Gregory: "Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"
Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time."
Holmes: "That was the curious incident."
Which one of my old professors used to call "The Silver Blaze Effect."
Once more, with a left-handed pitcher opposing them, the Blue Jays hitters did approximately as much as the dog in the night-time. Which is a curious incident.
The excellent work of A.J. Burnett allowed the team to sneak away with a victory, despite putting but a single run on the board. Still, the team has but a 7-15 record in games where the opposition started a southpaw. Who saw this coming? Toronto's RH heavy lineup figured to punish left-handers for even showing up. It was the regular folks that they were worried about. This was one of the reasons Shannon Stewart was brought in ahead of Reed Johnson.
So what's happened?
This. Read 'em and weep.
Yup, it had been exactly one month since the Jays won a game started by an opposing left-hander. You will note that four of the seven wins the Jays have managed came when their own pitcher tossed a shutout at the other team. Let's put this another way:
The Jays are 3-15 against LF starters when they don't get a shutout from their own pitcher.
The Jays have beaten the crap out of a left-handed starter exactly once all year - Dana Eveland on May 29. Even John Danks and Kason Gabbard held the Jays to two runs each - the rest of the scoring in those games came against right-handed relievers.
As you can see, none of these games were started by Lefty Grove or Sandy Koufax. No sign of Warren Spahn or Steve Carlton. Even Johan Santana and Randy Johnson have missed the Jays this season. OK, C.C. Sabathia has a Cy Young Award and a few of these guys (Moyer, Buehrle, Lilly, Rogers) have gone to All-Star Games and Cliff Lee probably will this season. But still...
First, let's have a look at everybody's career splits:
The sole switch-hitter on the roster, Gregg Zaun, has hit a little bit better against lefties over the course of his career.
But most of the RH batters don't have much in the way of platoon splits, either. Kevin Mench, a lefty-basher his entire career (until he arrived in Toronto this season) had by far the biggest platoon split on the team. Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill both hit significantly better against southpaws. But the rest of the RH lineup was pretty much indifferent to the type of pitcher on the mound.
So who's acting funny?
Lots of guys. Behold:
With Mench falling off the planet, the nearest thing to a lefty-masher on the roster is Vernon Wells. V-Dub's doing okay against southpaws this season, except that he's yet to homer against a southpaw. It's only 52 ABs, of course - he'd normally only have 2 HRs anyway - but that's the main reason his slugging and OPS is down a little.
Alex Rios has not had much of a platoon split over his career, but this season he's hitting more than 70 points better against RH pitching. Likewise Scott Rolen - Rolen has had very little in the way of a platoon split over his career - he's basically the same hitter no matter who's pitching. The southpaws walk him more often. Not this year. Like Rios, he's hitting 60 points better against RH, and like Wells he has yet to homer against a southpaw.
Overbay has yet to homer against a lefty, and he's hitting 40 points lower against them - he's come up with a Matt Stairs type platoon split. (Stairs himself is 1-18 against LHP, which sort of speaks for itself.) Both the catchers are hitting better against RH, which is acceptable. Zaun isn't going to play much against left-handers anyway. Barajas has been a little better against righties this year as well, but not by a large margin. Aaron Hill, missing in action, has hit significantly better against southpaws in his brief career - only Mench and Wells gain more production, and Hill has stayed true to form this season.
The real big stories then: Wells' power outage, Overbay developing a normal platoon split, and Rios and Rolen stumbling into a weird mirror universe.
The cumulative effect has been to turn the team into something rather like John McDonald when a southpaw takes the hill. I actually like David Eckstein, but he should not be leading your team in any offensive category. Except maybe sac bunts, and getting hit by the pitch. Anything else is a very bad sign, and suggests an oncoming apocalypse. He certainly should not be your team's leader in OPS, nor should he be tied for the team lead in homers (thanks to that three run shot off Nate Robertson.)
It is, of course, a very small sample size. We take our comfort where we find it, right?
Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time."
Holmes: "That was the curious incident."
