Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Flex - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#186095) #

The more I see Barajas the more I like him. He seems to have a nice rapport with the pitchers, seems to be team-oriented ("my guys in there" he says, referring to the dugout), and he's a much better plate-blocker than I was led to believe. Credit Ricciardi for getting him. With Zaun out we're in far better shape than we would have been.

groove - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#186096) #

Not really relevant, but thought it was worth mentioning that Zach Grienke of the Royals suffered a case of "Doc-itis" last night after leaving the game after the 8th with a presumably safe 8-3 lead only to have the bullpen blow it for him in the 9th. That makes it 10 losses in a row for the lowly Royals.

box score

zeppelinkm - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#186099) #

Is Doc more consciously trying to strike out guys now? Who can ask him?

Do you think he realized, "Hey, if I get them to 2 strikes, I might as well strike'em out." ? Or after "taking it easy" on his arm the last couple of seasons throwing less cutters and more sinkers, he's just feeling really good this season so he can throw any pitch anytime - no need to restrain himself.

Because for all intents and purposes, and I know his ERA + isn't quite as good this year yet as it was even two years ago, on a night in night out basis this is the best Doc has looked since the year Mench broke his leg.

Stewart seems to be coming around. I don't think he'll hit many home runs (if any), but he seems to be doing a good job of getting on base and scoring runs.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#186100) #

Another amazing game from Doc last night. Did you see how pumped he was after Rios's catch in left-centre? Huge win for the Jays.

I wonder how long the the team will stick with Stewart/Wilkerson/Mench as the LF/RF trio. I don't see how they can keep winning without more production from their corner OF's.

Magpie - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#186101) #

I wonder how long the the team will stick with Stewart/Wilkerson/Mench as the LF/RF trio.

Until Wells gets back. And in the last five games, that trio's driven in 9 of the team's 19 runs and scored 5 of them. They haven't been a complete black hole. It's probably not as urgent as getting Aaron Hill out of the top of the order, at least until he starts hitting again.

John Northey - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#186104) #

Checking Baseball-Reference I get the following...
Team OPS+ = 95, Team ERA+ = 120
To get an idea of how 'wow' that ERA+ is, last year the only starting pitching with an ERA+ that high was Doc, dead on 120.

The OPS+ is split as follows...
Above 100...
Overbay, Rolen, Wells, Stairs, Scutaro, Barajas, Luna (1 for 1)
Under 100...
Zaun, Hill, Eckstein, Stewart, Rios, Wilkerson, Inglett, Mench, McDonald, Lind, and a gang of sub 10 AB'ers.

Rios, Zaun and Inglett are in eyeshot (98/97/97) as is Scutaro (101) thus one game can easily shift them from one side to the other.

Wilkerson has been a flop at 52 (186-246-305 as a Jay) as has Mench (192-250-192 25 OPS+) but just 85 AB's between the two of them. I really don't see Mench sticking once Wells returns with Wilkerson gone soon after. Guys with a low defensive value cannot hit like John McDonald and keep ML jobs.

Pitching has AJ at 89 for ERA+ and climbing. The 4 others in the rotation are over 100 with McGowan the only one close to 100 at 104. The pen is scary with the 5 highest IP totals going to guys with ERA+'s of 111-195-232-335-765. Camp and Accardo are the slowpokes of the regulars at 92 and 62 although Camp's 92 is mixed with a BB-K ratio of 3-11 in 12 1/3 IP. Wolfe returning will first knock off Benitez (3 IP) then once Accardo returns things get interesting - Camp is the likely odd guy out but I suspect the Jays will try to keep Accardo dl'd for as long as possible.

Wow, with this pitching where would you put Janssen if he was healthy? The Jays are at the point where their closer from last year could be sent to AAA as he just isn't in the top 7 for the pen this year.

Chuck - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#186105) #

Following on zeppekinkm's line of questioning, what of all the "pitching to contact" blather we've been hearing from comentators and from Halladay himself?

Is Halladay making a more concerted effort to strike guys out? Or, is his curve just biting more and serving as more of a strikeout pitch than in the recent past?

Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#186106) #

I had this pleasant daydream while walking home from work yesterday. A month from now, the Jays were so pleased Rios' play in centerfield and Snider's batting improvement that they decided to leave Rios where he was and move Vernon Wells to left, with Snider making an early jump to the majors in right-field. The thought from the brass was to lower the fielding demands on Wells what with his arm injuries.

Amazingly, I haven't yet had a Julie Cotillard daydream...

John Northey - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#186107) #

Just thought...
Since ERA+ isn't the best for relievers howsabout this?

For the 7 guys with the most innings pitched the guys with a sub 2-1 K-BB ratio are Frasor at 15-8 and Accardo at 5-4.
HR allowed by the pen - only Jesse Carlson has allowed more than 1 and he has given up a total of 2
For the big 7 we have H/IP ratio equal to or worse than 1 for Accardo (15 in 12 1/3 IP) and that is it
2 unearned runs (1 each for Tallet and Accardo) by all non-starters, so they aren't getting an artificially reduced ERA via allowing tons of runs after an error
None of the big 7 are walking a guy every 2 innings or worse
K per inning or better for Ryan and Carlson, while Downs, Tallet, and Camp are within 2 K's of that and Frasor 3.
In AAA we have 6 guys with 20+ IP and ERA's below 3.50 (Purcey, MacDonald, League, Gosling, De Jong, and Davis)
In low A we have 5 guys with 20+ IP and ERA's below 2!

So, you think JP has been concentrating on pitching lately?

Dez - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#186108) #

Is Halladay making a more concerted effort to strike guys out? Or, is his curve just biting more and serving as more of a strikeout pitch than in the recent past?

I don't think Halladay is trying to strike out more guys - it's just that his curve is tighter this year, and he seems to be throwing a little harder than last year, so there are more Ks. It looks like he's returning to 2005 form.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#186109) #

Or you can look at the team's pitching this way. I love how THT shows Ryan's LOB% at 102.3, which is kind of a sabermetric spin on something Crash Davis might have told Nuke Laloosh about speaking to reporters.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#186111) #

"Until Wells gets back. And in the last five games, that trio's driven in 9 of the team's 19 runs and scored 5 of them. They haven't been a complete black hole."

It's true that those three have provided some key hits in the last week or so. But the above stats are based on a tiny sample size (and include a Wilkerson grand slam--admittedly a huge hit--which inflated the trio's RBI totals over that stretch. If you subtract that HR from the equation, you're looking at a total of 5 RBI and 4 runs in 5 games from three corner OF/DH-type players, which is less impressive).

The overall numbers are troubling:

Mench 192/250/192 (in 26 ABs)
Wilkerson 209/298/304 (in 115 ABs)
Stewart 259/337/315 (in 143 ABs)

jmoney - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#186113) #

Halladay has been really great this year. He's doing everything he can to help this club win. Hopefully, (knock on wood) he stays healthy all season, the Jays contend, and Roy takes him his second deserving Cy Young award.

John Northey - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#186115) #

102.3% LOB? Weird. The formula is (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR)) basically taking how many guys were put on base and subtracting runs allowed divided by baserunners less 1.4 times HR. That 1.4 is what screws up Ryan's figures as the HR he allowed was a solo shot and was the only run allowed by him. I guess the 1.4 makes sense in the long term but can create weird results in the short term.

As to FIP (fielding independent pitching - ERA where you try to factor out defense) we see only Accardo and Litsch above 4.00 but both are below 4.40. Plus, of course, the under 10 IP gang (Wells, League, Purcey, Benitez).

xFIP tries to estimate how many HR they should allow given fly ball rates. That provides 3 under 3 (Halladay, Carlson, Camp), 8 in the 3's (including Wolfe), 2 in the 4's (McGowan & Accardo) with the sub 10 IP gang above that. Litsch drops to 3.59 via this method which suggests his HR allowed are higher than they should be.

