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It used to be a big deal.

A pitcher with 3,000 career strikeouts? That was territory only breached by the great Big Train himself, Walter Johnson, with a mind-boggling total of more than 3,500. Jim Bunning, at 2,855, was a distant second. Then Bob Gibson joined the 3000K "club" (membership at the time: 2) and Steve Carlton cracked 4,000 and Nolan Ryan, of course, lapped the field at 5,714, more than double Bunning's total!

As of last night, there are now 16 men to have reached that career milestone, including five who are active -- Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez and now, John Smoltz. The other names on the list -- Perry, Blyleven, Seaver, Sutton, Jenkins, Niekro -- they're all late-20th-century guys, so sure, you can make the argument that they are simply beneficiaries of pitching the Bobby Bonds/Adam Dunn/Jim Thome/Ryan Howard/Rob Deer free-swinging era.

But if that's the case, the questions remains ... and yes, this gets asked every time a Maddux or a Smoltz cracks the barrier -- who, if anyone, is next to 3000 strikeouts?

The next active hurlers on the current career total list are Mike Mussina (2,670) and Tom Glavine (2,576); Mussina is 39 and Glavine is 42, so neither seems terribly likely to get there. David Wells and Jamie Moyer are the next two active names -- and Boomer, not so much;  with both now 45 and 800 or 900 short, we can count them out too, right?

Tom Gordon, Kenny Rogers and Andy Pettitte are all shy of 2,000 career punchouts, so ... is our next legitimate possibility really Javier Vazquez, who at age 31 has 1,842 strikeouts? Really?? The highest-ranking active player under 30 is, no surprise, Johan Santana, who has 1,480 -- so he's not even halfway there! Next among the under-30 crowd is Jake Peavy, who at age 27, is currently 336th on the career list, with a relatively modest 1,119. Only two other under-30s, Ben Sheets and Carlos Zambrano, have even cleared the 1,000 mark at this point.

Wondering about Roy Halladay? He's 31 and has 1,102, which is good for 347th on the list.

So Bauxites ... 3000 strikeouts? Who gets there? Does it matter any more?

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#183350) #
Ryan's record is looking pretty safe, huh? Almost as safe as some of Cy Young's career marks, unless something changes drastically in how the very game is played.

At this moment, it looks like the best candidates down the road may be the really young guys who haven't yet even made it to 1000 Ks. Hamels and Kazmir, if their arms don't fall off. Jeremy Bonderman, if he takes a slight step forward. Mark Prior, if he pulls a Jim Palmer, and makes it back from oblivion.

The figures for the league leader in strikeouts is nowhere near being historically low. The last time anyone led the league with fewer than 200 Ks (in a full season) was in 1980. This used to happen all the time - it was only the truly exceptional pitcher who could be counted on to fan that many batters in a season. From 1920 , when Walter Johnson and Pete Alexander's fastballs began to lose their zing, through 1958, there were only a handful of pitchers who had even two seasons with 200 Ks:  Dazzy Vance, Bob Feller, Hal Newhouser, and Herb Score (managing the feat once were Johnny Vandermeer, Bobo Newsom, Van Mungo, Lefty Grove, and Bob Turley). That's not very many pitchers or seasons for a 40 year period.

Then Sam Jones had his second 200 K season in 1959, Jim Bunning had his a year , and then the Great Age of the Power Pitcher was upon us. The 200 K seasons fell like rain.

So for almost 50 years now, there have always been pitchers around striking out more than 200 batters in a season. Which of course is why everyone on the all-time leaderboard began their career in that period, except the mighty Big Train.

Magpie - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#183351) #
Danny Haren is another young guy who could get there. If he stays healthy for another fifteen years or so... (the eternal question!)
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#183352) #

My point -- if this thread had been on an Internet site 30 years ago (um, well, nobody would have been able to read it), fans would have been going nuts over this feat. Here we are in 2008, and there are zero posts in two hours and the "feat" didn't even bear mention in Dave Rutt's TDIB.

