A team that never strikes out, a team that always makes contact, a team
that lays down lots of bunts and steals lots of bases and executes many
a hit-and-run. I'm sure I'm not the only one who remembers people
SCREAMING for this to happen back in 04/05. Here you are, boneheads.
Enjoy.
- King Ryan, 11 June 2008
The Blue Jays have the 12th best offense in the American League. They are able to outscore the Kansas City Royals and the Seattle Mariners. Its been a while since we've seen a team that had this much trouble scoring runs.
We have to go back to the final year of Cito Gaston's lengthy reign in the Blue Jays dugout. His 1997 team scored fewer runs than any other team in the AL, and Gaston was finally cut loose in the final week of the season. I take a back seat to no one in my overall admiration for the work Gaston did in Toronto, but by 1997 he had reached his Best By date and then some. I think most managers have a limited shelf life by definition, especially if they've been successful. If they've been successful, it's generally because the needs of the team meshed nicely with their particular strengths. That accomplished, the needs of the team invariably change. And by 1997, Gaston had also fallen prey to one of the oldest occupational hazards of the job - unreasonable loyalty to the players he had won with in the past. That takes down almost everyone who holds a job long enough, and it got Gaston but good.
Anyway, how do the 2008 Jays stack up against the 1997 edition? Figures in parenthese are OPS+.
Catcher - Benito Santiago (73) and Charlie O'Brien (73) vs Gregg Zaun (101) and Rod Barajas (124) . A big edge for this year's model, even though it's extremely unlikely that Barajas will continue to hit at this level.
Firs Base - Carlos Delgado (127) vs Lyle Overbay (106). This was Delgado's first season as the everyday first baseman, his second as a regular. He wasn't quite Carlos Delgado yet, but he was still way better than anyone on the current team. As well as being exactly the type of hitter the current team needs - a guy who hits 30 homers and strikes out 150 times. Overbay's a solid player and a better defender, but he's a complementary bat. A good complementary bat, but this is a position where you have a chance to play a Big Scary Bat.
Second Base - Carlos Garcia (47) vs Aaron Hill (87). As disappointing as Aaron Hill's injury-interrupted year has been so far, we can still give heartfelt thanks for the fact that he is not Carlos Garcia.
Third Base - Ed Sprague (80) vs Scott Rolen (123). While I lament the loss of Troy Glaus, whose skill set as a hitter is a far better fit for the current team's requirements than Rolen's - I can't really complain. The new guy is a tremendous defensive player, and a very fine complementary bat. At any rate, a massive upgrade on Ed Sprague, who was coming off a year in which he had hit 36 homers and was busy confirming what everyone already knew - that it was a fluke.
Shortstop - Alex Gonzalez (80) vs David Eckstein (94). Gonzalez was a superb defensive player, but Eckstein continues to be a much better hitter.
Left Field - Shawn Green (110) and Jose Cruz (101) vs Shannon Stewart (73) and Brad Wilkerson (90). The 1997 outfield was somewhat unsettled, but it was mainly Green-Nixon-Merced for the first two thirds of the season, and Cruz-Stewart-Green for the final six-eight weeks.
Centre Field - Otis Nixon (72) and Shannon Stewart (113) vs Vernon Wells (110). If Gord Ash hadn't signed Otis Nixon for two years before 1996, Stewart would have taken the job much sooner than he actually did and this would be much closer to being a wash.
Right Field - Orlando Merced (101) vs Alex Rios (93). I can't believe that Alex Rios hasn't even been as good as Orlando Merced. My mind struggles to assimllate this information. God, I hated having Orlando Merced on the team...
Designated Hitter - Joe Carter (77) vs Matt Stairs (105). At age 37, Carter couldn't get his OBP above .300 or his slugging above .400. And all of his 612 at bats came in either the 3rd or 4th spot in the batting order. Yikes.
What's different? Here's the first thing that comes to my mind - the 1997 lineup had some massive, massive holes - but they also had four exciting young hitters, one of whom (Delgado) was already a more potent offensive force than anyone on the current squad. And by the end of the year, all four of those young hitters were in the lineup. The rest of the 1997 infield was dreadful, however, and there was very little in the way of alternatives for Gaston to turn to. Not that he would have pulled the plug on Sprague anyway, and not that he should have pulled the plug on Gonzalez, who was as effective a defender as John McDonald without essentially forcing you to play without a DH (because you have what might as well be a pitcher in the batting order.) He did try to replace Garcia, with Tilson Brito and Mariano Duncan. But they were just as bad as Garcia, believe it or not. The GM has to take the heat for most of that.
This year's bunch doesn't have the same holes. Left field has been the weakest position - and the fact that left field has been the weakest position is very weird and disturbing - but there's nothing in the current lineup as amazingly bad as what the 1997 team had at second base, designated hitter, and centre field (for much of the year.)
