Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

TDIB 16 April 2008

If you ask me, the Jays are giving us a lot to be happy about.

The good guys sport the second best pythagorean record in baseball right now, next to the amazin' Dbacks. SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT! But then again, the small sample size alert is getting less significant every day - we're almost a tenth of the way through the season.

You know what my favourite part of the Jays' early success has been? They're not even firing on all cylinders. The Big Hurt is hitting .196, Zaun and Stewart can certainly do better than OPS+' of 59 and 62, we haven't even seen Scott Rolen, Accardo has an ERA in the 8's, and Burnett has some mutant fingernail that's making his ERA look like Josh Towers. So when the guys playing over their heads inevitably cool off, maybe the effect will be balanced out by improvement from the guys who are playing below their feet at the moment.

Looking for a good game to watch tonight? How about Chien-Ming Wang vs. Clay Buchholz. Felix Hernandez vs. Joe Blanton could be fun too. And the Jays are throwing Jesse Litsch up against Kason Gabbard at the RC.

Posted by Dave Rutt on Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 01:18 PM EDT.

TDIB 16 April 2008 | 69 comments | Create New Account

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Ishai - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#182795) #

John Northey - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#182796) #

Just looking at Jay stats thinking about the 7 man pen vs a deeper bench. Checking those last two slots on the bench and pen...

Relievers after the big 5 (Tallet/Wolfe/Accardo/Frasor/Downs) total appearances after 14 games = 8 - 4 by Carlson, 2 by League, 1 each for BJ & Wells.

Bench after the starting 9, Stairs & Barajas = 18 appearances - 8 by Coats, 6 by McDonald, 4 by Inglett

From this one can see a strong argument for another hitter over the 7th pitcher. League and Wells both gathered dust before Wells was sent away for Carlson and League for BJ (I think that is the order of changes).

Checking Pitching Game Logs to determine when last used...
Tallet: Monday
Wolfe: Tuesday
Accardo: Sunday
Frasor: Monday
Downs: Sunday
Ryan: Sunday
Carlson: Tuesday
Surprisingly enough all relievers have been used in the last 3 days (since Halladay's complete game). Just one game went more than 9 and it just went 10.

For the hitters I'm checking last game started
Stairs: Tuesday
Barajas: Sunday
McDonald: Sunday
Inglett: Monday
Scutaro: Tuesday

Given the current setup we have a platoon for third with Inglett/Scutaro, Zaun/Barajas splitting catcher, Stairs/Stewart platooning in LF leaving just McDonald as a pure bench guy. Another bench guy who can be used as a runner/pinch hitter who can play the outfield and/or catcher would be useful and exists in Thigpen at AAA who sadly isn't hitting but could be used as backup for Zaun/Barajas when needed. Lind in LF would shift Stairs to the bench/backup DH. Russ Adams might be a good supersub now (CF/2B/SS - 243/391/432 in AAA believe it or not, small sample size warning).

I think the Jays next big decision on this front though comes when Rolen is ready. Inglett is looking good so far, Scutaro is not but is a 'proven backup' with a 2 year contract ($2.65 mil) and both are not young thus you don't worry about them wasting away on the bench. Right now I'd say keep both and work on both learning how to catch for situations where Zaun and Barajas have both been used and you really need a runner late in the game (12 inning or something). I'm sure both would jump on the chance as both want to stick around (especially Inglett). Sadly, this would mean someone in the pen goes with Wolfe or Carlson to AAA or Accardo traded for something else (help at SS that is young and good).

Mylegacy - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#182797) #

Lind (.391/.442/.696/1.138 at AAA) to LF - Righty/Lefty Thomas/Stairs platoon at DH.

First starter falls - Purcey (2-0, era 1.89, whip .95 at AAA) to the rescue. First catcher falters - Diaz (.407/.414/.556/.969 at AAA) dons the tools of ignorance in the show.

Tonight's game: Smoke & Mirrors Litsch makes it 3 & 0.

Gosh this is easy.

cascando - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#182798) #

I like a lot of what is being said here, except that I don't think you can teach someone to catch major league pitching after 10-12 years in pro ball playing elsewhere. At least not without some serious time in the minors to learn the basics (and see if they're even capable). The last thing I'd want to see is Marco Scutaro behind the dish in extra innings.

