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It was once a widely held axiom that if you could play .500 ball on the road and kick butt at home, you'd keep playing ball in October.

Despite the highly irritating way they lost some of the games on the last road trip, the Jays sport a 17-19 record on the road. Only one team has more road victories. That would be the very weird Disneyland Angels, who play mediocre ball at home, but take no prisoners when they hit the road.

But the Jays 16-13 record at home is pretty dismal. They're a better home team than Seattle and Kansas City, but whoop-dee-dam-doo. Seattle and Kansas City are bad baseball teams. They're also a better home team than Detroit and Cleveland, but when you look up "Disappointment" in any modern dictionary, you see those team logos.

Why is this? Is there something about how this team is constructed that doesn't mesh with the peculiarities of their home park? And the RC is gradually becoming one of the game's more peculiar park. Fake turf and indoor baseball have, for the most part, passed from the scene. (That's right - the Rogers Centre is a throwback!) And normally, the more unusual a ballpark is, the more that helps the guys who play half their games there.

I've always thought the Dome was somewhat unkind to LH pitchers, while giving a helpful assist to RH batters with some pop. This year's Blue Jays do carry four southpaws, but none of them actually pitches a lot of innings. It is true that the Blue Jays released a RH batter with some pop earlier this season. But it's also true that Frank Thomas never did hit very well in the Rogers Centre anyway. The only batter who is really scuffling at home this season is Matt Stairs, and that's an early season small-sample fluke. He's always hit very well at the Dome.

Should the pitching be better at home? Well, with the exception of A.J. Burnett (who has allowed 45 hits and 27 ER in 27 IP at the RC this season), it has been. Burnett has basically had no home-road split since moving to the AL, so this is almost certainly just random. And Burnett's home struggles are neatly balanced by Dustin McGowan's mirroring performance (dominant at home, scuffling on the road) anyway.

David Eckstein is not my idea of a turf shortstop, and neither is Marco Scutaro. Scutatro can handle all the positions in the infield, but the only one he's actually good at is the one he's playing right now. But the turf they play on now hardly resembles the old carpet, anyway.

The White Sox have what I tend to think of as a normal home-road split for a first place team. They've played .500 ball (17-17) on the road, and a very impressive .679 (19-9) at home. They scored 143 runs on the road, while allowing 123 - this is about what you'd expect. (You need to outscore the home team to break even) But at home, they've scored 155 runs while allowing just 107. What changes? US Cellular is a hitter's park. The White Sox allow 3.61 runs per game on the road; they allow 3.80 runs at home. But while they score 4.21 runs per game on the road, their hitters go absolutely berserk at home, and plate 5.54 runs per game.

The Jays don't have much of an offensive split. They have scored 145 runs on the road (4.02 per game), 126 runs at home (4.34 per game). They have no defensive split - they've allowed 109 runs at home (3.76 per game), and 137 on the road (3.80 per game.) You'd think something would be different...

Now if you want some weird home-road splits... consider the Red Sox. At home they score 5.81 runs per game, while scoring just 4.29 on the road. Hey, they have some great hitters and Fenway's a great place to hit, right? But on the road they allow 4.73 runs per game; they only give up 3.65 per game at Fenway. And this is why they're 26-6 at home, and just 14-20 on the road.

Atlanta is similar - the Braves give up about the same number of runs wherever they play: 3.94 at home, 4.00 on the road. But at Turner Field, they're scoring 5.38 per game, compared to just 3.71 on the road.

And the Angels - what's going on there? They don't hit very well at home. They've scored 4.13 at home and 4.30 on the road. But it's their pitchers who really like to get out of town. They've allowed 4.52 at home, and just 3.67 on the road.
9 June 2008: Home, Not So Sweet Home | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Kieran - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#186889) #
The White Sox have what I tend to think of as a normal home-road split for a first place team. They've played .500 ball (17-17) on the road, and a very impressive .679 (19-9) at home. They scored 143 runs on the road, while allowing 123 - this is about what you'd expect. (You need to outscore the home team to break even)

Can somebody explain this logic to me? Wouldn't a zero sum RF/RA generally point towards a .500 team, regardless of home/road games? Why must you outscore the home team just to break even?