There's just no one here who's really good. It's a lineup of second bananas. I don't think we're going to see much more of Shannon Stewart. I think we're going to see a Wilkerson/Mench platoon going forward, and it should end up being adequate. I don't think Adam Lind would be a very big upgrade on that. It also seems pretty clear that the organization has gone back to its original plan regarding Lind. As you recall, Lind started 2006 playing A ball, and even though he shot through AA and AAA on his way to an impressive September showing in the major leagues, the organization still wanted him to spend 2007 in AAA. They clearly felt he needed to consolidate the gains he'd made in 2006. Reed Johnson's injury forced Lind to spend much of 2007 struggling at the major league level. And so they've quite clearly decided that 2008 will be his Consolidate The Progress year. I don't think it has anything to do with service time or the free agent clock because I don't think anyone seriously believes Adam Lind is going to be that good a player that it's worth worrying about anyway. I think he's the new Trot Nixon, myself, and we should all be quite pleased if he turns out that well.
Vernon Wells is a slightly better version of Joe Carter, right down to his impatience at the plate and his unhappy tendency to hit infield popups. But they do beat the hell out of infield grounders - there's more than enough guys on the team who hit those.
Gibbons is quite clearly being driven out of his mind by this group, and has been trying batting order tweaks, starting baserunners, and some other odd stratagems. I'd tweak the batting order myself - I'd hit Overbay second, because his biggest strength is his ability to get on base. After that, I think I'd just go RLRL for a while - Wells Stairs, Rolen,Wilkerson, Hill, Zaun, Eck. Not that it would make a whole lot of difference anyway.
Is there a solution? Besides sitting around and waiting for the Amazing Snider-Man... which is unlikely to be before next September?
Sure there is. Alex Rios and Aaron Hill. If they don't heat up, if they don't have big second halves, this team will be hard pressed to play .500 ball.
But here's the thing - if they do get hot, this team could still be playing in October. Really. The pitching is that good.
Today is a big Cultural Day in my household. Today is Bloomsday, of course - the action, such as it is, of James Joyce's Ulysses is set on the 16th of June 1904. I spent much of the 1980s writing and thinking about Joyce in general, and Ulysses in particular.
And on this day in 1965, Bob Dylan and six other musicians - Mike Bloomfield, Paul Griffin, Joe Macho, Bobby Gregg, Bruce Langhorne, and Al Kooper - spent the afternoon at Columbia's Studio A in New York working on a new Dylan composition. They had a terrible time trying to get it right. They tried it fifteen different times in all, and only once - on the fourth attempt - did they even make it all the way to the end. It kept getting away from them, they kept losing the thread - and it's daunting to think how close Dylan might have come to simply giving up on the song and scrapping it altogether, and perhaps cannibalizing a few lines here and a few lines there to use elsewhere.
But Take 4 was a winner.
Once upon a time you looked so fine
Threw the bums a dime in your prime
Didn't you?
- King Ryan, 11 June 2008
The Blue Jays have the 12th best offense in the American League. They are able to outscore the Kansas City Royals and the Seattle Mariners. Its been a while since we've seen a team that had this much trouble scoring runs.
We have to go back to the final year of Cito Gaston's lengthy reign in the Blue Jays dugout. His 1997 team scored fewer runs than any other team in the AL, and Gaston was finally cut loose in the final week of the season. I take a back seat to no one in my overall admiration for the work Gaston did in Toronto, but by 1997 he had reached his Best By date and then some. I think most managers have a limited shelf life by definition, especially if they've been successful. If they've been successful, it's generally because the needs of the team meshed nicely with their particular strengths. That accomplished, the needs of the team invariably change. And by 1997, Gaston had also fallen prey to one of the oldest occupational hazards of the job - unreasonable loyalty to the players he had won with in the past. That takes down almost everyone who holds a job long enough, and it got Gaston but good.
Anyway, how do the 2008 Jays stack up against the 1997 edition? Figures in parenthese are OPS+.
Catcher - Benito Santiago (73) and Charlie O'Brien (73) vs Gregg Zaun (101) and Rod Barajas (124) . A big edge for this year's model, even though it's extremely unlikely that Barajas will continue to hit at this level.
Firs Base - Carlos Delgado (127) vs Lyle Overbay (106). This was Delgado's first season as the everyday first baseman, his second as a regular. He wasn't quite Carlos Delgado yet, but he was still way better than anyone on the current team. As well as being exactly the type of hitter the current team needs - a guy who hits 30 homers and strikes out 150 times. Overbay's a solid player and a better defender, but he's a complementary bat. A good complementary bat, but this is a position where you have a chance to play a Big Scary Bat.
Second Base - Carlos Garcia (47) vs Aaron Hill (87). As disappointing as Aaron Hill's injury-interrupted year has been so far, we can still give heartfelt thanks for the fact that he is not Carlos Garcia.
Third Base - Ed Sprague (80) vs Scott Rolen (123). While I lament the loss of Troy Glaus, whose skill set as a hitter is a far better fit for the current team's requirements than Rolen's - I can't really complain. The new guy is a tremendous defensive player, and a very fine complementary bat. At any rate, a massive upgrade on Ed Sprague, who was coming off a year in which he had hit 36 homers and was busy confirming what everyone already knew - that it was a fluke.