Which one of my old professors used to call "The Silver Blaze Effect."
Once more, with a left-handed pitcher opposing them, the Blue Jays hitters did approximately as much as the dog in the night-time. Which is a curious incident.
The excellent work of A.J. Burnett allowed the team to sneak away with a victory, despite putting but a single run on the board. Still, the team has but a 7-15 record in games where the opposition started a southpaw. Who saw this coming? Toronto's RH heavy lineup figured to punish left-handers for even showing up. It was the regular folks that they were worried about. This was one of the reasons Shannon Stewart was brought in ahead of Reed Johnson.
So what's happened?
This. Read 'em and weep.
9 April - Greg Smith, Oak L 3-6
10 April - Dana Eveland, Oak L 2-3
16 April - Kason Gabbard, Tex L 5-7
18 April - Kenny Rogers, Det L 4-8
20 April - Nate Robertson, Det W 5-3
29 April - Jon Lester, Bos L 0-1
2 May - Mark Buehrle, Chi W 2-0
3 May - John Danks, Chi W 5-2
9 May - C.C. Sabathia, Cle L 1-6
10 May - Aaron Laffey, Cle L 0-12
12 May - Cliff Lee, Cle W 3-0
15 May - Glen Perkins, Min W 3-2
16 May - Jamie Moyer, Pha L 3-10
27 May - Greg Smith, Oak L 1-3
29 May - Dana Eveland, Oak W 12-0
6 June - Brian Burres, Bal L 5-6
9 June - Jarrod Washburn, Sea L 2-3
15 June - Ted Lilly, Chi L 4-7
17 June - Manny Parra, Mil L 0-7
20 June - Zach Duke, Pgh L 0-1
21 June - Paul Maholm, Pgh L 3-6
29 June - Jo-Jo Reyes, Atl W 1-0
Yup, it had been exactly one month since the Jays won a game started by an opposing left-hander. You will note that four of the seven wins the Jays have managed came when their own pitcher tossed a shutout at the other team. Let's put this another way:
The Jays are 3-15 against LF starters when they don't get a shutout from their own pitcher.
The Jays have beaten the crap out of a left-handed starter exactly once all year - Dana Eveland on May 29. Even John Danks and Kason Gabbard held the Jays to two runs each - the rest of the scoring in those games came against right-handed relievers.
As you can see, none of these games were started by Lefty Grove or Sandy Koufax. No sign of Warren Spahn or Steve Carlton. Even Johan Santana and Randy Johnson have missed the Jays this season. OK, C.C. Sabathia has a Cy Young Award and a few of these guys (Moyer, Buehrle, Lilly, Rogers) have gone to All-Star Games and Cliff Lee probably will this season. But still...
First, let's have a look at everybody's career splits:
Split G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS tOPS+As already noted, this is a right-handed heavy lineup. Only three left-handed batters have had more than a dozen at bats against southpaws this season (so far) - and one of them, Brad Wilkerson, has had a reverse platoon split his entire career. With the exception of Lyle Overbay and Matt Stairs, everyone on this team normally hits better against left-handed pitching. Everyone. And even Overbay has been able to maintain his .280 batting average against southpaws, although he loses a bit of his power and doesn't walk nearly as often. Stairs is the guy who loses the most production against southpaws - he drops almost 40 points of BAVG and almost 100 points of slugging.
