Time to consider the local heroes....
We have optimism, we have pessimism. We have faith, we have skepticism. We have - ahem - covered many of the bases.
THE OFFENSE
The Jays scored 753 runs in 2007. That was 10th best in a fourteen team league. The average AL team scored about 793 runs.
Clearly, that wasn't good enough. Will they be better in 2008? How and why?
John Northey: Will the offense be better? I would assume so but have to think it through by position...
CA: Zaun & Barajas vs Zaun & crap - improvement
1B: healthy Overbay vs sick Overbay - improvement
2B: 26 year old Hill vs 25 year old Hill - slight improvement
3B: Rolen/Scutaro vs Glaus/crap - depends on Rolen being healthy
SS: Eckstein/McDonald vs McDonald/crap - much better
LF: Stewart/Stairs vs Lind/Johnson - much better
CF: healthy Wells vs sick Wells - improvement (we hope)
RF: 27 year old Rios vs 26 year old - slight improvement
DH: 40 year old Thomas vs 39 year old - slight decline
Bench: Scutaro/McDonald/Coats/Stairs vs Stairs/crap - improvement
So the only decline I see is at DH and possibly third if Rolen misses 50+ games. Everywhere else is an offensive improvement. 10th in runs scored last year, between Baltimore & Oakland. Also lower were Minnesota, KC, and ChiSox. I would bet on passing Baltimore and Seattle but not Tampa Bay thus moving into 8th place and a league average offense.
Pistol: Given the lack of big holes in the lineup it will be difficult to Improving the offence during the season. First base is really the only possible area the Jays would improve in a trade (unless they were making a trade to fill a hole created by injury) and I can't see that happening. So what you see now will almost certainly be what you get all year.
Anders: Well Matt Stairs hit .341/.426/.651 in 148 PAs in left last year, which I wouldn't expect to happen again, though the overall line in left was .259/.318/.423. I wouldn't say that a 40 year old Matt Stairs and a 34 year old Shannon Stewart are a great bet to do much better than that. Adam Lind, on the other hand...
Alex Obal: We're in the same boat we were in last year, and the year before. With the exception of the huge sinkhole at shortstop, every spot in the lineup is at least average. But there's colossal injury risk, which has already reared its ugly head in the form of Scott Rolen's fingernail catastrophe, and if you think that's the end of it you're kidding yourself. But, kidding myself for the time being, I expect a big bounce back from at least one of Overbay and Wells (very likely in Overbay's case) and a big step forward from Hill. I'm not worried about Zaun taking a step back - all he does is walk, and his BABIPs are always horrible, which seems like a nice age-resistant skill set - but I'm certainly not expecting another godly season from Stairs. In total, if pigs fly and everyone stays healthy, this lineup is a wrecking machine, especially when Eckstein starts and there's no auto-out in the 9-hole for the other team to pile leverage on at will. If the injury situation is the same as it was last year, though, and Stairs isn't in superman mode, look out.
Anders: I think that it will be hard for the Jays to regress from 2007 - the substantial time missed by Overbay, Zaun and Glaus was extremely detrimental. Combine that with a (to put it mildly) down year for Vernon, Overbay's struggles coming back from injury and the shortstop situation, and I think that the Jays can realistically to expect to improve at several positions. With that being said, Rolen figures to be just as big an injury risk as Glaus was, Stairs and Thomas both turn 40 this year, and we really don't know what the real Vernon is at this point. The Jays have a lot of complimentary parts, but no stars - Rios is good, but would frankly be a complimentary player on a great offensive team team. Don't get me wrong, Rios might be my favourite Jays hitter, but he isn't going to carry the entire offensive load.
Gerry: Players get injured every year but last year the number of injuries was high. The Jays should expect better production from the injured players are better production too from the young guys, Hill and Rios, and better production from Rod Barajas and Shannon Stewart. On the other hand Matt Stairs will likely decline from his great 2007 season. If Scott Rolen was to get injured the Jays would have Marco Scutaro step in, and that would be a step down.
Matthew E: I think they'll be better but not good enough. I see this as a below-average offensive team again. They overachieved a couple of years ago and everybody's still taking it for reality. Who's going to push this team ahead offensively? Not the catchers. Overbay isn't that great. Hill's good for a second baseman but no more than that. Not the shortstops. Rolen? Tricky. Wells? Tricky. Rios, okay; he's a good hitter. The left fielders? The tetragenarians?
Magpie: What's with this crashing dose of... what do they call it? Reality?
Anders: In general I see big improvement from Rios and Aaron Hill in particular - I think this is finally when Aaron becomes a household name. I think that Lyle Overbay will get back to about where he was, Eckstein will be about a wash with McDonald when defense is factored in, and that Vernon hits his usual .280/.320/.470. I still didn't get the Stairs extension, especially as Adam Lind needs to be playing in the bigs every day at this point - he has nothing left to prove in AAA. I tried to think of some clever portmanteau of optimistic and skeptical, but the best I could come up with is skeptimistic, which I guess conveys my thoughts here.
Thomas: The Jays should be better at short and center and I could see one of Hill or Rios improving a bit. Most other positions will have minimal improvement or decline. However, the team could easily be worse at 3B and there'll likely be some injury or unexpected decline that we don't anticipate. The Jays aren't particularly deep and an injury could hurt them substantially. The biggest variable is likely if Rolen can remain reasonably healthy and come close to hitting like he did in 2006.
Alex Obal: Like Anders, I'm very optimistic about Hill's prospects for this year. In 2007, Hill saw a fall in his walk rate and a spike in his K rate, but his HR/fly nearly tripled, to a slightly-below-average 8.6. In other words, he sacrificed some contact for power. As a result, his OBP was a career-low .333, but his SLG went up 73 points to .459. The challenge now is increasing the walk rate (or bringing the K rate back down, or both) while maintaining the power gains. If Hill walks as much as he did in his rookie year, you're looking at a .295/.370/.460 hitter with very strong defense at a tough position to fill. That doesn't sound farfetched to me.
Magpie: Yeah, but. Each of the other four teams in the division will probably be getting more offense from their second baseman. It's a tough crowd.
Alex Obal: I dispute this 'probably'. I think it's more of a maybe - if a spiritual awakening leads the Rays to use B.J. Upton as their second baseman, and Brian Roberts stays with the Orioles all year, and Dustin Pedroia's singles fall in again...
Thomas: I agree with the consensus that Overbay will be better, as he's healthy, and Rios and Hill should roughly equal last year's production. ZIPS is actually very negative on Hill, projecting a slugging percentage under .400. I can't see a reason why he'd regress like that, so I'm going to go with my head and say he'll put up roughly the same numbers. Shortstop should see an improvement as Eckstein, when playing, will hit better than McDonald and Clayton did. Sure they'll lose something defensively, but that's not what we're talking about here.
