I am a big fan of both of these deals. Now doesn't Olney look silly?

The Hill contract is absolutely fantastic for the team. I'm shocked that they're able to control him for so long, and with such a small guarantee ($12MM).

Finally JP is getting on board with the Club options.

The Globe is reporting that the Hill option years are not year-to-year.  The Jays will have to decide whether they want to extend him for 1 year at $8MM, 2 at $16MM, or 3 at $24MM.

Details on the options on Hill are in the first link you attached:

"Second baseman Aaron Hill inked a $12-million, four-year contract that starts this season and contains options for 2012, 2013 and 2014. The options are not year-to-year — the Blue Jays must extend him for either one season at $8 million, two at $16 million, or three at $24 million"

 

If I'm reading it right, it sounds like it's more accurately a 5 year deal for $20 million with the club option for the last 2 years (and a 0, 1, or 2 decision at that time).  The main difference being that my understanding based on that quote is that 2012 is going to be for $8 million regardless of what the Jays do.

Sorry, my wording was wrong - the decision isn't at the end of 2012, it's at 2011, but 2012 is still guaranteed.

Wow.  I was wrong about the ability of Ricciardi to keep his young players.  The team may have some dry years in and around 2010, but between the 2007 draft and these signings, things should not be bad for too long.

The terms of the Hill contract are, as other have noted, favourable to the club.  That's what happens when you commit early enough (as the Cardinals did with Pujols and the Tigers did with Granderson).  In any event, I am delighted. 

Thanks Ducey.

Both very reasonable contracts. This really sends the right message around baseball--that the Jays are committed to winning and building around a core of young talent. Now JP can get to work figuring out who will the team's SS of the future will be...

Dustin McGowan - You're next.

With Rios and Wells locked up, the future of the Blue Jays left field is between Snider and Lind.  If Snider is 2 full seasons away (including the one we are engaging in at present), does Lind play left next season, pad his stats and then get traded away?  

I love both of these signings.  I think by 2012 we will be looking at the Aaron Hill deal as one of the best moves our then former G.M pulled off.  What will J.P's replacement, Marty Peavy, do to keep this team strong through to 2020?

<i>If Snider is 2 full seasons away (including the one we are engaging in at present), does Lind play left next season, pad his stats and then get traded away? </i>

Lind could move full-time into the DH spot at that point, as Thomas will be gone/retired.

 

So, based on years of service...

Rios is covered for $4.835 this year (3+ years of service, 2nd arbitration year) and an average of just under $11 million per year for 3 arbitration years and 3 free agent years plus an option for his 4th free agent year. It is entirely possible, if he has a good season, that he'd have been making close to the $11 million average in '09 via arbitration so this is amazing. This is his age 27 year so he is signed for ages 28-33 with an option for 34, or basically the rest of his prime and just 1 guarenteed year in the decline phase (after age 32 players as a group drop fast).

Hill is a year behind Rios in experience but wasn't a super-2 like Rios was thus is cheap this season. His contract covers him for his last non-arbitration year (this) and 3 years of arbitration for $12 million, which could be what he would be getting in one year by the end of it. His first 3 years of free agency are also covered at $8 mil per which could be quite the bargin by that point. The locked in $12 million covers ages 26-29 while the $24/3 year part covers ages 30-32. In other words Hill is a Jay for his entire prime with the Jays having a nice opt-out clause just as Hill would hit the stage he'd be unlikely to improve during (age 30+) and a locked in salary for his final 3 prime years if he is solid still.

Well done JP. Well done.

Great deals for both these guys, as they look like the best all around players on this team.

For the uniformed, what did Olney say?

I'm really impressed by these signings.  I can't really think of anything not to like about them.

There is really little downside.  Even if Rios doesn't improve much, you'd have to figure there'd be a good chance he'd command 10 or 11 mil a year by 2010.  And if Rios improves (or turns into a superstar) this deal looks incredible.

Also, with the options in Hill's contract, it's extremely low risk.  If he develops into a bonafide star or superstar, his deal will also be a huge steal.

Also, with the options in Hill's contract, it's extremely low risk.  If he develops into a bonafide star or superstar, his deal will also be a huge steal.

It will be tough for Hill to be a superstar.  2B has a lot of high-end talent right now that is (mostly) younger than Hill. Phillips, Utley, Roberts, Cano, Pedroia, and Polanco are all guys that I'd say are currently at least a notch above him and likely to remain that way (outside of Polanco). Hill is in that next group with Uggla and Kinsler and the gap is pretty big for them to move up.

