It's not a particularly deep year for college pitchers.
At the top of the list are Aaron Crow and Brian Matusz. Both figure to go in the top 10. After that the next tier is Scheppers, Friedrich and Hunt. It's possible that someone(s) in that group is available when the Jays pick at #17. The remaining pitchers are likely late first/sandwich round picks, unless someone takes reliever Josh Fields in the teens.
Here's what they look like:
Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri:
Missing bats is always good and Crow has done that a lot more often this year, albeit at the expense of some control.
Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego:
Statistically I like Matusz better than Crow, and that he's a lefty is a bonus. He's increased his Ks each year while lower his BBs at the same time. You can see the results in his ERA.
Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno St:
Lots of Ks here. The big surge has come at the expense of some control, but if you can get that under control you're onto something. The big problem now is that Sheppers has a shoulder injury. Initially it was doubtful that he make it to the Jays at #17, but now it looks like he could drop a lot, particularly with an odd (shoulder fracture) injury.
Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky:
Good numbers, although the walks are a little high. Competition at E Kentucky isn't the best so take those numbers with a grain of salt.
Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane:
Like Scheppers, Hunt has increased his Ks, but at the expense of some control. The hits per 9 innings is ridiculously low.
Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia:
Here's your college closer that'll go in round 1 this year. Fields was in the draft last year, but didn't sign. Back for his senior year he's been almost impossible to score on, but the BBs are a concern.
Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU:
The next closer on the list and pretty similar to Fields - high Ks, high BBs. He was a junior college transfer so there's only one year to look at.
Lance Lynn, RHP, Mississippi:
Looks pretty solid across the board, although a few more HRs than you'd like.
Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona:
A nice improvement with his control this year, and his hits allowed are down. Makes you think he made some sort of adjustment to improve like that.
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As mentioned above, the players the Jays could be in line for in Round 1 (#17) are Scheppers (although an injury concern now), Friedrich and Hunt. If Friedrich and Hunt are off the board it's pretty likely that the Jays would go with a bat (and might even if they are around).
At the top of the list are Aaron Crow and Brian Matusz. Both figure to go in the top 10. After that the next tier is Scheppers, Friedrich and Hunt. It's possible that someone(s) in that group is available when the Jays pick at #17. The remaining pitchers are likely late first/sandwich round picks, unless someone takes reliever Josh Fields in the teens.
Here's what they look like:
Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri:
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 77.2 | 4.06 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 11.0 |
| 2007 | 117.2 | 3.59 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 8.4 | |
| 2008 | 83 | 2.82 | 11.2 | 3.1 | 7.8 |
Missing bats is always good and Crow has done that a lot more often this year, albeit at the expense of some control.
Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego:
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 89 | 4.25 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 8.5 |
| 2007 | 123 | 2.85 | 11.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 7.2 |
| 2008 | 88 | 2.05 | 12.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 7.7 |
Statistically I like Matusz better than Crow, and that he's a lefty is a bonus. He's increased his Ks each year while lower his BBs at the same time. You can see the results in his ERA.
Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno St:
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 15 | 9.00 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 10.2 |
| 2007 | 93 | 4.74 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 10.3 |
| 2008 | 70.2 | 2.93 | 14.0 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 6.9 |
Lots of Ks here. The big surge has come at the expense of some control, but if you can get that under control you're onto something. The big problem now is that Sheppers has a shoulder injury. Initially it was doubtful that he make it to the Jays at #17, but now it looks like he could drop a lot, particularly with an odd (shoulder fracture) injury.
Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky:
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2007 | 81.2 | 2.09 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 4.9 |
Good numbers, although the walks are a little high. Competition at E Kentucky isn't the best so take those numbers with a grain of salt.
Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane:
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 34.1 | 4.72 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 9.2 |
| 2007 | 99.2 | 2.62 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 7.7 |
| 2008 | 77.2 | 1.97 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 4.4 |
Like Scheppers, Hunt has increased his Ks, but at the expense of some control. The hits per 9 innings is ridiculously low.
Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia:
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2005 | 27 | 7.00 | 16.3 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 8.7 |
| 2006 | 50 | 1.80 | 10.1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 |
| 2007 | 38.1 | 4.46 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 8.0 |
| 2008 | 27.1 | 0.66 | 16.3 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 2.3 |
Here's your college closer that'll go in round 1 this year. Fields was in the draft last year, but didn't sign. Back for his senior year he's been almost impossible to score on, but the BBs are a concern.
Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU:
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2008 | 43.1 | 2.08 | 13.6 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 2.9 |
The next closer on the list and pretty similar to Fields - high Ks, high BBs. He was a junior college transfer so there's only one year to look at.
Lance Lynn, RHP, Mississippi:
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 85.1 | 4.96 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 9.2 |
| 2007 | 123.1 | 2.85 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 6.9 |
| 2008 | 73.1 | 3.68 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 8.5 |
Looks pretty solid across the board, although a few more HRs than you'd like.
Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona:
| Year | Innings | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | H/9 |
| 2006 | 34.1 | 7.34 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 14.5 |
| 2007 | 34 | 6.35 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 12.4 |
| 2008 | 60.2 | 3.56 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7.8 |
A nice improvement with his control this year, and his hits allowed are down. Makes you think he made some sort of adjustment to improve like that.
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As mentioned above, the players the Jays could be in line for in Round 1 (#17) are Scheppers (although an injury concern now), Friedrich and Hunt. If Friedrich and Hunt are off the board it's pretty likely that the Jays would go with a bat (and might even if they are around).