If a player like Thigpen or Diaz can mutate into a super-sub capable of playing some IF and the OF as well (both easier to teach)... that would be a useful player.

Chuck - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#182799) #

You know what my favourite part of the Jays' early success has been? They're not even firing on all cylinders.

Not to be a wet blanket, but doesn't this line of thinking come with it the built in fallacy of assuming that those who are currently overperforming will continue to do so?

Looking at the team's aggregated numbers is probably more instructive than cherry-picking the underperformers.

The Jays' RF/RA is currently 5.43 (2nd) / 3.71 (3rd). Last year, it was 4.65 (10th) / 4.31 (2nd). Are these current ordinals sustainable? Can the team continue to be among the league's best on offense and defense? Certainly the latter was a gimme, entering the season, with all concerns resting on the former. I, personally, saw middle-of-the-pack as their potential offensive high water mark. Others were more optimistic. I guess we'll see.

Their offensive components are 282/370/394 compared to last year's 259/327/419. The slugging does figure to go up as the weather warms, but that's probably true for all teams (the AL's slugging is currently .401 compared to last year's .423).

That .370 OBP is the number that really sticks out and is begging to be subjected to some whack-a-mole treatment. Last year's 968-run juggernaut Yankees led the AL with a .366 OBP and I don't think anyone is realistically comparing this year's Jays to last year's Yankees. That .370 OBP is going to come down, but how far? Time will tell if (a) Denbo has truly converted noted non-walkers, Wells and Rios, into walkers and (b) the team can continue their ridiculous HBP pace (David Eckstein is exactly tracking Ron Hunt's 520 AB/50 HBP record-setting season with 52 AB/5 HBP).

Bailey - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#182800) #

If the Blue Jays ever win the World Series again, they should have an official "We forgive you Josh Towers" Day, like the Red Sox had for Buckner.

All it takes is two World Series wins for the Red Sox fans to stop the death threats.

Except that Red Sox fans never hated Buckner. He came back to play for them in 1990 and was well received by the fans as well as in the late 90s when he was the hitting coach with the White Sox. It was more of a media thing about Buckner than Red Sox fans hating him.

Dave Rutt - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#182801) #

Not to be a wet blanket, but doesn't this line of thinking come with it the built in fallacy of assuming that those who are currently overperforming will continue to do so?

Of course, Chuck, which is why later in the paragraph I wrote:

So when the guys playing over their heads inevitably cool off, maybe the effect will be balanced out by improvement from the guys who are playing below their feet at the moment.

I'm not saying that everything will balance, all parts of the equation will be equal, and the Jays will continue to pythag-play at a 110 win pace (in fact, they most certainly won't). But not everything is going right so far, so we shouldn't feel like they're on the cusp of going 2-14.

Bid - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#182802) #

Not to worry about moving Scutaro to foul ground...Johnny Mac isn't just a pure bench guy...

"During the 2006 season,..John McDonald was labeled the "Emergency Back-up Catcher" for the Blue Jays behind their starting catchers Bengie Molina and Gregg Zaun as both played the role of Designated Hitter when they were not defensive catchers."

Gotta love Wikipedia...

Rob - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#182803) #

the Jays are throwing Jesse Litsch up against Kason Gabbard at the RC.

Tonight is not going to go well. The Rangers have lost five in a row. Haven't scored more than five runs in the last 10 days. The Jays have barely seen Gabbard. It all adds up to an Evelanding.

In other news, the Orioles, despite not being very good, still managed a six-game winning streak this month. Which the Jays haven't done since the days of Pat Hentgen.

Chuck - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#182805) #

But not everything is going right so far, so we shouldn't feel like they're on the cusp of going 2-14.

With a 5.43/3.71 RF/RA, the only macro thing that's not going right at the moment is their ability to optimally spread out their runs.

Dave Rutt - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#182806) #

the only macro thing that's not going right

How about a .749 OPS with RISP, 16th in MLB? Or .650 with RISP and 2 outs, 19th in MLB? A .698 DER, which is exactly league average? A .788 Revised Zone Rating, 2nd last in the AL, for a mostly unchanged defense that was one of the best in baseball last year?

