in total innings pitched
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_9760089?source=rss
CA: Arencibia/Diaz - A+/AA and R/AAA/ML - 312/337/551 and 296/316/408
1B: Cooper - As - 333/412/567
2B: Hill - DL ML
3B: Rolen for 2010, can Scott Campbell play 3B? (AA-342/438/460)
SS: umm.... Bryan Kervin in As is hitting 314/455/400 over 12 games...
LF: Snider As/AA 275/353/475
CF: Wells ML
RF: Rios ML
DH: Lind AAA/ML
Counting on a lot of guys to keep progressing there, and have a heck of a hole at SS but otherwise not bad.
Rotation...
Halladay, McGowan, Marcum, Litsch, Cecil (A+/AA 2.74 ERA over 17 starts) with Purcey, two Romero's and various others nipping at their heels.
Bullpen...
Impossible to say - relievers are just too hard to predict. However, Wolfe, Accardo, League, Carlson should all still be around along with Ryan in 2010 and who knows who else.
For 2010 and beyond this could be a very good team. But there are sooooo many variables that it is impossible to say for certain one way or the other. However, one thing is for certain - SS is a big potential hole and solutions from within aren't moving well right now.
Cook pitches in the NL West, has faced opponents with a combined .715 OPS (compared to .751 with Halladay), has one more start than Doc, and is still 5 innings behind him anyway.
The shortstops in the plan are Jackson and Pastornicky. Neither is likely to be ready in 2010, but Jackson conceivably could be in 2011.
Vernon Wells would ideally be a corner outfielder in 2010. The Jays cannot afford the luxury of Bernie Williams redux, and while Vernon is a good player, he hasn't been a cornerstone of a championship team as Williams was. Hopefully, this means that he will be moved soon.
Kevin Ahrens should be near ready for third base in 2011, after Rolen is finished. That would give him two more full years in the minors after this one. 3.5 years in the minors is about right for a 14th overall draft pick (HS hitter).
I have some doubts whether Rolen will hold up at the hot corner until then. Brad Emaus is a longshot get some spot duty at third too.
Fuenmayor - Rk - 18 years old - 188-270-250, having more issues than Ahrens, is at least a year behind Ahrens if not more, so 2013 at the earliest
Emaus - A+ - 22 years old - 277-335-418, playing at second base mainly (67 games vs 3 at third). AA next year, AAA for 2010, ML for 2011 is the optimistic viewpoint but he'll have to improve that bat to be a solid ML third baseman.
None of those 3 are jumping out stats wise but at this stage a scout would probably have a better idea of what to expect. Ahrens is the most interesting, Emaus the closest. I still hope Campbell is an option as second base (assuming Hill recovers) is set for a long time and Campbell is really impressive this year. Campbell has 11 games at third in his career so far, but none this year. Don't forget, Jeff Kent was at 2B in the minors then moved to third by the Jays before going off to the Mets/Cleveland/SF/LA and playing second again.
Proof that nobody reads headlines, I guess ... this story has been live for more than a full day ... and ... what year is it right now?
I forgot to set my Web browser to disable time travel! :-)
Yeah, how about that. We're back to the present now.
Except that we're not, in this thread at least—as in so many others. One of the things I simply do not understand about Da Box is its itchy reaching after certitude, and after the future. Da Box has demonstrated time and time again that it cannot predict the future. Not two weeks ahead, let alone two years! I do appreciate the fragile appeals of conjecture, speculation, and 'let's pretend'; but the degree to which these indulgences are taken on this board, and their frequency, continues to intrigue me. Surely this all means something?
And here's an interesting note from Verducci "The three teams with the lowest payrolls in baseball (Marlins, Rays, Athletics) are closer to a playoff spot than the three teams with the highest payrolls (Yankees, Tigers, Mets)" Anybody still crying for MLB to have a salary cap?
oops.... sorry ayj.... I really should read more closely. I missed the 6b in your post and now pretty much look like a blind fool.
Back when the Jays were around the 50 million payroll mark there were people here that said they wouldn't mind a salary cap. I know several Pirate fans that wish there was a salary cap. MLB has proven you can have parity without a salary cap.
The Rays are good this year, and the Yankees are bad (by comparison), but I hardly think we can consider this the norm. Every club is eventually going to run into holes that can't be filled internally, which means they will need to spend some money in the free agent market. Good management can get the best available value for the dollar, but spread over several seasons, a team with a $50m payroll will have trouble competing against a team with a $200m payroll.
Back when the Jays were around the 50 million payroll mark there were people here that said they wouldn't mind a salary cap. I know several Pirate fans that wish there was a salary cap. MLB has proven you can have parity without a salary cap.
That $50m payroll was a while ago. The Pirates would suffer under a cap because they'd lose the luxury tax and have to spend up to a floor. There's only a few teams spending more than the hypothetical cap would be, that's not affecting parity. The average payroll of the six division leaders is $94.6m.
If there was a salary cap, there would also be a floor. Let's assume the MLBPA agreed to a Active Roster Cap of 50% of league revenues (which would be the lowest of the big four team sports). That would set the league-wide cap at roughly $3b, or $100m per team. The per team cap would likely be around $115m and the floor set at $85m. That would help parity, if there's much of a correlation between payroll and success.
Of course, Pittsburg would have to increase their budget by 50% just to get to the floor. The Marlins would have to increase theirs by 400% to get to the floor.
The average payroll right now is $90m. It seems a bit strange, but only four teams are spending within $10m of that figure.
If cap=floor, I don't think the owner's want any part of that.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2008/06/26/new_cap_nhl/
Max: $56.7
Min: $40.7
The floor is now higher than the cap was when the contract was signed in 05/06.
To shift to MLB you'd basically have to (at least) double those figures. So the range would be $81.4 to $113.4 million
If that was the MLB cap you'd have the following above...
Yankees, Mets, Tigers, Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Mariners
The following below...
Brewers (barely), Cleveland, Giants, Reds, Padres, Rockies, Rangers, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Royals, Twins, Nationals, Pirates, A's, Ray's, Marlins (by $60 million).
Just 5 teams (Atlanta, Cardinals, Phillies, Jays, Astros) would land in the range.
Phew. That would be a mess to try to make happen eh?