Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

HollywoodHartman - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#185301) #

Is this game on TV at all?

Flex - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#185307) #

According to the sked it's just on MLB.TV

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#185312) #

Amazing how even after the quarter-way point, one or two starts can still cause dramatic swings in statistics.

Going by ERA+, a week or so ago, we were talking about how unreal the front of our rotation had been performing. Some people had even claimed this as the best pitching staff in franchise history.

Now, our starters (in order of ERA+) are:

182 (Marcum)
116 (Halladay)
98 (Listch)
91 (McGowan)
82 (Burnett)

The rotation now looks more run-of-the-mill than anything special.

Pistol - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#185314) #

The Brewers locked up Ryan Braun for 8 years a day after the Rays signed Kazmir to an extension.

More and more bottom 20 payroll teams are locking up players earlier and earlier. It'd be nice to see Marcum and McGowan signed up with a Shields like contract.

owen - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#185315) #

Would we be blacked out of this game on MLB TV even though there is no local coverage? If not, this would be the day that I decide to sign up ...

jeff mcl - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#185317) #

Save yourself a phone call: mlb.tv always blacks out all Jays games across Canada regardless of the circumstances. They might change that policy in a few years time, which is of no help this afternoon.

I see the game also isn't on my Rogers MLB extra innings package and likely won't be on the radio here in London so as not to pre-empt local blowhard Charles Adler and his milkshake call-in show.

Maybe I'll get some still black and white photos on the evening news...

Mike Green - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#185318) #

The Brewers locked up Ryan Braun for 8 years a day after the Rays signed Kazmir to an extension.

More and more bottom 20 payroll teams are locking up players earlier and earlier. It'd be nice to see Marcum and McGowan signed up with a Shields like contract.

Agreed.

HippyGilmore - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#185322) #

Apropos of nothing, Roy Halladay now has a lower xFIP (2.75-2.78) than Cliff Lee, and has the lowest number in major league baseball while pitching the most innings. His FIP is 8th-lowest in the majors. So expect that ERA to climb downwards, offset by Marcum's inevitable rise.

John Northey - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#185324) #

Watching the game on Gameday and geez was that an ugly 3rd by McGowan.

McGowan has tossed 3 innings, 70 pitches, 0 hits and 1 run thanks to 4 walks and 1 wild pitch. He easily could be pulled from a no-hitter with under 5 IP at this pace. Wonder how gray Gibbons hair went that inning?

China fan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#185325) #

The Jays are allowing an average of 3.8 runs per game this season -- the third-lowest average in the league. Even if some of the credit goes to the bullpen, it's hard to imagine how a team could have a "run-of-the-mill" rotation when it has the third-best pitching performance in the entire league. Is it really fair to call it a "run-of-the-mill" rotation?

Chuck - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#185326) #

McGowan has tossed 3 innings, 70 pitches, 0 hits and 1 run thanks to 4 walks and 1 wild pitch.

Most walks in a no-hitter. Check out #2.

John Northey - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#185327) #

Why isn't that a shock to me? :)

McGowan ended up going 5 IP with 2 hits, 2 runs, 5 walks, 3 K's and a no-decision. The end result is decent (2 runs in 5 innings), but geez was that an ugly way to get there.

So, who's with me on voting McGowan as Guzman the 2nd? Tons of talent, could easily be a #1 and will probably have a season or two where he looks it but never really becomes what he should have. AJ obviously lands here too.

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#185328) #

CF,

I think it's pretty hard to say that Toronto's rotation has performed as well as the Indians, White Sox, A's, or Red Sox rotation has done so far. With those 4 ahead of the Jays, that puts the home team 5th at best, which is middle-of-the-pack.

Here are the ERA+ of the other rotations in the AL (grouped arbitrarily by me).

Top-tier
CLE: 621, 173, 153, 115, 76
CHW: 157, 129, 128, 118, 74
OAK: 173, 127, 118, 107, 103
BOS: 175, 109, 102, 101, 78

Run-of-the-mill
KC: 220, 113, 108, 75, 67
TEX: 192, 126, 119, 84, 48
LAA: 164, 155, 95, 84, 52
TOR: 182, 116, 98, 91, 82
SEA: 116, 113, 94, 71, 70
TB: 134, 118, 106, 81, 81
BAL: 116, 116, 100, 62 (no clear 5th starter)

Bottom-tier
DET: 135, 86, 71, 68, 68
NY: 140, 101, 92, 48, 45
MIN: 101, 100, 96, 73 (no clear 5th)

That's how I define the performances - this is just based on a rudimentary examination of ERA+, which I know isn't the best predictor, but does provide a good, quick glance to see how everyone has performed.