Mike Green - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#186891) #
It is true that a .500 team on the road will tend to slightly outscore the opponent there.  Let's say the game is tied entering the ninth.  If the road team loads the bases with nobody out, and then a double is hit up the gap, the road team will usually end up scoring 3 or 4 runs and win 99.5% of the time.  If the home team does the same thing in the bottom of the frame, one run will score and the home team will win 100% of the time.    For this reason, home teams will outperform Pythagoras on average.
Chuck - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#186893) #
Wouldn't a zero sum RF/RA generally point towards a .500 team, regardless of home/road games? Why must you outscore the home team just to break even?

When you lose on the road, your opponent often does not bat in the 9th, so there are many games where the road team bats nine times but the home team bats only eight times.
Pistol - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#186896) #
Or if the home team goes ahead in the last inning the game's over.  The road team can run it up.
Magpie - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#186902) #
Amazing Ichiro fact, courtesy of the Seattle Game Notes tonight:

This is his 8th season, and he now has 1668 hits. Only two men in history have more hits in any 8 season streak out of their careers: Paul Waner had 1680 from 1927 through 1934 and Bill Terry had 1672 from 1928 through 1935.

Suzuki needs 13 hits in his next 99 games... I like his chances.

He's at 2946 hits, including Japan. Of course, if he'd come here at age 20 he'd almost certainly have more than that by now.
Rob - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#186907) #
Amazing Ichiro fact, courtesy of the Seattle Game Notes tonight:

The TSN broadcaster who doesn't make you want to hurt young kittens also informed us that Ichiro! is the first player since 1900 to have 200 singles in two (consecutive? can't remember) seasons.
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#186910) #
Could the Blue Jays offense be any more painful to watch? May as well be blunt: they just suck right now. The M's did everything in their power to blow this one.

Bases loaded, no one out, struggling offense. First pitch fastball to Overbay, right down the middle. Cannot.understand.why.you.take.that.pitch.




Dr. Zarco - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#186911) #
Speaking of hurting young kittens, that is what this team makes you want to do.  Every time you think you've seen the worst, most painful loss, they find a way to out do themselves.  Ho hum, just another bases loaded, none out situation where they don't score.  Pathetic, I've never seen a bigger bunch of underachievers in my life.  I'm just not sure who long I can go on supporting this team, my all-time least favorite Jays team.
Dr. Zarco - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#186912) #
Greenfrog, I said the same thing at the time, right before it happened, that Overbay had better be swinging first pitch fastball.  Not only was it a strike, but it was middle away, belt high.  Nah, pass on that and chop a down and in pitch right to first, that sounds like a better idea. 
Sherrystar - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#186914) #

After watching tonight's game, I think we all know now why Gibbons has no faith in bringing in Jason Frasor in key situations.

Not being able to score a single run with the bases loaded and nobody out against one of the worst teams in baseball is embarassing.

Can you hear that? Yes, it's another Blue Jay season full of optimism slipping away...

 

 

Dr. Zarco - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#186915) #
Speaking of Gibbons, I didn't like how he handled the pitching late.  I know it's conventional wisdom to bring your closer into a tie game in the 9th as the home team, but why bring in Ryan to face the 7-8-9 hitters, all righties?  Especially when Camp mowed down 4-5-6 on about 7 pitches.  Since the Jays can't score, bring in Ryan for the top of the order in the 10th.  I was disappointed by the lack of thinking on that move. 

Eckstein oughtta know better than to get picked off too.  He wasn't running to steal in that situation, he was running to stay out of a DP.  First thing is to make sure the pitcher goes home.  Mental mistakes sting more than physical ones. 

owen - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#186916) #
The TSN broadcaster who doesn't make you want to hurt young kittens also informed us that Ichiro! is the first player since 1900 to have 200 singles in two (consecutive? can't remember) seasons.

All I get from this is that Tabler makes you want to hurt cats and most kittens, just not the particularly young ones.
Magpie - Monday, June 09 2008 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#186919) #
I think we all know now why Gibbons has no faith in bringing in Jason Frasor in key situations.

Word.

I agree that Camp should have gone a second inning. You know Ryan's only going to pitch one, so if you don't win it then you've got to go to your fourth reliever of the night. Sooner or later, you find the one who can't throw strikes.

