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Lansing continued their slugging ways as utility player Raul Barron led the way with four hits.  Dunedin also got into the winning way with fifteen hits.  The two senior teams, Syracuse and New Hampshire, continued to struggle.

Indianapolis 7 Syracuse 3

Josh Banks had a "Josh Banks" type start.  He pitched well for stretches but gave up his share of ground ball hits and big blows. After six up and six down to start the game Banks gave up three runs in the third on a ground ball single, a hit batter, a double and an error by Velandia.  In the sixth a ground ball single, a double and a sac fly scored another run and in the seventh a solo home run ended Banks' night.  Banks went six innings and gave up five runs, four earned, on eight hits.

The Chiefs took the lead in the second when Robinzon Diaz reached on an error and scored on a double from Sergio Santos.  Syracuse made it a 3-2 game in the fifth with a Chip Cannon walk and singles by Velandia and Joe Inglett.  After Indy made it 4-2 in the top of the sixth Adam Lind tripled to lead off the sixth, with one out Diaz doubled him home but the Chiefs could not tie the game.  Jordan DeJong gave up a two run home run in the eighth to seal the loss.

Syracuse had eight hits, Inglett had two.  Diaz threw out two base stealers.

New Hampshire 3  New Britain 4

The Fisher Cats ran their record to 0-5 but this was a close game and a tough one to lose.  AJ Wideman always allows a lot of baserunners and he did that to start the game with a lead-off walk and a single.  Wideman then did himself no favour by throwing wildly on a pickoff allowing the first run to score.  Eric Kratz, making a rare start, homered in the second inning to tie the game.

New Hampshire took the lead in the third but they could have done more.  With one out Aaron Mathews singled and Ryan Klosterman reached on an error.  Eric Nielsen singled to centre but Mathews was thrown out at home.  Josh Kreuzer followed with another single to score Klosterman but Butler flew out to end the inning.  New Hampshire had three hits and an error but only scored one run.  The lead was gone in the third when the first three hitters reached but Wideman did a great job of getting out of a "second and third with no-one out situation" without allowing another run.  He was helped by a pick-off at first base.  However Brock Peterson, who Wideman picked off, got his revenge in the fifth with a solo home run to put New Britain back in front.

New Britain added an insurance run in the eighth off Daryl Harang and Sean Stidfole.  Trailing by two in the ninth Jacob Butler led off with a triple and scored on an error that put Ryan Patterson on first.  Kratz singled to put the tying run at second but Anthony Hatch struck out, Chris Gutierrez flew out and Mathews struck out to end the game.

Wideman pitched five innings allowing three runs on six hits and two walks.  Mathews, Nielsen, Butler and Kratz each had two hits for the Fisher Cats.

Dunedin 8  Tampa 4

Dunedin scored first in the third inning, Chris Emanuele walked, Sean Shoffit singled and Brian Dopirak had an RBI single.  Robert Ray started and retired the first six hitters until the lead-off hitter in the third reached on an error by Luis Sanchez.  Ray walked the next hitter and a double then scored both runners.  The Jays reclaimed the lead in the fourth, Al Quintana singled with one out, Sanchez then walked and a wild pitch moved up the runners.  Shoffit then singled home both runners to make it 3-2 Jays.

Brad Emaus hit a two run home run in the fifth to make it 5-2, Paul Philips relieved Ray but gave up a run in the fifth.  BJ Ryan pitched a 3 up, 3 down sixth, Armando Benitez did the same in the seventh.  Dunedin added two more in the seventh on four singles and a walk and another in the eighth.  Chad Blackwell pitched the final two innings allowing one run.

The Jays had 15 hits, Brian Dopirak, Cory Patton and Al Quintana had three hits each.

South Bend 6  Lansing 9

As they have been doing all season Lansing jumped out to the lead in the first inning.  Raul Barron, playing for Justin Jackson, started the first off with a single.  Kevin Ahrens and Darin Mastroianni walked to load the bases.  CJ Ebarb hit a sac fly, John Tolisano grounded out to score another and Manny Rodriguez singled to make it 3-0.