Alex Obal: ZIPS is an outlier on Hill. He's never had a big-league OBP anywhere near as bad as .324, which is what ZIPS has called. James, CHONE and Marcel all forecast lines around .290/.345/.430, which seems much more realistic.
Thomas: So, we have improvement or no change at four positions. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Frank Thomas declined a bit, but I could also see him posting roughly the same numbers as last year. He started very slowly last year and has apparently changed up his offseason workout regime to attempt to address that. There's no evidence that will work, but the optimist in me wants to believe Thomas won't get out of the gate so slowly. If he can avoid a prolonged early season slump that could offset any age-related decline and give the Jays roughly the same production at DH, or even a slight improvement. Also, did you know Frank Thomas got an MVP vote last year? I had no idea.
Magpie: Thomas is still a good hitter, even if he's not Frank Freaking Thomas anymore. But I wonder how patient Gibbons will be if Thomas struggles out of the gate? No one talks about it, but the manager could be feeling a little bit of urgency to win right now.
Thomas: At catcher the Jays should get some improvement, but I don't think it will be as big as some people expect. For all of Jason Phillips' struggles last year, he only made 158 plate appearances. Thigpen made another 110, but just over half those came at catcher and he only played that much because the Jays were out of it. Nevertheless, maybe there are 210-220 plate appearances there by backup catchers who failed to produce. However, both Barajas and Zaun's projections (and I'm using ZIPS projections here, which are favourable to the Jays, as opposed to PECOTA which is much more pessimistic) are worse than Zaun's 2007 line. Barajas actually has a higher slugging percentage, but he gives it back with a drop in batting average and OBP. Zaun's projection is slightly worse than his 2007 line and this decline could come close to offsetting the gain Jays would get from Barajas replacing Phillips and Thigpen. There will be improved production at catcher, but I don't think it will be as substantial as people think.
Magpie: Yup. Barajas is an upgrade, but the impact will be marginal.
Thomas: In terms of left field, the one remaining part of the platoon is Matt Stairs. Last year Stairs hit .289/.368/.549 over 405 plate appearances. This year ZIPS projects a line of .253/.336/.434 and if we assume Stairs will get about the same number of at-bats in left-field, DHing and pinch-hitting opportunities, you see how much production the Jays lose there. That's 30 points of OBP and 115 points of slugging. Now, between them Lind and Johnson got about 600 plate appearances and produced something to the effect of .237/.292 /.360. (Lind got 311 PAs to Johnson's 305, so I just averaged their two lines.) Stewart's projection is .283/.341/.370. Stewart will give the Jays about 50 points of OBP and 10 points of slugging over 2007 Lind and Johnson, but as you can see the Jays are losing 30 points of OBP and 115 points of slugging off Stairs. Also, any non-Lind replacements, such as Coats or Scutaro or Mottola don't figure to hit better than Stewart will.
Alex Obal: Bonus non sequitur. I wonder if Adam Lind is better at hitting righties than Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill. Like, right now.
Thomas: This position is a tough one to predict because of playing time variables and any playing time Lind gets could change the equation drastically (most likely positively, but possibly negatively if he hits like last year). However, unless Stairs regresses less than the systems project or Lind grabs more than a handful of at-bats during a couple of short DL stints and in September, I think the improvement in left field seems a lot bigger than it is likely to be.
Magpie: At this point, I suppose only a truly desperate individual would try to anticipate what Vernon Wells will do from one year to the next. Perhaps we need to examine the entrails of some defunct fowl. I just hope he turns in a season along the lines of his career averages - a Joe Carter type year. Obviously, it would be acceptable should he happen to charge back up to the heights of 2003 or 2006.
Thomas: Center field and third base is where the 2008 offense will live and die. Simply put, to compete the Jays need Wells to hit like 2006 Wells and Rolen to not only remain healthy but hit like (or come close to hitting like) the Rolen of old. If V-Dub can put up something close to .350/.550 lines of 2003 and 2006 that's fantastic. If he can come close with a .335/.470 line that's important. If he puts up another .300/.400 line the Jays won't be making the playoffs. Last year was his lowest slugging percentage since his rookie season and ZIPS agrees that Wells is in for an improvement. They peg him at .268/.330/.454. I think he may slightly exceed that, but a solid improvement like that from an everyday player is important.
Magpie: I, for one, will miss Mighty Troy. And I won't be the only one. You're going to miss him, too. I just can't see Rolen making up for that production. I can see 150 games of Rolen being roughly equivalent to 100 games of Troy and 50 games of Luna-Adams-Johnny Mac. But Rolen isn't going to play 150 games.
Thomas: Last year Troy Glaus hit .262/.366/.473 in roughly two-thirds of the playing time at third and assorted flotsam hit like you'd expect a parade of backup infielders to hit over the remaining third of the games. Scott Rolen is injury-prone. He's on the DL already and it's not even to do with his shoulder. He could easily wind up playing in less games than Glaus did in 2007. However, when healthy he's not expected to set the world on fire as ZIPS projects a line of .245/.319/.392. That's a big drop from Glaus, in fact it's bigger than the improvement ZIPS expects from Wells. The Jays acquired Scutaro, improving their backup infielder, but Scutaro's no world-beater with the bat and is expected to put up a line of .254/.334/.359. That's a good OBP for a backup infielder and an improvement over Adams, Smith and Luna, but it's not going to replace Glaus either. If he gets 400 plate appearances the Jays are in trouble. Unless Rolen can both stay healthy and hit like the Scott Rolen of old, which he did in 2004 and 2006, third base is going to be worse for the Jays in 2008 offensively. And I'm not holding my breath about his health.
Gerry: I will call the Jays to get back above average and guess 820 runs scored.
Magpie: Sounds right to me. How about 814 runs. Middle of the pack.
Matthew E: Eighth in the league in runs scored.
Anders: Like Matthew put it, I think the Jays offense improves, but perhaps to league average at best - certainly not enough to hang with the big boys.
Thomas: In a much longer way I've come to basically the same conclusion. The Jays offense will improve, but would max out at league average if everything goes right.
PITCHING AND DEFENSE
Magpie: This was the good news in 2008. It took some time - a few injuries, a few failed experiments - before the Blue Jays sorted out who was going to carry the pitching load last season. Once they did, there was a lot to like.
Anders: The Jays had the second best pitching in the AL last year, and their real hope on improving in 2008 rests in getting better in this department - the Rios for Lincecum chatter confirms that this is at least the way that Jays management sees it. With the front four of the rotation set and Jesse Litsch looking to break as the fifth starter, the Jays return a front five that started 128/162 games in 2007. If the Jays can get at least as many starts again from Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Marcum and Litsch then they should be in alright shape.
Gerry: I am less optimistic about the pitching than the hitting and I expect the pitching to fall back in 2008.
