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We're going to Disney World!


Yep. It's a three game set with the 8-11 Rays on the outskirts of Orlando.

The Rays are 3-0 in the land of the mouse ears. They seem to enjoy this proud annual tradition, which is now in its second year. Last year, they hung a three-game sweep on the Rangers, including two extra-inning victories. They are looking to market themselves in central Florida to expand the ol' fan base. "It's a three-day infomercial. That's what it really is."

The stadium there is called Champion Stadium, formerly Cracker Jack Stadium and The Ballpark at Disney's Wide World of Sports. This one time 10 years ago, I saw a Braves spring training game there. It's very Disney. Unfortunately, the concession stand ran out of hot dogs in the fourth inning, which wasn't very Disney. Or maybe it was. I'm bad at those distinctions. My guess is it'll play as a very neutral park. It's symmetrical. Here are its dimensions:

Left 335
Left center 385
Center 400
Right center 385
Right 335

The capacity is 9500, including the vast swaths of lawn in left field where people bring towels to sit on and watch the game. Last year, the attendance figures for the three games were 8443, 8839 and 9635.

Tonight's starter is James Shields, who signed the Aaron Hill contract this offseason before it was called that. Shields throws in the low 90s and has a unique, powerful changeup that he throws 32.2% of the time according to Fangraphs. He is Aaron Rowand's cousin. As a cutter/changeup guy, he has a 22-point career OPS split.

Tomorrow, it's righty Jason Hammel, who's keeping the 5th starter's spot warm. He's put up AAAA pitcher numbers the last two years. He's your typical four pitch pitcher. He has a big curveball, but according to Fangraphs, he has been throwing his slider more and more over the past two years. Hammel shares his name with the drummer from Mates of State. Not quite Andre Ethier, but you take what you can get. Joe Inglett is 3-4 off Hammel with a double, a triple and a walk.

Thursday, it's the one-of-a-kind Andy Sonnanstine, fresh off a complete-game three-hit shutout of the White Sox. Sonnanstine is one of my favorite players in the league. He's a pretty generic speed-changing strike thrower, with one big exception: he throws out of a bunch of different arm slots, and it's completely intentional. Here's a plot of Shields' release points; here's Hammel; and here's Sonnanstine. One thing I'd like to do at some point is try to figure out if there are any patterns to his choice of arm slot. We'll see him again soon enough. Here's the full Josh Kalk pitch-fx card for Sonnanstine.

Evan Longoria is in the house. For good. For some reason he's 0-10 against lefties, with three walks.

The A's put Dan Johnson on waivers, so the Rays claimed him, and here he is. Johnson has historically been a favorite whipping boy of the BABIP gods. He went down with a "bone infection near the sinus area" which was supposed to sideline him for six to nine months. However, using home remedies, he managed to overcome the illness in a mere two weeks.

Lefty-hitting outfield defense specialist Nathan Haynes, formerly of the Angels, is in the house. He's actually starting tonight. He has four stolen bases in five tries. Haynes is 28; he was drafted in the first round in 1997. Here are his recent minor-league stats.

New shortstop Jason Bartlett is off to a rough start. He's been fighting a shoulder injury, which has contributed to his making four errors in his last seven starts.

Eric Hinske and Jonny Gomes are off to pretty good starts as the DH team. Like Magpie said.

Switch-hitting catcher Dioner Navarro, who had been on the 15-day DL with finger trouble, is back in the house. Shawn Riggans, who hit competently as the starter in his absence, returns to the bench, and Mike DiFelice has been designated.

Poor Troy Percival can't find any save situations. He's off to a very good start, though.

Al Reyes is on the 15-day DL with mild shoulder problems.

And Jeff Niemann was sent down, as the Rays expect Matt Garza to make his triumphant return to their rotation on Friday.

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100. These are 2008 stats, except where noted.


Advance Scout: Rays, April 22-24 | 37 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#183288) #
Rios sitting tonight... I'm preplexed as to why he needs a night off a week.
Dez - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#183291) #
Wells sitting on Monday, and now Rios today? What's with Gibbons' infatuation with Joe Inglett? With the lineup as weak as it is, I can't see why you'd rest your best hitter.
scottt - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#183292) #
I figured Wells got the rest because he got cold, going 5 for 24 over the last week.

