Mmmmmm.... steak.

If nothing else, the team's ability to streak (in both directions, unfortunately) is a welcome relief from the pattern of the past few years, when the Jays couldn't seem to stomp the teams that were decidedly worse than them, but hung tough against the cream of the crop.

Players and management both talked about the need to develop the 'killer instinct' to sweep series' and build momentum. I think we've seen that more in this edition of the squad than at any time in the previous five years.

And that, at least, is somewhat heartening.

Interesting checking B-R's preview...

Relievers who have had 8 days off at least - Camp & Benitez.  In other words, the Jays have been using a 5 man bullpen for the past week and a bit.
Tallet has been used once in the past 8 days, with 5 games off since his last appearance.
Ryan & Frasor have been used twice in the past 8 days
Carlson & Downs have been used three times in the last 8 days.

Now THAT is a rested pen.  With AJ going tonight I suspect we'll see 3 innings for the pen, then a day off as Halladay pitches, then Litsch, then McGowan & Marcum & AJ vs the Angels.  Thus the Yankees will see Halladay/Litsch/McGowan.

Oakland is scoring 4.5 runs per game and giving up 3.6 vs the Jays 3.9 and 3.7.  A very quick set of games in Oakland with low, low scores I'd expect as the best two staffs in the majors face off.

Both Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell turn 40 today. It's also the birthday of Jacob Brumfield (#1), but the May 27 team will have to unload one of Thomas or Bagwell for some serious pitching and a shortstop before it can even think of being competitive.

The Blue Jays coming out to Oakland and turning 40 might provide some motivation for the Big Hurt tonight, if one believes in such things.

Well the Royals are a bad bad team. Although I agree with the sentiment that previous versions of the Jays would have split with the Royals rather then cream them four straight. Its good to see. If the bats can stay average they have a chance at a .500+ road trip which would be good in my books.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Thomas go 0-fer the series with a bunch of strike outs. The Jays pitchers have seen, more than any other pitchers in the league, the man's weaknesses (of which there are many).

Into the Valley of Death ride the Jays.

For the next nine days we face the three-headed dragon; an Athletic, Angelic yet strangly demonic Yankee beast that lurks amid sulphurous fumes, sharpens its weapons of death and waits patiently to devour our pretty little blue birds of paradise. We will not go quietly into that dark night - starting tonight they will learn that beneath that cool, calm, quiet Canadian exterior lurks a killer bird of prey with beastly claws and steely nerve.

At least, I most sincerely hope so.

The Blue Jays coming out to Oakland and turning 40 might provide some motivation for the Big Hurt tonight, if one believes in such things.

Everyone knows baseball players behave like robots in a vacuum of statistical probability. The Big Hurt will only do what the numbers will suggest he will do.

Mr. Green, I take your challenge to heart! We've previously met Hall of Names squads made of birthday boys from May 24 and May 25 and May 26 ... but never for May 27, the rare day when two Hall of Famers were born the same year. (Any arguments that these two are both HOFers??)

And just on quick glance at BBRef's May 27 birthdays page, we can indeed build a full lineup, as per below:

ALL-MAY 27
MGR Terry Collins
C Todd Hundley
1B Jeff Bagwell
2B Jerry Kindall
SS Jimmy Hallinan or Mike Caruso
3B Pinky Higgins
LF Jacob Brumfield
CF Terry Moore
RF Jim Vatcher
DH Frank Thomas

RHSP Ed Crane (also OF and 1B)
RHSP Gary Nolan
RHRP Mark Clear
RHRP Edwin Nunez

I didn't grab any details or go for the full 25-man roster thing, but think that would be eminently do-able. You're right about the dearth of shortstops, though -- you have one really old-time and one very recent #6 -- both decent, neither great -- and then it drops off to Frank Snyder, mostly a catcher  for 16 years, who played one game at short. There is also a lack of lefties in the abbreviated list of pitchers, though again, I admit I only glanced at the list.

 

Any arguments that these two are both HOFers??

If enough writers give credence to the unnamed source in this recent Daily News story, Bagwell may not be.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2008/05/24/2008-05-24_sources_kelly_blair_made_boasts_about_ju.html

With AJ going tonight I suspect we'll see 3 innings for the pen, then a day off as Halladay pitches.....

You know things are going well when people expect a complete game from the Doc.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Thomas go 0-fer the series with a bunch of strike outs. The Jays pitchers have seen, more than any other pitchers in the league, the man's weaknesses (of which there are many).

I would be surprised. Thomas has a .921 OPS for Oakland. Not only that his line for Oakland against clubs he had faced earlier in the season with Toronto is 11-30 with 4 walks. He might struggle against Toronto pitching, but that's more likely to be a product of the fact Toronto has a good pitching staff than does with any degree of familiarity, in my opinion. Plus, not only was there no reason for Toronto pitchers to have been paying particularly close attention to Thomas' at-bats (in terms of things that aren't known in general scouting reports or might not be easy to pick up in video analysis), but Thomas could just as easily have been paying attention to the trends of Blue Jays pitchers.