I would not mention Pedroia with the likes of Utley, Phillips, Roberts and Cano.  He did have a good year, but Eric Hinske had a pretty good rookie season as well. And his power doesn't match up with those players as well.

I would not mention Pedroia with the likes of Utley, Phillips, Roberts and Cano.  He did have a good year, but Eric Hinske had a pretty good rookie season as well. And his power doesn't match up with those players as well.

Pedroia still had a better year offensively than Hill has ever had and is 2 years younger.  If he's not in the same class as the others, it shows how far Hill has to go to be a start or superstar.

As far as the comparison with Hinske, Pedroia can hit both lefties and righties and plays a better defense at a more important position. I don't think the comparison is all that fair.  Even in his solid rookie year, was still a guy that couldn't do anything to lefties.

First of all I agree that Hill has a far way to go to reach superstar status. IMO he doesn't have superstar tools, he's more of the solid above average kind of player, I expect him to pretty much put up production similiar to last years stats for the the next 5-7 years he may get his average up around .315 or so on a good season.  I mainly just dont like Pedroia and did not like to see him put into a class with Utley and Phillips and Cano. Pedroia is still unproven.   As for the Hinske, i was not comparing the players I was simply using him as an example, i hope like heck he follows Hinske's path, but i was simply just saying that he needs to establish himself with a repeat performance, as there have been many one year wonder type players.

First of all I agree that Hill has a far way to go to reach superstar status. IMO he doesn't have superstar tools, he's more of the solid above average kind of player, I expect him to pretty much put up production similiar to last years stats for the the next 5-7 years he may get his average up around .315 or so on a good season.  I mainly just dont like Pedroia and did not like to see him put into a class with Utley and Phillips and Cano. Pedroia is still unproven.   As for the Hinske, i was not comparing the players I was simply using him as an example, i hope like heck he follows Hinske's path, but i was simply just saying that he needs to establish himself with a repeat performance, as there have been many one year wonder type players.

All I'm saying, and I'll ever said, is Pedroia is better than Hill.  I'll ask you to read the sentence again:

Phillips, Utley, Roberts, Cano, Pedroia, and Polanco are all guys that I'd say are currently at least a notch above him (Hill) and likely to remain that way (outside of Polanco)

I'm not interested in discussing if Pedroia is currently a superstar or not as that wasn't really my point and I'm not a Red Sox fan.

There have been a lot of questions about Lind's future with the Jays.  I mentioned it in another thread but the reliable Jeff Blair was pretty clear in his latest blog when he wrote, "Adam Lind will be the Opening Day left-fielder in 2009".

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/baseball

It's impossible to tell, there may be a "dry" period starting in 2011, but I'm optimistic.  The team should feature a good mix of experience (Thigpen/Diaz C, LF/1B Lind, CF Wells, RF Rios, 2B Hill, DH Snider), with a mix of young talent (Ahrens/Fuenmayor 3B, Jackson SS, Chavez 1B/LF, Jeroloman/Collins/Arencibia C, and Tolisano/Eiland OF).

I was very pleased to hear Ricciardi say today that he'd also like to extend Halladay.  Having Halladay and McGowan at the front of the rotation for several years would be nice.  I'm sure at least one of the three former first-round lefties will pan out too.  I'm happy to see that the Jays seem to be keeping their home grown players.

 

Phillips, Utley, Roberts, Cano, Pedroia, and Polanco are all guys that I'd say are currently at least a notch above him and likely to remain that way (outside of Polanco).

I disagree with Hill's pecking order on this list.

Brandon Phillips is a year older than Hill. Hill's age-25 season (OPS+ of 107) matches Phillips' age-26 season (OPS+ of 105). Given the age difference, I'd take Hill over Phillips.

Brian Roberts is currently in his age-30 season. His OPS+ in his age-29 season was 112, though OPS+ does, admittedly, under-represent OBP, Roberts' primary skill, so his 112 is not as close to Hill's 107 as would appear. Still, second basemen don't tend to age particularly well. Roberts may out-perform Hill in 2008, but I wouldn't hold my breath for any season thereafter.

Polanco outperformed Hill in 2007, but as a 31-year old. I would sooner gamble on Hill's age-26 season over Polanco's age-32 season.

