Great move. With a team lacking impact talent, holding on to the few they have is a great step forward.

Hopefully Lind and Snider both pan out. That would give the Jays a great set of bats moving forward.

"...And a lot of guys in the AL had big down years.

Rios should consistently be a #10 RF in MLB in terms of offensive production, but as decent as that is, I prefer to have my corner slots filled with a Left handed power bat.  There is actually a good chance that Rios could be the least productive RF in the AL East as early as next year."

Ya between him and Vern you aren't exactly mashing righties.

AR (2007) .283/.334/.468/.802

VW (2007) .226/.280/.387/.667 

VW (Career) .275/.317/.467/.784

Rios as a RF the next 2 years = mediocre deal.  Rios as a CF for the next 4 after that = Good deal.

Right. So in theory Rios to center and Wells to RF/LF?? So then Wells can be be grossly overpaid as a corner outfielder. What's the difference?

There is actually a good chance that Rios could be the least productive RF in the AL East as early as next year.

There is also a chance that he is the most productive RF in the entire American league as soon as this year.

There is also a chance that he is the most productive RF in the entire American league as soon as this year.

Wager?  There is ZERO chance he is the top RF in the AL this year.

Vernon Wells is by far among the top 3 defensive centerfielders in the AL. His 3 gold gloves prove that. Yes, there's concern about how he'll age, but he's an exceptional athlete and he reads balls off the bat better than other centerfielders. His range is so spectacular that he makes hard catches look easy.

At his position, even if he hits at his floor - ie. .270 with 25 homers, 36 doubles - he's still above average for a centerfielder. His arm is not Ichiro's but it's still pretty strong. Then, there's his potential - ie. .310avg, 35 homers, 50 doubles - that combined with his exceptional defense make him a potential MVP candidate.

As for Rios, at his floor, he'll produce  .295 avg, 25 homers, 40 doubles. His range like Wells is exceptional and his arm's a canon... there are plenty of potential doubles that are reduced to singles thanks to that arm. He still has trouble reading balls off the bat but he'll only improve.

Right now, the sky's the limit really for Rios. He's got the speed to steal a ton of bases(but stealing is more mental than speed). He's got the power to be among the league leaders in homers(his body has yet to fill out). Finally, he's got a good stroke that can make him challenge for a batting title.

I'm not saying he's going to become a triple threat but I think that he'll do very well and we'll get equal value for the $65 mil that we're spending.

Moreover, don't look at the exorbitant Wells contract... look at the $126+65= $191/13years. That's well worth the impact that these two outfielders have on our team.

PS: on a side note, I was quite displeased with the Nathan contract, the twins chose to invest $47 mil into a closer when they've already got a pretty good one in Neshek waiting in the wings. If they were smart, they should've dealt Nathan for another young starter and invested in Liriano instead! My heart cries out for the small market Twins... remember, there was a time when we were small market... can you imagine the 2002 Jays signing B.J Ryan to a $47mil deal!?

Perhaps the person who offered said contract should take this as a lesson.

Absolutely.

1) Vernon Wells is definitely, no longer "by far" one of the top 3 defensive CF'ers in the AL. His 3 gold gloves do not prove that. They prove that during those years, he was viewed by the voters as one of the best. His first 2 I think were deserved, the 3rd, certainly not.

2) CameronLS is right. Vernon and Rios should flip flop positions. Vernon has not looked nearly as good these past 2 seasons as he did the 5 before them. Rios will be better then Vernon in CF this year then Vernon would be, and if not, certainly would be the year after. Vernon, then, subsequently, would probably still be above average RF so it would be a net gain to the TO offence. And with Stairs and Stewart taking turns patrolling LF............

3) Finally, as much as I like Vernon, and I like him a fair deal, his floor, as you said Sheldon, is not .270 with 25 HR's and 36 doubles. For Vernon's floor I refer you to last year (.245/.304/.402). I know he was injured, but if you're talking worst case scenarios (which a 'floor performance' would be), the worst case for Vernon would be that shoulder injury doesn't quite go away and he is like he was last year.