In the tenth, when they loaded the bases with no one out, Dale from mlb.com somewhat facetiously called out "So how can they fail to score in this situation?" Dale's seen this team play, he knows what they're capable of.  The suggestions flew thick and fast, and I almost nailed it - I went for a comebacker to the pitcher for a DP, followed a routine out.

Jeff Blair was back in the house tonight, and pleased that the manager had finally taken his advice and put Rios in the leadoff spot. To which I said "Well, if he's not going to hit for any power, you might as well." Blair added that Rios likes leading off, he's comfortable there. So now that he doesn't feel the need to be an RBI guy and hit for power, look for him to hit six or seven homers before the month is out. Which would be helpful - right now he's got basically the same OPS as David Eckstein. Didn't see that coming.

Vernon's hit streak is over - the single in the seventh was changed to an error after the game. As it should have been. Wells hit the ball so hard that he almost knocked Betancourt down, but he managed to snag it cleanly. And then his throw was so bad he pulled Richie Sexson off the bag. Which requires one a pretty wild throw.

It's been more than a month since Scott Rolen hit a home run, and he had a dreadful night at the plate tonight. Someone needs to say it. He came up in the first with a runner on and hit into an inning-ending double play. He came up in the fourth with two runners on and popped out to end the inning. He walked his third time up. In the seventh he came up with two runners in scoring position, one out, and struck out swinging. And he came up in the ninth with the winning run on second and grounded out to end the inning.




Mike D - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#186920) #
I'm just not sure who long I can go on supporting this team, my all-time least favorite Jays team.

Well said. The team does all the little things wrong, can't do any big things right, and has turned choking, in all its forms, into a science. Cheering for the '08 Jays may be many things, but "fun" is not remotely among them.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#186923) #
Eckstein oughtta know better than to get picked off too.

True that. But Dickey's move is a balk.
RhyZa - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#186927) #

I'm just not sure who long I can go on supporting this team, my all-time least favorite Jays team.

Well said. The team does all the little things wrong, can't do any big things right, and has turned choking, in all its forms, into a science. Cheering for the '08 Jays may be many things, but "fun" is not remotely among them.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Parker - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#186929) #
As much as I hate to admit it, I'm enjoying watching Jays games more now that I have zero expectations for the team to win close games (not to mention the ones that they lead by a comfortable margin only to blow that lead in the last out of the game).  I actually would have been more surprised to see them win yesterday's game than to somehow inexplicably fail to score any runs in the 9th despite loading the bases with no outs.  When I was thinking the Jays should be winning those games, watching them lose was a lot more frustrating. I know I know, I'm far too emotional as a fan.

That said, I'm also of the opinion that this team needs to be gutted and rebuilt  from the top down and I will no longer be spending any money to see Jays games while JP Ricciardi is running the show.
Squiggy - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#186930) #
I too am running out of optimism. That Mariners team is horrible in all phases, and for the Jays not to beat them is quite telling. I know it's just one game, and there are 90+ left, blahblahblah.  But at some point you have to concede that league-average RISP performance is just too much to hope for from this team, and I am getting there. The irritating part is that they will probably stay within striking distance until after the trade deadline, meaning that they cannot move potentially valuable pieces (AJ, bullpen arms etc.) to other teams, because they are still "in it". This is getting old... this year looked so good until they started playing the games.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 10 2008 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#186931) #
Well, the Jays are now tied for last with the Yankees and Orioles at 500.  Jays at 33-33, Orioles 32-32 and Yankees at 31-31.  Meanwhile in the 'what if' standings based on runs for/against the Jays are 36-30 and tied for the Wild Card with the Rays, 2 games back of the Red Sox for the overall lead in the AL East rather than 7 behind the Sox and 6 back of Tampa Bay.

The 'good' news is it could be worse.  Atlanta also is 500 but their runs for/against suggest a record of 37-27 and a 2 1/2 game lead in the wild card in the NL vs their current 5 1/2 games back of the WC.

The weird news is that right now we have 3 division leaders and 2 other teams over 500 and everyone else at or below it in the AL.  4 teams were above 500 without winning a division last year, 5 in '06.

9 June 2008: Home, Not So Sweet Home | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.