Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Notes on A Dysfunctional Offense

Dewey was wondering if the Blue jays lead the majors in runners left on base. No, it just seems that way.

By popular demand, a Data Table!

The teams are listed by the number of runs they score per game. You will notice that the Blue Jays are second in the AL in people left on base - the Rangers, who score more runs than anyone else in the league, also leave more runners on base. That is quite normal.

What the Blue Jays are doing is not.

                                                                         Est. Base     Lost Surviving    
Team              RPG   HR  RBI  AVG   SLG   SB CS  BB  HBP GDP OBP  LOB  Runners OE 1  BRs   BRs    OE 2
                                                                    
Texas             5.55  81  346  .284  .465  35  8  244  21  45 .354  511   923   .391   53    870   .415
Boston            5.06  71  315  .282  .444  58 12  245  29  70 .357  501   910   .367   82    828   .403
Chicago White Sox 4.77  83  299  .259  .429  22 11  228  26  63 .335  443   820   .372   74    746   .409
Detroit           4.65  62  284  .259  .411  21  7  227  19  56 .333  445   800   .366   63    737   .398
Tampa Bay         4.63  66  284  .264  .412  72 25  225  18  43 .335  452   817   .362   68    749   .395
Minnesota         4.59  40  281  .270  .391  45 19  182   9  50 .325  437   791   .372   69    722   .407
NY Yankees        4.58  65  286  .273  .429  31 14  202  27  58 .340  462   830   .353   72    758   .387
AL AVERAGE        4.50  59  276  .261  .404  41 15  215  21  53 .331  457   810   .356   68    742   .389
Oakland           4.49  46  268  .252  .379  29  8  249  14  50 .331  478   808   .350   58    750   .377
Cleveland         4.42  58  271  .240  .381  33 10  219  41  45 .320  446   773   .366   55    718   .394
LA Angels         4.22  54  260  .256  .383  53 18  193  21  58 .320  442   778   .352   76    702   .390
Baltimore         4.21  67  251  .252  .407  43 20  206  13  41 .320  423   756   .351   61    695   .381
Toronto           4.14  41  253  .262  .377  46 22  255  26  76 .341  504   868   .315   98    770   .355
Seattle           4.00  53  240  .249  .377  46 13  178   9  49 .306  428   728   .352   62    666   .384
Kansas City       3.70  39  223  .257  .372  36 20  154  17  44 .310  428   736   .322   64    672   .353
                                                                
Chicago Cubs      5.50  70  333  .282  .445  42 17  262  25  47 .361  513   920   .383   64    856   .411
Philadelphia      5.29  93  331  .263  .454  43  7  245  25  39 .341  481   859   .400   46    813   .423
Florida           4.97  95  299  .261  .457  31 11  198  19  34 .326  438   782   .400   45    737   .425
Pittsburgh        4.83  62  295  .258  .402  18  7  210  27  38 .327  470   815   .379   45    770   .401
Arizona           4.78  71  291  .250  .427  24  8  242  22  39 .330  449   796   .384   47    749   .409
NY Mets           4.68  53  275  .254  .392  62 14  244  12  46 .330  470   797   .364   60    737   .393
St. Louis         4.66  58  289  .273  .412  28 13  278  16  59 .356  524   901   .336   72    829   .366
Atlanta           4.66  64  285  .275  .427  25 10  256  13  60 .352  519   874   .341   70    804   .371
Cincinnati        4.60  74  282  .255  .415  48 22  254  14  42 .333  481   831   .360   64    767   .390
NL AVERAGE        4.55  63  276  .259  .410  39 14  227  21  47 .332  474   816   .356   61    755   .384
Houston           4.50  64  272  .264  .416  64 20  177  18  37 .322  427   769   .375   57    712   .404
Milwaukee         4.41  70  266  .252  .413  44 17  203  34  36 .323  464   781   .356   53    728   .382
LA Dodgers        4.33  43  248  .264  .382  54 20  209  15  60 .332  438   783   .349   80    703   .388
Colorado          4.16  50  252  .254  .393  47 14  219  20  48 .326  482   796   .329   62    734   .357
San Francisco     4.09  46  255  .262  .403  55 21  197  21  55 .326  467   797   .329   76    721   .363
San Diego         3.66  53  228  .242  .369  21  6  229  25  46 .316  507   803   .296   52    751   .317
Washington        3.62  42  222  .232  .348  23 13  215  31  62 .309  455   746   .315   75    671   .350

Let me explain some of the more cryptic headers. Estimated Base Runners simply adds a teams hits and walks and hit by pitches. This doesn't account for everyone who reaches base - guys reach on errors as well, which appear as outs in the batting record. We're hoping that they're fairly even at this point in the season. As a rule, though, RH batters reach base on error more often than LH batters, and Toronto does have a somewhat RH heavy lineup.