Sweet. All methods seem to say we've got a killer staff and they don't fall apart when dug into deeper.

robertdudek - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#186116) #

		Tm	PA	BaseRuns	per PA
Rolen	Scott	TOR	129	20.89	0.162
Wells	Vernon	TOR	155	22.18	0.143
Barajas	Rod	TOR	85	11.89	0.140
Overbay	Lyle	TOR	211	29.23	0.139
Stairs	Matt	TOR	154	21.00	0.136
Scutaro	Marco	TOR	165	21.18	0.128
Rios	Alex I	TOR	236	29.99	0.127
Inglett	Joe S	TOR	62	7.69	0.124
Zaun	Gregg	TOR	146	17.72	0.121
Stewart	Shannon	TOR	163	17.99	0.110
Thomas	Frank	TOR	72	7.93	0.110
Hill	Aaron W	TOR	224	24.29	0.108
Eckstein	David	TOR	138	14.77	0.107
Wilkerson	Brad	TOR	66	5.32	0.081

All Jays batters with 50+ PA, 2008 through May 28th.

robertdudek - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#186117) #

			Base Runs	IP	BR/9IP
Marcum	Shaun M	TOR	22.1	71.7	2.78
Halladay	Roy	TOR	28.1	89.0	2.84
Litsch	Jesse	TOR	27.6	58.0	4.28
McGowan	Dustin M	TOR	31.0	64.7	4.32
Burnett	A.J.	TOR	37.7	69.0	4.91

Tallet	Brian	TOR	6.8	22.3	2.74
Ryan	B.J.	TOR	5.5	17.0	2.92
Frasor	Jason	TOR	5.9	17.3	3.06
Carlson	Jesse C	TOR	7.1	20.7	3.10
Downs	Scott	TOR	8.7	21.7	3.62
Camp	Shawn A	TOR	5.1	12.3	3.76
Accardo	Jeremy	TOR	8.5	12.3	6.19

All Jays pitchers with 10+ IP, through May 28th

robertdudek - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#186119) #

First			Base Runs	IP	BR/9IP	k rate
Harden	Rich	OAK	12.8	34.7	3.32	0.289
Kazmir	Scott E	TB	7.2	30.0	2.15	0.274
Beckett	Josh	BOS	25.8	61.0	3.81	0.263
Sabathia	C.C.	CLE	39.2	68.3	5.17	0.236
Marcum	Shaun M	TOR	22.1	71.7	2.78	0.229
Buchholz	Clay	BOS	23.5	42.3	5.00	0.224
Vazquez	Javier	CHA	34.5	71.7	4.33	0.223
Lee	Cliff	CLE	14.1	66.0	1.92	0.220
Baker	Scott S	MIN	14.5	33.0	3.96	0.220
Santana	Ervin R	LAA	24.5	75.7	2.91	0.215
Bedard	Erik	SEA	24.7	53.0	4.19	0.214
Burnett	A.J.	TOR	37.7	69.0	4.91	0.212
Halladay	Roy	TOR	28.1	89.0	2.84	0.206
Matsuzaka	Daisuke	BOS	26.7	64.0	3.76	0.200
Smith	Gregory	OAK	22.1	63.3	3.14	0.191
Hernandez	Felix A	SEA	38.1	75.0	4.57	0.191
Duchscherer	Justin	OAK	11.4	41.7	2.45	0.184
Weaver	Jered D	LAA	31.6	67.0	4.25	0.181
McGowan	Dustin M	TOR	31.0	64.7	4.32	0.178
Gaudin	Chad	OAK	16.6	44.0	3.40	0.178

Strikeouts per Batters Faced, Starters with 30+ IP (top 20)

(Bottom 20)

Millwood	Kevin	TEX	33.2	48.0	6.22	0.130
Buehrle	Mark	CHA	37.8	66.7	5.10	0.129
Laffey	Aaron S	CLE	7.9	39.7	1.80	0.127
Blackburn	Nick N	MIN	34.9	71.7	4.38	0.126
Mussina	Mike	NYA	31.1	55.3	5.07	0.123
Hammel	Jason A	TB	23.9	34.3	6.27	0.123
Floyd	Gavin C	CHA	27.3	64.3	3.82	0.121
Blanton	Joe M	OAK	39.7	80.3	4.45	0.120
Feldman	Scott	TEX	22.7	43.3	4.71	0.120
Saunders	Joe	LAA	24.0	75.0	2.88	0.116
Burres	Brian	BAL	30.7	60.7	4.55	0.112
Gabbard	Kason R	TEX	23.8	41.7	5.14	0.105
Ponson	Sidney	TEX	25.3	44.7	5.09	0.100
Byrd	Paul	CLE	29.4	59.3	4.46	0.099
Trachsel	Steve	BAL	34.2	33.7	9.14	0.097
Rogers	Kenny	DET	44.6	59.7	6.72	0.097
Carmona	Fausto C	CLE	25.1	58.0	3.89	0.090
Silva	Carlos	SEA	43.4	68.3	5.72	0.088
Hernandez	Livan	MIN	48.0	76.3	5.66	0.072
Garland	Jon	LAA	36.6	71.7	4.59	0.062