3000K trivia ...
One player was the victim of two different pitchers' 3000th strikeout. Name this former NL multiple-Gold-Glove-winning outfielder.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#183353) #
Of course ...while I'm writing that, Magpie posts twice!
AWeb - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#183354) #
I think 3000 K's matter, but then I like the big counting numbers (for fun, not player value appraisement). It's a rare group, and the lack of slam dunk entrants in the near future (unlike, say, 500 HR lately) makes it seem all the more impressive. Yes, K's have become easier to get on a league level, but with modern staff usage, you really have to strike out a lot of guys for a long time to have a decent shot (I'm thinking a good long career with 3500 IP, striking out 7.5/9 or more).

My guess: I think Javier Vasquez will make it next. He manages to stay healthy, gets a lot of innings and strikeouts (8/9IP). He could make even if he doesn't continue to pitch at an incredibly high level...he might "only" need 6 more years, counting this one. If he did make it, barring him reaching another level, Vasquez would likely be the least distinguished member of the 3000 K club, but that's OK. Not every member of the 3000 hit club is exactly in the upper pantheon of players, and it would take 6 more good years. After that, people would look at Vasquez a little differently (200+ wins, for one).
Magpie - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#183357) #
I was actually planning to make pitcher's strikeouts the sixth entry in my Chasing the Big Numbers series. I must have forgotten. I just looked at the spreadsheet, and there's Smoltz with 2567 Ks. I think I need to update this, and maybe even write the thing.

At the time, the active pitchers whose chances I was going to consider were: Mussina, Colon, Hudson, Willis, Beckett, Carpenter, Mulder, Oswalt, Prior, Wood, Peavy, Sabathia, Halladay, Santana, Bonderman, Zito, Buehrle, Glavine, and Pettite. I might want to revise my list of candidates. Don't think much of Chris Carpenter's chances now. Or Kerry Wood's. Or Barry Zito's.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#183359) #
Big Felix just turned 22 and has 449 strikeouts.  If he's basically healthy, he will almost surely make it.  That is still a big if; the odds are probably marginally against him.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#183360) #
I think the big killer is the Ryan record and having two other guys crack 4000 recently (Clemens & Johnson) to go along with a 4th guy getting over 4000 awhile ago (Carlton).

I remember back in 1985 (yes, I'm old) when Pete Rose set the hits record.  Right around the same time we had Rod Carew reach 3000 hits.  The media coverage of Carew's feat was minimal and I remember pretty much ignoring it as, after all, who cares about 3000 when someone else is over 4000 and still playing?

We also have two pitchers up at 350 wins who are active (more or less) and another over 300 with a 4th near it (Johnson is 16 away).  The more amazing feats by a group the less amazing each becomes.  So we're all watching for Maddux and Clemens, with an eye on Glavine and Johnson thus someone else getting 3000 K's just doesn't mean as much.

Another way to look at it is like looking at 500 home runs.  That was a major feat back in the 80's and 90's but now it is extremely ho-hum.  Largely due to Bonds being over 700, Sosa over 600, Griffey about to crack 600, A-Rod over 500 before his age 32 season, etc.  Frank Thomas getting 500 last year was a 'so what' moment unless you were a Thomas fan much like 400 used to be.  K's are the same thing.  Got 3000?  That's nice.  Call me when you get close to 4000.

John Northey - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#183361) #
For fans of Big Felix remember Dwight Gooden.  Before turning 21 he had 544 K's.  744 by age 22.  He played until he was 35 (which surprised me that he lasted that long) and had 2293 K's to go with his 194 wins (41 by 21, 58 by 22, 100 before he was 25, in double digits just once after age 28).

Pitchers are scary things.  They can go from best to nothing in a minute.

Magpie - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#183362) #
Approaches to hitting have changed, to say the least. Everybody now holds the bat down at the end and swings as hard as they can. Even John McDonald hits like that. Strikeouts have increased so much that pitchers don't need to work 350 innings to whiff 200 guys.

