Matt Stairs thinks Denbo was on the wrong track.

Blair has similar comments.

Listening on the radio and watching TV over the weekend, it seemed as though everyone was on "the hitters had the wrong approach" story.  All commentators were talking about the more aggressive approach at the plate.

It's a;ways natural at times like these to talk about how everything was wrong with the old guys and how great the new guys are, I wonder how bad the hitters approach was in May when they won so many games?

It's a;ways natural at times like these to talk about how everything was wrong with the old guys and how great the new guys are, I wonder how bad the hitters approach was in May when they won so many games?

That's a good point, but Stairs always seems to be a straight shooter. I don't see him making public statements critical of a former coach if it was merely a minor disagreement. I think it must have been an ongoing issue for almost the entire season. I wonder what the sense would be in a hitting coach trying to tinker with Stairs' approach to begin with, as I would think it would be much more productive to let him continue the appoach he's succeeded with for the last several years of his career and to focus more on the younger hitters or guys recovering from injury, such as Overbay. There's little doubt a number of hitters, particularly the key ones, are hitting below expectations/career averages in 2008 with only Barajas showing noticeable improvement.

It's easy to be optimistic when you change faces, but I think it's likely the Jays (or at least the players felt like) the team was succeeding in May in spite of Denbo, as opposed to because of his advice.

Bob Dernier Ressort at Primer reminds us of Carlin's addendum to the seven words you couldn't say on television (back in the day).  The two-way words like "balls".

"Curt Gowdy can say that Roberto Clemente has a count of two balls on him, but he can't turn to Tony and say 'It looks like Roberto hurt his balls on that pitch.'"

One of our friends born in Scandinavia says that she plays golf, tennis and baseball well because she is "good with balls", and that her son is "good with balls" too.  She says it entirely straight-faced.  Someday, we'll have to get her that George Carlin bit.

As for the merits of Gary Denbo, I highly doubt that Denbo was telling the players to take 2-0 and 3-1 fastballs down the pike or that he told them to not pull the pitch middle in.  Gaston said that the new guys made a mechanical adjustment to Rios' swing; we will see how he does the rest of the season, but it may very well be that Denbo gave Rios mechanical advice which was not working.

No need to pay for HBO to hear those seven words. Microphones on the playing field have taken care of that.

A couple things I am wondering about, and would welcome answers to:
 1) Gene Tenace was the Jays hitting coach from 1990 to 1997.  Was he credited with some of the team's success in 1992 and 1993?   And why was he dumped in 1997 -- was there any criticism of him at the time, or was it a general "time for a change" philosophy?
 2) It seems odd that the Jays were resisting Adam Lind for so long, and then suddenly he is given a full-time job as soon as Gaston arrives.  Two possible explanations:  it was Gibbons who was resisting Lind;  or it was Ricciardi who was resisting Lind (maybe to delay his arbitration-eligible year).  If the latter, does this mean that Ricciardi has lost some of his power in the new regime?  Does Gaston wield greater influence over personnel decisions than Gibbons did?  Was this part of the deal that Gaston negotiated when he arrived -- that he would have greater clout on personnel issues, and Ricciardi would have to lose some of his dominance on those issues?

The timing of Lind's arrival, and League's, for that matter, is interesting. But I have a hard time believing ownership is behind that sort of thing - if Rogers had so little faith in Ricciardi that they'd appoint a manager he didn't want and insist on specific promotions, they'd probably just have fired him. They could always promote an interim GM if they're going to be calling the shots anyway.

I think Dwayne Murphy might have had a role in Lind's recall.  Perhaps even League's.  I think Cito might have asked Murph if anyone can help from the minors.

I kinda took the whole: Gibbons/Gaston/Lind/Marcum/League/Mench roundabout as a great big "See You in '09" banner hung outside Rogers Centre.

That's an odd way of looking at it.  Getting Lind up and playing is a positive for the team in '08 and the future.  League is likely only up until they bring up a starter for Marcum's spot.  Obviously losing Marcum is a kick in the teeth, but it wasn't a move anyone wanted to make. 