The Jays are 3rd in the league in Estimated Base Runners with 868, trailing only Texas and Boston. No surprise there - they're third in ONP, behind the same two teams. Alas, they have managed to get only 273 of those base runners safely home. If I divide those runs by the number of BaseRunners, I get .315 - which I'm calling Offensive Efficiency to save time. That .315 figure is the worst in the American League, and comes very close to being the worst in the majors.

There are some obvious reasons for this. The Blue Jays have lost more base runners through double plays and caught stealing than any other team in the majors. When we take those lost runners out of the picture - generallly 30 more lost base runners than the other AL teams - they're still third in the league in number of runners, but much closer to the middle of the pack. They're still not very good at turning those Runners into Runs (that's the OE 2 column, which divides Runs Scored by Surviving Base Runners), but the gap isn't as wide.

The problem is pretty obvious. It's a Power Shortage. Toronto is 13th in the league in Slugging. They're 12th in the league in Home Runs. They're even below the league average in hitting doubles, which absolutely boggles the mind. There are only so many runs you can score by hitting singles.

Weird things are afoot, and the weirdest of all is that the more runs are being scored in the National League than the American League.

Posted by Magpie on Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 09:55 PM EDT.

Notes on A Dysfunctional Offense | 25 comments | Create New Account

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ayjackson - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#186988) #

Considering the Jays problems in cashing in baserunners it's noteworthy that one Adam Lind sports the following AAA lines:

.398/.435/.627 with runners on base
.453/.475/.717 with runners in scoring position
.329/.384/.527 overall (prior to tonight's effort)

Too bad he's blocked right now (shockingly) or we'd have to Free him.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#186993) #

The Jays may be amongst the league leaders in Caught Stealing, but their success rate of 67.8% is pretty much break even from the run creation/costing perspective.

Also, the players stealing the most bags - Rios, Scutaro, Rolen and Hill - are a combined 28/37 for 75.7% which, all things being equal, should have a positive affect on run expectancy. For his part, and for all he's being doing well lately, Brad Wilkerson should probably not attempt to steal any more.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#186994) #

Brad Wilkerson should probably not attempt to steal any more.

I have to think tonight was supposed to be a hit and run, but Inglett got a pitch that was going to hit him before he could hit it.

King Ryan - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#186995) #

Frankly, I wouldn't be completely opposed to never seeing a hit-and-run again.

I did a fairly similar thing to Magpie. I simply divided hits by runs to see how many hits each team requires to score a run. I did this before reading Magpie's piece so it doesn't add any additional information, but damn it, I spent time on it so I'm posting it!

Team		H/R
Cleveland	1.813
Texas		1.823
ChiSox		1.856
Detroit		1.891
Boston		1.904
Oakland		1.926
Tampa Bay	1.939
AVERAGE		1.987
Baltimore	2.026
Minnesota	2.041
New York	2.051
Los Angeles	2.058
Seattle		2.113
Toronto		2.150
Kansas City	2.384

The Jays have had 74 more base-hits than the Indians have had, yet have scored 10 less runs. Giving the Jays the average H/R number of 1.987, the Jays would have 295 runs, as apposed to the 273 they actually have.

These numbers do not include McGowan's gem today, but the 3.0 isn't going to help . . .

dan gordon - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 01:51 AM EDT (#186997) #

Great analysis. Thanks. Confirms my subjective feelings from watching this year that the Jays are losing an awful lot of baserunners. Then I noticed that your lost baserunners total just included GDP and CS. They have also lost a lot of baserunners by running into outs. There have been many, many times this year that a Jay runner has been out trying to stretch a single into a double, or trying to score, or tring to go first to third, or getting caught between bases when a throw is cut off. I would love to see the total number of baserunners the Jays have lost including all of those. This wanton destruction of baserunners is extremely frustrating. Reminds me of some of Tony Fernandez' old baserunning exploits. Combined with the inability to hit with runners on, I have found this team so frustrating that lately I have greatly reduced my viewing of the games. I think a lot of the CS are arising from blown hit and run plays. Something that I found even more alarrming is that JP said on the radio tonight that he thinks John Gibbons is managing better than he ever has. I think the biggest change is that he is running, using the hit and run, etc a lot more, so it looks like JP approves of it. Looks to me like it is hurting the team, especially the blown hit and runs.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#186998) #

I think the biggest change is that he is running, using the hit and run, etc a lot more,

I think so, too. I think it's because all the double plays (they lead the majors) are making him crazy. The only way to avoid it is to start the runners, or drop down bunts. They're even bunting more - 19 SH this season is third in the AL.

