After beating down everyone's favorite perennial underdog team, the Jays look to keep the beat going against Boston's opponents in the Japan series, the Oakland A's. They'll face Chad Gaudin, two rookie lefties and one closer with huge splits.
Oakland is 3-4. The A's took two of three from Cleveland this weekend, missing out on the sweep when Joe Blanton let a 1-0 lead slip away in the seventh inning Sunday. But they seem to be fully recovered from the Japan experience, and their lineup is much better on paper than people give it credit for. They also have a surplus of experienced, talented relievers, much more than you'd expect for a team that's supposed to flounder 10 games below .500 this year, which will help them immensely if they contend, and serve as useful trade bait if they don't. I think this is a team you want to face sooner rather than later, because they're only going to get more annoying as Travis Buck, Daric Barton and Kurt Suzuki gain experience.
The Jays won't have to deal with Rich Harden tonight - he's scratched due to "soreness in the lat area."
So tonight, it'll be Chad Gaudin. Old friend. Toughest matchup this series, because he's a righty. Groundball pitcher. Disorienting slider. Fastball around 90. Changeup in the mid-80s, because you need three pitches to be a starter, so the story goes. Pitches to contact: 3.67 P/PA last year. Pronounced splits: 0.72 K/BB vs LH, 3.28 vs RH last year. Gaudin will be making his first start of the year - he's been recovering from the hip and foot surgeries he underwent in the offseason. Apparently, it's not a complete certainty that he'll be starting today, but he is the most likely starter, and he'll be in Toronto for sure.
The Wednesday starter is up in the air. The first rumored name was Lenny DiNardo. Why does anyone even consider throwing this guy at the Jays? I don't understand. Trashmaster. Slow, funky cutter in the low 80s, which is described by Kalktron as a sinker, by Fangraphs as a fastball, and by DiNardo himself as a cutter. If he makes it through five innings it'll be because he walked a ton of guys and then stranded them. He's another groundball pitcher, though, and he's pretty good at holding basestealers (in 212.2 career innings, 10 have tried, 5 have failed). Will always own Lyle Overbay: 0-7, 0 BB, 3 K. Rest of the team, not so much. Aaron Hill is 7-10 with 2 homers and 2 walks.
Anyway, now the word is that it'll probably be 24-year-old lefty Greg Smith, formerly of the Tucson Sidewinders and acquired from Arizona in the Haren trade. He has never pitched in the majors. Minor League Splits doesn't think he existed last year so his line in the chart is somewhat incomplete. Sickels has him as a C+ and ranked 14th among Oakland prospects. Here's a video of Smith. Its description reads: "Smith is a finesse southpaw with a high-80s fastball, but has a solid curveball and changeup. Smith was originally drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the sixth round of the 2005 First-Year Player Draft out of Louisiana State University." I believe it.
Thursday, it's Dana Eveland, another lefty acquired in the Haren trade. He sounds like a tricky matchup. Eveland was a highly-regarded prospect before he suffered a finger injury last year that limited him to 27.2 innings in the minors. In his first start this year, Eveland mowed down Cleveland, holding them to one run over seven innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. The write-up on that game claims that Eveland's fastball was in the mid-90s; that sounds a bit farfetched. Fangraphs has him around 90 on average. Eveland has a nasty slider, a curve and a change. In 2006, his last full season, he held AA lefties to a rather pathetic .122/.234/.146 line with 35.7% K and 70.5% GB. That's pretty dominant. I would definitely consider starting Rod Barajas at first. Actually, maybe not - he's only played 19.1 innings there in his career. But he's never made an error, and because Marcum is not a groundball pitcher, the importance of infield defense is lower than usual. Point is, the lineup should be stacked with righties.
Oakland's bullpen is strong. They added a couple of fresh faces this offseason. They Rule 5'd 23-year-old righty Fernando Hernandez out of the White Sox organization, and resurrected Keith Foulke, who was retired for all of last year. Foulke has rewarded the A's early with six strikeouts in five innings, no walks, and only three hits. His funky bow-and-arrow delivery and effective circle change made him a top-shelf closer for a few years, most notably for the 2004 Red Sox. He's also a colossal flyball pitcher. Do not fear the double play with Foulke on the mound.
Alan Embree and Santiago Casilla form a hard-throwing setup duo. Casilla found the range on his hard fastball and nasty slider last year, posting the best K/BB rate of his career and sticking in the A's bullpen throughout the second half as a high-leverage contributor. Embree served as Oakland's closer when Huston Street went down. 204 of the 284 batters he faced were righties, so at least last year he was not used as a LOOGY. He had a 139-point OPS split last year, though, so maybe he will be soon.