As I said, I don't expect the home boys to win 110 games, but there's plenty of reason to believe they can keep playing at, say, a 90 win pace.

Dave Rutt - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#182807) #

Sorry, "mostly unchanged defense" is a little unfair - Mcdonald to Eckstein is a big drop, this year's LF defense is a little worse, and I'm not sure about Glaus vs. Scutaro. Nevertheless, I doubt those changes would cause the defense to plummet to 2nd worst in the AL.

zeppelinkm - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#182808) #

Chuck, who's over achieving that is going to come back down to earth?

The hitters:

Rios, Wells, and Hill are the only guys drastically exceeding expectations. And you know what? I wouldn't be surprised if the regression these guys show is minimal. Sure, i'd be flabbergasted if Hill finishes the year with the same avg/obp/slg as he's posting right now, however, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if both Hill and Rios post numbers better then they ever have, and if Wells ends up somewhere between his 2 career years and his 3 "average" years.

However, their declines very realistically could be offset by increases in performance from Overbay, Zaun, Stairs/Stewart, Thomas, and the return of Rolen, who have all under performed to date.

On the pitching side:

I wouldn't expect regression from Halladay. Litsch and Marcum could very well be exceeding their true levels of ability right now, but regression from them could easily be offset by improvements from Burnett. Not to mention McGowan has yet to have a start where he's been throwing his best stuff, but his numbers right now are right about what I'd expect them to be, so I don't want to say he'll improve, but it is defiitely possible based off what we've seen.

In the pen, aside from Tallet, nobody is really surprising is. Nobody, except Accardo. And his is a bad surprise!

So while it's fair to say that on a macro level things ARE going well for the Jays, when you break it down to the micro, it is quite reasonable to say any regression some Jays might experience will be offset by gains from guys who are currently underachieving.

Is it just possible, that maybe this team is better then we've given it credit for? The Jays did under perform their expected record the previous two seasons (didn't they?), and last year were truly devasted by injuries. This year they have better back up options (Rolen + Eckstein as starters + Scutaro and MacDonald as subs sure beats Glaus + ClaytDonald as starters + Luna/Smith/Clark/Adams as subs) and Barajas sure beats Thigpen/Fasano/Phillips as backup options taking 250 AB's.

I too doubt the Jays will end up a .370 OBP. But .355 to me sounds realistic. Improved patience from Rios and Wells, combined with Eckstein getting at bats instead of Clayton and MacDonald (respective 07 OBP's of .304 and .279 versus Eckstein's career .352 which is actually lower then what he posted last year), plus the at bats that the wasted backup catchers were taking last year going to Barajas (who is far from an OBP machine, but his .300 OBP sure as heck beats (Phillips 07 OBP .269, Thigpen OBP in 07 = .294, Fasano OBP 07 = .229), so gains in OBP should be expected.

Chuck - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#182809) #

Okay Dave, I'm not trying to be a contrarian and I do concede the general thrust of your argument, but you are getting much less macro on me here with each new metric. Despite none of the rates you cited being particulary impressive, the bottom line is still 5.41/3.71, regardless of how they got there.

Magpie - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#182810) #

Except that Red Sox fans never hated Buckner.

That's absolutely right. Boston fans knew that it was Buckner, playing in a great deal of pain all year long, who had salvaged his own season and lifted the team to the division title (over a charging Blue Jays squad) when he got red hot that September (.340, 8 HR, 22 RBI).

They hated John McNamara for leaving a gimpy Buckner in the game - he was normally lifted for a better (i.e., not crippled, sort of mobile) defender when Boston had a lead. With the World Series about to be won, McNamara got sentimental.

Craig B - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#182813) #

They hated John McNamara for leaving a gimpy Buckner in the game - he was normally lifted for a better (i.e., not crippled, sort of mobile) defender when Boston had a lead.

Actually, they would lift him for Dave Stapleton, who couldn't hit for toffee but was in the opinion of almost everyone, an outstanding defensive player at first base.

With the World Series about to be won, McNamara got sentimental.