But finally, I think Rios still has improvement left in him offensively for sure and probably defensively as well too. He's worth the signing, and certainly I think, a viable candidate to be one of the top 3 overall RF's in baseball next year with some modest improvement (which I'd rather refer to as growth in his case!) to a couple areas of his game.

Overall, anyway you slice it, great deal, me thinks.

Considering the age & health of  Wells and Rolen - they are what they are or were... Rios and Hill will be here a long while doing what they do...Snider coming up in 09'ish....Whoever's at shortstop and catcher are likely to be pretty moderate offensive producers...I really think the Blue Jays are going to need some major offensive talent at one or both of 1B and DH in the years to come. No Catalanotto's and Geronimo Berroa's.  And whoever's going to fill those spots, he/they are not currently in this organization. I disregard Overbay, and still wish they'd never targeted him for trade, because once they did, obviously Ricciardi's going to want to sign him longterm considering the talent he gave up to get him. Unless hes' putting up 50 plus doubles year in year out, I hope they swallow hard and upgrade there at some point. Adam Dunn would be nice.  

Adam Lind? For my money and time, he's not going to amount anything resembling someone you should consider settiling with if you're trying to create a top flight American League club. Snider, yes sir you betcha, Lind, no way. He looks like a, how do they say, a 'chit' to me. Am I way off base here?

The future at shortstop certainly does look bleak.  The Jays are fine at C (Arencibia, Collins, Thigpen, Diaz, Jeroloman), 3B post-Rolen (Ahrens, Fuenmayor, Tolisano), and 1B/DH (Lind, Chavez could be converted, Kreuzer might surprise). 

The time is this off-season to lock up a SS for 4-years or more and hope that Jackson pans out as a 23 year old in 2013.  If Burnett opts out, and a bonus would be if Thomas doesn't get his option, the Jays will have $20 million per year off the books.  Furcal, Renteria and Cabrera could be free agents this year.  Furcal, who'll be 30 years old, probably will be available since the Dodgers have a nice SS prospect in the wings.  In the meantime, the Jays need to target shortstops in the draft.

As for Lind, he'd make a fine 1B/DH.  In the minors he's averaged a .317 AVG, .378 OBP, .506 SLG (.884 OPS).  In 2006, between AA and the Majors, he hit 26 homers and 39 doubles in just 517 at-bats, and had an OPS near 1.000.  Dude can hit.  After originally demolishing ML pitching, he struggled before starting to figure it out near the end of the year.  I think that's normal, especially for a 23 year old.  Check out Baseball-Reference splits and compare to Lind to Hill.  They followed almost the exact same pattern, except that Hill was given the opportunity to battle through it while Lind will learn to adjust in AAA.  If Lind is here, he'll hit.  I expect him to prove himself in AAA this year and continue to hit over .300 and slug over .500.  The fact that he hits left-handed is a nice bonus.

I'm really not worried about the pitching either.  I know the Jays should have taken Tulowitski, but don't dismiss Romero.  He could be a good #3 starter as early as next year.  He has the makeup and the stuff, and could rebound from an off-year, which was also injury plagued.  Janssen will likely be a bullpen arm post-surgery, and I could see a rotation of Halladay, McGowan, Purcey, Marcum, Romero panning out, with Litsch still there and Cecil pounding on the door.  I remember everyone used to talk about the how terrible the Yankee's system was and then Cano and Wang came out of nowhere. 

The Jays have nobody at SS, but it's not that bad everywhere else, and I'm still a Romero believer. 

Where's MyLegacy when you need him?  It's gloomy in here.

Kudos to Jason Jackson for his 2-out RBI triple in the ninth inning, yesterday, to go with his walk. When was the last time we could use the words "triple" and "shortstop" in the same sentence? His early promise seems intact and what is more important, he can feel good about his game and have fun, too.  Scott Rolen's fickle finger of fate is Buck Coats' opportunity.

Hard to get excited about the Rios contract until it's finalized, but I give both sides full marks. Blue Jays are a Class Act.

