Rotoworld is harsh on J.P...(as are almost all sources outside Batters Box these days)

"We could be witnessing the beginning of the end for J.P. Ricciardi here. Wells will miss 6-8 weeks, forcing the Jays to put Alex Rios in center. Brad Wilkerson (now worth picking up in AL-only league) and Kevin Mench figure to platoon in right, so the team will have to keep going with Shannon Stewart in left and Matt Stairs at DH, which is how it was typically arranged before the Jays tried to shake things up with the addition of the two veteran outfielders. Adam Lind stays in Triple-A, and the Jays have about killed his trade value by showing no confidence whatsoever in him. Toronto is already in last place, and things look bleaker than ever now. Manager John Gibbons will probably go first, but this is ultimately Ricciardi's responsbility and he should have paid with his job some time ago."

The loss of Wells is a big blow and likely Wells will be impacted even when he returns. Those injuries can take a long time to recover from, particularly power.

Also I would be surprised if Tracy Thorpe gets through waivers, unlike Chacin and Santos.  Thorpe has been pitching well recently.  Thorpe always had a very good fastball it was his breaking ball that was in question.

If Wells misses six to eight weeks, that's not bad - Hideki Matsui missed four months when he broke his wrist in 2005. The Outfielders Audition will have more than two weeks to play itself out, which is a good thing. There's been just a lttle too much impatience in the House of Ricciardi this spring.

So Rios moves into centre, and Wilkerson, Mench, and Stewart rotate in the other two spots. The Ultimate Loser will be terminated when Wells comes back, but he'll have more than two weeks to make his case.

Well as I said on the other thread it may be spring garage sale clean-out time Certainly 2008 ( if it wasn't  already ) is toast. Burnett is on the trade block, Lind should be back up playing everyday. Purcey gets the call at some juncture. The big question is do you pull the plug on the whole thing?

Definitely disappointing to see Thorpe exposed.  I would have preferred exposing Machi or not bringing up Benitez.

This team needs to trade for Dunn or Bay and do it soon. Or JP could swallow his nose and sign the NL's best OPS last year.

JP's secret strategy for Wells' giant salary appears to be having insurance cover as much of it as possible.

Hopefully they trade for Freel and Therriot. If they're not gonna win, might as well go with the all-scrap team.

Certainly 2008 ( if it wasn't  already ) is toast.

Dude - it's May 10th. It's not like VW's 787 OPS (7th in AL CFs, 4th in the AL East) can't be replaced. Rios can play CF. The team will start winning some of these one run games (4-9 record so far). According to the Hardball Times they have the 3rd best Pythag record in the AL.  They have the best pitching staff in team history and play great defence. Things will work out.

Losing Accardo is no big deal.  Losing Wells is terrible.  Not to sound like "chicken little", but that's season altering bad news.  No trades for big bats!!!  If they were in first place I'd say go for it, but a team currently in last place shouldn't even consider trading their future away.  Now is the time to bring Lind up, give him the McGowan and Hill treatment (play every day and see if they come around).  Let Burnett get a few good starts in and put him on the block, same with Eckstein when he's healthy, and Zaun when Diaz is healthy.  We're looking at a month or so from now for those things to come to fruition, approaching the all-star break.  Unless the Jays are back in it at that time, then in my opinion, it's time to re-tool for next year.  I'd even consider moving Overbay, Rolen, and Ryan if the prospects coming back were solid enough (e.g. LaRoche and Hu) :)

Your supposed to say...do you want the good news(Accardo to the DL) or the bad news(wells to the DL).  These moves if made at the start of the years would have led to about the same W-L record as Accardo has cost us at least as many games as Wells has made the diffence in, or is that just the view of a frustrated fan?

The ship is sinking.

Maybe?

The 'pythagorean record' thing always gets a smile here.

I was explaining the 'theory' of the pythagorean record to my son, who skeptically asked me "So which games that we lost did we win?". Pythagorean records mean that the Yankees won the 1960 World Series. It's the last refuge of losing teams.

Dude - it's May 10th. It's not like VW's 787 OPS (7th in AL CFs, 4th in the AL East) can't be replaced. Rios can play CF. The team will start winning some of these one run games (4-9 record so far). According to the Hardball Times they have the 3rd best Pythag record in the AL.  They have the best pitching staff in team history and play great defence. Things will work out.

I disagree with just about everything you wrote in that comment - well, I guess it is May 10, so that's one thing we can agree on.

First - according to Hardball Times, the Jays do not have the 3rd best Pythag record in the AL (following the link you posted).  They have tied for the 3rd most Pythag wins.  The Rays, ChiSox, and Indians have all played fewer games to get the same # of Pythag wins however, so we actually are in a tie for the 6th best Pythag record in the AL.

Second, I'm not sure what you mean by work out, but a playoff spot is essentially out of reach already.  The Jays need to play at about a .620 pace the rest of the way to make the playoffs (95 wins).  This franchise has never had a team that good.  A .620 pace is 100-wins over a season and that's a lot better than this team is.  We haven't been mathematically eliminated and still have a minute chance of making the playoffs, but the odds are incredibly long.