Open to hearing your argument for why they belong in the top-tier.

uglyone - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#185329) #

Gotta love the irony of keeping in a struggling McGowan to face Morneau, when he's over 100 pitches, with only a 1 run lead.......while in game 1, a locked-in Litsch gets pulled on 70 pitches, with a two run lead, to avoid that same matchup. Both bad decisions leading to loud RBI from Morneau.

And what's better, now that that early hook in game 1 has forced Gibby to use 10 relief appearances already this series, which guys have anything left in the tank to get us through the next 4 innings? Benitez?

uglyone - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#185330) #

I think it's pretty hard to say that Toronto's rotation has performed as well as the Indians, White Sox, A's, or Red Sox rotation has done so far.

The Red Sox? really?

S.Marcum: 56.2ip, 7.8k/9, 0.81whip, 2.22era
D.Matsuzaka: 47.2ip, 7.6k/9, 1.22whip, 2.45era

R.Halladay: 69.2ip, 7.1k/9, 1.06whip, 3.49era
J.Beckett: 47.0ip, 9.0k/9, 1.11whip, 4.21era

D.McGowan: 51.1ip, 6.7k/9, 1.44whip, 4.38era
T.Wakefield: 48.2ip, 5.0k/9, 1.38whip, 4.25era

A.J.Burnett: 51.0ip, 7.3k/9, 1.53whip, 4.94era
C.Buchholz: 42.1ip, 9.1k/9, 1.63whip, 5.53era

J.Litsch: 46.0ip, 5.3k/9, 1.17whip, 4.11era
J.Lester: 57.0ip, 5.2k/9, 1.47whip, 3.95era

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#185331) #

And Boston plays in Fenway (a hitter's park) while Toronto plays in the Rogers Center (a neutral park), thus with Boston's pitchers having similar outcomes throughout the rotation, Boston's pitching staff has performed better.

China fan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#185332) #

Even if you group the pitchers according to their ERA+, as CJF has done, it's pretty clear that the Jays rotation is as good or better than the Red Sox rotation. So that would put them into the "top tier" in the league.

cascando - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#185333) #

Gotta love the irony of keeping in a struggling McGowan to face Morneau, when he's over 100 pitches, with only a 1 run lead.......while in game 1, a locked-in Litsch gets pulled on 70 pitches, with a two run lead, to avoid that same matchup. Both bad decisions leading to loud RBI from Morneau.

That's not irony. What's more, it was the 5th inning and McGowan had given up 1 hit.

And what's better, now that that early hook in game 1 has forced Gibby to use 10 relief appearances already this series, which guys have anything left in the tank to get us through the next 4 innings? Benitez

You just said it was a "bad decision" to leave McGowan in. The pen is well rested, even if lots of them have pitched in the last couple of days. Frasor and Tallet are both coming off over a week off. The bullpen has been almost perfect in this series, so it is hard to fault

uglyone - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#185334) #

And what's better, now that that early hook in game 1 has forced Gibby to use 10 relief appearances already this series, which guys have anything left in the tank to get us through the next 4 innings? Benitez?

and ARMANDO it is!

....and a very tidy inning for him, no less.

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#185335) #

Even if you group the pitchers according to their ERA+, as CJF has done, it's pretty clear that the Jays rotation is as good or better than the Red Sox rotation. So that would put them into the "top tier" in the league.

I dunno - 4 above average pitchers (Boston) versus 2 (Toronto).

It depends on how you like a team I guess. Do you value having the highest "average" pitcher or do you value having talent evenly spread out. Toronto's comes out ahead if you prefer the former (which seems to be your thinking) - Boston's staff has done better if you prefer the latter (my thinking).

mendocino - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#185336) #

ESPN Jason Stark

"EYES ON SAN DIEGO: Here's one AL executive's nomination for a club that could go into early selling mode: The Padres. "The vibes we're getting is that they already know it's not happening for them this year," the exec said. "So they may be the first team that tries to be opportunistic." Among the Padres the shoppers figure to keep their eye on: Khalil Greene, Kevin Kouzmanoff (to open third base for Chase Headley), Randy Wolf and any bullpen arms the Padres would talk about."

Jeff Blair mentions the Jays interest in Greene from the '02 draft.

uglyone - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#185337) #

That's not irony.

ironical, then.

What's more, it was the 5th inning and McGowan had given up 1 hit.

but was struggling badly, had walked 5, hit a batter, and thrown a run scoring wild pitch, and was over 100 pitches.