Hmph. McNamara says that now, but I'm skeptical to say the least. With the Sox holding a 3-2 lead going to the bottom of the eighth, and Buckner having just hit, he could have removed him then too, and he didn't - and the WS was even further away from being "won" then. No, I think McNamara just was letting Buckner play, because he was essentially making moves at random at that point, just totally choking. The more you pick at that game, the more nothing makes sense, actually. Like Schiraldi hitting for himself with a one-run lead and one out in the 10th. McNamara was OK with Bob Stanley pitching once the winning runners got on, but he couldn't bear to use a pinch-hitter for Schiraldi five batters before?

I think both managers did their best to choke the game away, in fact... Davey not having anyone getting warm when Aguilera came out for his second inning in the 10th, then having Aguilera stay in to face Barrett after the Boggs double? What the hell?

Mike D - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#182815) #

Somewhat off-topic, but I didn't learn until today that this guy was the son of this guy. Cool, eh? I just don't often think of father-son combos when they play different sports, or at least sports that different.

Craig B - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#182817) #

Mike! YOU. JUST. BLEW. MY. MIND.

I had no idea that Marvell Wynne was actually Marvell Wynne Jr. That's amazing. Wynne's a very good wingback.

Mike D - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#182820) #

My mind was blown too! I didn't even conceive of the possibility, even though (a) I know the soccer player and clearly remember the ballplayer, and (b) they are both named Marvell Wynne, hardly a garden-variety name.

scottt - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#182826) #

Let's see. Litsch vs a young lefty.

The Rangers are due for a win, but after all they are the away team. And they've been pilling up the errors. They're on track to commit 185 or something like that.

Milton Bradley is not allowed to play the outfield in Toronto. Everybody is scared of the artificial turf these days. MB will be the DH.
That doesn't make a huge difference since they didn't put him in the outfield when the Jays were in Arlington.

I wouldn't be afraid to welcome Eveland back in the dome with Hill hitting in the second spot.

Ideally, I'd like Barajas behind the plate, but I don't think he's available to start.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#182829) #

Another HBP for Eckstein. Does the club give out special equipment to its leadoff hitters to prepare them, a la James Bond?

Chuck - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#182830) #

I referred to Ron Hunt earlier in the day, but Eckstein is now on pace for about 65 HBPs with 6 in 15 games. It's a tough way to prop up your OBP, but works just as well as walks... as long you survive the physical abuse, that is.

scottt - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#182831) #

Long game in the Bronx. 9-11 in the bottom of 5th.

scottt - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#182832) #

What did I tell you about errors?

VBF - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#182833) #

I tuned in late for the game, so i may not have had the whole picture.

-Eckstein is at bat with runners on second and third.
-Stewart is on the bench.
-Stewart does not hit for Eckstein.

I suppose it's arguable and Eckstein hacks on Littleton, but I'd MUCH rather have Stewart in than Eckstein, where that go ahead run is likely the winner.

Rob - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#182834) #

I didn't think you needed six pitchers to get through five innings, but I'm not the manager. Anyway, through 10, Brian Wolfe has thrown an inning, and Jesse Carlson is the only reliever left in the bullpen. Is it Burnett's throw day? Is Menechino still in O.B.?

uglyone - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#182835) #

well, Inglett had just pinch hit for McDonald, so Inglett would have been forced to play SS in the 9th.

given that Eck has simply been much better than Stewart so far, and that Stewart just tweaked his groin, I think letting Eck hit was the right move.

Sheldon - Wednesday, April 16 2008 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#182837) #

Good grief, how many chances have each team had to just end this game....ugh.

Now Burnett is in. Lets hope he can get through with a minimum of pitches.

btw Jesse Carlson is great.

jeff mcl - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#182838) #

If it ever came down to bringing in a position player to pitch at some point in the future, I'd want to go with Eckstein and his wicked (unintentional) 12-6 curve. Heyo!

And you all know that AJ will get injured b/c of the 1 unscheduled inning he threw in relief tonight...

Magpie - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#182839) #

I think McNamara just was letting Buckner play, because he was essentially making moves at random at that point, just totally choking.

That would explain quite a lot, actually.