Third - 7th best CF OPS in the AL is not bad.  Right now, Vernon Wells has the highest OPS+ of anyone on the team that's played here the full year (Rolen is tearing it up).  If it's not hard to replace that, then just about the entire line-up can, and should, also be upgraded.  While I agree with upgrading almost the entire line-up, it goes entirely against your theme that things are ok.

Finally, I take huge issue with your statement this is the best pitching staff in team history.  This staff doesn't hold a candle to the '85 team.

The '85 team had Alexander, Key, Clancy, and Stieb as primary starters.  Caudill, Lamp, Acker, Lavelle out of the bullpen.  The entire staff finished the season with a 3.31 ERA and 129 ERA+.  That compares very favorably to the 3.45 ERA and 118 ERA+ for this year's staff.

The 1987 and 1991 teams also probably had better pitching staffs than we do right now.

"Vernon Wells will be out for 6-8 weeks with a broken wrist, and Jeremy Accardo joins him on the DL with "a right forearm strain." Joe Inglett is back, again, along with.. Armando Benitez?"

As I recall, wasn't a condition of Benitez's deal that he be on the major league roster by May 15th or be allowed to seek employment elsewhere?  Coincidentally and somewhat ironically, Jeremy Accardo earned his first taste of late inning save situations filling in for Armando Benitez while both were with the Giants:

"The new role isn't exactly uncharted waters for the fireballer. Last season while with the Giants, Accardo stepped in to record three saves while closer Armando Benitez was out with an injury."

I wonder how much Accardo's forearm strain has to do with his apparent inability to throw his splitter this year? 

I wonder how much Accardo's forearm strain has to do with his apparent inability to throw his splitter this year?

I wonder how much Accardo's apparent inability to throw his splitter this year has to do with his forearm strain?

Rotoworld is harsh on J.P...(as are almost all sources outside Batters Box these days)

Does this include me?

The only chance the Jays have is if it will take only 88-90 wins to make the playoffs this year. Assuming the A's cool off and two of the Central teams don't play really great baseball the rest of the way, the wildcard is very likely to come from the East. It's certainly possible that all three East contenders (Yankeees.Jays and Rays) will  not exceed 92 wins.

The pressure is off, guys. ;) 

Now I(we) can sit back and just enjoy baseball, no matter who is playing.... and from time to time take a peek at the minor leagues.

Pythagorean records mean that the Yankees won the 1960 World Series. It's the last refuge of losing teams.

What it does give you is an indication of how luck has played into the team's record thusfar. It tends to even out over the course of the entire season, though there are exceptions (ie - the 1960 Yankees making the WS).  You can't look at it over a short period of time because there is so much luck in baseball.

They Jays are underperforming their expected record, meaning they are better than a 17 win team. The AL seems pretty weak so far, so they have a shot at making noise.

I almost wish someone will pick up Thorpe. The clock is ticking on him.

Benitez should be fine, as long as he's not brought in with runners on base.

Wells will be missed, but so was Rolen.

It's too early to call the season. Boston could fall back eventually and the other teams are only a couple of games ahead.

At this point, Lind will have to get hot again at Syracuse before they bring him back.

I disagree with just about everything you wrote in that comment

Good point on the Pythagorean - I didn't look at games played. By run differential they are 6th. I still contend that is within striking distance of the post-season, and they should not blow the team up. The pitching is for real, the offence is better than they have shown so far. My point about VW's injury not really mattering was that if the other 8 guys continue to be this bad, Vernon makes no difference (I should have spelled that out further). VW simply isn't a good enough player to carry the mail all by himself.

I don't think it will take 95 wins to get the wild card this year - there seems to be a lot more mediocrity this season, especially in the AL Central. As for the pitching staff, let's wait for the end of the season before we start seeing who can hold candles to whom. I contend they are the best, but am certainly open to arguments against that. Even if they are the 2nd best, that is still a massive advantage.

 

All it will take is one blowout with the Jays on the losing end and their pythag won't look so hot. Maybe tonight is the night.

"The ship is sinking.

Maybe?"

The ship was never afloat

Looks like the Indians will win all kinds of 'Pythagorean games' tonight.

Win/loss records aren't a matter of 'luck'. Often the Blue Jays have enough pitching to stay close, but not enough offense to win. Scoring some add-on runs in a blowout game against the back of the bullpen doesn't in any way negate not being able to score enough runs to win all those close games that you're in but behind and unable to score.

A bad offense isn't a matter of 'luck'. It's a matter of poor team design.

Scoring some add-on runs in a blowout game against the back of the bullpen doesn't in any way negate not being able to score enough runs to win all those close games that you're in but behind and unable to score.

What in the name of Bill James is going on here? Admitedly I haven't been on the site in a while, but since when did everyone here go all Buck Martinez*? Over the course of the season the team won't have a .306 winning pct in 1 run games, just like the Twins won't have a .667 pct.