Anders: I'm fairly optimistic about the staff in 08. I think that the sky's the limit for Dustin McGowan at this point - in the second half last year he held hitters to a .217 avg in 98 innings. Doc and AJ also were lights out after the All Star Break - Marcum was the one who really faltered. With AJ the only question is health - he is basically a top 10 pitcher when healthy (admittedly a big if). Jesse Litsch figures to come back to earth at some point, but I'm optimistic that Marcum can do as well as he did last year on the whole. As I see it the Jays front four stacks up with anyone in the Majors.
Pistol: I agree about McGowan, and will go as far to say he'll be the best pitcher on the Jays this year and get some Cy Young votes. Locking him up next offseason will be a priority.
Gerry: Many Jays fans believe the Jays can exploit the uncertainty surrounding the young pitchers in the Yankee and Red Sox rotations. Young pitchers can break your heart goes the old saying and the Yankees have Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy. The Sox have Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. But the Jays will use three young pitchers in the rotation, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch. There are questions over all three heading into 2008. Can McGowan build on the confidence he gained in 2007 or will his head pull him down again. Can Marcum and Litsch continue to hit their spots with their low margins for error. All three are second year pitchers and the sophomore slump is waiting in the wings.
Matthew E. I think the pitching's going to fall back too. I have no real problems with Burnett or McGowan, but I think Halladay's on the down side, and that the league is going to catch up with Marcum and Litsch. I don't think it's a bad pitching staff, but they won't be as good as last year, and I think there'll be one stretch sometime this year when *everybody* is just going to get pasted against the outfield wall for about a week and a half, and the fans will panic.
Magpie: Seems to me that you say that with a little more relish than is altogether decent. I'm literally having visions of stunned pitchers pasted against the outfield wall, their legs kicking helplessly at the air. It's not a pretty picture. More to the point, you've got me panicking right now. Anyone else want to rain on the parade?
Thomas: I see things completely oppositely. I have no problems with Halladay and I think Marcum may well be a known commodity in that he'll be a serviceable number four with a bit of a decline from last year. Maybe an ERA in the mid-to-high 4's. However, Burnett and McGowan are the keys and the potential problems, as they're both going to need to contribute if the Jays are to make the playoffs. With Burnett the question is simple: can he remain healthy? With McGowan it's can he capitalize on his immense talent and stuff he possesses? He showed signs of harnessing it last year and is spoken of very highly by a lot of baseball folks. But there have been other pitchers who showed signs of turning a corner only to regress the next year. If McGowan suffers a sophomore slump the team is in trouble. I think he's for real, but it's no sure thing.
Gerry: Roy Halladay has a lot of innings under his belt and he has had injury issues the last few years. Similarly AJ Burnett is no stranger to the disabled list. If the Jays have a chance to win in 2008 they need Halladay and Burnett to stay injury free; the young starters to avoid injury and a fall-off in performance; and the bullpen, including BJ Ryan, to stay strong.
Magpie: Begone! I have no worries about Roy Halladay. None whatsoever.
Anders: So from 2nd place last year in runs/game to top 5 is what I would bet on this year. 1st is possible but we need health from all the starters (especially AJ and Halladay) and the kids to progress to 120 ERA+ guys. I wouldn't bet the farm on that but it is possible and would put the Jays into 95+ win territory.
John Northey: Pitching? Wow. 30 games started by Ohka/Towers/Chacin plus 4 by miscellanous others (such as Zambrano) should be replaced by Marcum/McGowan/Litsch and minor leaguers like Banks. I doubt Litsch will be anywhere near as good as last year (117 ERA+). Still, all 5 could/should be 100+ in ERA+ which is a major boost. Backups in AAA aren't as ugly as before, and Wolfe could take over for emergency starts.
Magpie: Ah, but wait. Here's the thing - in 2008, Marcum/McGowan/Litsch will be making their own starts - they're no longer available to fill in. They're the guys who would get filled in for. In 2007, the Jays were unbelievably fortunate - when the original batch of starters didn't work out, they came up with three - three! - guys to add to the mix. They will need to find a couple more in 2008.
Anders: The options after the top five appear grim - Gus, Josh Banks and David Purcey are the only other full time starters on the 40 man.
Magpie: Exactly my point. They will need those sixth and seventh starters again this year. You always do. And that's what worries me. Those 30 games started by Ohka/Towers/Chacin won't be replaced by Marcum/McGowan/Litsch. Not this time.
Thomas: That's a very good point. Not only do the Jays have a lack of options on the 40-man roster, but other non-40 man roster options in the system, such as Michael MacDonald (he's not ahead of Banks or Purcey on the depth chart right now, but who knows who's hurt or pitching poorly in June), are fine for a couple of starts, but aren't developed enough to step in on a long-term basis. If (or when) the Jays need a long-term replacement, because of an inevitable Burnett injury, a Litsch sophomore slump or something else, I think the team will have to look outside the organization for help. JP should be actively scouring the waiver wire, as I'm sure he is, during the final week of spring training given teams will be making their final cuts.
Anders: The bullpen figures to be a little shakier this year, especially with Janssen likely out the whole year, if not longer. BJ coming back will be a big help, but its a question as to whether he will be the same old BJ. Jeremy Accardo held down the fort admirably, and Scott Downs has been fantastic as well, but I would be a bit worried about him falling back down to earth. Free Jason Frasor figures to play an important part, and if Brandon League is healthy again then the Jays could have a pretty good pen. I'm optimistic.
Magpie: I'd like to announce that Jason Frasor is my new whipping boy. He has taken the place of Justin Speier in my heart. For me, he's that guy who puts up good numbers and generally pitches well... except when you actually need him to. On the other hand, Liam reports that Brandon League looks to him "like the flyin' Hawaiian of old." What you gain on the swings, you lose on the roundabout? Or something.
Anders: The pen will be worse as last year was amazing (190+ ERA+ for Accardo, Downs and Janssen). We had 6 very solid guys last year and should have even more depth this year but last year everything went right for the core 3 and you can't count on that year in year out. The one plus is we now know who the closer is, who the setup is, etc without having Gibbons wasting over a month figuring it out.
Magpie: Can they catch the ball? More or less. Shannon Stewart throws quite a bit like me, it's true - and it's nice to have a player to identify with in that way. But on the other hand - the amount of angst I've seen expressed over a left fielder's throwing arm... it's just weird. All left fielders have below average arms. That's why they're in left field. Except Yaz.
Anders: The Jays will have a top three defense in the Majors. I will wager money on this.
John Northey: Defense? Still strong but not as strong with Stairs/Stewart being worse than Lind/Johnson and McDonald likely to play less than last year (I figure Eckstein is about equal to the junk that played in non-McDonald games). Rolan vs Glaus is an improvement. Barajas vs the misc. backup catchers of last year is an improvement I suspect.
Thomas: Assuming that Rolen remains relatively healthy, the Jays will have one of the best infield defenses in the majors. He's going to be an improvement over Glaus, who was sure-handed but lacks Rolen's range. Rolen over Glaus should make up for the difference between Eckstein and McDonald. Plus, McDonald will start something like 30% of the games and replace Eckstein in the field in the late innings of many of the others.