Gene Tenace was the Jays hitting coach from 1990 to 1997.

Tenace was actually the hitting coach in 1990 and 1991. He was the bench coach from 1992-1997.  Larry Hisle was the hitting coach from 1992-1995, and Willie Upshaw in 1996-1997.

Hiosle's methods got some attention because he made far more use of a computer than most baseball people did back in the day. He used it to store information about at bats and pitch patterns.

It seems odd that the Jays were resisting Adam Lind for so long, and then suddenly he is given a full-time job as soon as Gaston arrives.  Two possible explanations:  it was Gibbons who was resisting Lind;  or it was Ricciardi who was resisting Lind (maybe to delay his arbitration-eligible year).

I think a lot of people found it odd that Lind was demoted and never called back on the basis of 19 sporadic at bats considering that the upside of the alternatives (especially in the wake of Frank Thomas' release) was not exactly tremendous.

If Lind's arbitration eligibility had anything to do with the decision (which I doubt) then that speaks very ill of the front office's common sense.  You've built a $90M+ roster which for the first couple of months of the year had arguably the best pitching in the league and one of the worst offences.  A person's arbitration eligibility 2 or 3 years from the present should not have played any role in where that player played.  If he was maybe 21 years old it might be understandable but Lind is 24 and just a couple of years away from his baseball prime.

Bottom line is if the Jays were interested in fielding their best 25 man roster then Lind should have been given an extended look ahead of eventual regulars like Stewart and Wilkerson.  Extended means at least a month of playing everyday, not four or five games worth of at bats spread out over a couple of weeks.  To say that a guy hitting .330 with decent power in AAA needs to wait until 2009 to have an any role on a team that can't score runs has no basis in rational logic or even intuition for most people.

If Lind's arbitration eligibility had anything to do with the decision (which I doubt)

And if it was it was pretty silly.  As someone pointed out earlier, Lind doesn't project to be a superstar like Braun or Bruce where delaying his free agency, or his Super 2 status is going to make much of a financial difference.

I love Cito's quote in that Post article:

"The biggest thing in baseball, and anything in life, is to find out what you do best and do it," Gaston said. "If you can't hit the ball to right field, why in hell are you trying? If you're a pull hitter, pull the ball. If you're an opposite field hitter, you hit the ball to the opposite field. You don't try to do something you can't do."

It's interesting, given how Gaston apparently tried to turn John Olerud into a power hitter. (Though I believe Olerud later admitted he should have been more assertive.) But it's a good sign, anyway.

It just sounds weird to see Gene Tenace, of all people, as the prophet of a new, ultra-aggressive approach to hitting. Tenace was a valuable player himself because he had two, and two only, offensive skills - he hit some home runs and he drew a ton of walks. A ton of walks, far more than anyone on the current team, far more walks than anyone who's ever worn a Blue Jays uniform (with the possible exception of Fred McGriff.)

What's really been killing this offense won't be fixed by changing the approach in the batter's box - it's the 88 double plays they've hit into in less than half a season. They remain on pace to easily set a new major league record. It's a roster construction issue, and Adam Lind will help here. He's left-handed, and he'll strike out a few times.

Gaston apparently tried to turn John Olerud into a power hitter.

Gaston tried to get Olerud to work on pulling the ball not because Gaston felt like it would be a cool thing, but because the other teams were having success taking away the doubles Olerud used to line into left-centre. They began to pitch him and defense him differently, and Olerud hadn't figured out what to do about it. Olerud didn't fight what Gaston was trying with him - he's not that kind of guy - but he was reluctant nonetheless, and it didn't work very well. Most major league hitters are very, very, very reluctant to meddle with what got them there.

I went to the games in Pittsburgh (great park, great city) and after the game on Sunday J.P was interviewed on ESPN radio. He was asked about adding offence throught the trade route and said that the Jays were probably going to add offence from within. He mentioned bringing Lind up and (this shocked me) he said the team was bouncing around the idea of bringing Travis Snider up from double A.

he said the team was bouncing around the idea of bringing Travis Snider up from double A.