BARAJAS vs RHP 531 1433 352 88 1 49 189 81 8 264 16 17 14 12 25 1 2 .246 .291 .411 .702 98
BARAJAS vs LHP 244 461 110 32 0 19 70 35 6 69 7 5 3 3 12 0 0 .239 .300 .432 .732 106
ECKSTEIN vs RHP 918 2809 805 118 13 15 205 203 1 251 85 63 24 40 46 73 27 .287 .350 .354 .704 97
ECKSTEIN vs LHP 493 1146 325 54 5 16 98 96 1 70 39 14 8 18 26 39 16 .284 .357 .381 .738 107
HILL vs RHP 438 1268 352 82 6 17 138 84 3 170 16 12 13 12 35 9 6 .278 .327 .392 .719 92
HILL vs LHP 209 452 137 32 2 11 50 49 3 70 1 2 2 6 10 6 2 .303 .371 .456 .827 121
McDONALD vs RHP 424 957 221 41 7 5 51 37 0 156 10 25 4 13 19 19 8 .231 .266 .304 .570 93
McDONALD vs LHP 230 454 115 19 4 3 53 30 0 67 5 13 5 5 12 9 2 .253 .304 .333 .636 116
MENCH vs RHP 580 1536 390 89 9 49 206 109 4 258 22 2 15 16 23 5 5 .254 .310 .419 .729 86
MENCH vs LHP 353 746 224 53 5 40 119 65 9 59 5 0 8 11 9 6 1 .300 .357 .546 .902 128
OVERBAY vs RHP 699 1929 544 147 4 59 268 305 36 360 2 1 14 15 55 11 3 .282 .378 .454 .832 106
OVERBAY vs LHP 388 726 203 50 3 18 89 37 0 170 7 0 6 8 27 1 3 .280 .318 .431 .749 84
RIOS vs RHP 559 1695 488 99 21 40 200 120 3 326 14 1 18 17 33 67 20 .288 .337 .442 .779 99
RIOS vs LHP 279 625 177 45 7 16 83 57 4 122 2 0 7 8 26 10 7 .283 .342 .454 .796 103
ROLEN vs RHP 1473 4433 1259 310 28 204 802 482 25 870 85 1 53 35 97 84 34 .284 .361 .505 .866 97
ROLEN vs LHP 684 1273 357 87 6 63 236 260 27 260 17 0 16 15 23 24 8 .280 .405 .507 .912 109
SCUTARO vs RHP 524 1404 373 76 9 20 147 120 3 201 6 15 13 21 41 16 6 .266 .323 .375 .699 100
SCUTARO vs LHP 252 473 112 22 3 13 53 61 2 69 0 3 2 7 9 3 1 .237 .323 .378 .701 100
STAIRS vs RHP 1501 3931 1076 235 12 212 687 542 47 758 41 5 31 31 85 19 20 .274 .365 .501 .866 105
STAIRS vs LHP 595 875 206 44 0 37 156 113 1 236 11 0 7 8 20 9 4 .235 .328 .413 .741 77
STEWART vs RHP 1278 4246 1257 245 31 91 461 351 11 501 59 13 26 53 93 152 49 .296 .356 .433 .789 100
STEWART vs LHP 562 1328 396 70 10 24 119 153 5 183 15 2 12 18 22 44 22 .298 .374 .420 .794 102
WELLS vs RHP 953 3019 813 174 18 124 452 197 5 450 21 2 37 26 70 49 13 .269 .315 .462 .777 92
WELLS vs LHP 476 1021 325 71 6 41 165 96 6 122 3 0 9 15 33 16 8 .318 .376 .520 .896 123
WILKERSON vs RHP 840 2350 573 143 22 93 278 377 30 707 12 15 14 12 28 44 34 .244 .349 .442 .792 99
WILKERSON vs LHP 431 750 199 47 4 28 112 104 0 223 12 9 8 7 8 9 9 .265 .360 .451 .811 104
ZAUN vs RHP 974 2382 590 125 8 66 317 326 24 373 18 12 22 23 55 17 12 .248 .340 .390 .730 99
ZAUN vs LHP 416 646 174 40 1 11 74 98 5 90 4 2 8 1 19 6 5 .269 .365 .385 .751 105
The sole switch-hitter on the roster, Gregg Zaun, has hit a little bit better against lefties over the course of his career.
But most of the RH batters don't have much in the way of platoon splits, either. Kevin Mench, a lefty-basher his entire career (until he arrived in Toronto this season) had by far the biggest platoon split on the team. Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill both hit significantly better against southpaws. But the rest of the RH lineup was pretty much indifferent to the type of pitcher on the mound.
So who's acting funny?