Anders: If the Jays started McDonald at short and Reed in left every game their defense would have to be, I imagine, one of the better ones of the 2000s, if not longer. Not going to happen, obviously. But Hill, Rios, McDonald, Rolen and maybe Wells are legitimate (aka non-Derek Jeter) Glovers. Overbay is above average. Gregg Zaun is the weak link here, with his noodle arm, but seems to be fine calling games. Of course things won't work out like this exactly, as Eckstein and Stairs figure to start a bunch of games.
Magpie: Eckstein worries me, too. Well, guess we'll find out what he's got.
Thomas: I'm not as worried about Eckstein as others are. He's the weak link and likely to be the only one below average in the field, but the guy's spent his entire life figuring out how to get things done and not relying on pure talent. I remember reading minor league reports on him in the mid-90's, when he was a marginal prospect, that he couldn't play short in the majors. For all the talk of people overrating intangibles, Eckstein's a guy who has persevered and often proven people wrong. He might just do it again.
THE FORECAST
So how's it all going to pan out in the end?
Magpie: Josh Towers, picked up off the scrap heap, goes 4-0 in September and 8-1 overall as the Jays close with a late surge to improve by eight games over the previous season. Oh, wait. That already happened? That was 2003? Sorry....
Anders: The Jays have, over the past couple of years, always had enough talent to make the playoffs if things broke completely their way. Of course, that or the budget. This year things have already begun to go bad - AJ's nail, Janssen's arm, Rolen's finger - and the season hasn't even started. I hope this doesn't foreshadow an injury plagued season, because the Jays as constituted have little depth. They basically can handle injuries in left, at first and behind the plate, and maybe in the bullpen. After that, the Jays options become decreasingly bad. If AJ goes down for more than his usual 6 weeks then the staff is in trouble.
Magpie: I have no sense at all anymore about this team. None at all. They could win 73 games, they could win 93 games. And all points in between, and maybe even some beyond. I have no idea at all.I don't know what to expect. I am mystified. I am confused. I am absent any...
ALL: Oh shut up.
Matthew E: To me, this is a team that will have to fight to finish above .500. Again. And I don't know how that'll go over. Ricciardi is betting that these players can vindicate his tenure as GM, and I'm not sure what the stakes of this bet are... but I do think he's going to come out on the losing end of it.
Magpie: All righty then. Could they win a championship?
Sure.
Is it likely?
No.
But it's not likely for anyone. The deck is stacked against every team. You've got to be either very good or very fortunate or (even better) both.
They won't win like the 2007 Red Sox, by simply being so good that they could shrug off extremely disappointing seasons by both their big off-season acquisitions (the shortstop and the right fielder). Not to mention their best player being slowed by injury and turning in the weakest season of his Hall of Fame career. And they won't win like the 2006 Cardinals, either, with an ordinary team that barely squeaks into the post-season by virtue of being slightly better than the rest of a weak field. And then, once there, having otherwise ordinary pitchers suddenly rise up and pitch like all stars. That's not going to happen in this division - 84 wins doesn't get you anything in this neck of the woods. So if they do win, they'll be like the 2005 White Sox. Things will come together in new and unusual ways. Even the things that go badly will somehow wind up working out for them. You can't predict such things, and you sure can't count on them.
John Northey: Hrm. I see a team that wins more often than not but...
The big issues are Rolen's health, Thomas' offense, healthy offense from Wells/Overbay, and the kids in the rotation not regressing too far. I wouldn't be shocked to see anywhere from 85-90 wins with a 10 win window on each side. If all goes according to plan then 95+ wins and a division title are possible (above league average offense, tops in pitching). If things fall apart 4th place is possible.
I'm betting on Lind in LF by June, taking over full time by July. Marcum surprising most with a 3.00 ERA and 18 wins. Overbay showing last year was for real (sniff) and JP eating his salary in the winter. AJ getting just 20 starts and leaving anyways in the winter. A race into September after a slow start in April/May and 89 wins in 2nd place ahead of the Yankees where Mussina has a 5.75 ERA and no one in their rotation with 10+ starts has an ERA+ above 100.
Matthew E: My big problem with this team is what I take to be Ricciardi's basic assumption behind all his moves: that last year's team had the kernel of a champion and just needed a couple of tweaks to put them over the top. So he didn't make big changes; he tweaked a couple of things. Adjusted third base a bit, got a shortstop who wasn't completely embarrassing when up at bat, a little bit of this and a little bit of that in left field... but nothing major.
And it's not enough. There just aren't enough hitters here. The pitching's decent, but to take this particular collection of bats to the post-season it'd have to be a lot better than decent.
Anders: Despite pessimism, the Jay's lineup 1-9 has the potential to be good if no one gets hurt and people hit like they are supposed to. The staff promises to be even better, but with little room for injury. People around baseball are picking up on the Jays - I believe the five ESPN experts had the Jays winning between 84-90 wins, albeit settling for third. I think the Jays will finish in the same range, winning 87 games and challenging a faltering Yankees or Red Sox squad for second in the division. With a couple of lucky breaks, the Jays could win the wild card. It's not outside the realm of possibility, though if I were a betting man (and I am) I wouldn't stake the house on it. Should be a good season.
Thomas: Not surprisingly, I agree with the general consensus. It wouldn't surprise me to see the team finish with 89 or 90 wins and in second place in the AL East ahead of a Yankee team dealing with severe growing pains by a couple of young pitchers. I'd be surprised, but not shocked, by 80 wins and fourth place. But I think the most likely scenario is 86 wins and third place. Here are five barometers on which we can measure the season's chances of success. Burnett making 27 or more starts. McGowan having an ERA of 3.80 or under. Lyle Overbay putting up an OBP over .370. Vernon Wells slugging over .470. Scott Rolen playing over 110 games and slugging over .425. If they hit on four or five of these the season will go quite well and they will be in legitimate playoff contention. If they hit on only one or two I think the team is in trouble. And if, as I expect, they hit a couple, come close on a third and miss two, one by a substantial margin, they'll be on be pace for a win total in the mid-80's and October golf.
Matthew E: It's possible that enough of these guys could pile good years together that they fluke out a wild card spot, and once that happens they've got as good a chance at the Series as anybody. But it would require the Jays to do something they haven't been able to do in years.
You know how, during a baseball season, every now and then, we'll all say something about an upcoming game or series or homestand or road trip that sounds like, "If the Jays can win big in front of this huge home crowd, we may really have something. If they can sweep this series against Tampa Bay. If they can have a winning road trip. If they can seize this opportunity, they'll be in a much better position."
The Toronto Blue Jays have not seized an opportunity in years.
When presented with opportunities, they have consistently responded with their worst possible performances.
Now, there's nothing that says that that has to continue. But I have no reason to be a believer in these Jays. A hoper, yes. But not a believer.
