<i>One of the big reasons why I have no faith in the S/J platoon is that Gibbons has consistently shown that he doesn't know how to use a strict platoon.</i>

Really??  I always thought this was one of his strong points.  I thought his handling of the Johnson/Cat platoon was marvelous and I can't think of any other strict platoons.  There was Rios/Hinske for about a month before Rios emerged.  Were there others I'm forgetting?

The roster does look pretty much set at this point in terms of position players and I'm hopeful that Thigpen will start the year in Toronto with Fasano at Syracuse as injury depth and a backup to Diaz.  I'd like to see Diaz play regularly looking ahead to a possible Zaunless 2009.

I also like the depth in our infield with Scutaro and Johnny Vac as backups and depth with Adams, Olmedo and Inglett at Syracuse.  I didn't think last years depth of Howie Clark, John Hattig, and Ryan Roberts provided much security. 

As for pitching, with Litsch as the 5th starter, keeping Randy Wells as a Rule 5 condition will affect one of Wolfe, League or Tallett.  Problem solved, howver, if Janssen moves into the rotation and Litsch starts the year in Syracuse with Chacin.

I thought his handling of the Johnson/Cat platoon was marvelous

I agree. But, the situation may be slightly different this time around. Johnson entered 2007 as the incumbent fulltime LF so there's a seemingly widely held concern (unless my spidey senses are off) that he may be given the opportunity to regain that status in 2008, having lost it due to injury. Or, at the very least, that he'll be in a 50/50 job share with Stairs which would mean that he'd still face more RHP than is palatable.

Unless I have entirely misread this, I don't see Stairs/Johnson as analagous to Catalanotto/Johnson, at least not right away.

I expect Stairs to start against righthanded pitching and Johnson to start against lefthanded pitching, with Johnson getting added time as a defensive replacement, just like the 2006 Johnson/Catalanotto platoon.  If that's the case, then it should be a very effective platoon.  Lind will get a chance since injuries happen, and if he's demolishing AAA pitching the Jays will have to find a spot for him one way or another.

As for the roster, I don't see League returning to form but I still expect a bullpen of Ryan (at least by May), Accardo, Downs, Frasor, Wolfe, Tallet, League.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Purcey in the bullpen by the end of May, though.  Originally I had Janssen in the rotation and Litsch in the pen, but Magpie's probably right that the Jays will keep Litsch starting in AAA so that he's ready to replace the first injured starter.  The only change in the roster I'd like to see is Thigpen instead of Fasano.  It sounds like the Jays are making a play for another catcher, though, so we'll see.

As it stands now, the rotation looks very good and the bullpen looks above average - very good depending on Ryan's health.  The lineup is vicious against lefthanders and with the additions of Eckstein and Rolen, a strict platoon of Stairs/Johnson and the return of a healthy Overbay, the lineup should be much improved and quite solid against righthanders.  With the great defense, including the late inning defensive options of McDonald and Johnson, this is a contending team that you could argue is the third - sixth best team in the AL.  It's going to be a great race, let the wild ruckus begin!

I expect Stairs to start against righthanded pitching and Johnson to start against lefthanded pitching, with Johnson getting added time as a defensive replacement, just like the 2006 Johnson/Catalanotto platoon.  If that's the case, then it should be a very effective platoon.

Ding Ding Ding.  If this is how it is handled this will be one of the more productive corner positions and combined will likely demolish number set by either Rios/Wells in terms of combined production at the position.  Hopefully Gibby has learned this off season no to mess around with Stairs.  Never, ever should your best hitter vs. RHP be leading off a game vs. RHP or batting 2nd.

The biggest concern for me this year is not who gets the extra spots, but who ends up batting in what order through the year - is Wells going to earn his cleanup/#3 Role, or will he be batting #7 or #8 like he should to beginthe year, or could we have a possible sinkhole at that spot, sabotaging the lineup each night?

Purcey starting the season on the MLB roster is wishful thinking, I imagine. Dick Scott, director of player development, has said Purcey may begin the year in Double-A, where he pitched last year until getting injured. There is a chance that he could begin in Triple-A if he has a strong spring... but the MLB seems like a stretch.