What this team needs is a good hitter who'll strike out 150 times a year and not make so much damn contact! Strikeouts do not destroy innings the way ground balls to the shortstop do.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 02:09 AM EDT (#186999) #

And now that I think to look, the Blue Jays really don't strike out very often. Seattle and the Yankees are the only teams in the league that strike out less often. The Jays hitters have struck out 383 times. Texas has the highest scoring team in the majors, and their hitters have struck out a whopping 472 times.

Texas would be fourth in the National League in batter's strikeouts, despite the absence of any pitchers in their batting order.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#187007) #

A slowish, right-handed lineup without much power and without the ability to execute the bunt and hit-and-run is likely to be quite inefficient.

Pistol - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#187009) #

Here are your double play 'leaders':

Player	AB	GDP	Rate
Kevin Mench	44	3	6.8%
Frank Thomas	60	3	5.0%
*Lyle Overbay	216	10	4.6%
*Matt Stairs	173	8	4.6%
Shannon Stewart	175	8	4.6%
Alexis Rios	265	11	4.2%
Vernon Wells	155	6	3.9%
John McDonald	27	1	3.7%
David Eckstein	159	5	3.1%
*Joe Inglett	68	2	2.9%
Scott Rolen	157	4	2.5%
Rod Barajas	121	3	2.5%
#Gregg Zaun	125	3	2.4%
Marco Scutaro	182	4	2.2%
*Brad Wilkerson	96	2	2.1%
Aaron Hill	205	4	2.0%

It'd be interesting to see what the rates were if you looked at it based on double play opportunities (which I have no idea on how to get to).

Parker - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#187011) #

Nice to see that Toronto leads the AL in walks. I imagine a lot of those baserunners are erased by the league-leading GDP numbers, though.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#187013) #

Alex Rios has had 100 PAs with a runner on first. Assuming that about 2/3 of them have occurred with 0 or 1 out, you'd get 11 DPs in 67 opportunities. The estimate of opportunities might be a little low because most of Rios' PAs with runners on first and GIDPs were in the 3 slot, and a disproportionate number of those will occur with 0 or 1 out due to the dynamics of the first inning.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#187014) #

Nice to see that Toronto leads the AL in walks. I imagine a lot of those baserunners are erased by the league-leading GDP numbers, though.

Walks are definitely a nice way to prop up OBP, but only if they come as a byproduct of a thoughtful approach to batting rather than an end goal in and of themselves. Rance Mulliniks and Jesse Barfield have been openly critical of the passive nature of many of the Jays' hitters, watching them take hittable first-pitch fastballs because they seemingly have the intent to go deep into the count.

I wonder if the team's OBP gains are too costly given their apparent effects on SLG. I look at Lyle Overbay as being symptomatic of this new team approach to hitting. He's walking at an unprecedented rate and while you hate to criticize a guy with a .380 OBP, he's struggling to keep his SLG over .400. My observation, limited as it is, is that he is letting a ton of early-count hittable pitches go by. You'd almost think the team batting coach were Lance Blankenship.

Dewey - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#187017) #

Wow! What a data table! Far exceeds my expectations/hopes, Magpie.

And I'm all aflutter: it's the first time my name and the word "popular" have ever been associated on this site. But I'll take it.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#187019) #

I'll take Overbay's 2008. His slugging percentage relative to league isn't at his career mark, but is completely within normal season-to-season variation. He is on pace to ground into 25 double plays, and that does significantly take away from his offensive value.

What is perhaps not appreciated is that the Jay pitching has benefited greatly from the team's superior defence. Overbay, Rolen, Rios, and Hill, are to varying extents, not contributing offensively the way that was expected or hoped for, but the total contributions have been significant. Stewart's total contribution unfortunately has been, as Elvis Costello once said, less than zero.

Anders - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#187022) #

Alexis Rios	265	11	4.2%
Aaron Hill	205	4	2.0%

It's funny - subjectively I would have thought this would have been reversed. I mean I've seen Rios ground into a lot of these double plays, but the way I think of Rios as a hitter and Hill as a hitter don't mesh with these numbers at all. Prior to this year anyway I would have said Rios hits a lot of line drives and fly balls, while Hill hit the ball hard and on the ground a lot - clearly the Hill approach is much more conducive to double plays.

