For college hitters there's depth at 1B & 3B this year, particularly right around where the Jays will select in round 1 on June 5th.


When I look at a college line there's a few things I like to see at the top of the draft (it doesn't mean what I'm looking at is right, but it tells me a little more about a player than I might know otherwise):

1. Improvement from year to year. Think of a player repeating rookie ball for three years. You would expect him to improve each year, no?
2. No one year wonders. Players that come of nowhere make me skeptical. Call it the Brian Pettway effect (although in the third round a 'one year wonder' is fine).
3. Strikeout rate under 20%. If you can't make contact in college you'll probably do a lot worse as a pro.
4. Iso Slg in excess of .300. With metal bats you should be driving the ball a lot.
5. A K/BB near 1:1, or less. This is a little tougher to tell since you don't know about intentional walks.

Anyway, here's the consensus top college hitters (from BA, ESPN, and Sickels) - it looks like the first 4 will go in the top 10 and then the rest could go anywhere from 10 to the end of the round 1. Links provided (where available) are from MILB's scouting reports.


Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt:

Player	Year	AB	AVE	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
Pedro Alvarez	2006	240	0.329	0.456	0.675	1.12	21%
Pedro Alvarez	2007	272	0.386	0.463	0.684	1.63	21%
Pedro Alvarez	2008	116	0.302	0.421	0.534	0.86	13%

The Vandy 3B was at one point the clear #1 pick, but a wrist injury at the beginning of the year has slowed him this year. Regardless of that, he's going in the top 5.


Buster Posey, C, Florida St:

Player	Year	AB	AVE	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
Buster Posey	2006	246	0.346	0.433	0.467	1.18	15%
Buster Posey	2007	246	0.382	0.453	0.520	0.84	9%
Buster Posey	2008	188	0.463	0.563	0.835	0.40	7%

The Florida St catcher has shot up the draft boards this season as he's killing everything right now. Apparently the Rays are considering him with the #1 pick. His numbers prior to this year were good, but it has a little bit of a out of nowhere feel to it that would make me skeptical that high. But man, what a line that is, especially for a catcher.


Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia:

Player	Year	AB	AVE	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
Gordon Beckham	2006	286	0.280	0.348	0.490	2.15	18%
Gordon Beckham	2007	228	0.307	0.399	0.570	1.06	12%
Gordon Beckham	2008	195	0.405	0.515	0.836	0.59	9%

You can say similar things about Beckham as you can about Posey. He can apparently stick at SS. I always feel SEC players are a little underrated due to park factors/competition so I'd be pretty bullish on Beckham in the top 10.


Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina:

Player	Year	AB	AVE	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
Justin Smoak	2006	244	0.303	0.407	0.586	0.98	13%
Justin Smoak	2007	260	0.315	0.434	0.631	0.74	13%
Justin Smoak	2008	194	0.392	0.510	0.773	0.54	10%

Another SEC product, the South Carolina 1B has improved nicely each year across the board. He also switch hits which I appreciate more watching how RH the Jays became. He should be another top 10 pick.


Yonder Alonso, 1B, U Miami:

Player	Year	AB	AVE	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
Yonder Alonso	2006	244	0.295	0.373	0.492	1.16	13%
Yonder Alonso	2007	210	0.376	0.519	0.705	0.48	11%
Yonder Alonso	2008	150	0.373	0.537	0.753	0.36	9%

Another 1B, this one from Miami. He looks pretty similar to Smoak (but only a LH hitter), although not quite as highly rated. He could go in the area right around where the Jays select.


Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St:

Player	Year	AB	AVE	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
Brett Wallace	2006	151	0.371	0.439	0.583	1.53	15%
Brett Wallace	2007	265	0.404	0.484	0.687	1.00	12%
Brett Wallace	2008	186	0.414	0.538	0.747	0.66	11%

Wallace was selected by the Jays in the 42nd round 3 years ago. They didn't sign him away from Arizona State and he stands to make a lot more now because of it. He's improved across the board each year. He's currently at 3B, but most feel he'd need to go to 1B in the pros. The Jays liked him once, and I don't think he's done anything to make them feel differently. If he's available to the Jays in the first round I think he might be their target. That he hits LH would be a bonus.


David Cooper, 1B, Cal:

Player	Year	AB	AVE	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
David Cooper	2006	151	0.305	0.337	0.404	2.00	11%
David Cooper	2007	204	0.382	0.450	0.627	0.70	9%
David Cooper	2008	196	0.378	0.468	0.735	0.71	11%

Another lefty 1B, Cooper has been improving each year in college (his first was at Cal St Fullerton).


Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichata St:

Player		Year	AB	AVE	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
Conor	Gillaspie	2006	261	0.352	0.413	0.525	0.89	8%
Conor	Gillaspie	2007	295	0.325	0.358	0.495	2.50	13%
Conor	Gillaspie	2008	183	0.404	0.491	0.667	0.58	8%

Another corner college hitter. The 3B from Wichata St slipped a little in his sophomore year, but is putting up big lines again. Gillaspie was the MVP of the Cape Cod League last year which the Jays seem to value.


Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina:

Player	Year	AB	AVE	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
Reese Havens	2006	239	0.259	0.348	0.368	1.23	13%
Reese Havens	2007	234	0.274	0.337	0.389	2.00	16%
Reese Havens	2008	208	0.365	0.490	0.630	0.71	13%

A college SS likely to move to 3B in the pros. The 2008 line jumps out at me compared to 06 and 07.


Jemile Weeks, 2B, U Miami:

Player	Year	AB	AVE	OBP	SLG	K/BB	K%
Jemile Weeks	2006	256	0.352	0.446	0.555	0.73	9%
Jemile Weeks	2007	188	0.298	0.393	0.489	1.00	12%
Jemile Weeks	2008	172	0.372	0.442	0.669	1.24	12%

Rickie's brother has been on the radar since his freshman year at Miami. What concerns me is that he's not much better today, and he's pretty much stuck at 2B.

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For the Jays if they go the college hitter route it looks like they'll be in the area where Alonso, Wallace and Gillaspie will be taken. If you think Wallace can play 3B in the pros he's probably the most valuable of the three. If not it's probably Alonso. I could reasonably see the Jays taking any of those three players with their first round selection, and I suspect that 2 of the 3 will be available. The Twins, Dodgers, and Brewers all select just ahead of the Jays and haven't typically been interested in the same players.

I haven't heard any scuttlebutt with who the Jays are interested in (not sure if Elliot has anything, I generally avoid the Sun). If anyone's seen anything feel free to link it in the comments.

Next week I'll take a look at the college pitchers.