Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

10 June 2008: Ugh

Bases loaded with none out in the 10th. The pessimist in me expected a 1-2-3 double play, but the Mariners had to 'settle' for the 3-2-3 double play.

Gregg Zaun will be back off the DL on Wednesday. But Barajas has been hot and the Jays haven't missed him at all. I suspect they'll settle into a 50/50 role over time, but for now the Jays should ride Barajas while he's going good.

Posted by Pistol on Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 08:21 AM EDT.

10 June 2008: Ugh | 42 comments | Create New Account

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mathesond - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#186933) #

Games like that - 10th innings like that - make me feel like it should be International Talk Like A Pirate Day (and I don't mean Willie Stargell). Arrrrgh!

Squiggy - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#186934) #

Losing 7 of 9 to the Orioles, Mariners, Yankees and Angels...only one good team among them. Very disappointing. JP will be on after the game tonight, it will be interesting to hear if he has changed his tune at all regarding his faith in Gibbons and the team personnel in general.

Dr. Zarco - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#186935) #

It's kind of weird, the more this goes on, the less I seem to blame Ricciardi. The guys he has brought in all seem very capable. Scutaro and Barajas were brilliant signings. There is just a huge lack of execution, especially when it matters most. I always want to blame Gibbons, perhaps just the atmosphere is not right. These guys all seem to be trying their darnest, they seem appropriately upset after each game. Even though Gibbons is largely not to blame, I do wonder if a change of some member of the coaching staff wouldn't lighten up/change things in the clubhouse, one that seems to be poisoned with a losing feeling.

That is despite the fact that I still think this is a very good team. It is not hard to think of 10-11 games that have simply been thrown away. Perhaps most teams would throw away 2-3 in those situations, that's still 8-9 wins that the Jays have simply given away.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#186936) #

Frasor sure takes a lot of time now in high-leverage situations. I myself find the Al Hrabosky routine tiresome in the absence of facial hair. When he was closing games in 2004, he wasn't anything like this, IIRC. Which came first, the managerial lack of confidence or the slow deliveries?

John Northey - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#186943) #

I think it will be good for Barajas to get a day or two off. He has started the last 13 games only twice not playing the entire game. For a catcher that has to wear you down.

However, on the flip side he has hit 304-385-587 during that stretch, and is 3 for his last 9 with 2 doubles so I guess it hasn't hurt yet. Still, not something to push too hard imo. His OPS+ of 137 is by far the best in his career, a 97 is his previous best and a career of 79 suggests he will fall to earth and probably very soon.

groove - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#186945) #

What a frustrating game! Vernon Wells go 0 for 5 and leads the team with WPA +.316.
Eckstein goes 2 for 4 and ends up with WPA -.294 which is bad but two batters were worse:
S Rolen -.368 and the WPA Killer L Overbay -.471. Those three combined lost over two whole games worth of probability.

groove - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#186946) #

Oh i forgot my favourite play of the game (and favourite managerial move /sarcasm) :
John McDonald sacrificed to third (Bunt Grounder). David Eckstein advanced to 3B. Alex Rios advanced to 2B.
J McDonald WPA -.001

John Northey - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#186947) #

Just for fun... 66 games done and where Jays are on pace for...

4 starters on pace for 32 starts each, 29 for Litsch.
The most IP for a reliever = 66 1/3 for Downs, 50+ for 5 guys
Halladay: 252 IP, 199 K's, 29 BB, 20-12 record over 32 starts - yes, he has the decision in all 13 starts plus a hold for his one relief game
Stairs: 17 HR to lead the team
Wells: 64 RBI to lead the team

Wow, knew the hitting was scary bad but sub 70 RBI and 20 HR to lead? Wow. 1995 had 25 HR & 76 RBI lead (Joe Carter), 1982 had Willie Upshaw at 21 & 75. 1981 was the ugliest at 17 & 43 by John Mayberry (just 106 games so on pace for 26 & 66), 1979 Mayberry was at 21 & 74, 78 Mayberry was 22 & 70 while in 1977 Ron Fairly hit 19 and 64.

Wow. Factoring in games played you don't get a lower RBI total EVER in Jays history, just tying it in 1977. For HR the team leader at 17 has happened only in 1981 and that was a short season. Amazing to still be on that pace this deep in.

Of course, Wells will shoot past those most likely now that he is healthy, but still. Wow.

RhyZa - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#186949) #

Oh how I long for the days of good offense and poor pitching.

At least in those days you could make sense of it all because you knew (or at least you thought you did) pitching was the hardest weakness to improve on. This just leaves a horrible taste with the situational hitting within games as a microcosm of the whole problem - not being able to take advantage after accomplishing the most difficult part.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#186950) #

The good news is situational hitting is generally a random issue at the major league level. When horrid slumps like we've seen happen they normally even out before the year is out. Drives all of us up the wall for now, but hope is there.

