Does it make any sense to choose a high school pitcher in the first round?
As is well known, Bill James (among others) thinks this is a pretty dumb idea:
Perhaps the most phenomenal fact of life in baseball today is that major league teams continue to use first-round picks for high school pitchers. It has been obvious for twenty years that this is a stupid, stupid gamble ... yet every year, four to seven first-round picks are invested in these turkeys.
The problem with drafting high school pitchers is pretty obvious. It's not that it's extremely difficult to project what they're going to develop into six or seven years down the road. It is difficult, and it's difficult for high school hitters as well. But that's not the problem.
The problem is that pitchers hurt themselves. The vast majority of pitchers hurt themselves, and the years between 18 and 22 are when an awful lot of those career changing injuries happen. Drafting a high school pitcher amounts to rolling the dice on one guy's chance to pitch for six or seven years without getting hurt. And because the vast majority of pitchers do get hurt, that can't help but be a bad gamble. Whereas a college pitcher has already made it at least partially through that gauntlet. You're picking among the survivors.
That's the logic, and there have been no shortage of studies that support that thinking. See here and here, for example. And here, for you BP subscribers.
Is it still true?
The Atlanta Braves, for example, have a very strong preference for drafting high school players. The Braves' thinking has nothing to do with high school players having a higher ceiling than college players, which is a pretty dubious proposition anyway. The Braves want to take over a player's development as soon as possible. They don't want fully formed, or partially formed players - they want to be the ones who are doing the forming. Much of the Braves success over the past two decades was built on three high school pitchers - Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz. All three of whom would be in the Hall of Fame if they weren't still active. None of those three were taken in the first round, and only Glavine was actually drafted by Atlanta.
All these years later, Glavine and Smoltz are part of this year's Braves rotation, along with a man from another recent Big Three - Tim Hudson, who was drafted out of college along with Mark Mulder and Barry Zito in the late 1990s, who are also still active. Well, more or less. Mulder is on the verge of packing it in and Zito is scuffling. To say the least.
Anyway, I thought I'd check in on pitchers drafted in the first round from 2000 through 2004. It seemed to me that looking any later than that is extremely unfair to high school pitchers. How are they doing?
There were 44 high school pitchers drafted in the first round from 2000 through 2004
So far this group has a 305-310 record in the majors. And they include an everyday player, which is kind of cool!
And here are the 66 pitchers drafted out of college during the same period.
These guys have gone 474-459 as major leaguers. They also have 250 saves (the group includes two current major league closers.)
Obviously, there was once a time when we would have anointed Mark Prior as the best of this bunch. Those days are gone, and it's much too premature to make those kinds of judgements anyway. Verlander? Hamels? Weaver? Greinke? Who the hell knows. You're obviously more likely to find someone who will at least reach the majors if you take a college pitcher, because you can at least be sure that his arm won't fall off before he turns 21.
That was way too much like work, by the way. So let's take a quick peek at the Blue Jays leader boards:
Roy Halladay is by far the greatest high schooler drafted by the Blue Jays, and he's third on the all-time win list. High school pitchers hold down seven of the top ten spots, in fact. However, the top righty and the top lefty - Dave Stieb and Jimmy Key - were both college pitchers (neither was taken in the first round). Todd Stottlemyre is the other college pitcher in the Top 10 for wins (selected in the first round of the June secondary draft.)
A college pitcher has the most saves - Tom Henke. He's followed by a high schooler (Ward), another college pitcher (Koch), another high schooler (Escobar) and the college pitcher who currently has the job (Ryan). Koch was the only first rounder in that group.
Pat Gillick used nine first round picks on pitchers. As a rule, Giliick's first round picks were beneath abysmal - six of the first ten guys he took in the first round never even played a game in the majors. Two of the picks he used on pitchers were worthy - John Cerutti (college) and Chris Carpenter (high school).
And for all you Casey Janssen fans, Chris Carpenter proves that there is indeed life after a torn labrum (although now he needs to prove that there's life after a torn labrum and Tommy John surgery.)
Gillick's other first round pitchers were Matt Williams (college), Earl Sanders (college), Alex Sanchez (college), Steve Karsay (high school), Jeff Ware (college), Mark Lukasiewicz (college), and Jeremy Lee (high school). Who the hell was scouting the colleges for the Blue Jays back in those days? I guess Stieb, Key, and Timlin worked out OK.
Gord Ash, of course, drafted three pitchers in the first round - Halladay and McGowan out of high school and Billy Koch out of college.