But don't let me stop you from advocating more productive outs, aggression, grittiness, and chemistry, and less base-clogging, 'Moneyball' and non-clutchiness.

*I was going to use Joe Morgan, but that would have been a little too obvious

What in the name of Bill James is going on here? Admitedly I haven't been on the site in a while, but since when did everyone here go all Buck Martinez*?

Please don't paint everyone with the same brush.

Please don't paint everyone with the same brush.

But I only have one brush....

FWIW, I don't think that Hill and Rios have actually regressed this badly (84 and 93 points of OPS worse than last year, respectively), that Overbay will finish the year with a .368 SLG, that Eckstein and Stewart have fallen off a cliff, or that Zaun has turned into a singles hitter. This team simply isn't as bad as they've shown so far.

Agreed - the offense isn't as bad as it's shown. But maybe the pitching isn't as good as it's shown. Depends what you want to be - optimist, pessimist or realist.

A bad offense isn't a matter of 'luck'. It's a matter of poor team design.

+1

At the beginning of this year, the buzz was that the Jays were vastly improved. Eventually it became clear that the improvements amounted to the presumption that injuries would not occur this year like they did the year before. 

After all, in 2007 the Jays had an injury prone 3B, lost Wells for a substantial period, had questions at short, and their closer from the year before was on the DL... also they had a bunch of re-treads like Zambrano, Thompson, and Okha.

Now, they have an injury prone 3B, Wells is gone for a substantial period, Wells is gone for 6 to 8, there are currently having questions at short(ok short term), the closer from last year is on the DL....  and they have Mench, Wilkerson, Stewart and Benitez

Clearly an improvement

So does this big injury to Wells give JP a mulligan for this season? After all no team can expect to make the playoffs when you lose your franchise hitter right? Or is this injury just another example of how the Jays have been unlucky during the JP era?

So first we have Lind blocked by Stewart and now League is blocked by Benitez. Since the Jays are so close to making the playoffs this year it makes perfect sense to play the washed up veterans rather than find out what they have in the youngsters ....   Ah it’s a cruel world.

What in the name of Bill James is going on here? Admitedly I haven't been on the site in a while, but since when did everyone here go all Buck Martinez*? Over the course of the season the team won't have a .306 winning pct in 1 run games, just like the Twins won't have a .667 pct. But don't let me stop you from advocating more productive outs, aggression, grittiness, and chemistry, and less base-clogging, 'Moneyball' and non-clutchiness. *I was going to use Joe Morgan, but that would have been a little too obvious Well that certainly tells me! I sure do regret being compared to Joe Morgan and Buck Martinez instead of being 'up there' with someone who spends his evening trying to anonymously post insults on the internet. Joe and Buck being the dumbos that they obviously are, could never understand how a team eliminated its 'bad luck' by getting creamed one night in Cleveland. If Cleveland had scored an additional dozen, then the Blue Jays would be a really 'lucky' team. But obviously Buck and Joe and I who believe in whatever it is that is projected on us, could never appreciate insight like that.

After all no team can expect to make the playoffs when you lose your franchise hitter right? Or is this injury just another example of how the Jays have been unlucky during the JP era?

Well, it's pretty much true. They lost Rolen for a month, now they're going to lose Wells for at least a month. How good do you think the Indians would look if they lost Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez for a significant length of time?

This team has seen a lot of fluke injuries that no one can predict and very few teams can cover for. Zaun and Overbay both had broken bones last year. Roy Halladay has lost time to being hit by a ball and freaking appendicitis.

Perhaps the biggest reason for firing Ricciardi might be that he apparently has really bad karma.

In the month of May, starting pitchers have done the following against the Blue Jays:

10 GS | 70 IP |  16 ER | 14 BB | 44 K, 2.05 ERA

The worst a starter has done is the 4 runs in 6 innings that the Jays put up against. Andy Sonnanstine, and the 2 runs in 4.2 IP against John Danks.  The other 8 are quality starts.

Finally, I take huge issue with your statement this is the best pitching staff in team history.  This staff doesn't hold a candle to the '85 team.

In terms of pure talent, I think it's hard to top the '92 staff: Cone/Stieb/Morris/Key/Stottlemyre/Wells/Hentgen/Ward/Henke/Timlin (and the best starter on the team was Juan Guzman). 1985 was pretty special, though -- more guys had good years than in '92.

This franchise has been reminding me lately of the last years under Gord Ash. I think the final destination is pretty clear; it's only a question of how long it will take. Probably the end of 2009, but if the bottom really falls out of the team this season, it's possible we could see a broom sweep clean before then. Keep in mind, as always, that the controlling factor is the team's financial performance, and until that really suffers, no one who matters is going to walk the plank.

If I were John Gibbons, though, I'd be dusting off my CV right about now.

In terms of pure talent, I think it's hard to top the '92 staff:

True, but they were very poorly aligned in career terms - Morris and Stieb were no longer even close to what they had been in the past, Hentgen hadn't yet become a rotation starter, and Cone was only there for one month.