Right now the adjusted standings, using more than just runs for/against but also what should happen for runs given the lineup/pitching inherent strengths, show the Jays in 3rd in the entire AL, 2 1/2 behind the Rays and 4 back of the Red Sox at 37-29. IE: we have a 564 team (works out to a season record of 91-71) playing 500 ball right now. The 'bad luck' factor is 4.2 games for the Jays, the biggest in the majors, vs 1.4 for the Yankees (lots of teams between them in luck). For a team that should disappoint big time in the 2nd half look to the Angels who are 8 games above where they 'should' be.

PECOTA playoff odds now have the Jays just under 10% at 9.94%. The standard version is at 15.84%.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#186953) #

Dickey's move is a balk.

Isn't everything Dickey does a balk, once someone gets on base? He never comes set, he just kinda coasts for a while toward a stop until he starts throwing. One way to hold runners on when you're a knuckleballer, I guess. To my biased eye he looks much worse than The Beej on a pure balkage level.

Dewey - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#186955) #

One thing the Jays surely lead the majors in is runners left on base, no? Is there some stat site that would provide this information, or is a data table required? (If so, we got the man.)

Frank Markotich - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#186956) #

Anybody have any guesses as to the next time Frasor gets to pitch in a high leverage situation? I'm going to go with some 19-inning game, after Rod Barajas has already pitched a couple of innings.

Last night's game was 2008 in micrcosm, wasn't it? For sheer extended excruciation, this season is at the top of the list. Of course, for peak excruciation value, you still have to go with the last seven games of the 1987 season.

Shaker Mo - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#186959) #

The Jays have left 504 runners on base (thru June 9). That leads the AL.

More relevant is the fact that they are the worst team in the league at cashing in runners with a 35.14% rate (LOB/ R + LOB).

CHI SOX (305 runs vs 443 LOB) are the most efficient at 40.78% return, while KC and SEA have fewest LOB (428) but, as you might suspect, fewer R too (237 for KC and 256 for SEA).

Magpie - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#186960) #

One thing the Jays surely lead the majors in is runners left on base, no?

Not quite - they're actually sixth. That's not worrisome in itself - generally the teams that get the most men on base also leave the most men on base, and the Jays are also sixth on OBP.

But they're 26th in the majors in slugging, if you want to know why they don't score many runs. And they lose more base runners through CS (tied for 2nd in the majors) and double plays (1st place, whoopee!) than anyone.

Anyway, I know when my number's being called. Data table and comments to follow. The 2008 Jays offense has some alarming similarities with the 2008 Padres, which scares the crap out of me.

Shaker Mo - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#186961) #

While awaiting Magpie's comprehensive look at the situation, here's some more info...

The Jays (35.14%) are actually better at cashing in runners than both WAS (34.06%) and SD (a shocking 31.94%).

MLB average seems to be 38.2%.

scottt - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#186962) #

Seattle seems fairly light on left handed hitting.

I was surprised to see to B.J. pitch the 9th with 3 right handed batter up.
Amusingly, he faced 5 hitters intentionally walking the one left handed guy.

Frasor walked 3 guys and only got one out. I don't have to pay to see that kind of baseball. I can just walk to the park down the street.
One was intentional, but does that make it better? Intentionally walking a guy so you can walk the next guy?

1 for 9 with runners in scoring position?

I don't mean that as a rhetorical question, how long does Eckstein need to keep the batting up to move back to lead off? (.368 14/38 since coming off the DL)

In hindsight, Stairs should have started the game on the bench. Yeah, sure. He's hit Washburn before, but everybody has and having a good bat on the bench could have made a huge difference in the late innings. Pinch hitting MacDonald for a sac bunt with nobody out? In the DH spot no less, so he can't come to field if the team takes a one run lead? Gibby needs to rethink how to use his bench.

James W - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#186966) #

Changing the subject temporarily away from the hitting... Just before Cairo laid down the bunt in the 10th, Pat Tabler mentioned that the suicide was likely, commenting on how 3rd base coach Sam Perlozzo gave the signs, then went to talk to the runner on 3rd base. So my question is, if Pat Tabler can notice this and call it, why couldn't anybody on the Blue Jays bench notice it, and get a pitch out called? I've been happy with the job John Gibbons has done for the most part, but last night was inexcusable.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#186968) #

In the DH spot no less, so he can't come to field if the team takes a one run lead?