ayjackson - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#186121) #

I had this pleasant daydream while walking home from work yesterday. A month from now, the Jays were so pleased Rios' play in centerfield and Snider's batting improvement that they decided to leave Rios where he was and move Vernon Wells to left, with Snider making an early jump to the majors in right-field. The thought from the brass was to lower the fielding demands on Wells what with his arm injuries.

That is a nice dream, but Wells would probably stick in right. His throwing shoulder should be fine and his break is in his catching hand. But if Snider were here by August, wouldn't Lind have had another chance to fail first?

I was thinking about Rios sticking in center after Vernon returns about the same time that he was saving the game for Doc out there in the eighth inning.

Doc certainly had a lot of bite on the curve last night but I felt that he was struggling a bit for command of his pitches. Another criticism I have is that he has totally neglected the top of the strike zone. Cust and Sweeney and some of the other A's hitters are really looking down in the zone and getting some good swings down there. Cust would have struck out on high heat the way he was geared, but Doc seems to have forgotten that, when held a certain way, the fastball has four seams.

vw_fan17 - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#186123) #

Following on zeppekinkm's line of questioning, what of all the "pitching to contact" blather we've been hearing from comentators and from Halladay himself?

Is Halladay making a more concerted effort to strike guys out? Or, is his curve just biting more and serving as more of a strikeout pitch than in the recent past?

It's elementary psychology: tell EVERYONE you're pitching to contact, and then follow through for a while. Once word gets out, switch back to K mode, and everyone's totally befuddled :-)

Chuck - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#186124) #

Cust would have struck out on high heat the way he was geared, but Doc seems to have forgotten that, when held a certain way, the fastball has four seams.

The facts might not bear this out, but I'm thinking that Cust's batting eye is such that he's far less likely to strike out chasing high heat out of the strike zone than he would be flailing at a curve in, or close, to the strike zone. He's an extremely patient hitter who rarely chases bad pitches.

ayjackson - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#186125) #

The facts might not bear this out, but I'm thinking that Cust's batting eye is such that he's far less likely to strike out chasing high heat out of the strike zone than he would be flailing at a curve in, or close, to the strike zone. He's an extremely patient hitter who rarely chases bad pitches.

I'm not saying throw it at the letters, just the belt - in the zone. Cust was so geared down in the zone that he would have been susceptible to high strikes that didn't have late sink. If you sell out to low pitches as a batter, you're going to be susceptible to high strikes (four seamers).

youngid - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#186126) #

Jack Cust eats fastballs for lunch. If you don't want to read the longest analysis of one hitter ever created, the upshot is that Cust feasts on fastballs and can't hit the curve. Obviously the situation and the previous sequence of pitches has a bearing on pitch selection, but throwing Jack Cust a curveball is usually a good idea.

Apparently I'm not smart enough to get links to work, so here's the article http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/jack-cust-eats-fastballs-for-lunch/

Magpie - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#186127) #

But the above stats are based on a tiny sample size

Of course they are! (Although baseball is about small sample sizes.) Just seemed an odd thing to say after Stewart was involved in both runs of a 2-1 win.

uglyone - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#186129) #

I was just thinking about how this is as good as I've ever seen Halladay, and all the numbers seem to back it up.

After a couple seasons of his ratios dipping down, he's got them right back to as good (or better) than they've ever been.

All at a time when he's average just a smidge under 8 innings per start - which is just a ridiculous number, even though we're only 1/3 through the year. 8 innings per start.