And, of course, there's The Man: Huston Street. He is the face of the team, according to a picture on the front page of the A's official site. Street has always posted excellent K/BB numbers and historically been difficult to homer off. He doesn't throw terribly hard - his sinker tends to be around 91 - but his eccentric delivery makes up for it. When pitching from the windup, he takes a huge step back, sort of shields his face with his left arm, and then delivers the ball from a unique sidearm-ish angle. His sidearm slider is a lethal out pitch. Especially against righties. I don't think there is a righty reliever in the game I'd rather have on the mound to shut down Rios, Thomas, Wells and Hill in the late innings than this guy. Not K-Rod. Not Putz. Not Papelbon. Not Nathan. Not even Rivera. Street's career OPS split against righties beats them all by at least 50 points.
Let's play Everyone's Favorite Game:
Pitcher W is Pedro Martinez vs RHB, career. That's a 4.7 K/BB and a .592 OPS.
Pitcher X is Randy Johnson vs LHB, career. That's a 4.1 K/BB and a .575 OPS.
Pitcher Y is Huston Street vs RHB, career. That's a 7.0 K/BB and a .459 OPS.
I'd much rather face Pitcher Z (Street against lefties) than any of those guys. Especially Pitcher Y. That guy scares the crap out of me. (And yeah, I know Unit faced a ridiculously high standard of lefty batting, because any remotely benchable lefty was benched against him. But Pitcher Y is starting to head down that road - I hope, at least, when he faces the Jays...)
Seriously, though. If Street comes in for save situation, all lefthanded batters within a 50-mile radius must be thrown at him. Matt Stairs will be on the bench in the last two games because he's platooning. Gregg Zaun might be alongside him both times for the same reason. If Street comes in for a save and any righties are due up, Stairs and Zaun have to pinch-hit for the two weakest righties assuming there are enough defenders to cover it. Maybe even if there aren't. I'd rather see Buck Coats face Street than Shannon Stewart, Rod Barajas (Rod is actually 3-5 vs Street, 3 singles, so maybe he gets a pass), Marco Scutaro, David Eckstein, John McDonald, and probably even Wells if he's leading the inning off. With one or two out, if your only realistic hope to tie the game is a homer, it does make sense to leave the righty in.
Did I mention two of the 15 homers Street has given up were to Matt Stairs and Lyle Overbay?
Or that he's already given up three homers in three innings this year, one to Travis Hafner, one to lefty AAAA outfielder Brandon Moss and one to Jason Varitek's bad side?
Or that this happens every year?
This should be common knowledge. I'm fairly sure it is, but I don't think people are fully aware of just how unhittable Street has been against righthanded batters.
I was going to post my first pitch-f/x analysis ever in this scout, on the subject of how to get Jack Cust out. I figured this might be something worth knowing. Cust is Oakland's best hitter, at least for now. He has big power, a megaton of strikeouts, and several kilotons of walks. His results are basically those of BOP machine Jim Thome except taken to ridiculously outlandish extremes. So how do you get him out? My answer: throw breaking balls! Then I realized Mike Fast at the Hardball Times had already done it in absolutely amazing detail, so I'm just going to link to him and be done with it.
Here's his conclusion: "If you're a right-handed pitcher, and you really must throw a fastball to Jack Cust, keep it low and away where you have some margin for error and good prospects for a strike. You might do okay if you work the other edges of the zone with pinpoint control, but if you miss there, he will often make you pay either by taking the pitch for a ball or hitting it well. Avoid the center of the strike zone at almost all costs. Throwing the fastball there is worse than throwing it for a ball, on average."
One interesting tidbit: when Cust made contact with high-and-away changeups from righties, he hit .500 with a .962 SLG. Shaun Marcum, you've been warned. A.J. Burnett, might want to throw at least 60% curveballs to this guy. It'll be interesting to see if Cust can adjust to the league's adjustments to him this year. He's certainly going to get a challenging test in this series when he faces three of the Jays' four horsemen.
Infirmary - Eric Chavez is out as he struggles to fully recover from back surgery; Jack Hannahan, coming off a minor-league career year, is the everyday third baseman.
The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100. These are 2007 stats.
Oakland is 3-4. The A's took two of three from Cleveland this weekend, missing out on the sweep when Joe Blanton let a 1-0 lead slip away in the seventh inning Sunday. But they seem to be fully recovered from the Japan experience, and their lineup is much better on paper than people give it credit for. They also have a surplus of experienced, talented relievers, much more than you'd expect for a team that's supposed to flounder 10 games below .500 this year, which will help them immensely if they contend, and serve as useful trade bait if they don't. I think this is a team you want to face sooner rather than later, because they're only going to get more annoying as Travis Buck, Daric Barton and Kurt Suzuki gain experience.
