Im suprised at the Downs signing, but he did have a great year and deserved it. I dont know if he will be able to repeat what he did last year consistantly, but pitching is important and he is a valuable lefty.

One guy im wondering about is Davis Romero, he is another lefty that should be ready sometime this year. (anyone have information on his rehab from shoulder surgury?) He looked pretty good in his 2006 audition. I really like the depth of the pitching this year.  There are 7 starters who have some quality Major League experience, and a slew of releivers. If Leauge can return to form that would give us 3 potential closers on the roster. I dont think any team can say they have that?

• Linebrick - 4 years, $19 million
• Mahay - 2 years, $8 million
• Riske - 3 years, $13 million
• Vizcaino - 2 years, $7.5 million

As a RP
2006: 2.77 ERA, 61.2 IP, 44 H, 24 BB, 51 K, 6 HR
2007: 2.17 ERA, 58.0 IP, 47 H, 24 BB, 57 K, 3 HR

I'd prefer if he threw more innings, but otherwise, his performance doesn't seem questionable moving forward. He's still a movable asset should someone better present himself. I'm not as confident about Purcey, Chacin, Tallet, and/or D. Romero being able to easily replace Downs as some people here seem to be, but if that should happen, then simply trade Downs for something useful. Unless he gets hurt or completely falls off the map, he's going to have value.

One factor in the Downs signing may be AJ's likely departure after 2008. I think JP wants Janssen in the rotation, which creates a vacancy in the late-innings department--which could belong to Downs-Accardo-BJ in 2009.

2) Downs selectively pitches to hitters that he has an advantage over (lefties) more than any other pitcher on the Jays.  Hence his numbers should be better than others who don't have this advantage (but yet LOOGYs are still typically compared to 'league average' or whatever without acknowledging this issue).

That's not true. In 2007, RHB had 101 AB (113 PA) against him while LHB had 110 AB (126 PA) against him. His opponent's OPS was .639 (RHB) and .548 (LHB). So while it appeared that he was just a LOOGY, he did have his share of outings against RHB, and he did well against them. The reason why his innings are low is because he did have occasions where he only faced a lefty and departed, but that doesn't mean he's helpless against righties.

In 2006, he had more appearances against RHB than against LHB, but that's probably because he started 5 games. He was really bad as a starter, so that may have skewed his LH/RH splits, but he wasn't awful against RHB (.762 opponent's OPS). That figure is probably lower if you only look at his relief work.

Is he an elite lefty reliever? No. But he got market value for buying out his first two FA years, and he's still an asset (unless his arm and/or performance falls off). If the plan is to win now, then losing him for draft picks and replacing him with uncertainty is not the way to do it. If the Jays were rebuilding, then obviously it's a no brainer (lose him for picks).

      I don't think it's fair to put Downs in the category of an ordinary middle-reliever.  He has shown that he can handle several different roles, and he's been very consistent and flexible.  He can be a spot starter (although he hasn't been used that way for a couple of years).  He can be a LOOGY.  He can stretch out for an inning or two innings (if he's not being held back for the LOOGY role).    And he's been remarkably consistent for the past three seasons.  For all of those reasons, he deserves a three-year contract.   What is the risk?  That he might fall apart?  Unlikely.  That he might deteriorate to the point where he is a waste of money in the 3rd year of his contract?  Not very likely.  I think Ricciardi realizes that the Jays bullpen is a major strength of the team as currently constituted, and he wants to preserve that.   Moreover, as others have noted, Janssen might be moved to the starting rotation (possibly as early as 2008), which would further heighten the importance of locking in Downs.   And then there's the possibility that Ryan and League might not rebound to 2006 levels.   Downs might end up being the second or third most important reliever in the bullpen. 

The contract isn't out of line with the ones that Pistol noted. That is how I know it's insane.

It's like GMs have no memory at all. You picked up Scott Downs for nothing. If he leaves, you find another Scott Downs.

If the Blue Jays farm system can't produce someone to do what Downs provides then you've got a bigger problem then who your lefty in the bullpen is.

I would have been happier with a two year deal for the reasons (draft picks, danger of bad year) mentioned above.  I think he also becomes less important with a healthy BJ Ryan (which hopefully will occur in June).