Every number you look at - ERA, K/9, K/BB, WHIP, OOPS, P/IP, IP/GS.....they're all at or very near career-best levels.

Seamus - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#186132) #

hey, sorry, off topic here...

does anyone know if the game is on tv any where today? I'm not seeing it on Rogers 399...

King Ryan - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#186133) #

Offense Projections. The last column is quick'n'dirty linear weights, which is similar to the BaseRuns Robert posted.

         
Player		G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	LW
										
Overbay		161	525	143	104	27	3	9	95	116	81.45
Rolen		138	503	147	85	49	4	9	62	76	79.11
Wells		143	552	155	111	20	4	20	56	68	75.55
Rios		160	637	172	121	36	6	9	63	151	75
Scutaro		141	430	114	92	12	3	6	68	58	56.05
Stairs		138	431	120	89	12	0	18	34	92	53.91
Hill		162	595	153	106	41	0	6	41	91	53.78
Zaun		123	374	99	75	18	0	6	51	45	46.29
Stewart		129	428	111	93	12	6	0	51	48	42.93
Eckstein	124	485	124	96	24	0	4	28	48	37.29
Barajas		82	233	65	44	12	0	9	12	38	26.7
Inglett		74	165	44	32	3	9	0	15	9	18.76
Wilkerson	64	221	41	30	4	0	7	19	56	13.54
Thomas		16	60	10	6	1	0	3	11	13	6.56
McDonald	66	85	15	12	4	0	0	8	19	3.28
Mench		52	123	24	24	0	0	0	9	14	2.99
Luna		6	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1.38
Coats		24	15	3	3	0	0	0	3	6	1.25
Diaz		3	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1.47
Velandia	9	21	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	-2.58
Lind		37	118	6	6	0	0	0	6	25	-8.2

Pitching:

Player		G	IP	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	R	RSAA	lwERA

Marcum		29	211	121	68	27	3	24	62	191	58	38.94	2.49
Halladay	35	262	227	162	44	6	15	32	209	85	35.4	2.93
Tallet		59	66	53	44	9	0	0	27	62	21	9.73	2.82
Carlson		71	60	38	18	12	3	6	18	65	20	7.31	3.05
Downs		65	67	53	38	9	3	3	24	59	24	6.92	3.22
Ryan		51	51	35	22	6	3	3	26	57	19	4.12	3.42
Frasor		44	47	32	18	12	0	3	24	38	18	3.64	3.45
Camp		38	36	32	24	6	0	3	9	32	14	2.72	3.47
Wells		3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	1.07	0.89
Benitez		12	9	6	0	3	0	3	6	9	6	-2.15	6.34
League		6	8	6	3	3	0	0	15	0	7	-3.04	7.59
Wolfe		24	22	24	12	9	0	3	6	15	13	-3.45	5.6
McGowan		32	191	191	138	38	6	9	80	174	94	-6.16	4.44
Litsch		27	171	174	106	38	3	27	24	100	87	-8.46	4.6
Accardo		47	36	44	27	9	6	3	12	15	25	-8.55	6.27
Purcey		6	22	21	9	6	0	6	32	9	23	-12.71	9.47
Burnett		35	203	209	138	56	3	12	91	191	110	-15.79	4.85

Total: 664 runs scored, 625 runs allowed. Pythagorean record: 85-77

The HR totals are just unbelievable to me. Rolen has hit at least 22 HR's every year he's been healthy, and he's on pace for 9. Rios hit 24 last year and 18 the year before that. On pace for 9 . Shannon Stewart was not thought of as a big homerun guy, but still, he banged out a few last year. You'd think he'd at least have one by now. It's just crazy.

Geoff - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#186134) #

Jack Cust eats fastballs for lunch.

What kind of zombie eats fastballs for lunch? Jack Cust should be munching on the corpse of Frank Thomas.

Nice article there, but why is Jack depicted as a RH batter in those pretty pitch diagrams? Unless we're looking at it from the catcher/umpire's angle, in which case that is quite the batting stance. I'm imagining Tony Batista from the left side. Torso facing the pitcher, shoulders and feet almost squared to the plate, bringing parts in line as the pitch is delivered.