You just said it was a "bad decision" to leave McGowan in. The pen is well rested, even if lots of them have pitched in the last couple of days. Frasor and Tallet are both coming off over a week off. The bullpen has been almost perfect in this series, so it is hard to fault

"well-rested" is a bit of a stretch.

in the last 3 days:

B.J.Ryan: 2gm, 2.0ip
S.Downs: 3gm, 2.2ip (yesterday)
B.Tallet: 1gm, 0.1ip (yesterday)
J.Frasor: 1gm, 1.1ip
S.Camp: 2gm, 1.0ip (yesterday)
J.Carlson: 3gms, 0.1ip (yesterday)
A.Benitez: 1gm, 0.1ip

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#185338) #

Uglyone,

That list you gave there looks well rested to me. There are 2 guys that are likely unavailable (Downs & Carlson), but that still leaves 5 guys as options.

Of those 5, 3 guys had the day off yesterday and another has only pitched once in the last 4 days.

uglyone - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#185339) #

I see Frasor there as well rested and dependable. (used today)

I see Benitez there as well rested and a wildcard. (used today)

I see Tallet as somewhat rested and dependable. (used today)

I see Ryan as qestionable coming off his first back to back games of the year.

I see Camp and Carlson as available only as a last resort. (both used today).

I see Downs as completely unavailable.

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#185340) #

Uglyone - without even taking issue with Tallet that still looks well-rested to me. 5 guys available.

As to Tallet - why do you list him as only somewhat rested after 8 pitches and one outing in the last 4 days?

Since we're going around in circles a bit - what is a well-rested bullpen in your mind?

owen - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#185341) #

I think it made sense to pull McGowan based on the pitch count and his wildness. But we now have to be concerned about the bullpen tomorrow, I think. It's still Purcey starting, no?

uglyone - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#185342) #

fair enough with Tallet....I thought he went longer yesterday than 8 pitches.

as for what i consider well-rested......well, 3 days ago, we had a well-rested bullpen.

Pistol - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#185343) #

Jeff Blair mentions the Jays interest in Greene from the '02 draft.

That's a pretty ugly line that Greene is working on this year.

tstaddon - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#185344) #

Given that Jesse Litsch volunteered to start tomorrow's game in light of his short appearance Tuesday, I'd think that he would be available if something terrible were to befall Purcey. Otherwise, David probably gets to gut out 5-6 innings and everyone gets a longer look at what we've got.

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#185345) #

The comments on Greene led me to look up this year's RZR ... am I the only one stunned to see Eckstein as the 3rd best shortstop by RZR this year? And the best SS on the team so far?

As to how good his RZR is? Last year, only Omar Vizquel did better than Eckstein is doing so far.

tstaddon - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#185346) #

Oh, and three cheers for Mighty Joe Inglett! Here's hoping he survives tomorrow's pending demotion -- after all, he could easily man 2B/SS with Hill playing emergency shortstop for a day. Perhaps Velandia gets designated tomorrow and Luna comes up Saturday. That, or maybe the newly-versatile (but otherwise identical) Russ Adams gets called upon for being National League-friendly.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#185347) #

Eckstein has always done well by the fielding metrics. UZR had him at +19/162G for 2000-03 and +10/162G for 03-Jun 07. Chris Dial had him at +9/162G for 2006 (Dewan had him at +7/162G). He has never looked as good as these numbers would suggest, and his arm is weak.

Personally, I doubt very much that he is an above-average defensive shortstop at this point in his career, but I also suspect that he remains better than he appears (which is pretty poor).

China fan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#185348) #

What a fantastic victory today.   I feel sorry for all the pessimists who have already written off this season as a "bust."   They're missing some exciting games.
   Lots of problems remain, of course. Wilkerson and Mench aren't showing us much so far. Their previous employers might have been astute in dumping them -- there might not be much left in the tank for either of them. Elsewhere in the lineup, Rios is still mired in a very worrisome slump, and Hill and Overbay need to improve significantly if the Jays are to have any chance at all this season.
   But how about Joe Inglett? This guy has done nothing but hit solidly all season -- in two leagues. I'd love to see him get a much longer try-out with the big team. Please don't send him back to Syracuse to make room for Eckstein or McDonald. Find a way to keep him on the team.   Free Joe Inglett!

China fan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#185349) #

Oh, and all hail Scott Rolen. And Matt Stairs. That is all.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#185350) #

It was my feeling at the beginning of the year that Inglett has a useful bench role for this club, and it was situations like today's that I had in mind. The boxscore says that they played Inglett at short in the bottom of the eleventh, rather than moving Hill over. That would surprise me a bit, and mlb often changes them later on.