On the other hand, JP should not have much trouble trading that contract at a trade deadline for a prospect.

The nice thing about Downs is that he seems to be one of those guys with a rubber arm.  He made 81 apearances last year and you have to expect he got up in the pen another 20+ times.  Thats a lot of work in this day and age.  He also seems to be able to go longer or start if need be without much stretching out. 

He is not really a LOOGY either.  While I would guess he was protected against some of the tougher RH hitters, the # of IP and his splits were pretty even between LH and RH hitters.

Was Ligtenberg a 2-year deal? [...] He completely fell apart after a string of reasonable years

An all too frequent commentary on seemingly reliable relievers. There's nothing to say that Downs will crash and burn. But there's also nothing to say that he's money in the bank to stay at his current level. Optimism is natural on the heels of success (hey Vernon, want $120M?). But GMs do need to sometimes step back and make cold, sober judgements based on the bigger picture. Long-term deals for relievers result in buyer's remorse a great deal of the time.

   Why are we so parsimonious with the money of our billionaire owner?  There's no evidence that the Jays are operating under some kind of tightly limited payroll that cannot afford to pay a reasonable salary to one of the team's top relievers.   Is there a better free-agent reliever who is available for $2-million this year?   Do we really think that $4-million paid to Scott Downs in 2010 will prevent the Jays from doing something else worthwhile in 2010?   If the Jays had an extra $4-million in their payroll right now, for example, it wouldn't help them very much because there just aren't very many available players on the market who would justify a $4-milllion expenditure. 

     Everything in the payroll behavior of Ted Rogers so far suggests that he will find the money for worthwhile signings, and he won't be deterred by the existence of past contracts.  The fact that he was paying money to Hinske and Koskie did not prevent him from finding new money for Vernon Wells last year -- and I think it's pretty certain that Scott Downs is a smarter contract than the money given to Hinske and Koskie.    Even if Downs deteriorates in the 3rd year of his contract -- which I think is unlikely, but obviously it could happen -- I still think the three-year commitment will have been worthwhile.   There's a big difference between the performance of a Scott Downs and the performance of a Brian Tallet or any bargain-basement reliever who can be picked up from the minor leagues for nothing.

All while continuing to ignore Frasor who has nearly identical career #s against lefties as Downs.

Well, last year, Frasor had a 8.39 ERA in 24.2 IP vs LH and a 1.67 ERA  in 32.1 IP vs RH.  Fraser has essentially become a ROOGY.  As well, if  Wolfe duplicates his numbers from last year, he will be a better and cheaper version of Frasor.  Unless he can put a wrinkle in that straight fastball of his, I don't expect Jason will be on the team after this year.  This in turn may increase the importance of Downs.

Initially, 3 years and the money seems like a lot vs lettign him walk next year and gettign the compensation picks.  Then i thought about it in the context of the rest of the bullpen:

Lets look at the lefties first:

Ryan - when will he be back, and will he be the same?

Tallet - walks too many, not much to indicate his performance will improve over a mediocre couple of seasons.

The rest - Purcey, Romero (x2), etc - TNSTAAPP - no sure things there.

And teh righties:

Accardo - future star closer or 1/2 fluke season?  From what i've seen, I don't think he's the next BJ Ryan or Tom Henke.

Janssen - future might be in the rotation?

Wolfe - 1 great season from out of nowhere - hardly a sure thing to repeat.

Fraser - I like him, but JP deosn't, and he's likely to be dealt.

League - until he gets the velocity back, which may never happen, he hasn't shown he can be more then a mop up guy at AAA.

Others - all unproven or "AAAA" depth.

So, in this context, Downs is probably the most proven guy in the jays pullpen right now.  3 years is not too bad - best case scenario - Purcey and one of the Romero's push for the spot in a year or so, then the jays will have a great trading chip and/or depth.  Most likely case scenario, the jays will for the next three years have a need for a solid lefty out of the pen who can occasionally spot start if needed (even though it likely wont be needed in 2008).

and we may still get the supplimentals 3 years from now too....

