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Next up are the surprise leaders of the AL Central. Minnesota has a -1 run differential on the year but finds itself 1.5 games ahead of Cleveland, despite the fact that Adam Everett is tied for sixth on the team in homers. The Jays' inability to hit with runners in scoring position will meet a stiff challenge this week from a couple of starters with strand rates in the 50s.


Kevin Slowey makes his third start of the year tonight. He missed a month in between the first two with a strained biceps. Slowey has always had excellent K/BB ratios and seems like a promising candidate to be the next Josh Towers. He throws a lot of fastballs and cutters - more than 80% of the time according to Fangraphs, assuming that what Fangraphs calls an 86-mph slider is actually his cutter - plus the odd curve and change to keep hitters honest. Slowey has a reputation for impeccable fastball command, but that command has been missing in action this year, probably due to the injury in his first start and rust in his second:



Slowey has surrendered 8 baserunners this year: 3 homers, 4 doubles, 1 single and 0 walks. Could this be the cure for the Jays' missing power? Maybe. Vernon Wells was 3-3 with a homer against Slowey last year. He will be missed. Everyone else combined was 2-15 with (obviously) zero walks. Slowey also has a reverse platoon split over his short career.

Tomorrow, it's the quite average Boof Bonser. Bonser is a four-pitch guy with pretty good ratios. He has been solid this year in every respect except stranding runners: his 58.5% LOB over seven starts is the leading cause of his 5.09 ERA. Could this be the cure for the Jays' missing clutchitude? Maybe. Bonser has a 188-point platoon split in the normal direction. Fangraphs says he only throws his change 7.3% of the time, which might be a sign that it's really a show pitch that isn't on the same level as his breaking balls, and an explanation for why lefties cause Bonser so much trouble.

Thursday, it's a Getaway Game starring Minnesotan lefty Glen Perkins, who makes his second start of the year. Perkins is a 25-year-old lefty who spent some time in the second half last year in the Twins' bullpen. He's spent most of this year in AAA, where he's put up a 2.97 ERA and a 2-1 record (very important) in six starts using Lefty Intangibles and... not a whole lot else, as the chart attests. Could this be the cure for the Jays' missing ability to hit anyone who throws with their left hand? Maybe. In Perkins' first start, he went six competent innings allowing three runs to the Red Sox in a 5-2 loss.

Pat Neshek has a partially torn UCL and is probably out for the season. Unfortunate. Here's Aaron Gleeman's take on the situation and a breakdown of where the Twins' bullpen stands now. Gleeman points out that Neshek has finished third among all AL non-closer relievers in WPA two years in a row. Dennys Reyes is a very competent lefty specialist, and between Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier it's pretty likely that someone else will have a good enough season to serve as a setup man, due to the laws of reliever volatility.

Matt Tolbert is getting a lot of playing time at second base, replacing Alexi Casilla's anemic bat from last year. Matt who? 16th round pick in 2004 out of Ole Miss who's put up pretty good offensive numbers at every level throughout his minor-league career. He's a switch-hitter. Brendan Harris, from last year's Devil Rays, is starting at second tonight.

Finally, just for my own information and amusement (and possibly yours), here's how the Twins' two big trades are looking at the moment:

Johan Santana (MLB): 52.1 ip, 3.10 era, 6.5 ip/gs, 24.2% k, 6.0% bb, 38% gb, 1.11 whip, 1.08 wpa

Carlos Gomez (MLB): 138 pa, .268/.288/.304, 16 sb, 3 cs, -0.12 wpa
Kevin Mulvey (AAA): 38.0 ip, 4.03 era, 5.4 ip/gs, 20.9% k, 8.7% bb, 45% gb, 1.50 whip
Philip Humber (AAA): 34.0 ip, 5.29 era, 4.5 ip/gs, 12.9% k, 9.8% bb, 43% gb, 1.82 whip
Deolis Guerra (A+): 33.1 ip, 4.32 era, 5.0 ip/gs, 14.4% k, 8.2% bb, 43% gb, 1.38 whip