Shortstop - Alex Gonzalez (80) vs David Eckstein (94). Gonzalez was a superb defensive player, but Eckstein continues to be a much better hitter.
Left Field - Shawn Green (110) and Jose Cruz (101) vs Shannon Stewart (73) and Brad Wilkerson (90). The 1997 outfield was somewhat unsettled, but it was mainly Green-Nixon-Merced for the first two thirds of the season, and Cruz-Stewart-Green for the final six-eight weeks.
Centre Field - Otis Nixon (72) and Shannon Stewart (113) vs Vernon Wells (110). If Gord Ash hadn't signed Otis Nixon for two years before 1996, Stewart would have taken the job much sooner than he actually did and this would be much closer to being a wash.
Right Field - Orlando Merced (101) vs Alex Rios (93). I can't believe that Alex Rios hasn't even been as good as Orlando Merced. My mind struggles to assimllate this information. God, I hated having Orlando Merced on the team...
Designated Hitter - Joe Carter (77) vs Matt Stairs (105). At age 37, Carter couldn't get his OBP above .300 or his slugging above .400. And all of his 612 at bats came in either the 3rd or 4th spot in the batting order. Yikes.
What's different? Here's the first thing that comes to my mind - the 1997 lineup had some massive, massive holes - but they also had four exciting young hitters, one of whom (Delgado) was already a more potent offensive force than anyone on the current squad. And by the end of the year, all four of those young hitters were in the lineup. The rest of the 1997 infield was dreadful, however, and there was very little in the way of alternatives for Gaston to turn to. Not that he would have pulled the plug on Sprague anyway, and not that he should have pulled the plug on Gonzalez, who was as effective a defender as John McDonald without essentially forcing you to play without a DH (because you have what might as well be a pitcher in the batting order.) He did try to replace Garcia, with Tilson Brito and Mariano Duncan. But they were just as bad as Garcia, believe it or not. The GM has to take the heat for most of that.
This year's bunch doesn't have the same holes. Left field has been the weakest position - and the fact that left field has been the weakest position is very weird and disturbing - but there's nothing in the current lineup as amazingly bad as what the 1997 team had at second base, designated hitter, and centre field (for much of the year.)
There's just no one here who's really good. It's a lineup of second bananas. I don't think we're going to see much more of Shannon Stewart. I think we're going to see a Wilkerson/Mench platoon going forward, and it should end up being adequate. I don't think Adam Lind would be a very big upgrade on that. It also seems pretty clear that the organization has gone back to its original plan regarding Lind. As you recall, Lind started 2006 playing A ball, and even though he shot through AA and AAA on his way to an impressive September showing in the major leagues, the organization still wanted him to spend 2007 in AAA. They clearly felt he needed to consolidate the gains he'd made in 2006. Reed Johnson's injury forced Lind to spend much of 2007 struggling at the major league level. And so they've quite clearly decided that 2008 will be his Consolidate The Progress year. I don't think it has anything to do with service time or the free agent clock because I don't think anyone seriously believes Adam Lind is going to be that good a player that it's worth worrying about anyway. I think he's the new Trot Nixon, myself, and we should all be quite pleased if he turns out that well.
Vernon Wells is a slightly better version of Joe Carter, right down to his impatience at the plate and his unhappy tendency to hit infield popups. But they do beat the hell out of infield grounders - there's more than enough guys on the team who hit those.
Gibbons is quite clearly being driven out of his mind by this group, and has been trying batting order tweaks, starting baserunners, and some other odd stratagems. I'd tweak the batting order myself - I'd hit Overbay second, because his biggest strength is his ability to get on base. After that, I think I'd just go RLRL for a while - Wells Stairs, Rolen,Wilkerson, Hill, Zaun, Eck. Not that it would make a whole lot of difference anyway.
Is there a solution? Besides sitting around and waiting for the Amazing Snider-Man... which is unlikely to be before next September?
Sure there is. Alex Rios and Aaron Hill. If they don't heat up, if they don't have big second halves, this team will be hard pressed to play .500 ball.
But here's the thing - if they do get hot, this team could still be playing in October. Really. The pitching is that good.
Today is a big Cultural Day in my household. Today is Bloomsday, of course - the action, such as it is, of James Joyce's Ulysses is set on the 16th of June 1904. I spent much of the 1980s writing and thinking about Joyce in general, and Ulysses in particular.
And on this day in 1965, Bob Dylan and six other musicians - Mike Bloomfield, Paul Griffin, Joe Macho, Bobby Gregg, Bruce Langhorne, and Al Kooper - spent the afternoon at Columbia's Studio A in New York working on a new Dylan composition. They had a terrible time trying to get it right. They tried it fifteen different times in all, and only once - on the fourth attempt - did they even make it all the way to the end. It kept getting away from them, they kept losing the thread - and it's daunting to think how close Dylan might have come to simply giving up on the song and scrapping it altogether, and perhaps cannibalizing a few lines here and a few lines there to use elsewhere.
But Take 4 was a winner.
Once upon a time you looked so fine
Threw the bums a dime in your prime
Didn't you?