Pedroia is a year and a half younger than Hill. He had a terrific age-23/24 season (OPS+ of 112) but he did dramatically exceed expectations (so it's not like anyone is expecting the same numbers in 2008). If neither Pedroia nor Hill ever improved their offense from their 2007 seasons, an argument could still be made that Hill's edge on defense would be more than enough to claw back Pedroia's edge on offense. It's not clear, moving forward, who will be the more valuable second baseman of the two. I don't see it as a given that it will be Pedroia.

Utley is a superstar, plain and simple. And Cano is on his way. I don't think Hill will ever be close to either of these two.

If Hill is never going to be a superstar, and I don't believe he will, he will nonetheless be a highly valuable asset, providing solid offense while playing top notch defense at a key defensive position. He is underrated now and will likely continue to be underrated. Such is the fate of players with his skill profile. His contract suggests that he will be underpaid, at least by my reckoning, even recognizing that we are talking about three arb years rather than three FA years.

Unless I'm forgetting someone, I'd suggest that Hill may well be the third best second baseman in baseball starting in 2009, albeit quite dramatically behind Utley and Cano.

Timpinder, don't forget that we've also got money coming off the books in the next few years.  With the people you listed, Rolen, Burnett, and Thomas are 3 big contracts that are missing.  Those $$ can be invested to fill in at any spots where the in-house solutions aren't there.

Queue the Jays not taking advantage of their market talk.

Queue the Jays not taking advantage of their market talk.

Sorry, it's a bad habit of mine to type phonetically - I don't even know how that's possible.  Anyway, of course I meant "Cue the Jays not taking advantage of their market talk."

If Hill is never going to be a superstar, and I don't believe he will, he will nonetheless be a highly valuable asset, providing solid offense while playing top notch defense at a key defensive position.

I agree entirely and did not mean to imply otherwise.  But I still stand behind most of the guys on my list.

I'll just follow-up on the two that I think I have the most to add about.

Brian Roberts is currently in his age-30 season. His OPS+ in his age-29 season was 112, though OPS+ does, admittedly, under-represent OBP, Roberts' primary skill, so his 112 is not as close to Hill's 107 as would appear. Still, second basemen don't tend to age particularly well. Roberts may out-perform Hill in 2008, but I wouldn't hold my breath for any season thereafter.

His stolen base ability (50 last year) provides a lot of value as well, which is why I place him a lot higher than Hill and it also makes me think he won't age as poorly as would normally be expected.

Brandon Phillips is a year older than Hill. Hill's age-25 season (OPS+ of 107) matches Phillips' age-26 season (OPS+ of 105). Given the age difference, I'd take Hill over Phillips.

For Phlilips and Hill, I didn't look up OPS+, so I concede the point to you there.  Although I'm still stunned.

Initially, I just glanced at the overall numbers for those two and assumed they couldn't be as close as OPS+ calculates.  I'm actually surprised how much they say Phillips got a bump due to favorable conditions.  Phillips .288/.331/.485 is clearly a lot better than Hill's .291/.333/.459 and their defense is pretty similar, so I gave the nod to Phillips.  I'm stunned that the ballpark difference would be that huge.

CJF, I'd like to see Thomas off the books next year.  His days are numbered and even with last year's stats it's hard to argue he's worth $10 million.  Snider and Lind might not pan out, who knows?  But if things go well, I would LOVE to see the Jays out-bid all others for Furcal this off-season to bridge the gap to Jackson, or another SS prospect they may sign in the interim.  Imagine a lineup of Furcal-Rios-Wells-Snider-Rolen-Overbay-Hill-Lind-Thigpen/Diaz the next couple of years.  Great defense too.

CJF, I'd like to see Thomas off the books next year.  His days are numbered and even with last year's stats it's hard to argue he's worth $10 million.  Snider and Lind might not pan out, who knows?  But if things go well, I would LOVE to see the Jays out-bid all others for Furcal this off-season to bridge the gap to Jackson, or another SS prospect they may sign in the interim.  Imagine a lineup of Furcal-Rios-Wells-Snider-Rolen-Overbay-Hill-Lind-Thigpen/Diaz the next couple of years.  Great defense too.