Kyle Ginley returned to Lansing this season, presumably to work on his off-speed pitches and not rely so much on his fastball, and in this start was hit hard.  Ginley lasted five innings but the second inning was his worst, four runs allowed on four hits and an error.  Ginley gave up another run in the third and an out at home saved him in the fourth.  In his five innings Ginley allowed five runs, two earned on eight hits with seven K's.

Lansing tied the game in the fifth, again Barron tgot it going with a double; Ahrens singled him home and went to second on the throw, and Mastroianni singled Ahrens home.  Edgar Estanga shut down South Bend on one hit over three innings until the Lugnuts could put a rally together in the eighth.  Ebarb singled and John Tolisano hit his first home run of the season.  Johermyn Chavez then walked, Michael McDade, moises Sierra and Barron each singed
and then Ahrens walked to force in the fourth run of the inning.  Brian Pettway pitched the ninth and gave up one run on two hits.

Barron went 4-5 and was the only multi-hit batter.


3 star selection

3rd star - Sean Shoffit
2nd star - Edgar Estanga
1st star - Raul Barron

The Barron Leads the Lugnuts | 24 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#182481) #
As uglyone noted in the other thread, Adam Lind went 4-4 today and has started the season sizzling.  In his triple A career to date (353 PAs), he's put up a sweet .346/.422/.542 line.  He hit .310/.357/.543 in a similar number of PAs in double A a  couple of years ago and .260/.302/.434 in a similar number of PAs  in the major leagues.  He will be turning 25 in July.

It is time to bring him up.  You never know what he might do, but he does have the realistic possibility of going .300/.360/.500 from the left side this year.  He probably would not, but you won't know unless you try.



ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#182482) #
Has Lind really learned that much in 8 games to turn .251/.289/.430 (assuming strict platoon) into .300/.360/.500?

Why rush him when he was so over-matched last year?

Alex Obal - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#182483) #
It would be interesting to see how the Jays went about getting Lind at-bats if they called him up.

My solution would be to sit Overbay, Thomas and LF once a week, and Wells and Rios 0.5 times a week, against righties. That would get Lind four starts. Sitting Wells and Rios with any kind of regularity seems unlikely, but youneverknow...
Mike Green - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#182484) #
To start off, I'd probably DL Stairs, and let him heal.  By the time he comes off, there's a fair chance that one of the others is injured you work a rotation.  If not, I would give Lind 3-4 starts a week in left-field, twice with Stairs sitting, once  with Thomas (Stairs DHs), and then with occasional time off for Wells and Rios.
timpinder - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#182486) #

I'd bet that Lind would hit around .285 / .340 / .480 if he was called up right now.  An OPS of .820 is not bad, and it's better than Stewart is going to hit, probably even Stairs.  I don't think that .300 / .360 / .500 is a stretch for Lind either.  His minor league numbers are certainly there.

What's the earliest that Lind could be called up and still stay under 2 years of service time at the end of 2008 (i.e. keeping his first free agent year after 2013)? 

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#182489) #
I'd bet that Lind would hit around .285 / .340 / .480 if he was called up right now.


What's happened since last year to cause the increase of .047/.062/.080?  Did he hang out with Canseco over the winter?

For what it's worth, Zips has Lind at .276/.326/.457 for the year.  That's worse than their projection for Stewart (Stewart and Lind were projected higher than Stairs).
Ryan Day - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#182491) #
According to Lind, his swing got out of whack last year, and he spent the offseason training with an old coach getting it back together. If you believe that theory - and that's really a question of scouting, not stats - then he absolutely could be ML-ready now, though I can understand the Jays wanting to give him a few weeks at AAA to make sure.

ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#182492) #
According to Lind, his swing got out of whack last year, and he spent the offseason training with an old coach getting it back together. If you believe that theory - and that's really a question of scouting, not stats - then he absolutely could be ML-ready now, though I can understand the Jays wanting to give him a few weeks at AAA to make sure.