Now that would be a true act of a desperate man who knows he is near the end. I really hope that does not happen, as Snider is just starting to hit his stride down there. Snider is not going to push this team over the top.

i keep refreshing baseball sites, hoping I'm not going to see the words "Marcum needs TJ Surgery"

Blech.  The way the last couple years have gone, it wouldn't shock me.

A ton of walks, far more than anyone on the current team, far more walks than anyone who's ever worn a Blue Jays uniform

He just squeaks by Carlos Delgado: Tenace's high was 125 BBs in 1977, Delgado had 123 in 2000. McGriff topped out at 119 in '89.

Also, according to bb-ref, Tenace was born Fiore Gino Tennaci, which is very cool.

He just squeaks by Carlos Delgado: Tenace's high was 125 BBs in 1977, Delgado had 123 in 2000. McGriff topped out at 119 in '89.

But look at the AB. Tenace wins the BB/AB ratio hands down.

Tenace 1977: 437 AB, 125 BB
Delgado 2000: 569 AB, 123 BB
McGriff 1989: 551 AB, 119 BB

Here are career Isolated OBP figures (OBP minus AVG):
Tenace 147
Delgado 104
McGriff 93

For a frame of reference:
Cust 147
Bonds 146
Ruth 132
McGwire 131
Henderson 122

Tenace was mad about walks, like very few hitters in the history of the sport.

I remember seeing a Strat-O-Matic manager bat Tenace leadoff in the mid-70's. There was a forward-thinking kind of guy. Nobody talked a whole hell of a lot about OBP back in those days. Leadoff meant speed, even if you hit like Omar Moreno.

Now rewrite those numbers with IBB subtracted, and the gap widens

Calling up Snider would be truly desperate, although he might actually perform OK. He's been pretty hot for a while now.

I wonder if he'll make the team next year. Excluding shortstop and catcher (both unknowns for 2009), we could have the following seven players in the lineup:

Overbay
Rios
Wells
Rolen
Lind
Snider
Hill

We would still be short a big thumper, and a leadoff hitter--can we find a slugging C and a speedy SS with good OBP?--but with Lind (instead of Stewart) and Snider (instead of Stairs), at least the core would be quite a bit younger.

Fascinating to see the negative comments about Denbo, or about his approach, from players and coaches.  You don't usually see that kind of candor.  Very refreshing to see it.  Usually when somebody is fired you get the platitudes about how good a job the guy was doing, that it wasn't his fault, etc. etc.

BTW, I have seen a few people here talking about the Jays' good performance in May and mentioning the hitting being better in that month.  It really wasn't the hitting that was better in May, though, it was the pitching.  In April, they scored 116 runs in 28 games, or 4.14 runs per game.  In May, they scored 119 runs in 30 games, or 3.97 runs per game.  The OPS was slightly higher in May, but the runs scored per game were actually lower.  The main reason they won so many games in May was because the pitching was so much better than April or June.  In May, they gave up 18 fewer runs, despite playing 2 more games than April.  The team ERA dropped from 3.75 to 2.91.  So far in June it is up to 4.54.  The improvement in ERA in May was found in both the starters and relievers.  The starters ERA in June has ballooned to 5.01, and the bullpen ERA has gone up from 2.24 to 3.54.  April also suffered from some bad luck in terms of run distribution, as the team scored 4 more than they allowed, yet went 11-17.

 

If Halladay makes his next scheduled start on Thursday, it should be a doozy of a matchup: Doc vs. Volquez (10-2, 1.71 ERA, 110 Ks in 95 IP). At least Edison isn't a lefty.

Also, according to bb-ref, Tenace was born Fiore Gino Tennaci, which is very cool.

