Note: The Juan Gonzalez link goes to the Granderson story. It's like the internet itself was in such disbelief over Juan Gonzales making yet another come back, in the NL yet, that it refused to go along with it. Is it wrong that I found his last attempt, where he injured himself, if I recall correctly, running on the first ground ball of the year, so funny? Because even if it is, I don't apologize.

Granderson seems like  a steal at that rate, he seems to be an above average fielder at a premium position, plus an above average hitter. 5 years is a lot, and the amount reflects his arbitration years and one or two (?) free agency years (he'd be getting a lot more as a free agent, obviously), but it does cover his "traditional" peak seasons, and they will be well positioned to cut bait on him if his skills are declining rapidly in his early 30's. One last note: the 20-20-20-20 (HR, 3B, 2B, SB) thing Granderson and Rollins managed is kind of cool, but wasn't it extremely weird that two guys managed it last year, doubling the historic total? It's a totally made-up milestone, but I found that very strange, considering 20 trtiples is a fairly rare event on its own. Reyes and possibly Crawford have also come extremely close in recent years.

The Freddy Sanchez deal is a typically bad Pittsburgh signing, at first glance. Sanchez is in his 30's now, and second basemen don't typically age well. But if he maintains his current level of play, it's a good deal. Maybe they're trying to keep Bay happy? I'm not saying it won't work out, but the mere fact the Pirates are involved seems to curse most multi-year deals.

Maybe Bedard will sign with the Jays as a free agent in days of future ...

I always did love that album. A video of the Moody Blues performing Tuesday Afternoon in a smoky 1970s nightclub.

Granderson seems like  a steal at that rate, he seems to be an above average fielder at a premium position, plus an above average hitter.

I don't necessarily dispute any of what you've said, but I am surprised to discover that 2008 will be Granderson's age-27 season. He has the very opposite of "old player" skills so figures to be less likely to implode in his early 30's.

After his huge leap in OPS+ from 98 to 136, it will be interesting to see how much of that gain he retains. He had a tremendously underrated 2007 (in the same ballpark, not literally, as Vernon Wells' two best seasons).

40% 3 to 4 years less a day
60% 4 to 5 years less a day
80% 5 to 6 years less a day

40% 3 to 4 years less a day
60% 4 to 5 years less a day
80% 5 to 6 years less a day

I recall Jody Reed doing himself a grave disservice one off-season in the early 90s. I think he turned down a fairly lucrative deal from his team at the time (Dodgers?) and ended up settling for something like one-tenth the offer. Memories fail, of course.

I felt guilty about taking the lazy way out, so I looked it up.  Reed turned down a three-year $8 million contract with the Dodgers, then signed with Milwaukee for $300,000. Baseball Reference says he earned more that year -- probably through performance incentives.

There is no point in paying someone a CF premium to not play CF for this jays team.   Not to mention another right handed bat.

I'll be quite happy when Rios is not a Jay anymore.  This is not to say that Rios isn't a solid player... because he is, just a square peg trying to fit in a round hole on this team.  Hopefully the Left handed power of Adam Lind/Travis Snider are ready to rock, so this discussion will be over.

Chuck,

After his huge leap in OPS+ from 98 to 136, it will be interesting to see how much of that gain he retains. He had a tremendously underrated 2007 (in the same ballpark, not literally, as Vernon Wells' two best seasons).

Actually, Granderson's EqA last season (.301) was better than Vernon's best (.295 in 2003), and by all measures I've seen, Granderson has been a significantly above average defensive CF his whole career, while Vernon is somewhat below average. Look, I love Vernon as much as the next Jays fan, but giving so much money and so many years to a guy with two good (i.e. significantly above average offensively) years on his resume out of five (at the time) complete seasons was ridiculous then, and looks even worse after a 2007 performance which, injury-hampered though it may have been, was subpar in every regard. The Granderson contract only serves to illustrate the differences an all-world GM like Dombrowski and, well, JP.

Caramon,

I'll be quite happy when Rios is not a Jay anymore.  This is not to say that Rios isn't a solid player... because he is, just a square peg trying to fit in a round hole on this team.  Hopefully the Left handed power of Adam Lind/Travis Snider are ready to rock, so this discussion will be over.

Really? I'd rather have as many good players on the team as possible. Rios' splits are significant but not exactly horrible (.797 OPS against RHP over 2005-2007 versus .844 against LHP).There are several RHB that will be departing over the next year or so, so that certainly shouldn't be an impediment to keeping Rios. Incidentally, Rios has contributed more cumulative WARP over the past three season than, say, Vernon (13.7 to 11.5, while playing fewer games), and personally I feel much more confident in Rios' value going forward than Wells'. 

I would have no problem with signing Rios for 5 years and anything under, say, $55-60 million. I'm not totally sold on Lind yet, and Snider, as great as it presently seems he will become, is only 20 years old and played in A ball last season; a lot of funny things can happen between there and the big leagues. At worst (unless Rios falls off a cliff), such a contract should be extremely reasonable, and therefore tradeable, by the time Lind and Snider are both ready.