I like the idea of signing Furcal ... I hope that we're a player in that next year.  My only concern is that to me he also screams Julio Lugo #2 (right down to playing for the Dodgers before free agency).  If things don't get crazy (with Jeter and Lugo having Boston and NYY spoken for at short, there's a possibility bidding won't be too bad), I think he could be a good fit for a few years.

I guess I'm in the minority, but I don't have a problem with last year's Thomas at $10 million.  He was arguably the 3rd best DH of 14 last year:

Behind: Ortiz, Thome
Tie: Sheffield
Ahead of: Giambi, Huff, Norton, Hafner, Cirillo, Butler, Hillenbrand, Vidro, Piazza, and Sosa

Names I took were the DH's listed for each team for 2007 on baseball-reference.

That doesn't necessarily mean that we're getting full value for the $10 million, but considering the supply out there, I think we're not too far off.

While the question may be can he do it next year, I'd rather we be certain that we have someone better or else can get equivalent value at other positions before shedding him.

I think these deals cement JP Ricciardi as a top 5 GM, in my opinion.

Yes, he's had some questionable deals in the past but none of them were a pure bust.
He's done very well on contract extensions. Vernon Wells' first 5 year deal has paid remendous dividends. The jury is still out on his 7 year deal. If he opts out after 4 years, it's a deal flat out! But, yes, his performance will determine if those latter years at $20 mil will be worth it.

Ricciardi's successfully kept Halladay in the fold for all these years at below market levels. He went after Burnett and despite AJ's health(or rather pseudo-health), the deal is worth it - even if he opts out!

Signing Rios and Hill at very affordable rates shows commitment and moreover the ability of a GM able to sell his philosophy to his players.

He drafted Marcum and Litsch who are contributing members to our rotation. Key acquisitions like Accardo, Downs, Tallet and Ryan have shored up the relief corps.

Clearly, not very many GM's have done what he's done off the field to put such a good team(on paper) together.

The rest is up to boys in blue! This ride's fuelled up, we're ready to take off!

All I'm saying, and I'll ever said, is Pedroia is better than Hill

And what I am saying is Pedroia has not yet established his talent level yet and I am not willing to say he is better than Hill until he outperforms him on a regular basis. I think you may have been unconsciously influenced by all the Redsox hype out there on the net.  From simply watching them play it looks to me like Hill will have more power and better defense, with pedroia having a little better strike zone judgement. I'll take Hill.

 

 

It will be tough for Hill to be a superstar.  2B has a lot of high-end talent right now that is (mostly) younger than Hill. Phillips, Utley, Roberts, Cano, Pedroia, and Polanco are all guys that I'd say are currently at least a notch above him and likely to remain that way (outside of Polanco). Hill is in that next group with Uggla and Kinsler and the gap is pretty big for them to move up.

I think you overstate this a bit. Utley clearly is the giant among men here, but putting Pedoria in the top group based on last year is to wildly over-rate him, and not only Polanco but Roberts are over 30 and subject to aging. A lot of people argue Phillips is over-rated and a benificiary of his home ballpark as well.

If Cano is the Cano of 2006, then yes, he's in the upper echelon, but the difference in Cano 2007 and Hill 2007 is very marginal. I don't think there's any reason to think Hill doesn't have a decent shot at being one of the top 5 2B in the game over the next 7 years.

Rickie Weeks is one young 2B with superstar potential, but he is still very unproven. 2B is much deeper in talent than it has been in the past,  there are those already mentioned, add to that rickie weeks, howie kendrick, jeff kent(aging) kelly johnson, Hudson, Matsui, etc... Its definitely not the weak hole it has been in the past.

 

One big thing now is we have 3 guys locked up into the 2014 season (potentially) leaving 6 positions to be filled for that time frame.  Two of the three should be above average for their positions while Wells could be.  2 of the 3 positions (CF/2B) are defense first with guys who are either ex-GG'ers or potential ones who should have OPS+ of 100+.  The 3rd position (RF) has a potential GG'er with solid offense (120 OPS+). 

This is a very, very good spot to build from.  I can't emphasis that enough.  Having 3 key positions, 2 up the middle, with guys who are upper half in both offense and defense for their positions and are signed for their prime (25-32) years is a fantastic position to be in. 

The previous big signing, Delgado, was great to have, but was at a position where you can't shift him down from much at all.  At least Wells & Rios can shift to LF, RF, 1B, DH if needed while Hill can shift to 3B/1B/LF/DH without too much trouble.  They may not hit well enough for those positions but at least can be moved if needed.