The only Jays staffs to lead the league in preventing runs were the 1985 and 1991 teams. Four men had key roles on both teams: Stieb and Key in the rotation, Henke and Acker in the pen. Acker was very good in 1985 and not very good in 1991. The other three were all very good in 1991 but even better in 1985.

Both teams had one of the guys who began the season in the rotation fizzle out entirely, and disappear from the team forever: Luis Leal in 1985, Denis Boucher in 1991. Both teams lost another starter to injury early on, but both got tremendous work from a replacement: Tom Filer for Clancy in 1985, Juan Guzman for Stieb in 1991. Both teams had to find an alternate closer: Henke took over in 1985  when Cox lost faith in Caudill, and Ward filled in for Henke in 1991 when a pulled hamstring took Large Tom out of the lineup for six weeks early on.

I think I'd take the 1985 staff, by a hair or two. No starter on the 1991 team was remotely close to being as valuable as Stieb was in 1985. And the only reliever who was close to being as effective as Henke was in 1985... was Henke in 1991.

Jordan, I think you just hit the nail on the head.

JP is acting a lot like Ash did near the end.  Vets being put on the team over kids, no patience for anyone, frustration on all parts - media, fans, and management.  Big contracts to anyone to keep them in town.

Luckily JP hasn't started trading kids for shiny new toys (aka veterans) so at least the farm won't go down the drain.  Yes, many feel JP's farm system is weak but even his biggest detractors admit his '07 draft looks strong and that there are a few high talent guys in the low minors - which actually fits the end of Ash's term (Rios in A, Cash & Gross in A+, League in rookie ball) plus some hot prospects near the top who seemed ignored (Hudson in AA/AAA, Freel in AAA for the 4th year, Wells for his 3rd year in AAA, Woodward being a yo-yo) and some surprises (Johnson & Chacin in AA) and guys we knew should be good (Phelps in AA, Werth in AA).  The majors had some kids who didn't really pan out (Lopez & Izturis who really weren't any better than Eckstein & McDonald, Lyon who was rushed, Halladay, Escobar who was treated horribly, Carpenter who was about to have his arm fall off). 

JP has a killer young staff (if it holds up), solid closer, and pen - just like Ash
JP has a couple of young guns available at or near the majors (Lind, Hill, Diaz) just like Ash (Lopez, Izturis, Phelps, Hudson)
JP has hot young talent in Snider unlike Ash - don't recall anyone being hyped like Snider
JP has lots of good looking talent in the low minors, just like Ash
JP is being torn apart as useless by all, just like Ash.

Note: for fun you will see one person who has posted here recently state their views on what to do after Ash was fired via the link above or here.  Other commentators here are found here, and here.  Tried finding my opinions on it but no luck - just my saying I hoped the Jays would break the bank and sign Bonds (the more things change...)  Nowhere did I see comments saying 'what a great farm system'.  Checking Baseball America's top 100 picks all time I see that in 2002 pre-season we had the following - #36 Josh Phelps; #70 Jayson Werth; #75 Gabe Gross; #81 Orlando Hudson; #98 Dustin McGowan.  This year the Jays just have #11 Travis Snider.   Definitely worse, although I do love having a top 11 talent (Rios in '04 was #6, Wells #12 in '01 and #4 in '00, Halladay #12 in 99, Green #6 in '95, Gonzo #8 in '95 (6 top 100's including 2 top 10's when Ash took over) .  Hrm.  From top 10 talent plus depth pre-Ash, to 1 in the top 60 under Ash, to 1 in top 100 (but #11) under JP.  Not a good direction.

Anyone who was around in '01 should remember that Rios was not viewed as anything more than a wasted pick at the time, Cash was not on the radar, Hudson & Freel looked good but would they get a shot, Phelps was a catcher (and hot) as was Werth. 

Y'know, if JP disappears after this year I think the next guy has pretty much what JP had.  A team that looks like it is always close but coming up around 500 year in/year out and is wasting tons of cash on parts that really aren't that good plus an albatross contract to a guy who the GM felt he had to keep.  However, now the seats are filling up rather than dropping and revenue streams are stronger than anytime since the pre-strike days.  IE: JP would leave it in better shape than he found it.

It's starting to look more and more like Nate Silver from Baseball Prospectus had it right by predicting the Jays to finish last in the AL East.  Meantime, Chris Karl weighs in on the Jays troubles in her Transaction Analysis. 

As for the game tonight, I stopped listening to my XM after Sizemore's homer.  I knew that's all the Tribe would need but to add 11 more runs was overkill.  Don't they have scouts?  They could've saved themselves some time and energy, really.  Oh well, spring training '09 begins early :)

 

 

At the risk of repeating myself (I said this in another thread): I wonder if there is a way to determine how much luck is involved in creating a successful farm system. The Jays' farm system is currently poor; could another GM make it better? I honestly don't know.

But one thing worth noting is that the failure of one top prospect to pan out can have a ripple effect that lasts for years. Imagine where the Jays would be right now if Josh Phelps had turned out to be the next Carlos Delgado (which, at one time, looked quite possible).