Prior to last summer, Ricciardi had used three first round picks on pitchers, all out of college: Purcey, Jackson, and Romero. They drafted two more college pitchers in the first round last summer, although it's hard for me to take seriously the notion that the fifth guy taken by the team, with the 56th pick of the draft (Magnuson), is really a first round pick. What's up with that, anyway?
As is well known, Bill James (among others) thinks this is a pretty dumb idea:
Perhaps the most phenomenal fact of life in baseball today is that major league teams continue to use first-round picks for high school pitchers. It has been obvious for twenty years that this is a stupid, stupid gamble ... yet every year, four to seven first-round picks are invested in these turkeys.
The problem with drafting high school pitchers is pretty obvious. It's not that it's extremely difficult to project what they're going to develop into six or seven years down the road. It is difficult, and it's difficult for high school hitters as well. But that's not the problem.
The problem is that pitchers hurt themselves. The vast majority of pitchers hurt themselves, and the years between 18 and 22 are when an awful lot of those career changing injuries happen. Drafting a high school pitcher amounts to rolling the dice on one guy's chance to pitch for six or seven years without getting hurt. And because the vast majority of pitchers do get hurt, that can't help but be a bad gamble. Whereas a college pitcher has already made it at least partially through that gauntlet. You're picking among the survivors.
That's the logic, and there have been no shortage of studies that support that thinking. See here and here, for example. And here, for you BP subscribers.
Is it still true?
The Atlanta Braves, for example, have a very strong preference for drafting high school players. The Braves' thinking has nothing to do with high school players having a higher ceiling than college players, which is a pretty dubious proposition anyway. The Braves want to take over a player's development as soon as possible. They don't want fully formed, or partially formed players - they want to be the ones who are doing the forming. Much of the Braves success over the past two decades was built on three high school pitchers - Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz. All three of whom would be in the Hall of Fame if they weren't still active. None of those three were taken in the first round, and only Glavine was actually drafted by Atlanta.
All these years later, Glavine and Smoltz are part of this year's Braves rotation, along with a man from another recent Big Three - Tim Hudson, who was drafted out of college along with Mark Mulder and Barry Zito in the late 1990s, who are also still active. Well, more or less. Mulder is on the verge of packing it in and Zito is scuffling. To say the least.
Anyway, I thought I'd check in on pitchers drafted in the first round from 2000 through 2004. It seemed to me that looking any later than that is extremely unfair to high school pitchers. How are they doing?
There were 44 high school pitchers drafted in the first round from 2000 through 2004
Year Team Pitcher W L SV ERA
2001 Athletics Jeremy Bonderman 59 66 4.75 Pasco HS (WA)
2002 Mets Scott Kazmir 39 30 3.54 Cypress Falls HS (Houston)
2002 Phillies Cole Hamels 29 16 3.58 Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego,CA)
2002 Royals Zack Greinke 26 37 1 4.39 Apopka HS (FL)
2002 Giants Matt Cain 24 32 3.82 Houston HS (Germantown,TN)
2003 Dodgers Chad Billingsley 23 15 3.53 Defiance Sr HS,OH
2000 Braves Adam Wainwright 21 15 3 3.45 Glynn Academy HS (Brunswick,GA)
2000 Blue Jays Dustin McGowan 18 19 4.66 Long County HS (Ludowici,GA)
2000 Giants Boof Bonser 17 24 5.03 Gibbs HS (St. Petersburg,FL)
2001 Phillies Gavin Floyd 13 13 5.48 Mt. St. Joseph HS (Severna Park,MD)
2003 Rangers John Danks 10 17 4.68 Round Rock HS (TX)
2001 Braves Macay McBride 6 2 2 4.35 Screven County HS (Sylvania,GA)
2000 Reds Dustin Moseley 6 6 5.54 Arkansas HS (Texarkana,AR)
2004 Yankees Philip Hughes 5 7 5.51 Foothill HS (Santa Ana,CA)
2000 Pirates Sean Burnett 5 5 5.33 Wellington Community HS (FL) AAA
2004 Reds Homer Bailey 4 2 5.76 LaGrange HS (TX)