I don't want to see Wells(who's career line is very good for centerfielders...even his worst season (probably '05) makes his bat very good) robbed of at-bats.

First off, I can't see any argument for any season other than 2007 as being his worst.

Second, I think you may be overestimating the man's bat. He's had two very good offensive seasons, three where he's been slightly below or slightly above league average and last year's clinker. His OPS+ from 2002 to 2007: 96, 132, 105, 104, 129, 85. For his career, he's at 108.

Now, if he can provide a 100 OPS+ and play gold glove defense, well, you've got yourself a valuable player. But unless he can repeat his 2003 or 2006 numbers, this is not someone with an inalienable right to lay claim to the heart of the batting order.

The Chicago Tribune has a ringing endorsement for the acquisition of Rolen, giving the advantage to the Blue Jays.  It will be pretty exciting IF Rolen returns to form.

"Rolen is one of the best ballplayers in the major leagues and Glaus is a streaky hitter capable of carrying his team for a month every season. Rolen was a foundation player with his teams in Philadelphia and St. Louis; Glaus, who at the time faced major issues with his back, wasn't offered a chance to stay in Anaheim after 2004, when he reached free agency, and now Arizona and Toronto have traded him in a two-year stretch"

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-080119rogersinside,1,3763531.column?coll=cs_tab01_whitesox_layout

With respect to the lineup I thought I read not too long ago that Gibbons plans on hitting Rios and Wells back to back.  If so, then I can imagine Wells hitting #2 and Rios #3.  I hope not.

Isn't speed most useful in front of singles/groundball/hacker hitters who put the ball in play a lot and don't walk much?

Alex, Bill James said as much 25 years ago and yet lineups continue to be constructed so that speedy runners bat in front of homerun hitters and not singles hitters, where their speed can best be leveraged. The one exception we sometimes see is the use of a speedy guy in the 9th hole. who can use his speed in front of the top of the order.

On paper, I like Wells batting 7th (againt RHP, anyway), as some have suggested. I just don't see that happening to the team's highest paid player.

Based on the comments made by Ricciardi and Gibbons, I imagine the lineup will be similar to Eckstein-Wells-Rios-Thomas-Rolen-Overbay-Hill-Stairs-Zaun

Timpinder, I don't see Gibbons hitting lefties in three of the last four spots.  I definately don't see him hitting lefties back to back.  But from JP's comments, which I also remember reading, I do see Rios and Wells up at the top hitting back to back.  Against righties I think it makes the most amount of sense to have an order like: Eckstein,Rios,Wells,Overbay,Thomas,Stairs,Rolen,Hill,Zaun (or flip Wells and Rios if we have the 2006 Wells, also maybe flip Overbay and Stairs depending on which Overbay we see). 

Everytime I try and construct a lineup, I always have problems due to Thomas.  A large part of me wishes the Jays never signed him and instead had a more veritile hitting power hitting OF (i.e.2008 Lind) that could be rotated through the OF.  Actually would there be much oppositon to JP trading Thomas for a servicable bench player and a decent #3 starter?  If he did we could split the OF/DH/1B duties between Lind,Johnson, Overbay(1B only), and Stairs.  This would smash righthanded pitching - just a thought.  The biggest problem ofcourse if finding an AL team thinking they are playoff worthy and in need of a DH and willing to pay his salary.  Here are some possibilities:

Thomas to Seattle for Vidro and Jeff Weaver (or a good prospect instead of Weaver that we could flip for a #4 starter).  Vidro is owed $8.5 million this year and becomes a free agent after this year - he is a switch hitting DH who also played a handful of games at 2B and 1B.

Thomas to Texas.  Texas has Botts pencilled in as the starting DH which is why Rotoworld reported yesterday that they have some interest in Sosa.  I think they make the most sense from a match of where to send Thomas.  Question is who to get back.  Would they be willing to move McCarthy and Byrd?

Thomas to KC for Teahan and De La Rosa (or maybe Teahan straight up).  They have Mike Sweeney as their starting DH.

Thomas to Minesotta.  Their starting DH is Rondell White.  Don't know what to get in return.