At this point, it might be time to let J.P. go. He's got to be suffering from shell shock now, and it'll undoubtedly affect his decisions. And the Jays' window of opportunity probably closed the moment Vernon Wells dived for that ball - it might be best for them to cash in their tradeable assets and reload for, say, 2010 or so. They could build a team around Halladay/Marcum/McGowan/Litsch, Rios and Hill (and presumably they'll have to keep Wells).

[I]t might be best for them to cash in their tradeable assets and reload for, say, 2010 or so. They could build a team around Halladay/Marcum/McGowan/Litsch, Rios and Hill (and presumably they'll have to keep Wells).

Um - those are their only tradeable assets. You aren't going to get far by trading Stairs, Eckstein, Zaun, Rolen and Overbay. Maybe Burnett and Ryan can get something, but seriously - "trade all their bad players for good players" isn't a real strategy. I agree with everything you wrote on the minor league system though.

#36 Josh Phelps, #70 Jayson Werth, #75 Gabe Gross - this is what you're all nostalgic for John? That tells you something about prospect rankings, doesn't it? Hudson and McGowan may have been a tad underevaluated don't you think?

Bringing in vets over kids is exactly what you do if you're in win-now mode. Now if you want to argue that the team wasn't  good enough at the start of the season, or now, to contend, that's a defensible, if arguable,  position. But you seem to think that playing kids is an end in itself.

Frank, I don't think you got where I was going there.  I'm not a 'play the prospects no matter what'.  Back in '01 we were in the midst of a long stretch (winter 1996-2001) where Ash said every year 'this is it'. 
1996 winter: Garcia and Merced and Plesac acquired for 6 kids including Craig Wilson
1997: Escobar's yo-yo'ing begins by being made the closer
1998: looks like Ash notices kids can be useful as vets dumped mid season and team goes on a run
1999: Dumped Woody Williams for Joey Hamilton, trades Clemens for Wells rather than getting top prospects
2000: Panic mode: trades for 'he who shall not be named' giving up Michael Young, gets Trachsel for Abernathy who looked good in '01 but didn't do much later
2001: Releases Batista in the season between his two all-star appearances while signing Alex Gonzalez for 4 years $20 million and Delgado for 4 years $68 million

Batista may not have been much, but appeared solid at SS and sure hit a lot better (around a 100 OPS+) than Gonzo (80 or under all but one full season here).  Batista had a 870 range factor (best stat I can find for 1999) vs Gonzo in '98 at 850, 844 in brief time in 99 and 826 in 2000.  Sure doesn't scream 'pay millions to Gonzo and dump Batista'. 

Both JP and Ash mixed in kids now and then but both, once feeling their jobs were on the line, started mixing in old guys and overpaid 'our guys' to try to save it. 

Ash had a shot with Wells, Phelps, and Hudson who could've been mixed in during 2001 easily (Simmons [36 OPS+], Castillo [34 OPS+], and Homer Bush [coming off a 33 OPS+ season] respectively).  He could've got a real manager instead of PR choice Buck Martinez.  He could've insisted on Escobar being left in the rotation while cutting his losses on Hamilton (something I think JP would've done given the Thomas and other situations).  Instead he went for vets and shuffling the chairs, much like we're seeing from JP now.

JP is a step ahead of Ash, at least the injured guy he traded for played a bit and he never signed a manager who had a fake resume, but the end game is upon him if he isn't careful now.  Plan for the future, mix in kids wherever you can, don't do any panic trades that involve more than cash or vets.  If he can do that then 2008 won't look as ugly in retrospect as 2001 does.

Back in '01 we were in the midst of a long stretch (winter 1996-2001) where Ash said every year 'this is it'.

Not to defend Ash here, but he had no choice but to try to win every year, as unlikely a possibility as that was: Interbrew were trying to sell the team, and a total rebuild would have lowered the resale value.

I think some guys are short selling the set up that JP has here. While I am not his biggest fan, and disagreed with many of his decisions, we are in a very good position to be competing next year, and really, for a lot of years. He has one of the best young pitching staffs in the game, in terms of talent, depth and long term control. The only thing that he has failed to address, which is a big thing, is hitting against right handed pitching. It is a matter of great importance, that he has continually failed to address. However, one or two free agent signings, and the Jays could address the matter.

Also, as had been mentioned in previous threads, the team will have a fair bit of coin to drop this off season.

The Rays now have everyone more or less healthy.  They're fielding a lineup against RHP of Iwamura, Crawford, Upton, Pena, Longoria, Floyd (DHing), Navarro, Gross and Bartlett.  That's a fine group, offensively and defensively. They've got Hinske and Gomes on the bench.    They need a backup middle infielder, and some support at the back end of the bullpen, but otherwise they are ready to compete. 

"While I am not his biggest fan, and disagreed with many of his decisions, we are in a very good position to be competing next year, and really, for a lot of years."

I don't see how you came up with this analysis. The Jays are not going to compete this year and are not in position to improve next year either with this roster.