And yes, sports fans, Stapleton did come in for Buckner in each of the three earlier games in the series when Boston had a late lead - once as a pinch runner, and twice after Buckner made an out after batting in the 8th.

Magpie - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#182840) #

Hmm. And I see the A.J. Burnett "Opt out after this year and get an even bigger deal" express has yet to leave the station.

timpinder - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#182841) #

That was a tough loss. I thought that after Carlson came in and struck out the side with none out and the bases loaded, that the Jays would win it that inning. It was painful to watch the squandered opportunities. I hope Rolen gets back soon, Stairs and Thomas start to platoon at DH, and Lind gets called up. I don't blame Inglett, but I can't help but think that Rolen wouldn't have grounded into a double play and then struck out on two opportunities to win the game in extra innings. As for Thomas, he's just hard to stomach right now. A .739 OPS against RHP is not acceptable production from a DH on a contending team. How long until Stairs starts to DH against RHP and Lind gets called up?

On another note, I wonder if the Jays will get a Chief on the bus. League threw tonight, so he won't get called up, but the Jays are hurting for bullpen arms. They had better hope that Halladay is ready to toss another complete game.

Mike Forbes - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 02:18 AM EDT (#182842) #

Paging Josh Banks, paging Josh Banks...

John Northey - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#182844) #

Wow, guess we do need 7 or more relievers.

I'd say Carlson has earned his slot on this staff. Still, 9 walks, 18 hits, 2 home runs given up will normally cost you. The Jay hitters had just 13 hits and 7 walks with no home runs.

This was, again, a winnable game and I just have to keep thinking about how extra inning and one run games are more luck than skill and will even out in the end and that nothing will predict how these types of games will go. Although I do hope Gibbons learns not to burn a reliever for just one batter in the 6th inning.

So now the Jays record in extras is 1-2 and one run games (which this was not) is 1-5.

Also of note after 15 games...
Times using 12 or more batters: 4 (leaves one or none on the bench)
Times using 6 or more pitchers: 2 (leaves 2 or fewer on the bench)

Big surprise: checking the stats no one has had more than 3 days rest in the pen outside of first appearances of the season.

Chuck - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#182845) #

Wow, guess we do need 7 or more relievers.

Especially when channeling Tony LaRussa.

If Gibbons can't trust Frasor (for whatever reason) to pitch more than a third of an inning in middle relief in a game that the team is losing, then Frasor needs to be replaced. Or the team needs a half dozen more relievers.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#182850) #

Down by 2 after 6 innings is a fairly low leverage situation. Taking out Frasor in order to get a marginal platoon advantage was short-sighted, as Chuck suggests.

On the positive side, if the club continues to walk as much as they have and strike out as seldom, they're going to win a lot of games, managerial mistakes or not.

ayjackson - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#182852) #

Down 2 after 6 is a good time to manage to platoon advantages, even if you think they're marginal. It's a sight better idea than conserving your seven-man bullpen in case you go 14 innings. I hardly consider down 2 after 6 low-leverage. If Gibbons did, I'd want him fired on the spot. If that 2 run deficit could have been preserved, we would have won the game.

The good news is Frasor is available tonight.

Chuck - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#182854) #

Down 2 after 6 is a good time to manage to platoon advantages, even if you think they're marginal.

Frasor, career, vs RHB: 245/323/378
Tallet, career, vs RHB: 237/334/372

Young, career, vs LHP/RHP: 308/356/474, 299/343/437

That's about as marginal an upgrade as one can imagine, at the cost of burning a pitcher in a game when you have gone to the bullpen in the 6th inning. Yes, you shouldn't manage in anticipation of games going 14 innings, but in a pen of short men, a little caution might have been wise.