"Flower"?  Gene Tenace?  No wonder he's Gino.  What a beautiful language, Italian.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/probable_pitchers.jsp?c_id=tor

Looks like with the off day everyone will move up a spot that way they dont have to fill Marcum's place in the rotation just yet.  So this means AJ tomorrow, Doc on Wednesday and Litsch on Thursday.

Good news on Marcum according to mlb.com.  Strained ligaments in his forearm arounds the elbow area.  He can begin throwing as early as Saturday.

Here's the good news on Marcum per the Globe.

It seems odd that the Jays were resisting Adam Lind for so long, and then suddenly he is given a full-time job as soon as Gaston arrives.

I thought this was odd as well. The Gibbons/Ricciardi G.M./Manager relationship was  particularly unique, good friends for 25 years I think Gibbons may have had more personnel input than most realized. Blair was on the Fan several weeks ago discussing Frank Thomas and apparently was of the opinion that Gibbons was the driving force behind his  release. Perhaps  Gibbons wasn't fond of Lind as well, for whatever reasons. Maybe a guy like Thigpen gets a new lease on life as well.

Maybe a guy like Thigpen gets a new lease on life as well.

Thigpen's going to have to get his OPS at least over .600 in AAA if he wants to play in the majors again - I don't think it's fair to imply he's being held back by anyone.

He's now had about as many ABs in AAA this year as he did last (179 last, 174 this)- he's got almost 50% more K's (23 to 33), and only about 70% as many BBs (17 down to 12).   Not too sure what happened, but somethings not right when you go from about 2:1 K:BB to almost 3:1.

Tenace was actually the hitting coach in 1990 and 1991. He was the bench coach from 1992-1997.

Slight correction to your correction: Tenace was the bullpen coach in 1996 and 1997.  The team elected not to have a bench coach during those years.

This recent good news about Marcum doesn't really appease me; I just feel he's going to eventually injure it anyway. If the Jays are completely out of it  in the next month or two, I would shut him down and have him undergo TJ surgery.

According to the Wiki page for Tommy John surgery:

In 2002 the results of a large study of young pitchers was published[4]. In this work, 426 pitchers aged 9 to 14 were followed for a year and questioned as to their throwing volume, pitch type, and their throwing mechanics were examined. Using throwing 200 or less pitches in a season as a reference, those players who threw 201-400, 401-600, 601-800, and 800+ pitches were at an increased risk of 63%, 181%, 234%, and 161% respectively. Considering the types of pitches thrown showed a smaller effect: throwing a slider was associated with an 86% increased chance of elbow injury while throwing a curve ball was associated with an increase in shoulder pain.


Based on that, I have two half-serious questions:

1) If you're a GM or a minor league director, why not just make pitchers undergo the surgery as soon as they become pros if they have thrown too many pitches in high school or if they throw certain types of pitches (usually slider/change).
2) Doesn't  TJ surgery technically count as "performance enhancing"?

1) If you're a GM or a minor league director, why not just make pitchers undergo the surgery as soon as they become pros if they have thrown too many pitches in high school or if they throw certain types of pitches (usually slider/change).

Recovery isn't guaranteed and it also comes back to option value (amazing how much does). You can try rest / recovery and if it fails, then go ahead and try Tommy John.  The reverse isn't possible.

2) Doesn't  TJ surgery technically count as "performance enhancing"?

Not sure why the qualifier technically.  Of course it is performance enhancing.  The problem isn't with performance enhancements as a large percentage of what players do is an attempt at performance enhancement: personal trainers, energy drinks, protein shakes / powders, etc.

The problem is an artificially drawn line (but a line) that gets crossed between socially accepted performance enhancements and socially unacceptable enhancements.  This line is usually couched in terms like natural and safe.  However, lasik surgery pushes the boundary of natural in many instances (20/10 vision is essentially beyond normal by it's very definition) and the risks associated with many of the banned performance enhancements can be considered minor when compared with some of the risks associated with playing the sport itself.  For example, Tommy John surgery is almost seen as an occupational expectation for pitchers with lengthy careers - slight exaggeration, of course.