"The only thing that he has failed to address, which is a big thing, is hitting against right handed pitching. It is a matter of great importance, that he has continually failed to address. However, one or two free agent signings, and the Jays could address the matter."

Like Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley? The Jays are scoring 3.8 runs per game this year. That's second worst only to K.C. in the league. This is not something can be fixed easily. It's not a strong lineup with a couple of holes, it's just a weak lineup even with Wells and Rolen healthy and is not going to be bolstered by, what is largely considered a weak upper system.

I don't see how you came up with this analysis. The Jays are not going to compete this year and are not in position to improve next year either with this roster.

I agree that we are not looking good this year, and I agree that this roster is not takng us to the promised land. What I said was "we are in a very good position to be competing next year, and really, for a lot of years". My analysis was such: We have an enviable amount of pitching. Reasonable people can disagree, but I think a really good pitching staff is more difficult to assemble than a really good offense. The Jays rotation, and bullpen, seems to be set up for the next handful of years.

Like Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley? The Jays are scoring 3.8 runs per game this year. That's second worst only to K.C. in the league. This is not something can be fixed easily. It's not a strong lineup with a couple of holes, it's just a weak lineup even with Wells and Rolen healthy and is not going to be bolstered by, what is largely considered a weak upper system.

Personally, I think offense is something that is fixed easily... Easily, if you have money or prospects to burn. It has been noted in previous threads that there is potentially a significant amount of money coming off the books this off season. If those resources are directed appropriately, there is no reason why the Jays shouldn't be in a position to compete.

IMO the primary factor that will prevent this team from winning more ball games, is that they currently boast a .382 SLG% vs RHP, good for 10th in the AL and 21st in the Majors. And further, it has been a major weakness of this club for 3 of the last 4 years:

2007 11th in the AL
2006 3rd in the AL
2005  11th in the AL
2004 13th in the AL

If JP, or whomever is the GM, can address this deficiency, the Blue Jays should be competitive.

     Anyone who condemns the Jays lineup -- without admitting that the Jays also have one of the best pitching staffs in the league -- is being a little unfair to Ricciardi and Gibbons.  If any of us is going to moan and groan about the terrible offensive production of this team, it's only fair to praise equally the starters and the bullpen.  The Jays have one of the worst offensive records in the league, but they also have one of the best pitching records in the league.  On balance, that makes the Jays an average team.  And at this stage of the season, any average team can quickly become competitive if a few hitters get hot.   Just a few days ago, the Jays were within one game of 2nd place in their division.  At that point, I didn't hear anyone say that the season was a bust.   I guess this is the normal psychology of most baseball fans:  the highs are very high and the lows are very low.  I can hear the cries of agony whenever this team loses a few games in a row.  This is to be completely expected of sports fans who live and die by their hometown team.  But is it a rational assessment of a team's performance, or is it emotion?   Frankly, when so many Bauxites proclaim their love of sabermetrics, I would expect a bit less emotion and a bit more rational assessment.

The best estimate I have seen projects the Blue Jays to have 20 Million this off season.

I am unsure who might be available.

The doubleheader tomorrow will give the Jays a problem with who to start on Friday vs Philadelphia.  Either one of tomorrow's starters (Burnett or Marcum) will have to go on short rest, say if they get pulled early a la McGowan, or David Purcey will get to make another start.  Purcey pitched yesterday which would line him up with an extra days rest for Friday.

"Personally, I think offense is something that is fixed easily... Easily, if you have money or prospects to burn."

It certainly is not easy to fix-if it were, why would anyone not have a great lineup all the time? Their lineup is mediocre all the way through. Even say, adding Adam Dunn next year would improve their offense, but it would still be weak especially considering that the bulk of their lineup will be over 30 and likely to decline. It's not as simple as boosting SLG versus RHP, it's much deeper than that. They, as a whole, cannot hit. Perhaps the worst part of it is looking at the lineup, I don't see anyone who is underperforming and likely to improve over the rest of the year the way, say, Jeter and Cano are in NY. I really like the top-3 of Halladay, McGowen, and Marcum, but it's not enough to compete.

"The best estimate I have seen projects the Blue Jays to have 20 Million this off season.

I am unsure who might be available."

Well, we have to see what the Jays will need. I'm going to assume Zaun, Barajas, Eckstein, Stewart and Burnett are gone. That means they have to fill 2 C spots, a potential starting SS (unless we go the Jonny Mac route again), a 4th OF, and an SP. I'm fairly optimisitc Robinson Diaz can at least be the backup C, maybe the starter, I'm not sure.

FA Catchers: Barajas, Barrett, Estrada, Kendall (option), Lo Duca, Pudge, David Ross, Tek and Zaun

Nothing too inspiring there, perhaps the Jays may just resign Zaun to split time with Diaz (estimated combined cost, $3 mil.)

FA SS: Cabrera, Eckstein, Everett, Furcal, Guzman, Izturis, Lopez, Renteria ($11 mil option), Uribe, Vizquel ($5.2 club option).