Lots of guys. Behold:
NAME GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS HP SH SF GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
David Eckstein 22 42 6 12 4 0 1 4 6 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 .286 .400 .452 .852
Aaron Hill 20 42 3 12 4 0 0 4 10 8 1 0 1 1 1 0 .286 .426 .381 .807
Shannon Stewart 24 49 3 14 1 1 1 7 5 6 0 0 3 0 1 2 .286 .379 .408 .787
Vernon Wells 24 52 6 16 4 0 0 3 4 10 1 0 0 0 1 3 .308 .351 .385 .735
Joe Inglett 7 8 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .333 .375 .708
Rod Barajas 21 52 4 14 5 0 1 8 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 2 .269 .283 .423 .706
Scott Rolen 27 52 5 12 4 0 0 2 9 8 1 0 2 0 0 1 .231 .365 .308 .673
Gregg Zaun 20 32 3 6 1 0 1 2 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 .188 .350 .313 .663
Brad Wilkerson 17 29 3 8 1 0 0 4 3 9 0 0 0 2 1 1 .276 .333 .310 .644
Marco Scutaro 29 68 6 16 1 1 1 5 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 .235 .316 .324 .639
Frank Thomas 7 14 1 2 0 0 1 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 .143 .250 .357 .607
Alex Rios 32 83 8 19 6 0 1 9 4 22 2 0 0 0 2 5 .229 .258 .337 .596
Lyle Overbay 39 77 5 18 3 0 0 3 6 21 0 1 0 0 0 4 .234 .289 .273 .562
Kevin Mench 19 42 4 9 2 0 0 3 5 6 1 0 0 0 1 2 .214 .292 .262 .554
Curtis Thigpen 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .500 .000 .500
John McDonald 9 19 3 4 0 0 0 1 2 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 .211 .286 .211 .496
Matt Stairs 14 18 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 .056 .105 .056 .161
Adam Lind 7 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .100 .000 .100
Jorge Velandia 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Roy Halladay 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Dustin McGowan 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Jesse Litsch 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
David Purcey 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Totals 55 704 61 165 37 2 7 57 77 134 6 1 8 4 7 25 .234 .314 .322 .637
With Mench falling off the planet, the nearest thing to a lefty-masher on the roster is Vernon Wells. V-Dub's doing okay against southpaws this season, except that he's yet to homer against a southpaw. It's only 52 ABs, of course - he'd normally only have 2 HRs anyway - but that's the main reason his slugging and OPS is down a little.
Alex Rios has not had much of a platoon split over his career, but this season he's hitting more than 70 points better against RH pitching. Likewise Scott Rolen - Rolen has had very little in the way of a platoon split over his career - he's basically the same hitter no matter who's pitching. The southpaws walk him more often. Not this year. Like Rios, he's hitting 60 points better against RH, and like Wells he has yet to homer against a southpaw.
Overbay has yet to homer against a lefty, and he's hitting 40 points lower against them - he's come up with a Matt Stairs type platoon split. (Stairs himself is 1-18 against LHP, which sort of speaks for itself.) Both the catchers are hitting better against RH, which is acceptable. Zaun isn't going to play much against left-handers anyway. Barajas has been a little better against righties this year as well, but not by a large margin. Aaron Hill, missing in action, has hit significantly better against southpaws in his brief career - only Mench and Wells gain more production, and Hill has stayed true to form this season.
The real big stories then: Wells' power outage, Overbay developing a normal platoon split, and Rios and Rolen stumbling into a weird mirror universe.
The cumulative effect has been to turn the team into something rather like John McDonald when a southpaw takes the hill. I actually like David Eckstein, but he should not be leading your team in any offensive category. Except maybe sac bunts, and getting hit by the pitch. Anything else is a very bad sign, and suggests an oncoming apocalypse. He certainly should not be your team's leader in OPS, nor should he be tied for the team lead in homers (thanks to that three run shot off Nate Robertson.)
It is, of course, a very small sample size. We take our comfort where we find it, right?