Changing topic, I was a little surprised to see Inglett attempt a squeeze bunt. It's not that I didn't think it was a good idea -- I think it was -- it's just that I would have expected Eckstein to have been called on to do the same in the 8th, when there were men at 2nd and 3rd and one out. Eckstein's not a sac fly threat but is a pretty good bunter, if memory serves.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#182855) #

According to Tango's leverage index charts, down 2 after 6 innings has a leverage of 0.7. For comparison's sake, up 3 after 6 innings has a leverage of 1.0. If the manager is going to pull pitchers after 1 batter in situations with this low leverage to gain a marginal platoon advantage routinely, you are going to go through a lot of relievers game after game. In this case, the Rangers had Hamilton/Bradley/Blalock/Botts/Murphy due up in the 7th. There would have been nothing wrong with having Frasor face Hamilton and Bradley and then bringing on Downs to face Blalock through Cat in the Rangers' order. That might have helped in this particular game, given Accardo's difficulties with the cutter this season.

topherkris - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#182858) #

Has anyone been tracking the pfx data for certain blue jays pitchers as of late? I haven't been tracking it, as i grabbed my self a star pass so i've been going to most of the games, as opposed to watching them whilst infront of my computer.

Anyways, something is clearly wrong with at least a couple of our pitchers, and hopefully it'll eventually present itself beyond AJ cant throw strikes, or accardo's split and cut fast ball are no longer doing either dropping or moving.

If you guys could point me to the resident pfx guru, i'd love to do some chit-chatting after i plot some of this data.

ayjackson - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#182859) #

In this case, the Rangers had Hamilton/Bradley/Blalock/Botts/Murphy due up in the 7th. There would have been nothing wrong with having Frasor face Hamilton and Bradley and then bringing on Downs to face Blalock through Cat in the Rangers' order.

I prefer bringing Downs into face Hamilton and leaving him into face Bradley and Blalock. I liked bringing in Frasor to face Young. IMO, these moves were effective and I agreed with them at the time. I'm not blaming these moves for Catalanatto taking Accardo deep either. Perhaps Accardo belongs behind Wolfe and Frasor on the depth chart now, but you don't go from closer to 7th overnight.

As an aside, each year Gibby gives Frasor some high leverage opportunities and he seems to pitch his way down the depth chart from there. Now he has to pitch his way up. He's got the stuff, but when he pitches up in the zone, he gets burned.

uglyone - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#182861) #

As far as I'm concerned, the Jays deserve to lose any game in which they willingly insert John McDonald into the starting lineup, and I'll never be surprised when we don't score enough runs when he's in there (especially when we're being forced to use backups in other slots due to injury).

On the flipside, our weak-hitting Jays are 1st in the AL in runs scored, and 2nd in all of baseball. (2nd in r/gm in the AL, 4th in r/gm MLB), which is nice.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#182862) #

Over his career, Frasor has in fact pitched very well in "late and close" situations, with opponents hitting .228/.313/.340. That is not as good as Ryan, but perfectly respectable.

Mylegacy - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#182864) #

Thursday morning dreaming...

While watching the Rangers pull the Jays teeth last night I was following the Sox/Yanks game on gameday on my laptop - 30 hits! It re-reminds me that the Jays have the pitching and defense but are are still short on the hitting. We HAVE to do everything to maximize our hitting. I (and others) suggest Lind to LF, Stairs/Thomas in a platoon, anybody at SS except Eckstein - try Inglett even, Zaun and Rod at C, and I suggest we give Rolen finger steroids. We need that little bit more!

Paris for lunch - delicious, Rome for dinner - exquisite, Purcey on Friday - PRICELESS! The baseball gods have scorned us at times BUT if the big lefty is ready - if his fast start is because the light has gone on - not just that his gout is in remission - we will have the 6th starter this year we so badly need when one goes down and the cheap replacement for the bionic ER ward when he goes walkabout this winter.

John Northey - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#182865) #

For some fun I checked Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds reports. They have 3 versions with different results for the Jays.

Standard edition, uses just this years stats - no projections so it thinks that Hill/Wells/Rios are all 140+ OPS+ guys
Odds = 30.7% which is lower than the Yankees (39%) but higher than the Red Sox (29%)
ELO Adjusted version, uses a method created for chess
Odds = 36.9% which is lower than both the Yankees (55%) and Red Sox (51%)
PECOTA Adjusted version, uses the PECOTA projection system which hates the Jays and loves the Rays
Odds = 9.3% which is lower than the Yankees (73%), Red Sox (52%) and Rays (30%)

Whats funny is PECOTA has dropped the odds of the Jays making the playoffs from 11% to 9%. The standard edition shifted the Jays up by 3% (they dropped 7% from yesterday to today though). The ELO version has dropped the Jays by 0.6%

Both ELO and Standard see the Jays landing in the mid-80 range for wins while PECOTA still has them at 77 wins. FYI: PECOTA also has the Tigers getting to 88 wins despite the very slow start, the Rays to 86.