And I will not tire of explaining making links: you have the address copied and ready to paste, you type "here's the article". Double click the word article, click the link icon, windows pops up, click the empty field box below URL, paste address, click OK, you're done. If you can paste an address here, you should be able to paste into the ol' link-maker machine. The big trick is you must have at least one word selected in your comment before clicking the link icon.

Geoff - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#186135) #

Before this season, nobody had thought to use Scutaro at first base; as of today he's started their twice.

I wonder what Vernon would say to platoon time at 1B, should roster construction make him the most viable platoon partner for Overbay?

Or Gibbons could wait for Overbay to start hitting lefties like something other than a schoolgirl. (with apologies to schoolgirls who do hit lefties)

John Northey - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#186136) #

No idea about TV, but you can see all scoring plays and a few defensive ones on Gameday at the Jays site.

I just love how MLB has done this with the web. Makes watching the game at work a lot more fun :)

Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#186137) #

The HR rate is way down in the AL this year. Through the end of May last year, the league was hitting .264/.334/.417; this year it's .259/.329/.396, with 92 fewer homers being the main culprit. That number will go down over the next 3 days, of course.

The bizarre part is that if one is looking at migration of inter-league talent in the off-season, I'm seeing more hitting coming from the NL to the AL, with Miguel Cabrera being ex. 1.

brent - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#186138) #

game 54- WPA heroes Halladay (6)*, Rios (9), Ryan (11), Stewart (5) WPA let downs Hill (17), Rolen (6), Overbay (14)

King Ryan - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#186139) #

I just love how MLB has done this with the web. Makes watching the game at work a lot more fun :)

You know what's even cooler? If you pay for MLB.tv, like I do, then you can watch the actual broadcast of the game, live, on your computer!!

Oh no wait, the Jays are blacked out across Canada regardless of if the game's on TV or not. My bad.

(Yes, I will be ranting about this every time the Jays aren't on TV)

Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#186140) #

Anyone got any ideas why Geren came back with another lefty, Braden, against a heavily platoon lineup? Braden needed the work, I suppose, and perhaps Devine wasn't available.

scottt - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#186142) #

Before this season, nobody had thought to use Scutaro at first base; as of today he's started their twice.

Before the game I was thinking that it was time to start platooning Overbay.

I would have gone with Thigpen, but Scutaro is probably a better bat and makes it easier to bring Overbay back once the starting pitcher leaves.

I hope Rolen and Hill are both fine.

scottt - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#186143) #

Anyone got any ideas why Geren came back with another lefty, Braden, against a heavily platoon lineup? Braden needed the work, I suppose, and perhaps Devine wasn't available.

And now DiNardo?

He might have been thinking about the next game. It was already 6-0 when Braden came out.

AWeb - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#186144) #

May 29th, Jesse Litsch : 7-1, 65 IP, 3.18 ERA, 9BB:37K. I love when something so completely unexpected and good happens to my favourite team. Did anyone think he would this good? I figured he might be getting underrated by some since he was/is so young and had performed well in 2007, but this has been quite something.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#186145) #

Did anyone think he would this good?

Not me, although I am not really shocked. So far, he has just made the incremental improvements that you would like to see from a young pitcher, and has been fortunate with run support, especially in light of the decline in offence in the AL this year. He hasn't yet been supported by less than 3 runs, and has games with 10 and 12 runs.

Chuck - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#186146) #

Before the game I was thinking that it was time to start platooning Overbay.

I'm not sure I'd read this as a sign that Overbay is about to be platooned (whether there is an argument for such or not). I think a few factors converged today.

* returning Eckstein to shortstop
* keeping a hot Scutaro in the lineup
* a day off for Overbay against a LHP

scottt - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#186147) #

He hasn't yet been supported by less than 3 runs, and has games with 10 and 12 runs.

In the 10 run game he was lifted after 5 innings with a 4-2 lead.

The 12 run game was of course a shutout.

The run support looks pretty irrelevant to me.

The Jays have scored 6 or more runs in 4 or Halladay's 6 wins and in 4 of Marcum's 5 wins. McGowan has had no run support though. Same as last year.

