Thankfully, some other Lugnuts were not rained out, and NBC Sports was there.

Someone has to say it at least once a day...

Bring Lind to Toronto, send Coats down and have Stewart/Stairs on the bench.  Soon.  Please?

The guy that organized that whole Lugnuts-Mudcats thing- his name is Charlie Todd and he is pretty freakin funny. He is in charge of a site called http://improveverywhere.com/ and I've actually had him as a teacher in NYC. I fully recommend checking out some of his other stuff.

It's funny how everyone seems to have forgotten about Lind and basically written him off as a prospect. He's hit at every level and I think it's just a matter of time before he's here as the every day LF. (Didn't Blair quote JP as saying Lind would be the every day LF starting in '09)

I hope he keeps it up cause I haven't been impressed by Stewart or Stairs.

It's funny how everyone seems to have forgotten about Lind and basically written him off as a prospect. He's hit at every level and I think it's just a matter of time before he's here as the every day LF. (Didn't Blair quote JP as saying Lind would be the every day LF starting in '09)

I hope he keeps it up cause I haven't been impressed by Stewart or Stairs.

I'm surprised that's the impression you get - I get the complete opposite impression where just about everyone thinks that Lind's ready to be a starting LF right now (I'm the exception that proves the rule).

Also, Blair didn't give a source for his 2009 comment.

My thoughts were based on the fact Lind was talked about a lot on this board before he had his horrible showing last year. I think many people just wrote off any chance of him being a legit "prospect" (call it "Romero" syndrome if you wish!). He starts the year in Syracuse on a tear and yet, little is it mentioned.

And I do agree with you that he should get more time in Syracuse. I'm guess I'm just hoping he contiunes to impress in AAA and gets another chance with the big club.

Who's the legit outfield prospect?

Player A

A         20        263/299/354

A+       21        305/344/408 

AA       22        352/398/521

AAA    23        259/294/373

MLB    23        286/338/383

Player B

A-        20        308/366/474

A+       21        313/375/487 

AA       22        310/357/543

AAA    22        394/496/596

AAA    23        299/353/471

MLB   23         238/278/400

Player B is Lind. Player A started out as a bust, then became an okay prospect, then a very good one, then a failed one who, according to many, had no place whatsoever on a contending team. Then he turned into an All-Star and signed a six-year deal.

A few things on the Rios comparison.

1. I have not said that Lind is not a good prospect right now.
2. Rios always had defense and speed going for him - extra tools make for better prospects.
3. Rios had a lot of room to grow on his frame.  The presumption was always that his power would come as he bulked up and got stronger.  Rios still has room to grow and add power.  Lind is pretty much at what you'd expect to be his optimal size for his frame and has always been this way.
   

CJF: But the thing is... Stewart and Stairs are stinking up the joint right now!

Stewart: .238/.346/.238 while Stairs is posting a staggering .176/.222/.353 (while playing through an injury, nonetheless, which could result in him having a subpar performance all year).

Lind is on FIRE to start the year. Are we supposed to let him dominate for 2 more months and hope that Stairs or Stewart suddenly turns it on? I know that's what we hope, but what if they don't?

You gotta take a chance if you want to win in this division. I know you don't view Lind as optimistically as some others do, but for a kid who has shown steady improvement every year of his professional career, i'd rather have him suffer through 2 months of developing in the majors then 2 months of Stairs and Stewart regressing. But my opinion is that he wouldn't struggle to develop. Not the way he did last year. If anything he comes up and starts about a 770 OPS (340 OPS 430 SLG I think is reasonable), with steady improvement every month.

The risk/reward element of this decision makes it even more obvious, me thinks. What's the reward with continuing to give all these at-bat's to Stewart and Stairs? The reward is they rediscover their stroke and hit well.

The reward to giving Lind the opportunity to hit while he's hitting with confidence, is a bonafide LF for the Jays. Not just for this year, either.

I am not on board with the idea of leaving Lind in the minors for another 2 months, while Stairs and Stewart are struggling so badly. IF, and ONLY if, they start hitting the bejesus out of the ball can you justify it, but as long as they are stinking, you really can't.