Cabrera will be 34, a 3 year deal wouldnt be terrible I guess. I can dream of Furcal, but that would necessitate breaking of the bank (he'll be 31).

FA SP: Check MLBTR, too many to type out.

I figure they need a #3 tops, with FA starter, Marcum and McGowan all combining to be servicable 2-4 It will still cost over $10 mil probably. Some names that stand out to me are Derek Lowe and Randy Wolf. Or, if they want another maddening talented yet injured starter, they can cheap the rest of the team and go for Sheets.

Looking at this years scrap heap OF market I'm not worried that it will be too diffiicult to replace Stew.

What do you guys think we should do?

I think spending any of the $ on pitching would be a mistake. It's obvious this team needs offense, not pitching. Right now there are SP options at the Cuse that make me believe the team can handle the departure of Burnett without breaking the bank to replace him. I'm sure we will see plenty of Purcey this year (continuing Friday night) to know if he can be penciled in for 2009.

I wouldn't want to see money spent on pitching either.  The bullpen is in great shape both now and in the future.  Halladay, McGowan and Marcum form an above average top of the rotation, and with the way Cecil and Purcey have been pitching I'm convinced that one of them will be able to step in ahead of Litsch.

I have a feeling Diaz will be up by the all-star break, especially if Barajas continues to struggle with the bat.  The Jays are convinced that Diaz can be a starting catcher, so I wouldn't break the bank looking for catching help.

I'm still convinced that Lind will be a good leftfielder, so unless he tanks in a prolonged second look, I'd only spend on a 4th outfielder, and they can be found pretty easily.

A platoon DH will suffice, so the Jays could probably re-sign Mench or find another lefty-killing platoon partner for Stairs.  If Stairs starts to decline rapidly, Snider is waiting.  No money on a DH.

That leaves SS, and a lot of money available to FINALLY find an above average starter for that position.  The Jays may have to over-spend to get Furcal, but they should make every effort in my opinion.  Signing Furcal and filling the other small holes would probably consume most, if not all, of the available budget.

That's what I'd do, since you asked.  It's impossible to tell what the situation will be though, especially if Burnett, Eckstein, or others are traded for near ML ready prospects mid-season.  But a Furcal-Rios-Wells-Stairs/Mench-Rolen-Overbay-Hill-Lind-Diaz lineup should be decent and well balanced.  The team would be very good defensively, too.  Hopefully Snider shows up early-season ready to start his big power career.

 

The problem with Furcal is that he is putting up a .366/.448/.597, a far cry from his .287/.352/.412 career line. He will obviously regress, but to the point where he isn't commanding at least 5/75 on the open market? I doubt it. Orlando Cabrera may be the cheaper, more sensible option because he won't require the same sort of long term commitment. Barring a trade it has to be one of those 2 as next year's SS if this team intends on competing, because the next best FA SS is Christian Guzman. Well, it would actually be David Eckstein, but you get my point.

Primer linked a Richard Griffen article that suggests Stewart is not happy with his playing time and might be done with the Jays.

I'd be fine with that actually, but I'd hope it was because JP figured out a way to get Dunn or Bay (or Bonds) for LF, Wilkerson to 4th OF, and Mensch to platoon DH.

Is Kevin Mench a mensch?  Cecil Fielder wasn't a fielder...

It's fun to speculate, but the fact remains that a lot of things will change before the off-season.  It sounded like the Dodgers wanted to extend Furcal, but now he's hurt and Hu is scuffling.  We'll see what Burnett, Eckstein and Zaun/Barajas bring in at the deadline (assuming the Jays are out of it or Purcey and Cecil are still pitching well).  If the Jays totally bomb, there might even be a complete overhaul.

Maybe I'm crazy but I would spend part of that 20 million on Draft Day.  Sure looks right now that is how Boston and the Yankees are keeping their dominance going.  Maybe it's harder to get insurance on a younger kid but the rewards could be well worth it!

The main issue with retooling is the nightmare lack of prospects in AAA/AA who we could call up to replace the hitters (pitching appears OK with Purcey/Cecil on the edge of the majors plus the 3 kids already in the rotation and the deep bullpen).

CA: Diaz/Thigpen - neither hitting well, Diaz now DL'd, Jeroloman in AA is at 238/362/345 age 23 and won't see the majors until '09 at the earliest
1B: Chip Cannon is looking better with his 380 OBP but his 386 Slg just won't do it and at 26 his prospect days are just about over
2B: Scott Campbell at AA is at 343/393/472, is 23 had a 390+ OBP at A- and A the past two years, Slg climbing each year, can play 3B but has had just one game at SS in 3 seasons - unless he can play SS though won't see the majors as 3B and 2B are set in stone for '08-'10
3B: Santos is done, Hatch in AA has a 666 OPS
SS: Pedro Lopez shows hope, and is getting time at SS (was a 2B but Hill isn't going anywhere) but unless a high level fielder just won't hit enough to be an upgrade at SS; AA has Chris Gutierrez hitting 263/377/333 and that Slg% is about what he has done in the past 3 seasons so not a lot there either
OF: Lind of course we all know.  Aaron Mathews in AA is at 290/352/374 but at 26 isn't really a prospect.  The others in AA have OBP's under 340 and Slg under 500 so they aren't about to skip a level and help this year.