Not so sure now. Rios has being hitting fine of late. Maybe it's because he hasn't  had success against Shields, but that hold for the whole lineup except Hill.

paulf - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#183294) #
Hands up everyone who predicted that Jesse Litsch would have a better K% than James Shields three times through the rotation (ok, four for Shields).
Thomas - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#183295) #
Wells sitting on Monday, and now Rios today?

Not sure I understand it, either. Shannon Stewart as the number 6 hitter isn't a lineup that excites me.

timpinder - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#183296) #

Gibbons is sitting Rios because in the very small sample size of 9 at-bats he only has 1 hit?  Atta-boy Gibby, that should help spark the offense!  I often defend Ricciardi, but I think that Gibbons is a terrible manager. 

Adam Lind went 2 for 4 today with a walk, and is now hitting .379 / .431 / .621.   Get him up now.

I feel so helpless.

scottt - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#183297) #
Shannon Stewart as the number 6 hitter isn't a lineup that excites me.

No doubt trying to split the left bats.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#183300) #
Not satisfied with Dan Johnson, the Rays acquired Gabe Gross today.  He'll nicely address their right-field problem. They mean business.

Scott Rolen is back at third tonight for Dunedin, and made an error early.  Not to worry.

scottt - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#183301) #
Hinske's gunning for the cycle.
Sherrystar - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#183302) #
Looks like another tough night for the Jays. This line-up reflects perfectly in the minor league stadium they're playing in. Also can't understand why Rios is not playing? Joe Inglett in the outfield? Are you kidding me? But look on the bright side... if this continues, we'll have lots to discuss about our new manager and G.M. this winter.
grjas - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#183303) #
Looks like another tough night for the Jays.

Ugh. Glad I only watched one inning. Well at least they didn't leave too many on base tonight- not enough hits to do that! So much for the Thomas episode lighting a fire.

This season is beginning to sound like 2007 The Return. It's not just the mediocre record, it's the excrutiatingly BORING play by the offence. Come on guys the season is still young. Give us some excitement ON the field.
timpinder - Tuesday, April 22 2008 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#183304) #

I think it's Wells' and Hill's turn to have the night off tomorrow, so Rios should be back in the lineup with hopefully Lind getting the start in left field.  Then again, Rios was on-deck in the ninth swinging the bat, so he may need another day off. 

subculture - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 02:08 AM EDT (#183305) #

I'm glad I didn't watch the game then.... I was already depressed at the crappy, unimaginative last play that the Raptors ran and lost in Orlando tonight... had the Jays game PVR'd but couldn't stand another good guys loss tonight.

Next year, we might be looking at a new Raptors coach, as well as Jays coach... who will likely share headlines with the new Leafs coach, and GM.  Hmmm, of all 3 major sports coaches and GMs in Toronto, it's very likely only Colangelo will still be here... and I kinda don't mind at all.

brent - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 02:54 AM EDT (#183307) #

game 21- WPA hero is Zaun (3)       Letdowns Litsch (2)*, Inglett, Eckstein (7), Stairs (6)

* means +- .300 score

Eckstein has not been clutch 3 out of the last 4 games. He can be cut some slack for that home run two games ago, though.

Magpie - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 05:00 AM EDT (#183310) #
The Force is strong with this Dude.

Truly.

China fan - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#183311) #
    David Purcey might be back with the Jays sooner than we expected.  Gibbons lashed into Jesse Litsch after the game yesterday, with an expletive-laced tirade about Litsch's lack of command, and Jeff Blair reports today that the Jays seem to be losing patience with Litsch, who might be sent to the minors. 
     While we've all been worrying about the sinkholes in the batting lineup, two-fifths of the starting rotation has been pretty lousy this year.  I'm just as concerned about Burnett as I am about Litsch.   Burnett has got all the incentive in the world -- a huge payday looming in the off-season if he can pull off a strong season this year -- yet he seems as lackadaisical as ever.  The opposition is hitting .319 off him, he is allowing almost 5 walks per nine innings, and his K/BB is the worst on the team.  Of course he is a streaky guy who might still reel off a few great games in mid-season, but  the question for him (almost as much as it was for Frank Thomas) is:  how much longer should we keep waiting and waiting?
      Despite all of this, the Jays still have the 4th-best ERA in the league.  That's entirely due to Doc, Dustin, Marcum and the bullpen.  An optimistic scenario would be this:  Litsch gets it together, Burnett finally rediscovers his focus, and the Jays start winning a batch of close games.   A team can go a long way with three or four strong starters and a good bullpen -- even if DH and LF are a mess. 

scottt - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#183312) #
Gibbons is just crumbling under the pressure.