Heck, last year Hill grounded into 21 double plays in 608 at bats, a 3.5% rate, while Rios grounded into 9 in 643 at bats, a 1.4% rate. So if you're scoring at home, Rios now has more DP this year than he did last year. The highest rate of his career was 3.3 before this as well - something is afoot, and I don't think its the obp of whoever's been hitting 1 and 2 (though I suppose Rios hit leadoff a lot last year, reducing his at bats with runners on first.

Digging a little deeper, Rios' ground ball percentage this year is 48%, 12% higher than last year. His LD% remains the same as his year to year results, but his gb/fb numbers are similar to his first two years of tantalizing but not reached potential.

Hill on the other hand has the lowest ground ball rate of his career at 35%, 5% less than last year, which was in turn 5% less than 2006. His line drive rate has fallen though, as have the rest of his numbers.

Its funny, Rios and Hill have, over the course of this season, basically switched styles as hitter.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#187028) #

Someone should tell Alex that this is his age-27 season. He should be building on the last two seasons and having his career year. This reversal to Alex-the-young-groundballer is not good. Strangely, he is striking out a career high clip, so there are all kinds of flaws that need work. The K's would make sense were he on pace for 30 homeruns rather than 7.

Are the K's just a byproduct of the passivity I commented on above? He is walking more than ever, so I'm guessing he's seeing more pitches than in the past. If so, this strategy is not paying dividends and may need to be revisited.

Jevant - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#187030) #

Is something wrong with Rios and Rolen? Why in the world are they sitting the day before an off-day, to be followed by another off-day Monday?

We need to BEAT the Mariners today. At 1-1 in the 8th, it seems unbelievable to me that Rios and Rolen are not in the game.

Unless they are hurt, this is (in my mind), inexcusable.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#187032) #

Rios is a bit beat up at the moment and the thinking is 2 days off in a row will help him a lot. Rolen has slumped a bit lately so the same might apply. Barajas just needed a day off due to his catching every game for two weeks straight.

There is a school of thought that two days off in a row is more helpful than two single days off. I figure that is where Gibbons is coming from here.

Jevant - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#187035) #

I don't really have a problem with Barajas, but I do have a problem with taking arguably 2 of our top 3 bats out in a game that we really needed.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#187045) #

Rios has actually been questionable for each of the last few games, although he's played them all. Rolen's just been scuffling lately, and he's had one day off since he got back.

You'll be delighted to hear that when Ibanez came to bat in the ninth inning, Seattle had gone hitless in their last 20 ABs with runners in scoring position.

Glad we could help you out with that.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#187047) #

Actually, it looked like Ibanez went down and got a pretty good pitch. It was the walks that were killers.

Eckstein had batted in the bottom of the sixth, and with a 1-0 lead entering the seventh, it probably would have been reasonable to bring in McDonald for defensive purposes.

King Ryan - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#187052) #

Magpie: "And now that I think to look, the Blue Jays really don't strike out very often. Seattle and the Yankees are the only teams in the league that strike out less often. The Jays hitters have struck out 383 times."

Much as I find it utterly painful to watch, I have to chuckle just a little bit because this team is EXACTLY the team that all those knucklehead radio-call-in self-appointed experts wanted. A team that never strikes out, a team that always makes contact, a team that lays down lots of bunts and steals lots of bases and executes many a hit-and-run. I'm sure I'm not the only one who remembers people SCREAMING for this to happen back in 04/05. Here you are, boneheads. Enjoy.

Personally, I'll take a million strikeouts and never seeing another hit-and-run if Alex Rios and Scott Rolen would just start hitting the ball over the fence again.

Pistol: "It'd be interesting to see what the rates were if you looked at it based on double play opportunities (which I have no idea on how to get to)."

This can easily be done using BB-Ref's PI Event Finder, a spreadsheet, and some free time.

The Blue Jays have had:

- 154 PA's with a runner on first, none out, and have hit into 22 double plays.
- 168 PA's with a runner on first, one out, and have hit into 27 double plays.
- 44 PA's with runners on first and second, none out: 8 double plays.
- 75 PA's with runners on first and second, one out: 13 double plays.
- 16 PA's with runners on first and third, none out: 0 double plays (yay!)
- 40 PA's with runners on first and third, one out: 6 double plays.
- 9 PA's with bases loaded, none out: 3 double plays (Egads.)
- 32 PA's with bases loaded, one out: 4 double plays.