Litsch has only given more than 3 runs twice and he's gone 38 innings without a walk.

scottt - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#186148) #

Not really relevant, but thought it was worth mentioning that Zach Grienke of the Royals suffered a case of "Doc-itis" last night after leaving the game after the 8th with a presumably safe 8-3 lead only to have the bullpen blow it for him in the 9th. That makes it 10 losses in a row for the lowly Royals.

Guillen went ballistic after the game. Leadership or clubhouse cancer?

Lefty - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#186149) #

Just a cracker of a game today.

I wonder if somebody has been telling Scutaro, Wilkerson, Mench, Barajas, True Grit and Stew how much disrespect they get on da box.

It would be nice to see one or two of these guys taking turns going on mini hot streaks.

uglyone - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#186150) #

I think we can officially say that Barajas is our first and only, honest-to-goodness, HOT, overachieving offensive player of the season.

Dave Till - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#186151) #

The Jays play better when I don't watch them. I didn't even realize this was an afternoon game: when I got home, I discovered that they'd already won 12-0. Which kind of messes up the Pythagorean projection all by itself.

Saw Thomas on his attempt to stretch a double into a double the other night. He's slower than continental drift. And he got injured running the bases. Sure, he'll hit better than the Jays' biggest, scariest bats, but I'm thinking that the Jays won't miss him.

Is Burnett now the Jays' fifth-best starter? Right now, Halladay, Marcum and Litsch rank 1-2-3.

Rod Barajas at .301! You gotta believe.

I'm happy that baseball is still meaningful in these parts. And that the Yankees are still in last place.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#186153) #

I think I might have sparked Stewart, Mench and Wilkerson by calling them out on Da Box. :)

VBF - Thursday, May 29 2008 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#186154) #

I'm happy that baseball is still meaningful in these parts.

Sure it's early, but the Jays are 2 games out of a Wild Card spot. I don't think that they've held a playoff position spot ever in the end of May/June for several years (1999?). I recall that late May run of 2003, but I think they just got close then. 2006 was always close as well.

King Ryan - Friday, May 30 2008 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#186156) #

Me, earlier today: " Shannon Stewart was not thought of as a big homerun guy, but still, he banged out a few last year. You'd think he'd at least have one by now. "

Thanks, Shannon. That's better!

vw_fan17 - Friday, May 30 2008 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#186157) #

Ok, so.. If I did the math right, the Jays are now 29-26 and 14-1 in day games. Which means they are 15-25 in night games. A quick count says they have approx 33 day games left. So, if they go 30-3 in those games, and 28-46 in their remaining night games, they'll end up with a record of 87-75.

IIRC, most/all playoff games are at night, so even if the Jays magically made the playoffs with 87-90 wins, they're still sunk..

Come on JP - gotta get some night-time performers. Forget the daytime overachiever stiffs.. :-)

PeteMoss - Friday, May 30 2008 @ 01:21 AM EDT (#186158) #

So this year instead of complaining about how the Jays might have made the playoffs if they were in the AL Central, we should be wishing the Jays were in the NL Central where they'd get some extra day games against the Cubs.

Magpie - Friday, May 30 2008 @ 01:43 AM EDT (#186159) #

I think I might have sparked Stewart, Mench and Wilkerson by calling them out on Da Box. :)

Hey, I'll buy that! Keep up the good work.

zeppelinkm - Friday, May 30 2008 @ 06:36 AM EDT (#186164) #

It was a group effort.

2nd post of thread, last line:

"Stewart seems to be coming around. I don't think he'll hit many home runs (if any), but he seems to be doing a good job of getting on base and scoring runs."

It's the old reverse pyschology trick!

King Ryan - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 02:39 AM EDT (#186217) #

Wow, what a difference two games can make!