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#185351) #

I feel sorry for all the pessimists who have already written off this season as a "bust." They're missing some exciting games.

As one of those who has already written this season off (not as a bust, but as far as making the playoffs) - I do still enjoy the games and am not missing them.

Hell, I live on the North side of Chicago - it's the rare year here that can't be written off before Spring Training is over.

The people I've always felt sorry for as fans are those that can't enjoy games without a sense their team is going to win / make the playoffs. Baseball should be great fun regardless ... admittedly having fun is easier to do with Wrigley than with the Rogers Centre.

Don't get me wrong - criticism of everything (players, umps, GMs, managers) is not something I'm disagreeing with - I think that's part of the fun. I just feel sorry for those of the "if we're not winning, I'm packing up and going home" type.

brent - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#185352) #

game 42- WPA heroes Downs (5), Stairs (6), Wilkerson, Rolen (4) WPA let downs Rios (13), Zaun (7), Overbay (11)

John Northey - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#185353) #

Hmm.

Khalil Greene is making $11 million for 08/09.
Age: 28, lifetime hitting is around a 100 OPS+ (98 at the moment) with his 4 full time seasons (first year was just 20 games) ranging between 95 and 114. This year is ugly at 59 (213-259-327).

Postive: fair amount of power for a SS, 3 years of 15 HR and one at 27 while playing in a pitchers park
Negative: walk to strikeout ratio: 162-454 or 44-124 per 162 games.

His RZR is 839-799-832-848 over his 4 full seasons (842 so far this year).
For comparison: Eckstein: 816-844-841-783 plus 875 this year (sure didn't look it eh?)
McDonald: 717-912/806 (split between Toronto/Detroit) - 837 - 845 and a 765 this year

So his defense isn't terrible, and he got to 59 balls 'out of zone' last year vs McDonald's 51.

I'd take him as his contract works nicely covering '08 and '09 with '10 being the absolute earliest any help from the farm is coming. His poor numbers this season would help in the trade front too. I know I wouldn't give up too much for him though.

John Northey - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#185354) #

CJF: I agree completely. Those who feel this team is a playoff lock are being silly, but so are those who stop watching or let it get too much to them (which happens to me at times).

The game can always be fun. Pick a player and follow him, it adds a lot of fun to the game. Watch for the Canadians, or for guys from a place in the states you have visited. Cheer on knuckleballers, or short guys, or fat guys, or whatever. Watch for the weird plays that baseball lends itself to.

Baseball is a fun game and taking it too seriously just moves you towards football and that is just evil :)

Lefty - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#185355) #

Agreed, and I would add to that the type that is amused by rubbing salt into the wounds of those who just love to enjoy the game. Some sort of juvenile macho attitude that is stimulated by repeatedly pointing out obvious deficiencies. Yes we get it.

HollywoodHartman - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#185356) #

Sadly I don't believe tomorrow's game will be televised either.

Chuck - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#185357) #

Negative: walk to strikeout ratio: 162-454 or 44-124 per 162 games.

One more negative. While is OPS+ of 98 is certainly good for a shortstop, it is very SLG-heavy and therefore overstates his true offensive value (which is still above average for a shortstop, but less so than his OPS+ would suggest).

Oddly, he walked as a rookie (484 AB, 53 BB though 10 IBB) but has eschewed the free pass (2007: 611 AB, 29 UIBB) as his power has developed.

Greene certainly fits the hitting profile of another guy the Jays got from the Padres.

Chuck - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#185358) #

If the Rays can hang on against NY, today will end with the Rays in first place and the Yankees in last. Cue the grumbling Steinbrenner, who is acting like the ghost of Steinbrenner past.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#185359) #

Greene certainly fits the hitting profile of another guy the Jays got from the Padres

Wrong ex-Padre.

Walks decreasing,strikeouts increasing is a hitting profile that no one in the scouting/sabermetrics divide likes. Greene's rookie year had the markings of a very good to great player; it hasn't turned out that way so far. PETCO has knocked down his power numbers, but his W/K is below average everywhere.

Alex Obal - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#185360) #

The people I've always felt sorry for as fans are those that can't enjoy games without a sense their team is going to win / make the playoffs. Baseball should be great fun regardless.

Bullseye.