2000 Mets Bobby Keppel 0 4 6.10 Desmet Jesuit HS (St. Louis,MO) AAA
2000 Indians Derek Thompson 0 0 3.50 Land O'Lakes HS (FL) inactive
2000 Braves Kelly Johnson Westwood HS (Austin,TX) NL (2b)
2000 Royals Mike Stodolka Centennial HS (Corona,CA) AAA (OF)
2004 Rangers Eric Hurley Wolfson Senior HS (FL) AAA
2003 Indians Adam Miller Mckinney HS (TX) AAA
2001 Indians J.D. Martin Burroughs HS (Ridgecrest,CA) AAA
2002 Dodgers Greg Miller Esperanza HS (Yorba Linda,CA) AAA
2004 WhiteSox Giovany Gonzalez Monsignor Edward Pace HS (Miami,FL) AAA
2004 Twins Steven Waldrop Farragut HS (Knoxville,TN) AA
2004 Twins Jay Rainville Bishop Hendricken HS (Warwick,RI) AA
2004 Dodgers Timothy Elbert Seneca HS (MO) AA
2001 WhiteSox Kris Honel Providence Catholic HS (New Lenox,IL) AA
2001 Brewers Mike Jones Thunderbird HS (Phoenix,AZ) AA
2001 Indians Daniel Denham Deer Valley HS,CA AA
2002 Nationals Clint Everts Cypress Falls HS (Houston) A
2003 Cubs Luis Atilano Gabriela Mistral (PR) A
2003 Marlins Jeffrey Allison Veterans Memorial HS (MA) A
2003 Giants Roger Whitaker Lufkin HS (TX) A
2004 Brewers Mark Rogers Mt Ararat School (ME) inactive
2000 Angels Joe Torres Gateway HS (Kissimmee,FL) inactive
2000 Padres Mark Phillips Hanover HS (PA) inactive
2000 Rockies Matt Harrington Palmdale HS (CA) inactive
2000 Tigers Matthew Wheatland Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego,CA) inactive
2001 Royals Colt Griffin Marshall HS (TX) inactive
2002 Reds Christopher Gruler Liberty Union HS (Oakley,CA) inactive
2001 Reds Jeremy Sowers Ballard HS,KY No Sign
2001 Indians Alan Horne Marianna HS (Marianna,FL) No Sign
So far this group has a 305-310 record in the majors. And they include an everyday player, which is kind of cool!
And here are the 66 pitchers drafted out of college during the same period.
Year Team Pitcher W L SV ERA
2002 Rockies Jeff Francis 48 39 4.81 University of Lethbridge
2002 Athletics Joe Blanton 45 40 4.08 University of Kentucky
2001 Cubs Mark Prior 42 29 3.51 University of Southern California
2001 Giants Noah Lowry 40 31 4.03 Pepperdine University
2004 Tigers Justin Verlander 37 24 3.95 Old Dominion University
2004 Angels Jered Weaver 28 15 3.60 Long Beach State University
2003 Pirates Paul Maholm 23 31 4.67 Mississippi State University
2002 Angels Joe Saunders 23 10 4.15 Virginia Tech University
2003 Nationals Chad Cordero 20 14 128 2.78 Cal St San Bernardino,CA
2001 Mets Aaron Heilman 19 27 6 4.22 University of Notre Dame
2001 Giants Brad Hennessey 17 22 20 4.71 Youngstown State University
2004 Athletics Huston Street 14 8 88 2.70 University of Texas
2000 Mets Billy Traber 12 14 5.37 Loyola Marymount University
2003 Reds Ryan Wagner 11 9 4.79 University of Houston
2002 Indians Jeremy Guthrie 9 11 3.99 Stanford University
2004 Marlins Taylor Tankersley 8 3 4 3.98 University of Alabama
2001 D'Rays Dewon Brazelton 8 25 6.38 Middle Tennessee State University AAA-DL
2004 Royals J.P. Howell 8 14 5.88 University of Texas
2004 Indians Jeremy Sowers 8 10 4.83 Vanderbilt University
2001 Athletics John Rheinecker 8 9 5.65 Missouri State University
2002 Orioles Adam Loewen 8 7 5.31 Fraser Valley Christian HS
2004 Nationals Bill Bray 7 5 3 4.33 College of William and Mary
2003 Giants David Aardsma 7 2 4.71 Rice University
2000 Nationals Justin Wayne 5 8 6.13 Stanford University inactive
2003 Padres Tim Stauffer 4 7 6.37 University of Richmond
2000 Angels Chris Bootcheck 3 6 1 5.80 Auburn University
2000 Red Sox Phil Dumatrait 2 6 6.40 Bakersfield Junior College
2002 WhiteSox Royce Ring 2 3 3.68 San Diego State University
2004 Blue Jays Zach Jackson 2 2 5.36 Texas A&M University
2004 Twins Glen Perkins 2 2 3.36 University of Minnesota-Duluth
2001 Pirates John Van Benschoten 1 12 8.84 Kent State University
2000 Twins Adam Johnson 1 3 10.25 Cal State Fullerton University inactive
2004 D'Rays Jeffrey Niemann 1 1 5.79 Rice University
2001 D'backs Jason Bulger 1 0 6.08 Valdosta State University
2000 Dodgers Ben Diggins 0 4 8.63 University of Arizona inactive
2002 Pirates Bryan Bullington 0 3 5.89 Ball State University
2002 Braves Dan Meyer 0 2 7.85 James Madison University
2004 Blue Jays David Purcey 0 1 11.05 University of Oklahoma
2004 Mets Philip Humber 0 0 6.00 Rice University