 Obviously this doesn't 'prove' anything, but Player A is Adam Lind and Player B is Curtis Granderson, who was one of the best 10 hitting outfielders in baseball last year.

Hmmm. Those were PECOTA comp's back in 2006, yes.

Found it....ESPN reports Marcum and Burnett may not head north with the team and they both are behind in their recoveries.  My guess is that they will make their scheduled starts on time but may not go to Phily for the exhibition.

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=roberts032508

The report also says that Ryan's sore elbow is a bad sign.

ok John,

curious as to which one is the young up and comer and which isn't  (KC or Oakland).  Pretty sure Tampa is the other of the 2

Some minor league house cleaning

Toronto Blue Jays
Signed: OF Chad Mottola
Released: RHP Gary Lee, RHP Adam Rogers, RHP Russ Savickas, RHP Aaron Tressler, RHP Orlando Trias, LHP Ryan Ketchner, LHP Chris Reddout, 2B Carlo Cota, OF Ben Zeskind
Optioned to Triple-A: LHP Bill Murphy

Do you really want to be the one who bets against a last minute announcement from JP to the effect of "Marcum and Burnett to start season on DL?" Ah... it just wouldn't be spring without the constant possibility of a JP 'injury-gate' situation to rile up Jays fans and reporters alike. That said, I expect both to make their expected starts.

There's a nice up to date preview of the Jays at ESPN, and it looks promising.  I think that Thomas' numbers will be a little worse and Rolen's numbers will be better, but other than that I'd agree with the predictions, more or less.  On the pitching side, I don't see Marcum finishing with an ERA that's better than both Burnett and McGowan, but I guess we'll see. 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview08/team?team=tor

Wilner has the scoop, and get off the ledge boys because it was just a misunderstanding.

" When we were all scrumming J.P. Monday night in Sarasota to get the latest on Scott Rolen’s finger surgery, the G.M. mentioned that Burnett and Marcum wouldn’t accompany the team to Philadelphia for those last two pre-season games Friday night and Saturday.  The ESPN reporter (none of us knew who he was) heard J.P. say they weren’t going to be “coming north to Philly” and must have assumed that the fingernail thing and last year’s Marcum knee surgery were going to hold them back, which couldn’t be further from the truth."

Jesse also hit Jerry Hairston Jr. with a pitch.

In that ESPN link Timpinder posted a bunch of writers predict the Jays record. All have them finishing in third.

Stark, Kurkjian, Olney, Law, and Phillips have them winning 84, 86, 90(!), 86 and 88 wins respectively.

Jeff Passan also named McGowan as his dark horse candidate for the Cy.

Those ESPN writers will be proven wrong (except Olney was pretty close).  Wells is stinging the ball and is back.  Overbay is back.  Rolen is (was) back and won't be out long, and Thomas just hit a homerun.  Eckstein is finally hitting and Rios should turn it on soon.  This team is being underestimated.  I haven't been this optimistic in a decade and a half.  It seems everyone is remembering the offense of 2007 and not 2006.  Overbay, Wells and Rolen are just as likely, if not more likely, to repeat 2006 as they are 2007.

I can't wail until Monday.

Last year Overbay was pretty mediocre hitting in the second spot last year. In fact, I recall an article where he was quoted as saying something along the lines of "hitting second really changed my approach and was a big deal". I'd be inclined to put Overbay where he is most comfortable, at least to start the season.

Also, definitely not a fan of batting Vernon in the cleanup. I'd like to see Thomas there, Overbay behind him and Wells following. You can also avoid some double plays if you have Vernon hitting in front of Hill.

I don't mind Wells hitting cleanup against lefties.  Against righties though, if Gibbons must have Eckstein-Rios-Wells at the top of the order, I'd bat Stairs cleanup.  It breaks up the lefties and moves Frank to the 5th spot until he proves he's can still bop:

Eckstein
Rios
Wells
Stairs
Thomas
Overbay
Hill
Zaun
Scutaro