We have optimism, we have pessimism. We have faith, we have skepticism. We have - ahem - covered many of the bases.
THE OFFENSE
The Jays scored 753 runs in 2007. That was 10th best in a fourteen team league. The average AL team scored about 793 runs.
Clearly, that wasn't good enough. Will they be better in 2008? How and why?
John Northey: Will the offense be better? I would assume so but have to think it through by position...
CA: Zaun & Barajas vs Zaun & crap - improvement
1B: healthy Overbay vs sick Overbay - improvement
2B: 26 year old Hill vs 25 year old Hill - slight improvement
3B: Rolen/Scutaro vs Glaus/crap - depends on Rolen being healthy
SS: Eckstein/McDonald vs McDonald/crap - much better
LF: Stewart/Stairs vs Lind/Johnson - much better
CF: healthy Wells vs sick Wells - improvement (we hope)
RF: 27 year old Rios vs 26 year old - slight improvement
DH: 40 year old Thomas vs 39 year old - slight decline
Bench: Scutaro/McDonald/Coats/Stairs vs Stairs/crap - improvement
So the only decline I see is at DH and possibly third if Rolen misses 50+ games. Everywhere else is an offensive improvement. 10th in runs scored last year, between Baltimore & Oakland. Also lower were Minnesota, KC, and ChiSox. I would bet on passing Baltimore and Seattle but not Tampa Bay thus moving into 8th place and a league average offense.
Pistol: Given the lack of big holes in the lineup it will be difficult to Improving the offence during the season. First base is really the only possible area the Jays would improve in a trade (unless they were making a trade to fill a hole created by injury) and I can't see that happening. So what you see now will almost certainly be what you get all year.
Anders: Well Matt Stairs hit .341/.426/.651 in 148 PAs in left last year, which I wouldn't expect to happen again, though the overall line in left was .259/.318/.423. I wouldn't say that a 40 year old Matt Stairs and a 34 year old Shannon Stewart are a great bet to do much better than that. Adam Lind, on the other hand...
Alex Obal: We're in the same boat we were in last year, and the year before. With the exception of the huge sinkhole at shortstop, every spot in the lineup is at least average. But there's colossal injury risk, which has already reared its ugly head in the form of Scott Rolen's fingernail catastrophe, and if you think that's the end of it you're kidding yourself. But, kidding myself for the time being, I expect a big bounce back from at least one of Overbay and Wells (very likely in Overbay's case) and a big step forward from Hill. I'm not worried about Zaun taking a step back - all he does is walk, and his BABIPs are always horrible, which seems like a nice age-resistant skill set - but I'm certainly not expecting another godly season from Stairs. In total, if pigs fly and everyone stays healthy, this lineup is a wrecking machine, especially when Eckstein starts and there's no auto-out in the 9-hole for the other team to pile leverage on at will. If the injury situation is the same as it was last year, though, and Stairs isn't in superman mode, look out.
Anders: I think that it will be hard for the Jays to regress from 2007 - the substantial time missed by Overbay, Zaun and Glaus was extremely detrimental. Combine that with a (to put it mildly) down year for Vernon, Overbay's struggles coming back from injury and the shortstop situation, and I think that the Jays can realistically to expect to improve at several positions. With that being said, Rolen figures to be just as big an injury risk as Glaus was, Stairs and Thomas both turn 40 this year, and we really don't know what the real Vernon is at this point. The Jays have a lot of complimentary parts, but no stars - Rios is good, but would frankly be a complimentary player on a great offensive team team. Don't get me wrong, Rios might be my favourite Jays hitter, but he isn't going to carry the entire offensive load.
Gerry: Players get injured every year but last year the number of injuries was high. The Jays should expect better production from the injured players are better production too from the young guys, Hill and Rios, and better production from Rod Barajas and Shannon Stewart. On the other hand Matt Stairs will likely decline from his great 2007 season. If Scott Rolen was to get injured the Jays would have Marco Scutaro step in, and that would be a step down.
Matthew E: I think they'll be better but not good enough. I see this as a below-average offensive team again. They overachieved a couple of years ago and everybody's still taking it for reality. Who's going to push this team ahead offensively? Not the catchers. Overbay isn't that great. Hill's good for a second baseman but no more than that. Not the shortstops. Rolen? Tricky. Wells? Tricky. Rios, okay; he's a good hitter. The left fielders? The tetragenarians?
Magpie: What's with this crashing dose of... what do they call it? Reality?
Anders: In general I see big improvement from Rios and Aaron Hill in particular - I think this is finally when Aaron becomes a household name. I think that Lyle Overbay will get back to about where he was, Eckstein will be about a wash with McDonald when defense is factored in, and that Vernon hits his usual .280/.320/.470. I still didn't get the Stairs extension, especially as Adam Lind needs to be playing in the bigs every day at this point - he has nothing left to prove in AAA. I tried to think of some clever portmanteau of optimistic and skeptical, but the best I could come up with is skeptimistic, which I guess conveys my thoughts here.
Thomas: The Jays should be better at short and center and I could see one of Hill or Rios improving a bit. Most other positions will have minimal improvement or decline. However, the team could easily be worse at 3B and there'll likely be some injury or unexpected decline that we don't anticipate. The Jays aren't particularly deep and an injury could hurt them substantially. The biggest variable is likely if Rolen can remain reasonably healthy and come close to hitting like he did in 2006.
Alex Obal: Like Anders, I'm very optimistic about Hill's prospects for this year. In 2007, Hill saw a fall in his walk rate and a spike in his K rate, but his HR/fly nearly tripled, to a slightly-below-average 8.6. In other words, he sacrificed some contact for power. As a result, his OBP was a career-low .333, but his SLG went up 73 points to .459. The challenge now is increasing the walk rate (or bringing the K rate back down, or both) while maintaining the power gains. If Hill walks as much as he did in his rookie year, you're looking at a .295/.370/.460 hitter with very strong defense at a tough position to fill. That doesn't sound farfetched to me.
Magpie: Yeah, but. Each of the other four teams in the division will probably be getting more offense from their second baseman. It's a tough crowd.
Alex Obal: I dispute this 'probably'. I think it's more of a maybe - if a spiritual awakening leads the Rays to use B.J. Upton as their second baseman, and Brian Roberts stays with the Orioles all year, and Dustin Pedroia's singles fall in again...
Thomas: I agree with the consensus that Overbay will be better, as he's healthy, and Rios and Hill should roughly equal last year's production. ZIPS is actually very negative on Hill, projecting a slugging percentage under .400. I can't see a reason why he'd regress like that, so I'm going to go with my head and say he'll put up roughly the same numbers. Shortstop should see an improvement as Eckstein, when playing, will hit better than McDonald and Clayton did. Sure they'll lose something defensively, but that's not what we're talking about here.