We have two prospects for LF/1B/DH in Lind & Snider and a couple of quality catching prospects.  Now the Jays need a solid prospect for 3B & SS to finish off the offense from now until 2014.  A nice situation to be in.

Pitching?  We have Halladay signed until 2010 and an extension should be simple to do as both seem to want it.  McGowan, Marcum, and Janssen are young and under Jays control until after the 2012  season.  Litsch is here until 2013 if the Jays want him as is Wolfe.  League & Accardo are here until 2011.  Anyone called up now will be here until 2014 (I think I have that right, 6 full major league seasons).  Everyone else could be gone by the end of 2010.

I like the Jays future, although I'd enjoy it more if the playoffs expanded a bit or some realignment of divisions shifted the Jays out of the Yankee/Red Sox division as that is one tough nut to crack.  No cheap playoff appearances ala 1989 anymore (peak of owner meddling in NY and Boston was a bit screwed up with the owners son catching just 2 years earlier with his career 32 OPS+).

Now doesn't Olney look silly?

No, that's what both the team and Hill were saying a few days ago.  Quotes and all..

And what I am saying is Pedroia has not yet established his talent level yet and I am not willing to say he is better than Hill until he outperforms him on a regular basis.

When did you say this?  I find it frustrating to have a discussion with someone who changes their point when they are unsuccessful.

You comment was the following:

I would not mention Pedroia with the likes of Utley, Phillips, Roberts and Cano.  He did have a good year, but Eric Hinske had a pretty good rookie season as well. And his power doesn't match up with those players as well.

I don't see any comparison with Hill in there at all.  I'll admit to not being effective in a discussion when people change what they are arguing.

McGowan, Marcum, and Janssen are young and under Jays control until after the 2012  season.  Litsch is here until 2013 if the Jays want him as is Wolfe.

In general, I agree with everything.  However, I think that Janssen is done as a pitcher.  With a torn labrum, he will probably be lucky to ever pitch successfully as a major leaguer again.

You might as well forget about Chacin too since he's recovering from a torn labrum too.

Aaron Hill has been developing in a very odd manner in some respects.  Generally plate discipline and isolated power increase as a player ages.  In Hill's case, he's clearly been trying with success to increase his power numbers- increasing ISO, and his FB/GB ratio- dramatically so last year.  But his walk numbers have been going down each year; oddly, this has been happening as his P/PA have been moving up.  It doesn't seem he's been increasing his power by being more aggressive at the plate.  This leads me to suspect that his walk rate will come back up, even as he maintains and increases his power numbers- which I think, combined with his defence will move him nicely into the Roberts/Cano group of second basemen.  Projections already place him quite close to Pedroia and Polanco.

Arguably, yesterday afternoon marked the high-water mark of JP's career as GM so far. Hill's contract is so reasonable as to make one wonder if this is 1998 rather than 2008. Rios' contract, while not in the same jaw-dropping category as Hill's, is still reasonable enough in this era of rapid salary inflation, and may actually be below-market in four years.

IMO, yesterday's announcements were more exciting than any of the FA signings of the past few years.

Well done, JP.

Interesting contracts. Both players traded life time financial security for the present against much higher potential future earnings as  free agents.  The club has bought out both players respective free agent years for about 50-75 cents on the dollar.  Frankly you can't blame the players, all they have to do  is look around their dressing room at all the severe injuries that many of their peers have suffered and you can see why you'd take the sure money up front. The team does assume some moderate risk, if Rios runs into the wall in todays game and suffers a severe injury the team is on the hook for a large sum, but I think it's a solid gamble.

To give you an idea what kind of coin were talking about, using Tango's $ 4.4 per marginal win and adjusting for inflation, and given that Rios preforms at a reasonable level, he'd command as a free agent after 2010 about  $ 16-19 million per year on the open market. He's signed for about $10.8 during this time period, a significant amount of surplus value garnered for the team.

The attrition  rates for second basemen( due to collisions turning the double play) have been traditionally higher  than at some other positions, but the team with the unique club option caveat is fairly well covered in this scenario regarding Hill.  

Since the Tulo debacle I've been quite negative towards Riccardi, but his ability to lock up young talent is a strong point in his favor.  It speaks well of the city and the organization that players  are willing to leave money on the table to play for the Blue Jays.