Matt Garza (MLB): 32.2 ip, 3.86 era, 5.4 ip/gs, 10.2% k, 10.2% bb, 38% gb, 1.38 whip, 0.13 wpa
Jason Bartlett (MLB): 136 pa, .248/.276/.295, -0.93 wpa
Eduardo Morlan (AA): 6.2 innings as a reliever, 6 k, 1 bb, 10 hits, 1.65 whip

Delmon Young (MLB): 149 pa, .271/.315/.307, -0.30 wpa
Brendan Harris (MLB): 132 pa, .259/.320/.362, -0.21 wpa
Jason Pridie (AAA): 166 pa, .247/.291/.347, 26.5% k, 6.6% bb

Finally #2: I finally updated the AL average stats in the chart. They are... quite low this year. Viva deadball.

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100. These are 2008 stats, except where noted.

Advance Scout: Twins, May 13-15 | 38 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Tuesday, May 13 2008 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#185161) #
Although the Twins are 20-17, they are they are 14-16 when their starting pitcher is not named Livan Hernandez. Great pick for them there.
scottt - Tuesday, May 13 2008 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#185163) #
Delmon Young (MLB): 149 pa, .217/.315/.307,   <---- typo there, should be .271
Alex Obal - Tuesday, May 13 2008 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#185164) #
Good catch.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 13 2008 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#185166) #

for the record, I'm very annoyed that Gibbons takes Litsch out on 70 pitches, absolutely in control, only 4 hits and 0 walks, and the only reason a man was on base was because Rolen was playing in so close and missed a playable ground ball.....and I don't care if he was giving up a bunch of flyballs tonight.

that is an awful, awful move by Gibbons.

 

not quite as bad as Gardenhire keeping Slowey in after that Rolen at bat, but pretty damn bad.

scottt - Tuesday, May 13 2008 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#185167) #
Litsch has bad numbers against lefties. Gibbons was just playing it safe.
scottt - Tuesday, May 13 2008 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#185168) #
Kubel just welcomed Benitez back to the Majors. On his first pitch of the year. Ouch.
Waveburner - Tuesday, May 13 2008 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#185169) #

I don't like the move to take out Litsch either. 70 pitches and throwing ahead in the count on every batter. Could have been out of the inning too, I thought they turned that DP. You just pitched a double header. Carlson made his 19th appearance and Downs is making his 18th, having already complained of shoulder tightness 2 plus weeks ago. Don't burn out the pen in May.

On a side note, how unlucky must Edwin Jackson feel tonight? Tosses eight shutout innings against the Jays, Percival blows it. He tosses seven shutout innings against the Yankees and the same thing happens. Although I doubt any Toronto starter has sympathy for him.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 13 2008 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#185170) #
If you don't want Litsh to face Morneau - which is fairly reasonable - just walk him and pitch to the righties after him. It's pretty ridiculous to use a LOOGY in the sixth inning, even if you do have four lefties in the pen.
scottt - Tuesday, May 13 2008 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#185172) #
It's a win and Litsch is now 5-1.

This bothers me less than seeing Doc, AJ or McGowan losing a game in the 8th.

Notice how the 2 starters that get pulled early have winning records and the other 3 don't?

As for taxing the pen, you can blame that on Benitez.

ayjackson - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#185176) #

If you don't want Litsh to face Morneau - which is fairly reasonable - just walk him and pitch to the righties after him.

And put a man into scoring position?  And the tying run on first?  I'm not walking him in that situation.  I like the move by Gibby.  Wins have been hard to come by - and we have a strong and underused 7-man pen.  Doc is going tomorrow.  And Litsch has been pretty awful from pitch 61 on.

92-93 - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#185177) #
"And put a man into scoring position? And the tying run on first? I'm not walking him in that situation. I like the move by Gibby."