Alex Obal: ZIPS is an outlier on Hill. He's never had a big-league OBP anywhere near as bad as .324, which is what ZIPS has called. James, CHONE and Marcel all forecast lines around .290/.345/.430, which seems much more realistic.
Thomas: So, we have improvement or no change at four positions. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Frank Thomas declined a bit, but I could also see him posting roughly the same numbers as last year. He started very slowly last year and has apparently changed up his offseason workout regime to attempt to address that. There's no evidence that will work, but the optimist in me wants to believe Thomas won't get out of the gate so slowly. If he can avoid a prolonged early season slump that could offset any age-related decline and give the Jays roughly the same production at DH, or even a slight improvement. Also, did you know Frank Thomas got an MVP vote last year? I had no idea.
Magpie: Thomas is still a good hitter, even if he's not Frank Freaking Thomas anymore. But I wonder how patient Gibbons will be if Thomas struggles out of the gate? No one talks about it, but the manager could be feeling a little bit of urgency to win right now.
Thomas: At catcher the Jays should get some improvement, but I don't think it will be as big as some people expect. For all of Jason Phillips' struggles last year, he only made 158 plate appearances. Thigpen made another 110, but just over half those came at catcher and he only played that much because the Jays were out of it. Nevertheless, maybe there are 210-220 plate appearances there by backup catchers who failed to produce. However, both Barajas and Zaun's projections (and I'm using ZIPS projections here, which are favourable to the Jays, as opposed to PECOTA which is much more pessimistic) are worse than Zaun's 2007 line. Barajas actually has a higher slugging percentage, but he gives it back with a drop in batting average and OBP. Zaun's projection is slightly worse than his 2007 line and this decline could come close to offsetting the gain Jays would get from Barajas replacing Phillips and Thigpen. There will be improved production at catcher, but I don't think it will be as substantial as people think.
Magpie: Yup. Barajas is an upgrade, but the impact will be marginal.
Thomas: In terms of left field, the one remaining part of the platoon is Matt Stairs. Last year Stairs hit .289/.368/.549 over 405 plate appearances. This year ZIPS projects a line of .253/.336/.434 and if we assume Stairs will get about the same number of at-bats in left-field, DHing and pinch-hitting opportunities, you see how much production the Jays lose there. That's 30 points of OBP and 115 points of slugging. Now, between them Lind and Johnson got about 600 plate appearances and produced something to the effect of .237/.292 /.360. (Lind got 311 PAs to Johnson's 305, so I just averaged their two lines.) Stewart's projection is .283/.341/.370. Stewart will give the Jays about 50 points of OBP and 10 points of slugging over 2007 Lind and Johnson, but as you can see the Jays are losing 30 points of OBP and 115 points of slugging off Stairs. Also, any non-Lind replacements, such as Coats or Scutaro or Mottola don't figure to hit better than Stewart will.
Alex Obal: Bonus non sequitur. I wonder if Adam Lind is better at hitting righties than Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill. Like, right now.
Thomas: This position is a tough one to predict because of playing time variables and any playing time Lind gets could change the equation drastically (most likely positively, but possibly negatively if he hits like last year). However, unless Stairs regresses less than the systems project or Lind grabs more than a handful of at-bats during a couple of short DL stints and in September, I think the improvement in left field seems a lot bigger than it is likely to be.
Magpie: At this point, I suppose only a truly desperate individual would try to anticipate what Vernon Wells will do from one year to the next. Perhaps we need to examine the entrails of some defunct fowl. I just hope he turns in a season along the lines of his career averages - a Joe Carter type year. Obviously, it would be acceptable should he happen to charge back up to the heights of 2003 or 2006.
Thomas: Center field and third base is where the 2008 offense will live and die. Simply put, to compete the Jays need Wells to hit like 2006 Wells and Rolen to not only remain healthy but hit like (or come close to hitting like) the Rolen of old. If V-Dub can put up something close to .350/.550 lines of 2003 and 2006 that's fantastic. If he can come close with a .335/.470 line that's important. If he puts up another .300/.400 line the Jays won't be making the playoffs. Last year was his lowest slugging percentage since his rookie season and ZIPS agrees that Wells is in for an improvement. They peg him at .268/.330/.454. I think he may slightly exceed that, but a solid improvement like that from an everyday player is important.
Magpie: I, for one, will miss Mighty Troy. And I won't be the only one. You're going to miss him, too. I just can't see Rolen making up for that production. I can see 150 games of Rolen being roughly equivalent to 100 games of Troy and 50 games of Luna-Adams-Johnny Mac. But Rolen isn't going to play 150 games.
Thomas: Last year Troy Glaus hit .262/.366/.473 in roughly two-thirds of the playing time at third and assorted flotsam hit like you'd expect a parade of backup infielders to hit over the remaining third of the games. Scott Rolen is injury-prone. He's on the DL already and it's not even to do with his shoulder. He could easily wind up playing in less games than Glaus did in 2007. However, when healthy he's not expected to set the world on fire as ZIPS projects a line of .245/.319/.392. That's a big drop from Glaus, in fact it's bigger than the improvement ZIPS expects from Wells. The Jays acquired Scutaro, improving their backup infielder, but Scutaro's no world-beater with the bat and is expected to put up a line of .254/.334/.359. That's a good OBP for a backup infielder and an improvement over Adams, Smith and Luna, but it's not going to replace Glaus either. If he gets 400 plate appearances the Jays are in trouble. Unless Rolen can both stay healthy and hit like the Scott Rolen of old, which he did in 2004 and 2006, third base is going to be worse for the Jays in 2008 offensively. And I'm not holding my breath about his health.
Gerry: I will call the Jays to get back above average and guess 820 runs scored.
Magpie: Sounds right to me. How about 814 runs. Middle of the pack.
Matthew E: Eighth in the league in runs scored.
Anders: Like Matthew put it, I think the Jays offense improves, but perhaps to league average at best - certainly not enough to hang with the big boys.
Thomas: In a much longer way I've come to basically the same conclusion. The Jays offense will improve, but would max out at league average if everything goes right.
PITCHING AND DEFENSE
Magpie: This was the good news in 2008. It took some time - a few injuries, a few failed experiments - before the Blue Jays sorted out who was going to carry the pitching load last season. Once they did, there was a lot to like.
Anders: The Jays had the second best pitching in the AL last year, and their real hope on improving in 2008 rests in getting better in this department - the Rios for Lincecum chatter confirms that this is at least the way that Jays management sees it. With the front four of the rotation set and Jesse Litsch looking to break as the fifth starter, the Jays return a front five that started 128/162 games in 2007. If the Jays can get at least as many starts again from Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Marcum and Litsch then they should be in alright shape.
Gerry: I am less optimistic about the pitching than the hitting and I expect the pitching to fall back in 2008.