Greene is a big-time flyball hitter (34.8% GB in his career and falling) stuck in a really bad ballpark for flyball hitters. He does have some power - 9.7% career HR/fly despite playing in San Diego. I wouldn't give up anything of significant value for him but I doubt moving to a more righty-homer-hitter-friendly park would be the worst thing in the world for him.

scottt - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#185361) #

Wilkerson and Mench aren't showing us much so far. Their previous employers might have been astute in dumping them

More like they had better options in the outfield. The Jays don't, unless Lind finds freedom.

Kubel would like to sign a long term contract with the Twins. He's trying to show them that he's fully recovered from the knee injury that cost him the entire 2005 season. Might explain why he ran through the signs trying to score from first.

Rolen is still the man.

China fan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#185362) #

I can certainly understand anyone who PREDICTS that the Jays will fail to make the playoffs this year. What I can't understand is anyone who states, with 100 per cent confidence, that it is IMPOSSIBLE for the Jays to make the playoffs this year. Even if the odds are 90 per cent against the Jays, I don't see how anyone can declare that it is completely impossible for the Jays to make the playoffs if they fall a few games out of first place in early May. And yet that is what some people were basically saying when they proclaimed that this season was a bust, a write-off.
I agree with anyone who has multiple reasons for enjoying a baseball season. At the same time, I am a Jays fan, and I enjoy the season a lot more when the Jays have some conceivable chance of making the playoffs -- even if that is unlikely. I don't like it when people try to spoil my enjoyment by declaring that my dream is impossible. As long as there is even a 5 per cent chance of it happening, I want to cling to my dream.
Now that the Yankees are in last place (assuming no 9th-inning comeback today), I wonder if any Yankee fans have already declared that it is impossible for their team to make the playoffs. Some fans might think it unlikely for the Yankees to make the playoffs, but I doubt that any Yankee fans have flatly stated that it is simply impossible for their team to make the playoffs this year. So why are so many Jays fans such perennial pessimists?

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#185366) #

I can certainly understand anyone who PREDICTS that the Jays will fail to make the playoffs this year. What I can't understand is anyone who states, with 100 per cent confidence, that it is IMPOSSIBLE for the Jays to make the playoffs this year.

Are you referring to me with this (I ask because earlier I said I commented as one who views the playoffs out of reach this year)?

I say very few things with 100% confidence, and I'm not saying with 100% confidence the Jays won't make the playoffs (I must give credit to you for a great straw man though as I can't think of a single post here that has stated with 100% certainty the Jays won't make the playoffs). I do think it is very close to 100% certainty though.

However, I'm in a good mood after we won, so I'm not going to be bated into describing what I see as the problems with the current team.

Dave Till - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#185367) #

More and more bottom 20 payroll teams are locking up players earlier and earlier.

Which is why the Yankees are in last place now - other teams are no longer needing to shed salaries by trading expensive stars to New York. The Bombahs didn't sign any top-rank free agents in the off season; their starting lineup is creaky (and getting injured some, as creaky oldsters tend to do), and their pitching rotation consists of one very good pitcher, two very old pitchers, and two black holes. And now, various Steinbrenners are taking potshots at them in the local papers. It couldn't happen to a more deserving team.

I am grateful that I am not a Minnesota Twins fan. They played some unsound baseball: missing cutoff men, throwing baseballs in odd directions, getting caught off first after long singles, running through stop signs at third, and generally playing in a vaguely clueless fashion. Can you imagine what the response would be in Toronto if the Jays played like that?

As for the Jays: watching Stairs hit his grand slam was a joyful experience - he was obviously sitting on a fastball and zoning down to his location of choice, as he hit that like he knew it was coming.

And why, exactly, did Tony LaRussa not like Scott Rolen?

China fan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#185368) #

CJF: You seem to have a nuanced view of things, so I'm sure you never said that it's impossible for the Jays to make the playoffs. I wasn't referring to you. I was referring to several people -- and there definitely were such posts -- who called the season a bust and a write-off. I didn't make a note of the names of the posters (I'm not obsessive), but at the time I was bothered by their complete certainty that nothing good could happen this year. In retrospect, it was probably the emotion of a losing streak that did it to them. I hope they are back to enjoying the ups and downs of an interesting Blue Jay team -- often a very frustrating team, but a team with great pitching and a number of good hitters who potentially could pull this team into contention.