Final note: I could probably tolerate Lind in the minors until the end of April before my head would actually explode, if the current batch of hitters in this discussion all continue what they're doing right now (Stairs, Stewart, and Lind).

 

A couple of things on Lind.  First of all, he seems to be following the Aaron Hill path of major league exposure.  They both started their big league career's on fire, then struggled when pitchers adjusted.

Hill's OPS by month:
1.040
.867
.574
.701
.608
.483
.827 (In his 7th month Hill figured it out and has been pretty good since)

Lind's OPS by month:
1.015
.886
.480
.648
.885 (very small sample)
.771 (In his 5th month Lind started to come around, but he has been in AAA since, and hitting a tonne)

I think it's normal for young players to struggle after major league pitchers find their holes, and the good hitters in turn make their own adjustments eventually.  I think Lind is one of those good hitters. 

I think Jason Bay and Carlos Lee are good comparisons for Lind, and Lind has hit better than of them in the minors and at a younger age.

The only reason I'd hold off on Lind right now would be to wait until he can come up without losing a year of control.  My understanding from information provided by bauxites in another thread is that if Lind comes up today, he'll be a free agent after 2012, but if he comes up in a couple of months, maybe sooner, he won't have accumulated two years in the majors before the end of 2008, thus he becomes a free agent after 2013.  Correct me if I'm wrong.

Can we please have an honest and accurate discussion of Lind ... correcting factual errors are what make everyone think I'm so down on him.

I know you don't view Lind as optimistically as some others do, but for a kid who has shown steady improvement every year of his professional career

What about last year?  Lind has shown progress twice and regressed once.  67% is a lot less than 100%.

Stewart: .238/.346/.238 while Stairs is posting a staggering .176/.222/.353 (while playing through an injury, nonetheless, which could result in him having a subpar performance all year).

We've played 9 games!!  I agree with Stairs going on the DL, but let's not get ahead of ourselves and write off Stewart after 9 games and think all is cured with Lind after 9 games.

The risk/reward element of this decision makes it even more obvious, me thinks.

Especially when you only consider the reward part of a risk / reward discussion.

You neglected to mention the risks ... with a promotion of Lind, absent a DL stint for Stairs, which I think it looks like he needs, the risk is that we use up 2 months of Lind's service time, get little performance for it, and move his service clock along two more months.  Ask the Rays if they'd like to have control of Gaudin right about now?  I'm not in favor of keeping people down just for the sake of service clock, but that is a factor that has to be considered and why I think you leave someone down until they force their way in - and that's not possible after 9 games.

Also, aside from a DL stint for Stairs, which again, it looks like he needs, we have to drop someone off our 25-man roster (and lose them I believe) ... someone who provided value in the majors last year more than Lind and who, by most projection systems (i.e. Zips), is likely to provide more value than Lind this year.  Stairs is the one exception to this by the way.

For both Lind staying in AAA and a Lind promotion, we have the risk that we're playing the inferior player.  Note, this is on top of the risk of the lost player that comes with a Lind promotion - the loss of a player is a loss of depth, here I am referring to decreased performance.

By my, admittedly quick and subjective, analysis, there are a lot more risks associated with a Lind promotion than a Lind demotion.

Service time shouldn't be an issue if the Jays are serious about competing this year. If you ("you" being Jays management) believe he's ready for the majors, or at least an improvement on Stewart, you've got to promote him. Worrying about free agency a few years down the line has to be a secondary consideration, particularly with players like Snider, Chavez, and Eiland in the system who may be able to replace him by that time.

Service time is an issue if you're not sure whether Lind or Stewart or Stairs is your best option at LF.  You can bring Lind up and see if he's ready yet, but if a month in the minors saves you a year before FA, in this scenario, you'd leave him down.

Lind will be 25 in July. Even if he got credit for a full season in 2008 and was a regular from here on in, he'd be under team control until age 29. I can see worrying about service time when you're talking about a 21- or 22-year old, but not a guy Lind's age.