Back in the day (not my day, a much more distant day), the batter attempted to make contact. You could lead the league in Ks while striking out 5.5 guys per 9 innings. Happened all the time. The greatest power pitchers in the game were striking out barely 4 batters per 9 innings. Today, we'd think they're on the verge of falling out of the league.

Actually, it makes me gasp in awe at the number of hitters people like Johnson and Mathewson struck out in their best seasons. None of those batters were swinging for the fences - they were all just trying to meet the pitch and put it in play. They still couldn't do it.



ChicagoJaysFan - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#183363) #
You've also got Kazmir at as a recent 24-year old who has 617 K so far.  His rate was about 1.5 times Felix last year (10.4 versus 7.8).  Felix has a head start, but Kazmir in 3 seasons is already over 20% of the way there.
Rob - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#183369) #
My take on the round numbers is they're like Valentine's Day: a good excuse to take the time and recognize someone, but a couple weeks later you kinda forget about it.

Just out of curiosity, Favorite Toy chances at 3000 K for names mentioned so far. This doesn't include 2008 results nor the entire long list of pitchers Magpie felt like throwing out there.

Vazquez with two Zs: 51.2%
Santana: 45.8%
Peavy: 45.4%
Zambrano: 28.5%
Mussina: 25.1%
Bonderman: 16.1%
Beckett: 14.8%
Kazmir: 13.8%
King Felix: 12.6% (Doc Gooden through age 21 had a 59.5% chance)
Haren: 10.7%
Willis: 8.6%
Oswalt: 7.9%
Zito: 2.9%
Hudson, Colon, Hamels, Halladay, Sheets, Glavine: all at zero. Not exactly zero, of course--the O-Dog has a 0% chance at 3,000 strikeouts; Tim Hudson is probably more likely to do it.

Okay, that was more than "some."

No point putting Prior's current numbers through this, though he blows pre-oblivion Palmer out of the water. If we pretend it's November 2003, Prior's at 20.5%, so there's hope. There's also reality, but there's still hope.

I'd thank you all to not point out that my view of Valentine's Day apparently includes John Smoltz.
ChicagoJaysFan - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#183371) #
Rob, I know you just did it quick and easy, but Favorite Toy doesn't work well for players who haven't had three full seasons as the formula for future average season is a weighted average of last year, the year before, and the year before that (1/2 to last year, 1/3 to the year before and 1/6 to the year before that).

So for Hamels and Felix, the likelihoods are understated.

If you add a the 3rd year complete year for Hamels and Felix as being equivalent to what they did 2 years ago (without altering the total), it bumps up the odds pretty significantly.  Using this Hamels becomes 7.1% and Felix becomes 19.3%.  You could probably do a weighted average among the first two years to determine the 3rd, but I didn't think of that until now and don't want to go through the exercise.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#183376) #
Vazquez is a strange case, vulnerable to the HR and with an unimpressive opposition BABIP but with excellent K/W numbers. It all has added up to a good but not great pitcher so far.

He has been remarkably durable, and given his high K rate, you would probably venture that his best years are ahead of him.
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#183402) #
3000K trivia ...
One player was the victim of two different pitchers' 3000th strikeout. Name this former NL multiple-Gold-Glove-winning outfielder.

Anybody? Anybody? bueller? Bueller?

Hints: the pitchers were Bob Gibson and Nolan Ryan; the player's name is something you yell when jumping out of an airplane. (And no, nobody named "Ohcrapppppppppp!" has ever won a Gold Glove.)
Geoff - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#183403) #
Who still yells 'Geronimo' when leaping? it's been outlawed since WWII.
HollywoodHartman - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#183404) #
GERRRRRROOOONNNNNIIIIIMMMMMOOOOOOO, Cesar.
Riding the Smoltz 3000 | 17 comments | Create New Account
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