The Jays only scored 4 runs yesterday and the bullpen gave up one, so even a quality start from Litsch doesn't win this game.

The problem is not Listch and Burnett's ERAs. They both have winning records. Doc is 2-2 and McGowan is 1-1. That's why the Jays aren't over 500. No run support.



AWeb - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 07:44 AM EDT (#183313) #
Litsch is providing the type of starts that Chacin always seemed to when he was healthy...usually 5-6 IP, and 2-4 runs, with an occasional stinker thrown in. He's 23, never dominated the minors (aside from rookie ball) with a lot of strikeouts, he's the 5th starter for cripes sakes! Jesse Litsch is what we thought he was (to steal a phrase), and should get better. Unless he's in some way not trying, or shaking off the pitches called for him, I don't see what's served by Gibbons ripping his command (unless Litsch finds it motivational).  Litsch has been really unlucky so far this year...only 59.7% of balls in play off him have become outs, where 70% would be more expected. If he qualified, he'd be 3rd worst in the league. McGowan and Burnett are also at the bad end of this list.

My conclusion: Toronto's defense and luck has sucked so far, far more than the pitchers. We've downgraded shortstop substantially, left field is no longer a strength, 3rd base is a question mark (seriously...is Scutaro good there? I don't know), Wells isn't getting any better in centre, and the Jays have been generally unlucky. Maybe Gibbons can yell at the whole team to stop letting broken bat singles fall in (there's been quite a few I can recall this year)...but several of these problems would be solved with Rolen and Lind taking over, assuming Rolen is healthy.

Pistol - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#183315) #
Am I missing all of the 'cyberspace being filled with nonsense about the Jays coveting Bonds' uproar that the print media seems to be indicating?

The only uproar I know of is FREE ADAM LIND!

Barry Bonnell - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#183316) #

It is beyond ridiculous for Rios not to be in the starting line-up for Joe Inglett. J.P needs to drop the hammer on Gibbons as soon as possible.  That was a Mickey Mouse line-up we ran out there.  As bad as Thomas was our line up looks laughable without his presence. Let's hope that Lind and Rolen can spark something.

As for Burnett I wouldn't really worry about him. Barring injury I think he wil have a year similar to last year when he should have won about 16 games.

Frank Markotich - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#183318) #

I assume Lind will be up very soon, since he seems to be back in the Syracuse lineup.

I don't normally like to seond-guess every little thing, and I'm all for giving guys a day off here and there, but:

a) it seems a bit early to rest Wells and Rios, and

b) can't Gibbons wait a few days for Lind to be up and then have a real outfielder available to fill in.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#183319) #
Gibbons' lineup decision-making of the last few days and his Litsch outburst suggests that he is not at his best.  The after-effects of the Thomas situation may be playing a role.
James W - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#183320) #

Both of Rios's "rest days" have been on the day following an error.  The first day off was definitely punishment for dropping a lazy fly ball, but I didn't see Monday's error, so I have no idea if this was punishment or not.

I don't think I'm stepping out on a limb here when I say that the Jays don't lose last night if Rios is in RF instead of Inglett.

Shane - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#183321) #
From todays Bob Elliott "Yes, the Blue Jays will pay Frank Thomas $8 million to go away..." article he says of Ricciardi:

This weekend he (Ricciardi) admitted he made a mistake in casting Frank Thomas adrift. The Jays will pay Thomas $8 million US for 60 at-bats this season.

Am I missing something here? Where and when did Ricciardi do anything of the such?

China fan - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#183323) #
  Elliott is just a sloppy and lazy writer.   What he was trying to say was this:   "This weekend, by casting Frank Thomas adrift,  he (Ricciardi) admitted he made a mistake (by signing him in the first place.)"  
John Northey - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#183325) #
Just for fun I checked the ex-Jays in Chicago playing for the Cubs.

Reed Johnson: 339/415/393 over 17 games, 56 AB's
Off to a good start in CF for the Cubs.  Glad to see it.

Ted Lilly: 1-3 7.30 ERA 59 ERA+ over 24 2/3 IP, 5 starts, 11 BB 18 K's, 4 HR
Wow, has Lilly been lit up this season.  What about the other target, Gil Meche?
Meche: 1-3 8.00 ERA 56 ERA+ over 27 IP, 5 starts, 14 BB 20 K's, 5 HR
Ouch.  These two make AJ (62 ERA+) and Litsch (69 ERA+) look decent.