Um, Mauer's grounder to Lyle (which he maybe could have turned 2 on without a bobble, haven't seen a highlight) moved the runner over to 2nd, so they COULD have IBBd Morneau, but I wouldn't have done that either, because as you say, it brings the go-ahead run to the plate. It is indefensible to pull a starter having a start like Jesse was having at 70 pitches. It was already pointed out that he was pitching well enough to get out of the inning. With his young starters Gibbons normally lets them pitch straight till the point where they can "lose" the game, and I can't for the life of me comprehend tonight's early pull. The smart thing, IMO, would have been to let Litsch face Morneau - if he loses him, at least there's some justification for such an early pull. If he doesn't, it's exceedingly likely he cruises the 7th as well, and who knows, it's not a stretch to say he could have gone 8. I have no idea why people continue to defend Gibbons' handling of the pen - it is atrocious. And please don't quote me how good their #s are or how good the Jays staff ERA is, because I think that's IN SPITE of Gibbons, not a result of him.
ayjackson - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#185179) #

Um, Mauer's grounder to Lyle (which he maybe could have turned 2 on without a bobble, haven't seen a highlight) moved the runner over to 2nd

Ah yes, forgot about that. (Was the "um" necessary?)

I didn't like Gibbons for his handling of the pitching staff last year, but I've had few complaints this year.  Bullpen decisions by any manager usually meet the approval of some of the fans only some of the time. 

robertdudek - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 01:36 AM EDT (#185181) #
Great pick for them there

So far. His slop might get pasted once teams start to see him a second and third time.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 06:22 AM EDT (#185184) #
It is indefensible to pull a starter having a start like Jesse was having at 70 pitches.

Maybe there's something he knows that you don't. He was there, you weren't. It's not all about pitch counts anyway. There are many, many, many reasons he could have made the change.

Of course, I'm old enough to remember Jimy Williams. After that, I may never complain about how a guy runs a bullpen again.

And please don't quote me how good their #s are or how good the Jays staff ERA is, because I think that's IN SPITE of Gibbons, not a result of him.

That's a wee bit like saying "I don't care how how good his numbers are, that Albert Pujols is a terrible hitter."


scottt - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#185187) #
So far. His slop might get pasted once teams start to see him a second and third time.

I would have though the same of Litsch, but he keeps surprising me. These Twins hit him pretty hard last year.

His record last year was 7-9. So far it's 5-1 and his ERA is down since Gibby screamed at him.
brent - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#185190) #
game 41- WPA heroes Litsch (3), Stairs (5), Hill (8), Frasor, Stewart (4)            WPA let downs Carlson (2), Rolen (3), Rios (12), Zaun (6), Benitez
zeppelinkm - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#185204) #

With the exception of Ryan, I think Gibbons doesn't hesitate to pull a reliever if he is struggling. What this accomplishes is the inability of a particular reliever to do too much damage to his stats in any one "don't have it today" outing.

Therefore, I think a good portion of his relievers consistant success under his management can be attributed to him.

In 2005 the 7 guys who got the vast vast majority of the bullpen work posted these ERA+:

109, 134, 137, 173, 115, 103, and 126. Those last two are the ERA+ of Scott Downs and Pete Walker who made 13 and 4 starts each respectively. The rest of the bullpen which was below average didn't total more then 50 innings as a group.

In 2006, the 7 guys who got the vast majority of the bullpen work posted these ERA+:

333, 153, 70, 112, 106, 120, 180.

In 2007 i'm only going to post the top 6 as the next highest guy pitched 11 and 2/3rds innings:

209, 206, 190, 98, 129, 150.

In 2008, to date:

BJ hasn't allowed a run yet and doesn't have an ERA+, it would probably be one of those silly numbers like 800 or something.

Then:  252, 148, 62 (Accardo), 242, 93. Shawn Camp comes in at 73 and Brian Wolfe at 111.

For a bunch of guys who certainly didn't scream out as premium bullpen arms -

We're talking about: BJ Ryan, Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Justin Speier, Jason Frasor, Vinnie Chulk, Pete Walker, Brandon League, Scott Schoeneweis, Miguel Batista, Casey Jannsen, Brian Wolfe, Jesse Carlson, and finally Shawn Camp.

Out of this batch of 15 pitches, I count 5 definite, maybe 6 "premium arms". My unofficial definition of a premium arm is someone with a proven established track record (Ryan, Speier, Schoeneweis), or great potential in the arm (Accardo, League).