Total: 538 situations, 83 double plays (not all on ground outs)

But that isn't what you asked for. To amalgamate all those situations and break down by batter:


Player			PA's	DP's	DP%	%TeamDP	%TeamPA

Adam	Lind		2	1	50.00	1.20	0.37
Kevin	Mench		9	3	33.33	3.61	1.67
Shannon	Stewart		40	9	22.50	10.84	7.43
Frank	Thomas		14	3	21.43	3.61	2.60
Vernon	Wells		35	7	20.00	8.43	6.51
Matt	Stairs		41	8	19.51	9.64	7.62
David	Eckstein	27	5	18.52	6.02	5.02
John	McDonald	6	1	16.67	1.20	1.12
Lyle	Overbay		63	10	15.87	12.05	11.71
Alex	Rios		71	11	15.49	13.25	13.20
Brad	Wilkerson	21	3	14.29	3.61	3.90
Joe	Inglett		14	2	14.29	2.41	2.60
Rod	Barajas		30	4	13.33	4.82	5.58
Scott	Rolen		31	4	12.90	4.82	5.76
Gregg	Zaun		25	3	12.00	3.61	4.65
Marco	Scutaro		53	5	9.43	6.02	9.85
Aaron	Hill		52	4	7.69	4.82	9.67
Curtis	Thigpen		1	0	0.00	0.00	0.19
Shawn	Camp		1	0	0.00	0.00	0.19
AJ	Burnett		1	0	0.00	0.00	0.19
Jorge	Valendia	1	0	0.00	0.00	0.19

TOTAL:			538	83	15.43	100.00	100.00


Upon request I can post the really gory details...

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#187056) #

Thanks, King Ryan. Stewart's number is just vile. His OPS+ doesn't completely capture his offensive ineptitude this year. DP% should be on the standard stat sheets.

Well done, KR.

King Ryan - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#187062) #

Alex Rios batting tendencies by year:

--2004--
GB%: 56.7
FB%: 22.8
Balls hit to right (approx.) : 38.9%
Balls hit to left (approx.): 38.6%
Balls fielded by LF: 24
Balls fielded by CF: 71
Balls fielded by RF: 73

--2005--
GB%: 48.8
FB%: 31.4
Balls hit to right (approx.) : 32.9%
Balls hit to left (approx.): 44.5%
Balls fielded by LF: 46
Balls fielded by CF: 67
Balls fielded by RF: 73

--2006--
GB%: 36.8
FB%: 41.6
Balls hit to right (approx.) : 30.5%
Balls hit to left (approx.): 45.7%
Balls fielded by LF: 60
Balls fielded by CF: 73
Balls fielded by RF: 65

--2007--
GB%: 35.8
FB%: 44.1
Balls hit to right (approx.) : 31.9%
Balls hit to left (approx.): 50.1%
Balls fielded by LF: 84
Balls fielded by CF: 115
Balls fielded by RF: 101

--2008--
GB%: 47.8
FB%: 31.9
Balls hit to right (approx.) : 32.1%
Balls hit to left (approx.): 51.7%
Balls fielded by LF: 26
Balls fielded by CF: 37
Balls fielded by RF: 41

We all remember the Rios of 2004. Constantly slapping the ball on the ground the other way, like a lanky right-handed Ichiro. Since then he has made gigantic strides to pull the ball more while not losing his opposite-field hitting ability, and to pull it into the air with authority. Even this year he is still pulling the ball, but he's gone back to smacking the ball on the ground for whatever reason. Most of his balls have gone to the shortstop or the 3B. Could it be the hitting coach? Rios needs to get back to the approach he had with Mickey Brantley.

lexomatic - Thursday, June 12 2008 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#187100) #

As for Rolen not hitting for power.. he IS hitting doubles. lots of 'em. He's on pace for 45. I see 2 possibilities -
1) Due to injuries, this is Rolen's new power level. The average, on base skills and defense are intact, but not the power. This may be due to damage or to a change in approach to avoid reocurrance.
2) He had surgery in the offseason and just hasn't fully recovered yet. The doubles are evidence theres' still power but it just isn't all the way back. 2nd half should see a rise in power (finishing around 15).
I'm hoping it's #2 obviously.
Outisde of his "clutch" hitting i don't have a problem with Rolen's performance compared to his teamates (I would of course love more homers though). I think people are panicing in his case due to the problems of the team.

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