Chuck, re: Frasor's ERA splits,

Your question is a good one and one I am embarrassed to have not asked myself.  As usual Mike sorted me out.  Here is the link from the Official site.  As it is Official it cannot be disputed, can it?  :-)

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?c_id=tor&playerID=430630&statType=2

Chuck, re: Frasor's ERA splits,

Your question is a good one and one I am embarrassed to have not asked myself.  As usual Mike sorted me out.  Here is the link from the Official site.  As it is Official it cannot be disputed, can it?  :-)

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?c_id=tor&playerID=430630&statType=2

Regardless, I think the OPS for each side and peripherals are much more insightful than ERA/runs.

The Blue Jays and Rios are about 1.3 million apart in what they submitted for arbitration figures.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080116&content_id=2347449&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

I can't imagine that there's any chance that this goes to a hearing.

Meanwhile, Wilners latest blog seems to suggest that he thinks a multi-year deal is for Rios is forthcoming.

http://blog.rogersradiointernet.com/mikewilner/

<i>The Blue Jays got plenty of homework done on Thursday night, settling up with five of their six remaining arbitration-eligibles, and a multi-year deal with Alex Rios (and maybe Aaron Hill, too!) is still to come.<i>

Apparantly Downs was "shocked" by the 3 year - $10 million offer.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-01-18-1225240803_x.htm

BTW, anybody have the team payroll numbers for 2008 (assuming Rios gets $5million which is about half way between his asking price and what is being offered)?

Mike Harmon of Fox Sports just posted his top 2B in baseball list.  Hill comes in at #7 behind Kinsler, Cano, Roberts, Phillips,  Upton, and #1 Utley.  I would have to research the numbers to give my opinion but being ranked #7 aint bad considering that this list was created for roto pool pruposes.  Once defense is taken into account, Hill would have to move up in the ranking.  I mean how many secondbaseman around baseball would you trade HIll straight up for (factoring in age and salary)?

Here is a tidbit of what Mike had to say:

"Jays are a team to watch this season, both in the real world and in the fantasy realm. The batting order was already stacked, but will be even more potent with the additions of Scott Rolen (assuming a full season of health) and a fully healthy Lyle Overbay. Toronto allowed Hill to learn on the job, and this 25-year-old budding star will take another step forward in 2008."

I like the "really stacked" part because we all know the pitching is there.  If the hitting clicks watch out!

Here is the link: http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/story/7687628

Left-handed hitters batted .245/.348/.372 last year off Frasor.  That's hardly ROOGY material.

Given the grotesque ERA that Ducey quoted, I didn't think to check the splits myself and just assumed that Frasor had an unusually skewed year (after a reverse skew career of handling LHB better than RHB). And we all know what happens when you assume. Something about asses and ewes and meece (and likely hefalumps as well).

As for the ERA splits, well, that business is just nonsense.

Jeff Blair also seems confident that Rios will be signing multi-year deal shortly:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/baseball

I like the Downs contract.  If he is anywhere near good enough in 2008 to get ranked as an 'A' free agent by Elias, he'll seem like a steal at $8 million over the next two years.  What we lose in draft possibilities we will make up for in trade value.  Not to mention his value to the team as a quality late inning reliever.  Better to sign him now than to realize we need him in October and pay twice as much with a longer term.  It looks like a calculated risk.

Sometimes I think people are too locked into prospect lists and potential.  Scott Downs is already a quality major leaguer.  Our #2 prospect, Brett Cecil, would do well to ever have a season like Downs did last year. 

Sometimes I think people are too locked into prospect lists and potential.  Scott Downs is already a quality major leaguer.  Our #2 prospect, Brett Cecil, would do well to ever have a season like Downs did last year. 

 Well put.

I like the Downs contract.  If he is anywhere near good enough in 2008 to get ranked as an 'A' free agent by Elias, he'll seem like a steal at $8 million over the next two years.  What we lose in draft possibilities we will make up for in trade value.  Not to mention his value to the team as a quality late inning reliever.  Better to sign him now than to realize we need him in October and pay twice as much with a longer term.  It looks like a calculated risk.

Sometimes I think people are too locked into prospect lists and potential.  Scott Downs is already a quality major leaguer.  Our #2 prospect, Brett Cecil, would do well to ever have a season like Downs did last year.