He could still come in to play defense if necessary, and I'm sure he would have done. You lose the use of a DH, and the pitcher has to bat for himself; you don't lose the use of the player who is in the designated hitter's spot. There's nothing preventing the manager from switching the player serving as his designated hitter to another position.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#186969) #

This just hit me. I'm watching the White Sox/Tigers game, and lefty Nate Robertson is pitching. In the top of the first inning, Orlando Cabrera led off with a single. A.J. Pierzynski, who's a lefty hitter and a titanic double play threat, immediately bunted him over to second. Next up are Carlos Quentin and Paul Konerko, who do unspeakable things to lefty pitchers, in public no less.

This is a classic Ozzie Move. Obviously. And in the first inning, it's Highly Questionable.

But, it got me thinking. Why don't all lefty batters learn to get really really good at dropping sac bunts against lefty pitchers? Given the proliferation of LOOGYs, and the fact that some teams have totally punchless benches, it seems might be a useful skill to have. At any rate, it would make the number of times John McDonald appears in the DH slot approach zero.

Chuck - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#186971) #

A.J. Pierzynski, who's a lefty hitter and a titanic double play threat, immediately bunted him over to second.

To me, the obvious question is why Pierzynski is batting 2nd against a LHP in the first place. He's never hit LHP his whole career. Why not someone like Swisher?

Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#186973) #

For sure. I figured that was beside the point. Clearly, Ozzie values Consistency, and the fact that he gets AJ in his favored spot when Robertson gets bounced after 5.1 innings in a 4-4 tie. I guess. And also that the show of meekness and defence to the platoon matchup in the first caused Robertson to throw Jim Thome a hanger in the second, which he homered on to put the Sox up 1-0.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#186980) #

Great decision by Gibby to send Dusty back out there for the ninth. The way he was pitching, he clearly represented the best option to retire the M's. Gibby's done a nice job of handling the starters' pitch counts this year (as opposed to last year). 10 of 14 of McGowan's starts have seen pitch counts between 100 and 105. Also bearing on the decision, no doubt, is the fact that the Jays have two off-days before his next start.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#186982) #

Great decision by Gibby to send Dusty back out there for the ninth.

And the clock time. The game went 2:02. If it went 2:50, he would have been gone after seven innings.

Most starting pitchers are good for about two hours and fifteen minutes. After that they tire, and you risk hurting them or you risk watching them get lit up. I believe it's far more significant than the number of pitches they actually throw.

scottt - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#186983) #

That was an easy decision, McGowan pitching well at home and having retired the previous 7 hitters.

I like that he brought MacDonald as soon as Eckstein had his last meaningful AB even though I don't think he touched the ball.

I suppose Toronto is the underdog tomorrow. Marcum vs King Felix.

Gwyn - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#186989) #

I suppose Toronto is the underdog tomorrow. Marcum vs King Felix.

Not according to Vegas, Toronto are -145. Which sounds about right to me, Toronto are at home, have a better offense (just) a better defence and the AL ERA leader on the mound.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#186990) #

Tomorrow?
Marcum: 2.52 ERA, 85 2/3 IP, 24 BB, 71 K, 9 HR
King Felix: 3.07 ERA, 88 IP, 36 BB, 74 K, 7 HR

Looks pretty even actually. 12 more walks in 2 1/3 IP but 2 fewer HR allowed by Felix vs Marcum plus Marcum has him by over 1/2 a run a game/33 ERA+ points.

Hernandez will probably have the better career, but at this time Marcum is pretty much even or ahead.

Dr. Zarco - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#186991) #

What a terrific outing by McGowan today. He was in control the whole time, perhaps with the exception of the 5th when he got the ball up in the zone a bit and gave up three hits. I really like Gibbons's decision to bring him back for the 9th. Magpie's right, the short game kept McGowan fresher than the 117 pitches after 8 wore him out. I like when he Gibbons plays to the situation instead of a slave to the numbers.

A loss tomorrow would mark the 4th consecutive series loss, all 2-1. Ugh, the Jays offense had better bring their A games against Felix.

brent - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 07:38 AM EDT (#187003) #

game 65- WPA heroes McGowan (6)*3, Wilkerson (4), Wells (9) WPA let downs Overbay (16), Rios (21)

scottt - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#187004) #

Apparently Wells banged his ankle hard against the bag on Monday and Rios has "minor" issues with his back and groin.

Zaun is ready, but will be starting at AAA for now.

Hill is apparently feeling fine, but will be given another week before going to rehab. Slumping will do that to you.