The Big Hurt will only do what the numbers will suggest he will do.


That's one confusing line. Do you mean the current numbers or the numbers *after* the game?

The current numbers don't suggest much: Never faced Litsch, 1 for 4 against Burnett, .3 singles, a double and 2 walks in 14 AB against Halladay. It's all very average.

I think Frank will be more energized when the A's come back to Toronto where the fans are more likely to cheer than boo. Kinda like Barajas at Philly. I can't get over how much the Philly fans hate him. It's supposed to stem from a late inning play in which he didn't block the plate.

Everyone knows baseball players behave like robots in a vacuum of statistical probability. The Big Hurt will only do what the numbers will suggest he will do.

Frank Thomas a robot?  Pshaw.  I do however know of no conclusive proof that Jack Cust is not a zombie, and the clues are obvious- the preponderance of three true outcomes in his batting, the initials, the fielding inadequacy.

From a few days ago by Scottt...

Apparently not. It's because of the leverage index. If the visiting team scores 8 runs in the first inning, the game is already won and the visiting pitcher won't get much WPA no matter what he does.

Ok, I was wrong. McGowan got more because the game was closer. It's still not a very good measure of a pitcher's performance. Still, how does B.J. Ryan get 0.172 for closing a 4-3  game on May 22, while Rodriguez got .215 for doing the same the day before? Is closing a game at home somehow more valuable than closing one on the road?

You already answered your own question. It is because of LI. Check the Play Log function to see what the impact of walking a batter by Rodriquez was. BJ Ryan had a 1-2-3 inning.

http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2008-05-21&team=Blue%20Jays&dh=0

http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2008-05-22&team=Blue%20Jays&dh=0&season=2008

Whenever you see something that looks strange, just go straight to the play log and check out what happened.

Here is the "on pace fors" for our offense, sorted by quick 'n' dirty linear weights.

Player		G	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO
									
Overbay		161	522	146	106	27	3	9	97	115
Rolen		138	501	152	87	51	5	9	64	74
Rios		160	643	172	123	34	6	9	65	154
Wells		138	533	150	107	19	4	19	54	65
Hill		162	597	156	108	42	0	6	42	87
Scutaro		141	429	113	94	9	3	6	69	60
Stairs		138	430	119	88	13	0	19	31	94
Zaun		123	375	99	75	18	0	6	51	45
Stewart		128	427	110	91	12	6	0	49	49
Eckstein	127	496	127	98	25	0	4	29	49
Barajas		81	228	63	42	12	0	9	12	39
Inglett		75	168	45	33	3	9	0	15	9
Wilkerson	62	217	39	27	4	0	8	19	58
Thomas		16	60	10	6	1	0	3	11	13
McDonald	67	87	16	12	4	0	0	8	20
Mench		53	125	24	24	0	0	0	10	14
Luna		6	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	0
Coats		24	15	3	3	0	0	0	3	6
Diaz		3	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
Velandia	9	21	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Lind		38	120	6	6	0	0	0	6	25

game 53- WPA heroes Eckstein (8), Rolen (6)     WPA let downs Barajas (11), Overbay (13), Stewart (10), Hill (16), Burnett (7)

You already answered your own question. It is because of LI. Check the Play Log function to see what the impact of walking a batter by Rodriquez was. BJ Ryan had a 1-2-3 inning.

OK. I'm just trying to understand this, so please bear with me.

Then my previous observation was right. A pitcher gets more points for creating high leverage situations--which is not indicative of good pitching. If you want to evaluate a pitcher, it would be better to weight only the situations he didn't create himself--when a pitcher comes  in with runners on base, or when his team is credited with a run. That's exactly what is being done for the hitters since nobody bats twice in a row.

WPA aside. That should have been another QS for Burnett. 2 earned runs in 5.2 innings is fine. 10K, 2BB

I guess that's it for Thomas in this series.

I do however know of no conclusive proof that Jack Cust is not a zombie

Perhaps then Billy Beane is some sort of sorcerer, capable of bringing Jack Cust back from the dead as well as reaminating the corpse of Frank Thomas whenever he sees fit.

Then my previous observation was right. A pitcher gets more points for creating high leverage situations--which is not indicative of good pitching. If you want to evaluate a pitcher, it would be better to weight only the situations he didn't create himself--when a pitcher comes  in with runners on base, or when his team is credited with a run. That's exactly what is being done for the hitters since nobody bats twice in a row.

Not quite.  If a pitcher creates the high leverage situation himself, he won't see a benefit to his own WPA.  Causing the situation to get worse will lower his WPA.

It's like saying that a person needs to walk 200 feet forward.  If he runs 500 feet backward before going 700 feet forward, the net result is still 200 feet foward.