I'm skeptical of everything that players say about what they did in the offseason, although if people choose to believe that, I can at least understand where they're coming from.

I'm reminded of the 30-homer Hillenbrand that we were supposed to receive a few years ago after his offseason work on his swing.
Ryan Day - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#182493) #
I understand the skepticism, but this isn't a guy suddenly deciding he's going to be a power hitter - it's a guy who has always hit everywhere he's been, hit a slump, and now says he's back in the groove. And the numbers, going back to spring training, back him up so far.
ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#182494) #
I understand the skepticism, but this isn't a guy suddenly deciding he's going to be a power hitter - it's a guy who has always hit everywhere he's been, hit a slump, and now says he's back in the groove. And the numbers, going back to spring training, back him up so far.

To be accurate, 2006 is really the only year that he's hit like a top prospect.  Everyone else he's been solid, but nothing that would indicate more than 4th OF performance
Ryan Day - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#182495) #
313/375/487 in Dunedin in 2005 is a fair bit better than 4th-outfielder performance. 
TamRa - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#182496) #
What's happened since last year to cause the increase of .047/.062/.080?  Did he hang out with Canseco over the winter?

What happened between 2006 and 2007 to cause him to drop off so much?

I don't think anyone I've ever seen comment thinks Lind is, in reality, a sub-.700 hitter in the majors even now.



TamRa - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#182498) #
What's the earliest that Lind could be called up and still stay under 2 years of service time at the end of 2008 (i.e. keeping his first free agent year after 2013)?

Since his 2005 numbers were as a September call up, I don't think they count. In any case, even if they do he has less than one full season so far so he could have broke camp with the team without an implication re service time.
ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#182499) #
I disagree about Lind's performance in Dunedin being much better than 4th OF.

Maybe that was a strong pitching year for the FSL, but that was the 74th highest OPS in A+ that year.  I'm not sure what the long-term trend among those leagues is however the only other year I checked out was 1999 and that year had 4 FSL people in the top 10 OPS for A+ across all 3 leagues.

The reason I checked out 1999 was to see how another Blue Jay did in FSL - and Vernon Wells crushed it that year (he was 10th in OPS and 20 years old).  Unfortunately, we haven't had any good ML hitters who played in the FSL so I can only compare him to an all-star, which is going to make almost people come up looking bad and doesn't really tell us much.

For completeness, I did check Aaron Hill and Russ Adams and they stunk in the FSL, but they went there in their draft year, which I think is also an unfair comparison as they were getting used to the pros and wooden bats at the time.
ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#182501) #
What happened between 2006 and 2007 to cause him to drop off so much?

I don't think anyone I've ever seen comment thinks Lind is, in reality, a sub-.700 hitter in the majors even now.



He had 60 AB's in the majors during a Sept. call-up - that's a really small sample size to say that he dropped off from anything.  Also, there is a big difference as far as opposition preparation / scouting between being a September call-up and a full-time major leaguer.

Even in AAA, he only had 109 AB's, so it's not like we're not dealing with sample size issues there either.

Also, I don't think I've said that Lind "is, in reality, a sub-.700 hitter" in the majors.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if he hit right around .700,  especially since that'd be an improvement over what he did last year.  I think it makes a lot more sense for the organization to leave him in AAA until he completely blows the league away (as he is doing right now).

If you want me to peg a #, I'd guess that a safe projection for Lind right now would be .250/.300/.420.  That's not too different than his 350+ PA's in the majors.
Ryan Day - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#182504) #
Maybe that was a strong pitching year for the FSL, but that was the 74th highest OPS in A+ that year.

I assume you're looking at baseball reference's numbers, which don't seem to care about the number of at-bats. Also, the FSL has generally been a good pitcher's league - in 2005, the league leader, Matt Kemp, topped out at .918. In comparison, the California League had 4 hitters over 1.000.