Lee, I'm with on Snider. Yes, he's still too young to project. Lind's minor league track record is all well and good but until he does so at the major league level, you can't bank on him becoming an everyday major leaguer.

I find it weird that there are those who would rather peg their hopes on Lind/Snider than lock up Rios who has already shown us tremendous results with the talent to surpass those results.

Anyway, what I do disagree, Lee, with is that  Vernon Wells is below average defensively. I personally think he's the best out there! Yes, Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter make the highlight reels but I argue that that's because they've got better showmanship as they often dive and make plays look spectacular. Hunter often dives for balls that he needn't necessarily dive for and it makes for great TV.

But Vernon Wells is a different animal. He's got as good range as either Jones or Hunter. He reads the balls off the bat extremely well and as a result, he gets to balls that would usually be doubles in the gaps. He's far from average and not on the side of average that you think. He's way above average!

There is little doubt that Vernon is an above average defensive CF, but he's average or below offensively, which people don't seem to be willing to accept. I was at the state of the franchise last night and made the point to JP that Wells' offensive production is comparable to Xavier Nady when you look at triple slash stats. I won't get into comparisons of RBI's and such because they hit in different ballparks and different lineups (and different spots in those lineups) but by triple/ they are pretty similar.

The other issue with Wells is his size. He's not a small boy, and as he ages I would be surprised if he can remain in CF. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the corner OF by year 4 or 5 of his contract, and while his offense is ok for a CF, its below average for corner OF.

So we're going to be paying through the teeth for below average offense in a corner outfielder by the end of the contract.

Brutal.

Sheldon,

I find it weird that there are those who would rather peg their hopes on Lind/Snider than lock up Rios who has already shown us tremendous results with the talent to surpass those results.

Couldn't have said it better. Personally, I think it is part of the trend which has emerged over the last couple of years of hardcore baseball fans becoming absolutely enamored with their team's prospects. At some point, you have to look at performance instead of projection.

But Vernon Wells is a different animal. He's got as good range as either Jones or Hunter. He reads the balls off the bat extremely well and as a result, he gets to balls that would usually be doubles in the gaps. He's far from average and not on the side of average that you think. He's way above average!

I'm still open to consideration on the subject of Vernon's defense, hence, I prefaced my statement with the caveat "by all measures I've seen," i.e., by defensive metrics. According to Fielding Runs, Vernon was an at least marginally below-average defensive CF in every full season except 2004. He also ranked last in the AL in Range Factor for a CF  in 2007 (2.29, with Coco Crisp leading the way at 3.07 and Granderson close behind) and 2006, and was second to last in 2005. He has done much better by Zone Rating, however. Admittedly, I don't see any major problems with his defensive subjectively, and defensive stats are still rudimentary and relatively unreliable. So, while Vernon's consistently horrible showings in FR and RF leave me concerned that his defense is costing the team more runs than appears to be the case subjectively, I will concede that I can't come close to saying definitively that he is a bad defender.

So we're going to be paying through the teeth for below average offense in a corner outfielder by the end of the contract.

Brutal.

Yup, that's about the size of it. I can think of several ways that Vernon's money could be better spent to make this team a legitimate contender (and even moreso at the time the contract was signed), both now and in the future. Like I said, Vernon seems to be a great guy who I like to watch, but paying a premium for a "face of the franchise" (or some such nonsense) with somewhat marginal actual performance is a horrible misstep for a team trying to compete with MLB's two richest franchises.

If Lind can give us Rios from 2006 & 2007 then I think he's a win. Not every player has to be a star, and if you can get good production from guys who are cheap and under control more power to you.

Anecdotally, I think Lind's defense is better than people give him credit for. I've watched him in LF and he makes good reads on balls and usually takes a good jump. I've seen him make some pretty nice looking diving catches as well. He might lack the defensive wizardry of Sparky in LF, but I would actually guess he's slightly above average in his glovework and instincts.

Not sure about range though. Anyone know how his Zone Rating looks?

I don't mind relying on projection of a player, but isn't Lind's upside offensively pretty much what Rios put up the last 2 years (not to mention a big difference in defensive value)?

Lind's 2007 five-year PECOTA projections were for an EqA in the range of .280 to .290 over 2007-2011. So before last season, lind's 50th percentile projections were, overall, roughly what Rios had produced in 2006, while Rios himself was projected for a bit of a regression. Given that Rios stayed roughly steady in 2007 and Lind took a big step back from his minor league and September '06 MLB performance, however, I would expect the projections to change significantly in favor of Rios.

I can't remember which Harball Times article that talked about the defensive metrics (to link it), but the conclusion the author came to was that good defenders in large parks scored better than good defenders in small parks. Poor fielders in small parks also fared better by the numbers, too. For example, Rios is a good defender and may suck up more fly ball opportunities for Vernon is the logic behind this. Also, Vernon may not be able to go as far in a smaller park than Comerica to catch baseballs. I wouldn't take the stats too seriously for Vernon as of yet.