To get consistant, above average production out of guys like Downs (what a great find by the Jays, seriously), Tallet, Frasor, Chulk, and young guns like Jannsen, and who the heck are they's Tallet, Wolfe, and Carlson, and say all this success is in spite of Gibbons bullpen handling, is pretty darn harsh on Gibbons.

Excluding 2008, out of the 3 full seasons Gibbons has managed, the top 21 bullpen guys (top 7 each year), he's had exactly TWO, come in with ERA+ under 100.

zeppelinkm - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#185206) #
Geez, 3 typos. The last sentence should read, out of the 20 pitchers who have dominated the bullpen work over Gibbons 3 full season, only 2. 2 out of 20 as opposed to 2 out of 21.
China fan - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#185207) #
     Jesse Litsch might become the inheritor of the catch-phrase that was always applied to Gustavo Chacin:  he might not have the best stuff on the team, but he always somehow manages to find a way to win.
     Let's hope he has a much longer career than Chacin.


ChicagoJaysFan - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#185218) #
BJ hasn't allowed a run yet and doesn't have an ERA+, it would probably be one of those silly numbers like 800 or something.

I believe it's not that BJ doesn't have an ERA+, but that it is undefined (in the mathematical sense) - one of those divide by 0 things.
zeppelinkm - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#185220) #
CJF: You're right. It's like infinity or something, right?

*SIGH*, that probably means he's due for a bit of regression.  : P
jeff mcl - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#185223) #
And now for something completely different:

No idea how Doc votes, but he's got the endorsement of the Commander in Chief as the best pitcher in baseball.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#185230) #
As long as the Commander-in-Chief thinks and talks about baseball, I am a happy man.
scottt - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#185266) #
Looking at the trades, Gomez has almost the same numbers as Ellsbury has. Better than Lastings Milledge.  I guess  it's not too bad.

Garza has been very good for  the Ray and Delmon Young has been about league average. No HR, but 7 steals.
Too early to call this one.

scottt - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#185268) #
Apparently there's a new formula for success: Rolen fouls a pile of pitches then Stairs goes deep on the frustrated pitcher.
GregJP - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#185271) #
Jamie Campbell analyzing the merits of Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris as HOF candidates just caused me to throw up in my mouth.
scottt - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#185273) #
After 5 innings, Doc has 8 strikeouts, 7 hits, 4 ground balls.

Can't attribute this to Barajas tonight.

John Northey - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#185275) #
Greg, just watching the game on Gameday thus couldn't hear Campbell - what was his conclusion on Blyleven vs Morris?  That Morris 'knew how to win'?
scottt - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#185276) #
Rolen is still the man.

BJ can't close 3 games in a row just yet.

Stewart's numbers have caught on with Wilkerson's.

Apparently there was a piece in The Star on Sunday about Stewart's problems.

"The Toronto Star reports that with the arrival of Kevin Mench and Brad Wilkerson to the Blue Jays, the odd man out appears to be Shannon Stewart. "This is like a bad dream," the 34-year-old veteran said Sunday. "Things happen in life that are unexpected. I went through a lot in the off-season. It was kind of difficult just because of the situation. I knew I wasn't going to be the guy (here). The way I look at it, I was more like insurance. I've had the opportunity to play, but it's been weird." --lifted from CBS. 

Well, if he wasn't going to be the guy, who was? Lind?

GregJP - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#185277) #
Greg, just watching the game on Gameday thus couldn't hear Campbell - what was his conclusion on Blyleven vs Morris?  That Morris 'knew how to win'?

The usual drivel.  He was the best pitcher of the 80's (no he wasn't by almost every metric)  The voters shouldn't look at the numbers so much and realize he came up huge in big games.  So he pitched out a shutout in game 7 of the world series.  So freaking what?  It's one game where he won the BABIP lottery.  Overall, his post season numbers are really no better than his regular season numbers.

It really angers me because Morris was inferior to Stieb if you really look at the numbers.

Blyleven deserves to be in, but there is no way Morris does.
Craig B - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#185280) #

Stieb was certainly better, but Morris wouldn't be a horrible choice (although he is just about at the lowest rung of viable candidates in my view).   There's more to baseball than ERA+, after all. 