Stewart's ankle is at least 3 weeks.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#187006) #

I assume that the club is being cautious with Hill because of his post-concussive symptoms. He went 2-3 the day of the concussion and had been playing his usual terrific defence. The club has been missing him despite Scutaro/Inglett filling in as well as could be expected.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#187008) #

I get the impression the Jays, or at least John Gibbons, really doesn't like Thigpen much. Since Zaun went down, Thigpen has only appeared in three games, only two of which were behind the plate , neither one a start. Granted, Barajas has been on fire - 308/379/558 over that time - but you'd expect the backup catcher to get a little more work.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#187012) #

Yeah, I think Thigpen's days here are numbered, not just in the majors but in the system. In AAA he was hitting 228-271-310 while playing at CA/1B/3B/2B. With Diaz the 'catcher of the future' (286-317-411), Kratz the new AAAA guy (274-330-621 at AAA), Jeroloman in AA (252-372-387), JP Arencibia in A+ (314-344-556), Liuzza (264-354-399 low A, 255-346-389 overall) and Jaspe (341-364-512) in low A we've got lots of depth coming through.

5 more catchers were drafted this year, the highest in the 9th round (Antonio Jimenez who has signed, 3 total have signed so far). I'd say Thigpen will be a utility guy in Syracuse after this week, then will see himself removed from the 40 man by years end if a slot is required. Amazing how fast a guy can drop on the depth charts eh?

James W - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#187023) #

On the television broadcast they mentioned that Aaron Hill has been "symptom-free" for 2 days, and the team is saying he must go symptom-free for 7 days before he can go to rehab. Compare this to how the Mets handled the Ryan Church situation, and the Jays come out way ahead.

Anders - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#187025) #

Given the proliferation of LOOGYs, and the fact that some teams have totally punchless benches, it seems might be a useful skill to have.

I just have to bring this up because its so unspeakably, well, who knows. The Mets bench was, until Ryan Church got placed on the DL, and Raul Casanova got demoted:

OF Ryan Church (unavailable due to post-concussion syndromes)
C Ramon Castro Career OPS: .714
C Raul Casanova .683
2B Abraham Nunez .627
INF/OF (one of) Damion Easley .733 or Fernando Tatis (OBP below .315 four straight years)

So the Mets had four bench players, 2 of whom were catchers, in the National League. And none of them could hit either.

I mean wow.

More on the Mets woes here.

China fan - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#187029) #

Joe Inglett has two doubles so far today, plus a run scored, and is the only Jay managing any significant hits against Felix Hernandez in this game. Inglett continues to impress, in limited appearances. I really hope the Jays can find some way to keep this guy around, even after Hill comes back.

Dr. Zarco - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#187038) #

5 walks by BJ and Downs. Another game-winning hit given up by BJ with 2 strikes on a lefty. This team can't beat the lowly Mariners, absolutely pathetic. I'm finished with this team. I'm gonna find more productive things to do with my time than watch this slop for the rest of the summer. Good riddance, go Rangers.

China fan - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#187040) #

I haven't given up on this team, but it's obviously an extremely frustrating season. Just a couple weeks ago, the Jays bullpen seemed awesome -- perhaps the best in the majors. Now it's blowing leads, left and right. Aside from maybe Downs and Carlson, I don't have a huge amount of confidence in any of the relievers. In fact, the Jays might want to consider using Downs or Carlson as a temporary replacement for Ryan as closer, at least until Ryan can regroup and get his act together. The only good news is that the team has some potential reinforcements -- League and Accardo -- waiting in the wings to bolster the bullpen. Not many teams have such strong reinforcements to draw upon.

Thomas - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#187041) #

This team can't beat the lowly Mariners, absolutely pathetic.

I'm not giving up and I'm certainly not cheering for the Rangers, but I won't dispute your summary of this series.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#187042) #

I will be going to more games than ever this summer, and I expect that this team will be in serious contention on September 1 for the first time in a long time. It's not that they are great, but it looks to me that .550 ball in total (or .600 ball over the next 2 and 1/2 months) will put you there. The problems this year are fixable.

The men in the white coats will be coming any minute to take me away for my incurable optimism.:)

scottt - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#187046) #

That's what I figured. Hernandez had a slow start, but he's been untouchable of late.

Marcum's next start is facing Ben Sheets. Sorry about that, Shawn.

Well, I think we all need a day off. We're blessed that Zambrano is pitching tomorrow, so the Blue Jays won't have to face him in the next series.

greenfrog - Wednesday, June 11 2008 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#187064) #

Ryan and Gibby got tossed for complaining about the strike zone, but I think Ryan was just frustrated at his own mediocre pitching. "How can I be this bad?" He walked the leadoff hitter (Ichiro) on a pitch that wasn't close, and he nibbled his way around Sexton. The game-winning hit came on a 2-2 slider that didn't break much and was in a very hittable spot.

More fundamentally, I think Ryan is frustrated at his lack of stuff. It's as though his body won't deliver the calibre of pitches his mind intends.

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