Thoughts?

melondough,

I certainly don't think that the batting order I posted was the best way to balance out the lineup, I just think that's how Gibbons is going to do it.  He said that Eckstein will be leading off and that he'd like Wells and Rios to hit back-to-back in front of Thomas who he's said will be his his cleanup hitter.  Based on those comments, there's your first four hitters.  As for having three lefthanded hitters at the bottom of the order, Zaun may be a switch hitter, but he's much better hitting righthanded and has a career OPS of .726 hitting lefthanded against RHP, so I would still like to see him hit at the bottom of the order against righties.  Rolen has pretty even splits, so if Overbay's not going to be hitting higher in the lineup against RHP then I'd at least like to see Rolen moved up.  We'll see how it plays out, I just think that Gibbons is stubborn and will have Eckstein leading off, Thomas hitting cleanup, and Wells in the second or third spot, stats and opposition pitching be damned.

Thomas to Seattle for Vidro and Jeff Weaver

Ha! Did you just wake up from a coma? It isn't 2002 any more - these players are now quite lousy. Weaver posted a 1.53 WHIP last year, and struck out 4.7 per 9IP.

Vidro put up the same OBP as Thomas last year and slugged a paltry .394 in the DH spot.

Thomas to KC for Teahan and De La Rosa

Other than getting rid of De La Rosa, why would the Royals ever make that deal?

batting Wells 7th or 8th is a ridiculous proposition...something akin to Torre batting A-Rod 8th in the playoffs a couple of years ago.
Like it or not, Wells is our franchise player... not because we're paying him $126 mil for the next 7 years but because he's a legitimate number 3 hitter and his Gold Glove capabilities are something you build teams around. Don't go out there and insult him by putting him in the 7th spot. Look at his career(multiple Gold Gloves, Silver Slugger), he's earned the number 3 spot.

For radical strategic reasons, I would bat him number 2 but the world is not ready for such innovation(btw, Swisher batted in the 2 spot alot the past couple of years).

Wells simply doesn't have the numbers to bat higher than 7th for now vs RHP.

Wells hit .226/.280/.387 vs. RHP, which was the worst of any starter other than Jmac vs. them.  Career = .269/.315/.462.  Those numbers don't scream number 3/4 hitter, in fact, they scream to keep him as far away from that spot as you can imagine.  He hasn't earned the spot I'm afraid.  Vs. Lefties, sure, but not vs. RHP.  There comes a time where you need to choose:  Sooth someone's ego or win.  It appears you've chosen the former.  Batting someone #2 with such a poor OBP is an even worse Idea. 

The lineup is much improved against RHP.  The following is a possible lineup with my estimate of the more likely of career or 2007 splits versus righties.  The additions of Eckstein and Rolen, a strict platoon with Stairs facing righties instead of Johnson, and Overbay's return to form help make the Jays' lineup at least average against RHP.

Lineup vs. RHP:
                                                      Position    Bats        AVG        OBP        OPS

1. Eckstein               SS             R              .288         .350         .706

2. Overbay               1B            L              .283         .376         .831

3. Rios                     RF            R              .283         .334         .802 (2007)

4. Stairs                    LF            L              .273         .365         .867

5. Thomas                DH           R              .259         .360         .796 (2007)

6. Rolen                   3B            R              .284         .361         .865

7. Wells                   CF            R              .269         .315         .777

8. Hill                      2B            R              .281         .332         .729
9. Zaun                    C              S              .246         .338         .726

There comes a time where you need to choose:  Sooth someone's ego or win. 

FWIW, there's no evidence that VW needs his ego soothed. As far as we know he'd be happy to hit anywhere. For my part, I just hope he can post a 300+ OBP this year to go along with his average-ish defence. That's worth about $17M, right?

sorry, a little off topic but on ESPN.com there is a chat wrap with Jerry Crasnick up:

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=18881

Thanks Seamus.  That was a pretty uplifting read.  It seems that a lot of fans around baseball have taken note that the Jays have great defense, excellent pitching, and a team with a few breakout candidates after being decimated by injury last year.  I am a bit surprised Jerry made no mention of Marcum or McGowan when asked about the best young pitching in the AL East.  Oh well...can't win 'em all.  Those that need a pick-me-up should take scroll though it.