CeeBee - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#185370) #

"Don't get me wrong - criticism of everything (players, umps, GMs, managers) is not something I'm disagreeing with - I think that's part of the fun. I just feel sorry for those of the "if we're not winning, I'm packing up and going home" type."
Amen brother, if I may call a fellow baseball fan a brother. I'm also getting tired of the pack it up and go home types but am willing to forgive and forget and just get on with enjoying baseball..... which in my opinion it a sport that was invented for that very reason. :)

timpinder - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#185372) #

Unless Greene can be had for essentially nothing more than the cost of absorbing his contract, I'd prefer it if the Jays passed on him. If they're going to have to give up value they should go after someone like Hu, a potential lead-off hitter with great defense, not a guy with a career OBP around .300 who launches a jack every once and a while. They already have that guy in Barajas. I just don't think Greene would be a big enough improvement to warrant trading anything of value. Otherwise, in my opinion, the Jays should finish out this year with an Eckstein-McDonald offence/defence platoon and hope Furcal isn't extended by the Dodgers.

jeff mcl - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#185374) #

Playing anywhere else, I reckon Khalil Greene would get some All Star consideration if not necessarily selection.

There's no question that Petco has ruined his overall numbers:

Road: .275 .326 .503
Home: .227 .289 .365

There were only 5 shortstops last year with an OPS better than .830: Ramirez/Rollins/Renteria/Jeter/Tulowitzki (just barely).

He has indicated that he has no intention of re-signing in San Diego after next season and has intimated that he'd like to play closer to his home (Pennslyvania), which means Kevin Towers doesn't have a huge amount of trade leverage. Toronto is close-ish to Western PA and one would hope he'd be ok with playing here. I sure as hell would like to see him in a Jays uni.

Flex - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#185376) #

"a guy with a career OBP around .300 who launches a jack every once and a while"

If I didn't know better I'd think you were talking about Alex Gonzalez.

Waveburner - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#185377) #

Gibbons is definitely testing the theories on pitcher usage. Carlson has now pitched on 7 of the last 8 days, missing only the rainout day on Sunday. Granted a few of those were one batter outings, but that's a lot of warming up in the pen. Hopefully the guy has a rubber arm.

Jdog - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#185378) #

At least Downs was given a day off today, lets hope Purcey has a little better control tommorrow and can give us at least 6 innings

Magpie - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#185379) #

Gibbons is definitely testing the theories on pitcher usage.

Which is quite interesting, because Gibbons simply didn't do that sort of thing in 2007. (I've been studying this very issue for all the AL managers!)

Magpie - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#185380) #

There's no question that Petco has ruined [Khalil Greene's] overall numbers

I think it would be remarkable if it hasn't damaged his confidence and his approach as well. It is impossible to overstate the Petco factor. It is the worst hitting environment baseball has ever been played in, relative to the rest of the league.

Mylegacy - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#185382) #

Well Magpie - I say we Free Khalil!

Jimbag - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#185383) #

Didn't see today's game, but I've been enjoying every game so far this year (usually from the 4th or 5th inning on, due to the time difference) - even the series in Cleveland. Seeing an unassisted triple play is always entertaining, even if the team you're cheering for is the one that gets victimized.

I can understand fans being upset - the losing streak, injuries to both Eck and Macdonald, followed up by Wells breaking his wrist. Add to that the streak of scoreless innings, and you have a pretty good recipe for pessimism. Scutaro has been pretty decent filling in so far, and Rios in CF doesn't frighten me at all -he doesn't get the same jump on fly balls that Wells does, but I think he's a little bit faster and has a stronger arm. The OF will be okay until Wells gets back - not great, but hopefully good enough.

Keeping a balanced view of the season is important - no reason to bail on the team when things don't go well, or get too elated with a bit of a hot streak...so far it seems like when the Jays get a little luck (as they have lately) they win, and when they don't - well, we've seen what happens when they don't. Aside from being blown out once, they've been in every game right up until the last out, and I expect that to continue throughout the course of the season. If they can put together a little streak here and there and muddle around .500 the rest of the time, they'll still be in the hunt right up until the final out of the final game.

I'm still cautiously optimistic about this season...realistically I'd say their chances of making the post-season aren't very good, but it's not like they're 11 games out or anything (see NL west). 3 back of Boston isn't too bad a place to be at this juncture, and 4 back of the Rays is fine, too, since I think they'll stumble a bit down the road. We'll all just have to watch and see how it all plays out, and in the meantime, watching half a game when I get home from work is a pretty good way to spend an evening. It'd be even better if more than only 8 of the next 15 games were televised. Yikes!

williams_5 - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#185386) #

Unfortunately I didnt know this until now, but I just noticed that I'm able to watch today's game in its entirety through mlb.com for free now that it is over (though I am unsure how much time needs to elapse upon completion before it becomes available). This seems like a good option for games (esp. afternoon games) that aren't available on TV - just watch it on the computer in the evening. I went to the game recap on Yahoo and found the link there.