Beyond the sport itself, you've also got the risk factors associated with the legal supplements.  Some of the legal supplements that are out there (protein powders) have limited, if any regulation, and as a result can be very harmful due more to unsafe / inconsistent packaging than anything else.

Thigpen's going to have to get his OPS at least over .600 in AAA if he wants to play in the majors again - I don't think it's fair to imply he's being held back by anyone.

Using a  half year   sample size is very poor practice. Thigpen has a career minor league .772 OPS  , utilizing a larger sample size generally results in better projections.  Also OPS  has its limitations with a guy like Thigpen , by combining  on base % and slugging it's generally felt that on base % is improperly evaluated by this metric. Thigpen who hits for a relatively high average and draws a lot of walks and conversely doesn't hit for power is not properly evaluated by OPS. Also one needs to consider positional adjustments, the hitting standards for catchers are much lower than for say first basemen. Case in point  MLB average EQA ( a metric which does a better   job of capturing the value of on  base % ) for catchers is .252. Thigpen was projected by BP to have a .245 EQA in the majors for 2008.

Listen the guy is not the reincarnation of Johnny Bench, and just maybe Gibby is absolutely right about his defensive deficiencies  ,  but he does project by most superior measurements as a legitimate prospect. Also having to play for a manager  that seems to have written you off at your best  position can't be that easy.

 

Listen the guy is not the reincarnation of Johnny Bench

Good thing , too! Imagine how awkward that could be given that Bench ain't, you know, so much dead or anything!

;-)

Well let's just say he not the "clone" of Johnny Bench  then (my knowledge of dead catchers is sadly lacking).

The Jays' handling of Thigpen is pretty weird. I can understand moving him away from being a full-time catcher, given some of the other catching prospects in the system and the fact he can, apparently, play other positions well. But he's played all of 4 games at third and one at second, with another 10 at first.  While a guy who can play catcher, third, maybe some outfield, is pretty valuable, a guy who can catch and play first is... Jason Phillips? Not inspiring, anyway, given his offence. If he's not a catcher and he can't play anything else, then he's a weak-hitting backup first baseman, for which there usually isn't a lot of demand in the majors. Well, outside of the Yankees, anyway.

Great interview with Keith Law from the Drunk Jays:

http://www.thescore.ca/programs/drunkjaysfans/podcast/DJFEp08.mp3

 

An enjoyable listen, although I find Law a bit glib when it comes to discussing the Jays. The only substantial issue I had with his comments was his criticism of Brad Arnsberg (Law cited McGowan and AJ's lack of success this year to bolster his argument that Arnsberg could have been fired too). To me, that's cherry-picking. For the most part, the Jays pitching has been great this year (third in AL team ERA at 3.61). What about Halladay, Marcum, Litsch, and pretty much the entire bullpen? And although McGowan has struggled lately, overall his numbers aren't bad, and he could still end up having a good year.

Yea I found that interview extremely unprofessional. You can just feel Law's hate for JP and considering that JP rarely even responds to the attacks, Law just comes off looking very petty. I mean he's asking why Whitt and Peavy were fired. Um, how about that they suck at their jobs? Whitt has no prior coaching or managing experience except for Team Canada, but Cito should be forced to keep him just because he's "Mr. Blue Jay"? Law just comes off really desperate to take jabs at JP whenever possible. I wonder what happened for him to hold a grudge for so long.

According to BDD (though a crude analysis), Matt Stairs may have a point with regard to (particularly) Rios' loss of pull power this year and the Denbo effect.

does anyone know why Law hates JP so? It just never ends with him, and he takes every opportunity to drive the knife into JP.