Lind's .862 ranked 7th among qualified batters. Not superstar level, but still a very good prospect.
ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#182507) #
I assume you're looking at baseball reference's numbers, which don't seem to care about the number of at-bats. Also, the FSL has generally been a good pitcher's league - in 2005, the league leader, Matt Kemp, topped out at .918. In comparison, the California League had 4 hitters over 1.000.

Lind's .862 ranked 7th among qualified batters. Not superstar level, but still a very good prospect.


I was looking at baseball reference, and they do care about PA's (not at-bats) and they use 150 PA's as a minimum for OPS rankings.  That's not relevant as far as league leaders, but it does consider players who played a significant time in the league.  With promotions to and from A+, I think that's a good basis to use for players that spend some time in A+.

Even in a pitcher's league, 74th doesn't look good to me.
ChicagoJaysFan - Thursday, April 10 2008 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#182508) #
Sorry for the double post, but "doesn't look good" is too strong of a choice of words.

Doesn't look like a top-level prospect is more in-line with what I meant.

TamRa - Friday, April 11 2008 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#182511) #
To be accurate, 2006 is really the only year that he's hit like a top prospect.  Everyone else he's been solid, but nothing that would indicate more than 4th OF performance

His lowest ever OPS in the minors was .840 in his first season.

Furthermore, he improved every season until 2007. You set pretty darn high standards for a 4th OF my friend.


TamRa - Friday, April 11 2008 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#182512) #
Maybe that was a strong pitching year for the FSL, but that was the 74th highest OPS in A+ that year.

Where are you getting 74th?


According to the page here:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/bat_leaders.cgi?yid=2005&lvl=A%20&lid=FSL&sort=OPS

Lind was 14th in the FSL in 2005 in OPS.

Take out players with under 250 AB and he's seventh.

Take out the two 24 year olds and the 29 year old (who had sufficent ABs) and he's 4th.

What's the source for 74th?



ChicagoJaysFan - Friday, April 11 2008 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#182516) #
Where are you getting 74th?


According to the page here:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/bat_leaders.cgi?yid=2005&lvl=A%20&lid=FSL&sort=OPS

Lind was 14th in the FSL in 2005 in OPS.


I thought I had said so earlier, but I'm using baseball-reference and talking about players in A+, not FSL.
ChicagoJaysFan - Friday, April 11 2008 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#182517) #
His lowest ever OPS in the minors was .840 in his first season.

Furthermore, he improved every season until 2007. You set pretty darn high standards for a 4th OF my friend.


Ok, I wasn't talking about his merits as a prospect overall, I said that 2006 was the only season he ever hit like a prospect that's anything other than a 4th OF.

With that, I'll refer to the bullpen wiki at baseball-reference, which says that he was the #13 prospect in the FSL when he was there.  That's roughly being the #35-40 prospect at A+ (assuming prospects are somewhat evenly distributed across Florida, California, and Carolina at the A+ level).  That's 4th OF range.

I think that Jays fans in general have forgotten what OF prospects actually perform like through most of their minor league career.
Mike Green - Friday, April 11 2008 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#182551) #
CJF,

It's not only Jays' fans who think highly of Lind. Keith Law and John Sickels are on board. 

ChicagoJaysFan - Friday, April 11 2008 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#182559) #
CJF,

It's not only Jays' fans who think highly of Lind. Keith Law and John Sickels are on board.


I think I have either misled you (and others) or been misinterpreted. I'll condense what I've said to a few sentences so that hopefully I can explain where I'm coming from.
  1. I do think Lind has the potential to be an average / slightly-above average LF (mean OPS+ of 107, median of 101 according to this).
  2. This is entirely based on his performance in 2006, as his performance other years make me think a future platoon player.
  3. I don't think he's earned / proven ready for a major league spot right now.  This is because of his performance last year (in AAA and ML) and the fact that 2006 was his only good year.  Had he torn up every league he played in (like Howie Kendrick) then I would be likely to think that maybe he was ready now and last year was just a blip.
I've been dragged down other paths to defend one or two of those points which may have misled you as to my actual thoughts.
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