I missed the post, if there was one, for the Big Unit tying Clemens on strike outs.

Manny is probably going to reach 600 himself, so the mark isn't really the same career achievement that it was for the Big Hurt.

People talk about this a lot, but it's not really quite as big of a deal as people are making it out to be. 

Milestones like this do come in cycles.  It's not the first time that a group of players have all reached 500 at around the same time:

September 13, 1965 -- Willie Mays
May 14, 1967 -- Mickey Mantle
July 14, 1967 -- Eddie Mathews
July 14, 1968 -- Henry Aaron
May 12, 1970 -- Ernie Banks
August 10, 1971 -- Harmon Killebrew
September 13, 1971 -- Frank Robinson

7 players in 7 seasons, and 6 in the latter 5.    I wasn't alive in 1971, but I wouldn't be surprised if people then were saying the same sort of things people are now...that the number doesn't mean what it used to, that it's tainted or whatever.  But then....guess what?  Nobody did it again until McCovey in 1978, and then not again until Reggie Jackson in 1984. 

So now we're in a pretty similar situation.  Seven in the last six seasons, although admittedly even more bunched together.  But the thing is that, like in 1971, it looks like after Sheffield gets there (if he gets there?) there is probably going to be a gap.  Who is next? Carlos Delgado is the next-highest active HR hitter.  He looks to be McGriffing on us.  Chipper Jones is next on the list.  Obviously Chipper is an easy HOFer, and he's having a huge year this year.  However, he's always had durability issues, is 36 years old, and is still 102 HR's shy of 500.  Let's just say for the purpose of this post that neither Chipper nor Carlos make it to 500.  Giambi isn't going to make it either.  That brings us to Vladdy, who is 32 years old and is at 372 HR.  Vladdy's SLG has been in decline since 2004, and he is only on pace for 22 HR's this year, which would give him 387.   Even giving him 30/year from here on would take him until 2012, and there's a much better chance he doesn't get there until 2014 or so, if he gets there at all.  Who else? Andruw is in virtually the same position as Vladdy, but he is doing horrendously this year.  I mean, have you looked at his stats? Two homeruns and a 41 OPS+.  Wow.  Even if he can smarten up and finish with 20, then bounce back with 30 next year, he'd still have a long way to go. 

My prediction is that after Sheff (if Sheff,) we don't see another player hit 500 until Pujols in 2014.   After Albert?  The only other players under 30 with even 200 homeruns are:

Adam Dunn (28, 252)
Adrian Beltre (29, 229)

Ryan Howard is already 28.  Who else can get there? Miguel Cabrera?

So anyway, while it is interesting that we've had so many players get to 500 recently, this event is not unprecedented, and it doesn't mean that 500 is no longer "special."  It's still something that is very hard to do and something that will go back to being a rarity very soon.

Put another way:

Almost two years ago (July 2006), I hauled out the old crystal ball and tried to determine which active players would clear 500 homers. I eliminated everyone with less than 400 games played at that time as Too Soon To Tell.

I settled on ten guys, which is now looking like it may have been a little optimistic, especially as the air seems to be coming out of the offensive outburst of the last fifteen years. Four of that group have now cleared 500 - Rodriguez, Thomas, Thome, and Ramirez. Two of them - Sheffield and Delgado - appear to be staggering toward the finish line, and whether they'll both actually get there is now in some doubt. Two of them - Pujols and Beltran - still have a long way to go. Beltran was always my Designated Long Shot anywayThe other two were Vlad Guerrero and Andruw Jones, and I liked their chances better two years ago than I do now. Especially Andruw's - although he only needs another 130, and he's only 31 years old. He looked like a good bet for 600 homers two years ago. Now... not so much. He's gone Jimmie Foxx on us. Or Dale Murphy.

I'm not inclined at this moment to change my mind on the guys I looked at and passed over - Cabrera, Dunn, Teixeira, Chipper, and a dozen or so others.

becoming the 24th major leaguer to get to that milestone I think that's key.. i mean 24 people out of how many 10s of thousands over the 100+ years of baseball.. and that's not special? i understand the "yawn" factor though... i don't really care. I'm having problems articulating exactly why.. maybe because it's Manny, and the redsox connection. whether someone is inspired or not by the event there's no denying that it's an amazing accomplishment.

As has been mentioned, Ramirez doesn't seem likely to stop anytime soon (#501 today), so #500 isn't exactly a career defining milestone at this point. When players just made it to 500 (i.e., Banks, McCovey, Matthews, Murray), it was more of a chance to reflect and celebrate the ending of a long great career, perhaps. And when only a dozen or so had made it to that milestone, it seemed like a bigger deal (although percentage-wise, with expansion, the % with 500 probably hasn't changed much).

When 500 seemed bigger before, it might've been becaue guys like Stan Musial and Lou Gehrig didn't make it. Now guys like Sammy Sosa (with 5 great years and 292 HR) and Raphael Palmeiro (only 1 top 5 MVP finish) have made it with room to spare. For this era, 600 really is the new 500, in my opinion at least. In that vein, go Griffey!

...Now guys like Sammy Sosa (with 5 great years and 292 HR) ... [get to 500 with] room to spare. For this era, 600 really is the new 500, in my opinion at least.


...who wants to break it to him?

Ryan Howard is already 28.  Who else can get there? Miguel Cabrera?

I'd give Prince Fielder (88 at age 24) and even David Wright (108 at 25) a shot.

It's a little early for Joey Votto and Evan Longoria yet, and age appears to be ready to catch Alfonso Soriano before he'll get there but 253 at age 32 is not shabby. Can he do another 8 years of 30 HR on average?

Teammate Derrek Lee is 32 and has 251. No more likely to stay healthy and productive enough for long enough. Teixeira would look better than both if he could get back on track.

Then there's the curious case of another Cub, another Ramirez, also not mentioned here. He won't be thirty for another few weeks and has 231 HR.

But who knows? maybe one day we'll see another player hit 500 home runs after the age of 30. Who will that be? Ryan Braun? Hanley Ramirez? Dan Uggla? Josh Hamilton? Jhonny Peralta? Vernon Wells?

Hey, I know Sosa made it to 600 last year, and I realize my statements aren't entirely reconcilable...Sosa made it 600, which is impressive, but he made it at age 34. At the end of that season, he was the all time HR leader for age 34 (Rodriguez will likely pass him this year, with 2 years in hand). Unquestionably he was in the top three HR hitters of the HR era (Bonds, McGwire), so 500 didn't seem so impressive for him. Heck, 700 was widely seen as possible for Sosa.

In general, 500 will seem less important when it's not  seen as the last "big round number" a player will get to.  But as was pointed out, this generation of hitters, all making it to 500 within a decade of one another, is almost over (Sheffield and maybe Delgado). If Delgado makes it, it would seem more like a milestone, since it appears there's no way he'll make it much further (unless he gets out of Shea, his road/home splits in 2006 and 2007 are pretty ugly).  Plus the whole "greatest Blue Jay hitter ever" thing.

It sure looks to me like that whole era is over, and 500 homers is going to look pretty impressive again. We'll all have a kind of mental asterisk for some of the guys from the last decade (Mark! Sammy! Raffy!) and look at this Big Number much the way we always used to.

Chipper Jones and 500 is getting interesting.  He just turned 36 and he is 2 homers away from 400.  He is a great pure hitter, and I can see him going until he is 41 or 42 easily.  He is on a 28-30 annual homer pace over the last 2+ years.  The odds are against him because of aging, but subjectively I think that he will do it.