The Jays won't have to deal with Rich Harden tonight - he's scratched due to "soreness in the lat area."
So tonight, it'll be Chad Gaudin. Old friend. Toughest matchup this series, because he's a righty. Groundball pitcher. Disorienting slider. Fastball around 90. Changeup in the mid-80s, because you need three pitches to be a starter, so the story goes. Pitches to contact: 3.67 P/PA last year. Pronounced splits: 0.72 K/BB vs LH, 3.28 vs RH last year. Gaudin will be making his first start of the year - he's been recovering from the hip and foot surgeries he underwent in the offseason. Apparently, it's not a complete certainty that he'll be starting today, but he is the most likely starter, and he'll be in Toronto for sure.
The Wednesday starter is up in the air. The first rumored name was Lenny DiNardo. Why does anyone even consider throwing this guy at the Jays? I don't understand. Trashmaster. Slow, funky cutter in the low 80s, which is described by Kalktron as a sinker, by Fangraphs as a fastball, and by DiNardo himself as a cutter. If he makes it through five innings it'll be because he walked a ton of guys and then stranded them. He's another groundball pitcher, though, and he's pretty good at holding basestealers (in 212.2 career innings, 10 have tried, 5 have failed). Will always own Lyle Overbay: 0-7, 0 BB, 3 K. Rest of the team, not so much. Aaron Hill is 7-10 with 2 homers and 2 walks.
Anyway, now the word is that it'll probably be 24-year-old lefty Greg Smith, formerly of the Tucson Sidewinders and acquired from Arizona in the Haren trade. He has never pitched in the majors. Minor League Splits doesn't think he existed last year so his line in the chart is somewhat incomplete. Sickels has him as a C+ and ranked 14th among Oakland prospects. Here's a video of Smith. Its description reads: "Smith is a finesse southpaw with a high-80s fastball, but has a solid curveball and changeup. Smith was originally drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the sixth round of the 2005 First-Year Player Draft out of Louisiana State University." I believe it.
Thursday, it's Dana Eveland, another lefty acquired in the Haren trade. He sounds like a tricky matchup. Eveland was a highly-regarded prospect before he suffered a finger injury last year that limited him to 27.2 innings in the minors. In his first start this year, Eveland mowed down Cleveland, holding them to one run over seven innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. The write-up on that game claims that Eveland's fastball was in the mid-90s; that sounds a bit farfetched. Fangraphs has him around 90 on average. Eveland has a nasty slider, a curve and a change. In 2006, his last full season, he held AA lefties to a rather pathetic .122/.234/.146 line with 35.7% K and 70.5% GB. That's pretty dominant. I would definitely consider starting Rod Barajas at first. Actually, maybe not - he's only played 19.1 innings there in his career. But he's never made an error, and because Marcum is not a groundball pitcher, the importance of infield defense is lower than usual. Point is, the lineup should be stacked with righties.
Oakland's bullpen is strong. They added a couple of fresh faces this offseason. They Rule 5'd 23-year-old righty Fernando Hernandez out of the White Sox organization, and resurrected Keith Foulke, who was retired for all of last year. Foulke has rewarded the A's early with six strikeouts in five innings, no walks, and only three hits. His funky bow-and-arrow delivery and effective circle change made him a top-shelf closer for a few years, most notably for the 2004 Red Sox. He's also a colossal flyball pitcher. Do not fear the double play with Foulke on the mound.
Alan Embree and Santiago Casilla form a hard-throwing setup duo. Casilla found the range on his hard fastball and nasty slider last year, posting the best K/BB rate of his career and sticking in the A's bullpen throughout the second half as a high-leverage contributor. Embree served as Oakland's closer when Huston Street went down. 204 of the 284 batters he faced were righties, so at least last year he was not used as a LOOGY. He had a 139-point OPS split last year, though, so maybe he will be soon.
And, of course, there's The Man: Huston Street. He is the face of the team, according to a picture on the front page of the A's official site. Street has always posted excellent K/BB numbers and historically been difficult to homer off. He doesn't throw terribly hard - his sinker tends to be around 91 - but his eccentric delivery makes up for it. When pitching from the windup, he takes a huge step back, sort of shields his face with his left arm, and then delivers the ball from a unique sidearm-ish angle. His sidearm slider is a lethal out pitch. Especially against righties. I don't think there is a righty reliever in the game I'd rather have on the mound to shut down Rios, Thomas, Wells and Hill in the late innings than this guy. Not K-Rod. Not Putz. Not Papelbon. Not Nathan. Not even Rivera. Street's career OPS split against righties beats them all by at least 50 points.