Anders: I'm fairly optimistic about the staff in 08. I think that the sky's the limit for Dustin McGowan at this point - in the second half last year he held hitters to a .217 avg in 98 innings. Doc and AJ also were lights out after the All Star Break - Marcum was the one who really faltered. With AJ the only question is health - he is basically a top 10 pitcher when healthy (admittedly a big if). Jesse Litsch figures to come back to earth at some point, but I'm optimistic that Marcum can do as well as he did last year on the whole. As I see it the Jays front four stacks up with anyone in the Majors.
Pistol: I agree about McGowan, and will go as far to say he'll be the best pitcher on the Jays this year and get some Cy Young votes. Locking him up next offseason will be a priority.
Gerry: Many Jays fans believe the Jays can exploit the uncertainty surrounding the young pitchers in the Yankee and Red Sox rotations. Young pitchers can break your heart goes the old saying and the Yankees have Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy. The Sox have Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. But the Jays will use three young pitchers in the rotation, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch. There are questions over all three heading into 2008. Can McGowan build on the confidence he gained in 2007 or will his head pull him down again. Can Marcum and Litsch continue to hit their spots with their low margins for error. All three are second year pitchers and the sophomore slump is waiting in the wings.
Matthew E. I think the pitching's going to fall back too. I have no real problems with Burnett or McGowan, but I think Halladay's on the down side, and that the league is going to catch up with Marcum and Litsch. I don't think it's a bad pitching staff, but they won't be as good as last year, and I think there'll be one stretch sometime this year when *everybody* is just going to get pasted against the outfield wall for about a week and a half, and the fans will panic.
Magpie: Seems to me that you say that with a little more relish than is altogether decent. I'm literally having visions of stunned pitchers pasted against the outfield wall, their legs kicking helplessly at the air. It's not a pretty picture. More to the point, you've got me panicking right now. Anyone else want to rain on the parade?
Thomas: I see things completely oppositely. I have no problems with Halladay and I think Marcum may well be a known commodity in that he'll be a serviceable number four with a bit of a decline from last year. Maybe an ERA in the mid-to-high 4's. However, Burnett and McGowan are the keys and the potential problems, as they're both going to need to contribute if the Jays are to make the playoffs. With Burnett the question is simple: can he remain healthy? With McGowan it's can he capitalize on his immense talent and stuff he possesses? He showed signs of harnessing it last year and is spoken of very highly by a lot of baseball folks. But there have been other pitchers who showed signs of turning a corner only to regress the next year. If McGowan suffers a sophomore slump the team is in trouble. I think he's for real, but it's no sure thing.
Gerry: Roy Halladay has a lot of innings under his belt and he has had injury issues the last few years. Similarly AJ Burnett is no stranger to the disabled list. If the Jays have a chance to win in 2008 they need Halladay and Burnett to stay injury free; the young starters to avoid injury and a fall-off in performance; and the bullpen, including BJ Ryan, to stay strong.
Magpie: Begone! I have no worries about Roy Halladay. None whatsoever.
Anders: So from 2nd place last year in runs/game to top 5 is what I would bet on this year. 1st is possible but we need health from all the starters (especially AJ and Halladay) and the kids to progress to 120 ERA+ guys. I wouldn't bet the farm on that but it is possible and would put the Jays into 95+ win territory.
John Northey: Pitching? Wow. 30 games started by Ohka/Towers/Chacin plus 4 by miscellanous others (such as Zambrano) should be replaced by Marcum/McGowan/Litsch and minor leaguers like Banks. I doubt Litsch will be anywhere near as good as last year (117 ERA+). Still, all 5 could/should be 100+ in ERA+ which is a major boost. Backups in AAA aren't as ugly as before, and Wolfe could take over for emergency starts.
Magpie: Ah, but wait. Here's the thing - in 2008, Marcum/McGowan/Litsch will be making their own starts - they're no longer available to fill in. They're the guys who would get filled in for. In 2007, the Jays were unbelievably fortunate - when the original batch of starters didn't work out, they came up with three - three! - guys to add to the mix. They will need to find a couple more in 2008.
Anders: The options after the top five appear grim - Gus, Josh Banks and David Purcey are the only other full time starters on the 40 man.
Magpie: Exactly my point. They will need those sixth and seventh starters again this year. You always do. And that's what worries me. Those 30 games started by Ohka/Towers/Chacin won't be replaced by Marcum/McGowan/Litsch. Not this time.
Thomas: That's a very good point. Not only do the Jays have a lack of options on the 40-man roster, but other non-40 man roster options in the system, such as Michael MacDonald (he's not ahead of Banks or Purcey on the depth chart right now, but who knows who's hurt or pitching poorly in June), are fine for a couple of starts, but aren't developed enough to step in on a long-term basis. If (or when) the Jays need a long-term replacement, because of an inevitable Burnett injury, a Litsch sophomore slump or something else, I think the team will have to look outside the organization for help. JP should be actively scouring the waiver wire, as I'm sure he is, during the final week of spring training given teams will be making their final cuts.
Anders: The bullpen figures to be a little shakier this year, especially with Janssen likely out the whole year, if not longer. BJ coming back will be a big help, but its a question as to whether he will be the same old BJ. Jeremy Accardo held down the fort admirably, and Scott Downs has been fantastic as well, but I would be a bit worried about him falling back down to earth. Free Jason Frasor figures to play an important part, and if Brandon League is healthy again then the Jays could have a pretty good pen. I'm optimistic.
Magpie: I'd like to announce that Jason Frasor is my new whipping boy. He has taken the place of Justin Speier in my heart. For me, he's that guy who puts up good numbers and generally pitches well... except when you actually need him to. On the other hand, Liam reports that Brandon League looks to him "like the flyin' Hawaiian of old." What you gain on the swings, you lose on the roundabout? Or something.
Anders: The pen will be worse as last year was amazing (190+ ERA+ for Accardo, Downs and Janssen). We had 6 very solid guys last year and should have even more depth this year but last year everything went right for the core 3 and you can't count on that year in year out. The one plus is we now know who the closer is, who the setup is, etc without having Gibbons wasting over a month figuring it out.
Magpie: Can they catch the ball? More or less. Shannon Stewart throws quite a bit like me, it's true - and it's nice to have a player to identify with in that way. But on the other hand - the amount of angst I've seen expressed over a left fielder's throwing arm... it's just weird. All left fielders have below average arms. That's why they're in left field. Except Yaz.
Anders: The Jays will have a top three defense in the Majors. I will wager money on this.
John Northey: Defense? Still strong but not as strong with Stairs/Stewart being worse than Lind/Johnson and McDonald likely to play less than last year (I figure Eckstein is about equal to the junk that played in non-McDonald games). Rolan vs Glaus is an improvement. Barajas vs the misc. backup catchers of last year is an improvement I suspect.
Thomas: Assuming that Rolen remains relatively healthy, the Jays will have one of the best infield defenses in the majors. He's going to be an improvement over Glaus, who was sure-handed but lacks Rolen's range. Rolen over Glaus should make up for the difference between Eckstein and McDonald. Plus, McDonald will start something like 30% of the games and replace Eckstein in the field in the late innings of many of the others.