The problem with a Morris candidacy is that there are a number of pitchers who are comparable, who are also candidates, and who were better than Morris - guys like Tiant and Reuschel and especially Tommy John.  There are also guys who were just better in shorter but still significant careers, like Stieb or David Cone who I think is eligible now.  He should not come in before them.  There are also a number of guys who were every bit as good as Morris like Jamie Moyer; you'll have a hard time trying to convince me that Morris was better than Moyer is (but then I know that Moyer is terribly underrated - how many recent guys have had an eight-year run like he had from 1996-2003?  126-56 in those years, that is brilliant...)

What Jack Morris has a lot of to sell is durability, and in my mind that's interesting, and very nice, and indeed very valuable, but it doesn't turn my "Hall of Fame" crank like someone like Allie Reynolds, whose numerical candidacy doesn't really stack up even to Morris's but who screams "Hall of Fame" to me.  For some of these guys who are less into history, maybe Morris has the same "feel" to them but I can't see it.

Anyway, that's why they vote on these things.

ahitisahit - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#185284) #
Stairs crushed that ball. I'd be hard pressed to remember a ball hit harder, maybe Vladdy. Rios looks absolutley lost up there. A day off and some video would do him some good. Then again, who's going to play CF?
King Ryan - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#185286) #
That was some great footage, by the way, of Stairs talking to Rios about his at-bat. 

Any chance our friend Aaron got a picture of that?

92-93 - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 02:51 AM EDT (#185291) #

"Well, if he wasn't going to be the guy, who was? Lind? "

I believe Stewie meant that he assumed Stairsy would get most of the starts in LF, but that now that Thomas is gone it's been frustrating for him that first they give the job to Lind and then he sees them pick up Wilkerson AND Mench. He clearly sees the writing on the wall, and it says that when Vernon gets back it's very likely that Stewart is the one to get the axe, if you assume they keep the 4 man bench of Mench, Barajas, McDonald, Scutaro.

92-93 - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 06:20 AM EDT (#185293) #

"It is indefensible to pull a starter having a start like Jesse was having at 70 pitches."

Okay, I just looked ahead at the schedule and maybe realized something. Doc & DMac will probably be starting May 20-21 on 5 days rest, and if the Jays want to keep Burnett & Marcum on their regular schedules that means they pitch May 22-23. That leaves Litsch for the 24th, 11 days after his last start. Could it be that Gibbons was looking ahead and decided he wants to have Litsch throw an inning or 2 behind Purcey on what should be his throw day, to make sure that rust doesn't set in and he keeps the positives flowing? It would still be 7 days between appearances but that has to be better than 11, doesn't it?

scottt - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#185295) #
I believe Stewie meant that he assumed Stairsy would get most of the starts in LF, but that now that Thomas is gone it's been frustrating for him that first they give the job to Lind and then he sees them pick up Wilkerson AND Mench.

Yeah, you're right. Still, Stewart has been getting a lot of ABs and hasn't done much with them. Anyway, what happened to him in the off-season? Just that he didn't get many offers?

Could it be that Gibbons was looking ahead and decided he wants to have Litsch throw an inning or 2 behind Purcey on what should be his throw day, to make sure that rust doesn't set in and he keeps the positives flowing?


That would be thinking ahead quite a bit. Also, I think Doc could use an extra day right now and I'd be careful with Burnett. They are several reasons to keep him healthy the whole year.
92-93 - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 05:52 AM EDT (#185391) #
"Anyway, what happened to him in the off-season? Just that he didn't get many offers?"

Yep, the same thing that happened to most of the free agents in their mid to late 30s. I still can't believe Kenny Lofton doesn't have a job, there has to be someone out there (*cough cough*) that can use a LF to leadoff vs RHP. He hit .313/.386/.452 last year against them.
92-93 - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 05:54 AM EDT (#185392) #
And I just realized how funny it would be if they signed Lofton - Richard Griffin might have a heart attack.
Advance Scout: Twins, May 13-15 | 38 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.