Wildrose - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#182866) #

If you guys could point me to the resident pfx guru, i'd love to do some chit-chatting after i plot some of this data.

This guy does outstanding work ( amongst other things) regarding the Jays and pitch FX data. I make it a point to stop there every morning.

John Northey - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#182867) #

Just for fun...
The Left Field battle!

Reed Johnson: 281-351-313 over 11 games in Chicago
Shannon Stewart: 241-343-241 over 10 games here
Matt Stairs: 314-342-400 over 12 games here
Adam Lind: 360-411-640 over 14 games in AAA
Russ Adams: 250-400-425 over 13 games in AAA (mainly in CF)
Travis Snider: 280-321-540 over 13 games in high-A (DH only so far)

I tossed Adams in there for fun as his 400 OBP is quite surprising. I think the Jays will wait until May before calling up Lind, assuming he keeps hitting well, and at that point we might see Stewart released as Inglett/Scutaro can cover emergency situations in the outfield while also backing up the infield positions. If an injury occurs to Rios or Wells then Lind-Wells/Rios-Stairs covers the outfield with Coats or someone else filling in short term 4th slot.

uglyone - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#182868) #

Do they really have Russ out there in CF?

Mike Green - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#182870) #

Adams was in right-field yesterday. Given his lack of arm strength, it was a curious place to put him, much as third base was last year.

Wildrose - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#182872) #

Forbes has its annual baseball valuation series posted. Take some of the numbers with a grain of salt, but its pretty well the best source out there regarding MLB revenue generation.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#182874) #

All I saw on this story initially was "Tejada comes clean".

He's turning 34 next month, so I guess you have to adjust his chances of being Hall-worthy considerably.

Geoff - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#182875) #

If you think having kids ages you faster, try being mentioned in the Mitchell report.

All the guilt Miguel Tejada has felt this year wracked him so hard that he has declared that he has aged two years. He'd like everyone to start calling him a 33-year-old ballplayer accused of using steroids, not a 31-year-old ballplayer accused of using steroids.

"Perhaps now I can put all this stuff behind me. It happened so long ago, when I was a much younger man. I would like to go back to playing baseball now."

When asked about providing more detail about what he had done, Miguel said, "I am so old that I forget now what happened."

No word yet on the aging of other players.

John Northey - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#182876) #

Ah, the annual Forbes report. Always enjoy reading this.

Their main article states for the Jays...
"Meanwhile Rogers Communications, which owns the Blue Jays, their stadium and the cable channel that televises its games, derives huge benefits from owning the Blue Jays not reflected on its team's P&L statement."

They list the Jays a heck of a lot lower than I would, #22 behind such 'large' markets as Detroit, Cleveland, Colorado, Seattle, and St Louis among others. A current value of $352 million, 2% increase despite a massive jump in the dollar over the past year which seems counter-intuitive. Also lists revenues of just $160 million and a loss of $1.8 million. I suspect this all lands under the statement above about how they hide the benefits.

The Jays page has more details. Here it seems clear the data is based on 2008 estimated value. It doesn't show their estimate of TV contract value, but lists gate receipts at $42 million. I would love to know how the Jays estimate of increase in revenue of just $3 million though. From the revenue figures the big jumps were between '05 and '06 ($29 mil) and '06 to '07 ($21 million). It also shows operating income that was negative from '99 through '03 (between $3 and 24 million per year totaling $63 million) and positive from '04 to '07 ($49 million) and slightly negative for '08.

Of note: this must be the first time ever that Forbes estimate of total MLB revenue is lower than MLB's public estimate. Forbes has it at $5.5 billion vs Selig's mentioning of $6+ billion.