Lind will be 25 in July. Even if he got credit for a full season in 2008 and was a regular from here on in, he'd be under team control until age 29. I can see worrying about service time when you're talking about a 21- or 22-year old, but not a guy Lind's age.

I don't see what age has to do with it - if he's under your control, he's under your control.  Let me be clear though - I'm not saying what the straw man implied and that you should keep Lind down if he's the better option.  However, I am saying that if you're uncertain Lind is the best option, service team is not something that should be ignored.

I think we've played out this discussion, or at least I have.  I find that minor points are jumped on as if they were the major foundations and that our discussion has gotten sidetracked from the key issues (I'm guilty in this as well).

Case in point - my original comment that in a risk / reward analysis you can't consider the rewards without considering the risks gets turned into straw man argument about service time being the deciding factor in keeping Lind down.  This further spawns 3 or 4 more comments (including this one - again, I'm guilty as well).  None of them really have anything to do with how the decision should be made.

I can't speak for anyone else, but my comments were specifically on the topic of Lind and whether the Jays would/should factor in service time if deciding to call him up. They were not intended as a reaction to your larger thesis or to what you considered to be the ensuing straw man argument. Many comments on this site are simply a reaction to the one(s) that preceded it, not necessarily to a larger argument that initiallty precipitated those reactions.

Repeating my position, and separate entirely from the arguments of whether he is or isn't ready to help the big club and whether the Jays are legit contenders and needn't fuss over service clocks, Adam Lind is too old to even have service time be a consideration in any decision-making. By contrast, a 21-year old Evan Longoria seems to have been left in AAA specifically with his service clock in mind.

In an article about the draft class of 2005 on Baseball Prospectus(requires subscription), the following was written about Ricky Romero.

Ricky Romero, LHP, Blue Jays (No. 6 overall, $2.4M bonus)
You’ve done it plenty of times in your fantasy league, but this time the Blue Jays did it in the real thing: got caught up by positional scarcity. Still focusing on college talent at the time, Romero was the only left-handed college prospect worthy of a high pick, but the Jays went too high on him, and passed up Troy Tulowitzki to ensure they could have him. Beset by arm troubles and control issues, Romero entered the year back in Double-A for the third year, with a career ERA of 4.19, more than a hit allowed per inning, and 100 walks against 208 strikeouts. Without overpowering stuff, Romero never projected as more than a No. 3 starter to begin with. He struggled again in his first start of the year, allowing four runs in 3.2 innings.

The article was on players drafted in '05 who may be running out of time to prove themselves.  Romero was the highest drafted on the list who needed to "get it together quickly".  Wade Townsend (Devil Rays, 8th pick overall) and Mike Pelfrey (Mets, 9th Pick Overall) followed him.

CJF: You make some great points about the risk associated with Lind. I wasn't trying to pretend they didn't exist, I just knew someone else would do a better job of putting them on the table. Thanks for a thoughtful response.

At the end of the day it really comes down to a judgement call. If Lind were in the majors right now, going forward, who do you think will be more productive? Lind, or Stewart?

I did want to just comment on one point (and it is nitpicking) but saying Lind has only improved 67% of the time is unfair. Look at his progress from A-, A+, AA, AAA. He got better across the board in every category, every year, until hitting a wall in 2007. Which, as you said you don't believe, is attributed to getting into an old bad habit which he says he corrected over the off season through a visit to an old coach. I know it sounds like typical spring training optimistic chatter, but look at his track record. One of these years is not like the other - 2007 - i'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and mayhap this is where our difference of opinion on if Lind should be up now really stems from.

Lind's only big problem at the major league level was swinging at pitches well over his belt or well inside off the plate.  The only thing standing in the way of his being able to duplicate his minor league success in the majors is being able to recognize those pitches and lay off them, taking more walks or drawing better pitches for himself to drive.

I haven't been able to see him play in the minor leagues so I don't know if he just shows more patience there or has an easier time picking on minor league pitching which may not be as consistent in its location.  But pretty much the book on him in the bigs was pitch him high and hard, he can't get around on most of them and won't lay off them.