Player		G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	LW	OBP	SLG			

Overbay		158	520	147	104	26	3	14	92	118	87.25	0.390	0.425			
Rolen		138	506	155	88	50	8	8	59	79	83.97	0.378	0.488	
Wells		141	544	153	110	20	4	20	55	67	74.5	0.346	0.439			
Rios		160	634	172	122	35	6	9	61	148	73.19	0.335	0.385	
Scutaro		142	444	121	98	15	3	6	65	59	58.21	0.366	0.360
Hill		159	583	153	108	40	0	6	45	88	56.8	0.317	0.361
Stairs		136	427	118	89	12	0	18	36	92	53.56	0.333	0.431
Stewart		130	441	118	98	12	6	3	52	46	48.64	0.345	0.340
Zaun		122	372	98	74	18	0	6	51	45	46.04	0.352	0.360
Eckstein	125	485	125	95	27	0	4	38	45	42.78	0.312	0.336		
Barajas		85	247	74	45	20	0	9	17	40	34.92	0.344	0.483
Inglett		77	165	43	31	3	9	0	14	11	17.39	0.317	0.379
Wilkerson	67	239	53	42	4	0	7	18	56	17.15	0.274	0.324					
Mench		53	136	35	31	4	0	0	9	13	9.21	0.303	0.290			

																		
Player		G	IP	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	R	RSAA	cERA			
Marcum		28	203	117	65	26	3	23	60	185	56	37.57	2.49		
Halladay	34	253	219	156	43	6	14	31	202	82	34.16	2.93
Tallet		60	65	51	43	9	0	0	26	63	19	10.8	2.66	
Carlson		71	61	37	17	11	3	6	23	63	21	7.14	3.09		
Downs		63	65	51	37	9	3	3	23	57	23	6.68	3.22		
Camp		43	41	34	26	6	0	3	9	40	13	5.32	2.97		
Ryan		49	49	34	22	6	3	3	25	55	19	3.97	3.42		
Frasor		45	46	31	17	11	0	3	26	40	18	3.2	3.53
Wells		3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	1.03	0.89					
Benitez		14	9	6	0	3	0	3	6	17	6	-1.98	6.24		
League		6	8	6	3	3	0	0	14	0	6	-2.93	7.59		
Wolfe		23	21	23	11	9	0	3	6	14	13	-3.33	5.6		
McGowan		34	201	205	151	40	6	9	80	185	98	-5.12	4.38		
Litsch		31	185	185	114	40	6	26	26	105	91	-5.9	4.44		
Accardo		45	35	43	26	9	6	3	11	14	24	-8.25	6.27		
Purcey		6	21	20	9	6	0	6	31	9	22	-12.26	9.47		
Burnett		34	196	202	134	54	3	11	88	185	106	-15.23	4.85

Total: 705 runs scored, 618 runs allowed. Pythagorean record: 90-72 !

King Ryan - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 02:41 AM EDT (#186218) #

Marcum being on pace to allow 65 singles in 206 IP is, um, insane.

groove - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#186226) #

Marcum has the best BIPA (BAA in balls in play ) in the American league right now, at .180, which indicates he is being extremely lucky. Compare this to Doc who has a middle of the road .269. You know that he can't keep it going at this rate. If you sort the blue jays starters by DIPS you get the following order:
Halladay 2.77
Burnett 3.46
McGown 3.58
Marcum 3.85
Litsch 4.27

Litsch ranks #27 in the AL. That is freakin' good and this is actually the consensus #1-#5 ordering that was pegged at the beginning of the year. I'm actually surprised that Burnett is so high, but his K rate has been good and he has been hit unlucky so far. Cliff Lee is #1 at 2.63 which is insane but deserved.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?sort=DIPSERA&split=0&league=al&season=2008&seasonType=2&type=pitch5&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&hand=a&pos=all&minip=60

Mike Green - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#186238) #

Marcum has the best BIPA (BAA in balls in play ) in the American league right now, at .180, which indicates he is being extremely lucky.

Lucky, yes. Extremely so, no. Here's his THT profile. His line-drive rate is at a very low 15.6%. His K rate is up, which reflects his fine stuff. And his ground-ball rate is up; he's got a fine infield defence behind him and he's a terrific fielder himself.

Marcum's opposition BABIP will go up, but on the other side of things, he has induced precisely 0 double plays this year despite the above average ground ball rate. That will go up too.

uglyone - Saturday, May 31 2008 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#186252) #

I agree Marcum's been lucky......but watching him pitch, I can count the hard hit balls hit off him on one hand, every single game.

Don't think he's been THAT lucky.