Not a lot of hitters being held back.  Lind would be nice in LF but he has had nightmares in the majors so far with an 84 OPS+ over 396 PA's thus his prospect status is wearing thin.  His AAA numbers right now are counting largely on a high batting average - 342-398-532 - and at this point I have to agree with the majority of experts who say he'll never be more than an average ML LF'er.  Campbell is interesting but unless he learns SS or Hill moves to SS he won't get a shot.  Diaz will probably get another shot later this year but is no saviour with his minor league career being a 305-340-389 one with his only 800+ OPS season being his second year in rookie league ball.  Cannon shows hope but given his nightmares getting past AA and his age I don't see much in his future either.

Thus for '08-'10 what you see is what you get unless someone like Snider charges through the system and forces the issue.  Justin Jackson (19 in low-A at SS) has the best shot imo as he plays the biggest hole on the ML team right now and his hitting well 295-396-453 - I suspect he'll get time in high A later this summer if he keeps it up, AA-AAA next year and a shot at the majors for 2010 although the more likely situation is A+ in '09, AA in '10, AAA in '11 and majors in '12.  Kevin Aherns is also in A+ at 19 and plays 3B so he'll probably go to A+ next year, AA in late '09/early '10, AAA for late '10 with a shot at the majors for '11 when Rolen leaves.

Y'know, if things go 'best case' we will have a nice team by 2011 when the current crop of vets goes away.  Wells/Rios/Snider in the OF, Hill/Aherns/Jackson in the infield, catcher would be Diaz and vets, 1B/DH would probably be free agents off the scrapheap ala Stairs.  Mixed with a killer rotation of Halladay/McGowan/Marcum/Litsch/Purcey/Cecil/etc. and a deep pen it could be fun for JP's successor (assuming JP isn't still here of course).

FYI Timbuck2 and all others who talk about insurance... the Jays said publicly a few years ago that they stopped getting insurance on players due to the high cost.  That the risk/reward of insurance vs just living with it made it more economical to just live with it if guys got hurt.  Which, as a general rule, is true for all insurance otherwise insurance companies would go broke.

Thus if Wells got a career ending injury the Jays would just be out the bucks they signed him for and would not have $20 million extra in the bank for signing guys.

John, I doubt Justin Jackson gets a promotion to Dunedin this year.  Travis Snider didn't last year.  I think the Jays prefer to let these teenagers mature in settled situations before promoting them more aggressively later, if their bat commands it.  I wouldn't rule out an appearance by one of the teenagers in the AFL, if they show the bat for it.

 

Here is Robinson Diaz's line. He's 24.  He might hit .285 in the majors, but with very little power, very few walks and many GIDPs.  He'll have to be a fine defender to carry that. 

Here is Robinson Diaz's line. He's 24.  He might hit .285 in the majors, but with very little power, very few walks and many GIDPs.  He'll have to be a fine defender to carry that.

I can see what you're saying, but it depends on what level of contribution you're looking for.  To be a plus starter, he'll need solid defense to carry that type of offense.  To be a plus back-up and worth the ~250 ABs that come with that position, that would be a fine performance.

For reference, last year all catchers in the majors put up a line of .256/.318/.394.  That's the lowest in each stat across all positions in the majors.

Part of the reason the C lines are going to be low is because back-ups play so much more than any other position, but even still, if Diaz can put up .305/.340/.389, that should be good enough to be one of the better back-ups in the majors or even be a lower-tier starter C.  By the way - the line is his career minor league #s, which are in-line with this year's AAA OPS of .729.

I agree, CJF.  Diaz might very well make a solid RH half of a platoon, or a backup.  His chances are roughly the same as Jeroloman's. 

So Diaz is a young Rod Barajas?

No.  Diaz' skill set is completely different than Barajas'.  He'll hit for a better average, but with less power and fewer walks. His upside is Manny Sanguillen, which would be pretty damn good.

Mike, I guess we can expect a "Robinson's Ribs" in about 2040, maybe at the Jays new stadium at Downsview Airport in North York? :)

Is Kevin Mench a mensch?  Cecil Fielder wasn't a fielder...

In general, I think you'll find the answer is "no" for this sort of thing, although in this case, yes, I do believe Mr. Mench is a Mensch..

Other Jays for whom the answer is no:
Devon White
Bud Black
George Bell (well, maybe?)
"Buck" Martinez
Jim Gott (Gott = God in german)
Jim Acker (Acker = acre/field in german)
Mark Eichhorn (squirrel in german - never realized the Jays had so many fellow Germans..)
Dennis Lamp
John Mayberry
Justin Speier (speier is some kind of water storage basin in german)
and many, many others..

Not to mention the "sons":
Reed Johnson
Brad Wilkerson
etc..