Anders: If the Jays started McDonald at short and Reed in left every game their defense would have to be, I imagine, one of the better ones of the 2000s, if not longer. Not going to happen, obviously. But Hill, Rios, McDonald, Rolen and maybe Wells are legitimate (aka non-Derek Jeter) Glovers. Overbay is above average. Gregg Zaun is the weak link here, with his noodle arm, but seems to be fine calling games. Of course things won't work out like this exactly, as Eckstein and Stairs figure to start a bunch of games.
Magpie: Eckstein worries me, too. Well, guess we'll find out what he's got.
Thomas: I'm not as worried about Eckstein as others are. He's the weak link and likely to be the only one below average in the field, but the guy's spent his entire life figuring out how to get things done and not relying on pure talent. I remember reading minor league reports on him in the mid-90's, when he was a marginal prospect, that he couldn't play short in the majors. For all the talk of people overrating intangibles, Eckstein's a guy who has persevered and often proven people wrong. He might just do it again.
THE FORECAST
So how's it all going to pan out in the end?
Magpie: Josh Towers, picked up off the scrap heap, goes 4-0 in September and 8-1 overall as the Jays close with a late surge to improve by eight games over the previous season. Oh, wait. That already happened? That was 2003? Sorry....
Anders: The Jays have, over the past couple of years, always had enough talent to make the playoffs if things broke completely their way. Of course, that or the budget. This year things have already begun to go bad - AJ's nail, Janssen's arm, Rolen's finger - and the season hasn't even started. I hope this doesn't foreshadow an injury plagued season, because the Jays as constituted have little depth. They basically can handle injuries in left, at first and behind the plate, and maybe in the bullpen. After that, the Jays options become decreasingly bad. If AJ goes down for more than his usual 6 weeks then the staff is in trouble.
Magpie: I have no sense at all anymore about this team. None at all. They could win 73 games, they could win 93 games. And all points in between, and maybe even some beyond. I have no idea at all.I don't know what to expect. I am mystified. I am confused. I am absent any...
ALL: Oh shut up.
Matthew E: To me, this is a team that will have to fight to finish above .500. Again. And I don't know how that'll go over. Ricciardi is betting that these players can vindicate his tenure as GM, and I'm not sure what the stakes of this bet are... but I do think he's going to come out on the losing end of it.
Magpie: All righty then. Could they win a championship?
Sure.
Is it likely?
No.
But it's not likely for anyone. The deck is stacked against every team. You've got to be either very good or very fortunate or (even better) both.
They won't win like the 2007 Red Sox, by simply being so good that they could shrug off extremely disappointing seasons by both their big off-season acquisitions (the shortstop and the right fielder). Not to mention their best player being slowed by injury and turning in the weakest season of his Hall of Fame career. And they won't win like the 2006 Cardinals, either, with an ordinary team that barely squeaks into the post-season by virtue of being slightly better than the rest of a weak field. And then, once there, having otherwise ordinary pitchers suddenly rise up and pitch like all stars. That's not going to happen in this division - 84 wins doesn't get you anything in this neck of the woods. So if they do win, they'll be like the 2005 White Sox. Things will come together in new and unusual ways. Even the things that go badly will somehow wind up working out for them. You can't predict such things, and you sure can't count on them.
John Northey: Hrm. I see a team that wins more often than not but...
The big issues are Rolen's health, Thomas' offense, healthy offense from Wells/Overbay, and the kids in the rotation not regressing too far. I wouldn't be shocked to see anywhere from 85-90 wins with a 10 win window on each side. If all goes according to plan then 95+ wins and a division title are possible (above league average offense, tops in pitching). If things fall apart 4th place is possible.
I'm betting on Lind in LF by June, taking over full time by July. Marcum surprising most with a 3.00 ERA and 18 wins. Overbay showing last year was for real (sniff) and JP eating his salary in the winter. AJ getting just 20 starts and leaving anyways in the winter. A race into September after a slow start in April/May and 89 wins in 2nd place ahead of the Yankees where Mussina has a 5.75 ERA and no one in their rotation with 10+ starts has an ERA+ above 100.
Matthew E: My big problem with this team is what I take to be Ricciardi's basic assumption behind all his moves: that last year's team had the kernel of a champion and just needed a couple of tweaks to put them over the top. So he didn't make big changes; he tweaked a couple of things. Adjusted third base a bit, got a shortstop who wasn't completely embarrassing when up at bat, a little bit of this and a little bit of that in left field... but nothing major.
And it's not enough. There just aren't enough hitters here. The pitching's decent, but to take this particular collection of bats to the post-season it'd have to be a lot better than decent.
Anders: Despite pessimism, the Jay's lineup 1-9 has the potential to be good if no one gets hurt and people hit like they are supposed to. The staff promises to be even better, but with little room for injury. People around baseball are picking up on the Jays - I believe the five ESPN experts had the Jays winning between 84-90 wins, albeit settling for third. I think the Jays will finish in the same range, winning 87 games and challenging a faltering Yankees or Red Sox squad for second in the division. With a couple of lucky breaks, the Jays could win the wild card. It's not outside the realm of possibility, though if I were a betting man (and I am) I wouldn't stake the house on it. Should be a good season.
Thomas: Not surprisingly, I agree with the general consensus. It wouldn't surprise me to see the team finish with 89 or 90 wins and in second place in the AL East ahead of a Yankee team dealing with severe growing pains by a couple of young pitchers. I'd be surprised, but not shocked, by 80 wins and fourth place. But I think the most likely scenario is 86 wins and third place. Here are five barometers on which we can measure the season's chances of success. Burnett making 27 or more starts. McGowan having an ERA of 3.80 or under. Lyle Overbay putting up an OBP over .370. Vernon Wells slugging over .470. Scott Rolen playing over 110 games and slugging over .425. If they hit on four or five of these the season will go quite well and they will be in legitimate playoff contention. If they hit on only one or two I think the team is in trouble. And if, as I expect, they hit a couple, come close on a third and miss two, one by a substantial margin, they'll be on be pace for a win total in the mid-80's and October golf.
Matthew E: It's possible that enough of these guys could pile good years together that they fluke out a wild card spot, and once that happens they've got as good a chance at the Series as anybody. But it would require the Jays to do something they haven't been able to do in years.
You know how, during a baseball season, every now and then, we'll all say something about an upcoming game or series or homestand or road trip that sounds like, "If the Jays can win big in front of this huge home crowd, we may really have something. If they can sweep this series against Tampa Bay. If they can have a winning road trip. If they can seize this opportunity, they'll be in a much better position."
The Toronto Blue Jays have not seized an opportunity in years.
When presented with opportunities, they have consistently responded with their worst possible performances.
Now, there's nothing that says that that has to continue. But I have no reason to be a believer in these Jays. A hoper, yes. But not a believer.