2004 Yankees Jeffrey Marquez Sacramento City College AAA
2004 Cardinals Christopher Lambert Boston College AAA
2004 White Sox Tyler Lumsden Clemson University AAA
2001 Tigers Kenny Baugh Rice University AAA
2004 Dodgers Justin Orenduff Virginia Commonwealth University AAA
2002 Athletics Ben Fritz Fresno State University AA
2003 Tigers Kyle Sleeth Wake Forest University AA
2004 Orioles Wade Townsend Rice University AA
2000 Astros Robert Stiehl El Camino College AA
2004 Rangers Thomas Diamond University of New Orleans AA
2001 Cardinals Justin Pope University of Central Florida AA
2000 Orioles Beau Hale University of Texas AA
2004 Twins Matthew Fox University of Central Florida A
2004 Royals Matthew Campbell University of South Carolina-Aiken A
2003 Athletics Bradley Sullivan University of Houston A
2000 Rangers Chad Hawkins Baylor University inactive
2000 Cardinals Blake Williams Southwest Texas State University inactive
2001 Orioles Chris Smith Cumberland University inactive
2001 Yankees Jon Skaggs Rice University inactive
2001 Nationals Josh Karp UCLA inactive
2001 WhiteSox Wyatt Allen University of Tennessee inactive
2002 Cubs Luke Hagerty Ball State University inactive
2002 Astros Derick Grigsby Northeast Texas Community College inactive
2002 Cubs Matthew Clanton Orange Coast College inactive
2002 Athletics Stephen Obenchain University of Evansville inactive
2002 Reds Mark Schramek University of Texas inactive
2000 Twins Aaron Heilman University of Notre Dame No sign
These guys have gone 474-459 as major leaguers. They also have 250 saves (the group includes two current major league closers.)
Obviously, there was once a time when we would have anointed Mark Prior as the best of this bunch. Those days are gone, and it's much too premature to make those kinds of judgements anyway. Verlander? Hamels? Weaver? Greinke? Who the hell knows. You're obviously more likely to find someone who will at least reach the majors if you take a college pitcher, because you can at least be sure that his arm won't fall off before he turns 21.
That was way too much like work, by the way. So let's take a quick peek at the Blue Jays leader boards:
Roy Halladay is by far the greatest high schooler drafted by the Blue Jays, and he's third on the all-time win list. High school pitchers hold down seven of the top ten spots, in fact. However, the top righty and the top lefty - Dave Stieb and Jimmy Key - were both college pitchers (neither was taken in the first round). Todd Stottlemyre is the other college pitcher in the Top 10 for wins (selected in the first round of the June secondary draft.)
A college pitcher has the most saves - Tom Henke. He's followed by a high schooler (Ward), another college pitcher (Koch), another high schooler (Escobar) and the college pitcher who currently has the job (Ryan). Koch was the only first rounder in that group.
Pat Gillick used nine first round picks on pitchers. As a rule, Giliick's first round picks were beneath abysmal - six of the first ten guys he took in the first round never even played a game in the majors. Two of the picks he used on pitchers were worthy - John Cerutti (college) and Chris Carpenter (high school).
And for all you Casey Janssen fans, Chris Carpenter proves that there is indeed life after a torn labrum (although now he needs to prove that there's life after a torn labrum and Tommy John surgery.)
Gillick's other first round pitchers were Matt Williams (college), Earl Sanders (college), Alex Sanchez (college), Steve Karsay (high school), Jeff Ware (college), Mark Lukasiewicz (college), and Jeremy Lee (high school). Who the hell was scouting the colleges for the Blue Jays back in those days? I guess Stieb, Key, and Timlin worked out OK.
Gord Ash, of course, drafted three pitchers in the first round - Halladay and McGowan out of high school and Billy Koch out of college.
Prior to last summer, Ricciardi had used three first round picks on pitchers, all out of college: Purcey, Jackson, and Romero. They drafted two more college pitchers in the first round last summer, although it's hard for me to take seriously the notion that the fifth guy taken by the team, with the 56th pick of the draft (Magnuson), is really a first round pick. What's up with that, anyway?