Waveburner - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#185388) #

I was wondering just how young Litsch (03/09/85) is to be a starter in the AL. So I looked around and found 3 active starters in the league younger than him, plus one on the DL (Hughes 06/24/86) and one bullpen pitcher (Just one in the league, I expected more-Joba 09/23/85). One is a lefty (Laffey 04/15/85) with 4 starts under his belt (4 terrific ones albeit), another lefty born on the same day (Danks 04/15/85) and super phenom King Felix (04/08/86). That's pretty rare company. He has a 3.9 K/BB, 1.17 WHIP and his H/9IP is an acceptable 9.20. His K/9 is low at 5.29 but if he keeps his walks low and hits respectable he'll have a long career.

Thomas - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 03:20 AM EDT (#185390) #

Those ridiculous home/road splits by Greene don't just come over a couple of hundred of at-bats, either. Over the last four years, before the 2008 season, the splits broke down as:
Home: 1,059 plate appearances: .230, .292, .377
Road: 1,090 plate appearances: .280, .334, .511

As Mike points out, you have to wonder how hitting in PETCO could be ruining Greene's confidence or changing his batting approach. However, there was just as big a contrast in his home and road stats last year as there was the previous years, so it seems like production-wise Greene continues to excel anywhere that isn't PETCO.

He doesn't even have to hit like he does on the road to be a valuable shortstop. If he was able to gain two-thirds of the home-road differential if he moved to a neutral park like SkyDome, he'd be a good shortstop.

Timbuck2 - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#185403) #

Actually Greene stats reminds me of another former Blue Jays shortstop.

John Northey - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#185412) #

Even the site that tends to dislike the Jays doesn't have them as 0 odds.

Postseason odds for the Jays...
PECOTA version: 5.3% (uses PECOTA projections for players)
ELO version: 21.9% (uses a method used in poker iirc)
Standard version: 27.97% (uses this years stats only)

Not too horrid really.
The standard gives sub-2% to the Padres, Giants, Nationals and under 3% to the Mariners.
ELO puts the Mariners, Nationals, Reds, Padres and Giants (2%) under 5%
PECOTA shoots down the hopes (sub 5%) of the Orioles (under 1%), Twins, Royals, Mariners, Marlins (4.7% while in 1st in the NL East), Nationals, Pirates, Giants and Padres.

Must suck for Padres, Giants, Nationals fans. All 3 methods say there is better odds of, lets say, the NDP becoming the new government of Canada than of them making the playoffs.

ayjackson - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#185417) #

There are four teams in the AL that have separated from the .500 pack - the Red Sox, Angels, Rays and Athletics. If we were to assume that the Sox and the Angels are still the favourites for their respective divisions (not unreasonable), then the A's and the Rays are the teams to catch for the Wildcard.

I think there it is very reasonable to suggest that the Rays and A's could both struggle to get past 92 wins. The A's currently have a seemingly unsustainable performance level in clutch situations. As for the Rays, I think they'll have some rough stretches where tough losses turn into losing streaks. With the parity in the AL, it seems that 89-90 wins could be in the equation for the Wildcard.

With this in mind, how can you discount the theoretical chances of the Jays to make the playoffs?

Is catching the Rays and A's all we have to do to make the playoffs? Surely it is the Yankees and Tigers that we should be more concerned about outperforming?

[Now that I've written this, I see there's a poll hinting at this very topic.)

peiscooter - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#185444) #

This certainly isn't aimed at anyone in particular. Maybe I'm just tired after a long week, but I'm finding it hard to understand why there should be any debate on whether the Jays have a shot at a playoff spot.

119 games left to make up a 4 game deficit. If we had only 19 games left, we'd consider ourselves in pennant race. 119 left and we're either on the bubble or out of it?

ChicagoJaysFan - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#185447) #

This certainly isn't aimed at anyone in particular. Maybe I'm just tired after a long week, but I'm finding it hard to understand why there should be any debate on whether the Jays have a shot at a playoff spot.

119 games left to make up a 4 game deficit. If we had only 19 games left, we'd consider ourselves in pennant race. 119 left and we're either on the bubble or out of it?

As someone who considers the Jays to have very low shot at a playoff spot, I'll explain my reasoning.

The difference (at least for me) is that if there were only 19 games left, then the number of games out would actually matter. With 119 to go, I don't think it does at all. (This ignores the fact that games back, by itself, is a border-line useless statistic. If the Jays were 4 games out with 19 to go and had 3 teams in front of them - they'd essentially be eliminated in that case as well)

Getting back to the topi c- what matters now is do the Jays look like they are capable of getting to 95 wins (or even 90+, although that's being extremely generous). 95 wins (or at least 94) is what the wildcard team has had in the AL just about every year (I looked it up a while ago, not going year-by-year to verify right now).