Oh, and for the Ex-Expos - they had an operating profit of $43.7 million estimated for '08. Wow. This with a payroll of $57 million estimated. Must be nice and explains why the Big Owe sees more tractor pulls than ballgames nowadays.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#182878) #

Dan Fox to the Pirates. It'll be interesting to see if this presages other welcome Pirate changes, such as intelligent drafting and trading. The good folk of Pittsburgh deserve it.

Sherrystar - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#182879) #

David Purcey has been called up (according to TSN) Wolfe to the DL I hope he starts tomorrow against the Tigers as I'm going to the game!

Chuck - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#182880) #

Dan Fox to the Pirates.

Gentlemen, please have a look at this first slide in my PowerPoint presentation. Can anyone tell me why I have a red X through this picture of Randall Simon? Anyone?

Bailey - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#182881) #

Purcey gets the call up according to the MacLeod:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080417.WBbaseball20080417161931/WBStory/WBbaseball/

Mike Green - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#182882) #

McLeod' s story refers to Randy Wolfe. Brian Wolfe, Randy Wolf...sometimes it's hard to tell the wolves apart when they are in a pack.

Chuck - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#182883) #

Purcey gets the call up according to the MacLeod

"To make room on the roster for Purcey, the Jays have announced they have placed pitcher Randy Wolfe on the 15-day disabled list."

Are the Padres okay with this?

Rob - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#182885) #

Sorry Chuck, Mike G wins that one.

uglyone - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#182886) #

So is the Wolfe "injury" real?

Chuck - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#182887) #

Sorry Chuck, Mike G wins that one.

Swim with the pedants and that'll happen.

Geoff - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#182888) #

Who are the Jays starters this weekend? My expectation was AJ Friday, McGowan Saturday and Marcum Sunday.

Now I'm fearing it will be Purcey Friday, McGowan Saturday and AJ Sunday. Fearing only because I don't the aggravation of watching AJ pitch on Sunday.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#182889) #

I'd rather be a pedestrian than a pedant. Never mind.

Interesting batting order tonight. Five right-handed hitters followed by Stairs, Overbay, Zaun and Inglett. Mind you, with Texas only having closer Wilson throwing from the left-side, it's not quite the same deal as it usually would be.

scottt - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#182891) #

Why would they sit Wolfe 15 days if he was healthy?

It bugs me to have day-to-day players on such a small bench. Especially guys who can't pinch run.

Burnett threw 24 pitches. That's probably nothing to him. Just pull him after 5 innings.

I don't see anything wrong with Eck's line .281 .379 .316

scottt - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#182892) #

Interesting batting order tonight. Five right-handed hitters followed by Stairs, Overbay, Zaun and Inglett. Mind you, with Texas only having closer Wilson throwing from the left-side, it's not quite the same deal as it usually would be.

You'll have to get used to it. The top 5 guys have been a fixture since they moved Hill to the second spot. This is the exact same lineup they used against Mendoza 5 days ago.

A week ago, Padilla was perfect until he issued a walk and had to pitch from the stretch.

halejon - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#182894) #

Your wish is my command...if you look back a few posts, I think that A.J.'s curve has not been dropping (first it wasn't curving), and Accardo's splitter (while still moving) is being left high (and is erratic), and has lead to almost 100% the hits against him. There's a few more, will get to them eventually.

Geoff - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#182897) #

So the news from Mr. MacLeod is that AJ pitches on Saturday after Purcey tomorrow.

Will that leave McGowan for Sunday?

The AP is saying that Burnett will pitch Sunday, McGowan Saturday.

timpinder - Thursday, April 17 2008 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#182901) #

Can anyone explain to me why Gibbons still insists on batting Thomas in the middle of the order? He was terrible in spring training, and he's terrible right now. If the Jays are going to buy into the thought that Thomas will kill his team for "only" the first two months and then eventually come around, they should at least have him hit at the bottom of the order until he does. If the Jays won't platoon Thomas and Stairs at DH, and they won't move Thomas to the bottom of the order, they should at least move Stairs ahead of Thomas to break up the lefty/righty hitters and offer Wells a little protection. Is it ever frustrating to watch Thomas kill every rally started by Hill, Rios and Wells ahead of him.

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