Using a  half year   sample size is very poor practice. Thigpen has a career minor league .772 OPS  , utilizing a larger sample size generally results in better projections.  Also OPS  has its limitations with a guy like Thigpen , by combining  on base % and slugging it's generally felt that on base % is improperly evaluated by this metric. Thigpen who hits for a relatively high average and draws a lot of walks and conversely doesn't hit for power is not properly evaluated by OPS. Also one needs to consider positional adjustments, the hitting standards for catchers are much lower than for say first basemen. Case in point  MLB average EQA ( a metric which does a better   job of capturing the value of on  base % ) for catchers is .252. Thigpen was projected by BP to have a .245 EQA in the majors for 2008.

Very poor practice is an extreme exaggeration.  A half-year sample size is definitely not always the best to use, however in the case of extreme performances, a half-year sample size starts to take on more significance.  The likelihood of a major-league caliber hitter only putting up a .574 in close to 200 AAA PAs is really small.

As to Thigpen's career minor #'s, those are inflated by his solid start to his minor league career.  Thigpen's year-end OPS has steadily decreased each year of his career (.904, .797, .775, .739, .574) - by taking his overall OPS, you're insinuating that his .904 in low A back in 2004 carries equal weight as a predictor of his MLB performance as his performance this year (PAs are similar).

Furthermore, as you state, OPS can undervalue a player like Thigpen, who traditionally provides more value through getting on base than he does through slugging.  Similar to his OPS, his OBP has steadily declined during his career in the minors (.386, .380, .361, .348, .271).  And, as I stated, his BB rate is looking really bad this year and he's striking out more, both of which are leading to his OBP of .271 - which no matter how you value his offensive performance (RC, EQA, OPS, whatever) will translate to below replacement-level value at the major league level.

As to the projections - I agree, Thigpen was not expected to do this horribly this year.  However, something has changed - he's grounding into twice as many double-plays, not taking nearly as many walks, and striking out a lot more.  I don't know what his line-drive rates or anything are (as I can't find them for the minors), but after a sample-size of close to 200, those numbers indicate a changed approach at the plate - probably more grounders and less-selective swinging.

Also having to play for a manager  that seems to have written you off at your best  position can't be that easy.

Thigpen has spent about a week with the Jays this year - almost all his time has been spent at AAA, where he plays catcher a significant majority of the time (in 32 of his 46 games).  If Gibbons is able to impact his performance in AAA that significantly, Thigpen has a lot bigger problems.

Pitchers adjust to hitters. Time for Thigpen to show he can adjust back. If he doesn't... well, the writing's on the wall.

 

Thigpen has spent about a week with the Jays this year - almost all his time has been spent at AAA, where he plays catcher a significant majority of the time (in 32 of his 46 games).  If Gibbons is able to impact his performance in AAA that significantly, Thigpen has a lot bigger problems.

Originally I had organization verses manager. I should have left it the same.

However, something has changed - he's grounding into twice as many double-plays, not taking nearly as many walks, and striking out a lot more.  I don't know what his line-drive rates or anything are (as I can't find them for the minors), but after a sample-size of close to 200, those numbers indicate a changed approach at the plate - probably more grounders and less-selective swinging.

Again far too much emphasis on a small sample size,  for what is in essence 1/3 of a season. You seem like quite a bright fellow , spend some time here, particularly on this thread. This site is not for the casual fan which you don't seem to be, after a while you'll  see what I'm talking about.

You seem like quite a bright fellow , spend some time here, particularly on this thread. This site is not for the casual fan which you don't seem to be, after a while you'll  see what I'm talking about.

Holy frickin' condescending bull sh*t, batman.  You're a riot.

Sorry I didn't mean to be condescending. I honestly think CJF is very bright, and the " Book" blog is certainly not for everybody. It's not the kind off stuff the average fan generally likes. Perhaps it would have been best  to just E-Mail him.

 
 

According to BDD (though a crude analysis),

What's so crude about this analysis ? Hale is one of the best bloggers out there regarding the Jays. His site the Mockingbird is outstanding ( I read it daily), particularly his pitch/fx reports. Frankly I find your denigration of his work , calling it "crude" to be quite condescending. I won't go into various comic book histrionics  my friend, but as  they say, people who live in glass houses should not throw stones.