FYI: For the Jays the guys who pitched this year with ERA+'s below 115...
Accardo - 47
AJ - 62
Litsch - 69
League - 63
Everyone else is 115+.

timpinder - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#183330) #

I'm not at all worried about Burnett.  He's essentially a two-pitch hurler who hasn't found one of his pitches yet, but is close.  He'll get that curve working within the next couple of starts and then will be A.J. again (hopefully without the obligatory injury this time though).

I've already joined the "FREE ADAM LIND" chorus.  The Jays will face a slew of right-handers over the next few series.  There is no excuse for keeping Lind down in AAA any longer.

Thomas - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#183331) #
Gibbons' lineup decision-making of the last few days and his Litsch outburst suggests that he is not at his best. The after-effects of the Thomas situation may be playing a role.

Agreed. I think he's feeling the pressure. Why Rios needed two days off (he pinch hit in his other non-start, but it was effectively a day off) in the first 21 games is beyond me. Extrapolate that over the course of the season and you get about 15 off days over 162 games. If at the end of the season Rios has only started 147 games, despite remaining perfectly healthy the entire year, I'll be very unhappy.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#183343) #

The Jays only scored 4 runs yesterday and the bullpen gave up one, so even a quality start from Litsch doesn't win this game.

The problem is not Listch and Burnett's ERAs. They both have winning records. Doc is 2-2 and McGowan is 1-1. That's why the Jays aren't over 500. No run support.

Can't agree with this - the run support has been every bit as good as the pitching this year. We're 4th or 5th in both ERA and Runs per game.

I don't get what "only scored 4 runs" means - 4 runs should be enough to win more than a few games.

The pitching has done nothing to bail out the hitting so far - the Jays'  are now 2-9 in games in which they don't score at least 5 runs.

And I'm sorry, I don't care how good an offense a team has - there's going to be plenty of games where they offense doesn't score 5 runs.  No team can afford to have a .182 win% in those games.

 

chips - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#183344) #
Let's see. We can't score runs and Wells isn't playing tonight. Does this make sense?
Mike D - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#183346) #

Next year, we might be looking at a new Raptors coach, as well as Jays coach... who will likely share headlines with the new Leafs coach, and GM. 

And hey, don't forget that the Argos and even TFC have new coaches!  But come on, Subculture.  John Gibbons is a manager.  You know better.

Thomas - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#183386) #
Let's see. We can't score runs and Wells isn't playing tonight. Does this make sense?

The lineups on Yahoo have Rios sitting again, not Wells. Maybe he's tweaked something.

scottt - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#183397) #
The pitching has done nothing to bail out the hitting so far - the Jays'  are now 2-9 in games in which they don't score at least 5 runs.


1-0 when giving up 1 run.
3-0 when giving up 2 runs.
3-3 when giving up 3 runs.
2-2 when giving up 4 runs.
1-6 when giving up 5 runs or more.

Compare to Boston

2-0 when giving up 0 run
1-0 when giving up 1 run
5-0 when giving up 3 runs
1-1 when giving up 4 runs

That speaks for itself.



scottt - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#183399) #
Diaz is the DH.

Let's watch the base stealing.

Gerry - Wednesday, April 23 2008 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#183405) #
Rios has the flu, Overbay twisted his ankle last night according to Jordan Bastian.
uglyone - Thursday, April 24 2008 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#183492) #

That speaks for itself.

Then this must speak for itself as well:

  • 8-2 when scoring 5+ runs
  • 1-2 when scoring 4 runs
  • 1-3 when scoring 3 runs
  • 0-3 when scoring 2 runs
  • 0-2 when scoring 1 runs

as does this:

  • Jays' R/Gm: 4.63 (6th) (7th place: 4.54)
  • Jays ERA: 3.97 (5th) (6th place: 3.99)
uglyone - Thursday, April 24 2008 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#183504) #

Apologize for the extra post, but I guess the proper counterpart to those numbers would actually be:

  • 2-0 when scoring 9 runs or more
  • 1-1 when scoring 8 runs
  • 1-0 when scoring 7 runs
  • 1-0 when scoring 6 runs
  • 3-1 when scoring 5 runs
  • 2-10 when scoring 4 runs or less
Advance Scout: Rays, April 22-24 | 37 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.