To get there, the Jays will have to play .620 pace the rest of the way. This streak that the Jays have had in May (9-5) - that's what it will take for the rest of the year (.620 would be 8.7 wins).

I don't think the Jays have that - they've dug too big of a hole for themselves.

Mike Green - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#185452) #

Many of us saw the Jays as a 84 win true talent team at the beginning of the season. Not much has changed since then. Can an "84 win true talent" team win 90 games if it starts off 20-22? Of course. It happens, albeit not too often.

Will 90 wins be enough in 2008? Personally, I think that there is evidence of greater parity in the AL this year than we have seen in many, many years.

peiscooter - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#185453) #

I don't think the Jays have that - they've dug too big of a hole for themselves.

True, they've had a rough start to the season. I guess my point is that nobody is really running away with things in the AL and therefore, with 119 games left, there is lots of time to make a good run.

The way the AL is shaping up this year, (Tampa, Oakland and Baltimore unexpectedly in contention), this could be a year in which 88-90 wins garners a playoff spot.

I just feel that with 119 games left, the Jays, Yankees, and Tigers (expected to contend) have lots of time to do so.

ChicagoJaysFan - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#185455) #

Not much has changed since then.

I disagree - we've cut our best hitter from last year and have not replaced him with anyone expected to put up close to a 130 OPS+.

ChicagoJaysFan - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#185456) #

The way the AL is shaping up this year, (Tampa, Oakland and Baltimore unexpectedly in contention), this could be a year in which 88-90 wins garners a playoff spot.

It seems that every year recently, people say the same thing ...

Last year the Yankees started horribly and everyone said it was open for the taking. Then they signed Clemens and got some help from young pitchers and won 94 games
In 2006, the Sox sucked all year and everyone said that year was different than every other year - but Detroit came from almost nowhere to win 95 games
2005 Baltimore was way out in front and the Yankees were middling along (22-20) and everyone said that was different (sound familiar?), then the Yankees and Red Sox each ended up with 95 wins

It's going to take 95 wins - the odds that no division is able to have two teams with that many wins just aren't that good.

ayjackson - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#185458) #

So what you're telling us CJF, is that we should draw no conclusions from the first six weeks, yet you think we might as well fold are tents. Yet every year, a different team plays .620 ball for three quarters of the season to make the playoffs.

ChicagoJaysFan - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#185459) #

So what you're telling us CJF, is that we should draw no conclusions from the first six weeks, yet you think we might as well fold are tents. Yet every year, a different team plays .620 ball for three quarters of the season to make the playoffs.

No - that's not what I'm saying at all.

I'm saying the following:

To get there, the Jays will have to play .620 pace the rest of the way. This streak that the Jays have had in May (9-5) - that's what it will take for the rest of the year (.620 would be 8.7 wins). I don't think the Jays have that

I don't recall ever saying anything about folding tents. Why does it have to be so extreme where having a small chance means that you should pack things in.

I think the Jays chances are extremely low to make the playoffs right now - how does that at all translate to the Jays should fold their tents? Does the fact that you think the Jays shouldn't fold their tents imply that you think they are playoff favorites?

ayjackson - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#185460) #

I don't recall ever saying anything about folding tents. Why does it have to be so extreme where having a small chance means that you should pack things in.

Sometimes I just exaggerate for dramatic effect. I was a bit cheek as I knew that wasn't what you said. Apologies.

CeeBee - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#185467) #

Record needed over the remainder of the season to reach the magical 95 wins and a playoff spot.

Tampa 71-50

LA 71-48

Bos 71-48

Oak 72-48

Cleve 73-48

Bal 74-48

Tor 74-45

Chi 75-47

Min 75-47

Tex 75-45

NY 75-45

KC 76-46

Det 79-42

Sea 79-41

The A.L. sure looks competitve(weak?) this year, doesn't it.

Radster - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#185470) #

I still don't think that 95 wins will be required. Since 2003, the division that produced the AL wild card winner also had two teams with 90 or more losses (with the exception of one year, where one team was over 90 losses and another at 88). The unbalanced schedule has played a factor where there are two seemingly weak teams in one division (along with at least two strong teams).

I also note that the projections that John Northey links predict that 90 - 93 wins will be enough, with no division having a team that is predicted to have two teams losing more than 90 games.