Let's play Everyone's Favorite Game:
| PA | K% | BB% | HR% | BA | OBP | SLG | |
| Pitcher W | 4586 | 30.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | .201 | .264 | .328 |
| Pitcher X | 1793 | 28.7 | 7.0 | 1.3 | .200 | .281 | .294 |
| Pitcher Y | 443 | 25.1 | 3.6 | 0.7 | .185 | .219 | .240 |
| Pitcher Z | 369 | 25.2 | 9.8 | 3.3 | .246 | .321 | .422 |
Pitcher W is Pedro Martinez vs RHB, career. That's a 4.7 K/BB and a .592 OPS.
Pitcher X is Randy Johnson vs LHB, career. That's a 4.1 K/BB and a .575 OPS.
Pitcher Y is Huston Street vs RHB, career. That's a 7.0 K/BB and a .459 OPS.
I'd much rather face Pitcher Z (Street against lefties) than any of those guys. Especially Pitcher Y. That guy scares the crap out of me. (And yeah, I know Unit faced a ridiculously high standard of lefty batting, because any remotely benchable lefty was benched against him. But Pitcher Y is starting to head down that road - I hope, at least, when he faces the Jays...)
Seriously, though. If Street comes in for save situation, all lefthanded batters within a 50-mile radius must be thrown at him. Matt Stairs will be on the bench in the last two games because he's platooning. Gregg Zaun might be alongside him both times for the same reason. If Street comes in for a save and any righties are due up, Stairs and Zaun have to pinch-hit for the two weakest righties assuming there are enough defenders to cover it. Maybe even if there aren't. I'd rather see Buck Coats face Street than Shannon Stewart, Rod Barajas (Rod is actually 3-5 vs Street, 3 singles, so maybe he gets a pass), Marco Scutaro, David Eckstein, John McDonald, and probably even Wells if he's leading the inning off. With one or two out, if your only realistic hope to tie the game is a homer, it does make sense to leave the righty in.
Did I mention two of the 15 homers Street has given up were to Matt Stairs and Lyle Overbay?
Or that he's already given up three homers in three innings this year, one to Travis Hafner, one to lefty AAAA outfielder Brandon Moss and one to Jason Varitek's bad side?
Or that this happens every year?
| PA | K% | BB% | HR% | BA | OBP | SLG | |
| 2005 | 170 | 25.3 | 5.3 | 0.6 | .172 | .225 | .210 |
| 2006 | 162 | 22.2 | 3.1 | 0.6 | .211 | .236 | .276 |
| 2007 | 102 | 30.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | .162 | .178 | .222 |
This should be common knowledge. I'm fairly sure it is, but I don't think people are fully aware of just how unhittable Street has been against righthanded batters.
I was going to post my first pitch-f/x analysis ever in this scout, on the subject of how to get Jack Cust out. I figured this might be something worth knowing. Cust is Oakland's best hitter, at least for now. He has big power, a megaton of strikeouts, and several kilotons of walks. His results are basically those of BOP machine Jim Thome except taken to ridiculously outlandish extremes. So how do you get him out? My answer: throw breaking balls! Then I realized Mike Fast at the Hardball Times had already done it in absolutely amazing detail, so I'm just going to link to him and be done with it.
Here's his conclusion: "If you're a right-handed pitcher, and you really must throw a fastball to Jack Cust, keep it low and away where you have some margin for error and good prospects for a strike. You might do okay if you work the other edges of the zone with pinpoint control, but if you miss there, he will often make you pay either by taking the pitch for a ball or hitting it well. Avoid the center of the strike zone at almost all costs. Throwing the fastball there is worse than throwing it for a ball, on average."
One interesting tidbit: when Cust made contact with high-and-away changeups from righties, he hit .500 with a .962 SLG. Shaun Marcum, you've been warned. A.J. Burnett, might want to throw at least 60% curveballs to this guy. It'll be interesting to see if Cust can adjust to the league's adjustments to him this year. He's certainly going to get a challenging test in this series when he faces three of the Jays' four horsemen.
Infirmary - Eric Chavez is out as he struggles to fully recover from back surgery; Jack Hannahan, coming off a minor-league career year, is the everyday third baseman.
The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100. These are 2007 stats.
